5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COSTS IN THAILAND

Transcription

1 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COSTS IN THAILAND 5.1 Introduction Investigation into the range of costs incurred by road crashes in the five pilot provinces, as discussed in Chapter 3, served as the basis for estimating the losses associated with road accidents in Thailand. The five provinces where studies were conducted are representative of 76 provinces As mentioned in Chapter 2, the cost elements of a road accident are classified into three categories: Human Costs, Property Damage Costs, and General Crash Costs. In order to calculate the total losses arising from traffic accidents, two sets of data, which are 1) the number of casualties and crashes and 2) the unit cost data, must first be compiled. The compilation of such data is described in the following topics. 5.2 Number of Casualties and Crashes Number of Casualties In this study, crash-related casualties are classified into four groups according to the severity of injury, namely fatal, physical disabling, seriously injured, and slightly injured. Raw data of crash casualties were obtained from the Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2004 published by the Bureau of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health. Since the data of crash injury obtained from the said report were not classified according to the severity of injury, the consultant therefore split the crash injury data into three groups, i.e. physically disabling, seriously injured, and slightly injured, according to the percentages obtained from studies conducted in the five provinces. Table 5.1 shows the numbers of crash casualty in degrees of severity derived by this method.

2 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-2 Table 5.1: Crash Casualties Classified by Severity *

3 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-3 Table 5.1: Crash Casualties Classified by Severity (Continued) Remark: * compiled by the Consultant Source: estimated from statistics in Annual Epidemiological Surveillance Report 2004

4 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-4 Under reported Data In addition, casualty data obtained from the Royal Thai Police, the Bureau of Epidemiology and other data collected by the consultant were grouped into two main categories: Death (fatal) and Injury (non-fatal). The numbers were compared and their relative magnitudes calculated. The fatality and injury ratios thus obtained will provide a basis for normalising accident casualty figures reported by different sources. Breakdown of road accident casualty data for Bangkok and four other target provinces are shown in tables to 5.2 and 5.3 below. Table 5.2: Casualty Ratios for Bangkok based on data from 3 sources Source Fatalities Injuries Number Percentage Number Ratio Royal Thai Police , Bureau of Epidemiology , The Consultant , In Table 5.2, the number of deaths reported by the three sources are in the ratio of 1.09: 0.18: It can be seen that the figure reported by the Royal Thai Police and that by the consultant are quite comparable; the slight difference between the two is of no significance. In contrast, the fatality figure reported by The Bureau of Epidemiology is way below that of the other two sources. This was because data from the Bureau of Epidemiology were limited to those collected from the hospitals attached to the Public Health Ministry. Therefore, for the purpose of normalising the Bangkok fatality rate, data from the Royal Thai Police, or the average of the rates obtained from the Royal Thai police and the consultant, may be used as a base figure. For the Injury category, data from the three sources show marked differences, i.e. 0.39: 0.42: Figures from the Royal Police and the Bureau of Epidemiology are less than half the number obtained by consultant. This was because a large number of minor injuries, as normally occurred in accident cases in Bangkok, were not reported to the authorities, thereby resulting in the lower numbers. In contrast, statistics collected by the consultant were obtained from all types of hospital including those not attached to Public Health Ministry as well as private hospitals where a significant number of small injuries are treated. Therefore, if data from the above two sources are to be used, they should be normalised against that of the consultant s in order to reflect the actual situation. Data collected from the other four provinces, as shown in Table 5.3, are regarded as representative of the true situation outside of Bangkok. Table 4.3 shows a low fatality rate reported by the Royal Thai Police. Similarly, fatal cases reported by the Bureau of Epidemiology are also on the low side. Fatality rates obtained by consultant, by contrast,

5 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-5 are higher than the numbers obtained from the other two sources by some 35%. Again, the large difference was due to the consultant s more comprehensive collection method: data were collected from all types of hospital covering hospitals under the Public Health Ministry, private hospitals and university hospitals in Khon Khaen and Songkhla. Injury figures reported by the Royal Thai Police is on the low side when compared against data collected by the consultant. This was because only the injury pertaining to actionable cases and logged in police journals was reported. Injury rates reported by the Bureau of Epidemiology is likewise lower by some 30%, being limited to cases treated by Ministry-affiliated hospitals, whereas consultant s number was the result of a much wider extent of collection including data from private hospitals and university hospitals in Khon Khaen and Songkhla. Table 5.3: Accident Casualty Ratios for our target provinces based on data from three sources. Source Royal Thai Police Bureau of Epidemiology Fatalities Lampang Nakhonsawan Khonkaen Songkhla Total Ratio , , Consultant , Source Royal Thai Police Bureau of Epidemiology Injuries Lampang Nakhonsawan Khonkaen Songkhla Total Ratio 820 1, ,406 4, ,771 18,902 23,212 23,253 78, Consultant 15,754 29,765 31,634 33, , The percentages presented above should be considered or applied within the context of their suitability and comprehensiveness. Where it can be verified that available data are sufficiently accurate and comprehensive, no normalisation would be necessary

