Bank of Ireland Overview

Transcription

1 Bank of Ireland Presentation October 202 (as at 24th October 202)

2 Forward-looking statement This document contains certain forward looking statements within the meaning of Section 2E of the US Securities Exchange Act of 934 and Section 27A of the US Securities Act of 933 with respect to certain of the Bank of Ireland Group s (the Group) plans and its current goals and expectations relating to its future financial condition and performance, the markets in which it operates, and its future capital requirements. These forward looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to historical or current facts. Generally, but not always, words such as may, could, should, will, expect, intend, estimate, anticipate, assume, believe, plan, seek, continue, target, goal, would, or their negative variations or similar expressions identify forward looking statements. Examples of forward looking statements include among others, statements regarding the Group s near term and longer term future capital requirements and ratios, loan to deposit ratios, expected impairment charges, the level of the Group s assets, the Group s financial position, future income, business strategy, projected costs, margins, future payment of dividends, the implementation of changes in respect of certain of the Group s defined benefit pension schemes, estimates of capital expenditures, discussions with Irish, UK, European and other regulators and plans and objectives for future operations. Such forward looking statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, and hence actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the following: concerns on sovereign debt and financial uncertainties in the EU and in member countries and the potential effects of those uncertainties on the Group; general economic conditions in Ireland, the United Kingdom and the other markets in which the Group operates; changes in applicable laws, regulations and taxes in jurisdictions in which the Group operates particularly banking regulation by the Irish and UK Governments together with any changes arising on foot of the Euro Area Summit Statement on 29 June 202; the impact of further downgrades in the Group s and the Irish Government s credit rating; the availability of customer deposits at sustainable pricing levels to fund the Group s loan portfolio and the outcome of the Group s disengagement from the ELG scheme; development and implementation of the Group s strategy, including the Group s deleveraging plan and the Group s ability to achieve estimated net interest margin increases and cost reductions; property market conditions in Ireland and the UK; the performance and volatility of international capital markets; the potential exposure of the Group to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk, credit risk and commodity price risk; the effects of the Irish Government s stockholding in the Group (through the NPRFC) and possible increases in the level of such stockholding; the outcome of any legal claims brought against the Group by third parties or legal or regulatory proceedings more generally that may have implications for the Group; the Group s ability to address information technology issues; potential deterioration in the credit quality of the Group s borrowers and counterparties; and implications of the Personal Insolvency Bill 202 for distressed debt recovery and impairment provisions. Nothing in this document should be considered to be a forecast of future profitability or financial position and none of the information in this document is or is intended to be a profit forecast or profit estimate. Any forward looking statements speak only as at the date they are made. The Group does not undertake to release publicly any revision to these forward looking statements to reflect events, circumstances or unanticipated events occurring after the date hereof. The reader should however, consult any additional disclosures that the Group has made or may make in documents filed or submitted or may file or submit to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Bank of Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Bank of Ireland is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. Bank of Ireland is incorporated in Ireland with limited liability. Registered Office - Head Office, 40 Mespil Road, Dublin 4, Ireland. Registered Number - C-.

3 Irish Economy Overview

4 Ireland re-enters bond markets in 202 Significant rally in Irish Sovereign debt 20% 5% 0% 5% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Bloomberg - 0 year generic yields Bank debt follows similar trend 2% Ireland Spain Italy Jan 2 Feb 2 Mar 2 Apr 2 May 2 Jun 2 Jul 2 Aug 2 Sep 2 Market confidence returns In the year to October 202, the NTMA issued.2bn in new and exchange bonds and T-bills January 202: Bond switch from January new February 205 July, September, October 202: T-bill issuance July 202: (i) New issuance 5.5% October 207 (ii) Switch from 203 and 204 (iii) Tap of the existing Irish 5% October 2020 bond August 202: New issuance - 5 amortising bonds Ireland s maturity profile lengthened Dec 20 Ebn Aug 202 Ebn Change Ebn 0% BKIR ELG 205 BKIR Covered 205 NTMA % % % % % Feb 2 Mar 2 Apr 2 Source: Bloomberg (yields) May 2 Jun 2 Jul 2 Aug 2 Sep 2 Source: Bloomberg, NTMA, Department of Finance & BOI Economics Research Unit. Includes all official funding drawn down to the end of May 202, excludes 6.84bn in IMF funding which amortises from July 205 through February 2022; excludes short term debt, excludes amortising bonds. 2

