REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE Q3-2015

Transcription

1 REVIEW OF PERFORMANCE Q Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC) Wednesday, November 4 th 2015 Intact Financial Corporation

2 Charles Brindamour Chief Executive Officer Intact Financial Corporation

3 Key points & highlights Net operating income per share of $1.47 with a combined ratio of 93.2% All business lines and regions contributed to underlying DPW growth of 8%, including 6% organic growth Strong financial position with MCT of 195% and operating ROE of 16.9% for the last 12 months despite challenging capital market conditions Important notes: Unless otherwise noted, DPW refers to DPW as reported under IFRS, excluding industry pools (referred to as DPW or reported DPW in this presentation). All underwriting results and related ratios exclude the MYA, but include our share of the results of jointly held insurance operations, unless otherwise noted. The expense and general expense ratios are presented herein net of other underwriting revenues. As a result, total revenues exclude other underwriting revenues. Net investment income includes our share of the results of jointly held insurance operations, unless otherwise noted. Catastrophe claims are any one claim, or group of claims, equal to or greater than $7.5 million, related to a single event. A large loss is defined as a single claim larger than $0.25 million but smaller than the catastrophe threshold of $7.5 million. A non-catastrophe weather event is a group of claims which is considered significant but that is smaller than the catastrophe threshold of $7.5 million, related to a single weather event All references to excess capital in this presentation include excess capital in the P&C subsidiaries at 170% MCT plus net liquid assets outside of the P&C insurance subsidiaries, unless otherwise noted. Intact Financial Corporation 3

4 Outperforming our financial targets $ $4.50 $4.00 $ bps target $ $ $ $1.50 $1.00 $ $0.00 YTD-11 YTD-12 YTD-13 YTD-14 YTD year avg. H NOIPS growth Our YTD-2015 net operating income per share of $4.40 represents a 4-year compound growth rate of 12% ROE outperformance We have consistently exceeded our 500 bps ROE outperformance target versus the industry* Industry data: IFC estimates based on MSA Research excluding Lloyd s, ICBC, SGI, SAF, MPI, Genworth and IFC. Intact Financial Corporation 4

5 P&C industry 12-month outlook We remain well-positioned to continue outperforming the Canadian P&C insurance industry in the current environment Premium growth Underwriting Return on equity Industry premiums are likely to increase at a low single-digit rate, with minimal growth in personal auto, mid single-digit growth in commercial lines and upper single-digit growth in personal property expected We expect future premium reductions in Ontario auto will be commensurate with government cost reduction measures We expect the current hard market conditions in personal property to continue as the magnitude of catastrophe losses in recent years negatively impacts industry results We believe the impact of continued low interest rates and limited underwriting profitability at the industry level have translated into firmer conditions in commercial auto, property and casualty lines We expect the industry s combined ratio to continue to improve in 2015 from the recent peak above 100% in 2013, though the level of investment income is unlikely to improve We expect the industry s ROE to trend back toward its long-term average of 10% over the next twelve months We believe we will outperform the industry s ROE by at least 500 basis points in the next 12 months Intact Financial Corporation 5

6 Strong broad-based growth Personal Lines Year-over-year underlying DPW growth Commercial Lines Year-over-year underlying DPW growth 11.1% Contribution from Jevco Contribution from CDI 9.5% 8.3% Contribution from Jevco 8.1% 6.4% 4.3% 5.7% 4.1% 4.9% 4.0% 2.0% 2.7% 3.7% 0.6% -3.2% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 1.1% 2.1% Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Intact Financial Corporation 6

7 Investing in growth Brands Brand awareness has increased notably though greater advertising presence, highlighting the Intact Insurance 30 minute claims guarantee, and continuing sports sponsorships. Digital experience We continued to invest in digital innovation, including faster quoting engines on both intact.ca and belairdirect.com websites. Diverse product offering We ve experienced a strong customer and broker response to our Lifestyle Advantage product. We ve been working on new product opportunities such as fleet telematics to provide consumers with the coverage and services they want. Intact Financial Corporation 7

8 Summary and key takeaways We have a sustainable competitive advantage versus the industry due to our disciplined approach and quality operations Our strong financial position enables us to take advantage of growth opportunities We continue our shareholder-friendly approach to capital management Intact Financial Corporation 8

9 Louis Marcotte Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Intact Financial Corporation

10 Q financial highlights (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q Q Change YTD-2015 YTD-2014 Change DPW 2,092 1,913 9% 6,010 5,589 8% DPW (underlying) 2,095 1,941 8% 6,014 5,686 6% Underwriting income % % Combined ratio 93.2% 93.2% % 94.4% (1.7) pts Net operating income per share to common $1.47 $1.37 7% $4.40 $ % shareholders 1 Earnings per share to common shareholders $0.95 $1.49 (36)% $3.74 $4.27 (12)% Operating return on common shareholders equity for the last 16.9% 14.3% 2.6 pts 12 months 1 Underlying DPW grew by 8% compared to Q3-2014, driven by organic growth initiatives, and included 2 points from our acquisition of CDI earlier this year Combined ratio was unchanged compared to Q as lower catastrophe losses were offset by several non-catastrophe weather events, large losses and slightly higher frequency 1 Refer to Section 5 - Non-IFRS financial measures of the MD&A Intact Financial Corporation 10