6 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Number of Crashes Data collected from police stations in the five pilot provinces showed no significant difference in the casualties-per-crash averages (by degree of severity) for Lampang, Nakhonsawan, Khonkaen, and Songkhla while a marked difference was observed in the same figures for Bangkok. Therefore, the average casualties-per-crash are finally grouped in two i.e. averages for Bangkok as one, and Other Provinces as another group. The latter group comprises averages of figures derived for the four provinces. Results of such grouping are shown in Table 5.4 and Table 5.5. Table 5.4: Casualties-per-Crash Average for Bangkok Casualties per Crash Average Severity Serious Slight Total Fatalities Injuries Injuries Casualties Fatal Serious Slight Table 5.5: Casualties-per-Crash Average for Other Provinces Casualties per Crash Average Severity Serious Slight Total Fatalities Injuries Injuries Casualties Fatal Serious Slight Remark: Analyzed from police crash records for Lampang, Nakhonsawan, Khonkaen, and Songkhla From the averages thus derived, the number of crashes classified by severity can be calculated. Results are shown in Table 5.6.

7 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-7 Table 5.6 : Estimated Number of Crashes by Severity

8 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-8 Table 5.6 : Estimated Number of Crashes by Severity (Continued) Source : Complied by The Consultant

9 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Number of Accident Cases Transferred by EMS From the information collected in the pilot provinces other than Bangkok, the ratio between number of crashes and number of cases transferred by EMS unit is calculated for each degree of crash severity. The results are shown in Table 5.7. Table 5.7 : Ratio of Crashes to Cases Transferred by EMS Unit, by Severity Number of crashes : 1 case transferred by EMS Fatal Serious Injured Slight Injured 4 pilot provinces 1.67 : : : 1 The figures shown in Table 5.7 are then used to determine the number of cases transferred by EMS in five study areas as shown in Table 5.8. Table 5.8 : Cases Transferred by EMS Unit Classified by Severity Number of Cases Transferred by EMS Unit Classified by Severity Fatal Serious Injured Slight Injured Bangkok 428 5,944 2,817 Other provinces 6, ,696 27,540 Total 7, ,640 30, Number of Crashes Involving Non-Vehicular Damage Similarly, police records obtained from pilot provinces showed that in some 10% of the crashes recorded, damage was also caused to properties other than vehicles. Information of such non-vehicular-damage crashes, or NVD, is summarized in Table 5.9. Table 5.9 : Non-Vehicular-Damage Crashes Classified by Severity Number of NVD Crashes Serious Property Damage Fatal Slight Injured Injured Only Bangkok ,271 8,541 Other provinces 1,101 14,891 41,749 83,498 Total 1,173 15,705 46,020 92,039

10 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Number of Insurance Claims From the information collected in the pilot provinces, the percentage between number of crashes and number of insurance claims is calculated for each degree of crash severity. The results are shown in Table Table 5.10 : Percentage between Number of Crashes and Number of Insurance Claims Percentages of Insurance Claims Property Damage Fatal Serious Injured Slight Injured Only Compulsory Voluntary Compulsory Voluntary Compulsory Voluntary Voluntary Based on the information from the five pilot provinces, the Consultant determined the ratio of crashes to the volume of insurance claims made. Results are summarized in Table Table 5.11 : Number of Insurance Claims Number of Insurance Claims Property Damage Fatal Serious Injured Slight Injured Only Comp Volu Comp Volun Comp Volun ulsory ntary ulsory tary ulsory tary Voluntary Bangkok ,681 1,462 35,039 7,667 42,706 Other provinces 9, ,183 26, ,551 74, ,490 Total 9,617 2, ,864 28, ,590 82, , Number of Attendances by Police Using the information from five pilot provinces, the percentage of crashes to the number of police attendances to the crash sites can be determined. The results are shown in Table Hence, the total attendance cases by police of Thailand were calculated and the results shown in Table Table 5.12 : Percentage between Number of Crashes and Number of Police Attendances Fatal Reporte d Percentages of Attendances by Police Serious Injured Slight Injured Property Damage Only Reported Reported Unreported Reported Unreported Bangkok Other provinces

