THE FUTURE OF THE HVAC&R INDUSTRY

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1 THE FUTURE OF THE HVAC&R INDUSTRY Richard B. Hayter 1, Sheila J. Hayter 2 1 Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas, USA 2 National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, USA Gender: 1 Male, 2 Female Paper reference code: 134s ABSTRACT The HVAC&R industry has profoundly affected humanity. Occupants in our buildings are more comfortable, healthier and productive. Food can be transported throughout the world, new products can be manufactured and new medical procedures are possible. The improvements are the result of advances in technology, market changes, societal concerns for our environment and political decisions. Regardless of the reasons for change, we must be prepared to direct those changes for the betterment of our clients and our industry. This presentation discusses new advances in technology, market trends and global standards affecting the use of our systems and equipment and how you can have a positive effect on the future of our industry. KEYWORDS Future, HVAC&R, Market Trends INTRODUCTION The technology of the heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration industry is growing at an increasing rate. In addition to market forces, many of these changes are influenced by events completely outside our industry. The author and futurist, Isaac Asimov stated that, No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is but the world as it will be."[1] You must have a vision for our industry to effectively contribute as a scientist, designer, manufacturer, supplier, builder or facilities manager. Our industry has had a profound effect on population shifts, particularly in hot climates. Five years ago, the US National Building Museum in Washington, DC, sponsored an exhibit on air-conditioning. Entitled "Stay Cool! Air Conditioning America," the exhibit stated, "The engine of air conditioning helped fuel the explosive postwar growth of Sunbelt cities like Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Miami." Our industry provided buildings with a climate that was more comfortable, healthier and more productive than once thought possible. Jim Schultz, retired president of the Trane Company Commercial Division, in his presentation for the 2001 CLIMA meeting in Naples, Italy, identified challenges our industry will face. He suggested there might be a world population increasing to 10 billion by 2050, that there would be rising expectations in developing countries, escalating demand on (finite) resources, political and economic instability and preservation of the environment. So what might the future bring to our industry? Will electrical power be generated on-site by using micro turbines or fuel cells or by photovoltaic modules as the building envelope? Will we see development of refrigerant free, energy efficient, economical cooling equipment? 1

2 LEARNING FROM THE PAST Until recently, central, indoor climate control was reserved for a limited privileged few. Today, in excess of 55% of the entire U.S. housing stock has central air-conditioning [2] and 75% of all newly constructed homes have central air-conditioning [3]. With the advent of economical, mechanical climate control we many times overlook techniques used in the past to minimize the effects of the outdoor environment. Building orientation, geometry, shading, natural ventilation and many others all contributed to providing a habitable environment; although not necessarily one that today we would say was comfortable. The Raffles Hotel in Singapore is an excellent example of a design that minimized the effect of a hot, humid outdoor environment through use of high ceilings, shaded verandas, and natural ventilation (Figure 1). Today, we can overpower the impact of the building exterior with mechanical cooling, but we sometimes do so without minimizing the loads. Figure 1. Raffles Hotel, Singapore THE HVAC MARKET The Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI) announced in February 2005 that shipments of central air conditioners and air source heat pumps exceeded seven million units in This was 8 % greater than the previous year and was the third consecutive record year [4]. The health of the industry has continued to improve. For example as shown in figure 2, U.S. factory shipments of central air-conditioners and heat pumps in March 2005 totaled 780,407 units, up 7% from March 2004 [5]. Figure 2 Courtesy of ARI 2

3 In addition to the demand for unitary equipment, there still remain chlorofluorocarbon (CFC)- based chillers that will be replaced. This means there is a strong market for new or replacement units. According to ARI, 33,297 CFC chillers still remain in the US [5]. ARI further noted that the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that the new chillers are at least 40% more efficient than those installed 40 years ago [5]. Less electrical energy consumption will mean that less CO 2 will be produced as less power is generated. Similarly, smaller units used in residential and light commercial applications have also shown a marked increase in efficiency. Figure 3 shows the improvement in efficiency of unitary airconditioners [6]. Figure 3 Shipment-Weighted Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratios of Unitary Air-Conditioners (Less than 65,000BTUH). Courtesy of ARI INFLUENCES ON HVAC&R APPLICATIONS In 2002 the American Society of Civil Engineers celebrated its 150 th anniversary. A statement from the Civil Infrastructure Systems Task Force of the U.S. National Science Foundation was part of their anniversary display. "The solutions to infrastructure problems are probably 5% technical and 95% social, political, environmental and economic." The same is true for issues facing the HVAC&R industry. We must recognize the effect both technical and non-technical influences have on our industry. Descriptions of some of those influences follow. 1. Energy: As stated by ASHRAE past president Bill Coad, "The greatest challenge to the human race in the 21 st century will be to maintain and advance our quality of life as we face a dwindling reserve of energy resources." [7] The U.S. residential and commercial sectors account for 40% of the total energy consumed in the country [2]. Comfort cooling, ventilation and refrigeration consume 41% of all electricity consumed in commercial buildings [2]. The building systems we design, install and operate have a profound effect on energy consumption. We must focus on energy efficiency in our research, product development, design, construction and building operation. ASHRAE Past President Don Holte's focus on green buildings continues to have significant influence on the design of sustainable buildings and ASHRAE's participation in the US Green Buildings Council (USGBC) ( Similarly the European Union has created the "Green Diplomacy Network" ( In addition to technology, the design process is critical in assuring that a sustainable building is created and maintained. Understanding which strategies are best suited for the building site and function, setting aggressive energy targets early, and relying on computer simulations to evaluate design options are essential to the process [8]. 3