5 Irish economy stabilising Ireland records stronger than expected growth GDP grew by.4% in 20, forecast to grow by 0.8% in 202 Current account surplus c..8bn in 200 and 20, forecast to be c. 4.5bn in 202 Domestic environment subdued Consumer spending remains muted Unemployment rate 4.8% in Q2 202 Residential property prices down c.50% from peak in 2007 Ireland continuing to meet its commitments Significant outperformance versus fiscal target in 20, General Government deficit of 9.% of GDP versus 0.6% Troika target Continued delivery on EU/IMF Programme benchmarks On track to match or beat 202 fiscal targets Tax revenue.5% ahead of forecast to end September BOI Economic Research Unit Ireland s current account in surplus Tax revenues increasing m 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Current Spending Taxes 0 0-2, , , ,000-0,000-2, (f)203(f)204(f)205(f) Source: CSO, ERU Q 2007 Q Q Q Q 2008 Q Q Q Graph shows: Annual % change in tax revenues and current spending Source: Irish Department of Finance Q 2009 Q Q Q Q 200 Q2 200 Q3 200 Q4 200 Q 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20 Q 202 Q

6 Competitive position remains Underlying strengths of Irish economy remain Very open economy Exports accounted for 06% of GDP in 20 (Portugal 35%, Spain 30%, Italy 29%,Greece 2%) Substantial gains in competitiveness Unit labour costs down c.5% since 2009, forecast to improve by c.22% relative to Euro Area ( ) Commercial rents down c.5% since 2007 Attractive investment characteristics Flexible labour market, st for availability of skilled labour 2 Favourable demographics c.52% of population under the age of 35 3 Low corporate tax rate of 2.5% Continuing to attract FDI Record number of IDA investments won in 20, significant further investments in 202 st in Eurozone for Ease of Doing Business 4 2nd most attractive country globally for FDI 5 Best location to invest in Western Europe 6 Ireland regained competitiveness: unit labour costs % Change 25% 20% 5% 0% 5% 0% -5% -0% -5% -20% -25% Euro Area -22% Ireland EU Belgium Germany Graph shows: Whole economy unit labour costs Source: EU Commission Spring forecasts 202 Greece Spain France Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Austria Portugal Finland Commercial rents down substantially Poland Sweden United Kingdom USA Datastream (for 20) 2 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook CSO Census 20 4 World Bank Doing Business 202 report 5 NIB/FDI Intelligence Inward Investment Performance Monitor 20 6 Site Selection magazine s annual Best to Invest rankings D339 Oct Source: Lisney Research - Commercial Rental Indices Q

7 Bank of Ireland Overview

8 Bank of Ireland overview Systemically important retail & commercial bank in the Irish banking sector playing a critical role in the operation of the Irish economy Product Irish market shares Current Accounts: Personal Business Corporate 36% 36% >50% Mortgages 2% Credit Cards 34% Business Loan Accounts 35% Life and Pension 2% Extensive network in Ireland over one million customers, c.250 full service branches Leading market positions in Ireland no. or no. 2 in all our principal product and market segments Broad product offering Consumer, Private Banking, Business, Corporate Banking, Treasury, Savings/Pension/Life assurance distribution Extension of relationship with UK Post Office c. one and a half million depositors International presence Acquisition Finance and certain other niche lending activities in UK, US and Europe Deposit & treasury services in UK and US Latest data available 5

9 Further progress on key priorities Capital Loans Deposits Core Tier Ratio 5.% 4.9% E44bn E9bn PCAR/EBA basis 9.7% 4.3% 4.0% E4bn 32% E02bn E98bn E65bn E7bn E72bn 6.3% Sept 2008 Dec 200 Dec 20 Jun 202 Group maintains strong capital ratios - core tier ratio of 4.9% at June 202 Ratio reflects after tax loss incurred in period partly offset by lower RWAs as a result of deleveraging On a PCAR/EBA basis, core tier ratio of 4.0% versus 0.5% PCAR requirement Sept 2008 Dec 200 Dec 20 Jun 202 Asset disposal target of e0bn exceeded ahead of schedule and below 20 PCAR base case assumptions - average discount of 7.9% incurred Net redemptions continue in line with expectations Further c.e8bn net redemptions required to reach Group s target of c.e90bn by December 204 Sept 2008 Dec 200 Dec 20 Jun 202 Deposits increased by ebn since December 20; FX impact Focus on reducing quantum of deposits covered under ELG Scheme and reducing rates paid Loan to deposit ratio of 36% at June 202 Target of e75bn - e80bn by December 204 Net of impairment provisions 6