11 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-11 Table 5.13 : Number of Attendances by Police Number of Attendances by Police Serious Property Damage Fatal Slight Injured Injured Only Reported Reported Reported Unreported Reported Unreported Bangkok 715 2,684 2,793 11,285 6,121 29,074 Other provinces 11,006 6,433 6,429 27,095 7,431 48,763 Total 11,721 9,117 9,222 38,380 13,552 77, Number of Cases Referred to Court Using to the information from five pilot provinces, the ratio of crashes to the number of cases referred to court can be determined. Results are summarized in Table Hence, the total cases referred to court of Thailand were calculated and the results shown in Table Table 5.14 : Percentage between Number of Crashes and Number of Cases Referred to Court Percentages of cases referred to Court Serious Property Damage Fatal Slight Injured Injured Only Bangkok Other provinces Table 5.15 : Number of Cases Referred to Court Number of cases referred to Court Serious Property Damage Fatal Slight Injured Injured Only Bangkok 627 1, ,315 Other provinces 9,658 6,433 2,046 5,678 Total 10,285 7,944 2,512 6, Number of Cases Transferred by ERS From the information gathered from five pilot provinces, the ratio of crashes to number of cases transferred by ERS can be determined. Results are summarized in Table Hence, the total cases referred to court of Thailand were calculated and the results shown in Table 5.17.

12 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-12 Table 5.16 : Ratio of Crashes to Number of Cases Transferred by ERS Number of Cases Transferred by ERS Fatal Serious Injured Bangkok 5.04:1 3.97:1 Other provinces 5.04:1 3.97:1 Table 5.17 : Number of Cases Transferred by ERS Number of Cases Transferred by ERS Fatal Serious Injured Bangkok 177 1,638 Other provinces 2,724 37,510 Total 2,901 39,148

13 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Unit Cost Human Costs Category Loss of Productivity Cost The unit costs of production loss per casualty were determined for the crashes based on gender and age groups using the information from IS data of hospitals in the five pilot provinces. In addition, the calculation took into account the local wage function which is in dependent on local economic factors as explained in Chapter 2. Another component was the weighted average of the wage scales. All these components were considered in determining the average productivity loss for each province. The final productivity losses incurred according to degrees of accident severity are summarized in Tables 5.18 below. It should be noted that in estimating productivity losses due to serious and slight injuries, only one medical-care provider, such as a nurse, is factored into the estimation. However, for the case of physically disabling injury, the productivity loss of such a care provider is added to the long term cost of care.

14 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-14 Table 5.18 : Loss of Productivity Classified by Severity

15 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-15 Table 5.18 : Loss of Productivity Classified by Severity (Continued)

16 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-16 Table 5.18 : Loss of Productivity Classified by Severity (Continued)

17 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Quality of Life Cost In order to determine this aspect of the costs, the Consultant conducted a number of interviews with citizens, experts, and accident victims in the pilot provinces to find out the extent of losses in the quality of life caused by road accidents. Results of the interviews are shown in Table Productivity losses of the accident victim and the care provider together with hospital-care cost are summed up, and the sum then multiplied by the figures in Table The results thus obtained show the monetary value of quality of life losses (fatality, disability serious and slight = 125, 150, 75 and 25 respectively). These are shown in Table Table 5.19 : Results of Interviews on Quality of Life Cost Interviewees People s representatives (20 persons) Experts (77 persons) Accident Victims (87 persons) Loss in Quality of Life as Percentages of Total Human Category Cost Serious Fatality Disability Slight Injury Injury (Average) (Average) (Average) (Average) Average Source: Interviews and Consultant s Calculation

18 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-18 Table 5.20: Estimates of Quality of Life Losses

19 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-19 Table 5.20: Estimates of Quality of Life Losses (Continued)

