Fixed Income Update Portfolio Positioning

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1 Fixed Income Update Portfolio Positioning April 2015 In 2014, we saw traditional relationships between equity and high yield performance diverge. Despite an improving U.S. economy Treasuries rallied along with equities. The strong performance of Treasuries toward the end of 2014 in particular, caused some investors to flock to that sector of the bond market. For perspective on the market today, we recently asked Carl Kaufman, Portfolio Manager of the Strategic Income Fund (OSTIX), for his thoughts on risks and opportunities based on his top-down and bottom-up research. How do you think about the risk and return attributes of Treasuries at this point in the cycle? Carl: Within our fixed income strategy, we only invest in areas of the bond market where we think potential returns outweigh risks, and we avoid investing in segments of the bond market we believe present the biggest risks. When assessing risk, we consider both interest rate risk and credit risk. While Treasuries do not expose investors to credit risk per se, we feel that in the current environment they expose investors to a great deal of interest rate risk. The yield offered by Treasuries is far too low to compensate for the interest rate risk that we see today. We currently have record low interest rates around the world. In Europe, interest rates have actually gone to negative. Even though U.S. yields are high in global terms, Treasury yields are very low in nominal terms. A 5-year Treasury note today provides a low yield of 1.3%, and the only way for this bond to provide a higher return than 1.3% per year is if interest rates go down from here. Let s assume the following extremely unlikely scenario: Disaster strikes, rates drop to zero and they stay there for three years. If this were to happen, that 5-year Treasury bond would only provide a return of 2.2% per year for the next three years. It is much more likely, however, that interest rates will eventually move up from here, resulting in a return on the 5- year Treasury of less than 1.3% per year. If interest rates hold steady or rise, we expect low to negative returns for Treasuries. That s why our portfolio currently has no exposure to Treasuries or investment grade bonds. Why did short-term high yield bonds underperform Treasuries and investment grade corporate bonds in 2014? Carl: A steep drop in energy prices took its toll on the energy subset of the high yield market in the fourth quarter of The downturn spread to other areas of the high yield market, unnerving investors and causing many to move away from high yield bonds and back into Treasuries and investment grade bonds. Investors continue to chase returns within the fixed income market. When high yield bonds performed well in 2013 and investors suffered losses in their investment grade holdings, they flocked to high yield. But when Treasuries performed relatively well in 2014, many investors moved away from high yield and back into Treasuries and investment grade bonds toward the end of the year. When investors made redemptions, high yield portfolio managers were forced to sell. Many large managers and ETFs chose to sell their short-dated bonds, which presented us with a good opportunity to buy more short-term callable paper at higher yields. Historically, short-term high yield bonds have been

2 Portfolio Positioning: April 2015 very defensive over time, and they have already started to bounce back this year. Given your view of the excess interest rate risk in Treasuries and investment grade bonds in general, how are you positioning your portfolio? Carl: Our strategy is unconstrained, so the vast majority of our portfolio is currently invested in short-term high yield bonds. We believe that over time, these bonds will provide better returns and less volatility than Treasuries and investment grade bonds. Here s why: The short-term high yield bonds in our portfolio offer much higher yields than Treasuries and investment grade bonds. Many bonds in the portfolio offer very attractive yields in this extremely low interest rate environment, with far less interest rate risk than Treasuries and investment grade bonds because of their short duration. And despite our large allocation to high yield bonds, we try to avoid taking on significant credit risk. Our deep credit research, which carefully assesses each company s ability to repay us, is designed to mitigate that. How long have you had such a large position in short-term high yield bonds? Carl: We have had a large position in high yield bonds since We essentially sold out of Treasuries in the fall of 2008 and started adding to our corporate bond position in the fourth quarter of that year. In order to understand why we have had a large position in high yield bonds for the past six years, we need to talk about interest rate versus deleveraging cycles. Prior to 2008, we had a steady stream of interest rate cycles that lasted on average 4-5 years. These cycles gave us the opportunity to maneuver our portfolio around; we could buy Treasuries when rates were high and we were about to go into a recession, then we could switch back into high yield and convertibles when rates were low and starting to lift the economy out of recession. Since 2009, we have been in a different type of cycle a deleveraging cycle. Deleveraging cycles are much longer than the typical 4-5 year cycle. In fact, the last deleveraging cycle we had lasted from 1932 to 1951! In this current deleveraging cycle, we haven t had much opportunity to shift back and forth between bond market segments. Yields have remained low for a long period of time, and we think high yield bonds have remained the most attractive segment of the bond market. Over the past three and five years, high yield returns have outpaced Treasuries by over 400 basis points, which is meaningful in a low interest rate environment.* We expect that rates will either stay low or move up from here but haven t a clue as to the timing. For that reason, we have not wanted to be exposed to Treasuries, and we have gradually shortened the duration of the portfolio as this cycle has matured. Has your portfolio ever had a zero allocation to high yield bonds? Carl: No. We have always had at least some exposure to high yield bonds. Our investment approach has consistently presented us with good investment opportunities within the high yield space. If there comes a time when 10-year Treasuries pay 6-7% and we think rates have peaked, it s possible that we could move completely out of high yield bonds and into Treasuries. We should also point out that when we started the fixed income strategy at Osterweis, we conducted research to help us understand the return characteristics of the various segments of the fixed income markets. It was interesting to see that while calendar year performance varies meaningfully between the various segments of the market, shorter duration high yield bonds have tended to deliver consistently strong relative and absolute returns over rolling five year periods. (See Table 1.) Under what conditions would you consider investing in Treasuries again? Carl: We would need to see a return on Treasuries that we feel adequately compensates our investors for taking interest rate risk. Right now, Treasuries don t pay enough to take on that risk. In order to get to that point, we would need to see a return to a more typical 2

