How To Update A State Greenhouse Gas Inventory

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1 1 COLORADO GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY UPDATE PROJECT CDPHE Theresa Takushi Jim Dileo Steven Arnold Garry Kaufman APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update April 2013

2 Goals 2 Produce an updated, default inventory with 2020 projection by March 2013 Produce a workbook for future inventories Phased approach Run model in full default mode and establish baseline Document results and put in context of CU evaluation of internal assessment of 2007 CCS inventory Rerun modules with improvements and compare Consider black carbon assessment APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

3 1990 CAA Provides Direction EPA issues grants to States to begin work on GHG inventories 1998 Colorado GHG report completes the second phase of the grant process Electric Vehicle test program implements third phase of grant Additional updates based via Governor s direction APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

4 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update Accomplishments 4 Three previous State inventories, plus updates Two in-house 1990 s using EPA workbook approach, a 2000 update and a 2002 forecast WGA/WRAP/CCS 2007 update using EPA SIT model and other processes Used 1990, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020 Used EPA State Greenhouse Gas Inventory Tool (known as SIT or SGIT) plus added processes Two State Facilities Greening Government inventories completed Governor s executive order requires 5 year updates to whole state inventory Current effort targeted to develop draft in March 2013 based on default mode SIT

5 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update 5 Many local governments have created their own GHG inventories in Colorado (Aspen/Pitkin County, Boulder, Denver, Ft. Collins, etc.) Local inventories reflect varying levels of granularity depending on the availability of local data Local inventories produce a geographic patchwork of statewide emissions and do not all use the same methodology

6 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update WGA/WRAP/CCS 6 Western Governor s Association contracted with the Western Regional Air Partnership to produce a state-bystate western U.S. GHG inventory WRAP subcontracted to Center for Climate Strategies to perform the work Last inventory completed and published 2007 (On APCD Climate Change site With older inventories and updates)

7 Executive Order 7 In April 22, 2008 Governor Ritter signed an executive order requiring. CDPHE to plan for performing updates to the state s greenhouse gas emissions inventory, with the first update scheduled to be completed no later than 2012 and repeated every five years thereafter. APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

8 The Update 8 Considered top down versus bottom up inventory Past inventories for the State are all top down Over 20 local municipalities in Colorado have inventories, all bottom up Evaluation of the CCS inventory performed by CU team: Shortcomings identified Changes in regulations and legislation change assumptions from 2005 to 2020 Updated data change calculations APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

9 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update Top Down Approach Adopted 9 EPA released an update to the State Inventory Tool (SIT) (formerly State Greenhouse Inventory Tool) -Fall 2012 Model has ten modules & projection tool Consideration given to using Argonne Labs GREET model for transportation Consideration given to use CSU Agricultural and Forest model EPA continues to update each module with new data base links and improvement to calculations

10 The EPA State Inventory Tool (SIT)-Pros 10 Has 10 emissions modules Has a projection module Links major national data bases to calculation schemes Has consistency with other states Follows the international GHG protocol the U.S. agreed to follow for the national inventory Allows for customization of emission factors and activity assumptions Was updated by EPA in 2013 to improve the process using latest assumptions APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

11 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update National Major Stationary Source Inventory Improves Data

12 SIT Model Cons 12 One size fits all Difficult to track down national data bases and source of original information Spreadsheets complex and appear to have some data gaps Updates in 2010 data cause shifting sand National data bases often difficult to dissect to determine validity of assumptions APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

13 Black Carbon 13 Current SIT does not address EPA SPECIATE model used by CCS in the 2007 inventory Has multiple impacts in Colorado Fine particulate related to fire Impacts on visibility in urban and regional haze Impacts from new sources like natural gas flaring Role and contribution not well understood Inventory process challenging Natural fire; diesel; combustion sources; transport; APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

14 14 APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

15 Draft SIT Model Runs (2013 Analysis) (Million Metric Tons CO2e) Electrical Production (RCI) Fuel Use Transportation Fossil Fuel Industry Industrial Processes Waste Management Agriculture APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

16 Status and Next Steps 16 Status State facilities inventory completed Update of state inventory model runs and summary completed December 2012 Draft report scheduled for May 2013 Next Steps Finish documentation of default case Run projection case Publish draft for review Consider Colorado adjustments APCD Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update

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