Better Trading with the Guppy Multiple Moving Average
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1 Better Trading with the Guppy Multiple Moving Average Daryl Guppy Author of Share Trading, Market Trading Tactics,Chart Trading, Better Stock Trading, Snapshot Trading, Trend Trading GUPPY MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE APPLICATIONS Mid trend entry on temporary price weakness Exit confirmation when trends end Breakout trades most appropriate type of opportunity trading Downtrend rallies MOVING AVERAGE FAILURE Moving average crossovers tell us little in real time about the probability of future action Which stock shows up trend continuation? Which stock shown down trend continuation? Stock A Stock B 1
2 PRICE AGREEMENT AND ANALYSIS All potential market participants agree on buy price analysis TRACKING SHORT TERM VALUE When there is a agreement on price and value then we must outbid our competitors to buy stock Traders are the most aggressive group of buyers Selection of exponential short term averages - TRADERS Daily chart TRACKING LONG TERM VALUE When there is a agreement on price and value then we must outbid our competitors to buy stock Investors are slower to move Their support is essential for any successful trend change Traders agreement decision point Daily chart 2
3 GMMA Chasing Gold Investor support is necessary for trend success Under weighting and over weighting drives fund behaviour Current price for gold stock $1.53 Traders probe for weakness and lead trends Investors follow but their support is essential for success Compression signals agreement on value and price across multiple time frames The GMMA reveals the relationship between traders and investors TRADING WITH THE GMMA Define the trend with straight edge lines Define the trend with moving averages Bounce or collapse? 10 day EMA 30 day EMA Trend breakout Moving averages do not help 3
4 Long term Short term Relationship between the two groups GMMA Analysis steps What is the potential breakout behaviour? How can we determine the balance of probability? Breakout decisions Trend line Resistance GMMA Analysis steps Long term Short term Relationship between the two groups 4
5 Is this safe to buy? Line chart analysis Breakout trading Downtrend GMMA Analysis steps Long term Short term Relationship between the two groups identification collapse rebound confirmed by: exit Bubble rebound Trading Bubbles 5
6 Trade exits Traders quibble about exits Traders looks for excuses not to exit GMMA helps separate false from genuine exit signals GMMA exit confirmation steps Determine the weight of confirmation evidence Long term group character Short term group character Relationship between the two groups 1 First penetration below long term group since start of up trend 2 Short term group compressed, turned down and has begun to expand 3 Long term group starting to turn down and compress Conclusion. GMMA confirms other exit signals Better trade exits Don t quibble Use a different method to understand the nature of the trend and to confirm exit signals If you lie to yourself here What makes you think you will act here? Or here as price falls through support? 6
7 Strategy one Quick trades from the long side in a downtrend Downtrend rallies Sell as short term group fails to break above long term group Strategy is most effective when matched with price leverage or taken using a derivative instrument Buy rebound Strategy two Short trades Enter short when previous rally trade is closed GMMA Trading short Guppy Multiple Moving Average Indicator, explorations and advanced system testing available in Metastock and OmniTrader Create it yourself as a template using 3, 5, 8, 10, 12, 15 EMA and 30, 35, 40, 45, EMA Detailed development and strategies in Trend Trading 7
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