Juan José Echavarría Co-Director, Central Bank of Colombia October, 2008
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1 Colombian Economic Prospects Juan José Echavarría Co-Director, Central Bank of Colombia October, 2008
2 Topics Growth Inflation Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financial Sector Central Bank Policy
3 Topics Growth Inflation Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financial Sector Central Bank Policy
4 Banrep31 Colombian long run growth (GDP, annual growth %) average : 4.3% average: 3 years 4 Source: DANE, Central Bank
5 Folie 4 Banrep31 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
6 Banrep1 GDP Quarterly Growth (%) 5 Source: DANE, Central Bank
7 Folie 5 Banrep1 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
8 Banrep4 Investment (annual growth %) Source: DANE, Central Bank
9 Folie 6 Banrep4 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
10 Banrep5 Investment/GDP (%) Average = 15.6% Source: DANE, Central Bank
11 Folie 7 Banrep5 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
12 Homicide rates: Bogota, Colombia Homicide rate in the city of Bogota (Colombia) Hot spot policing Better local institutions A program aimed at 60 restoring civil culture 40 The strong success surpassed dthe modest 20 goals set by the 0 authorities Year
13 Homicide rates: Medellin, Colombia Homicide rate in the city of Medellin (Colombia) Increased police presence in 400 problematic neighborhoods Year Better policing practices An ambitious plan of public works The intervention was localized geographically and thematically
14 Banrep6 Consumption (annual growth %) Source: DANE, Central Bank
15 Folie 10 Banrep6 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
16 Banrep10 GDP Growth (%) in Latin America: 2008 and 2009 j6 Source: Latin American Focus Consensus Forecast, October
17 Folie 11 j6 Banrep10 arreglar jechavso; Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
18 Growth Inflation Topics Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financiali Sector Central Bank Policy
19 Annual Inflation Rate (%) Fuente: DANE, cálculos del Banco de la República. Source: DANE, Central Bank
20 Banrep12 Core Inflation (%) 14 Source: DANE, Central Bank
21 Folie 14 Banrep12 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
22 Inflation expectations derived from colombian treasuries j16 Source: Central Bank
23 Folie 15 j16 arreglar jechavso;
24 Banrep14 Inflation (%) 16 Source: Latin American Focus Consensus Forecast, October 2008
25 Folie 16 Banrep14 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
26 Topics Growth Inflation Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financial Sector Central Bank Policy
27 CP1 Exports 18 Source: DANE, Central Bank
28 Folie 18 CP1 Responsable: dayra Garrido Última Fecha de Actualización: 08/08/2008 SERGIO OLARTE;
29 CP2 Exports to USA and Ecuador Fuente: DANE 19 Source: DANE, Central Bank
30 Folie 19 CP2 Responsable: dayra GArrido Última Fecha de Actualización: 08/08/2008 SERGIO OLARTE;
31 CP3 Exports to Venezuela 20 Source: DANE, Central Bank
32 Folie 20 CP3 Responsable: dayra garrido Última Fecha de Actualización: 08/08/2008 SERGIO OLARTE;
33 Banrep16 21 Source: Central Bank
34 Folie 21 Banrep16 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
35 j14 Proyections, GDP growth (%), Venezuela j9 Latin American Consensus Forecast, octubre 08 22
36 Folie 22 j9 j14 arreglar jechavso; actualizar jechavso;
37 Banrep21 Capital Account (US$ millions) Source: Central Bank
38 Folie 23 Banrep21 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
39 Banrep22 FDI to Colombia (US $ millions) 24 Source: Central Bank
40 Folie 24 Banrep22 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
41 FDI in Colombia, Other 64% Oil 11% Minning 25% Other 47% Minning 18% Oil 35% Other: % Transport & Comun. 19% Financial 24% Commerce 20% Manufactu ring 32% Others 5%