10 Focus on rebuilding profitability 33bps Net Interest Margin Net Interest Margin trend 33bps NIM impacted by interest rate environment and deposit pricing UK Mortgages - SVR increased by a total of 50bps since June 202 ROI Mortgages - SVR increasing by 50bps in H2 202 ROI SME loan pricing reset to reference actual cost of funds 20bps H 20 H2 20 H 202 Leading price reductions in ROI deposits Covered liabilities E36bn ELG exit at period end Reduction E00bn / 74% E36bn E22bn E4bn Sept 2008 Jun 202 n CIFS Scheme n Customer Deposits n Wholesale Funding H E6bn reduction in the level of covered liabilities April Bank of Ireland (UK) plc withdrew from ELG Scheme August Isle of Man withdrew from ELG Scheme ELG wholesale funding being repaid Non ELG deposits from Corporate, Business and other customers Ownership structure 85% 5% Private Stakeholders Ireland 5% stockholder in BOI Cash invested by the State Cash paid by BOI to the State Current State investments in BOI 4.8bn 2.5bn Group focused on reducing risk to State State 2.8bn +5% stockholding 74% reduction in liabilities covered under ELG Scheme since September 2008 Taking actions to fully disengage from ELG ELG covers eligible deposits to the extent not covered by deposit protection schemes in the State (Deposit Guarantee Scheme) or any other jurisdiction 7

11 Asset profile at June 202 Profile of total loans and advances to customers e98bn Impairment charges 3bn ROI Mortgages E.bn E0.3bn E0.94bn 23bn 7bn 26bn UK Mortgages Non-property SME & corporate Property & Construction Consumer E0.84bn E0.6bn E0.25bn E0.25bn E0.3bn E0.22bn n Residential Mortgages n Property & Construction n Non-property SME & corporate n Consumer 29bn E0.39bn E0.5bn E0.38bn E0.04bn E0.03bn E0.03bn H 20 H2 20 H 202 Geographic profile of total loans and advances to customers AFS portfolio June e.3bn (ex NAMA bonds) 2 Republic of Ireland Net incremental investment in 202 of e.5bn in Irish bonds funded by ECB 3 year LTRO (total Irish Sovereign holding e5.5bn) 49% 5% Rest of World Exposures to Spain and Portugal are substantially covered bonds - all investment grade Italian exposures primarily short dated - e0.2bn will mature within year No AFS exposures to Greece Net of impairment provisions 2 NAMA Bonds e4.7bn June 202 8

12 Irish residential mortgage book at June 202 Retail Ireland Owner Occupier Buy to Let Total 20 2 Base/Stress Full Year Base/Stress Forecast Total mortgages (gross) em 20,7 6,87 27,582 GDP (%) 0.9/ /0.3.0 Paying principal and interest 88% 49% 79% Neither past due nor impaired 87% 74% 84% Negative equity em 2,86,425 4,286 GNP (%) -.5/ / Unemployment rate (%) 3.4/ / Weighted average indexed LTV 06% 25% 0% Employment rate (%) -0.8/ / Coverage ratio 35% 46% 40% Arrears >90 days past due and/or impaired - BOI (no. of cases) - Industry (no. of cases) 7.03% 0.9% 3.99% % - House prices (%) -3.4/ / Commercial property (%) -2.5/ / Restructuring arrangements em, ,548 Inflation - HICP (%) - CPI (%) 0.4/0. 0.9/ / / Unemployment and affordability issues remain principal drivers of arrears 76% of negative equity neither past due nor impaired Interest Only 79% of the mortgage book paying principal and interest Restructures 98% paying at least interest only or greater Bank policy to re-underwrite mortgage credit for customers in difficulty to assess sustainability Full implementation of CCMA significant resources allocated Mortgage Arrears Resolution Strategy (MARS) sets out the process to help the Group support customers through engagement, modifications and restructures, whilst maximising recoveries Impairment provisions as a % of loans where arrears are greater than 90 days past due and/or impaired 2 PCAR 20 economic assumptions 3 Bank of Ireland Economic Research Unit 4 Reuters Consensus New longer term restructure options agreed with Central Bank of Ireland for implementation on a pilot basis Split mortgages Trade up/down negative equity mortgage 9

13 Mortgage Arrears Resolution Strategy (MARS) Short Term Medium / Long Term Formal restructuring arrangements Interest only Reduced payments (> interest only) Term extension Longer term forbearance options: Split mortgages Trade down negative equity Interest only Reduced payments (> interest only) Full implementation of CCMA Significant resources allocated and training undertaken for collections and front line staff: Each branch has key contact with specific responsibility to deal with arrears/pre-arrears cases Network Account Managers (NAMs) supporting enhanced customer engagement Centralised Arrears Support Unit (ASU) established Use of Standard Financial Statement (SFS) to obtain financial information for borrowers in arrears/pre-arrears Focus on Mortgage Arrears Resolution Strategy (MARS) New MARS unit established in Summer 202 providing singular focus and visibility to achieve MARS objectives Use of external expertise to leverage off experiences in the UK and US Comprehensive suite of forbearance options in place either on a temporary or permanent basis to facilitate sustainable repayment plans Increased focus on Buy to Let (BTL) arrears management and recovery strategies - rent receivers appointed to 500 properties (June 202) 0

