Introduction to Process Engineering Economics. based on size of major equipment items allow to decide whether to invest in a detailed study

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1 Reliability of estimates Accuracy versus cost Cost structure for building a new plant Typical plant cost evaluation methods Lang's factors Happel's method Chauvel-Guthrie's method Examples and applications 1 Order-of-magnitude estimate based on similar plant short description and size Study estimate based on size of major equipment items allow to decide whether to invest in a detailed study Preliminary estimates minor equipments and site are examined allow to decide budget Definitive estimates almost complete data, but drawings not complete Detailed estimate complete drawings and specifications 2

2 Detailed estimate Definitive estimate Preliminary estimate Study estimate Order of magnitude Typical average man power Relative cost 5% for making estimates (man days) Cost of project < Type of estimate (M ) Order-of-magnitude Study Preliminary Definitive Detailed % 1% 0,5% 0,2% 0,1% 0% 20% 40% Possible error 4

3 Investment Distribution-Complete Plants (refinery type) % of total % of total % of process investment, investment, equipment, range average average Process units Utilities Offsite Buildings TOTAL ! " The exponent method can be used to extrapolate from a known investment Short cut methods provide order of magnitude estimates from very little information Most methods relate total investment to purchase cost of all main equipment items Lang's method uses an overall factor Happel's method uses separate factors to estimate installation labor for each class of equipment, and global factors for extra fees Guthrie's method uses detailed factors for each equipment type 6

4 # " Estimate purchase cost for all pieces of equipment ("Material") Estimate labor needed for installation ("Labor") Extra material and labor for piping, insulation, etc are estimated from ratios relative to sum of Material Installed cost of special equipment is added Overhead, engineering fee, contingency are also added This leads to total investment Follow calculations according to next table 7 # " $ Item Material Labor Vessels A : 10% of A : Towers, field fabricated B : 30-35% of B : Towers, prefabricated C : 10-15% of C : Exchangers D : 10% of D : Pumps, compressors and other machinery E : 10% of E : Instruments F : 10-15% of F : Key accounts (sum of A to F) G : 8

5 # " Item Material Labor Key accounts (sum of A to F) G : Insulation H = 5-10% of G : 150% of H : Piping I = 40-50% of G : 100% of I : Foundations J = 3-5% of G : 150 % of J : Buildings K = 4% of G : 70 % of K : Structures L = 4% of G : 20 % of L : Fireproofing M = 0,5 to 1% of G : 500 to 800% of M : Electrical N = 3-6% of G : 150% of N : Painting and cleanup O = 0,5 to 1% of G : 500 to 800% of O : Sum of material and labor P : 9 # " Sum of material and labor P : Installed cost of special equipment Q : Subtotal R = P+Q : Overheads S = 30 % of R : Total erected cost T = R+S : Engineering fee U = 10% of T : Contingency fee V = 10% of T : Total investment W = T+U+V : 10

6 %# " It provides a quick way of relating the final plant cost from the sum of all purchased equipment costs. Total investment = K * (purchased equipment costs) K is "Lang factor" K = 3.1 for solid processing K = 3.6 for mixed solid and fluids processing K = 4.7 for fluids processing Bach proposes to use separate factors for production units, storage and utilities. Hand recommends separate coefficients for each class of equipment. 11 " &'"# " Original method proposed by Guthrie is very complex : Factors are proposed for each class of equipment to evaluate all items in the installed cost as a function of a bare equipment cost. Plant capacity is accounted twice :» for each equipment, the base cost is related to capacity» multiplying factors are also capacity dependent Correction factors affect the bare equipment cost to account for :» different materials» equipment type or geometry» high pressure or temperature Indirect costs are evaluated by multiplying the direct costs by appropriate factors :» transportation, taxes, insurances (normally location dependent)» indirect field expenses = (equipment+manpower) * (size factor) * (manpower/equipment factor)» engineering fee = (equipment+manpower) * (type factor) * (size factor) * (manpower/equipment factor) 12

7 " &'"# "() Evaluate main base cost P B : from charts no material or structural correction Evaluate actual cost P R : with all corrections for material type or complexity Estimate factors from tables : f 1 = secondary equipment cost / main base cost f 2 = piping and valves / main base cost; may be corrected for material type as follows : f' 2 = f 2 (1+ ( P R - P B ) / P B ) f 3 = erection / main base cost f 4 = indirect field expenses / main base cost Correct costs for the project size (use f 5, next chart) Battery limit cost : P R + f 5 (P B f 5 + P B f 3 + P B f 4 ) 13 f5 1,2 * + air cooler 1,1 1 drums heat exch.&others columns, reactors 0, P R (MECU 94) 14

8 , Sometimes neglected from evaluation or rough evaluation when precison needed is low when several similar projects must be compared when the plant is located in a large industrial site Usually estimated as a percentage of the battery limit investment (30% to 40% in oil refining and petrochemistry) Utilities (steam, electricity, compressed air, refrigeration) may be shared by several plants use estimation charts cost of distribution network : site dependent Storage 2-3 months production in refinaries 4-8 days in petrochemical plants 15 " Air exhaust 2 Methanol absorption column Methanol distillation column 88 C 5 Water 30 C, Air wt % MeOH 12 Pump 1 Gas blower Surge tank 3 9 Column feed preheater Pump 30 C 55 C Water C Pump Steam Pump 7 6 Methanol condenser Product cooler Cooling water Cooling water Reflux drum 8 13 Recovered Methanol 38 C 16

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