Angela C. Taramasso and Giorgio Roth Geo Risk Management Lab, University of Genoa, Italy

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1 Flood maps information content for insurance and reinsurance industries Angela C. Taramasso and Giorgio Roth Geo Risk Management Lab, University of Genoa, Italy

2 SIGRA A Flood Insurance Risk Management Integrated System Presentation adapted from the official project documentation owner ANIA ( Telespazio and AGRICUNSULTING) Object - to develop a nation-wide integrated system to assess and manage insurance and re-insurance aspects of the flood risk

3 Develops flood scenarios simulation at the national scale taking into account temporal and spatial correlation among flood-prone sites Combines hazard and vulnerability information through probabilistic algorithms to develop a complete portfolio flood risk assessment Provides a direct evaluation of insurance-specific parameters for any portfolio with confidence limits Web-GIS platform with high resolution geo-coding SW Advanced visualization features

4 Identifies hierarchy of rivers segments with regards to the potential risk Includes and manages relevant official territorial data, including high resolution satellite data Includes remotely sensed surveys from laser scanner techniques for quasi-2d and 2D flood simulations Completes the official information where needed and computes flood forcing products (e.g. flow depth) where not available Data are homogenized, validated and corrected for the entire nation

5 Project step Study Areas Identification Reference Data base implementation Existing Hazard maps Collection & Analysis Ex-Novo Hazard maps production Scenarios Simulation Insurance/re-insurance risk parameters evaluation WEB-Based System Implementation

6 INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL ACTIVITIES RANKING CLASSIFICATION

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8 SIGRA Arno Basin Modeled flood prone areas Historically flooded areas

9 HYDROLOGIC MODELING HYDROLOGIC MODELING HYDROLOGIC MODELING Rainfall growth curve (VAPI) Design ietograph Semi-distributed R/R model Discharge growth curve Hydrograph with assigned return period Liguria Region Regional TCEV D D8 Gumbel Reduced Variable Simulated Discharge Confidence interval (95%) Frequency D10 D11 D14 D15 D Simulated Discharge for given T/ Simulated Discharge for T = 2.9 years Time [s]

10 Tempo SIGRA NATIONAL SCALE HYDRAULIC MODELING National Scale Cross-section section description Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04 Geom: PONTI RS = * 70 Hydraulic profile evolution Varatello Plan: iscmlc Legend WS PF 3 Elevation (m) Flooding areas determination Station (m) Legend WS 2 Q500 HAZARD MAPPING SOGLIA di PERICOLOSITA' RELATIVA Idrogramma Tirante Idrico, m S, N/m alta pericolosità 0.70 relativa Stabilità 0.40 Umana 0.30 bassa 0.20 pericolosità 0.10 relativa / 000 Pendenza, % 00 / 6 / / WS1 Q200 WS T50 Q50 Ground Bank Sta Elevation (m) Hazard maps determination WS PF 2 Crit PF 3 Crit PF 2 WS PF 1 Crit PF 1 Ground LOB ROB Main Channel Distance (m) Hydraulic level Vulnerability Vulnerability maps maps curves determination Portata I method II method III method

11 URBAN SCALE Rainfall growth curve (VAPI) Design ietograph Semi-distributed R/R model Discharge growth curve Hydrograph with assigned return period HYDRAULIC MODELING Cross-section section description 16 Hydraulic profile evolution Torrente Letimbro Plan: Plan 04 Urban Scale Legend Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04 Geom: PONTI RS = 2.56 BR D ponte ferroviario Cuneo-Nizza Modello Roja 3 - ROIA T500 Plan: Plan 04 Geom: PONTI RS = * WS PF 3 Crit PF 3 Elevation (m) Legend WS 2 Q500 WS1 Q200 WS T50 Q50 Ground Bank Sta Elevation (m) Legend WS 2 Q500 WS1 Q200 WS T50 Q50 Ground Bank Sta Quota s.l.m (m) WS PF 2 Crit PF 2 WS PF 1 Crit PF 1 Ground LOB ROB Station (m) Station (m) Distanza (m) HAZARD MAPPING Flooding areas determination Hazard maps determination Hydraulic level & velocity maps Vulnerability curves Vulnerability maps determination I method II method Tirante Idrico, m Soglia Idrodinamica Tirante-Velocità h = h (U ) 1.00 Spinta alta (N/m) pericolosità relativa Stabilità umana bassa 0.20 pericolosità 0.10 relativa Velocità, m/s

12 Depth of water Velocity of water

13 Scenarios Simulation Reference area. The analysis and the generation of flood events is performed at this scale. The Italian territory is divided in 288 reference areas. Event. Single flood described at the reference area scale. Scenario. All events within a 168 hours (7 days) duration. Historical scenario. A real scenario, observed in the past. Historical scenarios where derived from the AVI catalog. Synthetic scenario. A scenario generated through a statistic model, calibrated on the basis of the large scale knowledge provided by the AVI catalog. AEL, PML and MPL. Annual Expected Loss, Probable Maximum Loss and Maximum Possible Loss. They are needed to price insurances and to limit the overall risk assumed by a single company.

14 SIGRA 3/11/1966 4/11/1966 5/11/1966 6/11/1966 7/11/1966 AVI, Reference Areas and Historic Scenarios

15 SIGRA Vulnerability Tables BUILDING Characteristics: Material Floor Maintenance Protections

16 The SIGRA database contains: a map of flood prone areas. For each location it specify flood return period and flow depth. For a single target, this is enough to evaluate hazard and insurance risk parameters synthetic scenarios characterized by a space structure statistically similar to the one provided by the AVI historic catalog; the portfolio for which the estimation of insurance related parameters - AEL, PML and MPL - is needed (locations, values and vulnerabilities).

17 Through this procedure, the portfolio is excited by the ensemble of synthetic scenarios (providing space coherence). A damage is then associated to each event within each scenario taking into account 1) flood maps information at portfolio sites (providing actual hazard), 2) the values of the expositions and 3) their vulnerability. The damage series is finally analyzed to give AEL, PML and MPL.

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20 Thanks for your attention

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