Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014 ISSN March 2015

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7 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Editorial is special issue of Planet@Risk with a total of almost 30 papers presents some major findings of the 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference been held in Davos in August It is dedicated as a scientific and technological contribution to the 3rd United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan, where the United Nations Member States will adopt the successor arrangements to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), referred to as the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction(HFA 2). e HFA 2 shall be focusing equally on all phases of risk reduction and disaster management (prevention, preparedness, intervention and recovery). Such an integrative approach helps to identify risks, analyse, avoid, reduce, cope with and transfer risks as well as manage the residual risks. For such a risk reduction and disaster management approach, it is not only mandatory to reduce the direct risks due to natural and man-made hazards, but also to reduce factors such as poverty, corruption, or bad governance, which influence the risks indirectly. us the HFA 2 shall particularly address private sector investment in disaster risk management, the importance of civil society support for community-level work to enhance policies for resilience and the role of local and national governments, which will ultimately be responsible for the continued implementation of the second Hyogo Framework a er With disaster risk continuing to increase in many regions, action is needed to reverse the trend. e new global agreement on disaster risk reduction would have to be inter-dependent and complementary to the new Sustainable Development Goals and the new climate change agreement, both will be also agreed on in Creating a unified approach to these three agreements is the only plausible way to ensure disaster risk reduction is given high priority. e articles in this special issue of Planet@Risk provide recommendations and identify gaps in research, education, training, implementation, practice and policy improvements that should be addressed in the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. I would like to thank the reporting authors involved in this Planet@Risk Special Issue for their valuable work they share with us, and for the valuable work of the reviewers, ensuring a high-standard quality of the papers. I wish that you may gain a lot of new insights with this Planet@Risk Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR. It s now the time to take the crucial responsibility for our future generations. Walter J. Ammann Editor-in-Chief President Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Platz Switzerland info@planet-risk.org

8 2 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 IDRC Davos Outcomes: Report on Science and Te nology, Education and Training, and Implementation For DRR CONTRIBUTIONS is paper is compiled by contributions from the following experts (in alphabetical order by last name): Walter J. Ammann, Colin Armstrong, Hachim Badji, Pedro Basabe, John Bircham, Joern Birkmann, Deborah M. Brosnan, Julie Calkins, Ioana Creitaru, Carmelo Di Mauro, Mechthilde Fuhrer, Carl Gibson, Bernhard M. Hämmerli, Rebecca Lordan, Kai Liu, Alexandros Makarigakis, Alan March, Satoru Nishikawa, Francesco Pisano, Armin Preis, Sergey Pulinets, Ortwin Renn, Chen Reis, Andreas Rechkemmer, Badaoui Rouhban, Haresh Shah, Peijun Shi, Marc Stal, Akhilesh Surjan, Annibale Vecere, Dennis Wenger, James Herbert Williams, Yang Zhang 1. Introduction 1.1. Integrative Risk Management - e Role of Science, Technology and Practice Integrative Risk Management IRM: interconnection of social, political, financial, environmental, physical, and te nological risks e 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2014 was held with the special focus on Integrative Risk Management e Role of Science, Technology and Practice. Integrative risk management aims to reduce and mitigate risks throughout the whole cycle of risk management (cp. Figure 1). Focusing equally on all the phases of risk reduction and disaster management (prevention, preparedness, intervention and recovery), the IRM approach helps to identify risks, reduce, cope with and transfer risks as well as manage the residual risks. For such a risk reduction approach, it is not only mandatory to reduce the direct risks of natural and manmade disasters, risks having their roots in poverty, corruption and bad governance are equally important factors in need for sustainable management. Taking into account all different risk factors and reducing them to the most efficient and effective minimum results in a human secure society, resilient to resist the very large disasters of the future e Hyogo Framework for Action Post 2015 Building upon the Hyogo Framework for Action HFA1 e adoption and implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA1), Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, has marked a milestone in catalysing national and local efforts to reduce disaster risk and in strengthening these. Considerable progress has been made, but there is still a long way to go to reduce the many different risks and limit the extent of disasters. e Hyogo Framework for Action therefore, shall be followed by another long-term period of intensive efforts to achieve resilient, sustainable societies. Input towards the post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction on Science & Te nology, Education & Training and Implementation In support of providing input to the Proposed Elements for Consideration in the Post 2015 Framework for DRR (HFA2) by the UN SRSG for DRR, GRF Davos with its 5th IDRC Davos 2014 aimed to serve as a platform for intense discussions on the needs and gaps to be addressed in a post-2015 Framework for DRR from the perspective of science, technology, education and training, and implementation. Managing risks and disasters require a variety of instruments and initiatives at local, national, regional and global levels to enable more effective risk management. In cooperation with and under the auspices of the UNISDR Scientific and Technical Advisory Group (STAG), GRF Davos aims to feed this 5th IDRC Davos 2014 Outcomes Report into the 2nd UN Preparatory Conference for the WCDRR and therewith contribute to the Post-2015 Framework for DRR. 2. Ba ground Based on contributions towards the 5th International Disaster and Risk IDRC Davos 2014 Conference e input provided with this document is based on the analysis of various contributions requested from conference participants prior and during the 5th IDRC Davos 2014 conference, held August 2014 in Davos with 750 registered participants from 80 countries. It is also based on a Plenary Session (Monday, 25 August 2014) which was particularly dedicated to outcomes of international conferences on DRR which have taken place in the first half of 2014, on a Special Session (Monday 25 August 2014) on the specific needs of the UNISDR Platforms and Networks, and finally on a specific Post-Conference

9 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Expert Workshop with some 30 international experts on 29 August 2014, held also in Davos, Switzerland. e goal of the expert workshop was to dra this report on science and technology, on education and training, and on implementation. All the various background documents can be downloaded from the GRF Davos website:. 3. Gaps, Weaknesses and Options - Considerations for the Post 2015 Framework for DRR e following will list considerations for Science and Technology, Education and Training and for Implementation related to gaps, weaknesses and options. Before focussing on each sector, some general cross cu ing issues are addressed that need a special focus within research, education and implementation within DRR Cross Cu ing Issues Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Management Strategies, plans and processes shall actively include people with disabilities. Acting WITH not just FOR people with disabilities People with disabilities, women, children and older persons are the most vulnerable in disaster situations and bear the heaviest burden of disasters impact. Disaster managers ought to commit to devote be er tools for people with disabilities to anticipate risks and to respond to disasters. e design of strategies and plans, as well as decision-making processes for disaster risk reduction should actively involve people with special needs at all the stages of the disaster management cycle in an inclusive, participatory manner. To design measures WITH, and not to design measures FOR is crucial for disability inclusive DRR Displacement and Migration Inclusion of displaced people and migrants into DRR frameworks Human displacement and migration due to the negative impacts of slow- and sudden-onset disasters have huge impacts on local, regional, national and global vulnerabilities. Displaced people and migrants have to be included into disaster risk management frameworks. ere are still major gaps in policy and implementation whilst addressing various issues of people on the move. For example, the lack of inclusion of community relocations in the disaster risk reduction framework. Currently, there is no institutional framework to guide communities, local, regional and national government agencies in the steps which must be taken to relocate an entire community in order to reduce the risk of a disaster. ere are also no standards which identify the environmental signals which would warrant a community relocation in order to prevent disasters Harmonizing DRR and CCA Activities Harmonizing CCA and DRR remains key Since first initiatives launched e.g. at the IDRC Harbin 2007 as the so called Harbin Initiative, progress has been made in harmonizing climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk reduction and management strategies. However, a lot still has to be done, in particular on the implementation side. To link actors and measures in CCA and DRR remains key to achieve the SDGs DRR and Health: One Health A risk based One Health approa : Integrating human - animal - and environmental health A risk based One Health Concept promotes an integrative approach to global health, which focuses on healthcare for humans, animals, and the environment, and which is able to ensure food safety and security through effective and efficient agriculture and to provide access to water (e.g. WASH). e approach helps to understand the interconnectedness of the different risks; supports the early detection of potential threats (e.g. Ebola outbreaks); and provides a basis for measuring the outcomes and evaluating the impacts of global, regional and local risk reduction measures Science and Technology Some Introductory Remarks on the Current Status of Science and Technology Most of today s deficiencies in DRR are due to a la of governance and political will for implementation Some areas of well-established research and knowledge in DRR are at a point where the marginal returns of continued efforts appear to be diminishing. Science in DRR has emerged over decades. Considerable knowledge and skills now exist for example regarding single hazards process analysis, forecasting, and efficient measures to cope with. Although the application and dissemination of this knowledge still remains geographically uneven. Most of the today s deficiencies in DRR are not due to a lack of science but are due to a lack in governance and political will for rigorous implementation. Trans-disciplinary resear is needed for increased vulnerability reduction and resilience increase Redirection of efforts and resources to emerging areas of DRR is likely to yield greater marginal outputs. In particular, the analysis of complex and interrelated multihazards, critical infrastructures and services and their interdependencies, protection targets, the evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency of measures reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience, human agency aspects of risks, and interactions with ecological, social, and polit-

10 4 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 ical systems remain challenging, and require further research. e growing interconnectedness of critical infrastructures and services means that even minor and superficially harmless disruptions can trigger chain reactions capable of causing damage to the entire system. Applying existing skills and knowledge more effectively Resources in science to be shi ed from the WHAT to the HOW Recognizing the gaps in implementation, the need to refocus research activities to new areas acknowledges that a transition in thinking is required, redirecting the science of what to a science of how and applying existing skills and knowledge more effectively. is includes addressing emerging problems in multidisciplinary, applied and justified ways. e innovation in DRR management due to technological progress should nevertheless be pursued even for issues of DRR where the scientific knowledge is deemed satisfactory. e vulnerability of our critical infrastructures and services continuously shows how important it is for business and society to be able to adapt in the face of major adverse events Knowledge Connected to Implementation: e Science of How From resear to practice focussing on transformation science Failures in DRR are not primarily due to lacking scientific knowledge but are a consequence of not knowing how to translate it into applicable know how at the last mile. Emergent research using scientific approaches to the examination of knowledge application, deeper understandings of complex systems, and that integrate human and ecological systems, offer considerable possibilities for new approaches. Direct a ention to knowledge translation as a valid and indeed necessary component of DRR suggests that physical science needs to work directly with social science in all its many facets. e emphasis should be on transformation science consisting of integrated and interdisciplinary systems understanding of hazard/risk - society interactions, and strengthening risk governance at all levels. Clear objectives of what should be accomplished in what time frame (orientation knowledge) are equally important. Transformation science should also integrate the implementation know-how of what types of interventions and instruments are effective, efficient and sustainable within the context in which they are applied Improved Scientific and Technology Knowledge Translation and Management Multidisciplinary knowledge translation and management are key Future research should focus on the communication and translation of science and technology skills and knowledge into a format that is understood by the corporate sector (relating to monetary values), the political sector (relating to political goals and power), and the civil society sector (relating to their values and aspirations). is should be supported by the adoption and use of appropriate and more commonly used language for communicating to the media, the locally affected communities and the public at large. Providing information in ways that are valued by decision makers is of high importance. Indicator based evaluations with tools for event analysis including full integration of multi-disciplinary sciences Additionally, incentive systems should be be er understood and put in place for businesses to increase their resilience. is will help to ensure that values and incentives for all users are aligned with DRR outcomes. ese efforts should be supported by the establishment of key indicators which allow the evaluation progress in vulnerability reduction and resilience increase. Another focus should be set on metrics and analysis of failures and successes beyond immediate project completion, including an independent evaluation of the factors that have caused success or failure. Within these goals, the full integration of behavioural, economic, ecologic and political sciences into DRR is mandatory. Local level knowledge for advanced decision making Information about prevailing risks is key for the awareness raising of particular stakeholders and society at large. Access to information at local level is important, but also the collection of local knowledge to be incorporated into decision making processes A Problem-Based Approach, and Application via Scenario Testing DRR Science: demand and solution driven to identify, assess and reduce risk While fundamental science approaches will continue to be valid, the nature of DRR now requires flipped demand and solution driven approaches dealing directly with identifying, assessing, and treating risk reduction problems in a holistic way. ese research and technology approaches shall be inherently multidisciplinary, spanning natural, engineering, social and economic sciences, invoking a duty of care resulting in activities being effectively used and implemented. ey shall be directly linked to implementation, including definition of protection targets, feasibility analysis, development of business cases, linking with decision makers, and including scenario testing. Also, research and technology approaches shall link methodology with development and the appraisal of DRR scenarios that include ecological and human concerns. is will help to invoke ex-ante responsibilities for decision makers. Make use of existent platforms and networks of resear ers and practitioners

11 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Research and technology approaches should be deployed via improved organization and coordination of existing networks of researchers and practitioners that draw upon and build capacities of local and regional institutions and universities, tailored to regional needs. Business feasibility and cost benefit analysis should also be included to establish action interventions. is supports the understanding of the long-term values that resilience adds to businesses and to society Living Labs - a Novel Community Based Research and Education Approach Livings labs as demo cases for the science of how: multi- -stakeholder collaboration, knowledge generation, and application Enhancing capabilities and capacities for DRR require collaboration between the researchers and various stakeholders. Living laboratories are novel approaches with a user-centred, demand driven research concept. Research therefore has to work closely with all different kinds of stakeholders and get direct access to DRR related problems to be solved in a territorial context (e.g. city, agglomeration, region, etc.). Living labs can support integrating concurrent research and innovation processes within a public-private-people partnership. Besides a regular and effective dialogue and feedback between stakeholders and researchers, a living lab can make research more effective and substantially contribute to the science of how. Connecting science with the end users Stakeholder-driven research emphasizes research undertaken in partnership with stakeholders including marginalized population. e stakeholders participation within the scientific research framework provides a stakeholder/end user centred solution process. Learning from practice and from being embedded in the socio-political context are essential benefits for the researcher, who will also be faced with multi-level governance approaches. Within the framework of living labs, researchers have the responsibility to explain research outcomes to the end users and to implement them directly into practice Education and Training Education and training for successful capacity building Education, training and capacity building programmes constitute a critical part for risk reduction and disaster management. ere is an imperative need to improve the transfer of knowledge, technology and expertise and the sharing of successful practices and lessons learned that shall help to enhance capacity building All Inclusive Education and Training All inclusive disaster risk reduction education and training through increased international cooperation and standardisation Education on DRR can be partially realized by social networks, including family and relatives, neighbourhood, distance learning, local NGO networks, the media, etc.. An all-inclusive approach with robust capacity building methods and sound and disaster-proven know how has to be established. A special focus should be given on people living in hazardous areas, or in heavily populated urban informal se lements characterized by substandard housing. To successfully raise awareness and educate the society at large ethical questions, religious concerns, gender issues, the integration of disabled and elderly people, pets, and livestock have to be addressed. In order to be er share information and knowledge cooperation between local, national, and even international NGOs and international organizations has to be established and increased. Standard terminologies on DRR will also help the increase of common DRR understandings and behaviours School Based Youth Education for Disaster Risk Reduction Education programmes to support the resilience to disasters Education on hazards and risk reduction should be provided mandatorily from pre-school to university level. ese education activities should support children and students obtaining capabilities to increase their own resilience to disasters, and to support their schoolmates, relatives and neighbours. Both teaching staff and students should be involved in regular drilling exercises Inter- and Trans-Disciplinary University Based Education and Trainings Development of extended multi-disciplinary curricula Risk reduction and disaster management require many skills and professional backgrounds. High quality graduates already exist with a strong and specific background in one or the other sectors related to DRR. However, to cope with risks and disasters the demand for inter- and trans-disciplinary skills is increasing. Various academic disciplines from natural, social, medical, and engineering sciences have to develop extended curricula and offer close insights into other relevant disciplines by multi-disciplinary master courses for DRR, post-degree continuous education courses, or certified advanced study courses. For example, engineers may complement their academic background with specific insights and tools from social sciences, and the insurance sector.

12 6 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Open Access Education Free access to the state of the art for developing countries It is of utmost importance that academic education in developing countries has free access to latest knowledge, skills, tools, and data. e access to existing and new technologies, e.g. with e-learning courses, the free access to so ware, staff teachers without borders, or courses should be enabled. Production of comprehensive DRR text books Comprehensive text-books on integrative DRR are missing and have to be elaborated, providing up-to-date knowledge on DRR, integrating the various disciplinary perspectives, and the various national and local experiences. ese text-books might need country and risk specific adaptations Education at Practitioner s Level Education at practitioner s level with the necessary incentives Practitioners should periodically follow continuous education courses and get a chance to progress within their career. e establishment of a standardized, international certificate or a post graduate degree could represent the necessary incentives for further trainings. Continuous education is of particular importance for people who have responsibilities in early warning, or in disaster response and recovery phases Education and Training for the Most Vulnerable Revising existing methodologies and tools WITH (not just for) the most vulnerable Alternative education approaches, e.g. unified symbols for not fully educated people, for minority groups, or for foreign-language groups should be considered. Education and training programmes should provide a special focus on disabled people, devising alternative involvement methodologies for them. In addition, handbooks for implementation of disaster risk reduction should be especially compiled and widely circulated considering the most vulnerable Trainings and Drills for Professionals and Communities Organize regular DRR drills and trainings with comprehensive assessment of success. Ensure immediate implementation of lessons learned into operational and organisational structures At local and community level, continuous education on hazards and risks combined with adequate training can substantially reduce losses and damages in case of a severe event. For example, raising awareness for hazard mapping and land-use planning, teaching house owners on how to build a house disaster proof, or providing practical trainings and drill exercises may substantially strengthen DRR activities. If possible, drills should involve all the relevant blue light organizations (police, fire-fighters, civil protection, ambulances, and technical services) but in particular also the public and the media. Lessons learned from such drills should be implemented without delay into the operational and organisational reality. For future drills it is also essential to incorporate lessons learnt from recent disasters and drill exercises. Technicians and relief workers should also be regularly trained for a be er support in disaster relief. Rotating the lead in such drills might increase the flexibility and professionalism in decision making and rapid response, and improve cooperation. Emphasis should also be put on leadership built-up in local community to increase their organizational capacities. Specific training programs should be designed and provided to governmental officials at all levels and to politicians to make them qualified in the processes of developing their risk reduction strategies, their policies and disaster management plans, and their decisions Implementation and Practice Reduce Underlying Risk Factors Underlying risk factors to be reduced and DRR implementation strengthened e knowledge gained by science and technology; such as a be er understanding of hazards and risks, of methodologies, tools, technologies created, and lessons learned from forensic disaster investigations, etc.; to reduce risks and vulnerabilities and increase resilience have to be further implemented into practice. Focus of activities should be put on transition and implementation approaches. e main aim of implementation has to be the reduction of risks, and the avoidance of new risks to be created. e primary goals are to protect and save lives, and to protect livelihoods and assets. While there is increased awareness on the benefits of engaging in risk reduction at all levels, progress is still required in reducing underlying risk factors that will in turn contribute to a significant reduction of risks. Implementation of science and technology efforts will need to thoroughly focus on reducing underlying risk factors. e following key aspects should be emphasized Human Rights Are Central Establishment of legal frameworks, roles and responsibilities. Every individual s basic human rights have to be fulfilled in a manner that their lives, livelihoods and assets are protected from adverse events. However, disasters

13 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March are of increasing concern for humankind, due to their frequency, complexity, or scope and destructive capacity. A main objective of a nation therefore shall be to ensure and regulate that its development guarantees safe access of its population to all necessary services such as education, jobs, healthcare, food, housing, or culture. ese services are o en also provided by the private sector. Most important is that all these services provided to the people are - as far as possible - protected from adverse events. If citizens are actively engaged in the implementation of disaster risk reduction approaches, they are also ready and capable based on their self-responsibility to contribute to reduce existing risks and to avoid to build-up new risks. DRR is not only humanitarian aid- it is a powerful component of sustainable development and resilient livelihood. A legal framework and clearly defined roles and responsibilities of all different stakeholders at local to national level are useful to protect the many services from adverse effects. erefore, DRR and reducing vulnerabilities as a consequence are clearly beyond a purely humanitarian approach, and have to become unique focus of a sustainable development process and resilient livelihood approach. DRR is a cost-effective tool to reduce poverty and to make progress towards sustainable livelihoods Disaster Proof Consumer Goods Access to safe products and services Ensure that the types and quality of services provided to people contribute to their resilience against adverse events. It is beneficial to push service providers to offer products labelled safe from disasters. For this to be effective, there is a need for the private sector to be aware of the need for people to have access to safe products and services that will withstand disasters be er, but also for companies to ensure that their lines of production or services are built in such a manner that they are protected from disasters. For example, in many parts of the world, people are now requesting safe houses, safe schools and safe hospitals. is in turn leads to the fact that construction companies are changing the nature of their practices to ensure that they stay in business. It is believed that the more companies will advertise their products and services as having benefits in reducing risks or being safe from natural hazards, the more people will get used to demand such features in all products and services. Foster citizen empowerment and engagement and increase public-private partnerships for risk reduction Based on the increased awareness of citizens to engage in risk reduction activities, a more proactive approach has to be stimulated and developed. Citizens have to play a more decisive role within the overall DRR strategies, asking for higher safety standards directly to service or goods providers, rather than simply expecting that governments or local authorizes implement mitigation strategies. e more people are aware of the hazards and risks, the more they will ask for services and products which are not subject to threats. Focus on public-private partnerships and establish financial instruments for the generation of innovations Within the private sector approach of supplying the demand of adverse events proven goods, the role of the government will remain crucial. On the one hand, governments have to regulate the relationship between the people/consumers and the private sector that is providing the various types of products and services to people to enable them to strive in their lives in the pursuit of happiness; on the other hand, the government must ensure a clear and comprehensive framework of information (e.g. hazard maps), in order to support people/ consumers to make healthy decisions based on scientific knowledge and at the same time preventing asymmetries in the new market for the safer goods. Incentives for resilience increase in critical business sectors Incentives should be created for socially critical businesses that were able to demonstrate an increase in their resilience, based on a standardized resilience monitoring system. It could also influence the behaviour of those businesses that failed to take measures, by e.g. penalising them with higher insurance premiums, or additional levies. at is in particular true for businesses which might cause environmental emergencies, i.e. suddenonset disasters or accidents resulting from natural, technological or human-induced factors, causing a severe environmental damage as well as loss of human life and property. Ex-post forensic investigations and responsibilities of the business sector should be replaced by ex-ante responsibilities of all stakeholders. Also the government must ensure basic infrastructure for public safety which cannot be provided through market, such as hurricane forecasts and maintenance of dykes Consider the Dynamics of Risks - Strategic Monitoring and Controlling Careful monitoring of values exposed to hazards and of the vulnerability of societies and systems is important. Hazards, the exposure of values and their vulnerabilities are not constant but changing factors. Whereas awareness has risen for climate change influencing the pa ern of meteorological hazards in terms of frequency and intensity, li le a ention is paid to the increase of values exposed to hazards and of the vulnerability of societies and their critical infrastructures and services. Risks therefore have to be continuously monitored, and tools developed to enhance and harmonize the monitoring process. Knowing the characteristics and amount of risks will enable the decision makers to choose effective and effi-

14 8 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 cient DRR measures. Integrative DRR should implement the most effective, cost-efficient measures, be they permanent risk reduction measures, preparedness measures for be er response, risk transfer measures by insurances, etc. Similar tools are needed to measure progress in DRR. Indicators used should be consistent with the targets and indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) e Role of Science and Technology in Implementation Science in support of a multi-stakeholder and multi risk approa at the national level. A multi-stakeholder approach is needed for the successful implementation of risk reduction strategies and techniques at national levels. e scientific community in each country must provide easily understandable, evidence based information on risks and hazards to the private sector, the citizens and the government, so as to further raise awareness and to encourage proper choice of products and services. It is also important to provide knowledge for the drivers and incentives that push such implementation strategies and services forward. e science of HOW as described above has to provide support on how to raise awareness for DRR, on how to incentivise DRR, on how to prove evidence for DRR, etc. on an increased effort to connect the existing elements of Disaster Risk Reduction with those of the Sustainable Development Goals and the agendas of land degradation, global environmental change, health and climate change. Focus on the provision of basic human rights to ea individual e considerations and recommendation on science and technology, education and training and implementation within the post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction all centre on the individual which needs to be protected from adverse events. is protection is guaranteed if the basic human rights of each individual are provided. is is on the one hand the responsibility of the state but also of the respective service providers (compare Figure 1). Science and technology, education and training and implementation processes should all focus on the provision of these basic human rights towards the individual, and by the demands of the individual for these rights and services. Improved coordination of existing platforms and networks Existing international platforms and networks should be used for sharing knowledge, expertise and experiences. Such platforms and networks already exist within the UNISDR system and will continue to benefit from coordination and support by the ISDR Secretariat. ey are complemented by existing international conferences and workshops, where science presents latest research findings, or where science meets practice. 4. Conclusions Consolidation of the post 2015 global frameworks Managing risks and disasters require a variety of instruments and initiatives at local, national, regional and global levels to enable more effective risk management. e post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction will provide the global framework for disaster risk reduction. Nevertheless, the international community has to embark Figure 1: e individual in the context of public and private services Citation Global Risk Forum GRF (2015): IDRC Davos Outcomes: Report on Science and Technology, Education and Training, and Implementation For DRR. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 2-9, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

15 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March A nowledgements is summary is based on the outcomes of the IDRC Davos 2014 ( and a post-conference expert workshop which was organized in close cooperation with UNISDR and kindly supported by the Board of the Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology ETH. e organizers would also like to thank the local post-conference expert workshop host Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos / World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Davos ( ). participants of the expert workshop Chairs: Walter J. AMMANN President Global Risk Forum GRF Davos UNISDR STAG Member Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Davos, Switzerland Dennis WENGER Program Director for Program Element 1638, Infrastructure Systems Management and Extreme Events National Science Foundation (NSF), USA UNISDR STAG Chair Washington D.C, United States of America Co-Chairs: Alan MARCH Associate Professor in Urban Planning & Design Research Fellow Global Risk Forum GRF Davos University of Melbourne Melbourne, Australia Ortwin RENN Full professor for Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment Dean of the Economic and Social Science Department at the University of Stu gart Director of the Stu gart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies Chief of non-profit company DI- ALOGIK ZIRIUS, the Stu gart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies UNISDR STAG Member Stu gart, Germany Haresh SHAH Member, NTU Board of Trustees Obayashi Professor of Engineering, Emeritus, Stanford University Founder and Senior Advisor, Risk Management Solutions, Inc Risk Management Solutions, Inc. Newark, United States of America Peijun SHI Vice-President, Beijing Normal University Beijing Normal University UNISDR STAG Member Beijing, People s Republic of China Participants (in alphabetical order): Colin ARMSTRONG Head of Science and Policy Advice for SHED (Science in Humanitarian Emergencies and Disasters) UK Collaborative on Development Sciences London, UK Hachim BADJI Senior Coordinator of CADRI (Capacity for Disaster Reduction Initiative) UNDP Geneva, Switzerland Pedro BASABE Senior Programme Officer UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) Geneva, Switzerland John BIRCHAM Principal of Bircham-Global Bircham-Global Ltd Papamoa, New Zealand Joern BIRKMANN Head of Section and Academic Officer United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security Bonn, Germany Deborah M. BROSNAN Environment and Policy Scientist (University of California Davis) Professor of Biology (California Davis) President at Brosnan Center Virginia Tech, University of California Davis and Brosnan Center Arlington, United States of America Julie CALKINS Research Fellow UKCDS London, United Kingdom Ioana CREITARU Programme Specialist for the Capacity for Disaster Reduction Initiative (CADRI) UNDP Geneva, Switzerland Carmelo DI MAURO Principal of RGS S.r.l. Risk Governance Solutions S.r.l. Milan, Italy Mechthilde FUHRER Deputy Executive Secretary of the European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR- OPA) Council of Europe Strasbourg, France Carl GIBSON Director, Risk Management at La Trobe University La Trobe University Melbourne, Australia Bernhard M. HÄMMERLI Professor at Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts and Gjovik University College, Norway University of Lucerne Lucerne, Switzerland

16 10 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Rebecca LORDAN PhD Student at the Harris School of Public Policy Visiting researcher at the Paul Scherrer Institute Harris School of Public Policy at University of Chicago and Paul Scherrer Institut Chicago, United States of America Kai LIU Associated Professor at the Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing, People s Republic of China Alexandros MAKARIGAKIS Chair of the Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience in the Education Sector (GAD3RES) Member of the High Level Commi ee on Programme / Senior Management Group of the United Nations on DRR UNESCO Paris, France Satoru NISHIKAWA Vice-President of Japan Water Agency Japan Water Agency Saitama, Japan Francesco PISANO Chief of Department of Research at UNITAR United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNI- TAR) Geneva, Switzerland Armin PREIS Management Researcher and Consultant Vienna University of Technology Vienna, Austria Sergey PULINETS Principal Research Scientist in the Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow, Russian Federation Andreas RECHKEMMER American Humane Endowed Chair Chief Science and Policy Advisor Global Risk Forum GRF Davos University of Denver Denver, United States of America Chen REIS Director, Humanitarian Assistance Program Josef Korbel School of Int l Studies, University of Denver Denver, United States of America Badaoui ROUHBAN Senior Research Fellow Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Paris, France Marc STAL Senior Project Officer Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Davos, Switzerland Akhilesh SURJAN Associate Professor at Kyoto University s Inter-Graduate School Program for Sustainable Development and Survivable Societies (GSS Program) Kyoto University Kyoto, Japan Annibale VECERE Assistant Project Manager Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Davos, Switzerland James Herbert WILLIAMS Dean and Milton Morris Endowed Chair at the Graduate School of Social Work University of Denver Denver, United States of America Yang ZHANG Program Coordinator of the Master of Urban and Regional Planning program Founding member of its new Disaster Resilience Graduate Educational program Virginia Tech Blacksburg, United States of America

17 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e importance of a whole of community approa to using social media for disaster resilience and how the Emergency 2.0 Wiki can help CULLETON, Eileen a, a Emergency 2.0 Wiki, Brisbane, Australia, eileenculleton@gmail.com Abstract e ird World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) will be held in Sendai City, Japan in March 2015, at which countries will adopt the post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. is paper shall outline the main findings and recommendations presented by the Emergency 2.0 Wiki at IDRC Davos 2014 (which aims to provide a scientific and technological input toward the post 2015 framework for DRR). In the course of our work as an online global information hub and collaborative knowledge sharing model crowdsourcing the latest technology and best practices on using social media for disaster resilience, the Emergency 2.0 Wiki believes that social media offers the potential to play a transformative role in communities, in making disaster resilience a social norm. It is our view that social media can help communities create a level of resilience that ensures they don t just bounce back a er a disaster, but bounce forward, becoming stronger with increased social networks, social cohesion and social capital. We believe this requires a whole of community approach in which the community becomes partners in disaster resilience. Based on content on the Emergency 2.0 Wiki crowdsourced via its Reference Groups, LinkedIn Group, Twi er and Google+ channel, as well as knowledge sharing alliances with key organisations; this paper will outline four key actions we believe are needed to implement this whole of community approach and highlight resources available on the Emergency 2.0 Wiki to assist. In addition, based on a review of the current Hyogo Framework for Action, this paper also proposes recommendations for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to address gaps, needs and further steps in the areas of research, education and training, implementation and practice and policy dialogue. Keywords social media, community resilience, emergency20wiki, community empowerment, disaster resilience 1. Introduction e ird World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) will be held in Sendai City, Japan in March 2015, at which countries will adopt the post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. is paper shall outline the main findings and recommendations presented by the Emergency 2.0 Wiki at IDRC Davos 2014 (which aims to provide a scientific and technological input toward the post 2015 framework for DRR). In the course of our work as an online global information hub and collaborative knowledge sharing model crowdsourcing the latest technology and best practices on using social media for disaster resilience, the Emergency 2.0 Wiki believes that social media offers the potential to play a transformative role in communities, in making disaster resilience a social norm. It is our view that social media can help communities create a level of resilience that ensures they don t just bounce back a er a disaster, but bounce forward, becoming stronger with increased social networks, social cohesion and social capital. We believe together we can create a world where the power of social media is harnessed to enable communities to use social media to save not only their own lives in disasters, but also the lives of others. A world where: Emergency agencies use social media to issue alerts and warnings to save lives Emergency agencies engage with the community as partners

18 12 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 e community is prepared, including people with a disability Digital volunteers from across the globe provide information aid during and a er disasters e community reaches out to help the community We believe this requires a whole of community approach in which the community becomes partners in disaster resilience. is involves emergency services, the government, schools, hospitals, NGOs, community groups, private sector, media and citizens all playing a role in using social media to help the community prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. Despite the rising popularity of using social media in disasters, it is still not a normal part of mainstream emergency communications globally. Also there are few instances where a whole of community approach is applied. It is our view that what is needed is capacity building by providing the know how for using the new technologies in the disaster context, and empowerment by providing access to the tools to enable the community to help themselves and help each other. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki, a free global online resource for using social media and new technologies in emergencies, is helping close this knowledge gap and increase the takeup of social media for community resilience. e wiki provides tips, guides, mobile apps, mapping tools, videos, accessibility toolkit and an international directory of emergency agencies on social media. It has tips for citizens and guidelines for emergency services, governments, schools, hospitals, community groups and business. Based on content on the Emergency 2.0 Wiki crowdsourced via its Reference Groups, LinkedIn Group, Twitter and Google+ channel, as well as knowledge sharing alliances with key organisations; this paper will outline four key actions we believe are needed to implement this whole of community approach: 1. Incorporate social media into mainstream emergency communications 2. Engage with the community as partners 3. Capacity build the community provide education and information 4. Empower the community provide tools and platforms is paper will provide examples of how this can be done and highlight resources available on the Emergency 2.0 Wiki (see Figure 1 for a screenshot of the main page) to assist. Figure 1: Screenshot of the Emergency 2.0 Wiki main page (h p://emergency20wiki.org/wiki) In addition, based on a review of the current Hyogo Framework for Action, this paper also proposes recommendations for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to address gaps, needs and further steps in the areas of research, education and training, implementation and practice and policy dialogue. 2. Incorporate Social Media into Mainstream Emergency Communications Despite the rising popularity of communities using social media in disasters, it is still not a normal part of mainstream emergency communications globally. To accelerate takeup of social media by response agencies, capacity building is needed. Guidelines and training resources are key to this. National guidelines for using social media for disaster resilience are important to provide guidance for emergency response agencies. For those countries without guidelines, there is no need to re-invent the wheel. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains links to guidelines produced for various governments, such as the United States and New Zealand, which countries can adapt. e NZ guidelines were developed with assistance from the Emergency 2.0 Wiki which facilitated an international peer review. A French version is also available. Guidelines for collaborating with volunteer technical communities are also available courtesy of the Digital Humanitarian Network. To assist emergency services to ensure their social media messages can be accessed by people with disabilities, the Emergency 2.0 Wiki created an Accessibility Toolkit (see Figure 2). Figure 2: Screenshot of the Emergency 2.0 Wiki Accessibility Toolkit

19 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Training resources are also integral to capacity building response agencies to use social media for emergency management. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains a link to a free online social media for emergency management training course available globally (in English) courtesy of the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It is interactive, with videos and can be done in parts. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki is proud to be referenced as a resource in this course. e Wiki also contains links to case studies, conference presentations and other resources. communication, to share community recovery information and mobilise volunteers and to invite citizens to report damage/debris. 3. Engage with the Community as Partners Social media enables the whole of the community to join together to inform, share, connect and collaborate to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. A whole of community approach to using social media for disaster resilience involves emergency response agencies engaging with the community as partners in disaster prevention, preparation, response and recovery. is partnership approach involves recognizing that government, schools, hospitals, NGOs, community groups, private sector, media and citizens all have a role to play in using social media to help the community prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. is approach is demonstrated in a disaster preparedness Twi er chat held by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for a Twi er chat (see Figure 3). is partnership approach also involves inviting two way communication from the community. Information from citizens can help agencies to respond to questions and debunk rumours and receive increased situation awareness enabling efficient allocation of resources. Figure 4: Tweet by Brisbane City Council promoting a crowdmap during the eensland Floods, 27 Jan 2013 Schools can increase resilience in their communities by using social media to share preparedness information with parents. During a disaster schools can use social media to notify parents of closures (or if they are being utilised as an evacuation shelter as demonstrated in Figure 5) and in the recovery phase schools can use social media to the community to recovery information or volunteer opportunities. Figure 3: Facebook Promotion by United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for a Twi er chat on disaster preparedness on 10 Sept 2014 Figure 5: Tweet by New York City Department of Education during Hurricane Sandy, 4 Nov 2012 Governments of all levels can use social media to build community resilience. Local governments play an integral role in all phases of a disaster. ey can help increase the preparedness of their communities by using social media for risk awareness and preparedness messages. During a disaster they can utilise social media for two way communication; posting information updates with localised information such as evacuation shelters and roads closed and inviting citizens to share situation awareness information. is is demonstrated in Figure 4, a tweet by the Brisbane City Council, promoting a crowdmap during the eensland floods of In the recovery phase local governments can also use social media for two way Hospitals can increase resilience in their communities by using social media during disasters to alert the community to cancelled appointments and elective surgeries, hospital evacuations and closures and updates to patients families. In the recovery phase social media can also be used to provide updates to hospital employees on reporting for work. As you can see in Figure 6, the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation HHC utilised Twi er to issue updates to patients, staff and communities during Hurricane Sandy.

