Government of India Earth System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department
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1 Government of India Earth System Science Organization Ministry of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department Press Release Dated: 1 October, 2015 Subject: Current status of southwest monsoon 2015 and forecast Highlights of the week o The South West Monsoon has further withdrawn from remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh, most parts of East Uttar Pradesh, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat state and north Arabian sea (Annexure I). o The seasonal rainfall from 1 June to 30 September, 2015 for the country as a whole was 14% below the long period average (LPA) as against the long range forecast of ESSO, IMD of 12% deficiency with a model error of ± 4% Weekly Rainfall Scenario (24-30 September, 2015) During the week, rainfall was 62% below LPA over the country as a whole. All the broad homogeneous regions of India also received below normal rainfall activity during the week. Details of rainfall over homogeneous regions are given below: Regions Actual Rainfall (mm) Normal Rainfall (mm) % Departure from LPA Country as a whole % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % East & Northeast India % The Meteorological sub-division-wise rainfall for the week is given in Annexure II. Mausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, New Delhi Phones: , ; Fax No , ,
2 Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1 June to 30 September, 2015) For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during monsoon season has so far upto 30 September been 14% below the LPA. Rainfall activity was less than normal in all the four broad homogeneous regions. Details of the rainfall distribution are given below: Regions Actual Rainfall (mm) Normal Rainfall (mm) % Departure from LPA Country as a whole % Northwest India % Central India % South Peninsula % East & Northeast India % Cumulative seasonal rainfall is given in Annexure III. Rainfall Scenario for 1-30 September, 2015 Cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole from 1-30 September is 24% below the LPA Districtwise rainfall (01 June to 30 September, 2015) During the period, rainfall was excess/normal in 51% (312) districts and deficient/scanty in 49% (302) districts. The district rainfall map is given in Annexure IV. Current synoptic conditions as on 01 October, 2015 o An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal. o An east-west shear zone runs roughly along Latitude 11.0 N and extends between 3.1 & 5.8 km above mean sea level. o An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over eastcentral & adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep area. Forecast for next one week (1-7 October, 2015) The Forecast and warnings for the 36 Meteorological Sub-Divisions of the country for next 7 days is given in next page.
3 S.No. METEOROLOGICAL SUB- DIVISIONS Forecasts and Warnings 1-Oct 2-Oct 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 7-Oct 1 ANDAMAN & N ISLANDS FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 2 ARUNACHAL PRADESH DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY 3 ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 4 NAGA.MANI.MIZO.TRIPURA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT 5 SHWB &SIKKIM DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 6 GANGETIC WEST BENGAL DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY 7 ODISHA ISOL ISOL SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL 8 JHARKHAND DRY ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY 9 BIHAR DRY DRY ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY 10 EAST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 11 WEST UTTAR PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 12 UTTARAKHAND DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 13 HARYANA CHD. & DELHI DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 14 PUNJAB DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 15 HIMACHAL PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 16 JAMMU & KASHMIR DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY ISOL 17 WEST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 18 EAST RAJASTHAN DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 19 WEST MADHYA PRADESH DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 20 EAST MADHYA PRADESH DRY ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY 21 GUJARAT REGION DD & NH DRY ISOL ISOL DRY DRY DRY DRY 22 SAURASHTRA KUTCH & DIU DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY DRY 23 KONKAN & GOA SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL ISOL 24 MADHYA MAHARASHTRA ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 25 MARATHAWADA ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL 26 VIDARBHA ISOL SCT SCT ISOL ISOL DRY DRY 27 CHHATTISGARH ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL ISOL DRY 28 COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH FWS FWS SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL 29 TELANGANA ISOL SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ISOL 30 RAYALASEEMA SCT FWS* SCT FWS FWS SCT SCT 31 TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY FWS* SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT 32 COASTAL KARNATAKA FWS* FWS* SCT SCT FWS* FWS FWS 33 NORTH INT. KARNATAKA FWS FWS* SCT FWS FWS FWS FWS 34 SOUTH INT. KARNATAKA FWS* FWS* SCT SCT FWS* FWS* FWS* 35 KERALA FWS* FWS SCT SCT FWS SCT SCT 36 LAKSHADWEEP FWS FWS SCT SCT FWS FWS SCT LEGENDS (% of stations reporting rainfall) WS More than 75% FWS 51% to 75% SCT 26% to 50% ISOL Less than 25% DRY DRY (Nil Rainfall) $ Thunder squall D Dust/thunderstorm H Heat wave HH Severe heat wave *heavy rainfall **heavy to very heavy rainfall ***extremely heavy rainfall
4 Extended Range Forecast till 18 October, 2015 o Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over south Peninsular India till 13 October. o A western disturbance may cause nearly normal rainfall over western Himalayan region during the period October. Legend: Rainfall Intensity Extremely Heavy (>244.4mm) Very Heavy ( mm) Heavy ( mm) Rainfall Distribution(%of stations reported rainfall) Widespread/ At most places (76-100) Fairly widespread/ At many places (51-75) Scattered/ At a few places (26-50) This is the last press release of Southwest Monsoon 2015 Isolated/ At one or two places (1-25)
5 Annexure I
6 Annexure II
7 Annexure III
8 Annexure IV DISTRICTWISE RAINFALL MAP FOR THE PERIOD TO
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