Analysis of demand for rail transport in Krakow agglomeration Survey and study on travel choice SUMMARY

Transcription

1 Analysis of demand for rail transport in Krakow agglomeration Survey and study on travel choice SUMMARY Contracting Authority: Municipality of Krakow, Office of the City Infrastructure Part 1 - Determination of the sample and design of the questionnaire Part 2 Implementation of field research Part 3 Main results of research

2 Part 1 - Determination of the sample and design of the questionnaire 1. Characteristics of rails corridors According to the contract, the research area was defined as follows: village of compact settlement, situated at a distance of 10 km from the existing railway stations; For the purposes of analysis the following rail corridors were taken into account: Kraków - Trzebinia, Kraków Miechów, Kraków Główny Nowa Huta PodłęŜe, Kraków Bochnia, Kraków Wieliczka, Kraków Skawina - Kalwaria Zebrzydowska Characteristics of the supply of capacity in the tested lines (omitted from the eligible service): Kraków Trzebinia (PLK, state line No 133): In the hours of 5-22 on each side runs over 30 trains, the cycle from 15 to 30 minutes. The line is characterized by relatively high frequencies, despite the lack of regularity of traveling (no fixed interval). Price for a normal ticket from Krakow to Trzebinia - 10 PLN, travel time minutes. Kraków Miechów (PLK, state line No 8): 13 connections in one direction at hours 5-23 (PKP PR), cycle - over one hour;journey time minutes; Price - 10 zł; circulation of relatively low frequency. Kraków Główny PodłęŜe (PLK, state line No 91): Implemented is 14 connections at hours 5-23 (PKP PR) one hour cycle;journey time minutes, ticket price - 5 zł; Kraków Bochnia (PLK, state line No 91): Are carried out (implemented) 22 connections at hours 5-23 (PKP PR + IR), travel time varies from 33 (IR) to 46 minutes (PR). Ticket price: 9 PLN; Kraków - Kraków BieŜanów Wieliczka (PLK, state line No 109): There are 17 connections in the hours 5-23 (PKP PR); Cycle one hour;journey time - 22 minutes, ticket price - 4 zł; Kraków- Skawina Kalwaria Zebrzydowska (PLK, state line No 94): This segment is not a homogeneous one. The line on the section Krakow - Skawina has the characteristics of the suburban lines (11 routes, a cycle of 1,5 hours), very different than for the section Skawina - Kalwaria Zebrzydowska - 1 connection per Page 2

3 day (connection negligible) In addition, we propose to implement the test on line: Kraków Mydlniki Balice (PLK, state line No 118). In summary: We deal with three types of lines: an intense traffic (more than 1 connection per hour (cost to Trzebinia and Bochnia), a medium traffic (one course in one hour) virtually no maintenance suburban (Episode Skawina - Kalwaria Zebrzydowska). For this reason, two types of questionnaires were developed: typical preference poll for the first two cases, survey the potential market for the third 2. Analytical division, planned sample sizes The planned distribution of the sample and the scope of analyses determines the need for identify the structure of the sample so to make possible to achieve overall results for: 1. Each of the directions; 2. The division into closer and "further" surroundings of Krakow - without distinguishing between directions 3. The results for the categories of frequency of travel to Krakow 4. The overall result determining the potential to change the number of rail passengers. To achieve the planned objectives of research, there is suggested that the quota sampling, the assumed number of interviews in each of the corridors. This approach guarantees the possibility of calculating the detailed results described in the above sections, and additionally - after tipping the results - the calculation of the overall result. Hence, the implementation of the following numbers of interviews were adopted: 1 Kraków - Trzebinia, Kraków Miechów, Kraków Główny Nowa Huta PodłęŜe, Kraków Bochnia, Kraków Wieliczka 150 Page 3

4 6a Kraków Skawina 200 6b Skawina - Kalwaria Zebrzydowska Kraków - Balice 100 Total: 1600 Sampling scheme is shown below. Page 4

5 300 surveys 300 surveys 100 surveys 100 surveys 200 surveys 150 surveys 150 surveys 300 surveys Fig. 1. Sampling Scheme Page 5

