Oil Cheap, Natural Gas Cheaper
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- Julian Collins
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1 Oil Cheap, Natural Gas Cheaper Summary and Recommendation Continued growth in oil consumption despite high taxes in consuming countries demonstrates that the real value of the commodity is higher than current quotes. Light, Sweet Crude Oil at $60 a barrel is just $1.43 a gallon and the refining margin is less than $10 a barrel, $0.24 a gallon, for the next twelve months in the futures market. Contrast that with the retail price of $5 a gallon or more in high-tax consuming countries. Natural gas is more undervalued than oil except for next winter in the UK where the first quarter 2006 price is now quoted at the oil equivalent of more than $75 a barrel. With six-year natural gas trading at a new high we rank 14 stocks by global concentration on the premium fuel. New High for Six-Year Natural Gas The 72-Month Natural Gas Strip that we calculate from New York Mercantile Exchange futures reached a new high of $7.44 in our weekly tally (see chart Six-Year and One-Year Natural Gas Futures). Since that price is just 64% of the oil equivalent at 5:1 there remains ample opportunity for the upward price trend to continue (see chart Natural Gas Six-Year Futures Strip and 40-Week Average). Six-Year and One-Year Natural Gas and Oil Futures Latest Five Weekly Data Points and Trend Dollars Per Million BTUs /6/05 6/13/05 6/20/05 6/27/05 7/4/05 12 Mo Natural Gas Mo Natural Gas Month Oil Strip Month Oil Strip Dollars Per Barrel Neither he nor his spouse trade a subject stock within a week before or after a change in rating. 1
2 Natural Gas Six-Year Futures Strip and 40-Week Average (Constant Delivery Volume for 72 Months) 12/28/2001 2/28/2002 4/28/2002 6/28/2002 8/28/ /28/ /28/2002 2/28/2003 4/28/2003 6/28/2003 8/28/ /28/ /28/2003 2/28/2004 4/28/2004 6/28/2004 8/28/ /28/ /28/2004 2/28/2005 4/28/2005 6/28/2005 Dollars Per Million Btu As attractive as oil producers appear to be, we think investors should consciously allocate a portion of their McDep Energy Portfolio to natural gas. Stocks with more representation in natural gas include those listed below. Rank by Present Value Concentration on Global Natural Gas North Rest Amer. of World Global Natural Natural Natural Oil Down- Gas Gas Gas Prod'n stream Total McDep (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (US$mm) Ratio San Juan Basin Royalty Trust , XTO Energy Inc , Encana Corporation , Burlington Resources , Cimarex Energy Company , Devon Energy Corporation , Anadarko Petroleum Corp , Energy Partners Ltd , Unocal Corporation , Marathon Oil Corporation , Encore Acquisition Company , Exxon Mobil Corporation , Petro-Canada , Norsk Hydro ASA , Kurt H. Wulff, CFA Neither he nor his spouse trade a subject stock within a week before or after a change in rating. 2
3 Oil and Gas Producers Rank by McDep Ratio: Market Cap and Debt to Present Value Price Net ($/sh) Market Present Debt/ Symbol/ 1-Jul Shares Cap Value Present McDep Rating 2005 (mm) ($mm) ($/sh) Value Ratio Mega Cap Shell Transport and Trading Co. plc SC B ,587 94, Royal Dutch Petroleum RD B , , BP plc BP B , , Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM B , , Total S.A. TOT B , , Chevron Corporation CVX B , , Total or Median 1,100, Producer/Refiners - Large Cap and Mid Cap Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S , Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO B , Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B , Petro-Canada PCZ B , Suncor Energy SU B , ConocoPhillips COP B ,420 83, Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B , PetroChina Company Ltd (10%) PTR B , Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B , Total or Median 230, Independent Natural Gas and Oil - Large Cap and Mid Cap Encana Corporation ECA B , Unocal Corporation UCL B , XTO Energy Inc. XTO B , CNOOC Limited (29%) CEO B , Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY B , Burlington Resources BR B , Devon Energy Corporation DVN B , Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B , Total or Median 176, Independent Natural Gas and Oil - Small Cap Berry Petroleum Company BRY B , Energy Partners Ltd. EPL B , Cimarex Energy Company XEC B , Encore Acquisition Company EAC B , Total or Median 7, Income Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. KMP S , Kinder Morgan Management, LLC KMR S , San Juan Basin Royalty Trust SJT , Pengrowth Energy Trust PGH , Enerplus Resources Fund ERF , Canadian Oil Sands Trust (US$) COSWF B , Total or Median 26, B = Buy, S2 = Short half unlevered position, S3 = Short quarter unlevered position McDep Ratio = Market cap and Debt to present value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse trade a subject stock within a week before or after a change in rating. 3