42 Banrep24 Source: Central Bank
43 Folie 26 Banrep24 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
44 Banrep36 Remmitances (US$ millions, 1 st sem) México 2008: US$ 11,601 Source: DANE, Central Bank
45 Folie 27 Banrep36 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
46 Banrep25 Current account deficit j10 28 Source: Latin American Focus Consensus Forecast, October 2008
47 Folie 28 j10 Banrep25 arreglar jechavso; Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
48 Topics Growth Inflation Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financial Sector Central Bank Policy
49 Banks profits 4 Profits/Assets (%) Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 10 Source: Central Bank
50 Provisions/Risky Credit Commercial Total Consumption Housing Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 08 Source: Central Bank
51 Banks Assets 80 loans/assets (%) bonds/assets (%) Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 10 Source: Central Bank
52 Source: Central Bank
53 The Stock Exchange 120 Latin America Colombia 100 United States Colombia Asia Europe Until October 27,2008 Eastern Europe 01 Jan Apr Jul Oct 08 date Japan 01 Jan Apr Jul Oct 08 Source: Bloomberg
54 Topics Growth Inflation Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Remittances The Financial Sector Central Bank Policy
55 Interest rates Exchange rates Central Bank Policy International reserves Other measures
56 Interest rates Exchange rates Central Bank Policy International reserves Other measures
57 Countries following inflation targeting 1 Australia 15 Slovak Republic 2 Canada 16 South Africa 3 Czech Republic 17 Spain 4 Finland 18 Sweden 5 Hungary 19 Switzerland 6 Iceland 20 Thailand 7 Indonesia 21 Turkey 8 Israel 22 United Kingdom 9 Korea 10 New Zealand 23 Brazil 11 Norway 24 Chile 12 Philippines 25 Colombia 13 Poland 26 Mexico 14 Romania 27 Peru 38
58 j11 Source: Central Bank
59 Folie 39 j11 falta jechavso;
60 Banrep26 40 Source: Latin American Focus Consensus Forecast, October 2008
61 Folie 40 Banrep26 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
62 j Source: Central Bank,; non food prices used as deflator
63 Folie 41 j12 no deja ver la data jechavso;
64 Interest rates Exchange rates Central Bank Policy International reserves Other measures
65 Banrep18 Nominal Devaluation in Latin America, last 3 years 3 years 2 years Perú -9,94% Uruguay -6,44% Brasil -5,51% Perú -5,93% Uruguay -4,84% Colombia -3,85% Colombia -1,51% Brasil -0,86% Argentina 8,42% Argentina 4,17% Chile 14,40% 40% Chile 16,08% México 17,84% México 18,03% 1 year 1 month Perú 1,02% Perú 2,57% Uruguay 1,36% Argentina 3,22% Argentina 1,82% Uruguay 5,31% Colombia 12,63% Colombia 9,47% Brasil 16,50% Brasil 11,71% México 18,30% Chile 11,92% Chile 22,08% México 19,08% Source: Central Bank 43
66 Folie 43 Banrep18 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
67 Banrep19 44 Source: Central Bank
68 Folie 44 Banrep19 Responsable: Última Fecha de Actualización: Banco de la República;
69 j15 Real exchange rate (non traditional exports) 45 Source: Central Bank
70 Folie 45 j15 arreglar jechavso;
71 Interest rates Central Bank Policy Exchange rates International reserves and foreign debt Other measures
72 International Reserves Rint/Foreign Debt Amortizaton (%) Rint/Current Account Deficit Rint/GDP (%) Ri nt/imports -monnths Rint/Foreign Debt Service (%) Source: Central Bank ( Rint/M (%) 40 45
73 Foreign Debt (% of GDP) 50 Total Public Private Source: Central Bank
74 Interest rates Central Bank Policy Exchange rates International reserves Other measures
75 Other measures Capital controls (to short term capital inflows) adopted in may 2007 recently removed Reserve requirements Increased in may 2007 marginal reserve requirements converted recently to average reserve requirements reduced recently from 10% to 9% Exchange rate interventions recently removed
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