20 14 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 6: Tweets by New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation during Hurricane Sandy, 1 Nov 2012 NGOs, community groups, faith based groups, volunteer groups and services clubs are best positioned to tap into local needs in times of disaster and to help the community during the long road to recovery when outside help and media a ention subsides. Community groups can utilise their established social networks to help amplify preparedness and alert messages. Due to their position of trust they can also be a valuable provider of situation awareness information for emergency response agencies. In the recovery phase their networks can be quickly utilised to mobilise emergency relief and volunteer activities. Digital volunteers or volunteer technical communities (VTCs) specialising in disaster response can play an integral role in helping emergency response agencies during disaster response and recovery. Activities include: mapping disaster areas online and aggregating, analysing and posting information on the impact and needs; sharing and amplifying official emergency messages via social media; monitoring messages and cries for help from the public via social media and sms; verifying messages posted via social media, sms and crowdsource maps; providing 24 hour assistance due to geographic dispersal of volunteers across time zones. VTCs include: Virtual Operations Support Team (VOST), Digital Humanitarian Network, Humanity Road, Crisis Commons, Standby Task Force, Crisis Mappers and Humanitarian Toolbox. e private sector can increase business resilience by incorporating social media for resilience into employee inductions, emergency drills and business continuity procedures. During a disaster business can use social media to keep employees, customers, suppliers and stakeholders informed. In the recovery phase businesses can use social media to seek assistance or to post offers to donate goods, services and for volunteer help as demonstrated in the Tweet in Figure 7 promoting a crowdmap for business during Hurricane Sandy in the US in Figure 7: Tweet by digital volunteers Crisis Mappers promoting a crowdmap for business during Hurricane Sandy, 1 Nov 2012 Citizens play an important partnership role in all phases of a disaster. ey can help increase the preparedness of their social networks by sharing agency preparedness messages and tools such as disaster apps. During a disaster they can help amplify official messages and provide situation awareness through social media messaging and geo-tagged images and videos. In the recovery phase citizens can also help provide situational awareness to both emergency response agencies and the impacted community by providing geo-tagged images and videos. As key way this can be facilitated is via an app (see FEMA app in Figure 8). Citizens can also use social networks to let loved ones know they are safe or to rally friends and family to join them in volunteer activities or donations. Figure 8: Google+ post by Emergency 2.0 Wiki sharing an article about US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) App enabling crowdsourcing for disaster relief, 31 July 2013

21 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e Emergency 2.0 Wiki provides tips and guidelines for all sectors of the community to use social media for disaster preparation, response and recovery including examples, case studies and lessons learned from recent disasters around the world. 4. Capacity Build the Community - Provide Education and Information To effectively implement a whole of community approach for using social media for disaster resilience requires capacity building the community, providing education and information on the role they can play in using social media for disaster resilience to help themselves, each other and emergency response agencies. Public education campaigns and materials need to have social media integrated into them with simple, action oriented information such as Follow us on Twi er for up to date alerts or Download our disasters app. Campaigns also need to encourage citizens to help each other by sharing disaster information via their social networks. To encourage effective sharing of location based information for situation awareness, citizens need guidance on key information protocols such as adding the official #hashtag and the time when sharing warnings and enabling GPS on mobile devices when sharing images from the scene (see Figure 9). can use social media to become a partner in disaster recovery through the provision of products, services, facilities (eg office space, Wifi) or volunteers. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains a wealth of information that can be incorporated into public education campaigns. 5. Empower the Community - Provide the Tools and Platforms Key to empowering the community to help themselves, each other and emergency response agencies in all phases of a disaster, is providing access to official tools and platforms containing timely disaster information such as a Twi er channel, Facebook page, mobile app, crowdmap and aggregated feed Utilise Twi er for early warning alerts Twi er has proved vital in sending warning alerts to save lives. Citizens and the media can also quickly amplify warning alerts by retweeting. Twi er Alerts (see Figure 10) are a special disaster service available to agencies, enabling sms style push notifications to followers during a disaster. Agencies need to sign up for this free service and then encourage their followers to subscribe to receive their alerts. Twi er is also a key tool to mobilise volunteers in the disaster phase. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains tips on how agencies and the community can use effectively use Twi er in all phases of a disaster. It also has a link to the Twi er Alert global directory. Figure 9: Tweet by Emergency 2.0 Wiki educating the public on how to share emergency warnings via Twi er during Australian bushfires 10 Jan 2013 We need to capacity build and empower our most vulnerable populations to use social media to be prepared, to acccess warnings and alerts and up to date information. Because social media has accessibility issues, the Emergency 2.0 Wiki created an Accessibility Toolkit to enable people with a disability to overcome these issues, and to provide guidelines for emergency response agencies to ensure their social media messages are accessible. National volunteer strategies should incorporate the use of social media to access timely information, provide situation awareness information to response agencies as well as mobilising volunteers. Disaster preparation information for businesses should incorporate the use of social media for business resilience to ensure they continue providing services soon a er a disaster. is includes guidance on establishing a temporary remote workforce, engaging with stakeholders and saving key business information to the cloud. e information should also contain ideas for how business Figure 10: Screenshot of FEMA Twi er profile with Twi er Alerts feature 5.2. Use Facebook for all phases of disaster communication Facebook, as the most popular social media channel, is invaluable for building disaster resilience in the community. Its visual emphasis makes Facebook an effective channel for educating about disaster risk, and encouraging preparation. Facebook is also very effective for alerts, updates and the recovery phase. As indicated in Figure 11, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is an exmple of a government agency utilising Facebook for emergency management. It is important to note, however, that due to the way newsfeeds are aggregated, paid advertising (via sponsored

22 16 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 posts) is now essential to ensure wide message reach. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains tips on how agencies and the community can use effectively use Facebook in all phases of a disaster. Figure 11: Screenshot of Facebook page of European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control 5.3. Provide smartphone apps with multi-hazard live alerts, two way communication and social sharing Due to the rise of mobile technology and smartphones, one of the most useful tools for disaster resilience are disaster apps. Disaster apps can be designed to provide valuable information to empower citizens in each phase of a disaster. Disaster preparedness material can include checklists and videos; live alert push notification warnings can be issued, guided by GPS integration to determine user current location and surrounding incidents and links to official information sources and maps. Social media integration can enable the user to share warnings with friends and family. To assist with situation awareness apps can enable image capture for sharing of geocoded photos by the user. To encourage civic engagement in the recovery phase the app could enable citizens to ask for or offer assistance with emergency relief. Ideally the app should provide multi-hazard information. EmergencyAus (see Figure 12) is an example of an app providing most of this capability. While not an official government app (it was developed by the private sector), it demonstrates what is possible in enabling the public to help themselves, help each other and help response agencies. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains a global directory of disaster apps Utilise crowdmaps to empower citizens to help one another Crowdmaps can be used to empower citizens for resilience in all phases of a disaster. Crowdmaps are interactive maps enabling citizens to find location based disaster information as well as to share their own reports, photos and videos from the scene via sms, tweets, or webform. To enhance disaster preparation, emergency response agencies can post key information such as evacuation shelters. During the disaster agencies can post incident information such as closed roads. A er the disaster agencies can post locations for emergency relief such as water, food and shelters. Just as important is the capability for two way information. Citizens can share situation awareness information to help response agencies and their fellow citizens by posting geo-tagged sms, tweets, images and videos of incidents such as flooded roads and damage/debris. Verification of citizen information can pose a challenge and is another instance where volunteer technical communities could assist. In the recovery phase, crowdmaps, such as the map in Figure 13 for disaster relief a er Hurricane Sandy in 2013, can serve as an online hub for communities to help themselves and each other. In this instance you can see items such as locations for volunteer meeting points, drivers needed, donated goods and services, medical services and where donations are accepted. Ushahidi, a free open source tool with a mobile app is the leading crowdmap tool. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains a crowdmap directory and tips. Figure 13: Screenshot of crowdmap for disaster relief a er Hurricane Sandy One stop shop aggregated feeds Figure 12: Screenshot of EmergencyAus Smartphone App Aggregated Feeds are a highly effective way for emergency response agencies to provide live social media updates from a variety of sources in one spot. For example Australia s QLDAlert.com (see Figure 14), provides Twitter Feeds and warning updates from emergency services, weather, road and transport information, power, water, health, education and local councils on one page, along with a live warnings/incidents map. It also has official government community recovery feeds. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki contains examples of aggregated feeds.

23 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 14: Screenshot of QLD Alert feed during eensland floods Jan Added Value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction As a precursor to making recommendations for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (see section 7), conference presenters were asked to outline how their activities had supported the implementation of the current Hyogo Framework for Action. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki listed its activities as follows: 6.1. Priority 1 Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation Promoting community participation and social networking for resilience by providing tips for citizens on how to use social media to help themselves, each other and emergency response agencies Priority 2 Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning Providing guidance on how to act upon early warnings via social media including how to effectively amplify warnings to help others; providing links to early warning tools eg mobile disaster apps, Twi eralert Priority 3 Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels Facilitating exchange of information on good practices, lessons learned via the Wiki and social media channels (Blog, LinkedIn Group, Twi er, Facebook, Google+, SlideShare, YouTube); providing training and educational materials targeted at specific sectors eg local government and business; promoting engagement of social media to stimulate a culture of disaster resilience and strong community involvement in public education campaigns Priority 4 Reduce the underlying risk factors Providing an accessibility toolkit to assist people with a disability overcome accessibility challenges of social media and provide agencies with guidelines to ensure their messages are accessible; incorporating disaster risk reduction measures into post-disaster recovery by facilitating sharing of expertise, knowledge and lessons learned; providing information on how the private sector can use social media for resilience.

24 18 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Priority 5 Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels Strengthening policy, technical and institutional capacities by providing best practice guidance, resources, case studies, tips; facilitating dialogue and information exchange; encouraging active whole of community participation and encouraging volunteerism including digital volunteerism. 7. Gaps, Needs and further Steps in Disaster Risk Management that should be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Based on a review of the current Hyogo Framework for Action, this paper proposes the following recommendations for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to address gaps, needs and further steps in the areas of research, education and training, implementation and practice and policy dialogue: 7.1. Research Research into the effective use of social media for disaster resilience needs to have a greater emphasis on providing practical recommendations that can be implemented by emergency response agencies and governments. ere needs to be a stronger focus on sharing lessons learned from each disaster with the international community. Due to the rapid pace of change to social media platforms, there needs to be shorter timeframes for research projects to ensure the findings will be relevant when the report is released Education and training ere needs to be a stronger focus on capacity building communities by providing education and information on the role each sector of the community: emergency response agencies, government, NGOs, schools, hospitals, community groups, business, media and citizens, can play in using social media for disaster resilience to help themselves and each other. National guidelines and training resources for emergency response agencies need to incorporate using social media to effectively engage with the community as partners, including with volunteer technical communities providing information aid. NGOs, community groups, faith based groups, volunteer groups and service clubs need to be trained on how they can use social media to build disaster resilience in their communities. Public education campaigns and materials need to have social media integrated into them with simple, action oriented information. Campaigns need to encourage citizens to help each other by sharing disaster information via their social networks and providing guidance on how to effectively do that. Disaster preparation information for businesses needs to incorporate the use of social media both for business resilience to ensure they continue providing services soon a er a disaster and to also highlight the role they can play in community recovery Implementation and practice ere needs to be a greater emphasis on providing the social media tools and platforms such as mobile apps and crowdmaps to empower communities to help themselves, each other and emergency response agencies. Equally important is providing guidance to communities on how to effectively use these tools and platforms to help themselves and their communities and provide situational information to emergency response agencies Policy dialogue e policy dialogue needs to recognise the transformative role that social media can play in making disaster resilience a social norm. Social media offers the potential to create a level of resilience that ensures communities don t just bounce back a er a disaster, but bounce forward, becoming stronger with increased social networks, social cohesion and social capital. is requires a whole of community approach to disaster resilience in which the community become partners, using social media to help themselves and their communities. is involves recognising that along with emergency response agencies, the government, schools, hospitals, NGOs, community groups, private sector, media and citizens all have a role to play in using social media to help the community prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. To implement this whole of community approach requires capacity building the community by providing education for using social media in the disaster context and also empowering them by providing the tools and platforms to help themselves and their communities. 8. Conclusion In the course of our work as an online global information hub and collaborative knowledge sharing model crowdsourcing the latest technology and best practices on using social media for disaster resilience, the Emergency 2.0 Wiki has identified that social media offers the potential to play a transformative role in making disaster resilience a social norm. Social media can help communities create a level of resilience that ensures they don t just bounce back a er a disaster, but bounce forward, becoming stronger with increased social networks, social cohesion and social capital. is requires a whole of community approach to using social media for disaster resilience, in which the community becomes partners in disaster resilience. is approach involves recognizing that along with emergency services, the government, schools, hospitals,

25 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March NGOs, community groups, private sector, media and citizens all have a role to play in using social media to help the community prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. To implement this whole of community approach to using social media for disaster resilience, governments and response agencies need to incorporate social media into mainstream emergency communications, engage with the community as partners, capacity build the community by providing education and information and empower them by providing the tools and platforms to help themselves and their communities. e Emergency 2.0 Wiki looks forward to playing an active role in implementing the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and in helping the international community to use social media to build disaster resilience. References (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) (19 January 2015) Citation Culleton, A. (2015): e importance of a whole of community approach to using social media for disaster resilience and how the Emergency 2.0 Wiki can help. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 11-19, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

26 20 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 APELL as a Te nique for Community Preparedness Planning and Evaluation of the Planning Process SUIKKANEN, Johanna a and GABLEHOUSE, Timothy b a UNEP-DTIE Sustainable Consumption & Production Branch, Johanna.Suikkanen@unep.or b Colorado Emergency Preparedness Partnership, Inc., tgablehouse@gcgllc.com Abstract Natural and technological disasters occur everywhere and can cause harm to people and damage to the environment and property. Many communities may feel powerless when faced with these hazards. However, improved preparedness for emergencies can greatly improve a community s ability to respond and survive both natural and technological disasters. A second edition of the Handbook on APELL has been developed, offering guidance to community leaders and members, industry and local authorities that wish to improve their level of preparedness. APELL is a demonstrated process for improving community preparedness for technological accidents at the local level. It has application to natural hazards as well. Keywords APELL, community preparedness 1. Introduction ere is no doubt that people in communities impacted by natural disasters or technological accidents will by default be the first responders to that event. ey will be the first people with the opportunity to protect lives and minimize harm. e critical need is, therefore, to organize and prepare these community members. Beginning in the late 1980s, following various industrial disasters (technological accidents) that occurred around the world, resulting in adverse impacts on the environment and loss of life, various countries adopted statutes and regulations designed to improve awareness and preparedness in local communities. e United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggested a series of measures to help governments and communities, particularly in developing countries, minimize the occurrence and harmful effects of technological accidents and emergencies. Even if it is believed that all technological accidents are preventable, one must be realistic enough to be aware of potential risks and be prepared in the event that an accident occurs. Such preparation should lead to a be er understanding and awareness of local hazards, and thus to preventive actions and improved community preparedness. UNEP developed, in cooperation with the chemical industry and governments, a Handbook on Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL) - A Process for responding to technological accidents, designed to assist decision-makers and technical personnel in improving community awareness of facilities or chemical handling operations, such as factories, warehouses, ports, and other installations along with transportation where the risk of chemical releases is present, and in preparing response plans should unexpected events at these installations endanger life, property or the environment. e Handbook is not intended to replace or interfere with such national or international standards, but rather to complement these standards and programmes through improved awareness and coordination in the face of risks. e process created by the APELL Programme is a tool that can assist in achieving the goals of all these programmes. e most important reason to implement the APELL methodology is to prevent industrial accidents from happening and reduce any potential impacts of in the case of an industrial accident such as a spillage of toxic substances, an explosion or a fire, or a natural hazard induced incident. It helps avoid or minimise harm to people and damage to the environment and property. e APELL process aims at reduced vulnerability through improved community emergency preparedness and relies on the sharing of information among the concerned members of the community on the hazards in their neighborhood, allowing the community to be and to feel safer. One aspect that distinguishes APELL from other international initiatives is the local focus; the process is intended to be owned, implemented and maintained by individual communities. e Handbook is a generic doc-

27 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ument intended as an aid to leaders within communities that wish to improve their level of preparedness. It is complementary to provisions of national law or international programmes that may already be in place. e APELL Handbook gives guidance and references that will help a community assess the hazards and capabilities that exist to address those hazards. e APELL process can be initiated by any individual or organization potentially affected by hazards and risks present in their community; but on specific elements of the methodology there may be need to seek support from external experts. UNEP has made significant efforts to raise worldwide awareness of the effectiveness of the APELL Process for improving local awareness and preparedness for technological accidents and natural disasters. APELL has been introduced in more than 30 countries, and in more than 80 communities. is has resulted in long-lasting locallevel partnerships, including some that have been active for more than 15 years, and has led to successful multi-stakeholder emergency preparedness efforts. Specific guidance materials have been prepared for the chemical, mining, and transport sectors, port areas and storage facilities which have been applied in industrialized communities worldwide. e 2nd edition of the APELL Handbook in in production. e guidance it contains is based on the experience that has been gathered in the past decades. e new edition of the Handbook recognizes that in most communities there is no difference between the people and organizations that engage in preparedness planning for technological and natural disasters. As a result the handbook emphasizes that preparedness is a locally led process that must be flexible in order to adapt to local conditions. Because it is a local process identifying and measuring successes must also be tied to the local context and must be measured locally. e Handbook aims to give guidance on how to create metrics and measure success. is guidance is discussed further below. 2. How APELL Works e specific goals of the APELL Process are: Provide information to the concerned members of the community on the hazards in their neighborhood, and the measures taken to reduce these hazards Review, update, or establish emergency preparedness plans in the local area Increase local industry involvement in community awareness and emergency preparedness planning Integrate industry emergency plans with local emergency plans into one overall plan for the community to improve preparedness for all types of emergencies Involve members of the local community in the development, testing and implementation of the overall emergency preparedness plan. e current handbook is available for download at:. APELL is a coordinated planning process designed to improve, first, community awareness and, second, preparedness for technological accidents and natural disasters that could have impacts on the community. Its overall goals are to help communities prevent loss of life, damage to health, well-being and livelihoods, minimize property damage, and protect the environment. ese same goals apply regardless of the nature of the emergency, whether it is a technological accident, a natural disaster or a combination of events such as might occur following an earthquake or tsunami disaster or smaller scale events such as lightning storms. e tools and assets available to a community for both preparedness and response are typically not different between these sorts of events. As a result, the APELL planning process is equally applicable to preparedness planning for technological or natural disasters. At the local level there are three very important partners who must be involved if the preparedness level of the community is to be improved: Local government authorities: ese may include province, district, city or town officials, either elected or appointed, who are responsible for safety, public health and environmental protection in their area. Industry: Plant managers of local facilities whether state-owned or private companies, managers of logistic companies, or the managers of any enterprise handling hazardous materials in the community who are responsible for safety and accident prevention in their operations. Local community and interest groups: ese may include groups involved in environmental protection, health, lay care, media, and religious organizations, as well as leaders in the educational and business sectors that represent the concerns and views of their constituents in the community. It is likely that some community members will already have addressed some or all of the elements of the APELL Process. is Handbook anticipates that response plans in particular are likely to have been created by industry, government or volunteer agencies such as fire brigades. e APELL planning process builds upon whatever preparedness and response programmes, plans and efforts already exist in the community. At the national level, governments have an important role to provide the cooperative climate and support under which local participants can achieve be er preparedness. rough leadership and endorsement, national authorities should foster participation of everyone at the local level and to the extent available, the APELL Process should be incorporated into existing local or national environmental and safety regulatory structures. e 2nd edition of the Handbook incorporates the objectives of the 1988 Edition of the Handbook and presents the APELL Process as a practical, focused framework for action adaptable for each community s goals and vision of success. e APELL Process has two parallel and complementary objectives: raising awareness, communicating and educating the community and improving emergency

28 22 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 preparedness planning; including the development of coordinated and integrated emergency preparedness plans. In many ways, the process is as important or more important as the resulting or improved preparedness plans. e APELL Process seeks to improve community awareness and integrated preparedness for emergencies through a coordinated process involving all members of the community. e most successful APELL programmes spread responsibility throughout all the stakeholders in the community. e APELL Process creates a dialogue about risk, capabilities and plans involving all stakeholders. is leads to clear responsibilities and expectations for all community members. e heart of the APELL Process is the coordinating group, bringing together the various stakeholders in the community, including decision-makers from industry, government, response organisations, and others who may be affected by emergencies or can provide valuable expertise or information, including community leaders and representatives. APELL relies on broad community participation, flexibility to adapt to the conditions of any community and constant effort to refresh the process. e APELL Handbook provides the basic concepts for initiating and managing the APELL Process. ese are organized into ten conceptual elements within five phases of activity. e first phase provides advice on involving the right participants and organizations. e second phase is focused on understanding and improving awareness of the risks in the community. e third phase examines plans and capabilities, and establishes a vision of success for the community s efforts to improve preparedness. e fourth phase involves education, training and other efforts to implement emergency plans. e fi h phase discusses the cycle of continuous improvement. e concepts and tools suggested are flexible, and the mechanics of their operation should be adapted to specific local conditions and requirements. Although the elements are presented in sequence, it is stressed that this is an iterative process and it may be necessary to revisit or repeat elements at different points and to otherwise adapt to community conditions. 3. Measuring Progress at the Community Level ere is no doubt that the APELL Process has made valuable contributions in community preparedness. It is nonetheless important to have a clear process by which communities can measure their progress and determine if the actions they are taking continue to achieve the desired outcomes. e approach recommended by the 2nd edition of the APELL Handbook is based on Guidance on Developing Safety Performance Indicators related to Chemical Accident Prevention, Preparedness and Response for Public Authorities and Communities, which was published by the Organization for Economic Development (OECD) in December is Guidance can be useful for Communities wishing to develop metrics that measure and demonstrate progress towards the Vision of Success. e Guidance focuses on the process of establishing indicators that are relevant to the community s situation and its particular vision of success. e choice of the right indicators is important. For example, the number of people trained is less important than whether the training they received was targeted at a capabilities gap and whether or not the success of the training is verified through testing or exercises. ere is also a Guidance on Developing Safety Performance Indicators for Industry which can be used in parallel. e full guidance may be found at. An interactive website allows users to select and customize their review program at. Se ing goals and measuring progress allows communities to take a step-by-step approach to reducing the likelihood of accidents and improving preparedness and response capabilities. Depending upon local risks, capacities and conditions there several possible goals and metrics that can be applied to the activities of communities in following the APELL Process. One size does not fit all. e advantage of this program for Coordinating Groups is the ability to set goals and measure progress in a way that is specifically relevant to the community. e success of the APELL Process may be evaluated by local government entities, the mayor, the city council, or a similar group, in order to determine an appropriate level of funding as well as whether the work deserves the time and a ention of the Stakeholders. Industry may want to know if the chemical information (and o en, the financial support) they provide is being used wisely and efficiently. Individual citizens may wonder if the work is effectively protecting them. National government agencies may use indicators of success to support grant funding and other decisions related to support of the APELL Process. And, of course, the people directly involved in trying to improve community preparedness individually will want to determine if they are satisfied with the work and whether the efforts have led to be er protection of the community from technological risks and natural hazard events. All these and other issues can provide the reason to measure the progress of the APELL Process. 4. How to Measure Progress Many expect a checklist of what they should be doing to be provided to them. However, it is be er for APELL Process Coordinating Groups to have their own Vision of Success based upon the risks, capacities and conditions in the community they serve. at vision should be written, clear and come from a group discussion of the concerns and motivations that caused the participants of the Coordinating Group to join. It may be that none of the Coordinating Group members believe the vision is obtainable given current resources. at does not ma er as long as the Coordinating Group understands its mission is to make progress towards the vision. e Vision of Success is an aspirational goal and should set the long-term objectives for the work done by the Coordinating Group. Some Coordinating Groups have adopted a Vision of Success along the lines of an engaged community with a

29 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March broad safety and preparedness culture as shown by: Robust emergency planning and personal preparation Effective and safe response Accidents are prevented Obviously, this or any Vision of Success cannot be achieved in one or two steps. It is, instead, achieved through a progression of activities designed to achieve milestones along the path to success. To define these steps Coordinating Groups for the APELL Process establish both long-term and short-term goals that it believes will lead to achieving the Vision of Success. ese goals should be a product of clear discussion and agreement among the Coordinating Group membership with community stakeholder participation. In using the OECD manuals it is important to understand that there is a change in terminology. For purposes of the SPI program goals are o en called outcomes. e key distinction is that outputs are the products that the created (e.g., your emergency plan, your evacuation plan) or things that you do (e.g., conduct monthly meetings) but they are not the goals or outcomes that lead to your Vision of Success. Instead, achieving a goal or outcome requires measuring the results from outputs or activities in a way that is relevant to the goals or outcomes. For the purposes of SPI these results are called targets or metrics. In other words, when a goal is set it should be paired with the metric that demonstrates whether progress towards the goal is being made and when the goal is achieved e following examples will clarify the outcome/output distinction and the role of targets. If the community has recently had a chemical release that led to injuries and deaths, the Community could establish a goal: no more injuries and deaths from a technological accident in this community. at is a clear goal, perhaps overly ambitious in the eyes of some people, but one that is understandable and sensible in the context of the community s recent history. ere are a variety of possible metrics/targets: no deaths or injuries this year, no accidental releases this year, and/or a 30% reduction in the number of accidental releases this year. As for outputs, the products and/or activities that the Coordinating Group undertakes to meet the metric/target for the goal, it could be a revised emergency plan, exercises to test the emergency plan, training for local responders, outreach materials for local citizens to ensure that they know the appropriate steps to take if there is an accidental release, improved notification systems to ensure that citizens are aware of a release, establishing a continuous dialog with industries in the community on risk reduction and accident prevention, and so forth. e Coordinating Group then looks at the metrics/targets, including trends and changes over time, to determine if the outputs are productive and useful in achieving the goal. e Community might have as a goal that local citizens be aware of the chemical hazards present in the community combined with a goal that will involve increased awareness of personal responsibility and appropriate actions in the event of an accident. e target could be a specific annual increase in the number of people familiar with local chemical hazards. Measuring success could involve some process for interviewing citizens annually or citizen performance in exercises or other tests of emergency plans. Activities or outputs to achieve this goal could be public meetings at which chemical hazard information is shared, printed materials with maps showing the location of specific chemicals, video materials for use on television programs and/or at public meetings. Another possible goal is to have all facilities in the community be in full compliance with environmental protection or worker safety laws. Targets could be an annual increase in the number of facilities that have submi ed information or a reduction in the number of facilities found to be in noncompliance during inspections. Activities to accomplish these targets, might include an annual campaign focused on a specific industry sector, or a public campaign urging all facilities to submit the required information. A specific preparedness goal might be for all students and teachers in local schools to be familiar with what actions they should take if there is a technological accident in the community with a possible impact on the school. A possible target could be the number of students/teachers who take the appropriate action during an exercise. As activities the Community could conduct training on hazard awareness, shelter in place, develop print and audio/visual materials, and/or prepare signs to post at strategic points. 5. Conclusion e most important reason to implement the APELL methodology is to prevent industrial accidents from happening and reduce any potential impacts of in the case of an industrial accident such as a spillage of toxic substances, an explosion or a fire, or a natural hazard induced incident. It helps avoid or minimise harm to people and damage to the environment and property. e APELL process aims at reduced vulnerability through improved community emergency preparedness and relies on the sharing of information among the concerned members of the community on the hazards in their neighborhood, allowing the community to be and to feel safer. Citation Suikkanen, J. and Gablehouse, T. (2015): APELL as a Technique for Community Preparedness Planning and Evaluation of the Planning Process. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 20-23, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

30 24 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Early Warning Some Recent Developments NEUSSNER, Olaf a a Global Initiative for Disaster Risk Management (GIDRM), Deutsche Gesellscha fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Manila, Philippines, olafneus@gmx.net Abstract Recent advances in early warning have been observed in science and technology as well as the overall effectiveness of end-to-end early warning systems. e accuracy in predicting earthquakes is slowly increasing, but it is still far from being applicable to routine early warning systems. Tests of landslide warning systems based on motion sensors of slopes are progressing and might be used more widespread in the coming years. Fast communication is not a real issue for today s technology, but spreading alert information quickly to large communities without access to modern communication equipment remains a problem. However, some experiences of locally anchored early warning systems point to higher effectiveness if they are managed decentralized within communities. ough EWS have to be adjusted to local circumstances the growing number of temporary visitors (e.g. migrants, tourists) in the world, require some type of international standard easily understood by everyone. While the wording may be local plus internationally used languages (e.g. English), signs/icons should follow international conventions. Keywords early warning systems, earthquakes, river floods, storm surge, storm, innovations in science and technology 1. Introduction Most, if not all extreme natural events leading to disasters have precursors which may be used to warn of the approaching danger, take appropriate action and mitigate the effects of such an event. Over the last decades a lot of progress has been made with the establishment of Early Warning Systems (EWS). Many more are in place today and scientific as well as technical developments led to improved quality of hazard detection and communications. However, still many disasters cause avoidable casualties and damages and considerable effort is invested in analysing what went wrong and how systems can be improved. In this article recent developments in early warning are described using two different ways: assessing progress concerning specific hazards and by analysing the four elements of EWS (risk knowledge, monitoring and warning service, communication, response capacity). e first of the two options, hazard specific systems, deal predominantly with scientific methods of determining dangerous natural developments. Advances in space technology and more widespread use of ground based sensors led to be er understanding of natural phenomena increasing the precision of forecasts. e second option of describing EWS looks at the complete warning chain starting from risk knowledge (e.g. hazard maps) to the final response capacity (e.g. suitable evacuation centres). e whole EWS is only as strong as the weakest element in the chain and recent calamities like Haiyan in the Philippines demonstrate that weakness in one part can lead to many casualties. e International Disaster Risk Conference in Davos, Switzerland, in August 2014 contributed to an exchange of professionals involved in early warning with many presentations and lively discussions about new insights. is paper is not intended to give a complete overview of news on early warning efforts. It concentrates on those topics presented in Davos and adds some of the experiences of GIZ. 2. Hazard Spezific Aspects of Early Warning Observing nature and specifically precursors of potentially dangerous events is the domain of science and technology. e combination of ground based sensors, earth observation from space and computer simulations have expanded the capabilities of institutions tasked with early warning over the last decades. However, there are still many challenges ahead, the biggest probably forecasting earthquakes.

31 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model (Pulinets, 2009) ough science is the main pillar of forecasting in some cases community-based observations are complementing the o en expensive and complicated technical systems. Especially in the context of smaller communities in developing countries, inexpensive, simpler solutions with the involvement of volunteer observers have proven to be adequate approaches for some hazards Earthquakes For all globally important natural hazards some methods of practical applicable early warning are available (storm, floods, volcano, tsunami, drought), but strong earthquakes still elude forecasts to a large extent. Researchers investigate many different phenomena associated with precursors of earthquakes, but though some of them have a significant correlation with earthquakes, the spatial and temporal precision is far from applicable for concrete preparedness measures. In recent years it has been tried to combine many such indicators leading towards a marked increase in accuracy. ree researchers (Ouzounov, 2014: 168; Perminov, 2014: 170; Pulinets, 2014: 175) took a large array of indicators, most of them space based, and applied the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model (Figure 1) with these data. ey tested the model in recent years with earthquakes of magnitude e results indicate that large earthquakes were mostly predicted with a temporal precision of some weeks and a spatial resolution of a circle of 400km diameter. is is a marked improvement compared to previous applications of the LAIC model and other methods which o en did not even show a significant correlation between an indicator and actual earthquakes. For practical applicability especially the date of an expected strong earthquake is important and if the researchers manage to reach this precision an early warning system may be established Seasonal Rain Forecasts and Floods Disaster institutions and agriculture are interested in seasonal weather forecasts. ey need to allocate resources and take precautions for extreme conditions and events. Seasonal forecasts are provided in many countries and representatives from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) reported about their method of seasonal rain prediction (SRP) in the International Disaster Risk Conference in Davos in August 2014 (Alozie, 2014: 44). NiMet produces SRPs with about one month lead time. Disaster risk managers like the National Emergency Management Agency, (NEMA) are known to use seasonal climate forecasts as a starting point for preparedness and resource planning, and to inform agricultural management decisions such as crop and variety choice. Seasonal forecasts as practised in Nigeria are a good basis for preparedness for floods and other rain-related extreme events, but the backbone for early warning are short-term weather predictions used for flood alerts. Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) for inland/river floods do not pose a real scientific challenge any more. All major rivers with significant numbers of residents in flood prone areas are equipped with EWS and technically they can easily achieve a perfect record (no missed floods, warning for all actual floods). However, certain constellations are still not fully covered by FEWS, such as flash floods, ponding, and floods in smaller rivers. Toronto experienced torrential rains in July 2013 when two thunderstorms collided over the city. is resulted in serious transportation interruptions and it was the most costly calamity in the history of the Canadian city. Ac-

32 26 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 2: Leyte, Philippines. Le : Community volunteer with the display of a tipping bucket rain gauge on the roof of the house; right: a community member paints a staff gauge at the pillar of a bridge. cording to the researchers (Asgary, 2014: 109) the population was not warned of the heavy rains and accordingly did not take any advance action. e researchers found that a be er early warning system would have reduced the losses caused by the floods. Many smaller rivers all over the world experience regular floods, but they do not have FEWS and residents may only receive a general warning of inclement weather conditions approaching. As the number of such small rivers is huge a full coverage of all these rivers with the spectrum of available technologies would be economically not viable as the establishment and maintenance is too costly. Furthermore, complex systems require expertise (e.g. hydrologists) for operation and the permanent assignment of these specialists is also not sustainable. Low cost and simple EWS have been tried and tested in several places and the Deutsche Gesellscha ür Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) promoted them together with the Philippine weather agency PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration)(Hernando, 2013; GIZ, 2012). A total of 16 such local FEWS were established from in the country. With guidance and advice from PAGASA and GIZ municipalities, cities and provinces set up local FEWS and are operating them now with their own staff and resources. e model also involves volunteers to detect water level and rain upstream (Figure 2). Some of them serve as a backup if the automated devices fail. By and large the FEWS have proven to be reliable and they issued many flood warnings giving the population additional hours to prepare their households and evacuate (Neussner, 2012, 153). In a GIZ commissioned survey in 2011 two thirds of the respondents of flood affected areas said that they feel their lives are be er protected than before. Currently GIZ is in the process of replicating the local FEWS model in other Asian countries (Myanmar, ailand, Vietnam)¹ Storm and Storm Surge Tropical cyclones are tracked and their paths predicted with days advance notice to those expected to be affected by the storm. Very o en wind speeds, location and time are forecasted quite well, but this does not necessarily apply to the accompanying rain or the occurrence and height as well as extend of storm surges. e most deadly disaster of 2013, the typhoon Haiyan (local Philippine name Yolanda) crossed the Philippines on 8 November 2013 and illustrated these problems as described by researchers (Tohoku University, 2014; Neussner, 2014). e weather bureau Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Service Administration (PA- GASA) issued severe wind warnings three days before the storm made landfall. On 7 November a storm surge warning was added, but warning of heavy rains and landslides were already issued earlier. All this would have given enough time to take appropriate action and leave the danger zone, but 30% (Tohoku University, 2014) or in some places up to 50% (Neussner, 2014) did not evacuate. Interviews with residents revealed a multitude of reasons why people did not leave their homes near the coast. Many apparently underestimated the seriousness of the upcoming storm and thought that they are safe in their houses. As approximately 95% of the deceased were killed by the storm surge in Leyte, the combination of underestimating the inundation area, unclear messages (and some other reasons) highlighted the need for improvements needed especially with regards to the inundation danger zone. e survey results and computer modelling can improve the maps considerably. ere are already efforts on the way to change the wording of warning messages to simpler terms in order to avoid communication problems in the future. ¹Funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Development (BMZ) in the framework of the project Global Initiative for Disaster Risk Management

33 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 3: Landslide motion sensors in Southern Leyte, Philippines. Le : Installation and functionality test. Right: Location of sensor in tube near crevices (red arrows) indicating recent soil movements. Figure 4: Flume tests of landslide motion sensors in the facilities of the Department of Public Works and Highways in Manila, Philippines Landslides ough landslides are very limited in their extent they are o en devastating in a small area. ey may be triggered by earthquakes, excessive rain or even human activities. In most cases they happen with precursor signs which may be used for early warning purposes. Typically a slope moves slowly a li le before a big failure happens. e small, creeping movements are o en indicated by tilted trees or fences, crevices in the ground or changes in the behaviour of small streams (increased turbidity). e detection of dangerous small movements with different types of motion sensors is currently being tested in some parts of the world. e installed systems are in the development stage and it will take many years before they can be used on a routine basis for reliable predictions and warnings. e Deutsche Gesellscha fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) promotes the development of landslide early warning systems in the Philippines and has installed five sets of motion sensors in Leyte Island²(examples in Figure 3). e selected sites show signs of previous motions, normally cracks in the top soil. e sensors detect tilting, acceleration and changes in atmospheric pressure and the latest generation of sensors can also monitor soil humidity. Data are transmi ed via radio to operation centers nearby. e sensors are functioning but no actual suspicious movement happened in the test sites up to now. ey were also tested under laboratory conditions (Figure 4). Further testing and development of the systems is needed. Initial thresholds concerning suspicious movements have been set, but they have not been verified yet. is will be important as the ratio between false alarms and actual landslides is determined by these thresholds. Only if a reasonable reliability is achieved landslide warning systems could be established in bigger numbers for routine operations Atmospheric threats A topic usually not receiving much a ention in the disaster risk community was presented by Fernandez de Arroyabe (Fernandez de Arroyabe, 2014: 247) in Davos. ere are a number of specific health risks linked to atmospheric conditions. Variations in oxygen content, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, sun radiation, ozone levels, electromagnetic fields and others may pose a threat to some persons and Fernandez described a correlation between an influenza outbreak in Iberian Peninsula in 2004/5 and meteorological contrast index parameters. As weather is predicted by meteorologists the data may be utilized for biometeorological forecasting, but how individuals are reacting to changes in atmospheric conditions depends largely on their specific condition. erefore Fernandez suggests establishing individually customized early warn- ²Currently with the project Global Initiative for Disaster Risk Management

34 28 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 5: Tacloban, Leyte, Philippines. Le : Storm surge hazard map by PAGASA, potential inundation area in purple (1m > 4m); right: actual inundation on 8 Nov from physical signs and interviews (Tohoku, 2014) ing systems. is could be facilitated with Apps using individual bio-data and processing them with parameters from weather forecasts resulting in individualized biometeorological alerts. 3. Effectiveness of early warning systems ough the methods of detecting approaching dangerous natural events are very hazard specific, the other elements of a functioning Early Warning System (EWS) are common for all types of hazards. UNISDR facilitated the publication of a checklist for EWS (UNISDR, 2006) enumerating four elements constituting an operational EWS: Risk Awareness Monitoring And Warning Service Dissemination And Communication Response Capability Furthermore, governance and institutional arrangements were identified as a cross cu ing issue. EWS are only working properly if all for elements are in place, operational and handled by competent staff. With this the EWS might disseminate timely warnings, but the most important factor for successful preparations for a potentially disastorous event are the people in the affected area. e term People Centered Early Warning System has been coined to highlight that EWS have to be established with and for the communities they are expected to serve. Failure to do so might produce technically well working systems issuing warnings residents do not understand or ignore because of mistrust. is chapter looks at the elements of EWS and some recent developments, among them those presented in the IDRC in Davos in August Risk awareness A good EWS is based on sound risk knowledge with designated institutions responsible for collecting and providing such information to the government, the public (and the international community). It covers hazard characteristics (intensity, frequency, probability and geographic extent), vulnerability analysis of communities who might be affected, and also a risk assessment derived from the interaction of vulnerability and hazard. An example of incomplete hazard information leading to many casualties is the tropical cyclone Haiyan in Leyte, Philippines, on 8 November e high death toll has more than one reason, but a lack of risk awareness certainly contributed substantially to the magnitude of the catastrophe. It has been estimated that 30% (Tohoku University, 2014) or in some places up to 50% (Neussner, 2014) of the residents of coastal areas inundated by the storm surge did not evacuate. e storm surge proofed to be the main cause of death. Approximately 95% (= 5000 persons) of the deceased in Leyte died from the surge and 5% from the high wind speed of the storm (collapsing buildings, flying debris, falling trees)(neussner, 2014). One reason for the non-evacuation might be the official storm surge hazard map. An example is displayed in Figure 5 together with a map of the actual inundation area. Obviously it was believed that many people lived in safe areas although they did not. e maps show clear differences between the official hazard map and the actual extent of the storm surge. Usually officials tasked with the information of communities in need of evacuation would look at the governmental hazard map and inform the respective neighborhoods accordingly. Based on interviews conducted by GIZ most staff responsible for disaster risk management in local government units along the eastern coast of Leyte said that they consulted the map before the storm hit the island. Officials identified a number of evacuation centers outside the area marked as storm surge prone, but the water of the surge flooded some of those centers and many died there. e underestimation of the storm surge inundation area on the official hazard map highlights the need to design EWS in a comprehensive, end-to-end manner, with due a ention to risk assessments.

