Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary) Executive Summary Publication Date: October 30, 2002
Authors Thomas Topolinski Chad Eschinger Pranav Kumar This document has been published to the following Cluster codes: SOFT-WW-EX-0071 For More Information... In North America and Latin America: +1-203-316-1111 In Europe, the Middle East and Africa: +44-1784-268819 In Asia/Pacific: +61-7-3405-2582 In Japan: +81-3-3481-3670 Worldwide via gartner.com: www.gartner.com Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. 111088
Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary) Growth Statistics The CRM application software market is undergoing a major transition. Masked by dramatic economic downturns, the market is also undergoing other unrelated changes. Buyer behavioral alterations and awareness that CRM is not an entity, but rather a component of the enterprise computing strategy, have all created a major shift in vendor ranking, market size and vendor performance. For the CRM software vendors, including e-commerce sell-side, buyer behavior has changed dramatically over the last several quarters, resulting in huge drops in sales of new licenses. CRM software license sales are competing for a more scrutinized IT and business budget, which is focused on a broader client requirement. ROI is a high priority for order closure. Due diligence on the part of the end-user organization has become a mandatory step. Some form of proof is required to close deals and release end users' budget. Smaller, tactically oriented solution deals are now more prominent than the "does-it-all megadeal" of past years. Offerings from enterprise software vendors and the awareness of the value to an enterprise for integrated front- and back-office applications have definitely set its roots. Companies are attempting to move toward a real-time enterprise capability by marketing, selling, manufacturing, shipping and supporting products in a more closely knit operation. Reducing time is the equation, which resultsinlessexpense,morerapidcaptureofcashandincreasedcustomer satisfaction. A true division of vendors has taken place pure plays that only offer a CRM package and integrated enterprise vendors that offer HR, financial management, operations management (manufacturing resource planning), CRM, SCM and supplier relationship management. The CRM software market revenue dropped from $3.99 billion in 2000 to $3.74 billion in 2001, resulting in a negative 6.4 percent decline. Coming off explosivegrowthinpreviousyears,thecrmsoftwaremarketisclearly challenged with meeting the new end-user requirements (see Table 1). Table 1 CRM Software License Revenue 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Revenue (Millions of U.S. Dollars) 831.6 1,349.1 2,107.1 3,991.5 3,735.4 Year-Over-Year Growth (%) - 62.2 56.2 89.4-6.4 Vendor Performance The CRM buyer behavioral changes have resulted in reduced sales for almost all of the CRM software vendors in 2001 and the first half of 2002. Most of the vendors experienced explosive growth between 1997 and 2000, then dropped significantly in 2001. In 2001, revenue performance radically shifted the top five CRM and e-commerce sell-side software vendor leaderboard (see Table 2). 2002 Gartner, Inc. 1
2 Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary) Table 2 CRM Vendor Rankings 2000 Vendor Ranking 2001 Vendor Ranking 1 Siebel 1 Siebel 2Oracle 2SAP 3Broadvision 3Oracle 4 Vignette 4 PeopleSoft 5 Nortel Clarify 5 Amdocs Clarify (acquisition) With some controversy among their competitors, SAP rose sharply from $77 million CRM new license revenue in 2000 to $434 million in 2001. SAP's CRM sales were largely derived from suite packaging techniques and smart pricing algorithms. These marketing tactics allowed SAP to claim CRM sales by having clients check off the CRM module on orders originating from other functional requirements, such as human resource management, financial management and ERP packages. However, suite packaging is not unique, and although a large percentage of SAP's CRM sales may not be implemented right away, its stake on future implementations is increased. Without SAP's CRM license revenue, the overall CRM market growth would have dropped to negative 15.7 percent as opposed to the negative 6.4 percent inclusive. ThedropinnewlicenserevenuefortheCRMsoftwaremarkethascreated turmoil with many of the vendors. Lower sales resulted in reduction in workforce, reduced R&D budget and overall valuation of a large portion of the vendors. Many of the CRM software providers are now forced to deal with higher costs of sales because of delays, longer sales cycles and smaller deals. Those vendors that cut their sales force now have reduced sales capability for immediate future growth. Downward price pressure from increased competition for the fewer and more highly negotiated deals has also reduced vendors' profit margins. CRM Application Software Forecast Projected growth of the CRM application software market is based on current market size, economic projections, end-user demand research, new pricing levels and vendor supply-side research. Gartner Dataquest currently projects the CRM application software market to realize a slow recovery in mid-2003 and achieve a five-year CAGR of 9.8 percent through 2006 (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). 2002 Gartner, Inc. October 30, 2002
Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary) 3 Figure 1 CRM Application Software New License Revenue Forecast Millions of U.S. Dollars 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 110508-01-01 Figure 2 CRM Application Software New License Revenue Growth Percentages Growth (Percent) 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 110508-01-02 2002 Gartner, Inc. October 30, 2002
4 Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast (Executive Summary) Recommendations to Vendors Vendors must ensure that their future direction is adjusted to the new reality of the marketplace, especially deciding what to sell, who to sell to and how to sell. Further, their business model, in terms of long-term positioning (point, suite or back-to-front), pricing, implementation, infrastructure and delivery channels, should take into account the fundamental developments in the marketplace. What to sell Full suites are difficult to sell in the current environment, therefore, be willing and able to sell modules and point solutions that meet the immediate needs of users or enhance performance of established solutions. This can be accomplished by unbundling suite packages while maintaining future positioning. How to sell Compelling software functionality has changed to business process improvement as a key buying element. Focus on business value to the end-user vs. compelling software functionality since decision making has shifted to the hands of CFOs, COOs and CEOs. Where to sell Segment the market and focus strategically. Regional and vertical industry targets must be researched and laid out in a detailed strategic plan. Further, each user segment (by region, by vertical and company size) has unique requirements. Unless vendors appropriately segment the market and focus strategically, they may end up spreading their resources too thin. Develop business model in tune with reality Decide long-term positioning Point solution vendors are in danger of extinction except in those areas where they have a huge lead over suite vendors. CRM suite vendors themselves are challenged by EAS suites and ERP II vendors, even though the latters' CRM products are not functionally as mature as pure-play products. But they are rapidly evolving. Vendors must prepare a long-term strategy about what they want to be and execute on the strategy fast. Rationalize and adjust expense structure to fit the new sales levels, but do notlosesightoftheopportunitieswhenthemarketlooksup Thereisa danger of understaffing operations or cutting on market and product development expenditure when the markets are down.this could hurt the long-term prospects of an organization, as it may not have enough bandwidth or equity in the market to benefit from an upswing. Have a flexible but principled approach to pricing All CRM software vendors are offering extremely high discounts to win business, some at any cost. No doubt, pricing should be used strategically, but lowering prices could take the industry down the spiral path of collective self-destruction and reduce the perceptual value of software. Widespread discounting over a long period will lead to a new future price standard. For the full report, see the Gartner Dataquest Market Trends, "Outlook for the CRM Software Market: Trends and Forecast" (SWSA-WW-MT-0104). 2002 Gartner, Inc. October 30, 2002