6 Taking into account the criterion of compact settlement in the various rail corridors - the following locations have been selected: 1 Kraków Trzebinia (line133) Chrzanów Trzebinia Dulowa Alwernia Krzeszowice Zabierzów Rudawa 2 Kraków Miechów (line 8) Miechów Słomniki Kocmyrzów Łuczyce Zastów Niedźwiedź Michałowice Batowice Kraków Os. Górka Narodowa Wschód opcjonalnie 3 Kraków Główny Nowa Huta PodłęŜe (line95) Batowice Górka Narodowa 4 Kraków Bochnia (line 91) Bochnia miasto Łapczyca Kłaj Niepołomice - miasto Złocień Nowy Wiśnicz 5 Kraków Wieliczka (line108) Wieliczka - miasto Biskupice Trąbki 6a Kraków Skawina (line 94) Skawina - miasto Skawina - obszar wiejski Mogilany Świątniki Górne 6b Skawina - Kalwaria Zebrzydowska (line 94) Kalwaria Zebrzydowska Lanckorona Sułkowice - miasto 7 Balice Kraków (line 118) Balice Kryspinów Liszki Kraków Mydlniki Page 6

7 3. Principles of test Analysis of demand for fast rail transport in Krakow agglomeration Due to the fact that the study will be implemented within a defined territory, with the respondents that meet detailed criteria for frequency of travel to Krakow, the most effective method of research is the selection of starting points and implementation of interviews by "random route. This means that random selection the first stage of about 230 starting points, with which interviewers using certain rules, will visit subsequent households until the implementation of each of the starting point 7 interviews with persons that meet the criteria for the study. Selection of respondents in each household will be carried out using a random algorithm. Implementation of the sample according to the method of random route. The interviewer, along with the questionnaires and instructions for testing will also receive a list of starting points. Using one of the starting point you can do no more than 7 interviews. How to use starting points: a) Residential buildings The first building which you enter by selecting deducting from the starting point of 5 houses (by adding 5 - if the starting point is closer to the beginning of the road and subtracting 5 houses - if it is at the end of the street). The choice of the building falls into any of it home and begin conducting interviews (if there is no one at the apartment or tenants do not agree to fill out survey, go to the next flat in the order). After successful completion of the interview in one of the flats, you should bypass the next six apartments and go to the seventh one. In one house you can do no more than 5 surveys. After conducting five interviews in the building, proceed to the next one, which is chosen as follows: you should bypass two buildings with the successive numbers and enter the third one. If you reach the end of the street you started to investigate, turn into the next street to the right and repeat the procedure. When you reach the end of this street, turn into another street to the left. b) Single family houses The implementation of the survey should be started from the 5 th house from the house specified as a starting point. If no one's home or the tenants do not agree to fill out the survey, go to the next house. After successful completion of the interview in a house, you should bypass the next house and go to another one. Page 7

8 In each case (a and b) If you are in a selected house is not the person meets the criteria for the beam - then realize scheme as if the interview in this house, we managed to carry out the interview. 4. Plan of analysis In order to determine the actual number of people accessing the cities to Krakow with a given frequency, the task of interviewers will describe each holding the number of people who, for a given frequency of travel to Krakow. For this purpose, will form "The Path address form" in which relevant data are collected. As a result, collecting such information, although the structure imposed on the number of interviews in terms of frequency of visiting Krakow will provide representative test results. The questionnaire correctly, is to determine: 1) a typical choice of means of communication; 2) distance from bus stops 3) the possibility of coming to the railway station; 4) offer an alternative to rail public transport; As a result, it will be possible to determine behavior of people, at the current offer of transport. In addition, in the questionnaire were included scenarios involving the: 1) improving railway operating frequency; 2) the limitation of entry to city buses 3) combinations thereof; 4) introduction of a common ticket 5) changes in driver behavior. This module allows to simulate the behavior of residents. The final test of the modules is the module determining satisfaction with rail and other forms of public transport, which may indicate the potential areas for improvement in the functioning of railways. Will be analyzed the relationship between driving time, cost, time to come to the bus / train station, and the choice of means of transport. Another factor - will be a description of the current offer of PKP PR in terms of frequency and price directions. First page of research questionnaire is shown below. Page 8