35 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 6: Proposed four stage alert scheme. Symbols for illustration purposes only Monitoring and Warning Service e detection of an upcoming threat is hazard specific and has been discussed in the Chapter 2, Hazard Specific Aspects of Early Warning. For many hazards the sources of information and data gathering involve a multitude of sensors and sources with the recent addition of crowd sourced information. Many of those are not yet accessible to staff tasked with warning decisions. Usländer suggested in his presentation in Davos (IDRC, 2014: 729) that the seamless interconnection of devices to the Internet, being sensors of all types ranging from in-situ measurement devices, sensors on smart phones up to hyperspectral cameras mounted on satellites, offers an enormous potential for the improvement in recognizing and assessing risks, for the targeted launch of preventive measures e.g. improved quality, preciseness and personalization of early warnings. e same is true for the decision support in disaster management, especially concerning early warning. However, to exploit this potential, there is an urgent need to improve interoperability. erefore, Usländer argues for an open approach of sensor-based global information management based upon international standards. In some cases decision makers do not have too li le but potentially too much information and the current diverse structure of data in the internet does not provide them with the appropriate tools. e measures proposed by Usländer would solve this problem at least partly. Technology and the capability of handling it is not as widespread as it should be and development assistance of highly industrialized countries (e.g. Britain, Germany, Japan, US) to developing countries is essential for the advancement of early warning systems. An example of cooperation to this effect was provided in Davos by the British Met Office. It supports many countries in their technical needs for improved weather services, including those relevant for early warning (Donovan, 2014: 218). e Deutsche Gesellscha fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) addressed another problem of warning decisions. In case operation centers are far away from the site the staff may not be very familiar with local circumstances, the question of who in what area should be alerted first or whom to contact if a primary contact fails or communication to the far-away countryside is interrupted, is solved if the operation center is located near the jeopardized site and locals are working in the center. GIZ promoted Local Flood Early Warning Systems (LFEWS) in 16 river basins in the Philippines with locals in charge of the operations. Commitment to the affected communities and familiarity with the area and the rivers proofed to be an advantage for the smooth operation of the systems. Decisions on early warning are normally provided in alert stages. Starting from a low level, usually asking the public to be on alert and wait for further instructions, up to the highest level, commonly ordering evacuation and to take shelter. In many countries different hazards have different warning stages (e.g. 3 for floods, 4 for storm and 5 for volcano). is might be clear and logic for some experts but most people may be confused by different alert stages. In interviews a er the storm Haiyan in the Philippines GIZ found that many people did not know how many alert levels storm has or they did not know what warning stage was raised before the typhoon hit land (Neussner, 2014). e author proposed a simplification and using a universal four stage system (Neussner, 2014). is would also consider the fact that in today s world many people are migrants or travelling (e.g tourists) and are therefore not familiar with local peculiarities. A worldwide standard would reduce the problem of diverse schemes leading to confusion. e scheme displayed in Figure 6 shows four hazards with sample symbols, but it could be easily expanded to other hazards. e colors for stages 2-4 appear to have some universal acceptance while level 1 is blue in some warning schemes, but it seems that the color green is more widely used for a stage that should signal that things are fine (but a ention is needed) Communication Once a warning decision has been taken by a designated office and a specific alert level is in force for a certain

36 30 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 7: Communication chain from the Operation Center to households in Local Flood Early Warning Systems (LFEWS) promoted by GIZ in the Philippines. area, this has to be communicated to disaster professionals and the general public without delay. is communication faces two challenges. It is a technical challenge as the news has to be spread fast to ALL concerned and it has to be understood by everyone. Modern communication technology is fast, but some hazards like local tsunamis, landslides or flash floods require widespread alerts within minutes a er a warning decision is taken. One aspect of this issue was addressed by Asgary and co-worker with reference to a flash flood in Toronto in June Asgary used AnyLogic simulation so ware and showed that a be er coordination between the emergency managers and media of the emergency alerts and warnings, and general public a ention to the emergency warning messages and subsequent actions could have significantly minimized the overall impacts of the flash flood. Communication of warning o en is not always a matter of minutes. For many hazards hours or days are acceptable warning times (e.g. distant tsunamis, tropical cyclones, floods in bigger rivers) and technology is not the limiting factor. is means simple and cheap communication chains are achieving good results. An Example is displayed in Figure 7. e alert levels are communicated in a largely two way system from the Operation Centre to municipalities, then villages and finally households. In addition there is public radio and TV, but there is no provision for feedback with these channels and therefore the backbone of the communication is the upper chain in Figure 7. Communication is mostly via handheld radios, mobile and landline phones, while on community level, megaphones, bells or messengers going from house to house are used. It is noteworthy that these systems do not include internet-based devices yet (smart phones, tablets, computers) as they are not commonly used yet in rural areas of the Philippines. ese simple communication chains were successful in transmi ing warnings to all those who needed to be alerted. e second challenge of communicating warning messages to the public is the issue of understanding these messages. Different types of hazards and different alert levels have to be clearly distinguished, but lengthy explanations are too time consuming and might not be clear enough. A compromise between being too simple and too complicated needs to be found and the terms used must be unambiguous. An example of a problem of understanding the warning of a governmental institution is the English term storm surge used by Philippine authorities before the tropical cyclone Haiyan made landfall on 8 November 2013 in the country. Many coastal residents complained later that they did not understand this term (Tohoku, 2014; Neussner, 2014) and that it describes a wave with the characteristics of a tsunami. Interestingly no appropriate translation of the English term storm surge exists in local languages (Waray or Cebuano) and it was suggested that the authorities should have warned of a tsunami. e proposition met resistance from scientists who do not want the two phenomena to be confused. e discussion is still going on and efforts are made to find terms to explain natural phenomena in simple words and also clear symbols without losing important information. e author believes that especially the symbols should be following worldwide standards in order to accommodate the growing number of temporary visitors (e.g. migrants, tourists), while the wording may be local plus internationally used languages (e.g. English). is topic might be suitable for deliberations in the 3rd United Nations World Conference on DRR scheduled to take place in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan Response Capacity Early warning only makes sense if there are means of reacting properly to a warning. is concerns mainly the provision of evacuation centres and respective evacuation routes, but also search and rescue services and stocks of relief goods for emergencies. ere are few buildings constructed with the sole purpose of serving as evacuation centres. Evacuations are rare events and it would be a waste to have buildings unused most of the time. erefore many public buildings are temporarily used to host evacuees. Schools, gymnasiums, community centers or in some cases religious buildings (e.g. churches) are utilized. Having appropriate places for shelter is not really a challenge for technology, but more one of proper organization and coordination. Of course, an evacuation cen-

37 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ter, should provide safety and needs to be outside of the hazard area or sturdy enough to withstand the forces of nature. Furthermore, buildings designated as evacuation centers should provide some minimum facilities (toilets, water, space for cooking)( e Sphere Project, 2004) Governance and Institutional Arrangements Occasionally Early Warning Systems (EWS) are primarily seen as technical arrangements of detecting a threat and using a communication chain for the dissemination of a warning. However, many cases of non-ideal performance of EWS are not technical issues but aspects involving the institutional arrangements of EWS. Very o en many different offices and institutions are involved in EWS. e threat detection is usually a scientific task, but decision making may be done by a politician, while the dissemination of the alert may be carried out by another office (e.g. Ministry of the Interior or a designated disaster office), and public media (private or governmental). Clear definition of roles is essential and may facilitate the fast and comprehensive information of all concerned. Some contributions during the International Disaster Risk Conference in Davos in August 2014 assessed previous disasters and noted that institutional issues reduced the effectiveness of the EWS (Asgary, 2014; Neussner, 2014). In the experience of Deutsche Gesellscha fuer Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) a locally run Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) reduces the number of players and increases the effectiveness of the FEWS (GIZ, 2012). In this type of setup the detection, decision making, and initial warning are in one hand no disputes about responsibilities arise. 4. Conclusion Early Warning Systems (EWS) have not reached their full potential yet. ere are still some scientific and technical issues to be solved for rapid onset extreme natural events (earthquakes, local tsunamis, flash floods, landslides), and mature existing technology for storms, river floods, volcanoes, distant tsunamis needs to be applied more widespread, including remote communities and developing countries. Furthermore, the diversity of early warning alert stages, warning messages and signs/icons, is confusing and some standardization would increase the effectiveness of EWS. For earthquakes the main challenge remains to be the short-term prediction of an event. e spatial precision of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model may be already good enough, but the temporal accuracy is not yet in the range of practical applications. Landslide motion sensors are tested in many places, but their reliability and accuracy has also not reached the level for mass application yet. All rapid onset events need fast and widespread communication structures. ough it is possible to inform some recipients on short notice, the problem on how to secure that everyone in a danger zone gets the message, is still a challenge. Many areas in the world require EWS but none is operational there yet. Political decision makers should consider establishing smaller, local EWS in order to fill remain gaps. ough EWS have to be adjusted to local circumstances the growing number of temporary visitors (e.g. migrants, tourists) in the world, require some type of international standard easily understood by everyone. While the wording may be local plus internationally used languages (e.g. English), signs/icons should follow international conventions. is topic might be suitable for deliberations in the 3rd United Nations World Conference on DRR scheduled to take place in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan. References Alozie, J. et al. (2014): e Seasonal Rainfall Prediction: Early Warning Tool for Disaster Risk Reduction in Nigeria, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 44 Asgary, A. et al. (2014): Simulating Disaster Warning and Alerting Effectiveness, an Agent Based Approach, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 109 Donovan, T. (2014): Working together to deliver sustainable development through weather and climate services, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 218 Fernandez de Arroyabe, P. (2014): Atmospheric determinants of health risks and customized early warning systems, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 247 Hernando, H. et al. (2013): Community involvement and local flood early warning with low-tech approaches for small rivers in the Philippines, Presentation at the World Bank workshop Flood Risk Management and Urban Resilience in Seoul, Korea ( ) (15 Oct 2014) GIZ (2012): Local Flood Early Warning Systems, Manila, 54 pages ( ) (16 Oct 2014) Neussner, O. (2012): Community participation in local flood early warning systems based on low-technology approaches in the Philippines, in: Government of Germany: Experiences in Disaster Risk Management within the German Development Cooperation (Special Joint G20 Publication for DRM), ( ) (17 Oct 2014) Neussner, O. (2014): Assessment of Early Warning Efforts in Leyte for Typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda, March 2014, 64 pages ( ) (18 Oct 2014) Ouzounov, D. et al. (2014): Testing new methodologies for alerting large earthquakes: An integrated geo space approach and ground observations, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 168

38 32 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Perminov, A.N. et al. (2014): Methodology of Short-term Powerful Earthquakes Forecasting and Warnings rough the Using of Space-ground Monitoring Data: Russian Approach, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 170 Pulinets, S. et al.: Novel conception of short-term earthquake forecast based on Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LIAC) model, IDRC, Chengdu,, 3 (17 Oct 2014) Pulinets, S., et al. (2014): Physical background for multiparameter approach in earthquake precursors monitoring, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Programme & Short Abstracts, 175 e Sphere Project (2004): Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Disaster Response, Geneva, 344 pages Tohoku University, International Research Institute of Disaster Science (2014): Initial Report of the IRIDeS Fact-finding missions to Philippines, ( ) (16 Oct 2014) UNISDR (2006): Developing Early Warning Systems: A Checklist, ird International Conference on Early Warning, March 2006, 13 pages Usländer, T. (2014): e trend towards the Internet of ings: what does it help in Disaster and Risk Management?, IDRC, DAVOS 2014, Extended Abstracts, 729 Citation Neussner, O. (2015): Early Warning Some Recent Developments. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 24-32, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

39 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Enhancing Public Resilience: A Community Approa LINNELL, Mikael a, JOHANSSON, Catrin b, OLOFSSON, Anna a, WALL, Erika a, and ÖHMAN, Susanna a a Risk and Crisis Research Centre (RCR), Mid Sweden University, Östersund, Sweden, anna.olofsson@miun.se b DEMICOM, Centre for Research on Democracy and Communication, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall, Sweden Abstract e overall aim of the paper is to explore two key areas in crisis management: (a) e role of local communities in crisis preparedness and response, and (b) How to involve the citizens in this task. Specifically we ask: What areas are important to develop in order for public resilience to be enhanced? e study has a broad scope and utilizes a novel design since it takes four stakeholder perspectives into consideration: e perspectives of municipal safety coordinators, members of voluntary organizations, semiorganized individuals, and nonorganized individuals. In total 33 in-depth interviews were undertaken in three different Swedish municiplaities. Seven major themes related to enhanced public resilience were developed in the analytic process: (a) Collaboration: Formal and informal practices, (b) Specific competences and general abilities, (c) Collective efforts and individual self help, (d) Education and empowerment, (e) Traditional communication versus digital media, ( ) Individual motivation and involvement, and (g) Generation and age. From these themes four policy-level recommendations aimed for civil servants and similar public authority representatives. e recommendations consist of four key words, or e four In:s; Inclusive, Interested, Insistent, and Inventive. e study is part of an extensive research project, Public Empowerment Policies for Crisis Management, funded as part of the European Community s Seventh Framework Program. Keywords public empowerment, crisis management, resilience, community, collaboration 1. Introduction Risks, crises, and disasters are prevented and managed by professional crisis managers, authorities and governments. However, as Berger and Neuhaus (1996:152) conclude in their well known book To empower people, individuals and communities, not the state, are best situated to answer how public resilience can be enhanced in order to cope with risks and manage crises and disasters. By turning towards a community approach in which every individual is regarded as an asset with resilience capabilities that can be actively used in a crisis situation, we can be er prepare for and manage different types of crises in the future. is paper reports research on how to empower the public to undertake a more active role during societal crises and emergencies. e overall aim of the paper is to explore two key areas in crisis management: (a) e role of local communities in crisis preparedness and response, and (b) How to involve the citizens in this task. e study has a broad scope and utilizes a novel design since it takes four stakeholder perspectives into consideration: e perspectives of municipal safety coordinators (or similar role), members of voluntary organizations, semi-organized individuals, and non-organized individuals. ese four perspectives are integrated in the study, which is reflected in the selection of informants and in the presentation of results. Our findings result from an extensive research project, Public Empowerment Policies for Crisis Management¹. e background of the present study is a call by the European Council for increased action at Community level to prevent disasters and mitigate their impacts. In response to the call, a Community approach on the prevention of natural and manmade disasters was recently launched. According to the Community approach, awareness raising of the general public can contribute to disaster prevention [COM(2009)82]. Likewise, the European Security Research and Innovation Forum (ESRIF) states that European citizens should be regarded as a decisive and integral ¹ e research project Public Empowerment Policies for Crisis Management has identified best practices for community approaches to crisis resilience and suggested directions for future research and implementation, for more information see. e project has been funded as part of the European Community s Seventh Framework Program (FP7/ ) under grant agreement number

40 34 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 active part in any future crisis management solution. Every individual has his or her own resilience capabilities that need to be enforced and deployed in a crisis situation (ESRIF Final Report 2009:112). European policy on enhancing public resilience thus informs the visions of and actions taken by civic organizations focusing on risk- and crisis management on the local level. e Swedish Civil Defence League, for example, states in an information booklet that the nation presently has a crisis management system in which: Everybody in society should be mentally and practically prepared for unexpected situations that may arise (Swedish Civil Defence League 2004:5). A viable way of moving forward towards increased public engagement in situations of crisis and disaster is thus formally recognizing the value of local volunteer efforts (United Nations 2005). Regulatory frameworks must encourage volunteerism by empowering people with formal roles during and in the a ermath of disasters. 2. Analytical Framework and Previous Resear e analytical framework employed in this research is constructed by a fusion of sociological disaster research and risk perception- and communication theory. Key koncepts within these streams will be adressed in the following sections. As mentioned above, the aim of the study is twofold: First, we explore the role of local communities in crisis preparedness and response, and second, we work out suggestions on how to involve citizens in this task. e two objectives join under the umbrella concept of community approach. In this paper, community approaches refer to ways in which citizens and groups might be included in the management of crises and thus facilitate more effective crisis management. Consequently, community approaches a empt to engage the full capacity of the civil and nonprofit sectors, including voluntary organizations and the general public Prosocial behaviour in disaster Following from the introduction above, the designing of a community approach presuppose that people are prone to display prosocial behavior, that is, they are willing to help one another in situations of crisis and disaster. As noted by Bierhoff (2002), prosocial behavior is embedded in spatial environments and influenced by cultural factors that predict its likelihood on a community level. e community as a unit of analysis thus becomes crucial for understanding citizen involvement in responding to societal needs (Linnell, 2013). Regarding individual- and collective response efforts, it is crucial that we recognize the misconceptions continually reproduced by means of news- and popular media. For example, more than five decades of studying human response to disasters has taught us that people rarely panic or give way to criminal activity. As noted by arantelli (1993:4), Prosocial rather than antisocial behaviour is a dominant characteristic of the emergency time period. If disasters unleash anything, it is not the criminal in us but the altruistic. People are unlikely to cause harm to others as they reach for safety and may even put their own lives at risk to help others (Clarke 2002:21). Accordingly, most citizens respond constructively to various threats by bringing as much information and as many resources as they can to bear on the problem of how to cope with an incident. All in all, behaviour in the disaster response period is generally prosocial as well as rational (Perry & Lindell 2003:50). It is well established that those affected by a disaster o en initiate such activities as emergency first aid, and search and rescue, rather than passively await intervention by governmental authorities. It is also well known that non-victims in the disaster impact area engage in helping behaviour directed at victims (Perry & Lindell 2003:52). However, as noted by arantelli (1993:9), many dedicated volunteers with a wide variety of skills are not necessarily an organizational resource. In fact, arantelli states, in the absence of very good prior planning of who will use volunteers, where they will be sent, how they will be supervised, when they will be used, and so on - in the absence of such detailed planning, the sheer presence of masses of individual volunteers will simply create another disaster related organizational problem. Accordingly, the aim of the present project is to develop strategies for harnessing the willingness to help, but to do so in a systematic manner Framing the community approach A community approach serves the purpose of maintaining and strengthening societal security. Societal security is a much debated concept which has been defined by Burgess (2012:8) as protection from crises caused by intentional and unintentional human acts, natural hazards and technical failures [which] depend heavily on the cultural and even moral facility of people. It also means that society is not just the passive object of security (i.e. that what is to be protected) but also an active producer of security (i.e. that what protects). Accordingly the notions of security and resilience share some basic characteristics. e concept of resilience has been defined in many ways. Aguirre (2006:1) defines resilience as physical, biological, personality, social and cultural systems capability to effectively absorb, respond, and recover from an internally or externally induced set of extraordinary demands. Community resilience, then, entails the ongoing and developing capacity of the community to account for its vulnerabilities and develop capabilities that aid that community (Chandra et al. 2011:9). e Sco ish Government, for example, defines community resilience as communities and individuals harnessing local resources and expertise to help themselves in an emergency, in a way that complements the response of the emergency services (Sco ish Government 2013:4). Twigg (2009) suggests that community resilience should be understood through broad definitions and proposes an application of the concept as the capacity to (a) Anticipate, minimize and absorb potential stresses or destructive forces through adaption or resistance, (b) Manage or maintain certain basic functions and structures dur-

41 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ing disastrous events, and (c) Recover or bounce back after an event (Twigg 2009:8). In a comprehensive literature review on community resilience, Magis (2010:406) concluded that (a) communities can develop resilience strategically via collective action, (b) that community resilience is facilitated through developing and engaging diverse resources from throughout the community, (c) at community members can be active agents in the development of community resilience, and (d) at resilience is developed through engagement of the community s resources, i.e. taking action and not just developing the community s capacity. Consequently, the publics individual and collective efforts to enhance community resilience is understood here as the ambition to maintain and strengthen societal security. Like resilience, the concept of community has been defined in many ways. In this paper the community is seen as a potential producer of security, hence our attention is focused on efforts aimed at enhancing community resilience. ere are different kinds of communities, including communities of place, interest, belief, and circumstance, which can exist both geographically and virtually (e.g. FEMA 2011; UK Cabinet Office 2011, Johansson & Linnell 2012). Communities are innately dynamic: people may join together for common goals and separate again once these have been achieved (Twigg 2009). In conventional emergency management, the concept of community has o en referred to groups of people living in the same area or close to the same risks (Twigg 2009:9; McAslan 2011:6; Sco ish Government 2013:5). is location oriented definition overlooks significant dimensions of community, which are to do with values, activities and structures (Twigg 2009:9). It also ignores the reality that disasters do not respect jurisdictions (NRC 2011:14). Accordingly, for the purpose of working out suggestions on how to enhance public participation in emergency preparedness and response, a broad conceptualization of community will be used which take into account the above definitions Previous research and the specific aim of the present study In previous risk research the heterogeneity of the general public, regarding how people perceive and respond to risks and crises, have been pinpointed. Perception, assessment and knowledge of risks and crises in communities are influenced by individuals relationship with their physical and social environment (Brunsma, Overfelt & Picou 2007). Especially positional factors such as age and gender (see e.g. Olofsson & Rashid 2011; Olofsson & Öhman 2007; Zinn & Pierce 2002), and situational factors such as education, place of residence and having children (see e.g. Slovic 2000; Lindell & Perry 1992; Wall 2014) have been studied. Accordingly, in the preparation phase, before an emergency situation, crisis or disaster, it is important to map different perceptions and opinions in communities and social groups, in order to be prepared to adapt crisis communication to diverse stakeholders during a crisis, when immediate information is needed to avoid severe damage or harm and allow protection (Heath & O Hair 2009). Values of personal responsibility and community involvement need to be included in mitigation strategies. e literature does not go very deep into the mapping of different types of communities or social groups and their preferences concerning spokespersons and message content, which is why this could be further investigated in order to meet the goal of enhancing community resilience. One example is that rural residents might need information that includes not only their own safety but also that of their livestock, which represents important economic and personal value to them. New residents might not be aware of special conditions in the area, warning systems and emergency procedures. For example the risk of natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, hurricanes, and flooding or information and procedures in case of emergency, such as where recommended shelters are situated. Minority communities (such as racial and ethnic communities) are more vulnerable during crises, and display lower trust in authorities and officials (Brunsma, Overfelt & Picou 2007; Olofsson 2007). Some authors in the reviewed literature emphasize that focus should be on people and what people can do, instead of what risks and hazards they might face (Burns & Slovic 2012). A major part of the literature stresses the importance of using pre-existing or established networks (i.e. families, workplaces, associations, organizations, congregations, etc.) when reaching out to people (FEMA 2011; López-Marrero & Tschakert 2011). People prefer to participate in collective efforts through the groups and institutions in which they normally participate, rather than through forms of collaboration created specifically for crisis and disaster management (NRC 2011; Chandra et al. 2010). us, collaboration between different actors should occur prior to an actual event, and the ma er of collaboration does not have to focus on crisis or disaster per se (Schoch-Spana et al. 2007). Many of the existing organizations, groups and networks based on collective needs and interests could be accentuated as potential actors in crisis and disaster preparedness and response. People and networks within specific interest groups or professions with no previous connection to crisis management could be in possession of skills or material resources well needed in crisis and disaster preparedness and response (Aguirre 2006). However, there are still few studies that clarify in depth how community approaches can enhance public empowerment as well as crisis management. A major part of the available literature comes from the US, while contributions from the EU are still modest (Johansson & Linnell 2012). A tentative conclusion, therefore, is that empirical research on how to include the public in collaboration on crisis and emergency management in a European context is needed. e present study was founded on the assumption that the public is neither representing a static nor homogeneous population of individuals. Rather, we need to consider different perspectives depending on previous individual experiences, and success factors, which can be part of the recommendations on how to connect with community needs and how to activate and utilize efforts within

42 36 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 the community. In a wide sense, the objective is to explore the interface between local authorities and voluntary initiatives in order to identify key enablers for enhancing public resilience. In other words, the study is about mapping the state of collaboration between local authorities and the voluntary organized, as well as nonorganized, public. Specifically we ask: What areas are important to develop in order for public resilience to be enhanced? 3. e Swedish Crisis Management Policy Context e authors of the present study found the Swedish crisis management policy context to be particularly suited for this research since national regulations, as will be demonstrated, stress individual responsibility, as well as various forms of collaboration, for preparing and handling societal crises. According to the government bill on societal safety and preparedness (Government bill, 2001/02:158), the Swedish system for crisis management is built on the principles of responsibility, similarity, and proximity. e principle of responsibility states that those who are responsible for an activity during normal conditions are also responsible during an extraordinary event (e.g. health, education, geriatric care, and so on). e principle of similarity states that an activity, as far as possible, should be performed the same way whether during an extraordinary event or during normal conditions. e principle of proximity, finally, states that a crisis ought to be managed where it occurs and by the nearest affected and responsible individuals or organizations. us, primary responsibility for managing a specific crisis is decidedly within the affected local community or municipality. e Act on municipality and county council action before and during extraordinary events (Act, 2006:544) states that local and county councils shall reduce vulnerabilities and cultivate sufficient capacity for handling extraordinary events during peacetime. As local and county council resources are o en very limited, this act provides a good basis for engaging the general public and the voluntary sector in order to coproduce safety and security. e Act on civil protection (Act, 2003:778) states that individuals are primarily responsible for protecting their own life and property. As an individual citizen, you are supposed to be aware of, and prepare for, the fact that accidents and crises might occur and affect your everyday routines. In addition, you are supposed to be aware that societal resources during extraordinary events must be primarily directed to groups incapable of taking care themselves. Finally, you are supposed to provide for your basic needs regarding water, food and shelter, during the first phase of a crisis. Recent government bills have emphasized the necessity of collaboration in order to maintain societal safety. e importance of the voluntary sector in collaborative efforts is emphasized in the government bill on collaboration during crisis (Government bill, 2005/06:133) and the bill on strengthened crisis preparedness (Government bill, 2007/08:92). Accordingly, voluntary engagement is crucial for society s capacity to protect the lives and health of the population, the functionality of society and its ability to maintain basic values (Government bill, 2007/08:92, p. 27). 4. Methodology e following sections will present how informants were identified, how many were interviewed, how the interview guide was developed and tested, it will discuss interview ethics and describe how the interview data were analyzed Locating informants In the Swedish policy context, as can be noted under the acts above (Act, 2006:544; Act, 2003:778), the possibilities for the general public to engage in societal crisis management is manifold. However, what is expressed in governmental policy as preferred ways of functioning is o en a viable starting point for investigation and problematization of actual practices. In the present study we are specifically interested in the involvement of the civil sector during societal crises. We are focusing on the interface between bo om-up approaches of the engaged public, the varying level and activities of organizing crisis preparedness and management, and the top-down approaches of traditional emergency and crisis management professionals. In order to analyse possibilities of increasing public resilience during crises, we performed interviews with municipal safety coordinators and individuals that are organized, semiorganized and nonorganized in respect to organizations volunteering during crises. In total, 33 indepth interviews were undertaken, with representatives of the four social actors at community level: Representatives of local community or municipality level (safety coordinator or similar posts in the municipality); Members of voluntary organizations (dealing with basic forms of societal crisis management, e.g. Civil Defence Organizations); Semiorganized individuals (engaged in nontraditional forms of organization, i.e. networks etc. e.g. Missing People); and Nonorganized individuals (individuals with no known involvement in organized crisis management) A basic criterion when locating informants was that some form of basic organization of voluntary forces was needed, because, as is o en the case, local authorities and municipalities do not collaborate with individual volunteers, but with voluntary organizations. In addition, the fourth category of nonorganized informants was included in order to provide important input on aspects of motivation and potential involvement. In order to obtain maximum variation in our informants views and experiences, participants were recruited from three regions in Sweden, all of them with specific

43 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March demographic and geographic challenges, which can represent not only Sweden and the Nordic countries, but also different other regions throughout Europe: e most southern region of Sweden is rather densely populated and vulnerable due to its flat topography and relative inexperience with extreme winter conditions. e middle area around Stockholm is very densely populated, yet, because of its key position in terms of administrative influence on the rest of the country, collaboration between societal actors in this region is somewhat more professional when compared to the other regions. e sparsely populated northern region of Sweden is characterized by its mountains and its inland climate. Due to extreme atmospheric conditions, especially during the winter, people are relatively experienced in weather-related precautions Interview guide and research ethics e questions constituting the interview guide were developed by the authors. Four sets of partly overlapping guides were gradually developed as to comply with the various categories of interviewees (i.e. municipal safety coordinators, members of voluntary organizations, semiorganized individuals, and nonorganized individuals). e themes covered by the four interviewee categories were basically the same, but the order and formulation of the questions differed slightly. Some examples of crisis preparedness and management themes covered in the guides are (a) Individual responsibility (e.g. to engage, to act, and to be prepared), (b) Preparedness (e.g. education, training and exercises), (c) Collaboration (between the general public, voluntary organizations, and public authorities/local councils), (d) Communication (mainly between voluntary organizations and public authorities/local councils), (e) e role of civil society (e.g. should we expect civil society to be more involved, or involved in alternative ways?), and ( ) real-life experiences (e.g. good and bad examples of collaboration, communication, etc.). e guides were semi-structured, which meant that the interviews were performed as conversations, where the order of questions could change and follow-up questions were posed when the situation so demanded. Safety coordinators working in municipalities in the three regions were contacted and asked if they were interested in participating in an interview study concerning civil involvement in societal crisis management. Representatives of voluntary organizations dealing with societal crisis management (e.g. the Swedish Civil Defence League and the Women s Voluntary Defence Organization) were also contacted and asked to circulate our inquiry in their networks. Gradually, members of different regional and local sections of these organizations contacted the research group and volunteered to participate. All proposals to participate were considered by the researchers in order to reach the goal of maximum variation in order to analyze a number of differing perspectives. Direct inquiries were made to key people dealing with the se ing up, education, and training of Voluntary Resource Groups. Such groups function as a local and regional community resource commissioned by the local municipality. Voluntary Resource Groups are made up of ordinary citizens who want to make a contribution and support their local community when resources are limited. Hence, they are summoned during times of crisis and emergencies to perform specific tasks. ese tasks include for example managing convergence of spontaneous volunteers, securing access to food, water and shelter, and assisting professionals by performing low skill tasks. Education and training is financed by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), while practical activities are operated by the local municipality and the Swedish Civil Defence League. Semiorganized individuals, like members of Missing People network, SMS-lifesavers, and the Voluntary Mountain Rescuers were contacted through spokespeople or contact persons of these networks and associations. e procedure of securing research ethics followed the same steps as described above, that is, the official contact person circulated the inquiry in the network so that only those who wanted to participate replied to the research group. e strategy for locating informants was as a mix of theoretical sampling (Corbin & Strauss 2008), purposive sampling (Jupp 2006), and snowball sampling strategies (Atkinson & Flint 2004). Striving for efficiency, direct contacts were made (when possible) with members and representatives of voluntary organizations in geographical proximity to the local communities where contacts with safety coordinators had already been established Analysis Recorded interviews were transcribed by two hired research assistants. e amount and form of transcription depends on such factors as the nature of the material and the purpose of the investigation (Kvale 2007). In this study, we are primarily interested in factual ma ers, that is, the interview content. We are less focused on the structural, linguistic and interactional aspects of the interview conversation. erefore, recorded interviews were transcribed following the conventions of basic transcription of conversational content. is means that the interviews are transcribed verbatim, from beginning to end. Contextual sounds and occurrences influencing the interviews are briefly described, and pauses and accentuations are noted, while voice quality (e.g. tone and pitch) and dialect are not. e goal of such transcription, as stated by Bloom (1993), is to selectively reduce the data in a way that preserves the possibility of different analyses and interpretations. In other words, the goal is to provide lean transcriptions that allow for rich interpretations (Bloom 1993). Analysis of the transcribed interviews was undertaken in a collective manner by the research group, employing the approach of qualitative content analysis. is approach is generally used to interpret meaning from the content of text based data and, hence, adhere to the naturalistic paradigm (Hsieh & Shannon 2005:1277). A guiding analytical question concerned what factors might enable a community approach in which the general public can