3 Portfolio Positioning: April 2015 Table 1: Rolling Five Year Returns (as of 12/31/14) INDEX ML Corp. Master ML Corp 10+ yrs ML Corp 1-3 yrs ML TSY Master ML TSY 10+ yrs ML TSY 1-3 yrs ML HY Master ML HY 1-3yr* Highest Return 2nd Highest 2nd Lowest Lowest Return Source: RIMES interest rate cycle, like those that existed prior to Why is Rite Aid, your largest holding, an attractive investment? Carl: The size of each position within our portfolio is relative to the security s potential return and inherent risk. Our largest positions are those in which we have the most confidence, or said another way, those about which we worry the least. We currently have only two positions in the portfolio above a 3% weighting, and the top position is Rite Aid. Rite Aid is a large company with $25 billion in revenues. The Rite Aid bond that we own offers a coupon of 9.25%, which is a very high interest rate in this environment. Rite Aid issued this high yield bond in order to finance an acquisition that wasn t initially successful. At that point, Rite Aid wasn t a credit with which we were comfortable. Rather, we bought the bond after Rite Aid became a much improved credit. Its troubled acquisition has begun to work, it is now generating free cash flow, and its leverage ratio has been cut in half. We think the bonds are very attractive compared to the alternatives, particularly something like a 5- Year Treasury. Standard & Poor s (S&P) still has a CCC+ rating for Rite Aid (S&P hasn t changed Rite Aid s credit rating since 2013, when it less strong than it is today), but our credit research indicates that it should be rated higher. Many managers with a portfolio of both investment grade and high yield bonds have a constraint in place that limits the amount of CCC paper they can own. This has limited the number of investors that are able to buy this security, allowing us to take advantage of a structural inefficiency in the market. How often do you re-evaluate your holdings once they are part of the portfolio? Carl: The three experienced investors that make up our investment team monitor and reassess the portfolio s holdings on a daily basis. We all monitor every name as a team, so we have three sets of eyes on every holding every day. How do you mitigate risk within your high yield allocation? Carl: First, we mitigate risk through name diversification and through the size of each position. We size our positions according to the risk in each name. For example, we aren t going to take a large position in a small company that has cyclical exposure and is thinly traded. We re willing to take bigger positions in larger, more stable companies. We monitor and limit how many positions we have over 3

4 Portfolio Positioning: April %. Most names represent less than 1.5% of the portfolio. Second, as a team, we conduct very thorough due diligence on each name. All three of us get to know each company very well. We don t just look at financials, but instead we get to know each company s business and strategy, and we meet with management teams in person. Third, although we build our portfolio company-bycompany, we do keep an eye on the industry and sector exposures. We try to limit exposure to those areas of the market that tend to carry more risk, such as financials, biotech and energy. Is it easier to manage credit risk in a shortdated portfolio? Carl: Yes. Many of our short-term high yield holdings are less than two years from maturity (or callability). It s much easier to manage credit risk when you only have to predict whether or not a company is going to be able to pay back principal and interest over the next 1-2 years. It is much more difficult to predict that over the next 10 years. Also, we believe we have a better handle on what the macro environment is going to be over the short term versus the long term. How does your portfolio differ from other portfolios that have a large allocation to high yield bonds? Carl: We tend to hold fewer positions in our portfolio for one thing. A typical high yield fund has names. In our opinion that raises the likelihood of having a market-like default experience. We have significantly fewer names to monitor and have only had one bond in our portfolio so much as defer an interest payment. Also, because we don t have to worry about how our portfolio looks compared to a benchmark, we tend to have less holdings overlap compared to benchmark-oriented managers. searching for yield by buying longer-dated paper. While this might currently provide more yield than our portfolio, those managers are taking interest rate risk, exposing their portfolios and investors to significant declines if and when interest rates rise. What would cause you to decrease your allocation to high yield bonds? Carl: Interest rates would have to move significantly higher in order for us to decrease our allocation to short-term high yield bonds. Alternatively, if we felt like we were moving into a recession without a prior rise in interest rates, we would likely simply move to higher cash and very short-dated bonds. If there was a significant correction in the equity markets, we would also look for compelling investments in convertible bonds. With equity markets near historic highs we are not finding much value in convertible bonds right now, but that could be an area of opportunity in the future. We like to buy busted convertible bonds when they are selling below par and offering attractive yields similar to nonconvertible issues. In those cases we are not sacrificing much yield and still have the potential equity upside. Do you worry about stock market corrections putting pressure on the portfolio? Carl: While high yield tends to correlate more with equities, the short-term nature of our bonds tends to help them decouple from the equity market. If there is an equity correction, since we tend to have bonds maturing regularly, we may have the opportunity to put money to work at very attractive yields when others are pressured to sell. We typically keep cash on hand and usually have good visibility on cash coming in from bond redemptions and maturities. We also keep a list of bonds that we would like to own when the price is right. As a result, we can move quickly during market corrections to add either new or existing names to the portfolio at very attractive prices. Additionally, we take great pains to be less exposed to interest rate risk. Many high yield managers hold bonds with longer maturities than ours; they are 4