9 PREFERENCJE KOMUNIKACYJNE MIESZKAŃCÓW STREFY PODMIEJSKIEJ KRAKOWA Dzień dobry, nazywam się ( ) jestem ankieterem firmy ( ). Prowadzimy właśnie badanie na zlecenie Urzędu Miasta Krakowa, dotyczące komunikacji publicznej w Pana(i) rejonie. Proszę o poświęcenie mi kilkunastu minut i udzielenie odpowiedzi na pytania związane z tą tematyką. Zebrane informacje będą wykorzystane jedynie do zbiorczych zestawień statystycznych. Nigdzie nie będą przytaczane dane dotyczące pojedynczych osób. IMIĘ I NAZWISKO ANKIETERA NUMER ANKIETERA... Numer Numer Numer adresu ankiety wiązki z próby Gmina I I I I Data wywiadu (mc/dzień) Godz. rozpoczęcia wywiadu (hh/mm) I I I I I I I I I I I I... I I I/ I I I I I I/ I I I Zacznijmy rozmowę od Pana(i) podstawowej charakterystyki demograficznej. M1. Zaznacz płeć respondenta. 1. kobieta 2. męŝczyzna M2. W jakim jest Pan(i) wieku? lat lata lat lat lat lat i więcej lat M3. Czy posiada Pan(i) prawo jazdy? 1) tak 2) nie przejdź do M6 M4. Proszę powiedzieć, czy w Pana(i) gospodarstwie domowym jest samochód(y) z których moŝe Pan(i) korzystać? 1. tak 2. nie przejdź do M6 M5. Czy jest Pan(i) głównym uŝytkownikiem tego (jednego z tych) samochodu(ów)? 1) tak 2) nie 3) ( nie czytaj!) trudno powiedzieć M6. Jakie ma Pan(i) wykształcenie? 1) podstawowe 2) zawodowe 3) średnie 4) wyŝsze M7. Na koniec części opisowej, proszę powiedzieć, do której grupy zawodowej mogę Pana(ią) zaliczyć? Jeśli naleŝy Pan(i) do więcej niŝ jednej grupy, wówczas proszę wskazać tę, którą uznaje Pan(i) za najwaŝniejszą. 1) uczeń, student zadaj P1 2) osoba zatrudniona zadaj P1 Page 9

10 3) prowadząca własną działalność zadaj P1 4) bezrobotny zadaj P2 5) emeryt, rencista zadaj P2 Page 10

11 Part 2 Implementation of field research Questionnaire surveys were conducted from 14 to 31 October 2010 The selection of respondents guided by the following principles: 1) Persons aged ) Journey to Krakow (Krakow downtown for the inhabitants of the suburbs of Krakow) min. 1 time per month, by: a) less than once a week - max. 25% for the corridor; b) 1-3 times a week - min. 30% for the corridor; c) 4 or more times a week - min. 30% for the corridor; Data were stored in a spreadsheet EXCELL. When carrying out interviews telephone control was carried out to verify the accuracy of data contained in the survey questionnaires. Telephone control covered 10% of the interviews and did not show significant differences between the data stored in the questionnaires and the responses obtained by phone. Page 11

12 Part 3 Main results of research 1. Actual behaviors in travel to Krakow Almost half of respondents (45%) travelling to Krakow 4 times a week or more - that is perhaps - for the purposes of work or school. This ratio is obviously higher in the close vicinity of Cracow (55%), slightly lower (36%) in the downstream area. The frequency of travel to Krakow is growing among younger people (about 60% goes to Krakow 4 times a week or more) among persons aged 35 years, is shrinking - among people over 36 years of age. In travels to Krakow private car is most frequently used (33% as a driver and 8% as a passenger). The share of public transport is 24% for the agglomeration MPK bus and 28% for mini-buses (see fig.2). Rail transport - in typical journeys - is used by only 11% of respondents. Respondents - asked about other, used from time to time, modes of transport in travel to Krakow - rarely indicated rail transport. Train as the most common modes of transport was shown on the following directions: Krakow - Trzebinia (30%); Krakow - Bochnia (20%); Connections in these relations - are the connections of the highest frequency currently available. In the present conditions rail transport is taken into account by those who live no further than 1 km from the station and who know that the train arrives at the station at least 2 times in peak hour. The further away from Krakow, the more often respondents choose train as a means of transport. People who choose the offer other than rail transport as a reason shows the proximity of bus stops and high frequency calls. Page 12