44 38 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 take part in the management of societal crises, and what are the challenges of such an approach? In addition, the analytical work immersed and emphasized three general aspects in the material, namely the organization, communication and motivation underlying and supporting the possible existence of such an approach. e analysis involved what Hsieh and Shannon (2005:1279) refer to as conventional content analysis. Practicing such an analysis means avoiding the use of predetermined categories and instead allowing the categories and names of categories to flow from the data. is procedure is described by Mayring (2000) as inductive category development and it is employed by the analyst in order to allow new insights to emerge. In order to secure intersubjective understanding within the research group, a workshop on text based analysis was arranged. In addition, the researchers took part in each other s respective analysis. Subsequently, parts of the transcribed interviews were translated by the research group, from Swedish to English. Seven major themes were developed in the analytic process. eese are presented in the next section. e presentation of themes below does not adhere to any particular order. Following the presentation of results, the analytical themes are summarized in Table e Major Results A general observation is that the scope and depth of collaboration between public and municipal emergency actors and voluntary organizations differ a lot depending on population density, size of local community and geographical characteristics. ese factors seem to impact the degree of collaboration between professional actors and voluntary organizations, as well as the kind of material resources available. For example, small communities tend to lack resources when it comes to implementation of new communication channels. ere are also more general differences. In the northern region, for example, collaboration in crisis and emergencies seems to a lesser extent to be based on voluntary forces specifically aimed at handling emergencies. In this area voluntary resources are o en based on private-public collaboration, like haulage contractors and leasing companies for snow vehicles etc. e major results show that there are particular areas that are important for enhancing public resilience. ese areas are (in no specific order): (a) Formal and informal practices in collaborative efforts, (b) General abilities and specific competences, (c) Dynamics between collective efforts and individual self help, (d) Aspects of education and empowerment, (e) Traditional communication versus digital media, ( ) Individual motives, and (g) Age and generations (see Table 1). In the following, each theme will be briefly explained. In addition, we identify a number of challenges and opportunities in each area. emes Table 1: Major themes developed in the analysis (a) Collaboration: formal and informal practices (b) Specific competences and general abilities (c) Collective efforts and individual self help (d) Education and empowerment (e) Traditional communication versus digital media ( ) Individual motivation and involvement (g) Generation and age Short description Degree of task formalization between the public and municipal representative Dynamics between public authorities needs and volunteers expectations Primary role of volunteers as resource or burden for professional actors e importance of accessible training in societal emergency preparedness e importance (for all relevant actors) of adapting to the digital landscape Reasons for- and barriers tobecoming part of voluntary crisis management Interviewee reflections on advantages and disadvantages with various ages e theme of formal and informal practices (a) describes the degree of formalization in collaborative efforts between the voluntary public and municipal safety coordinators. Formal and informal ways of collaboration can thus be understood as endpoints on a scale, where most interaction between the municipality and the voluntary public occurs somewhere inbetween. Formal collaboration, in this material, means that the tasks handed over to voluntary groups are predefined and that collaborative efforts between the municipality and the voluntary public are planned, regulated and contractual. For example, one municipal safety coordinator states in the interview: At present they [a Voluntary Resource Group] have received two projects from us to work with. I a ended one of their meetings where we brought up the example of water security. And then they got an assignment to get back to me, at the municipality, and tell me what could be their contribution in this area. (10K:5) e safety coordinator quoted above has made sure to establish a close relationship with a few key persons in his municipality s Voluntary Resource Group. e Resource Group is thus invited to take part in municipal emergency exercises and the members of the group are included on a municipal mailing list pertaining to issues of local community safety and security. However, this positive example of collaboration between municipality and voluntary organization is an exception in the present study. Instead, several safety coordinators in our interview data rely on informal collaboration, which implies that issues of insurance and economic compensation are not solved beforehand and that collaborative efforts are expected to arise ad hoc during a crisis. Specific competences and general abilities (b) describes the dynamics between municipal safety coordinators

45 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March needs and voluntary organizations expectations regarding tasks and assignments that can be managed by others than the municipality itself. Voluntary organizations could adjust their activities to the predefined needs expressed by the safety coordinator while also, by themselves, identify various areas where they could serve as an important resource during times of societal strain. One member of a Voluntary Resource Group, for example, talked about the possibility of such groups to temporarily supplement professional actors in situations of a prolonged crisis: What I talk about here is endurance, not just those rather limited situations like fires and the like, but also completely different situations, when there is a prolonged crisis. ( ) Imagine then if the municipality could supplement with people from the voluntary resource groups, then you would increase endurance within the municipal management, or childcare, or elderly-care. (6F:7) e dynamics between collective efforts and individual self help (c) describes different understandings of what could be the most appropriate and efficient task for the voluntary public to carry out in times of crisis. Collective efforts and individual self help can be understood as endpoints on a scale, where most tasks exercised by voluntary groups occur somewhere in between. at is, during a crisis people tend to both manage themselves in order not to restrain professional crisis managers but also engage in collective efforts in order to facilitate the work of professional actors. For example, one representative of a voluntary organization says the following on the dynamics between individual self help and collective efforts: Primarily you have to make sure to manage yourself as far as possible, and act in a way that doesn t restrain those responsible for managing the crisis or emergency or whatever it could be. en there are always those who, in addition to managing themselves have the capacity to help others, primarily your close family of course, but o en also significantly wider circuits than that. (3F:1) Accordingly, moving from individual self help to collective efforts means directing ones resources as to help not just the people in the immediate vicinity but also to help people you don t know before. Collective efforts are thus performed through various organizational forms, from traditional civil defence organizations to contemporary network organizations like Missing People. Individual self help is o en taught within these organizations as part of general crisis preparedness abilities. One way of elevating the voluntary public to the level of professional actors is to make sure people are educated and properly trained. is theme, here called aspects of education and empowerment (d), highlights interviewe statements in the present material regarding the importance of education and training. Two interviewees, the first a member of a voluntary organization and the second a semiorganized individual, emphasise the individual selfdevelopment, or process of empowerment, made possible through education and training in societal crisis management: You get to learn a lot about your own local community and you get to learn about, well, these practical things, and then also how you approach people in different situations and so on. (1F:3) If I would happen to be on site during a traffic accident or something like that, I would just jump right in because I know what to do, so with this background many of us would surely come forward and help since we have the training. (24S:2) Education in issues concerning societal crisis management is an integral part of most voluntary organizations included in the present material. However, in the interviews we have been specifically a entive to informant accounts regarding alternative and novel ways of conveying information to the voluntary public. We thus return to this issue in the suggestions for further research below. In the following theme, traditional communication versus digital media (e), interviews with safety coordinators, organized volunteers, and semiorganized individuals reflect the transformation process of communication before and during critical events; from traditional communication channels and ways of contact, into the new digital landscape of communication characterized by a multitude of digital communication platforms such as mobile phones, internet web pages, and social media. Interviewees perceptions reflect the dynamic tensions of opportunities and challenges in traditional and new communication forms. Individual motivation for ge ing involved is an essential theme in the material ( ). e interviewees talk about, on the one hand, their own drive to engage in voluntary crisis management and on the other hand, about other people s motives for becoming active. Interviewees stress the difficulty of ge ing formally involved in traditional voluntary organizations. is is partly due to oldfashioned communication pa erns and the interviewees perception of voluntary organizations as beureucratic and unwieldy. e last theme, called generation and age (g), is different compared to the other themes since it reflect discussions about an individual characteristic, namely age. Age is a central theme in the material. When the interviewees, regardless of whether they are civil servants, organized volunteers or nonorganized individuals, talk about age, their choice of words o en highlights age from a functionalist perspective: young people are emphasized as capable and strong while older people are described as no longer in possession of power or influence. Furthermore, young people are described as difficult to reach and involve as volunteers since they are perceived as busy with family and work.

46 40 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Conclusion e aim of this study was to explore the interface between local authorities and voluntary initiatives where the engaged public might be able to support professional actors. Seven major areas have been identified; Collaboration: formal and informal practices, General ability and specific competence, Dynamics between collective efforts and individual self help, Aspects of education and empowerment, Traditional communication versus digital media, Individual motivation and involvement, and Age and generations. In this section we present some concluding thoughts along with suggestions for further research. We then bring this paper to an end with a few policylevel recommendations aimed for civil servants (like municipal safety coordinators) and similar public authority representatives. e idea is that these easy-to-use guidelines will provide an efficient tool in when creating appropriate platforms for interorganizational and intersectorial collaboration. From the perspective of safety coordinators and local authorities, there are some obstacles for developing the public/municipal emergency organization, i.e. voluntary forces are superfluous, and some public/municipal safety coordinators hesitate because organizing the voluntary forces takes too much time and energy. From the perspective of the voluntary sector, many members might be frustrated because of bad communication. Local voluntary organizations need to know what they can do for their community, but the council is o en reluctant to hand out relevant tasks. In order to receive funding, local voluntary organizations are meant to be carrying out regular training exercises according to specific scenarios. Most voluntary organizations express a need to carry out these exercises together with public/municipal safety coordinators and local emergency management actors, but collaborative exercises are, at the time of the study, practically nonexistent. Previous research has shown that people and networks with no professional connection to crisis management can be in possession of skills or other resources needed for societal preparedness and response (Aguirre 2006). However, an important conclusion from our results is that enhasing community resilience is not easily ashieved, and it requires a substaintial amount of resourses in terms of money, time and knowledge from the part of public athorities and responsible organizations. One example is the importance of knowledge about the imperatives of the heterogenity of communities and how physical and social environment as well as positional factors such as age and gender and situational factors such as education, place of residence and having children have on community resilience and vulnerability (cf. Brunsma, Overfelt & Picou 2007; Olofsson & Öhman 2007; Wall 2014). According to existing literature, important partnerships ought to be formed among groups that interact with a given population on a daily basis (Magis 2010; arantelli 1993). Scout troops, sports clubs, home-school organizations and faith-based and disability communities are just a few examples of networks where relationships can be built (FEMA 2011; López-Marrero & Tschakert 2011). us, all members of the community should be part of the emergency management team, including social and community service groups and institutions, faith-based and disability groups, academia, professional associations, and the private and nonprofit sectors. Identifying the critical points of contact for all constituencies in the community makes communication and outreach most effective (NRC 2011; Chandra et al. 2010). Hence, during the preparation phase, public authorities need to map their communities and possible social groups, in order to be prepared to involve volunteers during a crisis (cf. Heath & O Hair 2009). However, as can be discerned in the present study, there is o en a certain gap between normative text (e.g. policy documents, instructions, vision statements, etc.) and descriptive accounts of actual practice. National policy might very well stress the importance of inter-organizational and inter-sectorial collaboration on the local level; however in reality municipal representatives might experience low or even nonexistent incentives for including the (organized) voluntary public in collaborative efforts on societal crisis management. 7. Suggestions for Further Resear e suggestions for future research are structured as to correspond with the presentation of research themes in section 5.1. ence, the first suggestion pertains to formal and informal practices of collaboration: ere is definitely a need for further organizational studies on the intersection between municipals, professionals and the voluntary public. Also, there is a need of developing new forms of common training exercises in ways that are not experienced as burdensome on part of the municipality. Regarding the second theme, specific competences and general abilities, both municipal safety coordinators and members of voluntary organizations express the possibility of, and need for, the voluntary public to be active in a wider spectrum of societal service. For this to work, further investigation ought to be carried out in two areas particularly: On the one hand, the present and potential use of ICT as a tool for recruitment, development and maintenance of the voluntary public, and on the other, the intersection of municipal representatives and the voluntary public. How should an appropriate social platform be designed for these actors to optimize the possible exchange? A suggestion for further research regarding collective efforts and individual self help is to explore the possibilities and develop new ways of converging and integrating basic crisis management and self help in the everyday activities and routines of people. Previous research show that people tend to become involved in already existing and available networks rather than entering into or creating new networks and organizations for the purpose of maintaining societal safety and security. e present study provides no exhaustive description of the present status for educational efforts pertaining to societal crisis management. We thus have some indica-

47 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tions that courses in emergency preparedness and in the Swedish crisis management system are taught within the framework of popular education. We know that emergency preparedness is taught within traditional voluntary organizations, like the Swedish Civil Defence League and the Women s Voluntary Defence Organization. However, these are just fragments in a wider puzzle of educational strategies. erefore, a suggestion for further research is to provide a more complete picture of the educational and empowering efforts presently going on throughout Sweden and in the rest of Europe. Due to the importance of preparing for and supporting public empowerment during crises in order to mitigate severe consequences and increase resilience, we suggest that future research in the field of traditional communication versus digital media should continue to study the communication technology development and its use in crisis communication by non-organized, semi-organized, and organized individuals as well as by public authorities and municipalities. Personal networks are important in crisis communication, and new technology supports personal communication in these networks. New possibilities are created to reach out to, and gather people, as well as disseminate information not only by authorities, but by individuals themselves. For example, groups of individuals can easily self-organize different activities through social media such as Facebook. However, previous research on the different resources and habits of citizens in a heterogeneous society characterized by multi-ethnicity, social and educational gaps and the ability to use new communication technology, shows that municipalities are not fully aware of nor using these new possibilities. Moreover, new and hitherto unknown challenges may arise that demand preparation. It is thus also important to continue to study the role of safety coordinators, who prepare for and manage crisis communication in the digital networked society. Suggestions for further research about individual motivations and involvement include a deeper the understanding of how different organizational forms interact with volunteer involvement. ere is also a need acquire more knowledge about how various degrees of formalization influence on the individual s will to commit to volunteer crisis management. Last we suggest further research into how it is possible to create involvement across generations. e participants, regardless of whether they are professionals or lay people, all agree that it is important to include people of different ages in volunteer crisis management. However, the knowledge about who becomes involved in volunteer crisis management is insufficient; therefore we need statistics on a societal level describing volunteer involvement in various groups in society, not least regarding different age groups. 8. Policy-Level Recommendations e following recommendations have been developed by the authors in response to the challenges and opportunities coming to light during the research project. e recommendations are specifically developed for involving the public in societal crisis management and thus enhance community resilience, and aim to provide easy to use guidelines for crisis managers and other professionals working in local organisations. e guide consist of four key words, or e four In:s; Inclusive, Interested, Insistent, and Inventive. e four In:s are first presented in detail and then summarized in an accessible way Inclusive Following the wide variety of tasks pertaining to societal safety, there are at present great opportunities for converging the various resources and competences. is means that heterogeneity regarding such as gender, age and life stages, education, and socioeconomic status should be understood as an opportunity when it comes to improved crisis management. People do have a drive to participate in voluntary groups, however the lack of common exercises complicate the relation between the municipal authority and the voluntary organization. Hence a major opportunity for municipal safety coordinators and similar posts would be to start recognizing this and include the organized voluntary public in preparedness exercises programmes. e rapid technology development also brings new means to include and communicate with various publics and communication networks. However, not all citizens use new digital media, and thus, gaps in knowledge may emerge in a case of crisis. erefore, it is important to adapt crisis communication according to diverse needs and preferences in order to include different groups, such as young, elderly, natives, immigrants, urban and rural inhabitants Interested Municipal representatives along with other local authorities and professionals (e.g. police, rescue services and medical care) are in position of, and would certainly benefit from, reinforcing people s feeling of belonging and thereby boosting the collective responsibility for societal safety and security. On the part of municipal safety coordinators, this could be done by inviting and visiting community groups to inform about the specific needs and vulnerabilities within the local community or jurisdiction. Enduring relations could be maintained through well considered use of social media and other ICT tools. Furthermore, by focusing on already existing volunteer groups and non governmental organizations (NGOs) in the community it is easy to locate volunteers interested in crisis management. By connecting to existing associations of people, one can also motivate these people to engage in volunteer crisis management Insistent Both municipal safety coordinators and voluntary groups benefit from building long term connections instead of merely assuming that the crisis situation itself will somehow provoke collaborative efforts to emerge. Collabora-

48 42 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 tive efforts are all too o en centred on specific issues and thereby restricted in terms of time. Preferably collaboration should occur in a long term perspective and involve a variety of tasks. As stated above, for the actors to stay connected and updated, an increased and well considered use of appropriate social media and other ICT tools could be further stimulated. Further, it is important to involve children and young people in volunteer crisis management to ensure continuous relations between the municipality and the public Inventive Collaborative efforts o en occur outside the narrow frame of traditional voluntary organizations. For example, formal contracts might hinder people to engage in volunteer crisis management. However, the growing number of network organizations, supported by social media and other ICT tools, brings opportunities to transform bureaucratic and time consuming forms of collaboration to something that be er fits present forms of voluntary involvement. In addition, new ways of securing the right knowledge, skills and competences need to be developed. is means, firstly, that the threshold for voluntary individuals to become engaged needs to be lowered and secondly, that the distribution of interests, skills, resources and competencies among voluntary individuals need to be documented in an accessible yet ethically tenable way. One way for the municipal safety coordinator (or similar) to single out key individuals is to include different voluntary groups in preparedness exercises and training activities. Moreover, recruitment efforts need to be expanded. Examples of possible arenas and institutions for recruitment are the popular adult education, employment services, upper secondary schools, public buildings like town halls, libraries, and exhibition halls, education for immigrants and recent citizens, sports clubs, religious congregations, interest based and cultural associations, and workplaces. e power of grassroots initiatives, community innovation and creative improvisation thus must be facilitated by organized government agencies (e.g. Benne 2012; Clarke 2006) Summing up the four In s Inclusive ink of community groups and citizens as a resource and act accordingly. Recognize heterogeneity within community groups as an asset. Create social spaces for collaboration and initiate common exercises. Interested Invite and visit community groups in order to inform about local risks and vulnerabilities. Use ICT and social media interactively, responding to people s inquiries, needs, and ideas. Let volunteers know you need them and expect their participation during common exercises. Insistent Expect from collaborative partners to be knowledgeable of relevant policy. Facilitate formalized structures of collaboration without specifying the tasks in detail. Aim at building long term relations with key people in organizations and community groups. Inventive Be creative and explorative in using ICT and social media to connect with citizens and groups. Be creative in finding and utilizing new arenas for recruiting citizens and groups. Make it easy for people to engage spontaneously in crisis management on short time contracts. References Act (2003:778): Act on civil protection. Government of Sweden. Retrievable in Swedish from. Act (2006:544): Act on municipal and county council measures prior to and during extraordinary events. Government of Sweden. Retrievable in Swedish from. Aguirre, B.E. (2006): On the Concept of Resilience, Preliminary Paper Nr Disaster Research Center (DRC), University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, USA. Atkinson, R. & Flint, J. (2004): Snowball sampling, in Lewis-Beck, M.S., Bryman, A. & Futing Liao, T. (eds.), e SAGE encyclopedia of social science research methods, ousand Oaks, CA, USA: SAGE Publications Inc. Benne, S. (2012): Innovative inking in Risk, Crisis, and Disaster Management. Franham, England: Gower Publishing Limited. Berger, P. & Neuhaus, R.J. (1996): To empower people. From state to civil society. Second edition, Washington D. C., USA: e American Enterprise Institute (AEI) Press. Bierhoff, H.W. (2002): ). Prosocial behaviour, East Sussex, UK: Psychology Press. Bloom, L. (1993): Transcription and coding for child language research: the parts are more than the whole, in Edwards, J. A. & Lampert, M. (eds.) Talking data: transcription and coding in discourse research, Hillsdale, NJ, USA: Lawrence Erlbaum. Brunsma, D.L., Overfelt, D. & Picou, S.J. (2007): e sociology of Katrina. Perspectives on a modern catastrophe, Lanham, Maryland, USA: Rowman & Li lefield Publishers. Burgess, J.P. (2012): Annex A Conceptual considerations for the ETTIS project J. Peter Burgess Contribution, in D.1.2. A working definition of societal security. European Security Trends and reats in Society (ETTIS). Peace Research Insti-

49 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tute Oslo (PRIO), European Community, Seventh Framework Programme. Retrievable from. Chandra, A. et al. (2010): Understanding community resilience in the context of national health security. A literature review, Working Paper prepared for the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, RAND Corporation. Retrievable from. Chandra et al. (2011): Building Community Resilience to Disasters. A Way Forward to Enhance National Health Security, Technical Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, RAND Corporation. Retrievable from. Clarke, L. (2002): Panic Myth or reality?, Contexts, 1(3): Clarke, L. (2006): Worst cases. Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination, Chicago, USA: University of Chicago Press. COM(2009)82: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Commi ee of the Regions, A Community approach on the prevention of natural and man-made disasters, Commission of the European Communities. Retrievable from. Corbin, J. & Strauss, A. (2008): Basics of qualitative research (3rd ed.): Techniques and procedures for developing Grounded eory. ousand Oaks, CA, USA: SAGE Publications. ESRIF Final Report (2009): European Security Research & Innovation Forum (ESRIF). Retrievable from. FEMA (2011): A Whole Community Approach to Emergency Management: Principles, emes, and Pathways for Action, Federal Emergency Management Agency, FDOC Retrievable from:. Government bill (2001/02:158): Government bill on society s safety and preparedness, Government of Sweden. Retrievable in Swedish from the Ministry of Defence Web site,. Government bill (2005/06:133): Government bill on cooperation during crisis, Government of Sweden. Retrievable in Swedish from the Ministry of Defence Web site,. Government bill (2007/08:92): Government bill on reinforced emergency preparedness: For safety s sake, Government of Sweden. Retrievable in Swedish from the Ministry of Defence Web site,. Heath, R.L. & O Hair, D.H. (eds.) (2009) Handbook of risk and crisis communication, New York, USA: Routledge. Hsieh, H-F. & Shannon, S. (2005): ree approaches to qualitative content analysis alitative Health Research, 15(9): Johansson, C. & Linnell, M. (2012): A literature review on community approaches that involve the public in crisis management Fostering community resilience through coproduction by response organisations and citizens, Report prepared for the research project Public Empowerment Policies for Crisis Management (FP ). Retrivable from:. Jupp, V. (2006): Purposive sampling, e SAGE dictionary of social research methods, ousand Oaks, CA, USA: SAGE Publications Inc. Kvale, S. (2007): Doing Interviews, ousand Oaks, CA, USA: SAGE Publications Inc. Lindell, M. & Perry, R. (1992): Behavioural foundations of community emergency planning, Washington, USA: Hemisphere Publishing Corporation. Linnell (2013): Community approaches involving the public in crisis management. A literature review. Risk and Crisis Research Centre (RCR) Working Paper Series 5, Mid Sweden University, Östersund, Sweden. López-Marrero, T. & Tschakert, P. (2011): From theory to practice: building more resilient communities in flood-prone areas, Environment and Urbanization, 23(1): Magis, K. (2010): Community resilience: an indicator of social sustainability, Society & Natural Resources: An International Journal, 5(23): McAslan, A. (2011): Community resilience: Understanding the concept and its application. A discussion paper prepared for the Torrens Resilience Institute, Adelaide, Australia. Retrievable from. Mayring, P. (2000): alitative content analysis, Forum: alitative Social Research, 1(2): article 20 NRC (2011): Building community resilience through private-public collaboration, National Research Council (NRC), Washington, USA: National Academies Press. Olofsson, A. (2007): Kriskommunikation i e heterogent samhälle lika ör alla eller till var och en e er behov? Sociologisk forskning, 44(3): Olofsson, A. & Öhman, S. (2007): Views of risk in Sweden: Global fatalism and local control An empirical investigation of Ulrich Beck s theory of new risks, Journal of Risk Research, 10(2): Olofsson, A. & Rashid, S. (2011): e White (Male) Effect and Risk Perceptions: Can Equality Make a Difference? Risk Analysis, 31(6): Perry, R. & Lindell, M. (2003): Understanding citizen response to disasters with implications for terrorism, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 11(2):

50 44 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 arantelli, E. (1993): Human and group behavior in the emergency period of disasters: Now and in the future, Preliminary Paper Nr Disaster Research Center (DRC), University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, USA. Schoch-Spana, M., Franco, C., Nuzzo, J.B. & Usenza, C. (2007): Community Engagement: Leadership Tool For Catastrophic Health Events, Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefence Strategy, Practice, and Science, 5(1): Sco ish Government (2013): Building community resilience. Sco ish guidance on community resilience, Government of Scotland. Retrievable from. Slovic, P. (2000): e perception of risk, London, UK: Earthscan. Swedish Civil Defence League (2004): e best knowledge of how to cope in vulnerable situations, Civil örsvars örbundet (Civil Defence League), Solna, Sweden. Twigg, J. (2009): Characteristics of a disaster-resilient community: A guidance note. Version 2, November Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, University College London, London, UK. Retrievable from. United Nations (2005): Disaster Risk Reduction, Governance and Volunteerism, UN Volunteers and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Policy Paper prepared for the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. Retrievable from. Wall, E. (2014): Individuals interest in preventing everyday accidents and crises: a Swedish explorative study of the importance of motivation, Human Technology. An Interdisciplinary Journal on Humans in ICT Environments, (in press). Zinn, H. & Pierce, C. (2002): Values, gender, and concern about potentially dangerous wildlife, Environment & Behavior, 34(2): Citation Linnell, M., Johansson, C., Olofsson, A., Wall, E. and Öhman, S. (2015): Enhancing Public Resilience: A Community Approach. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 33-44, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos. UK Cabinet Office (2011): Strategic national framework on community resilience, United Kingdom. Retrievable from.

51 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Vegetation Fires and Global Change Challenges for Concerted International Action A White Paper directed to the United Nations and International Organizations White Paper Science Team a a e 57 contributing authors are listed in the acknowledgements. Contact: Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC), Freiburg, Germany, fire@fire.uni-freiburg.de Abstract e White Paper Vegetation Fires and Global Change is a global state-of-the-art analysis of the role of vegetation fires in the Earth System and is published as a collective endeavor of 57 of the world s most renowned scientists and research groups working in fire science, ecology, atmospheric chemistry, remote sensing and climate change modeling. e aim of the White Paper is to support the endeavor of the United Nations and its affiliated processes and networks, notably the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the Hyogo Framework for Action Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters and the Global Wildland Fire Network, to address global vegetation fires for the benefit of the global environment and humanity. Keywords fire ecology, fire management, fire and climate change, global change, integrated wildfire disaster risk management, fire management policies, international cooperation if fire management. 1. Introduction In 1992 the first global scientific analysis Fire in the environment: e ecological, atmospheric and climatic importance of vegetation fires was published as the output of a Dahlem Workshop held in Berlin, Germany. e goal of the Dahlem Workshop was to examine the role and impact of natural and anthropogenic fires on ecosystems, the atmosphere and climate (Crutzen and Goldammer, 1993). e scientists contributing to the Dahlem Workshop aimed to inspire the wider scientific community to further explore the gaps of knowledge in the manifold interactions between fire and the natural and cultural environment, as well as the implications and impacts fire has on Earth System processes (Crutzen and Goldamme r, 1993). In the subsequent years wildland fire science and related disciplines experienced rapid acceleration in sectoral and interdisciplinary research projects and programs. e Biomass Burning Experiment: Impact of Fire on the Atmosphere and Biosphere (BIBEX), set up under the umbrella of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and its International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) project, was a pioneering vehicle in the cooperative and collective scientific endeavor to address complex fire-related issues of regional, transcontinental and global scales (Andreae, 1992; Lindesay et al., 1996).¹ During the 1980s and 1990s wildfire episodes with severe environmental and humanitarian consequences were increasingly experienced across the world, e.g. in temperate-boreal Central and East Asia (China, Soviet Union) in 1987 (Goldammer, 1993; 2006b), or in South East Asia (Indonesia) between 1983 and 1998 (Goldammer, 2006a). In response, the Fire Ecology Research Group, which had been founded at Freiburg University (Germany) in 1979 and transited to the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (Germany) in 1990, began to further promote transfer of scientific insights in the world of fire to policy and decision makers internationally. e Fire Ecology Research Group recognized the need to foster the international dialogue and scientific and user-oriented outreach work in fire management, and has labored to- ¹See also the Special Issue of Journal of Geophysical Research Southern Tropical Atlantic Regional Experiment (STARE): Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic (TRACE-A) and Southern African Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI) (JGR, 1996) and the BIBEX website: ² and

52 46 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 ward this ideal since taking over the leadership of the UN- ECE/FAO Team of Specialists on Forest Fire². In 1998 the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) was founded and assumed operation at the interface of fire science and the user community.³ From the outset, the GFMC was positioned under the auspices of the United Nations International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) in the 1990s. A er the phase-out of the IDNDR, its successor arrangement, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), and the Hyogo Framework for Action Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters became the international structures under which the GFMC facilitated the creation of the Global Wildland Fire Network⁴ and an advisory body to the United Nations the UNISDR Wildland Fire Advisory Group.⁵ ese groups and networks have played key roles in organizing a series of international conferences since the late 1980s which have developed, besides general policy recommendations, a number of concrete but informal and voluntary frameworks for enhancing international cooperation in forest fire management, notably at the International Wildland Fire Summit (Australia, 2003)⁶ and the 4th and 5th International Wildland Fire Conferences⁷. ese informal and voluntary networks and frameworks are well known and accepted within the community of fire experts collaborating regionally and globally. e aim of the White Paper, edited by Goldammer (2013), published by the GFMC and summarized within the UK Government s Foresight Project Migration and Global Environmental Change (Goldammer and Stocks, 2011) is to support the endeavor of the United Nations and its affiliated processes and networks, notably the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), the Hyogo Framework for Action Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters and the Global Wildland Fire Network, to address global vegetation fires for the benefit of the global environment and humanity. e White Paper has been commissioned by the UNISDR Wildland Fire Advisory Group through its Secretariat, the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC), Associate Institute of the United Nations University and Secretariat of the Global Wildland Fire Network. e aim of this paper is to provide a summary of the main findings and conclusions of the White Paper, allowing scientists and policy makers to access and understand the complex inter-relationships between fire, humans and the Earth system, and to interpret the findings in the context of cross-disciplinary approaches in disaster risk reduction. Ultimately the essence of the White Paper, which had been presented at the 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2014, shall be conveyed to the ird UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction as part of the collective messages of IDRC Global Fire History and Context With the arrival of the Pleistocene, humans gained the ability to ignite and manipulate fire, and have maintained a monopoly over fire since that time, carrying and spreading it everywhere on planet Earth (Pyne, 1995). Fire foraging, fire hunting, pastoral burning, and slash and burn agriculture are examples of fire practices that emulate natural precedents. Human use of fire has evolved from control over ignition to include control over fuels and, in the last 150 years, the substitution of fossil fuels for biomass fuels. With the arrival of humanity itself as a fire creature, it is now difficult in many ecosystems to separate the natural role of fire from that influenced by humans. Documentary-based fire histories and paleoecological reconstructions from tree rings and charcoal in sediments confirm that fires have been a natural disturbance in nearly all terrestrial ecosystems since prehistoric times. Fire history information is necessary to understand the suite of natural and human drivers that have shaped vegetation fires in the past, as well as the degree to which current fire regimes are being altered by climate and landuse change (Lavorel et al., 2007). rough recent advances in paleo fire research, reconstruction of past fire occurrence at regional, continental and global scales is now possible (e.g. Power et al., 2008; Swetnam and Anderson, 2008). Currently, fire is a very important disturbance in global vegetation cover worldwide, affecting ecosystems that are adapted to, tolerant of, dependent on or susceptible to either natural or human-caused fires. Chuvieco et al. (2008) found that more than 30% of the global land surface has a significant fire frequency. An accurate assessment of the total global area affected by different fire regimes is difficult to determine, and not available at this time. Some estimates have fires affecting between 3 and 4 million square kilometers ( x 10 6 ha) annually (cf. various sources quoted in this volume), while others have estimated the total annual global area burned at more than 6 x 10 6 ha (Mouillot and Field, 2005). In many ecosystems across the world fire is a natural and essential force in maintaining ecosystem structure and productivity. In other regions fire is an important land management tool embedded in the culture of many societies in the developing world (e.g. Africa). Fire is also uncommon and unnatural in many ecosystems (e.g. tropical rain forests), where its current application is causing widespread vegetation damage and site degradation. Many societal and economic issues are driving the increasing impacts of wildland fire globally, and an awareness of these relationships is essential in order to fully understand future adaptation and management options. Vegetation fires are a significant source of atmospheric pollutants, affecting air quality and human health at local to regional scales, especially over the tropical con- ³ ⁴ ⁵ ⁶ ⁷ and

53 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tinents, but also over temperate and boreal zones (Andreae and Merlet, 2001). Smoke aerosols perturb regional and global radiation budgets through their lightsca ering effects and influences on cloud microphysical processes (e.g. Andreae et al., 2004). For some atmospheric pollutants, vegetation fires rival fossil fuel use as a source of atmospheric pollution (Crutzen and Andreae, 1990). At the global scale, fire frequency, fire intensity and emissions from biomass burning are strongly sensitive to climate and to land use (Mouillot and Field, 2005; Schultz et al., 2008; van der Werf et al., 2010). Over the last century, global trends in burned area have been shown to be driven by changes in land use, principally through (i) fire suppression policies in mid-latitude temperate regions, which reduce fire activity in the short term but may lead to a greater incidence of catastrophic fire in the long term (Li ell et al., 2009) and (ii) increased use of fire to clear forest in tropical regions (Cochrane, 2003; Spessa et al., 2010). Several climate model-based studies indicate that future fire activity is likely to increase markedly across much, but not all, of the globe, including most tropical biomes, Mediterranean climate areas, temperate biomes and the boreal zone (Cardoso et al., 2003; Flannigan et al., 2005, 2009a; Scholze et al., 2006; Marlon et al., 2008; Liu et al., 2010; Pechony and Shindell, 2010). e principal driver of this increase generally appears to be a combination of reduced rainfall and/or higher temperatures (which lead to drier fuels through increased evaporation). is is supported by a recent review of the future extent and severity of droughts as predicted by IPCC 4th Assessment report climate models (Dai, 2011). Nonetheless, considerable uncertainty exists in exactly where and how much fire activity will change in future due to the wide range of possible future climates predicted by climate models (Flannigan et al., 2009b; Krawchuk et al., 2009). Furthermore, the role of future vegetation changes and future land-use practices in influencing future fire remain comparatively unexplored. is is important because while climate model-based studies of future fire can help us quantify future fire risk, future prediction of burnt area, fire intensity and emissions from wild fires requires a process-based understanding of and modeling approach that seeks to capture the three main precursors to fire, viz. an ignition source, ample fuel and suitably dry fuel (Pyne et al., 1996). Severe fire incidents have been increasing in recent years in many parts of the world, raising both public and political awareness of a growing and dangerous trend. is awareness was galvanized during numerous catastrophic wildland-urban interface fire events in the western USA over the past decade. Most recently, the 2007 fires in Greece, the 2009 Black Saturday fires in Australia and the 2010 fires in Western Russia, which resulted in the significant loss of lives, infrastructure and property, have brought home the message that societies globally are becoming more vulnerable to fire and fire events more severe, damaging and deadly. 3. Regional Fire Summaries 3.1. Fires in Boreal North America e boreal zone stretches in two broad transcontinental bands across Eurasia and North America, covering approximately 20 x 10 6 ha. Forest fire is the dominant disturbance regime in boreal forests, and is the primary process which organizes the physical and biological a ributes of the boreal biome over most of its range, shaping landscape diversity and influencing energy flows and biogeochemical cycles, particularly the global carbon cycle since the last Ice Age (Weber and Flannigan, 1997). e physiognomy of the boreal forest is therefore largely dependent, at any given time, on the frequency, size and severity of forest fires. e result is a classic example of a firedependent ecosystem, capable, during periods of extreme fire weather, of sustaining the very large, high-intensity wildfires which are responsible for its existence. On average, boreal forest fires burn over between 5 and 20 x 10 6 ha annually, almost exclusively in Canada, Alaska and Russia, as fire is not a dominant disturbance regime in the Nordic Countries. e annual area burned in these regions is highly episodic, with inter-annual variability o en exceeding an order of magnitude, e.g. from less than 0.3 x 10 6 ha to more than 7.5 x 10 6 ha in Canada. Over the past four decades, annual area burned has averaged 2.2 x 10 6 ha for Canada (Martinez et al., 2006) and 0.4 x 10 6 ha for Alaska (Kasischke and Stocks, 2000). In addition, large areas in northern Canada and Alaska receive a modified level of fire protection, as values at-risk do not warrant intensive suppression efforts. In these regions fires are most o en allowed to burn freely, fulfilling a natural role in maintaining boreal ecosystem integrity. Close to 50% of the average area burned in Canada is the result of fires receiving a modified suppression response (Stocks et al., 2003). Rising fire management costs in the boreal zone in recent years are the result of more extreme fire weather, more expensive equipment and expanding use of the forest. e rate of both ongoing and future climate change is expected to be most significant at northern latitudes, and numerous studies project an increase in fire danger conditions and impacts (fire frequency, area burned, fire severity) across the boreal zone (e.g. Stocks et al., 1998; Flannigan et al., 2005, 2009a; Soja et al., 2007). Fire is also a major driver of the forest carbon budget in boreal countries (e.g. Kurz et al., 1995, 2008), making future climate change-driven fire regimes a major concern. Boreal fires have an immediate effect on the surface energy and water budget by drastically altering the surface albedo, roughness, infiltration rates and moisture absorption capacity in organic soils, and in permafrost areas these effects become part of a process of long-term cumulative impacts and slow recovery. With the removal of the insulating organic layer, permafrost thaws, creating instability in soils. Repeated severe fires, coupled with permafrost degradation will lead to large-scale ecosystem changes. e boreal permafrost biome is warming very rapidly (ACIA, 2005), and annual area burned in this re-

54 48 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 gion increasing (Kasischke and Turetsky, 2006). is is leading to further permafrost degradation and a growing concern over positive feedbacks to climate resulting from increased CO2 and methane emissions from permafrost thawing and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (Hinzman et al., 2003). It has also been suggested that the net effect of fires may not result in a positive feedback to climate when the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition and changes in albedo are taken into account over a longer time period (Randerson et al., 2006). e development of large and sophisticated fire management programs aimed at protecting human and forest values from unwanted fire has been largely successful in the North American boreal zone over the past century. However, frequent periods of extreme fire danger, coupled with multiple ignition sources, o en overwhelm suppression efforts and large areas burn. In addition, recent evaluations (CCFM, 2005) reveal a growing awareness that the current levels of fire management success will not be sustainable under projected future fire regimes influenced by climate change, forest health and productivity issues, an expanding wildland-urban interface, and aging fire management personnel and infrastructure Fires in Temperate-Boreal Eurasia In temperate-boreal Eurasia the Russian Federation is responsible for the largest share of forest land about 20% of the global total forested area (FAO, 2006). Russia s fire statistics were largely unreliable before the mid-1990s, but since that time area burned statistics have averaged 6-7 x 10 6 ha of forested land annually (Stocks et al., 2001; Goldammer, 2006b). Within the framework of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), Russia maintained a very large and effective forest fire suppression capability, but this has largely disappeared due to economic difficulties following the collapse of the Soviet Union. While Russia has enormous natural resourcebased wealth, very li le of this is being used to promote or encourage sustainability. As a result, wildland fires annually burn over extremely large areas, particularly in Siberia, where illegal logging and an underfunded fire management program fuel largely uncontrolled fires. ese systemic problems, as much as the extreme heat wave and drought, contributed greatly to the inability of Russia to cope with the disastrous fires of 2010 and the most disastrous fire season of e majority of wildfires occurring in the Central Asian and Far East regions of the Russian Federation burn in remote natural forests and other vegetated lands. e Western Eurasian region, however, has largely been transformed by cultural and industrial activities. us, risk and hazards of wildfires and their environmental and humanitarian impacts are influenced by current land use and inherited residuals of anthropogenic activities, e.g. drained peat bogs and wetlands, soils and vegetation contaminated by urban and industrial waste, chemical deposits, radioactivity and remnants of armed conflicts. At the same time the vulnerability of urban and rural societies is increasing at the interface between urban fringes, both by direct impacts, such as destruction of infrastructure and private property, and by indirect effects such as smoke pollution impacting human health and mortality (Goldammer, 2011) Fires in the Mediterranean Region On average fires annually burn nearly 0.5 x 10 6 ha of vegetated lands in the countries of southern Europe bordering the Mediterranean Sea. Approximately 95% of fires are human caused, the result of both accidents and arson, with a small percentage of fires growing large and accounting for most of the area burned (European Commission, 2010). Despite the scientific progress in exploring and promoting integrated fire management, including the use of prescribed fire in wildfire hazard reduction (Silva et al., 2010), fire policies in this region still advocate total fire exclusion, with fires being a acked and suppressed as quickly as possible. Firefighting capacity is extensive and costly, with expenditures in prevention and suppression amounting to more than 2.5 billion annually. Despite these capabilities, fire impacts in this region are among the most severe in the world. Human use of fire in this region dates back years, and fire history studies have shown that fire return intervals were years during the Late aternary, decreasing to 150 years during the warmer and drier Holocene (Carrion et al., 2003). As populations grew and land management (grazing, ploughing and coppicing) expanded, fire frequencies increased accordingly, and until the mid-twentieth century land occupancy and cultivation remained high, with vegetation composition reflecting the legacy of extensive land use over centuries. e last half of the twentieth century, however, saw changing lifestyles across all southern European countries, with traditional land use largely abandoned, primarily through a rural exodus to urban areas along with mechanization of agriculture and afforestation. is resulted in increased wooded areas, with tree and shrub encroachment on abandoned lands. Landscapes became more homogeneous, facilitating fire spread (Viedma et al., 2009). e number of fires and area burned increased significantly until the end of the 1980s, reflecting increases in fuel accumulation (Rego, 1992) more than a climate effect (Moreno et al., 1998). While fire trends among countries are very variable, more recently, overall fire number and area burned have been decreasing. Mean fire size has also been decreasing, which probably reflects increased fire-fighting capacity and awareness (European Commission, 2010). Nevertheless, the variability in area burned among years is very high, and, for some countries, some of the most catastrophic years have occurred during the last decade. is reflects the importance of meteorological and climate conditions on fire activity in this part of the world, despite increased firefighting capacity.

