Verification of NSW Energy Efficiency Programs. Charles Xu

Transcription

1 Evaluation Measurement & Verification of NSW Energy Efficiency Programs Charles Xu

2 Overview Evaluation objective / rationale for reliable information First stage savings verification outcomes Current activities iti Observation

3 Scope Programs in scope Home Power Saving Program Home Saver Rebates Program Energy Efficiency for Small Business Program Energy Saver Program Government Building Retrofit Program Energy Savings Scheme Energy Efficiency i Community Awareness Program Energy Efficiency Training Program Accountability learning & improvement Informing policy & planning

4 To reduce bill pressure on customers Bill = Use x Price Reduced by intervention Curbed by informed decision More participation More funds End users Reliable evidence on outcomes Public & market Improved delivery More accurate forecast Government Energy planners

5 Uncertainty in energy planning Observed: since 2009/10 energy use declining across networks Dramatic readjustments year by year - lack of confidence in forecasts NSW end-use sales (GWh) forecast 2008 forecast forecast 2010 forecast forecast 2012 forecast NSW end-use sales (GWh) 2007 forecast 2008 forecast 2009 forecast 2010 forecast 2011 forecast 2012 forecast AEMO ESOO 2010, 11, 12: difficult to separate contributions of energy efficiency and price elasticity 2012 modelling report: future work - to understand behaviour change, monitor energy efficiency impact Jan 2013 consultation papers for 2013 Network Development Plan: no mentioning of energy efficiency

6 Savings Verification SAVINGS = 'Adjusted Baseline'minus 'Actual' SAVINGS Energy Use Actual Baseline: Monthly energy usage Baseline Model: Energy model developed using baseline usage and activity data Actual Post-Retrofit: Monthly energy usage Adjusted Baseline: 'Business as Usual 'forecast of usage using current activity data Baseline Period Retrofit Post-Retrofit Performance Period

7 Evaluation Framework Pi Principle: i Outcome-based + Ground-truthing thi Impact on energy market & state economy Transformation of goods & service markets Cost-effectiveness of energy savings Energy and bill savings by customers Behaviour & culture changes Technological intervention Knowledge empowering Program

8 Verified savings Low Income Homes Home Power Savings Program Equity objective Target 220,000 low income homes Free to low-cost saving measures Verification method Customer billing data Regression, control group Net savings including rebound effect

9 Verified savings Low income homes Year 1 Net Savings control group + regression Saving Unit % saving Full kit 365 kwh/hh/y 7.3% Average 208 kwh/hh/y 4% Lighting only 128 kwh/hh/y 2.3% Showerhead only 124 kwh/person/y 4.8% Gross savings higher (10%) including community wide reduction (6%)

10 Verified savings Low income homes Cost-effective against IPART benchmark NSW Support 220,000 low income households h to reduce energy use by up to 20% by June 2014 (NSW 2021) Aspirational for achieve more savings o larger saving items o more sustained influence on behaviour o better ways to inform decision making Government developing new programs

11 Verified savings Small businesses Energy Efficiency for Small Business Program Merged with other business programs in Dec 2012 Equity - SMEs ill-resourced Reached 16,000+ SMEs, implemented To subsidise the cost of implementation Verification method Billing data Option C under IPMVP temperature data

12 Verified savings Small businesses Stage 1 saving results (a sample of 509 sites, 331verified) Activity Sample Savings (MWh) % saving relative to BAU Air compression % Boilers 4 28, % Hot water 21 68, % 6.6% HVAC , % Insulation 3 undetected Undetected Lighting g 124 1,030, % Motors & VSDs 5 49, % Refrigeration , % Multiple , % Grand total 331 1,866, %

13 Verified savings Small businesses Measured savings compared with estimated savings Measured Predicted / activity MWh savings / Air Boiler Hotwater HVAC Insulation Lighting g Motors and Refrigeration Multiple compression VSDs

14 Peak savings Small businesses Peak load reduction 12 sites Savings (kva) % savings (relative to BAU) 12 month aggregated demand 1, % Peak month % Capacity % % saving Energy consumption Capacity Peak month 12 month aggregated demand 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

15 Verified savings Large businesses (trial case) The Project: A convention Centre Lighting upgrade M&V IPMVP Option A: measured power input and light output, t estimated t operation hours Electricity y( (kwh) Savings % Savings 62,563 72%

16 Verified savings Government buildings (trial case) The project: A public hospital Chillers upgrading 2,500,000 M&V IPMVP Option B/C; Boundary: chilled water plant Energy saving (kwh) % boundary % saving whole site (kwh) Monthly Electricity Use ( 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 HVAC kwh Modelled HVAC kwh Savings Period: 1,196 MWh $138,000 1,280 t.co 2 -e 12.4% 1,196, % 3.6% 500,000 0

17 Behaviour change measured Home Power Saving Program A small saving, likely attributable to behaviour High saving variability - potential for behavioural change Energy Efficiency for Small Business Program 2012 survey: 50% participants implemented opportunities without rebate High saving variability - potential for behavioural change Energy Saver Program 2012 survey: >50% participants took further actions not covered by the program

18 Current activities Saving verification More projects, new dimensions Homes, small businesses larger sample, in-depth analysis Medium-large businesses more M&V trials Government sites M&V via capacity building Hot water system replacement research, knowledge developing

19 Current activities M&V Guide Measurement & Verification Operational Guide On OEH website today!

20 Current activities Cost-effectiveness ti analysis Benchmark Levelised program cost Total Resource Cost Test Direct costs (public & private) Transaction costs Lifetime saving estimates based on EM&V

21 Current activities Market transformation analysis Market classification Data source identification Market logic Metrics / KPI Analysis method Survey into specific markets e.g. commercial lighting Data mining e.g. business equip. inventories Analysis

22 Current activities Energy market modelling Stage 1 Review & compilation of Govt program data (settings, costs, savings) Surveys for transaction costs Reference case Base program case EE & end-user interaction model Load profiles Stage 2 Peaking program case Activity based energy savings on a distribution zone basis Government program data compilation (settings, costs, savings) Resource costs Peak demand Energy consumption Reassemble data by technologies and networks NEM wholesale market simulation Deferred network expansion Retail energy prices

23 Observations from stage 1 evaluation Well on track to deliver expected outputs Savings are real from verified participants, sites and projects Verified savings from hardware are commensurate to level of interventions Savings are cost-effective against benchmark Behaviour & culture changes are observable in participating businesses, indicative in participating homes Potential for significant householder behaviour change through more intensive engagement Evaluation findings are providing evidence for policy development