20 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Medical Care Cost Since the cost of medical care was found to be fairly uniform across all of the pilot provinces, it is assumed that such a cost pattern would be typical across Thailand. The Consultant therefore determined the unit cost by averaging all the prices obtained from the five provinces in order to arrive at a cost that is applicable for the whole country. The average cost of treating crash patients according to degrees of injury severity is summarized in Table Table 5.21 : Average Crash Patients Treatment Cost by Degree of Severity Fatal Medical Care Unit Cost (baht per casualty) Seriously Disabled Injured Slightly Injured All provinces 8,995 12,016 18, EMS Cost EMS Cost is also assumed to follow a similar pattern across Thailand, much like the medical-care scenario. An EMS Unit Cost is shown in Table 5.22 Table 5.22 : Average EMS Cost The Average Cost of EMS (baht per case) All provinces 1, Long-Term Care Cost Long-term care cost is limited to the group of victims whose physical disability as a result of road crashes requires continuous care and recurring expenses as explained in Chapter 2. Such a cost is shown in Table 5.23.

21 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-21 Table 5.23: Estimates of Long Term Care Cost

22 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-22 Table 5.23: Estimates of Long Term Care Cost (Continued)

23 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Property Damage Costs Vehicular Damage Cost From the vehicular damage cost figures obtained in the five pilot provinces, the average damage cost per crash classified by crash severity can be summarized in Table Table 5.24 : Average Vehicular Damage Classified by Crash Severity Average Vehicular Damage Classified by Crash Severity (baht per crash) Seriously Property Damage Fatal Slightly Injured Injured Only Bangkok 259, ,367 32,481 25,296 Other provinces Non-Vehicular Damage Cost 174,834 81,702 22,979 20,145 From the determination of costs arising from damage to properties other than the vehicles involved in crashes, the average non-vehicular damage per crash classified by crash severity can be summarized in Table Table 5.25 : Average Non-Vehicular Damage Classified by Crash Severity Average Non-Vehicular Damage Classified by Crash Severity (baht per crash) Seriously Property Damage Fatal Slightly Injured Injured Only Bangkok 5,202 4,385 2,965 1,939 Other provinces General Crash Costs 1,490 1,705 1,907 3,269 This category of costs comprises expenses incurred by a crash wherein authorities or persons concerned with the management of the incident are required to act or to provide service. It includes administration costs incurred to insurance companies, police, the judicial system and expenses for the emergency rescue team Insurance Administration Cost The average cost of insurance administration across the five pilot provinces is shown in Table 5.26.

24 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-24 Table 5.26: Average Insurance Administration Cost per Claim Average Insurance Administration Cost (baht per claim) Compulsory Voluntary System System Bangkok 1,403 3,250 Other provinces 1,201 3, Police Administration Cost Cost of police administration in the five pilot provinces were found to differ significantly among the areas. Therefore a fixed rate is assumed for this cost for the whole country based on either a reported or unreported crash incident. The rates are shown in Table Table 5.27 : Average Police Administration Cost per Attendance Average Police Administration Cost (baht per attendance case) Reported Case Unreported Case All provinces 5,443 1, Judicial Administration Cost The average cost of judicial administration per crash incident, taken from costs across the five pilot provinces, is shown in Table Table 5.28: Average Judicial Administration Cost Average Judicial Administration Cost (baht per case) Bangkok 34,904 Other provinces 33, Emergency Rescue Service Cost From the determination of ERS cost in five pilot provinces, the average ERS cost per case can be summarized in Table 5.29.

25 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-25 Table 5.29: Average ERS Cost per Case Average ERS Cost (baht per case) Bangkok 1,682 Other provinces 1, Travel Time Delay Four provinces were selected as a representative for regional area of Thailand to determine the travel delay cost. The consultant selected these provinces from every part of Thailand. (Lampang (North), Nakornsawan (Middle), Songkhla (South), and Khon Kaen (North- East). The average of travel delay cost per accident case categorized by accident severity for regional area can be determined in Table Table 5.30 : The average of travel delay cost per accident case categorized by accident severity for regional area Accident Severity Lampang (baht) Nakornsawan (baht) Songkhla (baht) Khon Kaen (baht) Regional (baht) Fatal Crash 38,373 43,256 37,533 19,661 34,706 Serious Crash 25,467 14,158 31,242 12,751 20,905 Slight Crash 14,783 10,199 17,283 9,032 12,824 PDO 7,860 7,224 11,843 8,063 8,748 Source : From the estimation of consultant Table 5.31 : The travel delay cost per accident case categorized by accident severity for Bangkok Accident Severity (baht) Fatal Crash Serious Crash Slight Crash PDO 218, , , ,116