55 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Fires in Australia e vast majority of the area burned by fire occurs in the tropical savannas of northern Australia, where fire is natural and largely unsuppressed. Area burned is therefore not a reliable indicator of the severity of a fire season in Australia. Much more relevant are the number and severity of fires that burn in and near the heavily populated Australia coastline from eensland south and west to Perth in West Australia. With Australian wildlands well adapted to fire, land management agencies have, for many decades, used prescribed burning extensively to reduce understory and surface fuels accumulation and promote patchiness, in order to prevent catastrophic high-intensity uncontrollable wildfires. While this practice is still in use, particularly in West Australia, there has been a strong trend towards a fire management approach that emphasizes early detection and aggressive suppression of fires. is has required large investments in aerial and ground firefighting equipment, and the creation of agencies with a mandate of emergency response rather than land management (ICLR, 2009). e fire suppression model has been growing in popularity, both publicly and politically. Most current Australian residents, including many in the expanding WUI areas of Australia, do not understand the value of firemaintained land and increasingly believe in centralized fire prevention and control. is, in a sense, transfers an urban philosophy to the wildlands and the WUI, as people increasingly move from cities to the rural landscape, and increases demands for government protection. Litigation is also on the rise. In recent decades, major fires in southern Australia have caused enormous loss of lives and property. Most recent examples are the 1983 Ash Wednesday fires in southeastern Australia (75 lives and 2500 homes lost), the 2003 Canberra fires (four lives and 500 homes lost) and the 2009 Black Saturday Fires in Victoria, which claimed 173 lives, destroyed over 2000 homes and burned over hectares (Rees, 2009). ese devastating fires have exposed the dangers of building homes in landscapes dominated by extremely flammable fuels in a region with arguably the most extreme fire weather and fire danger conditions on Earth. ey have also reignited the debate over fire management approaches in Australia. Major Coronial inquiries and Royal Commissions a er these fires indicate that public scrutiny of, and involvement in, fire management policy is increasing (ICLR, 2009; Royal Bushfire Commission, 2010). Climate change projections for Australia generally show increases in fire danger conditions over most of the country, largely driven by increases in temperature and decreases in relative humidity (Williams et al., 2001; Pitman et al., 2007), with more frequent periods of extreme fire weather (Lucas et al., 2007). e impact of climate change on fuels is more complicated, with drier conditions generally decreasing fuel moisture in forested areas, while inhibiting growth in grasslands that rely on biomass accumulation to promote higher-intensity fires (Williams et al., 2009). Climate change-driven shorter fire return intervals and higher fire intensities are also anticipated to have effects on biodiversity, particularly in temperate biomes dominated by sclerophyllous vegetation (Williams et al., 2009) Fires in the United States Organized fire protection in the USA began in the early 1900s, largely driven by two factors: a legacy from European forestry that fires had no part in forest management and should be eliminated, and a growing number of large conflagrations in the western USA that galvanized public and political concerns. e result was a fire suppression policy aimed at fire exclusion. is policy of general fire exclusion was very successful, although very costly, as annual area burned declined from an average of x 10 6 ha in the early 1930s to 1-2 x 10 6 ha by the 1970s, largely as previously unprotected areas were brought under protection. However, by the mid-1970s concerns were being raised over constantly growing fire expenditures and the legacy of excluding fires in forests where they were normally a natural ecological force. At this time federal agencies relaxed the fire exclusion policy to allow more natural and prescribed fire. However, several decades of widespread fire exclusion had created extensive landscapes of over-mature and decadent forests with significant fuel accumulation issues, particularly in the western USA (Schoennagel et al., 2004). Large, uncontrollable fires returned to this region, beginning in the late 1980s and continuing to the present time, fuelled by widespread drought in combination with heavy fuel accumulations. e lesson learned was that a fire exclusion policy may delay large fires for a period of time, but it would not eliminate them. e last decade has seen a dramatic rise in area burned (annual average 7 8 x 10 6 ha) and the number of large fires (>20000 ha) across the western USA. Fire costs are also continuing to rise dramatically (with federal agency costs averaging $1.5 billion annually since 2000), driven by an increasing number of high-cost WUI fires, particularly in the highly populated areas of southern California (e.g. 0.3 x 10 6 ha, 22 fatalities, 3500 homes destroyed and property losses of $3.5 billion in 2003) (González-Cabán, 2008). During the period federal suppression costs totaled more than $13.1 billion (González-Cabán, 2008) with the number of fire exceeding $10 million increasing from 6 in FY to 32 in FY 2008 (QFR, 2009). Growth of the WUI is a significant driver of the US fire programme (31% of US homes are now reported to be in the WUI) and programme emphasis has shi ed from resource management to fuels management in the WUI. In % of the US Forest Service budget was associated with fire management, and this had increased to 48% by 2008 (ICLR, 2009). Many of the shrubland ecosystems in southern California are exposed to extreme fire weather events in which fire suppression activities are largely ineffective (Moritz et al., 2004). is raises the issue of whether further WUI expansion in these areas is prudent, but this is unlikely to stop the process. With future fire

56 50 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 danger conditions likely to be more severe, citizens in the WUI will face an increasing need to adopt communitybased proactive measures to reduce fire impacts (Moritz and Stephens, 2008). Climate change projections indicate increasing lightning-caused fire occurrence in the western US (Price and Rind, 1994), along with increases in area burned (e.g. Bachelet et al., 2005; Lenihan et al., 2008). Fire season length was found to have increased substantially during the 1980s in the western USA, due to earlier snowmelt and higher spring/summer temperatures (Westerling et al., 2006). Along with climate change impacts, future changes in fire-related policy, including WUI development, wilderness fire management options, and a growing public awareness of fire risk will also influence future fire regimes (Moritz and Stephens, 2008). e fire historian Pyne (2010) argues that America does not have a fire problem: it has many fire problems, each requiring particular, distinctive responses. He suggests mixing and matching four approaches: le ing fire burn naturally as much as possible, excluding fire through aggressive prevention and suppression, practicing widespread prescribed fire, and redesigning landscapes to control fire behavior Fires in Tropical South America the Amazon Region e land cover of tropical South America is dominated by the Amazon, the world s largest formation of tropical forests, which play a vital role in maintenance of biodiversity, water and carbon cycles, as well as regional and global climate (e.g. Houghton et al., 2000). In recent decades these forests have become a global focus, as fire has been used to clear forests and maintain pastures and farmlands, with approximately 20 x 10 6 ha being burned annually (UNEP, 2002). Amazon forest fires can burn 4 x 10 6 ha in drought years (Alencar et al., 2006) and emit 20 Mg C/ha from initial fuel emissions (Balch et al., 2008). ree types of fire occur in these landscapes: deforestation fires, where slashed vegetation is initially burned, maintenance fires that re-burn charred vegetation remnants and accidental forest fires that escape into surrounding forests (Cochrane, 2003). ese accidental forest fires can be quite intense, particularly when burning in previously degraded forests (Cochrane and Laurance, 2008). In this region, fire is used in shi ing cultivation (slash and burn agriculture), ranching (creating pastures), industrial agriculture and logging. Selectively logged forests are opened to sunlight and can become flammable in a ma er of days (Uhl and Kauffman, 1990). New forest edge is being created at a rate of kilometers annually by a combination of deforestation processes and logging (Cochrane and Laurance, 2008; Broadbent et al., 2008). An obvious synergism between fire and edges takes place, as fires occur along drier, exposed edges, and spread into remaining forest patches, especially during periodic El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (Cochrane et al., 1999). Natural fire-return intervals of years are being shortened to 5-10 years (Cochrane, 2001), preventing natural regeneration and replacing rainforests with degraded, fire-resistant vegetation. Climate change projections for tropical South America indicate the region will continue to warm over the next century, while precipitation will be spatially and temporally variable (IPCC, 2007). e Amazon region is expected to experience longer periods between rainfall events (Tebaldi et al., 2006), which is a critical factor as fire susceptibility is more closely related to time since rain than total rainfall amounts (Uhl and Kauffman, 1990). Climate will affect fire impacts in tropical South America, through changes in temperature and precipitation, but also through climate-forced changes in vegetation, fuel composition and structure (World Bank, 2010). However, given the overwhelming influence of human activity on fires, future fire regimes will be a product of both climate changes and human land management practices. Given the societal and economic importance of converting Amazonian rain forest to agricultural lands, it seems unlikely that extensive fire-related land management practices can or will be curtailed. Despite the regional and global scale importance of these forests in terms of biodiversity, climate and carbon/water cycles, it seems certain that they will exist on a smaller land base in the near future Fires in Tropical Southeast Asia In recent decades the Southeast Asia region has experienced extreme rates of deforestation and forest degradation (Achard et al., 2002; Langner et al., 2007). Between 1950 and 2000, 40% of Indonesian forests were cleared, with recent deforestation rates of 2 x 10 6 ha annually since 1996 (Global Forest Watch, 2002). Agricultural expansion and wood extraction are the main drivers of this rapid deforestation (Geist and Lambin, 2002), which has also increased the risk of fire, resulting in further forest loss and fragmentation (Siegert et al., 2001). ENSO events have been shown to strongly exacerbate fire occurrence and severity (Langner and Siegert, 2009). e fires were the largest of many ENSO-driven events in tropical Southeast Asia in recent decades, affecting an area of 11.7 x 10 6 ha in Indonesia alone, of which 2.4 x 10 6 ha was carbon-dense peat swamp forest (Page et al., 2002). ENSO-related peatland fires contribute substantially to the loss of biodiversity (Goldammer, 2006a), global burden of greenhouse gases (Bowman et al., 2009) and, through the production of fine particulate ma er and aerosols, cause a wide range of human health problems (Heil and Goldammer, 2001). ese health issues are often widespread across the region, as near-ground smoke circulates for extended period, resulting in lengthy exposure to toxic smoke byproducts in one of the most densely populated regions of the world. Millions of hectares of peatland in Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, have been deforested, drained and burned, and converted to oil palm and pulpwood estates. Peatland drainage and increased human access has resulted in extensive fires, particularly along edges of previously disturbed forests (Spessa et al.,

57 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ). Losses in tree cover lead to more fire activity as tree-dominated ecosystems are transformed to more fire-prone grassy ecosystems, creating a positive feedback loop (Goldammer, 1993, 1999). is process is very similar to that occurring in the tropical ecosystems of Amazonia. Future land use and climate changes will likely increase the frequency and severity of fires in the Southeast Asian region. Climate change predictions are for a median warming of 2.5 by the end of the twenty-first century accompanied by a predicted mean precipitation increase of about 7% (IPCC, 2007), although with potentially enhanced seasonality, i.e. wet-season precipitation increase and dry season decrease. e future behavior of ENSO is uncertain, but a recent study indicates that Indonesia as a whole could expect more frequent and longer droughts in the future (Abram et al., 2007). Deforestation itself, i.e. large-scale alterations in land cover, may also lead to more localized reductions in rainfall. ese changes will be critical for peatland areas which are increasingly fragmented and degraded by over-logging, drainage and agricultural conversion; fires in these areas are likely to provide a persistent source of greenhouse gas and particulate emissions over the decades to come. Incentives to reduce the excessive use of fire in land use and land-use change resulting in ecosystem degradation or destruction through tools such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) are encouraging (Campbell, 2009; UNFCCC, 2010). While Indonesia in pledged a deforestation moratorium and Brazil for some time has successfully reduced deforestation, the reality reveals a different picture of continuing burning activities and even a recent acceleration of deforestation in Brazil (BBC, 2011). With reference to the ambitious goals of Indonesia to halt deforestation Jotzo (2011) states: As with many other areas of policy, the difficulty is not coming up with a vision, but implementing it Fires in Sub-Saharan Africa In sub-saharan Africa more vegetation fires burn, and at higher frequencies, than anywhere on the planet. Given the lack of infrastructure surrounding much of the fire activity in this region, no reliable ground data on fire statistics are available. However, satellite-based analysis of active fires and recent burn scars has been used in recent years to gain a perspective on the extent of fire in this region. While estimates vary, there is general agreement that in excess of 230 x 10 6 ha burned in Africa in 2000 (JRC, 2005). Over the past million years most ecosystems of Sub- Saharan Africa evolved primarily through the human use of fire, and require fire to maintain ecosystem health and biodiversity. A er some a empts at fire control during colonial times, fire continued to be used indiscriminately by local populations, in a largely unsupervised manner. Today large parts of Sub-Saharan forests and woodlands are fully or partially burned every year as populations rapidly increased (Barbosa et al., 1999). Although lightning is a significant cause of fires in this region, the majority of fires are human-caused. e highest numbers of fires, intentional or otherwise, occur in the savanna biome, followed by slash-and-burn agriculture, and burning of agricultural residues. In addition to savanna fires, agricultural burns are o en le una ended and spread to neighbouring lands and forests. Economically important resources are increasingly destroyed by fires burning into fire-sensitive environments, including communities (Goldammer and de Ronde, 2004). In addition to areas that burn too frequently, resulting in site degradation, there are also a large number of areas that do not burn frequently enough. is results in bush encroachment in extensive savanna areas, significantly altering biome characteristics. High-value conifer plantations in southern Africa also pose a major wildfire threat, but offer an opportunity to use prescribed fire for fuel and wildfire hazard reduction (Goldammer and de Ronde, 2004). Traditional African societies used fire wisely as a land management tool, but that cultural understanding of use of fire has been largely lost in recent generations, due to the abandonment of traditional, sustainable land-use practices and the loss of rural labor force as a consequence of migration, rural exodus to urban centers, civil unrest and conflicts, and the ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic. e lack of infrastructure in Sub-Saharan African countries, along with other competition for scarce financial support, has thwarted the establishment of centralized fire protection organizations. Recently international assistance programs have begun to focus on fire prevention and preparedness, rather than direct fire suppression capacity. Community-based fire management programs, aimed at empowering communities to apply local knowledge in assuming responsibility for fire management, are growing across southern Africa, with international assistance (Goldammer et al., 2002). Vegetation fire issues in Sub-Saharan Africa are symptomatic of much larger economic and societal issues in this region. Although some progress is being achieved in terms of public education and involvement, it is unlikely that the level of unwanted fire problems will be reduced in the near future. Future trends of continental warming by per decade as projected by Hulme et al. (2001), particularly over the interior semi-arid tropical margins of the Sahara and central Southern Africa, may indicate that the associated changes of precipitation and drought regimes may influence fire regimes and vulnerability of human populations to adverse climate and fire events. 4. Wildland Fire Science and Policy e challenge of developing informed policy that recognizes both the beneficial and traditional roles of fire, while reducing the incidence and extent of uncontrolled burning and its adverse impacts, clearly has major technical, social, economic and political elements. In many countries better forest and land management techniques are required to minimize the risk of uncontrolled fires, and appropriate management strategies for preventing and controlling fires must be implemented if measurable progress is to be

58 52 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 achieved. A be er understanding by both policy-makers and the general population of the ecological, environmental, socio-cultural, land-use and public-health issues surrounding vegetation fires is essential. e potential for greater international and regional co-operation in sharing information and resources to promote more effective fire management also needs to be explored. e recent efforts of many UN programs and organizations are a positive step in this direction, but much remains to be accomplished. In the spirit and fulfilment of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the 2002 World Summit for Sustainable Development (WSSD) and the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), there is an obvious need for more reliable data on fire occurrence and impacts. Remote sensing must and should play a major role in meeting this requirement. In addition to the obvious need for improved spaceborne fire-observation systems and more effective operational systems capable of using information from remote sensing and other spaceborne technologies, the remote sensing community needs to focus its efforts more on the production of useful and meaningful products. It must be underscored that the traditional approach in dealing with wildland fires exclusively under the traditional forestry schemes must be replaced in future by an inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary approach at landscape levels. e devastating effects of many wildfires are an expression of demographic growth, land-use and land-use changes, the socio-cultural implications of globalization, and climate variability. us, integrated strategies and programs must be developed to address the fire problem at its roots, while at the same time creating an enabling environment and develop appropriate tools for policy and decision makers to proactively act and respond to fire. What are the implications of these conclusions on fire science? e above-mentioned first major interdisciplinary and international research programs conducted in the early 1990s, including the inter-continental fire-atmosphere research campaigns such as the Southern Tropical Atlantic Regional Experiment (STARE) with the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SA- FARI) (JGR, 1996), clearly paved the way to develop visions and models for a comprehensive science of the biosphere. At the beginning of the ird Millennium it is recognized that progress has been achieved in clarifying the fundamental mechanisms of fire in the global environment, including the reconstruction of the prehistoric and historic role of fire in the genesis of planet Earth and in the co-evolution of the human race and nature. However, at this stage we have to examine the utility of the knowledge that has been generated by a dedicated science community. We have to ask this at a time when it is becoming obvious that fire plays a major role in the degradation of the global environment. It follows from the statement of Pyne (2001) Fire has the capacity to make or break sustainable environments. Today some places suffer from too much fire, some from too li le or the wrong kind, but everywhere fire disasters appear to be increasing in both severity and damages that we must ask whether wildland fire is becoming a major threat at the global level? Does wildland fire at a global scale contribute to an increase of exposure and vulnerability of ecosystems to secondary / associated degradation and even catastrophes? e regional analyses provided in this White Paper reveal that environmental destabilization by fire is obviously accelerating. is trend goes along with an increasing vulnerability of human populations. Conversely, humans are not only affected by fire but are the main causal agent of destructive fires, through both accidental, unwanted wildfires, and the use of fire as a tool for conversion of vegetation and reshaping whole landscapes. is trend, however, is not inevitable. ere are opportunities to do something about global fire because unlike the majority of the geological and hydrometeorological hazards wildland fires represent a natural hazard which is primarily human-made, can be predicted, controlled and, in many cases, prevented. Here is the key for the way forward. Wildland fire science has to decide its future direction by answering a number of basic questions: What are the future role of fundamental fire science, and the added value of additional investments? What can be done to close the gap between the wealth of knowledge, methods and technologies for sustainable fire management and the inability of humans to exercise control? From the perspective of the authors of the White Paper the added value of continuing fundamental fire science is marginal. Instead, instruments and agreed procedures need to be identified to bring existing technologies to application. Costs and impacts of fire have to be quantified systematically to illustrate the significance of wildland fire management for sustainable development. Fire science must also assist to understand which institutional arrangement would work best for fire management in the many new nations that have been created over the past dozen years, e.g. the nations built a er the collapse of the former Soviet Union or Yugoslavia, or countries that democratized, a few by simple independence or dramatic regime changes. e questions to be addressed include: What kind of fire policies and fire institutions should such nations adopt? What research programs are suitable? What kind of training yields the biggest results? What kinds of fire management systems are appropriate for what contexts? What kind of international aid programs achieve the best outcomes? How should such countries reform in a way that advances the safety of their rural populations and the sustainability of their land and resources? So far no such study no such field of inquiry, the political ecology of fire exists. Yet there are ample examples available from history, especially Europe s colonial era, and many experiments over the past 50 years. ere is the record of policy and institutional reforms for the major fire nations such as the United States, Russia, Canada, and Australia. ere were scores of projects sponsored by

59 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March international organizations. What is needed is a systematic collection and analysis of these experiences and data. is is something that can be achieved with a modest investment of scholarship and money. Similarly, a compelling need exists to understand better the impact of industrialization which involves the burning of fossil biomass. Both developed and undeveloped countries are struggling to understand the consequences of fossil fuel use for fire management, of this transformation. How, precisely, does burning fossil biomass change the pa erns of fire on the land, for good or ill? We understand something about the relationships and cumulative effects between biomass burning and fossilfuel burning in the atmosphere; we do not understand the mechanics of their competition on the Earth s vegetated surfaces. Modern transportation systems can open forests to markets, and lead to extreme fires. Equally, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and mechanized ploughs can remove fire from agricultural fields. e replacement of biofuels for cooking and heating in some regions by fossil fuels has led to a vast accumulation of hazardous fuels in wildlands. In other regions the availability of fossil or solar energy has eased the pressure of vegetation depletion. Yet both fire s introduction and its removal have ecological consequences. ese are linked problems for which there are no models or theory. Most of the current fire research is sponsored by governments and that because those governments have responsibility for large tracts of public land. ese landscapes ma er because their fires can (and do) threaten communities, because the mismanagement of fire can undermine the ecological health of the protected biota, and because they influence carbon cycling and global warming. But most of the world s fires reside in the developing world and are embedded within agricultural systems or systems subject to rapid logging for export or conversion to plantations. ese are the scenes of many of the worst fires and most damaging fire and smoke episodes. Traditional research into fire fundamentals has scant value in such conditions, which are the result of social and political factors. Yet these are circumstances in which even a small amount of research could produce large and immediate dividends. is implies that scientific focus has to be shi ed. e fire domain for a long time has been governed by interdisciplinary natural sciences research. Engineering research has contributed to a high level of development in the industrial countries. What is needed in future is a research focus at the interface between the human dimension of fire and the changing global environment. e new fire science in the third millennium must be applicationoriented and understood by policy makers, a science that bridges institutions, politics, people, and ecology. Continued research prioritizing fire fundamentals, fascinating as it is, cannot address these ma ers. 5. Conclusions e contribution of global wildland fire science and management community to the way forward must lead towards the formulation of national and international public policies that will be harmonized with the objectives of international conventions, protocols and other agreements, e.g., the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN- FCCC), the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands or the Hyogo Framework for Action [HFA] : Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters. In 2013 the UNECE/FAO Forum on Crossboundary Fire Management provided rationale and recommendations to enhancing informal processes of cooperation in fire management toward the development of an international regime of coordinated wildfire preparedness and response.⁸ e International Wildfire Preparedness Mechanism (IWPM), hosted by the Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) since 2014, is a non-financial instrument serving as a broker / facilitator between national and international agencies, programmes and projects to exchange expertise and build capacities in wildland fire management and particularly in enhancing preparedness to large wildfire emergency situations.⁹ e Post-2015 HFA offers a suitable opportunity to address global fire at a cross-sectoral approach. 6. A nowledgements e GFMC is indebted to the contributing authors for their endurance in the years 2009 to 2012 to contribute, review and revise the White Paper. By sequence of chapters the lead and contributing authors are: Johann Georg Goldammer, Stephen J. Pyne, omas W. Swetnam, Cathy Whitlock, Brian J. Stocks, Mike D. Flannigan, Anatoly I. Sukhinin, Eugene Ponomarev, Larry Hinzman, F. Stuart Chapin, Masami Fukuda, Susan Page, Jack Rieley, Agata Hoscilo, Allan Spessa, Ulrich Weber, Mark A. Cochrane, José M. Moreno, V. Ramón Vallejo, Emilio Chuvieco, Richard J. Williams, Ross A. Bradstock, Geoffrey J. Cary, Liz Dovey, Neal J. Enright, A. Malcolm Gill, John Handmer, Kevin J. Hennessy, Adam C. Liedloff, Christopher Lucas, Max A. Moritz, Meg A. Krawchuk, Jon E. Keeley, Winston S.W. Trollope, Cornelis de Ronde, Meinrat O. Andreae, Guido van der Werf, Kirsten onicke, Jose Gomez Dans, Veiko Lehsten, Rosie Fisher, Ma hew Forrest, Lynn Gowman, Mike Wo on, William J. de Groot, Armando González-Cabán, Milt Statheropoulos, Sofia Karma, William J. Bond, Guy F. Midgley, Christopher O. Justice, Ivan Csiszar, Luigi Bosche i, Stefania Korontzi, Wilfrid Schroeder, Louis Giglio, Krishna Prasad Vadrevu, and David Roy. ⁸ ⁹

60 54 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 References Note: e main reference for this paper, including the 25 chapters authored by the 57 contributing authors, is Goldammer (2013). Abram, N.J., Gagan, M.K., Liu, Z., Hantoro, W.S., McCulloch, M.T., Suwargadi, B.W. (2007): Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean Dipole during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 445: Achard, F., Eva, H.D., Stibig, H.J., Mayaux, P., Gallego, J., Richards, T., Malingreau, J.P. (2002): Determination of deforestation rates of the world s humid tropical forests, Science, 297: Alencar, A., Nepstad, D.C., Diaz, M.C.V. (2006): Forest understory fire in the Brazilian Amazon in ENSO and non-enso years: area burned and Commi ed carbon emissions, Earth Interactions, 10: Andreae, M.O. (ed.) (1992): Biomass Burning Experiment: Impact of Fire on the Atmosphere and Biosphere (BIBEX). Activity 2.3 of Focus 2 Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Perturbations of the Tropical Atmospheric Chemistry. IGAC Core Project Office, Massachuse s Institute for Technology, Cambridge, MA, 19 p. + App. Accessible online:. Andreae, M.O., Merlet, P. (2001): Emission of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 15: Andreae, M.O., Rosenfeld, D., Artaxo, P., Costa, A.A., Frank, G.P., Longo, K.M., Silva-Dias, M.A.F. (2004): Smoking rain clouds over the Amazon, Science, 303: Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J., Neilson, R., Drapek, R., Ki el, T. (2005): Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska, Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35: Balch, J.K., Nepstad, D.C., Brando, P.M., Curran, L.M., Portela, O., de Carvalho, O., Lefebvre, P. (2008): Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia, Global Change Biology, 14: Barbosa, P.M., Stroppiana, D., Gregoire, J.M., Pereira, J.M.C. (1999): An assessment of vegetation fire in Africa ( ): burned areas, burned biomass, and atmospheric emissions, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 13: BBC (2011): Brazil: Amazon rainforest deforestation rises sharply. deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest has increased almost sixfold, new data suggests. British Broadcasting Corporation News Latin America and Caribbean,. Bowman, D.M.J.S., Balch, J.K., Artaxo, P., et al. (2009): Fire in the earth system, Science, 324: Broadbent, E.N., Asner, G.P., Keller, G.P., Knapp, D.E., Oliveira, P., Silva, J.N. (2008): Forest fragmentation and edge effects from deforestation and selective logging in the Brazilian Amazon, Biological Conservation, 141: Campbell, B.M. (2009) Beyond Copenhagen: REDD+, agriculture, adaptation strategies and poverty, Global Environmental Change, 19, Cardoso, M.F., Hur, G.C., Moore, B., Nobre, C.A., Prins, E.M. (2003): Projecting future fire activity in Amazonia, Global Change Biology 9: CCFM (2005): Canadian wildland fire strategy: a vision for an innovative and integrated approach to managing the risks. Canadian Council of Forest Ministers, Catalogue No. Fo134-1/2005E. ISBN Chuvieco, E., Giglio, L., Justice, C. (2008): Global characterization of fire activity toward defining fire regimes from Earth observation data, Global Change Biology, 14: Cochrane, M.A., Alencar, A., Schulze, M.D., Souza, Jr. C.M., Nepstad, D.C., Lefebvre, P., Davidson, E. (1999): Positive feedbacks in the fire dynamic of closed canopy tropical forests, Science, 284: Cochrane, M.A. (2001): Synergistic interactions between habitat fragmentation and fire in evergreen tropical forests, Conservation Biology 15: Cochrane, M.A. (2003): Fire science for rainforests, Nature, 421: Cochrane, M.A., Laurance, W.F. (2008): Synergisms among fire, land use, and climate change in the Amazon, Ambio 37: Crutzen, P.J., Andreae, M.O. (1990): Biomass burning in the tropics: Impact on atmospheric chemistry and biogeochemical cycles, Science, 250: Crutzen, P.J., and J.G. Goldammer (eds.) (1993): Fire in the environment: e ecological, atmospheric, and climatic importance of vegetation fires. Dahlem Workshop Reports. Environmental Sciences Research Report 13. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. Dai, A. (2011): Drought under global warming: a review, Climate Change, 2: European Commission (2010): Forest Fires in Europe JRC Scientific and Technical Report No. 10. EC Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability. Flannigan, M.D., Amiro, B.D., Logan K.A., Stocks, B.J., Wo on, B. (2005): Forest fires and climate change in the 21st Century, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change, 11: Flannigan, M.D., Stocks, B.J., Turetsky, M.R., Wo on, B.M. (2009a): Impact of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest, Global Change Biology, 15:

61 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Flannigan, M.D., Krawchuk, M.A., de Groot, W.J., Wo on, B.M., Gowman, L.M. (2009b): Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire, International Journal of Wildland Fire, 18: FAO (2006): Global Forest Resources Assessment Progress towards sustainable forest management. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Forestry Paper 147. Rome: FAO. Geist, H.J., Lambin, E.F. (2002): Proximate causes and underlying driving forces of tropical deforestation, BioScience, 52: Goldammer, J.G. (1993): Feuer in Waldökosystemen der Tropen und Subtropen, Basel: Birkhäuser-Verlag. Goldammer, J.G. (1999): Forests on fire, Science, 284: Goldammer, J.G. (2006a): History of equatorial vegetation fires and fire research in Southeast Asia before the episode. A Reconstruction of creeping environmental changes, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12: Goldammer, J.G. 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62 56 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Kasischke, E.S., Stocks, B.J. (eds.) (2000): Fire, Climate Change, and Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest, Ecological Studies 138, New York: Springer. Kasischke, E.S., Turetsky, M.R. (2006): Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region- spatial and temporal pa erns of burning across Canada and Alaska, Geophysical Research Le ers, 33. doi: /2006GL Krawchuk, M.A., Moritz, M.A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., Hayhoe, K. (2009): Global pyrogeography: Macro-scaled statistical models for understanding the current and future distribution of fire, PLoS One 4, e5102. doi: /journal.pone Kurz, W.A., Apps, M.J., Stocks, B.J., Volney, W.J.A. (1995): Global climate change: disturbance regimes and biospheric feedbacks of temperate and boreal forests, in: G. M. Woodwell and F. 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63 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Pyne, S.J., Andrews, P.L., Laven, R.D. (1996): Introduction to wildland fire. New York: Wiley. Randerson, J.T., Liu, H., Flanner, M.G., et al. (2006): e impact of boreal forest fire on climate warming, Science, 314: Rees, J.R. (2009): Statement of Russell James Rees to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission. Available from:. Rego, F. (1992): Land use changes and wildfires, in: A. Teller, P. Mathy, J.N.R. Jeffers, (eds.), Response of Forest Ecosystems to Environmental Changes, Elsevier: London. Royal Bushfire Commission (2010) Final report. Parliament of Victoria 2009, Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, Victoria, Australia. Silva, J.S., Rego, F., Fernandes, P., Rigolot, E. (eds.) (2010): Towards integrated fire management Outcomes of the European project Fire Paradox, European Forest Institute Research Report 23, Joensuu, Finland. Schoennagel, T., Vebien, T.T., Romme, W.H. 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64 58 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the toppling dominos metaphor PESCAROLI, Gianluca a and ALEXANDER, David b a Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom, gianluca.pescaroli.14@ucl.ac.uk b Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London, London, United Kingdom, david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk Abstract e consequences of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake persuaded the global community to consider more realistically the problem of cascading disasters. Since then, the concept has been widely used among scholars and practitioners but its definition remains vague. In order to explain a chain-sequence of interconnected failures, the word cascading is o en associated with the metaphor of toppling dominoes, which may have a bearing on the cause-and-effect relationship that is a feature of most catastrophic events. Our paper aims to avoid this grey area and offer a clear definition that is suitable for field and theoretical use. A review of the literature is employed to point out the specific features that differentiate cascading disasters and cascading effects from other forms and dynamics of disaster. Glossaries are surveyed and past disasters analysed in order to reflect on which are the critical elements of a cascade and how best to investigate them. Our conclusions suggest that interdependencies, vulnerability, amplification, secondary disasters and critical infrastructure are important factors that need to be addressed in risk reduction practices in order to limit cascading during disasters. Keywords cascading, vulnerability, secondary disasters, interconnection, critical infrastructures, amplification 1. Introduction Constructing definitions and glossaries is a challenge for all organizations and institutions involved in major projects. In defining terms they may establish criteria for financing a project, determine the focus required by funders, or address the domain of policies, practice and research. In other words, the precision and aptness of definitions and glossaries can determine the success or failure of initiatives and investments. Anyone who is committed to the field of disaster risk reduction will sooner or later experience the moment at which failure adequately to define terms starts to complicate objectives and fill up precious time with meetings and discussions. A typical example is the question of how how one can quantify resilience in order to have tangible outputs from a project on safety. Alternatively, another critical question may concern whether one is dealing with reduction in vulnerability or increase in resilience. In recent years, two other concepts have become increasingly popular in a broad range of enquiries: cascading effects and cascading disasters (Franchina et al. 2011, Peters et al. 2008). International glossaries propose no definition that could distinguish cascades from the complex causal chain that is present in all large disasters. Moreover, the analogy of toppling dominoes (Genserik 2009) that is commonly used to explain the phenomena may be misleading. It could be argued that disasters do not need to be conceptualised as cascades, which offer no particular challenge of understanding or management in this respect. However, there do appear to be circumstances in which vulnerability reduction strategies depend on the ability to develop a proper understanding of cascades. We believe that some significant pa erns differentiate cascading disasters from ordinary disasters. is paper aims to create evidence-based definitions that may help scholars and practitioners address the challenges posed by cascading events. First, we provide an analysis of the current glossaries and the state of art, including a reflection on the specific features of the cascade metaphor. Secondly, the specific drivers that distinguish the phenomena are addressed and tested by development of an overview of disasters that involve cascades. We conclude by offering an improved definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects in disaster.