5 Portfolio Positioning: April 2015 When do you think the Federal Reserve will start raising rates, and how might that affect the performance and composition of the portfolio? Carl: We don t know when the Federal Reserve will start raising rates. I m not sure they know either. What we do know is that investors with a large core weighting in Treasuries and investment grade bonds will get hurt when rates eventually rise. Even if rates stay where they are for some time to come, Treasuries and investment grade bonds are providing investors with very low yields. That s why our portfolio has a large allocation to short-term high yield bonds. What role do you think your absolute returnoriented, unconstrained strategy should play in a portfolio? Carl: An unconstrained strategy, even if it s primarily invested in one segment of the bond market for an extended period of time, should be the core of a fixed income portfolio. Since unconstrained fixed income managers all manage their portfolios differently, it might make sense to hold two or three unconstrained strategies as the core of a portfolio. When rates are high and are expected to go lower, that s the time to hold a satellite investment in a longer-dated Treasury or investment grade fund. Or, after a period when maximum damage has been done to economically sensitive sectors such as high yield and convertibles, such as in 2002 or 2008, it may make sense to add a distressed fund as a satellite investment. 5

6 Disclosure Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This commentary contains the current opinions of the authors as of the date above which are subject to change at any time. This commentary has been distributed for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation or offer of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The Osterweis Funds are available by prospectus only. The Funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The summary and statutory prospectuses contain this and other important information about the Funds. You may obtain a summary or statutory prospectus by calling toll free at (866) , or by visiting Please read the prospectus carefully before investing to ensure the Fund is appropriate for your goals and risk tolerance. Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. The Osterweis Strategic Income Fund may invest in debt securities that are un-rated or rated below investment grade. Lower-rated securities may present an increased possibility of default, price volatility or illiquidity compared to higherrated securities. The Fund may invest in foreign and emerging market securities, which involve greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. These risks may increase for emerging markets. Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. This risk is usually greater for longer-term debt securities. Small- and mid-capitalization companies tend to have limited liquidity and greater price volatility than large-capitalization companies. Higher turnover rates may result in increased transaction costs, which could impact performance. From time to time, the Fund may have concentrated positions in one or more sectors subjecting the Fund to sector emphasis risk. The Fund may invest in municipal securities which are subject to the risk of default. Osterweis Strategic Income Fund Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/15 (% of Total Portfolio) Rite Aid Corp. 9.25% 3.59 Edgen Murray Corp. 144A 8.75% 3.49 Alere Inc % 2.78 CHS/Community Health 8.00% 2.55 VWR Funding Inc. 7.25% 2.10 Icahn Enterprises/Fin 3.50% 2.00 Bi-Lo LLC/Bi-Lo Fin Corp. 144A 8.625% 1.79 Regis Corp. 144A 5.75% 1.73 Hertz Corp. 7.50% 1.63 Castle (Am) & Co % 1.38 Free cash flow represents the cash that a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain and expand the company s asset base. Free cash flow is important because it allows a company to pursue opportunities that enhance shareholder value. Duration measures the potential volatility of the price of a debt security, or the aggregate market value of a portfolio of debt securities, prior to maturity. Securities with longer durations generally have more volatile prices than securities of comparable quality with shorter durations. Treasuries are guaranteed by the U.S. government while high yield securities are not. High yield bonds are typically issued by companies considered to be more risky, volatile and/or more likely to default. Treasuries may tend to be easier to sell than high yield securities, particularly during market corrections. 6

7 Disclosure Holdings may change at any time due to ongoing portfolio management. References to specific investments should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the securities. Current and future holdings are subject to risk. Absolute return strategies are not intended to outperform stocks and bonds during strong market rallies. An absolute return fund may not achieve its goals and may underperform during periods of strong positive market performance. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect from loss. A basis point is a unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1%. Credit quality weights by rating were derived from the most recent data available as determined by Standard & Poor s. Grades are assigned to bonds by private independent rating services such as Standard & Poor s and these grades represent their credit quality. The issues are evaluated based on the bond issuer s financial strength, or its ability to pay a bond s principal and interest in a timely fashion. Ratings are expressed as letters ranging from AAA, which is the highest grade, to D, which is the lowest grade. * The references to Treasuries and high yield refer to the Barclays U.S. Treasury Index and BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield (Master II) Index, respectively. The Barclays U.S. Treasury Index consists of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of one year or more. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield (Master II) Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. One cannot invest directly in an index. The Osterweis Funds are distributed by Quasar Distributors, LLC. [13968] 7

8 Disclosure osterweis.com (800)

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