4 Oil and Gas Producers Rank by EV/Ebitda: Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Deprec. Price Adjstd Divd or ($/sh) Resrvs/ PV/ EV/ Distrib Symbol/ 1-Jul Prod Ebitda Ebitda P/E NTM Rating 2005 NTM NTM NTM NTM (%) Mega Cap Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM B Total S.A. TOT B BP plc BP B Shell Transport and Trading Co. plc SC B Royal Dutch Petroleum RD B Chevron Corporation CVX B Median Producer/Refiners - Large Cap and Mid Cap Kinder Morgan, Inc. KMI S Imperial Oil Limited (30%) IMO B Suncor Energy SU B Marathon Oil Corporation MRO B Petro-Canada PCZ B PetroChina Company Ltd (10%) PTR B ConocoPhillips COP B Norsk Hydro ASA NHY B Lukoil Oil Company LUKOY B Median Independent Natural Gas and Oil - Large Cap and Mid Cap XTO Energy Inc. XTO B Encana Corporation ECA B Burlington Resources BR B Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY B Unocal Corporation UCL B Anadarko Petroleum Corp. APC B CNOOC Limited (29%) CEO B Devon Energy Corporation DVN B Median Independent Natural Gas and Oil - Small Cap Berry Petroleum Company BRY B Encore Acquisition Company EAC B Cimarex Energy Company XEC B Energy Partners Ltd. EPL B Median Income Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. KMP S Kinder Morgan Management, LLC KMR S San Juan Basin Royalty Trust SJT Pengrowth Energy Trust PGH Enerplus Resources Fund ERF Canadian Oil Sands Trust (US$) COSWF B Median EV = Enterprise Value = Market Cap and Debt; Ebitda = Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization; NTM = Next Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2006; P/E = Stock Price to Earnings; PV = Present Value of oil and gas and other businesses Neither he nor his spouse trade a subject stock within a week before or after a change in rating. 4
5 Index of Recent Research Stock Ideas Date Symbol Stock Theme 29-Jun LUKOY Lukoil Oil Company Profits and Taxes Rising 23-Jun CEO CNOOC, Unocal, Chevron Bidding Battle 23-Jun KMx Kinder Morgan Unlevered Underperformer 8-Jun CEO CNOOC Ltd Unocal Bid? 8-Jun PTR PetroChina Company Limited News Pending 8-Jun OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation Raise Net Present Value to $94 a Share 6-Jun NHY Norsk Hydro ASA European Natural Gas Awakes 3-Jun EPL Energy Partners, Ltd. Exploration Exposure 1-Jun * RD Royal Dutch Petroleum Nice Return for Low Risk 1-Jun * SC Shell Transport & Trading Company, p.l.c. Nice Return for Low Risk 1-Jun * BP BP p.l.c. Nice Return for Low Risk 1-Jun * XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation Nice Return for Low Risk 31-May * ECA EnCana Corporation Clean Fuel Supplier 31-May * DVN Devon Energy Corporation Clean Fuel Supplier 31-May * BR Burlington Resources, Inc. Clean Fuel Supplier 31-May * APC Anadarko Petroleum Corporation Clean Fuel Supplier 26-May * UCL Unocal Corporation Buy Chevron at a Discount 26-May * CVX ChevronTexaco Corporation Reduce Net Present Value to $70 a Share 25-May * XEC Cimarex Energy Company Natural Gas Growth 23-May * SU Suncor Energy Inc. Syncrude Sister 20-May * COP ConocoPhillips Raise Net Present Value to $140 a Share 16-May * EAC Encore Acquisition Company Momentum Test 11-May * XTO XTO Energy Inc. Raise Net Present Value to $36 a Share 9-May * TOT Total S.A. Raise Net Present Value to $120 a Share 6-May * IMO Imperial Oil Limited Oil Sands Strategy 5-May * BRY Berry Petroleum Company Oil in the Kitty Litter 29-Apr * MRO Marathon Oil Corporation Between China and Canada 28-Apr * SJT San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Ten Bagger 27-Apr * PCZ Petro-Canada Oil Sands Strategy 26-Apr * COSWF Canadian Oil Sands Trust If You Could Own Only One Meter Reader - A Weekly Analysis 5-Jul Oil Cheap, Natural Gas Cheaper 28-Jun * Exchange Dollars for Oil and Gas 21-Jun * Oil Sands Miners 14-Jun * Canada Re-Capp 7-Jun * Rest of World Natural Gas 31-May * Europe Bids Natural Gas Higher 24-May * Clean Air Tradeoff Indicator * Archived on Also see U.S. Natural Gas Royalty Trusts - A Weekly Analysis, and Single-Trust Analyses Neither he nor his spouse trade a subject stock within a week before or after a change in rating. 5
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