65 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March A Review of Cascading Definitions International glossaries propose no specific definition of cascading disasters. e only freely available overview appears to be that provided by May (2007), which is strictly limited to cases produced by the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Table 1 reports some example quotations from the literature which are pertinent to the problem of how to define cascades in the context of disasters, incidents and emergencies. e phenomenon considered is associated mainly with events in which a primary threat is followed by a sequence of secondary hazards. May s conclusion is that cascades tend to be dependent on their context and are dynamic systems, in which a branching tree structure originates from a primary event. is follows the analogy of the topping dominoes: the first domino is toppled, it strikes the next in line and topples follow as far as the end of the sequence. In disasters there may also be branching networks. Each branch can be considered to be event on its own and may be isolated from the main impetus, resulting in something with its own importance, its own degree of damages, and its own consequences. e cascading phenomena are thus primary, secondary, tertiary, and so on. However, May also argued that, other than this broad overview, the cascade concept remains vague and lacks precise explanation. Another example of the general lack of clear definitions is given in FEMA s Facilitator Guide (2011). is document describes cascading as a form of general dynamic that may multiply the effects of a combination of different hazards, such as an earthquake that produces a breakdown in infrastructure, whose failure contaminates water and causes disease to spread, which disrupts the local economy. However, it can be argued that most disaster situations are inherently complex, and in all disasters a primary event causes a sequence of effects that could in turn cause damage and other adverse consequences, regardless of whether one uses a cascade model or not. To understand the meaning of the term properly, it is necessary to enquire further into what is meant by disaster and then return to the original metaphor of the cascade in order coherently to integrate the two ideas. e first glossary to discuss is that published by the United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA 1992). Although it offered no definition of cascade, it defined disaster as a serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses, which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. Disasters are o en classified according to their cause (natural or manmade) (UNOCHA 1992, p. 27). is definition showed that disruption could affect the functioning of society as a whole, and implied that broader co-operation among different organisations and countries would be needed so as to provide the resources needed to cope with the event. Subsequently, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2009) again provided no definition of cascading but offered a broader definition of disaster as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources (UNISDR 2009, p. 9). Disasters thus result from a combination of exposure to hazards, local vulnerabilities and insufficient capacity to reduce or cope with the consequences of events. e impacts may include loss of life, injury, disease and other negative effects on human physical, mental and social well-being, together with damage to property, destruction of assets, loss of services, social and economic disruption and environmental degradation (UNISDR 2009). In the UNISDR definition, the key word again seems to be disruption, but it stressed also both the direct and indirect impacts of events, while introducing vulnerability as a fundamental element of losses. Finally, a definition was adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2012). Cascading is not reported in this organisation s glossary and disasters are referred as severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may require external support for recovery (IPCC 2012, p. 558). In this instance, the relationship between society and the physical event is given more weight than is general disruption. e interaction between physical events and vulnerability is taken into consideration, and the need for cross-border emergency response is implied. e literature at large makes it clear that that disaster involves the interaction of natural and human systems, in which the la er could act as an amplifying factor. e nature of the risk society itself requires a more dynamic understanding of the global interdependence of human, natural, and technological systems, which can produce hazards and disasters (Perry and arantelli 2005). A relevant source of complexity is the evidence that many disasters are composite or concurrent, as for example when a single earthquake causes tsunami waves at sea, landslides or avalanches on slopes, dam failures at reservoirs, and building damage and fires in urban areas (Alexander 1993, p. 9). In other words, the relationship between geophysical impact and human vulnerability means that naturally induced effects are difficult to separate from anthropogenic ones, and the different elements can interact and amplify each other. is seems to be a vital factor of the definition of cascades (see table 1). 3. Complex Systems, Vulnerabilities and the Cascade Metaphor e evidence from the literature reported above suggests that cascades can be considered as a direct output of the evolution of complex systems. Primary disasters can generate secondary disasters as joint artefacts of the causal chain and the interaction between anthropogenic systems and ecological ones (Helbing 2005). New vulnerabilities are derived from the increasing interdependencies be-

66 60 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Table 1: Definitions of cascading from the disaster management literature, as reported by May (2007). Reference FEMA Independent Study Course, IS 230, Principles of Emergency Management FEMA Independent Study Course, IS 393, Introduction to Mitigation U.S. Department of Homeland Security National Response Plan, December 2004 FEMA for Kids Website, Resources for Parents and Teachers, How Schools Can Become More Disaster Resistant. Resource Materials: Integrating Manmade Hazards into Mitigation Planning Risk Management in a Multi-Hazard World 2003 All-Hazards Mitigation Workshop June 12, 2003 Emergency Management Institute FEMA 428, Asset Value, reat/hazard, Vulnerability, And Risk Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment, 2003 Local Guide, Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management Division, Regional All-Hazards Mitigation Plan, City of St. Louis and counties of St. Louis, Jefferson, Franklin and St. Charles, Missouri, November ote p Cascading events are events that occur as a direct or indirect result of an initial event. For example, if a flash flood disrupts electricity to an area and, as a result of the electrical failure, a serious traffic accident involving a hazardous materials spill occurs, the traffic accident is a cascading event. If, as a result of the hazardous materials spill, a neighborhood must be evacuated and a local stream is contaminated, these are also cascading events. Taken together, the effect of cascading events can be crippling to a community. p Cascading emergencies situations when one hazard triggers others in a cascading fashion should be considered. For example, an earthquake that ruptured natural gas pipelines could result in fires and explosions that dramatically escalate the type and magnitude of events. p. 4 Additionally, since Incidents of National Significance typically result in impacts far beyond the immediate or initial incident area, the NRP [National Response Plan] provides a framework to enable the management of cascading impacts and multiple incidents as well as the prevention of and preparation for subsequent events.... disasters can have a cascading effect forest fires can bring mudslides; earthquakes cause fires; tornadoes cause downed power lines Indirect a acks: infrastructures are really interconnected systems of systems; an a ack on one can lead to cascading losses of service (ranging from inconvenient to deadly) and financial consequences for government, society, and economy through publicand private-sector reactions to an a ack. p What is the likelihood of cascading or subsequent consequences should the asset be destroyed or its function lost? Hazards create direct damages, indirect effects, and secondary hazards to the community. Direct damages are caused immediately by the event itself, such as a bridge washing out during a flood. Indirect effects usually involve interruptions in asset operations and community functions, also called functional use. For example, when a bridge is washed out due to a flood, traffic is delayed or rerouted, which then impacts individuals, businesses, and public services such as fire and police departments that depend on the bridge for transportation. Secondary hazards are caused by the initial hazard event, such as when an earthquake causes a tsunami, landslide, or dam break. While these are disasters in their own right, their consequent damages should be included in the damage calculations of the initial hazard event. Loss estimations will include a determination of the extent of direct damages to property and indirect effects on functional use. Cascading hazards could include interruption of power supply, water supply, business and transportation. tween our energy, food and water systems, global supply chains, communication and financial systems, ecosystems and climate (Helbing 2013, p. 52). Non-linear interactions can combine with network effects and randomness in increasing sensitivity to small changes, in which one event triggers others, thereby creating amplification and cascade effects. In order to understand the path of a cascade, three contributing factors must be taken into account: the interactions in the system, the context (such as institutional or boundary conditions), and a triggering event (Helbing 2013, p.54). Helbing also noted that randomness may determine the temporal evolution of the system, which further complicates ma ers. e propagation of the cascade is funda-

67 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: Samples of cascades, in clockwise order: the spring of Enna stream, Italy (Source: Marco Fleming, Wikicommons, 2006); Oirase waterfall, Japan (Source Wikicommons, 1992), waterfall on the Fossá River, Iceland (Source: Wikicommons, 2009); Cascade Falls, Virginia (Source: ). mentally related to vulnerability. D Ercole and Metzger (2009) suggested that some particular spaces act as generators of vulnerabilities in social systems. ey act by two different mechanisms of propagation, namely, dependency (function) and localization (space). us, it can be argued that critical infrastructures and facilities are important because they act as sources of amplification. ey involve particular services that are critical to emergency response and recovery, as well as to the maintenance or restoration of normal activities. As the complexity of human space increases with the urbanization process, there is a need to find redundancy and reliable alternatives to activities affected by disaster (Jha et al. 2013). e interdependent nature of many systems significantly increases the potential for cascading effects that could spread from one kind of infrastructure to another. Li le (2002) provided two clear examples of this. On the one hand, electricity is conveyed by generators and substations, which are susceptible to cascading failures when power fluctuations exceed the margin of tolerance, and this affects many other activities. On the other hand, the damage to the road system can be related to simultaneous failures in water and gas supplies that lie underground, while because of the lack of water supply and pressure, any fires generated by the damage could not be fought effectively. Vulnerability in infrastructure can be caused by physical elements and can be passed directly on to human activity, as for example when loss of electricity supply causes meetings to be cancelled and results in a variety of modifications to normal activities. Social and political decisions can determine, not only the vulnerability of infrastructure, but also that of society itself: the relationship between vulnerability, politics, policies and crisis management capacities determines how escalating events are managed. For example, the adoption land use planning against floods, the will to respect the regulations, and the instruments to limit contraventions are integral parts of flood disaster risk reduction. Alexander (2000) explained that the feedback process in political, technological, social and cultural realms can favour unprotected development and inhibit mitigation when the abating factors related to knowledge and good governance are overwhelmed by negative factors such as corruption and negligence. If attention is focussed more on abating hazard than reducing vulnerability in complex processes, the problems may escalate into secondary disasters such as that which occurred when the 2011 Japanese tsunami struck the nuclear plant at Fukushima Dai ichi. is leads us to ask what can be added by the use of the cascading metaphor. e Oxford English Dictionary relates the term cascade to a waterfall or to a series of small falls formed by water in its descent. is can be given a figurative meaning, as when electrical devices are connected in a manner that each operates the next one in turn. e term is also used to mean a succession of stages or processes in particular operations or events in scientific disciplines, such as physics or chemistry. e Encyclopaedia Britannica uses a similar meaning, but it specifies that cascade may be natural or artificial. Figure 1 shows various images that may help integrate the observation of nature

68 62 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 with the definitions reported here. Cascades are generated from a flow of water, whose behaviour results from its interaction with contextual features, such as its general geographical location or rocks and barriers at the micro scale. eir formation is dependent on long-lasting processes such as erosion, or specific human activities, such as water basin management. e main stream can be divided in smaller rivulets, and it can be assumed that the force of water is dictated by mass and gravity. In terms of disaster risk reduction, these points can be cross-checked with the definitions provided in the literature. What emerges is that cascades are events that depend, to some extent, on their context, and thus their diffusion is associated with enduring vulnerabilities. ey are subject to a process of amplification of damage over time, and this can be distinguished by the presence of subsidiary disasters. ese may be derived mostly from failures of human subsystems and the disruption of critical infrastructure. e path is non-linear, and branches are visible in terms of sub-disasters. For example, an ordinary disaster can stem from an industrial explosion that generates loss of life and injuries, damages other buildings in the nearby, affects the local economy, and creates other intangible effects such as psychological distress. Similarly, the consequences of ordinary floods can be loss of life, economic and social disruption, contamination of water supplies, and intangible effects. Instead, cascading could be perceived as an industrial explosion that affect a chemical supply storage nearby, which casuses a major toxic cloud that becames a critical emergency (subsidary disaster) to be manged on its own. Another example could be a flood that involves a major electric or telecommunication station, which service interruption generates major problems that affect a larger area than the one physically involved by the primary event, becoming an emergency (subsidary disaster) on its own. Figure 2 shows (a) a linear sequence of events, and (b) a non-linear path of cascading. Figure 2: (a) Linear path of events in disasters, and (b) nonlinear path of cascading, including amplification and subsidiary disasters. 4. Case Study Analysis: A Short Overview of some Events e following examples illustrate cascading disasters in the modern world. Each has a distinctive message for students of the phenomenon, as we will explain in the concluding part of the section. e 2001 Baltimore freight rail crash is reported as an example of a cascading incident in the FEMA training manual (2011). A train consisting of three locomotives and 60 cars derailed in the Howard Street Tunnel of Baltimore on Wednesday 18th July is caused the rupture of a tanker railcar that transported 1182 hl of liquid triproplylene, which is not considered hazardous to human health or the environment but nevertheless caught fire. e flames interacted with other hazardous materials carried by the train including hydrochloric acid, a highly corrosive substance that can produce irreversible damage to the human body. As result, a black toxic smoke spread across the Baltimore downtown area, forcing the authorities to close off access to this part of the city and to ask to residents to remain indoor for two days. A burst water main flooded local streets and freight traffic was heavily affected for more than five days. Finally, the joint effect of water, fire and wreckage compromised three major fibreoptic lines that lay in the tunnel, generating severe disruption of Internet services in the northeast United States (FEMA 2011). In this case, the spatial se ing is concentrated but it is revealed a strategic point in networks, communication, transportation and water supply. Cascading became evident as time progressed: an ordinary incident escalated due to the interaction among vulnerable elements, including the presence of chemicals. e 2002 floods in Prague, capital of the Czech Republic, were part of a cross-border event of extreme magnitude that involved several states in Central Europe. Heavy rainfall during early August triggered sequential waves of flooding. e main rivers, the Oder, Neiss, Elbe, Mulde, Danube and Vltava, broke their banks and severely inundated the Czech Republic, Germany, Austria, and Slovakia. Physical impacts were visible also in Poland, Hungary, Romania and Croatia. e floods caused lives to be lost and injuries to occur, plus economic damages on the scale of billions of euros, and significant damage to cultural heritage and unique historical sites. e main cascades were visible in the cessation of activity of two large power stations along the Danube River in Slovakia, a chlorine gas cloud released by the Spolana chemical plant outside Prague, and the thousands of inhabitants of Prague and Dresden who had to be vaccinated against hepatitis (Ekengren et al. 2006). e impact on the capital of the Czech Republic was particularly strong, and it necessitated a strong commitment on to help the part of the international community. At the time, it was reckoned to be the greatest flood damage in the history of the nation (Hladny et al. 2004). In order to understand the different facet of the cascade, some aspects of the disaster need to be analysed in more detail. First, the Spolana chlorine and mercury chemical spill did not caused loss of life but required a

69 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March large commitment of emergency resources, constant monitoring and the intervention of special units (Nato 2002b). It created long-term pollution and led to ad hoc legislation on curbing the problem. Secondly, 124 wastewater treatment plants and industrial sites were inundated and damaged. Contaminants were released into the water supply, while aquifers experienced increases in levels of organic pollution (Haldney et al. 2004). International relief began mainly by providing portable dryers, floating pumps and submersible electric pumps and then shi ed to address the emerging cascade related to water contamination, by providing hepatitis vaccines, gamma globulin and chlorinebased disinfectants (NATO 2002a, b, c). As per its specialisation, Italy offered support for the restoration of cultural artefacts (Nato 2002c). Vulnerabilities in critical infrastructures were determinants of the cascading: dams and mobile barriers were built according to models that did not consider major floods of medium or long return periods (Haldny et al. 2004), while the vulnerability of the Spolana plant was noted as critical by Greenpeace long before the event. Police investigations a er the flood concentrated on water basin management and chloride leakage. e 2003 black-out in North America. On 14th August 2014 the sudden breakdown of a power station caused generation to switch to others in north-east America. In the United States and Ontario, 55 million people were le without electricity for up to 48 hours. e cost in the United States was estimated to be between 4billionand10 billion, while in Canada GDP was down by 0.7 Hengchun earthquake (Taiwan, 2006). is event principally affected Taiwan and involved limited loss of life and injury. Buildings collapsed, fires broke out, telephones ceased to function and the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant was affected, but the situation was kept under control. In terms of cascading, the key aspect was that the earthquake damaged the submarine communication cables that served much of east and south-east Asia, with profound effects on communications and financial transactions in the area (Smith and Petley 2009). In other words, it shows that an event of limited impact had amplified effects on damage to a single and localized infrastructure. It shows how the interdependencies of communication can contribute to the escalation an event from the local to the regional and potentially global levels. e eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyja allajökull in April 2010 led to the shut-down of civil aviation over most of Europe for almost a week. is highlighted the dependency of modern society on functioning global networks (Alexander 2013). Eight and a half million people were temporarily stranded. ere was severe pressure on other forms of transport and major imbalances occurred in hotel occupancy. Airlines risked bankruptcy and both tourism and business travel were severely disrupted. International commerce in perishable goods was disrupted, as was the urgent air freight transportation of medical supplies, including bone-marrow for transplants. Orchestras had to cancel foreign tours and thus lost vital revenue. Businesses had to reorganise, and international conferences were suspended or cancelled. Eyja allajökull showed that secondary events in cascades can even become the main vector of crisis. On the one hand, the physical damages directly associated with the eruption were limited. On the other hand, the shut-down of civil aviation became the driver of major disruption because of the dependencies and interconnections that global society has developed through its use of the transportation sector. e Tōhoku earthquake of 11 March 2011 is considered to be an outstanding example of a cascading disaster. It affected three prefectures in northeast Honshu, the main island of Japan. Although only about 100 people died as a direct result of the earthquake, about were killed by the ensuing tsunami. e most enduring consequence of this may be radioactive contamination resulting from tsunami damage to the Fukushima Dai ichi nuclear reactors which, in the short term, caused the evacuation of people from the surrounding area. As a result of damage to the global supply chain, vehicle production was affected, not only in Japan, but also in Europe. Fruit, vegetable and meat production from the agricultural areas of Fukushima was contaminated with radioactivity. Dams, utilities and coastal defences were destroyed, which complicated the recovery process. Outmigration compromised the labour force required to reconstruct the 443 sq. km of coastal land and se lements that had been devastated by the tsunami. Worldwide, the political agenda was heavily influenced by a heated public debate on nuclear safety: immediately a er the disaster Germany decided to phase out its reactors by 2022, while in Italy more than 94 per cent of electors voted in a referendum to block the creation of new nuclear power plants. In other words, this event shows the occurrence of the probable worst scenario for the interaction between natural and technological hazards. e same physical event generated three different impacts that affected the vulnerability of humans and their geographical spaces, and hence, in effect, three different disasters occured that amplified the impact while they progressed through time. On the one hand, the primary trigger (the earthquake) caused limited damages and its effects were reduced by preparedness and mitigation measures. On the other hand, it generated a clear chain of cascading effects that increased complexity in time and space due to the interaction of different hazards, threats, and vulnerabilities. In particular, the Fukushima Nuclear Accident was was a profoundly manmade disaster that could and should have been foreseen and prevented (National Diet of Japan 2012). Hurricane Sandy, or super storm Sandy, developed as tropical depression in the Southwest Caribbean Sea on 22nd October It increased in strength and on 29th October made landfall in the United States which was the country most affected by the storm. It caused a catastrophic sea surge on the New Jersey and New York coastlines. In New Jersey, hurricane-force winds exceeded 280 km/hr, and over a diameter of 1610 km, winds exceeded 65 km/hr. e US Federal Emergency Management Agency defined Sandy as the second largest Atlantic storm on record (FEMA 2013). A long sequence of cascading effects can be discerned since the early phases of the event. Sandy made landfall on 29th October, generating a major storm surge that critically affected the coast of New

70 64 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Jearsey and New York states. e overall impact of the joint event was amplified because the extreme weather affected the region of the USA with the densest population, where much critical infrastructure vital to the nation s economy is concentrated (FEMA 2013, p. 4). e global economy was affected in terms of the shut-down of NASDAQ and the New York Stock Exchange. Direct damage to residential and industrial buildings was high, while there were many power outages that lasted between several days and two weeks. Fires of electrical origin broke out and could not be controlled (Kunz et al. 2013). e composite nature of the disaster is reflected in the report by Blake et al. (2013), which showed how the hurricane caused 72 fatalities in the USA, 41 of which were linked to the storm surge. At least 87 other losses of life were indirectly a ributable to the event in the United States, 50 of which were apparently related to the joint effect of extended power outages and cold weather. At least houses were damaged or destroyed and about 8.5 million customers lost power supply. Damages were estimates at more than 50 billion dollars. Sandy originated many subsidiary disasters that amplified the emergency as time progressed. e storm surge, and associated flood damage, can be considered as a secondary disaster generated by the hurricane, a er the direct effects of wind damage. e joint physical effects of storm surges and winds interacted with the vulnerability of critical infrastructures and generated subsidiary events. A major leak involved the Shell Oil and Saudi refining storage facility in Sewaren, where a large tank that ruptured under pressure from the storm allowed hectolitres of fuel to leak into the Arthur Kill waterway. Many wastewater treatment plants were affected, with the worst event at the Passaic Valley wastewater treatment plant in Newark, New Jersey, were 37 million hectoliters of untreated sewage flooded the bay. Disruption in communication infrastructures generated cascading effects on electronic trading and consequent global scale effects of the crisis as a whole (AON Benfield 2013). However, a subsidary crisis that become primary emergency is the severe energy-supply interruption generated by hurricane and surge:it required the direct a ention of President Obama from November 2 and the mobilization of all the instruments available, including ad hoc emergency purchases, oil reserves. All the levels of the production and distribution chain were heavily damaged, including substations, refineries and petroleum product supply such as terminals or strategic hub for petroleum delivery in New England, New York, and New Jersey (EIA 2012). Indeed, the area affected encompasses approximately 8 per cent of total refining capacity of the United States and disruptions were reflected in a reduction in shipments of gasoline and distillate, which in the post-storm period were respectively 54 per cent and 46 per cent below ordinary levels (AON Benfield 2013). e internal dependencies of energy chain amplified effects because infrastructure, such as pipelines, oil terminals, storage tanks and filling stations, could hardly function without a safe and constant energy supply (Comes and Van der Walle 2014). On 7 November, more than people were still without electricity, and on 9 November gas rationing started in New York City, Nassau and Suffolk (CNN 2014). Furthermore, other subsidary disasters were generated from the interaction between energy infrastructure and physical triggers. In many areas electrical grids were disrupted by high winds and fires were generated by live wires disrupted by the storm surge. Emergency workers were struck by weather condition, and the event was allowed to escalate. In the sole New York City, at least 21 fires developed, and they destroyed or damaged more than 200 homes and businesses (AON Benfield 2013). In conclusion, Sandy shows how the context can determine the structrure of the cascade in term of complexity, gravity and time propagation. e high concentration of critical infrastructrues in space created a large number of subsidiary emergencies, one of which in particular lasted smore than the physical trigger and contribute to raise the total amount life losses. Differently from Fukushima case, the vector of amplifiction was not a single structure of high rank and hazard but a diffused presence of medium high rank energy facilities interconnected among each others. In other words, Sandy joins togheter the cascading effects of floods to the ones reported in the North America Blackout of In conclusion, our case studies confirm that society is entering a new era that of global information, characterized by increasing interdependency, interconnectivity and complexity, and a life in which the real and digital world can no longer be separated. However, as interactions strengthen and consolidate, the behaviour of system components may seriously alter or impair the ability of other components to function. In this sense, typical properties of strongly coupled systems are: (a) dynamic changes tend to be fast, and can potentially outstrip the rate at which one can characterise system behaviour, or react to it; (b) one event can trigger further events, thereby creating amplification and cascading effects, which implies a large vulnerability to perturbations, variations or random failures. Cascade effects accompany transitions of system variables from a stable to an unstable state, thereby driving the system out of equilibrium; and (c) extreme events tend to occur more o en than would be expected if the distribution of all events were Gaussian. 5. Conclusion: A Coherent Definition of Cascading Effects and Disasters We have argued that cascading effects are common in disaster, as the chain of interaction can amplify the effects of an impact as it progresses through different states. is is corroborated by the dynamics of many widely differing events. Moreover, it seems to be correlated with two particular elements: the involvement of critical infrastructure that increases the cascade effect, and the spread of impacts in the light of pre-existing vulnerabilities that determine consequent failures. Hence: Cascading effects are the dynamics present in disasters, in which the impact of a physical event or the development of an initial technological or human failure generates

71 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March a sequence of events in human subsystems that result in physical, social or economic disruption. us, an initial impact can trigger other phenomena that lead to consequences with significant magnitudes. Cascading effects are complex and multi-dimensional and evolve constantly over time. ey are associated more with the magnitude of vulnerability than with that of hazards. Low-level hazards can generate broad chain effects if vulnerabilities are widespread in the system or not addressed properly in sub-systems. For these reasons, it is possible to isolate the elements of the chain and see them as individual (subsystem) disasters in their own right. In particular, cascading effects can interact with the secondary or intangible effects of disasters. In this definition, our view embraces the multidimensional and complex nature of cascades. e different possible failures that can generate chain effects are integrated, while progression and magnitude become important. As it provides a mechanism for spreading cascades in space and time, vulnerability is considered critical. is is related to the technique of isolating single effects and seeing them as possible autonomous causeeffect sequences, while in some events cascading effects coincide with secondary or intangible ones. However, a proper definition of cascading disasters should be employed to differentiate the various levels of cascading effects. Indeed, the eruption of the volcano Eyja allajökull, the Tōhoku earthquake of 2011, and Hurricane Sandy shows that amplification can acquire so much complexity that the main impact is associated or nearly to subsidiary events. On the basis of such evidence, we can offer the following definition of cascading disasters: Cascading disasters are extreme events, in which cascading effects increase in progression over time and generate unexpected secondary events of strong impact. ese tend to be at least as serious as the original event, and to contribute significantly to the overall duration of the disaster s effects. ese subsequent and unanticipated crises can be exacerbated by the failure of physical structures, and the social functions that depend on them, including critical facilities, or by the inadequacy of disaster mitigation strategies, such as evacuation procedures, land use planning and emergency management strategies. Cascading disasters tend to highlight unresolved vulnerabilities in human society. In cascading disasters one or more secondary events can be identified and distinguished from the original source of disaster. 6. A nowledgements is work has been carried out under the aegis of the EC FP7 FORTRESS project. FORTRESS is funded by the European Commission within FP7- Area Preparedness, prevention, mitigation and planning, TOPIC SEC SEC , Grant We wish to thank our partners at EDF for useful dialogue that helped us improve definitions. We are also grateful to our colleagues at the UCL Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction (UCL) for the precious feedback that they have given us. References Alexander, D. E. (1993): Natural Disasters, London: University College London Press/ Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Alexander, D. E. (2000) Confronting Catastrophe: New Perspectives on Natural Disasters, NewYork: Oxford University Press. Alexander, D.E. (2013): Volcanic ash in the atmosphere and risks for civil aviation: a study in European crisis management, International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 4(1): AON Benfield (2013): Hurricane Sandy Event Recap Report, AON Benfield Corporation, London. URL= (4 September 2014). Blake, E.S., Kimberlain T.B., Berg, R.J., Cangialosi J.P., Beven J.L. (2013): Tropycal Cyclone Report Hurricane Sandy (AL182012), October National Hurricane Centre, Miami, URL=Florida (4 September 2014). Comes, T. and B. Van de Walle (2014): Measuring disaster resilience: the impact of Hurricane Sandy on critical infrastructure systems, Proceedings of the Eleventh International IS- CRAM Conference, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA, May 2014: URL= (4 September 2014) CNN: Hurricane Sandy Facts URL= (4 September 2014). D Ercole, R. and P. Metzger (2009): Territorial vulnerability: a new approach of risks in urban areas, Cybergeo: European Journal of Geography, Dossiers, Vulnérabilités urbaines au sud, 447. URL = (accessed 11 July 2014). Ekengren, M., N. Matzen, M. Rhinard and M. Svantesson (2006): Solidarity or sovereignty? EU co-operation in civil protection, European Integration 28(5): Energy Information Administration (2012): New York/New Jersey Intra Harbour Petroleum Supplies Following Hurricane Sandy: Summary of Impacts rough November 13, URL= (4 September 2014)

72 66 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Encyclopaedia Britannica, URL= (7 October 2014). FEMA (2011): Unit 2: Hazard Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Assessment in Facilitator Guide. US Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, DC. (4 September 2014) FEMA (2013) Hurricane Sandy A er Event Report. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (4 September 2014) National Diet of Japan (2011): e Official Report of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission. Diet of Japan, Tokyo. URL= (4 September 2014) Franchina, L., M. Carbonelli, L. Gra a, M. Crisci and D. Perucchini (2011): An impact-based approach for the analysis of cascading effects in critical infrastructures, International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 7(1): Genserik, R. (2009): Man-made domino effect disasters in the chemical industry: the need for integrating safety and security in chemical clusters,disaster Advances, 2(2): 3-5. Helbing, H., C. Ammoser, and C. Kühnert (2005): Disasters as extreme events and the importance of network interactions for disaster response management, in: Albeverio,S.,Jentsch, V. and Kantz,H. (eds) e Unimaginable and Unpredictable: Extreme Events in Nature and Society, Springer, Berlin: Helbing, D. (2013): Globally networked risks and how to respond, Nature, 497: Hladny J., Kratka M., Kasparek L. (2004): August 2002 catastrophic flood in the Czech Republic. T.G. Masaryk Water Research Institute, Prague. URL= (4 September 2014) IPCC (2012): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. URL= (4 September 2014) Li le, R.G. (2002): Controlling cascading failure: understanding the vulnerabilities of interconnected infrastructures, Journal of Urban Technology 9(1): Kunz, M. B. Mühr, T. Kunz-Plapp, J.E. Daniell et al. (2013): Investigation of Superstorm Sandy 2012 in a multi-disciplinary approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13: Jha, A.K., T.W. Miner and Z. Stanton-Geddes (2013): Building Urban Resilience Principles. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, World Bank, Washington DC. (11 July 2014). May, F. (2007): Cascading Disaster Models in Postburn Flash Flood, in: Butler, B.W., Cook, W., e Fire Environment Innovations, Management and Policy; Conference Proceedings. US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Washington, DC: URL= (4 September 2014) NATO-Euro Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (2002 a): EADRCC Urgent Request for Assistance Floods/ Czech Republic. NATO, 14/08/ 2002 URL= (4 September 2014) NATO-Euro Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination (2002b): Centre EADRCC situation Report N.6 on the Flood/Czech Republic, NATO, 19/08/ URL= (4 September 2014) NATO-Euro Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre (2002c): EADRCC situation Report N. 8 on the Flood/Czech Republic, 21/08/2002 NATO, URL. (4 September 2014) National Diet of Japan (2012): e Official Report of the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission, Executive Summary. e National Diet of Japan, Tokio. (11 July 2014). Oxford English Dictionary, (7 October 2014). Peters, K., L. Buzna and D. Helbing (2008): Modelling of cascading effects and efficient response to disaster spreading in complex networks, International Journal of Critical Infrastructures 4(1-2): Smith, K. and D. Petley (2009): Environmental Hazards. Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster (5th edn). New York: Routledge. UNISDR (2009): UNISDR terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland. (1 July 2014). United States -Canada Power System Outage Task Force (2004): Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations. U.S. Department of Energy and Minister of Natural Resources, Canada. (9 October 2014) UNDHA (1992): Internationally Agreed Glossary of Basic Terms Related to Disaster Management. United Nations Department of Humanitarian Affairs, Geneva, Switzerland. (11 July 2014).

73 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Citation Pescaroli, G. and Alexander, D. (2015): A definition of cascading disasters and cascading effects: Going beyond the toppling dominos metaphor. In: Planet@Risk, 2(3): 58-67, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

74 68 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 e Green Dam in Algeria as a tool to combat desertification SAIFI, Merdas a, BOULGHOBRA, Nouar a and FATTOUM, Lakhdari a a Division of desertification monitoring, Centre for Scientific and Technical Research on Arid Regions, Biskra, Algeria, saifieco@gmail.com Abstract Desertification is a major risk that threatens the arid and semi arid regions throughout the globe. With continued population growth, desertification exacerbates while natural areas regress as a result of rapid urbanization, increase of cultivated land areas, overgrazing, and deforestation. is adds to the effects of climate change. Algeria as many countries is not safe from this risk. Indeed, agronomists and ecologists report that Alfa grass cover has reduced while the quality of the grasslands itself is becoming increasingly degraded. To tackle this serious risk, the Algerian authorities developed the Green Dam project as a massive reforestation program aiming to safeguard and to develop of the pre-saharan areas. Keywords Desertification risk, Green Dam in Algeria 1. Introduction According to the UNCCD, the recurring droughts and human activities, mainly overgrazing are the two main driving factors of desertification (Le Houérou, 1996). It is widely recognized that desertification is a serious threat to arid and semiarid environments which cover 40% of the global land surface and are populated by approximately 1 billion humans (Verón, Paruelo, & Oesterheld, 2006). Of the 238 million hectares that make the total land area of Algeria, 200 million are natural deserts, 20 million represent the steppe regions threatened by desertification, and 12 million are mountainous areas threatened by water erosion. e sensitivity map of desertification shows that 7 million hectares of the 20 steppe regions are highly susceptible to desertification and require a short-term intervention. Several natural factors like, decrease in rainfall, high thermal amplitude, dry winds, combined with anthropogenic factors like, cultivation, mechanization, overgrazing, deforestation, accelerate desertification process. In face of such risk, the Algerian state initiated the reforestation activities since independence in Figure 1: Localization of the Green Dam. 2. e Green Dam e Green Dam initiative became clearer in the 60s with the rapid degradation of Alfa grass steppe that resulted from overgrazing and cultivation activities. Figure 2: Green Dam reforestation with Aleppo pine in the locality of El Hamel.