14 Personal Insolvency Bill (draft) Resolution options Non-judicial Judicial DRN (3 years) DSA (up to 5 years) PIA (up to 6/7 years) Full write off of qualifying secured and unsecured debt up to 20,000 Net disposable income after reasonable expenses to be < 60 per month Assets and cash to be 400 or less (subject to certain exceptions) Settlement structure for unsecured debts greater than 20,000 No prospect of solvency in 5 years Creditor(s) meeting to approve (65% votes required) Settlement structure for secured and unsecured debt where secured liabilities are less 3m Must be co-operating with secured creditor(s) regarding Principal Private Residence for at least 6 months under MARP No prospect of solvency in 5 years Creditor(s) meeting to approve (65% votes of all creditors, 50% secured, 50% unsecured) Bankruptcy Threshold for debt > 20,000 Discharge from bankruptcy reduced to 3 years If bankrupt does not co-operate or has hidden or failed to disclose assets, court may extend this period up to 8 years Personal Insolvency Bill provides for judicial and three non-judicial resolution options for consumers deemed under the provisions of the draft legislation to have unsustainable indebtedness levels The Bill, as currently drafted, amends existing bankruptcy provisions by reducing the timescale for discharge from bankruptcy from twelve years to a proposed three year period The Bill also introduces three routes to debt resolution as an alternative to bankruptcy namely: Debt Relief Notice (DRN) Debt Settlement Arrangement (DSA) Personal Insolvency Arrangement (PIA) The Bill provides for the establishment of the Insolvency Service of Ireland to operate the new non-judicial debt resolution processes Personal Insolvency Practitioners propose solutions to creditors on behalf of debtors

15 Funding position continuing to stabilise Customer deposits E7bn E72bn E65bn E35bn E2bn E8bn E36bn E27bn E8bn E35bn E29bn E8bn Ebn Dec 200 Dec 20 Jun 202 n Retail Ireland n Corporate n Retail UK n BOISS related Customer deposits Key focus: Further reduce the rate paid for deposits Further reduce the level of deposits covered by ELG Strength of customer deposit franchise Loan to deposit ratio of 36% at June 202 Post Office deposits have increased by bn since December 20. Enhanced Post Office relationship demonstrates further endorsement and commitment - existing contract extended by 3 years to 2023 E70bn E33bn E20bn E7bn Wholesale funding profile E5bn E23bn E7bn Ebn E53bn E28bn E5bn E0bn Dec 200 Dec 20 Jun 202 Wholesale funding Increase in wholesale funding primarily reflects the IBRC repo transaction - 2.8bn Group made a net incremental investment of.5bn in Irish Sovereign and Government Guaranteed debt as part of the Group s participation in the LTRO No ELA since December 20 Term of ECB drawings extended by 3 year LTRO - 0.8bn (excluding.5bn Irish bonds) n Monetary Authorities n Private secured n Private unsecured 2

16 Group s funding strategy Proportion of Retail deposits has increased % 20% 20% 6% 42% 39% 49% 89% 84% 80% 80% 6% 58% 5% Funding strategy The Group s aim is to fund its loan portfolios substantially through deposits and term funding while maintaining prudent capital and liquidity ratios Target a loan to deposit ratio of 20% by December 204 Drive deposit strategies through the strength of our franchise and the scale of our distribution Deleveraging is reducing the reliance on wholesale funding Sept 2008 Dec 2009 Jun 200 Dec 200 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 202 E85bn 36% n Retail deposits n Corporate deposits Extension of maturity profile of wholesale funding E78bn 29% E6bn 32% E58bn 4% E70bn 32% E6bn 3% E5bn E53bn 55% 56% Sept 2007 Sept 2008 Dec 2009 Jun 200 Dec 200 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun Targets Customer deposits: E75bn - E80bn Wholesale funding: E25bn - E30bn Term funding ratio 7bn or 69% of Private Market wholesale funding had a remaining term to maturity of > year at June 202 Unsecured term funding maturity profile bn (during H2 202) bn bn n Total wholesale funding Term funding ratio Wholesale funding with a remaining term to maturity of greater than one year 3

17 Focused on medium term targets Measure 20 Jun 202 Target Progress Loans and advances to customers 02bn 98bn c. 90bn Financial Stability Group loan / deposit ratio 44% 36% 20% Capital Core tier ratio Core tier ratio (PCAR / EBA basis) 5.% 4.3% 4.9% 4.0% Buffer maintained over regulatory minimum On track for 204 delivery ELG covered liabilities ELG fees 42bn 449m 36bn 22m Fully disengaged Rebuilding Profitability Net interest margin.33%.20% >2.0% Cost / income ratio 79% 92% <50% Impairment charges.9bn 0.9bn 55bps - 65bps Timing will reflect interest rates and pace of economic recovery Loans and advances to customers are stated net of impairment provisions D339 Oct 2 4