11 Personal lines (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q Q Change Combined Ratio Breakdown Personal Auto Underlying DPW % Underwriting income % Combined ratio 94.4% 95.8% (1.4) pts 24.4% 24.4% 70.0% 71.4% Q Q Expense Ratio Claims Ratio Underlying DPW increased on strong organic unit growth of 6%. Investments in brand, digital strategies and distribution networks drove organic premium and unit growth in improved market conditions Combined ratio improved in the quarter due to fewer catastrophe losses and favourable prior year claims development, including a benefit from industry pools Personal Property (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q Q Change Underlying DPW % Underwriting income % Combined ratio 97.4% 97.7% (0.3) pts Combined Ratio Breakdown 33.7% 33.3% 63.7% 64.4% Q Q Expense Ratio Claims Ratio Underlying DPW growth of 10% reflecting organic unit growth of 4%, higher average premiums, and a 3 point contribution from the CDI acquisition The combined ratio of 97.4% was 0.3 points better than Q Intact Financial Corporation 11

12 Commercial lines Commercial Auto (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q Q Change Underlying DPW % Underwriting income 5 16 (69)% Combined ratio 97.0% 89.4% 7.6 pts Combined Ratio Breakdown 69.7% 62.2% Commercial auto delivered strong underlying DPW growth, helped by firming in certain market segments Combined ratio deteriorated 7.6 points due to an increase in large losses and unfavourable prior year claims development. We are implementing corrective measures, targeting a sustainable combined ratio in the low 90 s. 27.3% 27.2% Q Q Expense Ratio Claims Ratio (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Q Q Change Combined Ratio Breakdown Commercial P&C Underlying DPW % Underwriting income % Combined ratio 84.6% 84.7% (0.1) pts 38.3% 38.0% 46.3% 46.7% Q Q Expense Ratio Claims Ratio Commercial P&C underlying DPW grew in the quarter on higher rates, supporting firmer market conditions Combined ratio continues to benefit from our action plan Intact Financial Corporation 12

13 High quality investment portfolio $13.3 billion strategically managed Net investment gains (losses) (in $ millions, except as otherwise noted) Investment mix (net of hedging positions and financial liabilities related to investments) Q3-15 Q3-14 Change Loans, 4% Gains (losses) on fixedincome strategies and related derivatives Gains (losses) on equity strategies and related derivatives Net gains on broker transactions (23) (19) (4) (42) 40 (82) 1 9 (8) Cash and shortterm notes, 5% Preferred shares, 8% Common equity strategies, 13% Fixed-income strategies, 70% Net investment gains (losses) (64) 30 (94) Net investment gains (losses) excluding FVTPL fixed-income securities (40) 48 (88) Approximately 99% of fixed-income securities are rated A or better 83% of preferred shares are rated at least P2L No leveraged investments Intact Financial Corporation 13

14 Strong financial position Our financial position was strong with $389 million of excess capital and an estimated MCT of 195% Book value per share increased by 4% for the last 12 months to $37.84, despite challenging capital markets Strong Operating ROE of 16.9%, up 2.6 points from last year Debt-to-capital ratio of 17.3%, below our target of 20% Intact Financial Corporation 14

15 Q earnings call Wednesday, February 10 th, 2016 Intact Financial Corporation

16 Contact Investor Relations General Contact Info Website: Click on Investor Relations tab Phone: (toll-free) Samantha Cheung, MBA, M.Sc.Eng., P.Eng. Vice President, Investor Relations Phone: Maida Sit, CFA Director, Investor Relations Phone: ext To access our 2014 online annual report featuring interactive photos, videos, dynamic charts, and additional media, please scan the QR code or visit reports.intactfc.com/2014. Intact Financial Corporation 16

17 Appendix Intact Financial Corporation

18 Ontario auto update The Ontario government has a mandate to reduce insurance rates while also reducing costs for insurers Cumulative Ontario Auto Rate Decreases * 0% -2% -4% -6% Bill 15 passed Savings from: PJI DRS Towing Bill 91 passed Savings from: Updated Cat definition AB Changes 6.8% Update Bill 91, stemming from the April budget announcement outlines additional actions to reduce costs which include: Updating the catastrophic impairment definition Reducing the standard duration of medical and rehabilitation benefits to be more in line with other provinces Companies have filed rates at the end of October to reflect the latest reforms -8% -10% Bill 65 passed Savings from: MIG definition reaffirmed Heath Care Provider licencing 9.6% Ontario auto accounts for approximately one quarter of our direct premiums written -12% Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Industry Q3-14 Q4-14 IFC Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 We continued our solid outperformance versus the industry We continue to believe we can protect our margins in Ontario * Source: IFC estimates based on FSCO quarterly rate filings Intact Financial Corporation 18