75 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e implementation of this vast project started in early 70 s and extends from the western to the eastern borders of Algeria, the scope of action of the Green Dam consists of the pre-saharan area between isohyets 300 millimeters in the North and 200 millimeters to the South (Bensaid, 2005) (Figure 1, 2), covering an area of 1500 km by 20 km on the average, or 3 million hectares e role of Green Dam e main objective of the Green Dam is to combat desertification. A er a few years of implementation, the program turned into a big multi-sector project, including: e protection and enhancement of existing forest resources e recovery of missing forest stand Reforestation e development of agricultural and pastoral land e fight against sand encroachment and for dune fixation Resource mobilization in surface and groundwater e improvement of accessibility to desertification prone areas Main steps of Realization e program of Green Dam has experienced four distinct stages: From 1970 to 1982, soil restoration and protection Groups (SRPG) were formed and assigned to the military regions in a way to cover the entire area of the Green Dam. us between 1970 and 1979, seven (07) Groups of the National Service (GNS) were formed. Following an evaluation of the GNS between 1979 and 1982 that aimed to address the problems pertaining to the forestry sector, groups of forestry (GF) were formed within the GNS. During that period emphasis was put on reforestation and infrastructures, the reforestation were carried out by the Aleppo pine. From 1982 to 1990, an inter-ministerial agreement brought the project owner (ex: State Secretary of Forests) and the project implementer (High Commission of National Service) to cooperate, with clear separate roles, pertaining of the organization, control, financing and protection of the forest heritage. A er an evaluation of the achievements of this period, gaps were gradually overcome and improvements were made, by the diversification of restoration activities (opening tracks, protection against soil erosion) and species (Cypress, Acacia, Atriplex). From 1990 to 1993 the Department of Defense withdrew from the Green Dam project, leaving the totality of its implementation to the National Forestry Agency. From 1994 to 2000 the Government revived the Green Dam project with the launching in November 1994 of a new program Achievements e major achievements were a ained with reforestation activities, by Aleppo pine in sensitive areas: e rehabilitation of some ha of degraded forest areas of the Saharan Atlas; e protection of villages and socio-economic infrastructures against silting through dune fixation and the planting of greenbelts over some 5000 ha; Management of pastoral plantations, totaling ha, to increase feed availability; e protection of populations by establishing monitoring networks over 5000 km; e establishment of 90 water sources to improve potable water availability for the populations. ese achievements have been strengthened by the rural development programs which objectives are to protect natural resources and to improve the livelihood of the local people National Action Plan and multi-institutional cooperation e National Action Plan (NAP) against desertification which describes the main institutional arrangements for the implementation of the various management and restoration programs was validated on 14/12/2003;. e NAP comprises the following twelve (12) actions (DGF, 2004): Action Poverty alleviation and livelihood improvement Fight against silting Soil erosion control Fight against deforestation Table 1: Actions of the NAP Links with national programs National Water Program National Agricultural Development Program National Action Program for Environment and Sustainable Development National Action Program for Environment and Sustainable Development National Reforestation Program National Agricultural Development Program National Water Program National Reforestation Program National Agricultural Development Program

76 70 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 continued from previous page 3. Conclusion Action Land protection and conservation Watershed protection and sustainable development of mountain Grassland management and mitigation of drought m effects Capacity building in natural resource protection and in improving access to water Support for Research and Technological Development Monitoring System and drought warning Development of a participatory approach Links with national programs National Action Program for Environment and Sustainable Development National Reforestation Program National Agricultural Development Program National Water Program National Action Program for Environment and Sustainable Development National Reforestation Program National Agricultural Development Program National Agricultural Development Program National Water Program National Agricultural Development Program Centre for Scientific and Technical Research in the Dry Areas National Meteorology Office Algerian Space Agency National Agency of Water resources Local and national associations Despite the achievements and the continued implementation of the Green Dam project with respect to the protection of the ecosystem, the rest of the territory under threat remains large. is would necessitate more efforts with more emphasis on restoration activities. e participation of local populations in development programs should be a key to successful project implementation. Algerian authorities are knowledgeable as programs are developed and implemented, and the laws are enacted accordingly. Despite all of these important efforts and experience, the magnitude of the phenomenon remains a big challenge. erefore, appropriate management strategies of the risk of desertification and silting should continue to be researched and implemented. For a successful implementation of this type of projects we would recommend the following measures: To increase the participation of local populations in the decisions making processes, particularly when the use and management of fragile ecosystems are concerned. To increase awareness on the values of biodiversity and on its global significance in arid and semi-arid areas as in accordance to the Convention on Biological Diversity. To strengthen inter-institutional partnership on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. To increase partnerships between institutions in southern Algeria and strengthen their ability to develop and implement successful programs on the protection of biodiversity. References NAP actions are part of the general policy of the Planning. ey concern three sensitive ecosystems, including (1) steppes (rangelands) where most of the rehabilitation activities take place under the responsibility of the High Commission for the Development of steppe, (2) mountains which management is the specialty of the Forest Conservation Service, and (3) Sahara where emphasis is put on biological diversity issues. Several scientific works have been done and published (Mostephaoui et al 2013, Salemkour et al 2013, Kherief Nacereddine et al 2013), demonstrating the importance of National Research Program (NRP 34) in the whole system. About 34 research projects have enabled us to achieve important results in the fight against desertification. ese include steppe ecosystem models and monitoring and evaluation so ware. Several research projects are being conducted by local universities and research centers on the risks of desertification and silting, with some focusing on evaluating the Green Dam. Mostephaoui. T, Merdas. S, Sakaa. B, Hanafi. M. T, and Benazzouz. M. T. (2013): Cartographie des risques d érosion hydrique par l application de l Equation universelle de pertes en sol à l aide d un Système d Information Géographique dans le bassin versant d El Hamel (Boussaâda). Journal Algérien des Régions Arides, Numéro Spécial, 12: Salemkour.N, Benchouk. K, Nouasria.D, Chefrour.A, Hamou.K, Amechkouh.A, and Belhamra. m. (2013): Effets de la mise en repos sur les caractéristiques floristiques et pastorales des parcours steppiquesde la région de Laghouat (Algérie). Journal Algérien des Régions Arides, Numéro Spécial, 12: Kherief Nacereddine.S, Nouasria.D, Salemkour.N, Benchouk. K, and Belhamra.M. (2013): La mise en repos: une technique de gestion des parcours steppiques). Journal Algérien des Régions Arides, Numéro Spécial, 12: Direction Générale des Forêts (DGF). (2004): Rapport national de l Algérie sur la mise en oeuvre de la Convention de Lu e Contre la Désertification. Le Houérou, H. N. (1996): Climate change, drought and desertification. Journal of Arid Environments, 34:

77 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Verón, S. R., Paruelo, J. M., & Oesterheld, M. (2006). Assessing desertification. Journal of Arid Environments, 66(4), doi: /j.jaridenv Bensaid, S. (2005). Bilan critique du barrage vert en Algérie. Sécheresse, 6: URL (13 October 2014) Citation Saifi, M., Boulghobra, N. and Fa oum, L. (2015): e Green Dam in Algeria as a tool to combat desertification. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 68-71, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

78 72 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Sand encroa ment in the Saharan Algeria; the not declared disaster - Case study: In-Salah region in the Tidikelt BOULGHOBRA, Nouar a,b, SAIFI, Merdas a and FATTOUM, Lakhdari a a Scientific and technical research center on the arid regions CRSTRA, Biskra 07000, Algeria b Earth sciences department, sciences faculty, university of El Hadj Lakhdar, Batna 05000, Algeria s: ; ; Abstract As a major natural risk, sand encroachment in the Tidikelt is a ributable to the physical and climatic context of the region, but the continued population pressure on this arid system already subjected to climatic extremes, has increased the vulnerability to risks. is led to heavy damages on human, agricultural and other socio-economic activities. By use of remote sensing, mobile dunes were monitored over 19 years, and this showed continued migration of the dunes that complicates the resilience capacity of the local communities, calling for imperative awareness activities towards the populations and the authorities in order to enable an efficient and sustainable development. Keywords remote sensing, Landsat, sand encroachment, mobile dunes, Tidikelt, Algeria 1. Introduction According to the United Nations (UNCCD, 2004), more than one billion people worldwide, most of them among the poorest are affected by drought and desertification. ese people who occupy about one quarter of the planet are facing major problems, including soil degradation and vegetation loss, that contribute to chronic food insecurity (Ismat, 2004: 1). Algerian territory includes large arid and semi-arid areas under to desertification threat; While 20 million ha land area is being threatened by wind erosion, some other 5 million ha are already in an advanced state of degradation (Bensaid, 2006: 6). ese spaces are parts of the 200 million ha wide Algerian Sahara that makes 80 % of the Algerian territory and which highly prone to desertification and land degradation; the core causes of increased wind erosion and risk to sand encroachment. A consequence of desertification, sand encroachment is said to take place when grains of sand are carried by winds until they collect on the coastal area, along water streams or over cultivated or uncultivated lands. As the sand dunes move, they bury agglomerations, roads, oases, crops, market gardens, irrigation channels and dams, thus causing major material and socioeconomic damages (FAO, 2010: 15). e physical and climate context of In-Salah (southern Algerian Sahara) region favors wind erosion, considerably (figure 1). As all human and socio-economic installations in the region are located downwind of dynamic dune system, they stand as the only barriers against the dune movement and so, are frequently sanded (Boulghobra et all, 2014: 1). is article highlights the physical, climatic and anthropogenic causes of sand encroachment in the region, along with the diachronic remote sensing monitoring of the mobile dunes in the study area. e experimental approach is based on the bi-temporal analysis of two optical medium resolution images: the ematic Mapper (TM) image of 1987 and the Enhanced ematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) of e la er were used to map the dynamics of mobile dunes and its impacts on the agglomerations, the agricultural land and the socio economic infrastructures.

79 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March which wind can perform such actions as abrading, transportation and accumulation. Especially as north-east prevailing and effective wind is being the same as the direction of the plain elongation, the agglomerations located downstream are greatly endangered (figure 2). Figure 1: Location map of the study area based on the TM Landsat image of september Green color in the trichromie RGB:541 corresponds to date palms and yellow color to sand cover 2. Causes of Sand Encroa ment in Salah Factors leading to sand encroachment in the Tidikelt can be divided into two categories: natural and anthropogenic Physical and climatic context Topography In-Salah and neighboring agglomerations belong to the Tidikelt dune system; this uniform topographic depression is located in a natural corridor and is dominated north and south by the Tademaït plateau. is position favors wind concentration and increases the wind velocity Lithology and soil state Highly prone to wind erosion, existing lithological formations ( aternary, dunes and late Cretaceous) have given rise to mobile, dry and crushed soils (coarse textured, rich in fine sands and poor in clay and organic ma er), increasing wind corrosiveness and sand load capacity Climate Characteristically, Tidikelt plain endures a hyper arid climate, owed to continental position of the Algerian Sahara and to low air humidity. Rainfall remains very low with increased spatiotemporal variations. Inter-annual and intra-annual maximums are 31.7 mm and 8 mm, respectively. Also, the Tidikelt plain is among the ho est regions of Algeria, the warm season lasting beyond 6 months with temperatures exceeding 45 in July. As insolation may extend over 3000 hours/year, while relative humidity is low (26.1 %), contributing to lands degradation and increased wind erosive efficiency. Central Algerian Sahara (Adrar, In-Salah and Timimoune) is the windiest area in Algeria (Kasbadji Merzouk, 1999: 4). Wind speed averages 5 m/s to above 8 m/s with about 7% of the winds exceeding 11 m/s, a threshold at Figure 2: Wind rose of In-Salah station based on 34 years data range ( ); directional frequencies highlight the unimodal wind regime of the region, as well the trade wind (north-east) is the main factor of dunes migration (figure taken from the ncdc noaa website, 2013) Vegetation state Vegetation cover preserves the soil from wind erosion as it retains soil particles, and reduces wind impact on the soil. erefore, reduced soil vegetation cover (sparse, stunted or non-existent woodland, bushland or grassland) in arid and semi-arid regions greatly exposes the soil to wind erosion (FAO, 2010: 17). In the Tidikelt, the climatic and edaphic conditions do not encourage plant growth and development; however, spontaneous plants such as Tamarix Gallica, Tamarix Articulata, Zygophyllum Album and Aristida Pyngens, may be found in the wadi s beds, yet in densities too insignificant to help mitigate wind erosive activity Anthropogenic effect and the man-made disaster e availability of fresh water sources on the Tidikelt explains the human colonization of the region even before of sanding risk. Over time, human activities favored the establishment of the dune system, and therefore, aggravated the vulnerability, as the region was already subjected to an important wind dynamics. Human intervention can be summarized as: Urban extension into the high-risk zones; Construction of buildings perpendicular to the wind direction and creation of barriers (figure 3, 4); Use of inappropriate techniques of sand dune fixation;

80 74 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Selection of inappropriate sites for se lement (accumulation sectors instead of the sand source sectors) (figure 5). Figure 3: Impermeable construction, perpendicular to the wind direction (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) 3. Sand Encroa ment Monitoring Using Remote Sensing Te nology e diachronic monitoring of sand encroachment in the tidikelt required the processing of multitemporal Landsat 5 and 7 images, produced on March 3, 1987 and April 13, 2005, respectively. ese images were remotely sensed with TM and ETM + sensors over a period of 19 years. Landsat satellite was used because of its medium spatial resolution of images (30 m) that enables analysis on a regional scale. Images were selected in regard of their availability, their quality and their spectral resolution. After a preprocessing, these images were classified, using both the supervised mode, and the maximum likelihood method. A er the various stages of post classification (combining, clumping and sieving land-cover classes, and validation of the classification using the confusion matrix), a static map and a dynamic map (by overlaying) of mobile dunes layer vectors were developed for each Landsat image, to show the evolution of the mobile dunes from 1987 to Results show that mobile dunes of Erg Sidi Moussa migrate in the direction of the effective winds and se le on the eastern sides of all oases and agglomerations, covering large areas in the region that increased from 22.9 km² in 1987, to 25.8 km² in 2005 (Figure 6). is is particularly observable in In-Salah which is the most vulnerable agglomeration. is phenomenon results mainly from anterior climate factors that favored the sand dynamics, the decrease in relative humidity (26.9 to 25.9 %) and the increase in temperature (25.9 to 26.5 ), making the soils drier and more erodible. Additionally, the increase maximum wind speed (6.4 to 9.4 m/s) accentuated the wind sand transport capacity, considerably (Table 1). Figure 4: Permeable construction: Even across the wind direction, permeable constructions prevent sand accumulation; 1, 2 and 3 on the photograph corresponds to vacuums. ey allow winds loaded with sand to pass freely and thus, prevent accumulation, Adrar, Algeria (Photo by CRSTRA, 2012) Table 1: Parameters for measuring in In-Salah mobile dune dynamics (Boulghobra, 2014: 8) Parameters 1973 to to 2005 Mobile dunes area (km²) 22.9 (1987) 25.8 (2005) Relative humidity (%) Temperatures (oc) Maximum wind speed (m/s) Figure 5: An unsuccessful greenbelt resulting from lack of irrigation (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) Figure 6: Progressive dynamics of the mobile dunes in In-Salah region, 1987 to 2005 (map by Boulghobra, 2014)

81 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Consequences of the Sand Encroa ment Disaster in the Tidikelt Plain Data on loss estimate as cause by sand encroachment in In-Salah are not available. However, our field investigations provide indications of the extent the disaster. ese include losses of several hectares of date palm plantations, roads damages, dozens of buried residences and dislodged families, and many abandoned schools and administrative buildings (figure 7 - figure 10). Preventive efforts have not been successful, as many contributed to even aggravate the problem because of a lack of technical support for the establishment appropriate protective barriers and for human se lement. Figure 9: Sanding of a house under-construction in In-Salah (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) Figure 7: Sanding of a date palm plantation in In-Salah (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) Figure 10: Sanded road in Igostene (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) 5. Conclusion Sand encroachment in Algeria and especially the Tidikelt is due to the natural operation of the dune system. However, urbanization with the construction of industrial structures, housing, and various infrastructures add to agricultural activities to exacerbate vulnerability, particularly in high-risk areas. e monitoring of sand dynamics reveals the spatiotemporal progression of sand dunes towards the agglomerations and socio-economic installations. Undoubted, this will lead to a serious disaster in the future. Efforts to control the phenomenon still remain ineffective, as aeolian processes are complex and poorly documented, and sand encroachment projects are implemented in non- participatory ways. Figure 8: Sanded school in In-Salah (Photo by Boulghobra, 2013) 6. Recommendations We would recommend that: An emphasis be put on awareness improvement of both the populations and authorities;

82 76 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Existing control installations be maintained while encouraging the application of effective control techniques upstream of the dune system; e population be integrated into the implementation of all encroachment programs; Land use be legislated in a way to facilitate the planning of local development and to mitigate damages. References Bensaid, A. (2006) : SIG et télédétection pour l étude de l ensablement dans une zone aride : le cas de la wilaya de Naâma (Algérie), Université Es-Senia-Oran, UJF et laboratoire espace géographique et aménagement du territoire. 318p. Bodart, C. & Ozer, A. (2009) : Apports de la télédétection dans l étude de la remise en mouvement du sable dunaire dans la région de Gouré (sud-est du Niger), Geo-Eco-Trop., 2009(33) : Boulghobra, N., Hadri, T., Bouhana, M. (2014): Using Landsat imagery for monitoring the spatiotemporal evolution of sanding in dryland, the case of In-Salah in the Tidikelt (southern Algerian Sahara), Geographia Technica, 9(5): 1-9. El Hassan, IM. (2004): Desertification monitoring using remote sensing technology, e International conf. on water resources and arid environment, 1/2004: FAO, (2010) : Lu e contre l ensablement l exemple de la mauritanie, étude FAO: forêts 158, organisation des nations unies pour l alimentation et l agriculture, Rome, 89p. (7 may 2013) Kasbadji Merzouk, N. (1999) : Carte des vents de l Algérie - résultats préliminaires -, revue des énergies renouvelables : valorisation (1999) : Mckee, ED. (1979) : A study of global sand seas, geological survey professional paper, united states government printing office, washington. 439p. Mesbahzadeh, T. & Ahmadi, H. (2014) : Sand Movement Pa erns in Southern Iran, Desert 19(1) : Mainguet, M., Dumay, F., Ould Elhacen ML. & Georges, JC. (2008) : Changement de l état de surface des ergs au nord de Nouakcho ( ), conséquences sur la désertification et l ensablement de la capitale, revue Géomorphologie : relief, processus, environnement (2008)3 : Oulehri, T. (1992) : Étude géodynamique des migrations de sables éoliens dans la région de laayoune (nord du sahara marocain), universite paris 6, thèse de doctorat en sedimentologie, 225p. Citation Boulghobra, N., Merdas, S. and Lakhdari, F. (2015): Sand encroachment in the Saharan Algeria; the not declared disaster - Case study: In-Salah region in the Tidikelt. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 72-76, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

83 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Urban Resilience Case Study in Singapore SIEBER, Jeanne e, FREMGEN, Leonie and PONS, Manon EIFER European Institute for Energy Research, Karlsruhe, Germany, Abstract Within urban development research, the benefits derived from so-called ecosystem services (ES) should be taken into account. To valuate ES, different methods are applicable, such as Cost-Benefit Analysis and/or Geographical Information System (GIS) based approaches. In 2012, the World Resources Institute published a manual for businesses to account for ES called Ecosystem Services Review (ESR). erein, a five-step process is illustrated for the assessment of impacts and dependencies. To achieve an integrated evaluation for cities, we conduct a modified Urban- ESR in Singapore as a case study. e expected outcomes are both qualitative and quantitative values, displayed either in GIS with maps as main output or as tables for decision-support. Keywords Ecosystem Service Review, GIS-based assessment, Urban Development 1. Introduction 1.1. General Introduction to Ecosystem Services In the past years, research topics like urban sprawl, ecosystem services and sustainable food, water and energy supply have gained interest in the light of a changing climate and reductions in global biodiversity. With regard to a continuously increasing number of people in fast expanding cities, so-called urban services and ecosystem services may see limitations and need to be subject to further examination. Urban areas are characterized by the fastest expansion rate compared to all other land use types. By now, more than half of the global population lives in cities and urban areas which account for about 3 % of the global land area, making them the main consumers of ecosystem services. e term Ecosystem Services (ES) refers to the benefits people obtain from ecosystems (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). at is, the environment supplies the inhabitants of cities with four types of ES (see Table 1): Table 1: Four types of ecosystem services. e supporting services underlie each of the other categories as the basic services that ecosystems can supply (according to Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). Provisioning Services, e.g. food, water, raw materials and energy Regulating Services, e.g. carbon sequestration, climate regulation, air and water purification, waste decomposition Cultural Services, e.g. scientific discovery, recreation, ecotourism Supporting Services e.g. nutrient cycle, primary production, soil formation Within the resilience debate, cities are regarded as made of complex systems or even as a system of systems (e.g. Revi et al., 2014; Gómez-Baggethun et al., 2013). ese systems include amongst others food and water supply systems, the energy system and other key economic sectors. erefore, in urban design and safety, flood management or air quality improvement - both being regulating services - are challenges to be tackled. Besides these technical aspects, the supply side of food, water and energy with regard to provisioning services is crucial in urban environments. e aforementioned resources are usually provided by the surrounding areas. While cities are thus dependent on global, regional and local ecosystem services for survival, they also largely benefit from internal urban ecosystem services (Bolund and Hunhammar, 1999; Breuste, Haase & Elmqvist, 2013). ES

84 78 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 provision can be substantial within urban areas as they host a number of ecosystem processes, which deliver services for human well-being. Such locally generated ES include air quality regulation or recreational opportunities. Continuing ecosystem degradation and loss of agricultural and natural landscapes will exert greater pressure on the urban environment to provide such ecological, productive and cultural functions. Such changes to the pa ern of urban landscapes may fundamentally influence both biodiversity and human well-being. Climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as resilience are thus further topics to be merged into the concept of sustainable (urban) development Introduction to the Ecosystem Services Reviews Developed by the World Resources Institute (WRI), the Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is an integrated framework designed to complement standard environmental and social impact assessments. In 2012, the WRI set up a concept on how to proceed in a valuation for businesses (World Resources Institute (WRI) et al., 2012). Originally developed for the corporate sector, the so-called corporate ESR enables the identification of priority ES on different spatial scales and the subsequent determination of risks, opportunities, costs and benefits of measures to address ES. e ESR fills the gap of traditional assessment approaches, which do not generally account for the project s impact on ecosystem service provision. e structured methodology is seen as a guide for practitioners to integrate ecosystem services and by this, manage dependencies on ecosystems and mitigate impacts on ecosystem service benefits. e adapted ESR tool was further developed from this corporate ES review and can be applied to urban and suburban se ings alike. e focus herein lies on managed landscapes within the urban environment. e publicly available spreadsheets can be easily used to describe ecosystem service impacts qualitatively. e excel-based assessment is typically conducted by landscape managers, landscape sustainability initiatives or local environmental regulating bodies, in close collaboration with relevant stakeholders and decision-makers (Ozment et al., 2013). Several outputs are generated through an ESR (Landsberg et al., 2013): List of ecosystem services, for inclusion in the ESR terms of reference; Identification of priority ecosystem services to be considered and stakeholders to be engaged in further stages of the ESR process, for inclusion in the ESR report; Assessment of project impacts and dependencies on priority ecosystem services, for inclusion in the ESR report. Only ecosystem services that decision-makers can directly control or influence are considered. ese include services, whose impacts may adversely affect human wellbeing, as well as services upon whose provision the policy or project directly depends TEEB Manual for Cities as a Basis With regard to the above described challenges for and in cities, the TEEB Manual for Cities (TEEB - e Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, 2011) highlights the analyses of ES as vital for sustainable development. erein, a valuation approach that includes monetary, quantitative and qualitative values is described. e manual distinguishes between the four types of ecosystem services as proposed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005) and provides numerous city examples. Following this general introduction, the TEEB Manual follows a stepwise approach for decision making in cities combining a classical management approach with a focus on ecosystem services and local challenges. To perform such a valuation, a set of methods (e.g. Cost-Benefit Analysis, SWOT Analysis, GIS-based approaches) may be used. For the conduction of an Urban-ESR in Singapore, the decision was made to combine the two approaches of a Corporate-ESR as established by the WRI with the city-based approaches described in the TEEB Manual for Cities. An integration of the two approaches is now elaborated in more detail in the following sections referring to the city of Singapore as a case study. us, Section 2 deals with the methodology from the Corporate-ESR to the Urban-ESR and highlights the steps (1) of prioritizing ecosystem services in a city and (2) of assessing the aforementioned priority services with GISbased tools. Section 3 follows with the GIS-based localization and analysis of the priority services of Aesthetic ality, Recreation, Carbon Storage and Food and Fresh Water Supply. By connecting the Urban-ESR of Singapore with the local green plan and the goals to become a sustainable garden city, the aim to implement the assessment into future planning options and decisions is articulated. In Section 4, the preliminary results are discussed and chances for future transferability are shown. e following Section 5 highlights questions on the added value for the post-2015 framework and how Urban-ESR might be implemented into the discussion. 2. Methodology 2.1. From the corporate ESR to the Urban-ESR Based on the ESR and the approach described in the TEEB Manual for Cities, a methodological framework in five steps to optimize ES provision within cities and improve cities sustainability was first developed in is method has been adapted to practical implementation in 2013 (see Figure 1). Since the scope of the study is set to the cities boundaries, the proposed framework starts with the identification and analysis of the priority ES for a city. A er the identification of the adapted measures to enhance the priority ES, different scenarios have to be proposed corresponding to a bundle of adapted measures. For each sce-

85 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: e process of an Ecosystem Services Review (ESR). Le column: Corporate-ESR according to WRI (2008/2012), center column: Urban-ESR as developed by EIFER in 2012, right column: methodological enhancement according to EIFER since 2014 (Sieber & Fremgen, 2014) nario, cost-benefit analyses should be conducted. e final aim consists in maximizing social benefits, improving ecosystem functioning and minimizing municipal costs. e basic improvements of the Urban-ESR in contrast to the corporate ESR are the extensive use of GIS-based tools for localization approaches as well as the constant involvement of stakeholders and decision-makers from the interviews and questionnaire to the scenario building to the final implementation. Moreover, the rough concept of the corporate ESR is enhanced by tools and methods especially effectual for urban environments. To maintain and promote the provision of ES in the city, urban planning documents are fundamental because they define green infrastructures (both biodiversity reservoirs and ecological connections). Of course, other tools are also available, such as incentives to develop green roofs and walls. In some cases (such as Singapore) with extremely high density, combined with a rate of urbanization of 100 %, and an objective of high quality of life, the ES approach could help fulfil environmental ambitions Using questionnaire and results, including prioritization e first step of an Urban-ESR includes the conduction of interviews or questionnaires in order to prioritize the most important ES. e concept of the ESR was used as it is a low-cost scoping tool and provides a good entry point for further mapping and localization of ecosystem services. User-friendliness of the rather extensive excel spreadsheets was improved through condensing the most important questions within a single more accessible web-based questionnaire. e questionnaire used in this case study assessed the immediate and long-term interdependences between urban development projects, ecosystems, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being. In the process, 40 different institutions were contacted, among them the universities of Singapore, several ministries and NGOs. e contacted individuals were chosen due to their familiarity with biodiversity conservation, urban development, urban planning or ecosystem services in Singapore. In total, seven questionnaires returned completely filled giving a quota of 17.5 %. In the questionnaire, each of the respondents was asked to give scores on the impact and dependence scales. Both scales each assign four values ranged from high significance (3) to no significance (0) and high impact (3) to no impact (0), respectively. e final value of each ecosystem service is thus a weighted total, ranking ecosystem services according to their overall significance. Given the number of seven responses, the maximum total value that can be placed on the services is 21. Based on the responses, the most important ecosystem services for the case of Singapore are identified. For the sake of further prioritization, it was considered that the set of urban ecosystem services chosen comprised the most important services regarding Singapore and provided a manageable number of services to assess, while still representing each of the four categories. It is important to note that although certain ecosystem services were prioritized to produce a more detailed review, this does not necessarily mean that those ecosystem services which were ranked lower by stakeholders are of no importance for humans. However, Singapore is nonetheless set apart by certain local characteristics which should become visible in the course of this analysis, hence the focus on specific ecosystem services GIS-based assessments including the use of InVEST e Integrated Valuation for Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) tool, which was developed by the Nature Capital Project, enables the assessment of ecological production and subsequent economic valuation. In- VEST consists of several open source models to map and evaluate ecosystem services through ArcGIS (Tallis et al., 2013). e tool is amenable to widespread use and can be independently applied to monitor environmental

86 80 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 changes or the provision of ecosystem services (Bagstad et al., 2013). However, the generalizability and time requirements may vary greatly with regard to the availability of underlying data. e model outputs are improved with the amount and quality of spatial data inputs. Compared with other valuation tools, InVEST is extensively used in peer reviewed literature. e InVEST carbon sequestration tool is applied to estimate the amount of carbon stored or sequestered in a landscape over time. InVEST measures the social value of carbon storage and sequestration, which equals avoided social damage associated with carbon release to the atmosphere. By aggregating the amount of stored carbon in four carbon pools (namely, aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil and dead organic ma er), the model is able to estimate the net amount of stored carbon and market and social values of sequestered carbon. e InVEST aesthetic quality tool produces view shed maps to determine the visual footprint of near- or offshore development. Such development projects may affect the visual appeal of natural seascapes. e generated maps may then identify coastal areas that are most likely affected. e recreation tool is able to estimate the spread of person-days of recreation. In the absence of visitation rates, geo-tagged photographs posted to the website flickr were used as proxy indicator. Further necessary data inputs include the locations of natural features, such as urban parks, and other recreational sites as well as of built features and environmental conditions. farms. At present, about ten percent of the country is green space, half of which is nature reserves. Park connectors serve as greenways, which link nature reserves, urban parks, open spaces and other points of interests to improve access thereof. Aside from enhanced accessibility, this green matrix creates refuge corridors for birdlife and other fauna. In total, the island state is home to more than 2800 hectares of parks, 2656 hectares of roadside greenery and 3347 hectares of nature reserves. In terms of per capita provision, Singapore s green cover and park provision ratio lies at a low to moderate level in international comparison (Tan et al., 2013). e following Figure 2 shows an overview of Singapore including park connector loops and cycling paths, green areas like parks and forest, blue water areas and pink buildings. Dark green dots indicate skyrise greenery, light green dots represent locations of community gardening, additionally, brown dots symbolize heritage trees. 3. Case Study 3.1. General Introduction In the following, the case study for the Urban-ESR in Singapore is described in more detail. A er the prioritization of the most important ecosystem services in Singapore, connection is made to the local green plan and the goals of Singapore to become and be the garden city. An investigation of the indicators underlining the local green program and label, the priority ecosystem services of Aesthetic ality, Recreation, Carbon Storage and Food and Fresh Water Supply are localized and analyzed with the help of GIS-based tools. e island state of Singapore covers an area of approximately 71,240 ha, a er having seen many expansion plans. In the process, the built-up area has doubled between 1965 and 2000, while forest and agricultural land has decreased (Singapore Department of Statistics, 2013). Singapore has replaced its native vegetation with a comparably large amount of managed urban vegetation and as li le as 0.28 % of the original land area has remained intact. Only about 0.5 % of the total land area is devoted to agricultural use. e number of licensed farms is diminishing, also mirroring the declining total farming area. e total area of farm land (including farms, farmland, farmyard and fish farms) amounts to only 0.08 hectares. Managed habitats are thus an important feature in Singapore s green landscapes, including roadside plantings, public urban parks, community gardens, golf courses or Figure 2: Overview Map of Singapore, data for the display was derived from the Singaporean Government and Open Street Map (OSM) (see data reference section for full record) 3.2. Investigation of indicators and factors underlining the local green program and label Singapore has in the past years placed great emphasis on environmentally-friendly urban development, which is reflected in several governmental policies. A wide variety of measures have been implemented to maintain and even enhance its environmental sustainability. Singapore calls itself the Garden City and has even called for the transformation towards a City in a Garden (Ministry of National Development Singapore, 2013). e Singapore Green Plan, issued in 1992, was the country s first formal environmental blueprint. Besides the Green Plan, Singapore has developed both a Concept Plan and a Master Plan. In 2009, the continuation of Singapore s sustainable development strategy through 2030 was launched as the Sustainable Singapore Blueprint (Inter-Ministerial Commi ee on Sustainable Development, 2009). Along with ministerial frameworks, the Singapore

87 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Housing and Development Board (HDB) launched the socalled Greenprint framework in is framework should foster green urban development and create sustainable homes. It is targeted at three levels: building green neighborhoods, upgrading to green flats and forming green communities (Government of Singapore, 2012). e web-based ESR questionnaire aimed to assess the immediate and long-term interdependences between urban development projects, ecosystems, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being and to distinguish between priority and non-priority ecosystem services in the case of Singapore. e prioritized ES correspond to several initiatives taken in the Greenprint program in Singapore (Government of Singapore 2012). e following table contrasts the priority ecosystem services according to the questionnaire with undertaken actions in the local Greenprint plan by Singapore s Housing and Development Board. e provision of food is represented by the initiatives of Community Engagement as well as the Landscaping and Greenery program while fresh water provision corresponds to the Water Conservation aspect. e regulating services air quality regulation and waste water treatment are regarded as parts of the Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change and Waste Management respectively. e habitat service is best described in the Community Gardening program while the cultural services of aesthetic quality and recreation fall into the aspects of Greener Living, Landscaping and Greenery and Community Gardening. is comparison again shows the close connection between different aspects and programs since Community Gardening and Landscaping and Greenery cover at least two different ES. One significant program relates to the greening of roo ops and also vertical greenery of facades. is is the most prominent example for the complementarity of ES as it leads to cooling of buildings, increased habitats, increased pollination within a city, rainwater retention and as in the case of Singapore o en offers recreation options as well as urban gardening opportunities Localization and Analysis of Urban Ecosystem Services in Singapore Aesthetic ality For the analysis of aesthetic quality in Singapore, the module of the same name in InVEST was used. e data for the module consists of publically available data on different positive natural impact points in Singapore namely heritage trees, skyrise greenery and community gardens. e datasets were updated in July 2014, August 2014 and May 2011, respectively (see data reference section for full record). To conduct the viewshed analysis, further data of a Digital Elevation Model (SRTM; NASA & NGA, n.d.) was implemented. e calculation runs with a standard refractivity coefficient of 0.13, representing the earth s curvature correction, and a resolution of 100 m. Figure 3: Analysis of the Aesthetic ality of Nature in Singapore including heritage trees, skyrise greenery and community gardens as aesthetically positive impacts points in a viewshed (see data reference section for full record) Table 2: Overview on the prioritized ecosystem services in Singapore (derived from questionnaire) and corresponding actions in the Housing and Development Board s (HDB) Greenprint plan Categories Prioritized Ecosystem Services HDB s Greenprint action Provisioning Services Food Community Engagement / Landscaping & Greenery Fresh Water Water Conservation Regulating Services Air quality regulation Adaptation and mitigation climate change / Landscaping & Greenery Waste water treatment Waste Management Habitat Services Habitat Community Gardening Cultural and amenity Services Aesthetic quality Greener Living / Landscaping & Greenery Recreation Community Gardening

88 82 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Natural impacts regarded as aesthetically positive contain heritage trees, skyrise greenery and community gardens. In the generated viewshed maps, the darker areas suggest a higher visual impact, based on the amount of sites visible. Areas with a highly positive natural aesthetic were distributed relatively evenly across the main island. e analysis shows that per cell a maximum of 390 features can be seen. However, most of the island derives an aesthetically positive impact from ten or less selected features Recreation Recreational services contribute to social connection, quality of life, physical health and other facets of human well-being. In other words, places of recreation within the urban environment are not only important in economic terms (e.g. eco-tourism), but also impact spiritual well-being, facilitate a sense of place and enhance social interactions (Russell et al., 2013). In fact, an increasing segment of recreational activities is nature-based, taking place in the natural environment (Balmford et al., 2009). Many Singaporeans find recreational services in the park connector network. As described in section 2.3 the recreation analysis takes into account geo-tagged photographs from the flickr database. Furthermore, data of park connector loops, cycling paths and relaxation points are included. e dataset on relaxation areas is derived from the Singaporean Health Promotion Board (Health Promotion Board, 2014) and includes topics like barbeque pits, fitness corners and a diversity of green spaces. e mapping results show that the highest density of visits (usdyav) occurs in the downtown area of Singapore, reflecting monuments, museums and sightseeing experience. Unsurprisingly, recreational services are predominant around the Marina region, Harbourfront as well as Sentosa Island. Furthermore, an increased number also highlights the paths along the park connectors and cycling loops as well as near the relaxation points. Another spot of high density of visits according to the user per day average seems to be the airport in the eastern part of the island. e benefit of the recreational service should be regarded carefully in this case Air ality Regulation e ecosystem service of air quality regulation was assessed through a carbon storage analysis in this paper. e assessment is based on the InVEST model including current land cover data, carbon pools and a valuation model with a value of carbon (USD/metric ton), the market discount and the annual rate of change in price. Due to the lack of data, only the biophysical carbon sequestration is calculated. e following map shows the distribution of carbon sequestration in Singapore based on a land cover with a rough resolution and the basic year 2000 (European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) dataset see Stibig et al. (2003)). Each land cover class receives a value of carbon stored in aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, soil and dead organic ma er adapted from the IPCC (IPCC, 2006). Figure 5: Carbon Analysis in Singapore, based on the land cover dataset for South East Asia (JRC, Stibig et al. 2003) carbon pools from the year 2000 are linked to tropical and subtropical amounts of carbon stored according to (IPCC, 2006) Figure 4: Mapping of the Recreation Analysis in Singapore, visit density is hypothesized from geo-tagged flickr database photographs (see data reference section for full record) Due to the model and land cover data resolution, smaller patches of green and carbon storage are not accounted for. erefore, the areas with the highest amount of carbon stored are forested and national park areas, such as the MacRitchie Reservoir and the Bukit Timah Nature Reserve, the wetland reserves as well as the green spaces around airports. e results do not reflect smaller parks and community gardens or greenery and trees along streets or skyrise greenery. ese might also pool a significant amount of carbon within the city. e unit represented is megagrams (tons) per grid cell.