13 % respondents agglomeration bus - MPK 24,4 bus - PKS 3,3 private bus 1,8 mini - bus 28,1 train 11,2 private car (driver) 32,8 private car (passenger) 7,9 company car (driver) 1,6 company car (passenger) 0,3 taxi 0,1 bicycle 0,2 other 0,1 lack of answer 1, Fig.2. Modes of transport in travel to Krakow commonly used Page 13

14 2. A potential response to changes in rail transport Taking into account the general indicators, declared willingness to change travel behavior after the introduction of changes to rail services is extremely high. The first of the test scenarios was to double the frequency trains.this type of change - according to the declarations of the respondents - could attract about 3 fold more users. These data correspond to the percentage of people using the railways in terms of different frequencies. It may be noted that the declared data on the reasons for the choice of public transport (the frequency and proximity to bus stops), data on rail services and data relating to declarations of future behavior - are relatively consistent. Similar results were obtained in response to a question about the potential reaction to shorten travel time by train to Krakow (20%).. Hence, this confirms the thesis that communicated any changes in rail transport can be expected to increase in the number of passengers. However, the mere communication of these changes is an important factor - remember, the respondents were inquired of the current knowledge about the within to the bus station, the frequency of calls... largely showed no guidance in this matter Other facilities, such as restrictions for mini-buses in travel to the city center, or the introduction of a joint ticket, have a relatively small increase in share of rail travel. Readiness to change means of transport declared every tenth person. Page 14

15 Fig.3. A potential response to changes in rail transport Page 15

16 3. Satisfaction with public transport Respondents were asked questions about satisfaction with the usedpublic transport. Was assessed satisfaction with rail and other most used means of public transport. Railways in each (except for the assessment of the number of vacant seats on the train at rush hour and beyond) of the analyzed criteria, received lower scores than the alternative means of public transport. The differences reach point in 6 point scale, which is a significant difference. The fact that only two parameters recorded relatively good results (the trains are relatively... empty), quite meaningfully demonstrates results of the study. 4. Calibration parameters of the modal split Regression analysis was performed to calibrate the parameters of distribution of traffic between the means of transportation. Satisfactory results have given calculations for the distribution of traffic between the collective and individual transport. Cruise deeper division among public transport did not yield results due to the low number of observations in rail traffic. The analysis was performed using STATGRAPH software. Linear regression model was tested. The dependent variable was defined as the share of individual transport in passenger journeys (Prt), measured as the probability of choosing this mode of transport. The independent variable was defined as the ratio of individual transport travel time (t- Prt) to public transport travel time (t-put). The best results were obtained for the type of equation: Results: Y = 1 / (a + b * X ^ 2) The equation for the distribution of tasks PrT Probability = 1 / ( * (t-prt_/_t-put) ^ 2 Parameters of model quality: The correlation coefficient R = R ^ 2 = % The standard error of estimation. = The average error = Page 16

17 Note: Other parameters of the model should be calibrated based on the analysis of the distribution of traffic on the network between the means of transport. 5. General conclusions and summary Railway offer is currently poorly known and used. Most respondents (60%) asked about travel time and frequency of trains - cannot provide answers to such questions. They have no such problem in the case of alternative modes of transport. Following the presentation of options changes in the operation of trains - especially the first of the presented concerning the shortening of travel time and increase the frequency - the declared readiness to use the rail transport is growing strongly - from the initial 11% to more than 30%. However, it is necessary to inform about the changes. It is also necessary the development of bus connections to rail stations. At the moment, which is rarely analyzed area resident, living at a distance greater than 1 km from the bus station - uses it. Satisfaction research of the use of rail transport show large differences between the reception of its offer and offer an alternative public transport. Railways recorded much lower assessment. Better results are obtained only for parameters showing its weakness, for example, indicators of free seats on trains during peak traffic and beyond. Page 17