4 2. Environment: Past ASHRAE President Don Colliver admonished us to recognize that "The protection of the environment is more than an economic issue it is an ethical issue. [9] Two environmental factors continue to significantly affect our industry; ozone depletion and climate change. Past ASHRAE president Jim Wolf in his presentations at ASHRAE meetings points out that if every centrifugal chiller had an efficacy of 0.48 kw/ton vs. 0.56, annual power plant emissions would be reduced by nearly 17 billion pounds of CO 2 which would be equivalent to removing 2 million cars from the road or planting nearly 500 million trees each year. 3. Human Factors: If we compare the annual energy costs per unit building area to the personnel cost for the same unit area we see that the cost of employees is 100 times that of energy. As a result, we dare not jeopardize environmental quality and risk reducing the productivity of the occupants. We also have an obligation to understand the variables affecting the human response to their environment to assure that the systems we provide will maintain comfort and minimize stress. 4. Political: Decisions affecting design and selection of equipment must be based on solid technical principles to be of long-term benefit to a global society. In addition, standards for system design and equipment performance should be uniform throughout the globe. Requirements for system performance must be based on technology and not on market protection. 5. Societal: Buildings must be designed and operated for the long-term sustainability of our natural resources. They must be safe, free of harmful contaminants, structurally sound and protected against acts of violence. 6. Communication: The Internet provides a method to share research results, system and product design, and more recently, education. No longer are we bound by geography hindrances to information sharing. However, the Internet also has the potential for publishing erroneous information. The Web does not protect us as did peer-reviewed documents. Therefore we have a responsibility to use our professional judgment as to the validity of the information available on the Web. LOOKING AHEAD As we begin to understand the influences on our industry, we can speculate, with some limited confidence, what to expect in new HVAC&R opportunities. 1. Equipment & Systems: At the previously mentioned 2001 CLIMA meeting in Naples, the plenary speaker, Jim Schultz, gave some predictions regarding equipment that are also proving true. He anticipated improvements in compressor modulation, cost effective expansion energy recovery systems, reliable, oil-less drives and improvements in refrigerant heat exchanger performance. It is the authors' opinion that we will see an increased use of radiant cooling, natural and displacement ventilation and greater application of refrigerant-free cooling. Although thermoelectric and vortex cooling have been available for some time, their applications are limited as are their coefficients of performance. However, magnetic cooling, thermo-acoustic cooling and evaporative cooling ultra coolers will see greater use as their technologies are refined. We will also develop new methods to protect our systems against unnatural acts. 2. Refrigerants: Our industry is already experiencing an increased use of natural refrigerants such as CO 2 and ammonia for low temperature refrigeration; and in some 4

5 situations for comfort. Many regions of the world are seeing an increased use of flammable refrigerants such as propane although this is not the case in the US. Jim Schultz anticipates that systems will have zero refrigerant discharge, smaller charges will be required and thermodynamic properties will improve. 3. Controllers: We will see even more migration of building automation to the equipment level from the previously used single, central control system. Wireless controllers will give us greater flexibility and increased control. Control applications via the Internet will continue to increase. Our systems will become less susceptible to power quality anomalies and those anomalies, themselves, will be reduced. 4. Human Factors: We have already begun to see the use of multivariate controllers beyond the traditional dry-bulb and wet-bulb. We will continue to expand our understanding of the effects of air quality on building occupants and we will learn new ways to reduce the type and quantity of contaminants. We will also see increasing need and understanding of acoustic control in our systems and spaces. We must also understand that our response to our environment is psychological as well as physical as explained by Rohles [10]. 5. Specialty Environments: Personal protection devices control the area immediately around the occupant. This is many times in the form of protective garments such as those of firefighters or workers in other hazardous environments. Ralph Goldman explained that we must thoroughly understand the human physiological response to the environment in the protective suit [11]. We will see an increased use of individually controlled spaces at workstations or other office applications. Our industry will expand its contributions to controlling the environment for food preservation as well as animal confinement housing. The need for climate control in manufacturing and other refrigeration applications will continue to grow and will depend even more on our technological skills. 6. Design Teaming: Design teaming is already common. ASHRAE past president Richard Rooley stated, "It is probable that within a very few years companies of designers, manufacturers and contractors who operate as they did in the latter part of the 20 th century will be looked upon as a living museum." [12] An interdisciplinary design team is required to successfully incorporate aggressive sustainable building design strategies into a project and ensure that the building is constructed and operated as designed, (Figure 4). Figure 4 Interdisciplinary design team potential members. 5

6 It is the opinion of the authors that during your lifetime, you may well work on a design team with members you will never meet on a project you will never see in a country you will never visit. With the trend toward technical specialization and with the technology that allows us to communicate instantly to anywhere on the globe, your knowledge and ability to apply it has become even more valuable. CONCLUSION Although our industry must have a vision for the global community that we serve, we must also have a personal vision for how each of us will contribute and how we will accomplish that vision. The futurist Joel Barker said it well, "Vision without action is merely a dream and action without vision just passes the time, but vision with action can change the world."[13] Our industry has a vision and it is changing the world to be a better place "Annual Energy Review," Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, "Koldfax," ARI February Koldfax, ARI May "1999 Statistical Profile of the Air-Conditioning, Refrigeration and Heating Industry," ARI, Coad, William J., "Accepting the Challenge" ASHRAE Journal, August Hayter, Sheila, Paul Torcellini, Richard Hayter, Ron Judkoff, "The Energy Design Process for Designing and Constructing High-Performance Buildings," CLIMA 2000, Naples, Italy, September Colliver, Donald, "Building a Better World," ASHRAE Journal, August Rohles, F. H., "Comfort in the Man Environment System," W.M. Kroner editor, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Advanced Comfort Systems for the Work Environment, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 1988, pp Goldman, Ralph F., "Personal Protective Systems for First Responders," ASHRAE Journal, February Rooley, Richard H., "The Community of ASHRAE," ASHRAE Journal, August