West Renewable Energy Markets: The calm before the storm? Mid-C Seminar July 22, 2015

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1 West Renewable Energy Markets: The calm before the storm? Mid-C Seminar July 22, 2015

2 Evolution Markets Evolution Markets is a leading commodities brokerage and advisory firm focused on environmental and clean energy markets. Environmental Markets Renewable Energy Credits Carbon Credits & Allowances SO2 Emissions Allowances Nox Emissions Allowances Houston/Galveston Nox RECLAIM (L.A. Nox & Sox) Weather derivatives Catastrophic Risk Energy Markets Structured Transactions (PPAs, hedges, etc.) Biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, wood pellets) U.S. Power (PJM, ERCOT, etc.) OTC Physical Coal OTC Coal Derivatives Oil derivatives Natural Gas Nuclear Fuels Evolution works seamlessly across multiple commodities to ensure our clients realize maximum value for their assets. To date, our company has brokered more than $100 billion in energy and environmental transactions. Evolution has been first in many emerging commodity markets and has structured transactions for over 100 Fortune 500 companies. 2

3 Today s Conversation On today s call we ll quickly summarize the West Renewable Energy market by remembering where we ve been, taking stock of where we are, and helping to frame the discussion about where we re going. As with most moments that portend change out West, there are plenty of questions and many more competing answers. 3

4 Market Summary: Broad Strokes Over the last decade, WECC RPS demand has driven massive growth in renewables capacity Renewable energy commodity prices have responded to supply-demand imbalances to meet project finance requirements, enabling investment Last few years have seen a relative pause in market activity as buyers have absorbed previously contracted supply and RPS s hit short-term plateau Commodity prices for renewable energy have plummeted as a result of this pause in procurement activity Going forward, we must take into account the depth of demand for new assets vs. power prices, efficiency gains made in technology and project finance, and the integration challenges facing additional RE installations in4 the West

5 Market Summary: Historical Build 7, WECC RPS Eligible Asset Development 6, , Megawatts (MW 4, , MW 2, , So much has already been built, is there more to come?

6 Market Summary: PPA Activity PPA and REC Markets Closely Linked PPA market has been highly concentrated and very limited as of late PPA transactions that have occurred have been all but exclusively contracted with pre-construction solar assets in California (and some in the southwest) Utility Scale solar PPA levels in the west appear to have stabilized after a period of massive price reductions due to: 6 Cheap natural gas and record lower power prices Global compression in solar component costs Emergence of new efficiencies in renewable energy project finance WECC PPA market activity has been very limited

7 Market Summary: REC Pricing $45.00 WECC RECS: Historical Price Settlement REC Price $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 WECC RPS Bundled RECs WECC RPS Unbundled RECs Green-e WECC RECs Short-term WECC REC and Green Power prices mired in near term oversupply conditions $5.00 $0.00 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q REC Prices follow new asset requirements Significant one way downward price pressure

8 Market Summary: Key Questions As we look to the future of WECC Renewables pricing, we have to answer three basic questions: 1) Demand Growth: How much more new build is required to meet existing WECC RPS programs? 2) California: Will California mandate 50% Renewables, and if so, where will it come from? 3) Asset Deployment: What power prices are required and what impact will integration challenges have on everything? Framing the key drivers of growth and uncertainty 8

9 Demand Growth: Big Numbers NREL estimates demand of TWhs by 2025 under current law GW of New Build Required WECC Wide 9

10 California The Elephant in the room CA RPS to 50% Unprecedented commitment to renewable energy Gov. Brown, CPUC Commissioner Florio Senate Bill 350 Every research group in California that has examined the issue has indicated the ambitions are realistic, he said. The real issue is all of the different groups that have different perspectives on how to meet the targets and different recommended pathways. "That just really highlights that we really could do it," -- Daniel M. Kammen, Director of Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab UC Berkeley 10

11 California 11

12 Asset Deployment: Pricing Key drivers: Cost of renewables Intermittent Baseload Market price for power Cost of integration What resources are going to set the price? 12

13 Asset Deployment: Dynamics Two ways this can all play out. Slow intersection of relatively competitive generation types comingling over time De-minimis impacts to regional power prices and grid functionality. OR Sharp upward price pressure in short/medium term RECs and Green Power Challenging asset deployment market Unprecedented integration challenges and the potential creation of the most flexible Grid in the U.S. Solution Spectrum: Diversity vs Concentration 13

14 Asset Deployment: Dynamics How aggressive will California be? As goes California, so goes the West LETS RECAP CA SB 350: 50% by GW new RE capacity for CA alone (over and above 33%) GW total WECC new RE capacity by 2030 NOW LET s VIEW IT IN CONTEXT OF: EIM Market Storage Law Strong indications for big demand side build out California s Policy tendencies have leaned towards concentrated and highly aggressive 14

15 West Renewables: Integration challenges: unprecedented Renewable Capacity does not add Resource Adequacy Over generation concerns CA as exporter Drought creating more extreme resource volatility What are the real integration costs Source: Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Will the capacity market ever make an impact? No matter what, this is going to be a huge challenge 15

16 Asset Deployment: Integration Source: Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. Integration costs of CA 50% RPS are big, hard to quantify 16

17 West Renewables Potential Impacts in the Future Will the pace of storage deployment dictate CA RPS policy or will broader regional solutions to CA RE requirements come back into vogue? A diverse RPS portfolio greatly reduces integration costs as compared to a mainly large solar scenario Intersection of CA 50% RPS with broader WECC RPS demand In State vs. out of State Large Solar vs. Diverse Technologies Integration Challenges 17

18 West Renewables: Potential Impacts in the Future How will IPP s deliver renewable power that can meet or beat integration costs? What structured off-take solutions will create the most flexibility for IPP s to meet project finance requirements? Will a diverse approach by California policy enable a more fungible and inter-related WECC wide renewable energy market? 18

19 Contact Info Ben Rees Director, Renewable Energy Markets Evolution Markets, Inc. P: M: Annual Customer Survey 2014 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2013 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2012 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2011 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2010 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2009 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2008 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2007 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2006 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2005 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2004 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 2003 Renewables Energy Certificates North America: Best Broker 19

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