19 Acquisition of Canadian Direct Background Announced February 10, 2015 $143 million in DPW Broadens direct presence for IFC Facilitates objective to double direct capabilities Track record of strong underwriting results Progress The transaction closed on May 1, 2015 and integration efforts are well underway Targeting annual expense synergies of $10 million after-tax, and expect our run rate to reach this level by mid-2017 IRR estimated above 15% Acquisition of CDI adds meaningful presence in Western Canada 2014 IFC Direct Channel: $975M DPW* Direct Channel pro forma with CDI: $1.1B DPW* 9% 2% 8% 7% 8% 30% 51% 59% 26% Ontario Quebec Atlantic Alberta B.C. * Includes Anthony Insurance and InnovAssur Intact Financial Corporation 19

20 Forward-looking statements Certain of the statements included in this MD&A about the Company s current and future plans, expectations and intentions, results, levels of activity, performance, goals or achievements or any other future events or developments constitute forward-looking statements. The words may, will, would, should, could, expects, plans, intends, trends, indications, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, likely, potential or the negative or other variations of these words or other similar or comparable words or phrases, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on estimates and assumptions made by management based on management s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors that management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. Many factors could cause the Company s actual results, performance or achievements or future events or developments to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, the following factors: the Company s ability to implement its strategy or operate its business as management currently expects; its ability to accurately assess the risks associated with the insurance policies that the Company writes; unfavourable capital market developments or other factors which may affect the Company s investments and funding obligations under its pension plans; the cyclical nature of the P&C insurance industry; management s ability to accurately predict future claims frequency; government regulations designed to protect policyholders and creditors rather than investors; litigation and regulatory actions; periodic negative publicity regarding the insurance industry; intense competition; the Company s reliance on brokers and third parties to sell its products to clients; the Company s ability to successfully pursue its acquisition strategy; the Company s ability to execute its business strategy; the Company s ability to achieve synergies arising from successful integration plans relating to acquisitions including its acquisition of Canadian Direct Insurance Inc. ( CDI ), as well as management's estimates and expectations in relation to resulting accretion, internal rate of return and debt-to-capital ratio; the Company s participation in the Facility Association (a mandatory pooling arrangement among all industry participants) and similar mandated risk-sharing pools; terrorist attacks and ensuing events; the occurrence of catastrophic events; the Company s ability to maintain its financial strength and issuer credit ratings; access to debt financing and the Company's ability to compete for large commercial business; the Company s ability to alleviate risk through reinsurance; the Company s ability to successfully manage credit risk (including credit risk related to the financial health of reinsurers); the Company s reliance on information technology and telecommunications systems and potential disruption to those systems, including evolving cyber attack risk; the Company s dependence on key employees; changes in laws or regulations; general economic, financial and political conditions; the Company s dependence on the results of operations of its subsidiaries; the volatility of the stock market and other factors affecting the Company s share price; and future sales of a substantial number of its common shares. All of the forward-looking statements included in this MD&A are qualified by these cautionary statements and those made in the Risk management section of our MD&A for the year ended December 31, These factors are not intended to represent a complete list of the factors that could affect the Company. These factors should, however, be considered carefully. Although the forward-looking statements are based upon what management believes to be reasonable assumptions, the Company cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, investors should ensure the preceding information is carefully considered. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements made herein. The Company and management have no intention and undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. Intact Financial Corporation 20

21 Disclaimer This Presentation does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with, or act as any inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information contained in this Presentation concerning the Company does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all the information that a prospective purchaser or investor may desire to have in evaluating whether or not to make an investment in the Company. The information is qualified entirely by reference to the Company s publicly disclosed information. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its the directors, officers or employees as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in this Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for such information or opinions. In furnishing this Presentation, the Company does not undertake or agree to any obligation to provide the attendees with access to any additional information or to update this Presentation or to correct any inaccuracies in, or omissions from, this Presentation that may become apparent. The information and opinions contained in this Presentation are provided as at the date of this Presentation. The contents of this Presentation are not to be construed as legal, financial or tax advice. Each prospective purchaser should contact his, her or its own legal adviser, independent financial adviser or tax adviser for legal, financial or tax advice. The Company uses both International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) and certain non-ifrs measures to assess performance. Non-IFRS measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by IFRS and are unlikely to be comparable to any similar measures presented by other companies. Management of the Company analyzes performance based on underwriting ratios such as combined, general expenses and claims ratios as well as other performance measures such as return on equity ( ROE ) and operating return on equity. These measures and other insurance related terms are defined in the Company s glossary available on the Intact Financial Corporation web site at in the Investor Relations section. Additional information about the Company, including the Annual Information Form, may be found online on SEDAR at Intact Financial Corporation 21