26 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND Total Traffic Accident Costs for Thailand From all of the data mentioned in sections 5.2 and 5.3, the Consultant has estimated the costs of road crashes in Thailand for the year 2004 at 184, million baht. Details are shown in Table 5.32 Table 5.32 : Total Traffic Accident Costs in Thailand 2004 (Used average factor for quality of life)

27 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-27 Table 5.33 and Figure 5.1 give the breakdown of the three groups of costs in terms of percentages. It can be seen that the cost of loss of productivity and long term care equals 1, million baht or % of the total costs, the loss of quality of life 1, million baht or %, medical cost million or 1.67 %, emergency medical service 2.36 million baht or 0.04 %, vehicle damage 2, million baht or %, non-vehicle damage million baht or 3.34 %, insurance administration million baht or 2.42 %, police administration 5.02 million baht or 0.06 %, judicial system costs 5.67 million baht or 0.08 %, emergency rescue service 1.96 million baht or 0.03 %, and the delay in transport cost million baht or 7.48 %. Table 5.33 : Breakdown of Traffic Accident Costs for Thailand for 2004 (Computed by using average QOL factor) Cost Elements Amount (million baht) % Human Costs Total 104, Loss of productivity - Loss of quality of life - Medical - Emergency medical service - Long term care 36, , , , Property Damage Costs Total 45, Vehicle damage - Non-vehicle damage 45, General Crash Costs Total 34, Insurance administration - Police administration - Judicial system - Emergency rescue service - Travel delay 2, , Total 184,

28 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-28 Emergency rescue service costs 0.03 % Judicial system costs 0.51 % Police administration costs 0.21 % Insurance administration costs 1.31 % Non-vehicle damage costs 0.22 % Travel delay costs % Loss of productivity costs 19.51% Vehicle damage costs % Loss of quality of life costs % Long term care costs 2.80 % Medical costs 2.51% Emergency medical service costs 0.14% Figure 5.1 : Percentage of Elements of Thailand Road Crash Costs for 2004 (average case) Productivity losses of the accident victim and the care provider together with hospital-care cost are summed up, and the sum then multiplied by the figures in Table The results thus obtained show the monetary value of quality of life losses (fatality, disability serious and slight = 167, 200, 100 and 40 respectively). The Consultant has estimated the costs of road crashes in Thailand for the year 2004 at 204, million baht. Details are shown in Table 5.34 Table 5.35 and Figure 5.2 show details of breakdown of traffic accident costs for 2004, as computed by using maximum value of QOL factor

29 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-29 Table 5.34 : Road Accident Costing in Thailand 2004 (Used maximum factor for quality of life) Note : com = Compulsory insurance vol = Voluntary insurance rep = Reported cases unrep = Unreported cases

30 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-30 Table 5.35 : Breakdown of Traffic Accident Costs for Thailand for 2004 (Computed by using maximum QOL factor) Human Costs Cost Elements - Loss of productivity - Loss of quality of life - Medical - Emergency medical service - Long term care Property Damage Costs - Vehicle damage - Non-vehicle damage General Crash Costs - Insurance administration - Police administration - Judicial system - Emergency rescue service - Travel delay Total Total Total Amount (million baht) % 123, , , , , , , , , , Total 204,

31 5 TRAFFIC ACCIDENT COST IN THAILAND 5-31 Emergency rescue service costs 0.03% Judicial system costs 0.46 % Police administration costs 0.19 % Insurance administration costs 1.18 % Non-vehicle damage costs 0.20 % Travel delay costs % Loss of productivity costs % Vehicle damage costs % Loss of quality of life costs % Long term care costs 2.53 % Emergency medical service costs 0.13% Medical Costs 2.27% Figure 5.2 : Percentage of Elements of Thailand Road Crash Costs for 2004 (maximum case) Table 5.36 shows range value of costs according to crash severity (minimum and maximum), with a fatal costing 3,959,387 4,658,004 baht, a disability 4,503,479 5,404,175 baht, a serious injury 123, ,836 baht, and a slight injury 30,289 30,461 baht, and a property damage only crash 40,220 baht. Table 5.36 : Average Value of Costs according to Crash Severity Crash Severity Average value of Costs (baht) A Fatality 3,959,387 4,658,004 A Disability 4,503,479 5,404,175 A Serious Injury 123, ,836 A Slight Injury 30,289 30,461 A Property Damage Only Crash 40,220