89 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Provision of Food and Water e provision of food is of special importance in the Singaporean case and ranked high on both impact and dependence scales. e provision of food includes the production of crops (e.g. grain, vegetables, fruits, and rapeseed) for human or animal consumption. At present, only about 0.5 % of the total land area is devoted to agricultural use and total farming area is steadily declining. is results in a strong dependence on daily food imports from neighboring countries. Food provision within the urban environment is thus enabled through agricultural areas, but also through community gardens or vertical and skyrise greenery. In order to localize food provision, a definition of all areas suitable for food production is prerequisite. Singapore promotes the development of roo op and skyrise greenery through several incentive schemes. So far, about 374 buildings had installed either roo op greenery ( 70 %), vertical greenery ( 22 %) or both ( 8 %) (see data reference section for full record). In 2012, it translated to more than 60 hectares of installed skyrise greenery in and on about 250 buildings (Behm and Hock, 2012). e Community in Bloom program was fostered by the National Parks Board in 2005 which was joined by private persons as well as schools, hospitals and welfare organizations. In 2011, Singaporean food supply was supported by 458 community gardens of which 146 were officially listed with a primary use of fruit trees, herbs and spices or vegetables (National Parks Board, 2011). In the meantime, around 600 gardening groups can be found. Another essential ecosystem service for human well-being is fresh water, which is provided from inland bodies, groundwater or surface waters. Fresh water provision ranked highest on both dependence and impact scales, and can thus be considered to be of very high priority for the Singaporean public. Fresh water provision can be approximated by the surface area of fresh water ecosystems and the annual water flow derived thereof. 4. Discussion Evaluating spatially explicit indicators as described in the respective analyses allows for the identification of urban areas with low and high provision of ecosystem services. A density analysis of the cultural services, represented by community gardens, heritage trees, skyrise greenery and relaxation points as used in this study for recreation and aesthetic quality, shows the highest density of said services in the Marina Bay, the Central Area but also along the cycling paths and the park connector loops. In terms of facilitating easy access to cultural service, these routes seem well planned. e analysis of aesthetic quality in Singapore is very much influenced by the aesthetically positive points chosen. Using community gardens, skyrise greenery and heritage trees in this case, the output generated displays a wide spread positive aesthetical quality throughout Singapore with a slight concentration in the Central Area, on Pulau Ubin, an island north east of Singapore dedicated to eco-tourism and wildlife preservation and on Sentosa Island, an island resort south of Singapore. e recreation analysis allows for several interpretations. Since the recreation tool relies on the flickr database of geo-tagged photographs, results may be improved by including either visitation rates of recreational features or other databases in addition to flickr. In other words, high visitation rates might alter and decrease the recreational aspect. Using this model, it is not possible to distinguish between purely natural recreation facets and also cultural aspects since the photographs taken into account are unknown and might display more cultural features. Additionally, the mapped results have to be seen in the context of a larger landscape, as the artificially generated boundaries may result in clipped and ignored features within the external environment. rough the installation of park connectors and cycling paths, Singapore controls the spread of visitors (locally) and creates space for natural development, where the environment is less impacted. e park connector network serves several important purposes in the highly fragmented urban landscapes in Singapore. From a conservation point of view, it provides habitat and shelter. e park connectors are also hotspots of social interaction and recreational value. One of the most crucial roles of the park connector roles is, however, that of increasing habitat connectivity. Regulating ecosystem services are tackled in this paper using a carbon storage analysis. e input data allows for an estimation of several land use classes capability to store carbon aboveground, belowground, in the soil and in dead ma er. is does not reflect any small patches of green within the city or the efforts of Singapore to install skyrise greenery. Further research including these carbon storage options is necessary. Still, the highest amounts of carbon are stored in the central parts of the Singaporean Island within the forests and revoir areas. In the field of provisioning ecosystem services, food and water supply alternatives are discussed. Singapore relies heavily on imports regarding foodstuffs so community gardens, skyrise greenery and other backup capacities are needed. With the program Community in Bloom, Singapore already provides support for active private gardeners with the wish for self-supply. While small areas of farmland and fish farms are located exclusively in the Western Water Catchment, community gardens and skyrise greenery are spatially well distributed on the island and provide food but also cultural services very locally. 5. Added Value for the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction In general, the assessment of ecosystem services in cities is one way of valuating the benefits of ecosystems for the city s inhabitants as monetarized values as well as nonmonetary benefits. e concept of an Urban Ecosystem Services Review (Urban-ESR) as used here, forms a basis that fits to the concept of critical infrastructures and specifically addresses the sectors of energy supply, water and food supply, urban development and air pollution.

90 84 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Critical infrastructures are defined as being essential for the public security and supply and a critical infrastructure failure leads to massive limitations in public life (e.g. Bundesamt ür Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik, 2004). Besides, disaster risk management is regarded during the steps of scenario building and a SWOT-analysis and is part of the ecosystem service type of regulating services. Since the concept of the Urban-ESR includes social, economic and ecological factors, it is most suitable for the framework for disaster risk reduction to include people s quality of life. As could be seen in the case of Singapore, which is at the forefront of developing building-integrated vegetation, skyrise greenery projects add several dimensions to the urban ecosystem service concept aside from greening the urban infrastructure. In fact, such projects serve as perfect example for nearly every type of ecosystem service. is includes not only provisioning services in terms of food and fresh water provision, but also regulating services for micro-climate, air pollution and indoor energy demand. Moreover, habitat for species is provided through green roo ops. Cultural purposes are fulfilled as well since green roofs may serve as eco-touristic magnet and recreational hotspot. However, the installations of roof greenery and gardens are in direct competition to PV panels and solar heating devices. Nevertheless, both usages are still partly possible. is would increase the provisioning services of self-reliant energy supply and also the other services as discussed above. e installation of information panels in public skyrise greenery or community gardens could also raise the awareness and acceptance of such measures. 6. Conclusions e Urban-ESR has offered insight into the current provision of urban ecosystem services as well as of ecosystem services in urban areas in Singapore. Overall, the insights gained through the preceding GIS-based maps and investigations provide urban planners with helpful starting points for distilling the necessary practices. Additional data inputs would allow for analyses of the future or potential provision status. Since governmental assistance is crucial for conservation purposes, the incorporation of the spatial dimension can help arrange such administrative and institutional support. is is particularly valuable for solving environmental management problems in an integrated way. Ecosystem Services, however, cannot only be regarded as natural benefits for people within the framework of an Urban-ESR but cities must be accepted as a kind of natural environment that provides its inhabitants and visitors with natural as well as cultural goods and services. is becomes especially clear regarding recreation as an ES. e analysis in InVEST already takes into account cultural aspects by reflecting geo-tagged photographs of any kind that are worth visiting. ere is no difference being made whether it is nature or culture providing this service. Discussions with scientists and decision-makers in this field showed a discrepancy in language and use of specific terms. Ecosystem Services are a new concept, with Ecosystem Services Reviews as a framework for their assessment, that needs reflection with known procedures and terms otherwise decision-makers are skeptical whether it is useful and practical. By filling the ESR framework with tools and methods specifically designed for decision support and stakeholder advice in cities such as GIS-based maps, Cost-Benefit-Assessment and the overall integration of decision makers into the processes, an Urban-ESR increases the acceptance and understanding of ecosystem services. Applications like Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA) and green/blue infrastructure still lack a common procedure and perception in decision making (e.g. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), 2012; European Climate Foundation (ECF), 2014). While EbA is perceived as a so concept, green and blue infrastructure pools so and hard measures for a sustainable (urban) development. In 2014, Singapore s national water agency PUB released an updated version of its ABC waters program. ABC stands for Active, Beautiful, Clean and the program was launched in It includes measures as sustainable storm water management, enhancement of biodiversity and increasing aesthetics and recreation (Public Utilities Board (PUB), 2014). However, terms like management, planning, design and construction predominate the communication side and underline green and blue infrastructures. Contrasting this, EbA is not addressed explicitly. One of the next steps will be an implementation of this program in the Urban-ESR Singapore with regard to the provisioning services. Understanding the individual needs of different ecosystem service beneficiaries, including their perception and knowledge of services, is crucial particularly for intangible or abstract ecosystem services. Future participatory research should thus focus on the inclusion of different stakeholders at various points throughout the Ecosystem Services Review. A comprehensive and critical involvement of stakeholders will help close the existing knowledge gap concerning the social-cultural need for and acknowledgement of urban ecosystem services. Future studies could assess the similarities and differences of maps of urban ecosystem service provision generated by or for the various stakeholder groups in a comparative way. Only if urban ecosystem services are distributed and provided in an equitable way, they can trigger the positive health benefits for the urban population. References Bagstad, K. J., Semmens, D. J., Waage, S. & Winthrop, R. (2013). A comparative assessment of decision-support tools for ecosystem services quantification and valuation. Ecosystem Services, 5, Balmford, A., Beresford, J., Green, J., Naidoo, R., Walpole, M. & Manica, A. (2009). A global perspective on trends in naturebased tourism. PLoS Biology, 7, e

91 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Behm, M. & Hock, P. C. (2012). Safe design of skyrise greenery in Singapore. Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, 1, Bolund, P. & Hunhammar, S. (1999). Ecosystem services in urban areas. Ecological Economics, 29, Breuste, J., Haase, D., & Elmqvist, T. (2013). Urban Landscapes and Ecosystem Services. In: S. Wra en, H. Sandhu, R. Cullen & R. Costanza (Eds.), Ecosystem Services in Agricultural and Urban Landscapes. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Bundesamt ür Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik (2004). Analyse Kritischer Infrastrukturen - Die Methode AKIS. In: BSI/KRITIS (ed.). European Climate Foundation (ECF), ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, University of Cambridge Judge Business School (CJBS), & University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL). (2014). Climate Change: Implications for Cities, pp. 15 p. Gómez-Baggethun, E., Gren, Å., Barton, D. N., Langemeyer, J., McPhearson, T., O Farrell, P.,... Kremer, P. (2013). Urban Ecosystem Services. In T. Elmqvist & e. al. (Eds.), Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities: A Global Assessment. Springer, Government of Singapore (2012). HDB Greenprint [Online]. Singapore. Available: [Accessed October ]. Inter-Ministerial Commi ee on Sustainable Development A lively and liveable Singapore: Strategies for sustainable growth. Singapore. IPCC (2006) IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme - Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use. In: Eggleston, S., Buendia, L., Miwa, K., Ngara, T. & Tanabe, K. (eds.). Hayama, Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Landsberg, F., Treweek, J., Stickler, M. M., Henninger, N. & Venn, O. (2013). Weaving Ecosystem Services into Impact Assessment. Washington D.C.: World Resources Institute. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005). Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Washington, D.C. (USA). Ministry of National Development Singapore (2013). A high quality living environment for all Singaporeans. Land Use Plan to Support Singapore s Future Population. Singapore. Ozment, S., Macnair, D., Bartell, S., Wyse, B., Childs, R. & Shaikh, S. (2013). Creating value through ecosystem service management in urban and suburban landscapes. Washington D.C.: World Resources Institute. Public Utilities Board (PUB) (2014). Active, Beautiful, Clean (ABC) Waters - Design Guidelines. Revi, A., Sa erthwaite, D. E., Aragón-Durand, F., Corfee-Morlot, J., Kiunsi, R. B. R., Pelling, M.,... Solecki, W. (2014). Urban areas. In C. B. Field, V. R. Barros, D. J. Dokken, K. J. Mach, M. D. Mastrandrea, T. E. Bilir, M. Cha erjee, K. L. Ebi, Y. O. Estrada, R. C. Genova, B. Girma, E. S. Kissel, A. N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P. R. Mastrandrea & W. L.L. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fi h Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, Russell, R., Guerry, A. D., Balvanera, P., Gould, R. K., Basurto, X., Chan, K. M. A., Klain, S., Levine, J. & Tam, J. (2013). Humans and Nature: How Knowing and Experiencing Nature Affect Well-Being. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 38, Sieber, J., & Fremgen, L. (2014). Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Urban Resilience. Paper presented at the 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference Integrative Risk Management - e role of science, technology & practice, Davos. Extended Abstract retrieved from Singapore Department of Statistics (2013). Latest Data [Online]. Singapore. Available: [Accessed December ]. Tallis, H. T., Ricke s, T., Guerry, A. D., Wood, S. A., Sharp, R., Nelson, E., Ennaanay, D., Wolny, S., Olwero, N., Vigerstol, K., Pennington, D., Mendoza, G., Aukema, J., Foster, J., Forrest, J., Cameron, D., Arkema, K., Lonsdorf, E., Kennedy, C., Verutes, G., Kim, C. K., Guannel, G., Papenfus, M., To, J., Marsik, M., Bernhardt, J., Griffin, R., Glowinski, K., Chaumont, N., Perelman, A., Lacayo, M., Mandle, L., Hamel, P. & Chaplin-Kramer, R. (2013). InVEST User s Guide. Stanford: e Natural Capital Project. Tan, P. Y., Wang, J. & Sia, A. (2013). Perspectives on five decades of the urban greening of Singapore. Cities, 32, TEEB - e Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (2011). TEEB Manual for Cities: Ecosystem Services in Urban Management. In: TEEB (ed.). online. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), Cocchiglia, M., Molin Valdés, H., Rego, A., Sco, J., Valdés Aguayo, J., & Bi ner, P. (2012). How to make cities more resilient. A Handbook for Local Government Leaders. In Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (World Bank) GFDRR & United Nations (UN) (Eds.), Making Cities Resilient - My City is Ge ing Ready! Geneva (CH), 102 p. World Resources Institute (WRI), Meridian Institute & World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) (2012). e Corporate Ecosystem Services Review: Guidelines for Identifying Business Risks and Opportunities Arising from Ecosystem Change.

92 86 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Datasets BBBike.org under OpenStreetMap License (2014). [Accessed February 04, 2014] Singapore. National Parks Board (2014). Park Connector Loops. Retrieved from: [Accessed September 18, 2014] Health Promotion Board (2014). Retrieved from: [Accessed September 18, 2014] Land Transport Authority (2014). LTA & Town Council Cycling Paths. Retrieved from: [Accessed September 18, 2014] National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) & National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) (n.d.). SRTM3 - Shu le Radar Topography Mission Global Coverage ( 90m) Version 2. Retrieved from: [Accessed March 19, 2014] National Parks Board (2011). Community in Bloom - Community Gardens Retrieved from: [Accessed September 18, 2014] National Parks Board (2014). Heritage Trees. Retrieved from: [Accessed January 17, 2014] National Parks Board (2014). Skyrise Greenery. Retrieved from: [Accessed February 05, 2014] Stibig, H.-J., Upik, R., Beuchle, R., Hildanus & Mubareka, S e Land Cover Map for South East Asia in the Year In: GLC2000 database European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.). [Accessed July 25, 2014] A nowledgements is work was conducted in the frame of the project Smart and Low Carbon Cities, a collaboration between Singapore s Housing and Development Board (HDB) and the research and development department of Electricite de France (EDF). Citation Sieber, J, Fremgen L. and Pons, M. (2015): Assessment of Ecosystem Services for Urban Resilience Case Study in Singapore. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): 77-86, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

93 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Building financial resilience the role of risk transfer for sovereign disaster risk management BAUR, Esther and PARKER, Martyn Swiss Re, Global Partnerships, Abstract Every year natural catastrophes cause massive human and financial losses around the world. Economic costs of natural catastrophes have clearly increased in the last two decades. e first priority for decision makers is to reduce risk to save human lives and to reduce potential damage to properties and infrastructure. Prevention, mitigation and risk avoidance are the most important priorities for disaster management. But not all risks can be avoided, so preparing for disasters is indispensable. Financial strategies for disaster risk management are necessary to ensure that individuals, businesses and governments have the financial resources necessary to deal with the adverse financial and economic consequences of disasters. Financial preparedness is a critical component of sovereign disaster risk management as it enables the critical funding of disaster response, recovery and reconstruction. Insurance instruments which help countries cope with financial needs resulting from natural disasters have received increasing a ention in recent years. Moreover new, innovative approaches have been developed around the world to secure contingent funding before an event happens. By pu ing a price tag on risks, insurance also incentivizes prevention measures and provides a basis to compare costs and benefits of different measures. is article will focus on why financial resilience is a critical component of sovereign disaster risk management, what role risk transfer mechanisms can play with a particular emphasis on sovereign risk transfer solutions - and what is needed for an integrated country risk management approach which includes financing considerations. Keywords disaster risk financing, sovereign risk financing, disaster insurance, financial resilience, integrated disaster risk management 1. Ba ground e statistics are alarming: Earthquakes, droughts, floods, storms and other natural catastrophes impact over 500 million people every single year. Over half of the world s population lives in regions highly exposed to extreme weather and natural disasters. Because of the increased concentration of people in cities with the related business activity, the humanitarian and economic costs to society can be high saw 158 major natural disasters around the globe in which over people lost their lives or went missing. Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines and the flooding in U arakhand in India were just two of them. Economic losses from these disasters amounted to USD 140 billion. For the insurance and reinsurance industry, the financial burden was relatively low with insured losses of only USD 45 billion, or about one third. is has been the average level over the past two decades¹. e fact that only about one third of the losses are covered by insurance means that households, businesses and governments bear the brunt of these losses themselves. e economic cost of natural catastrophes has increased markedly. In the 1980s, inflation-adjusted costs were on average about USD 25 billion, in the 1990s this increased to USD 95 billion per year. In the last ten years, economic damage reached an annual, inflation-adjusted average of USD 130 billion². ¹Swiss Re, sigma no. 1/2014 ²Swiss Re, sigma database

94 88 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 1: Natural catastrophe losses ere are a number of reasons for the increasing losses³: An increase in the number of catastrophic events since 1970⁴. Rapid urbanization. For the first time in history more people live in cities than in rural areas. Many of the growing cities are located in high-risk coastal or flood prone areas. Failure of infrastructure construction to keep pace with rate of urbanization. People and assets have become increasingly concentrated in urban conurbations, o en in disaster-prone regions. In emerging economies, rapid urban expansion has outpaced the construction/establishment of infrastructure and impact reduction measures such as coastal defences, improved building codes, land-use zoning and planning, improved early-warning systems and disaster preparedness, and response and recovery procedures. Increased vulnerability of assets and goods. Today s productive processes are more complex, involving assets and inputs with overall higher economic value. e destruction of productive assets in a disaster event can therefore entail a higher overall financial loss than previously. With the interconnectedness of the global economy, the costs of global and interdependent supply chains breaking down can be severe. Environmental degradation. Factors such as soil degradation, deforestation and changes in land-use can heighten the impact of extreme weather events. 2. Addressing the financial protection gap A large part of the economic costs of disasters are not insured. On average, over the last twenty years only about 30% of these losses were covered by insurance. We call this gap between insured losses and total losses the financial protection gap. As these losses are not covered by insurance, they largely fall back on households, businesses and the government. e public sector not only has to shoulder the cost of relief and recovery, but also has to pay for the reconstruction of public infrastructure. And when individuals and firms are underinsured, which is generally the case in many developing economies, the government is o en expected to support private rebuilding efforts by providing transfer payments as well. e consequences are wide-ranging, from slower economic growth, shortfalls in tax revenues and the loss of hard-won development gains⁵. As the long-term trend points to rising economic and insured losses, the financial impact on governments budgets becomes ever more acute: evacuation measures, emergency health care, clean water and sanitation, ensuring food supply and restoring infrastructure all cost money. e funding of these costs historically has only been arranged a er an event: by re-allocating budget, selling state assets, through debt financing or by raising taxes. e disadvantages of such ex-post financing strategies are manifold: they take time to arrange they may jeopardize investment plans or debt financing might not be possible or only at high costs ³Swiss Re, sigma No. 1/2014 ⁴ is may in part be due to more comprehensive and inclusive reporting of disaster events and associated losses, in parallel with heightened public awareness of disasters and their consequences. ⁵Swiss Re, Closing the financial gap

95 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March debt levels may become unsustainably high raising taxes puts another burden on the population already affected by the disaster donor support is highly uncertain In a nutshell; it is highly uncertain if and at what cost expost financing tools are available. Empirical studies have shown that major natural catastrophes are harmful for economic growth in addition to causing human suffering and broader destruction. In addition, those macroeconomic costs are higher when insurance penetration is low. Insurance can therefore play an important role in mitigating the macroeconomic costs arising from major natural catastrophes⁶. 3. Ex ante risk financing- a wide range of insurance solutions 3.1. Different approaches for different needs Financial preparedness therefore is essential to make funding available quickly for disaster response, recovery and reconstruction and to ensure that individuals, businesses and governments have the resources necessary to manage the economic consequences of disasters. Exante arrangements, providing certainty that funds will be quickly available, enable governments to prevent the affected areas from suffering societal and economic collapse. Governments and city/regional officials are increasingly interested to explore risk transfer through insurance and alternative risk financing solutions. Insurance o en presents the most cost-effective way of dealing with the financial risks posed by low-probability, highseverity events. ere are different approaches for governments to close the financial protection gap through insurance. Some countries put the emphasis on facilitating and promoting insurance solutions for homeowners and businesses to reduce government s liabilities for disaster relief funding; others directly insure the government s exposure. It is not an either/or decision, each instrument fulfils a different need and they can also complement each other. A variety of innovative public-private risk transfer partnerships have been implemented over the past few years and these can act as models for many other countries yet to embark on ex-ante risk financing strategies Sovereign risk transfer solutions Mexico is considered a pioneer in transferring risk through public-private partnerships. Faced with natural perils from storms over the Atlantic and the Pacific to earthquakes, Mexico has been hit by several large events in the last few decades. As early as the 1990s, the Mexican government identified disaster risk reduction as a national priority, creating the Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) in 1999 to improve its financial preparedness for natural disasters. With the intention of helping smooth the impact of payouts on the national budget, Mexico arranged for the first parametric EQ risk transfer scheme already in 2006 to cover some of the governments disaster relief expenses. In 2009, it concluded the Multi- Cat transaction - renewed and extended in 2012⁷ -, which uses so-called catastrophe bonds to transfer earthquake and hurricane risks to capital markets. ese instruments provide the Mexican government with rapid access to natural disaster protection from the capital markets in the event of a major disaster⁸. Figure 2: Different approaches to close the protection gap ⁶Goetz, von Dahlen, Saxena, Unmitigated disasters? New evidence on the macroeconomic cost of natural catastrophes ⁷Swiss Re, ⁸G20/Gov t of Mexico/World Bank, Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience

96 90 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Mexico s financial strategy for managing the costs of disasters at the Federal level has three main components⁹: a a risk retention vehicle (FONDEN) that allows to budget for the costs produced by the most frequent types of disasters, b a reinsurance program that leverages budget funds in order to purchase a layer of cover that provides funds unrelated to the public finances when severe deviations of disaster frequency arise, and c a parametric triggered layer of cover that provides immediate emergency funds if a major and severe disaster occurs. Uruguay is another country, which uses risk transfer to help reduce the government s financial exposure¹⁰. Weather risk has increasingly become a burden to the Government of Uruguay. Uruguay relies largely on rainfall for its hydroelectric plants to produce enough electricity and dry conditions can lead to increased energy importation at uncertain costs. In a 2012 drought, this climate variability pushed the government into a deficit when Uruguay had to buy electricity on the international spot market. To help lower this financial exposure, Uruguay has entered into a landmark weather risk transaction. It uses rainfall data and oil prices for se lement, and provides the government compensation for the combined risk of drought conditions and an increase in the price of energy. A major source of budget uncertainty each year is thereby reduced¹¹. In three different parts of the world, a number of countries have come together to create so-called sovereign risk pools and to jointly transfer the risk to the international re/insurance and capital markets. e Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Pool (CCRIF)¹² has been the first of such kind of a sovereign risk pool and is owned and operated by 16 Caribbean governments. It is structured to pay out quickly in case of serious disaster, using parametric insurance instruments, such as strength of earthquakes, wind speeds, or rainfall to estimate losses and to determine payout levels¹³. CCRIF represents a paradigm shi in the way governments treat risk: by pu ing contingent funding in place before catastrophes occur and streamlining the loss assessment process, it shows how the proactive treatment of risks can reduce their economic impact. Since the inception of CCRIF in 2007, the Facility has made eight payouts totalling more than USD 32 million to seven member governments. All payouts a er each event were transferred to the respective governments immediately a er the stipulated 14-day waiting period¹⁴. e Pacific Islands countries, with a combined population of almost 10 million people, are highly exposed to natural disasters. rough the Pacific catastrophe risk insurance pilot, six of the Pacific Islands countries including Cook Islands, Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, have arranged protection against earthquake, tsunami and tropical cyclone risks from the global re/insurance market. Launched in 2013, the programme assists the governments of the Pacific Islands to transfer catastrophic risk and provide emergency funds for disaster relief efforts. Tonga was the first country to benefit from a payout¹⁵. On 11 January 2014, the category 5 Cyclone Ian swept across the island of Tonga killing one person, displacing thousands and causing tremendous devastation to crops and infrastructure. Hundreds of families in several communities were affected by the cyclone, which destroyed homes and critical functions such as health centers and schools. According to reports, up to 75 percent of the buildings have been damaged in some parts of Ha apai, as well as power and communication networks. Funds received under the scheme allowed the government to meet the most urgent needs to repair and rebuild Tonga in the following days and weeks¹⁶. e African Risk Capacity is the latest such regional risk pool. It helps African governments manage climaterelated disaster risks in a be er way by moving from post-disaster aid to pre-event risk management. Its first sovereign insurance programme was launched in May 2014, offering initially five African governments to cover some of their disaster relief expenses related to drought through innovative weather-index insurance. Senegal, Mauretania, Niger, Kenya and Mozambique are among the first five countries which have joined this African Risk Capacity insurance program¹⁷. These examples provide the necessary evidence that the mechanisms of sovereign risk transfer work, and that they can help pave the way from short term relief and recovery to long term growth. However, it s still a small number of countries which benefit from such ex-ante risk transfer mechanisms Benefits of sovereign risk transfer A common aspect of such sovereign risk transfer schemes is that they are based on so-called parametric or index insurance. Unlike traditional insurance, parametric insur- ⁹G20/Gov t of Mexico/World Bank, Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience ¹⁰Swiss Re, ¹¹ ¹²Sixteen governments are currently members of CCRIF: Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Ki s & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago and the Turks & Caicos Islands. CCRIF was developed under the technical leadership of the World Bank and with a grant from the Government of Japan. It was capitalised through contributions to a multi-donor Trust Fund by the Government of Canada, the European Union, the World Bank and others. ¹³Swiss Re, ¹⁴ e Caribbean Cat Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), ¹⁵ e World Bank, ¹⁶Swiss Re, ¹⁷African Risk Capacity, (10/10/2014)

97 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ance instruments use a model to calculate the payout of the insurance policy. is payout model aims to closely mirror the actual damage on the ground and enables a much more rapid payment, since no assessment of the actual damage is required a er the event. In the case of parametric insurance, the payout is triggered by a measure such as the strength of an earthquake or the air pressure experienced during a hurricane. Parametric insurance does not require loss adjusters to tally damage a er a catastrophe occurs, a process that can take months or even years and which can delay a payout. e speed of payout is one of the significant advantages of this type of transaction: a parametric trigger is transparent, both for the insured and for investors, and it means that loss events can be handled faster and more efficiently than with other kinds of insurance-based solutions. e disadvantage is that the payout received may deviate from the actual loss incurred (so-called basis risk). For example, the pre-agreed insured amount of USD 400m is paid, but basis risk means if losses are 425m it is insufficient, but if losses are 375m it is generous. However, without any insurance cover in place, the risk holder bears a 100% of the risk and hence this approximation is valuable and pragmatic to get liquidity quickly. The benefits of sovereign risk transfer as opposed to traditional ex-post financing are manifold: Guaranteed access to required funds for recovery, up to agreed cover limits Diversified funding to cope with financial consequences of natural catastrophes Speedy delivery, especially with innovative instruments such as parametric solutions Budget planning certainty (steady premiums vs highly volatile disaster expenses) No payback obligation (in contrast to debt financing) Reduction of a country s contingent liabilities to acceptable levels (positive implications for sovereign rating and currency) Reduced stress in crisis situation to divert own funds from other projects to affected areas Price tag on risks allows comparing cost-benefits of different prevention measures 3.4. Insuring homeowners: insurance pools and microinsurance solutions Another approach to relieve governments budgets of the contingent liabilities related to natural disasters is to promote insurance solutions for homeowners. e possibilities of introducing natural disaster insurance for homeowners are as varied as the disaster management strategies of different countries. ere is no single ideal or universally applicable solution for homeownner s disaster insurance. Each country must find and adapt a model that best fits its exposures, existing insurance market infrastructure, institutional set-up and political acceptability. e solutions in place in different countries range from comprehensive compulsory natural disaster covers offered by government-sponsored insurance entities (like in France or Spain) to privately organized voluntary disaster insurance products (like in Germany). As an illustration, the two neighbouring countries of Switzerland and Germany have very different systems: Switzerland has obligatory disaster insurance, covering 9 perils, which is partly offered by state insurers, partly offered by private insurers. Germany on the other hand has a voluntary disaster (flood) insurance offered by private insurers. Certainly, a very good example of a disaster insurance scheme set-up rather recently is the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool. Following the devastating earthquake in the Marmara Sea in 1999, Turkey has invested massively in prevention, strengthened coordinated emergency response and introduced an insurance scheme which today serves as a model for many countries. It is one of the most successful specialized earthquake insurance pools in the world, providing risk-based disaster insurance for homeowners. With close to 7 million policies sold, it has become one of the largest catastrophe insurance pools in the world. It also serves as a model for many countries in terms of a successful public-private partnership¹⁸. Another new initiative is the recently established natural catastrophe insurance facility in South Eastern Europe, called Europa Re. Owned by the participating governments and supported by several international and donor organizations it has started to offer earthquake, flood and agricultural insurance to homeowners and smallholders in Serbia, Macedonia and Albania in 2014¹⁹. e number of uninsured people at the bo om of the pyramid world-wide is estimated to be 4 billion. Many of them live in conditions that leave them particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as heavy rain, wind, or earthquakes. Very few of them have financial reserves to recover from disasters or access to financial instruments, yet such access could fundamentally change the prospects of many households in vulnerable communities and increase their resilience²⁰. e Bangladesh meso-level flood insurance pilot is a good example of how disaster insurance solutions can also be tailored to low-income families. Bangladesh is a floodprone country and suffers from large-scale flooding periodically. It is one of the primary reasons for widespread poverty, because of the related high death tolls and illnesses and because it renders many people homeless, with no income and no food. People rely on government aid, NGOs, MFIs and other agencies. Over the last decades, the Bangladesh government, together with international agencies and local partners, has been working on building structural solutions to counter the losses caused by floods, as well as finding protection for residents of the river basin against catastrophic floods. ese include traditional ap- ¹⁸Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, ¹⁹Europa Re, ²⁰Swiss Re, sigma No. 6/2010

98 92 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 proaches like construction and raising of river embankments, construction of flood protection shelters, and food and medical stores. e dependence on ex-post disaster risk financing mechanisms causes unforeseen pressure on budgets of government and meso-level agencies with limited funds. is situation creates uncertainty regarding budgetary allocations, delays in relief provision and disincentives for risk mitigation strategies among communities. In recent years, an innovative meso-level flood index insurance pilot project has been launched in Bangladesh by donor organizations in close collaboration with the private sector. e pilot scheme covers 1660 families from 14 villages and uses model-generated flood data for payout calcuation. If a catastrophic flood occurs (according to pre-defined criteria), the programme will provide cash relief to households through local organizations²¹. 4. Linking prevention and risk transfer: quantifying and pricing risks e benefit of insurance mechanisms for disaster financing goes beyond the pure funding aspect. Insurance puts a price tag on risk and thereby also promotes the right incentives to invest in prevention measures. Appropriate investments in prevention keep insurance affordable. us, risk prevention and risk transfer are mutually reinforcing²². For policymakers and disaster planners, the aim of saving lives and reducing human suffering through risk prevention measures is of course the most important priority. One of the biggest challenges policymakers face is how to identify the most cost-effective ways to prevent, mitigate and reduce risks with limited resources. Insurers risk models are a helpful tool in this effort. ey allow risks to be quantified and thus priced. is allows policymakers to compare the costs and benefits of different risk reduction measures and make more informed choices about those measures that promise to yield the biggest loss reductions. Such an approach is at the heart of the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) methodology²³. It considers not only the disaster risk posed to society from today s climate, but also the impact of climate change and the expected future value of economic development. Climate adaptation is an integral part of disaster risk reduction and goes hand in hand with sustainable development planning. e ECA approach presents a strong case for immediate action. It shows that well-targeted, early investments in infrastructure, technology, capacity, behaviours or risk transfer measures are likely to be cheaper and more effective than complex disaster relief efforts a er the event. By combining risk prevention and risk transfer measures as part of a comprehensive risk management strategy, local and national decisionmakers will make their communities more resilient to climate change and be er prepared for disaster risks without compromising future adaptive capacity. In so doing, adaptation not only helps societies secure development gains already made, but it also ensures that any future growth is sustainable. 5. Integrated risk management: the role of a ief risk officer As explained earlier, financial risk transfer should be part of any comprehensive country risk management strategy. An integrated approach enables governments to set priorities and determine the most appropriate course of action to protect society from the financial costs of catastrophic events. An integrated risk management process should include a thorough analysis of the risk landscape, including environmental, political, social and health aspects. Integrated risk management enables political and public sector decision-makers to determine their priorities in advance and protect communities from the financial costs of peak risks. ese large risks not only emanate from natural catastrophes but also from man-made disasters such as terrorism as well as from pandemics and unanticipated longevity, the phenomenon of people living longer than originally projected and therefore creating pension cost liabilities. A comprehensive country risk management approach allows governments to minimize risks wherever possible and transfer the costs where necessary. Risk mitigation and risk transfer must go hand in hand. Building physical defences such as dams or sea walls may be expensive in the short term, but they deliver important economic benefits over the long run. Not only do such investments save human lives and keep the physical damage to a minimum, but they also make insurance affordable for a wider community. In practical terms, an integrated risk management approach demands a high degree of coordination among relevant public and private entities. e OECD calls for a whole-of-society approach to engage all stakeholders in strengthening resilience²⁴. A central coordinating figure at government level a Chief Risk Officer (CRO) would usefully be appointed to head up such efforts. e task of the CRO is to monitor the entire risk landscape facing their country through an integrated risk management process, set priorities and coordinate actions to minimize the human and economic impact of unforeseen disaster events. A Country Risk Officer could lend weight to the process of systematic risk management and give it a public face²⁵. ²¹Desai K.R., Meso-level flood index insurance pilot in Sirajganj, Bangladesh ²²Swiss Re, Weathering climate change ²³Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group ²⁴OECD, Boosting resilience through innovative risk governance ²⁵Swiss Re, Country risk management: making societies more resilient

99 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Conclusions Risk prevention and mitigation strategies must be the first priority in managing natural disasters. But no organization or country can fully insulate itself against extreme events. Transferring catastrophic risk must therefore be a key element in the financial strategy of every disasterprone country or region to enable and sustain growth. e G20 and OECD have recognized that financial resilience is a critical component of disaster management ²⁶ because the immediate availability of funds to finance the necessary disaster response and recovery is critical to take appropriate action, not only for individuals and businesses, but also for governments. It is of utmost priority for the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to recognize financial resilience as crucial effective disaster management and the role different insurance instruments can play. ere is li le awareness among decision makers, disaster management authorities and potentially affected households, businesses and governments about the role insurance instruments can play. Financial education and training for disaster management specialists is important: equally public finance specialists need to be more aware of disaster risks and exposures. What is needed is a more joined-up effort between finance and disaster management disciplines. References African Risk Capacity, (10 October 2014) Desai K.R. (2013): Meso-Level Flood Index Insurance Pilot in Sirajganj, Bangladesh - e Process Note, Centre for Insurance and Risk Management (CIRM), Advisory Services India (2013), Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2010): Economics of climate adaptation: Shaping climate-resilient development. Europa Re, (10 October 2014) G20/OECD (2013): Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing A G20 / OECD Methodological framework, G20/Government of Mexico/World Bank (2012): Improving the Assessment of Disaster Risks to Strengthen Financial Resilience - A Special Joint G20 Publication by the Government of Mexico and the World Bank, 218ff. Goetz V., Dahlen V., Saxena S. (2012): Unmitigated disasters? New evidence on the macroeconomic cost of natural catastrophes, Bank for International Se lements, Working Paper No OECD (2014): Boosting resilience through innovative risk governance, OECD Publishing Swiss Re (2014): Improving climate resilience in the Caribbean, (10 October 2014) Swiss Re (2014): Natural catastrophes and man-made disasters in 2013 large losses from floods and hail; Haiyan hits the Philippines, sigma No. 1/2014. Swiss Re (2014): African Risk Capacity protecting agricultural investments in Africa, (10 October 2014) Swiss Re (2014): Tonga: first to benefit from Pacific Risk Insurance payout, (10 October 2014) Swiss Re (2013): Largest energy risk transfer project completed for Uruguay, (10 October 2014) Swiss Re (2013): Weathering climate change: insurance solutions for more resilient communities. Swiss Re (2012): Closing the financial gap. New partnerships between the public and private sector to finance disaster risks. Swiss Re (2012): Experts on MultiCat Mexico, (10 October 2014) Swiss Re (2010): Microinsurance risk protection for 4 billion people, sigma No. 6/2010. Swiss Re (2010): Country risk management making societies more resilient. e Caribbean Cat Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), (10 October 2014) e Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, (10 October 2014) e World Bank (2014): (10 October 2014) e World Bank, (10 October 2014) ²⁶G20/OECD, Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing

100 94 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Citation Baur, E. and Parker, M. (2015): Building financial resilience the role of risk transfer for sovereign disaster risk management. In: 3(1): 87-94, Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

101 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Incorporating Science and Te nology for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Japanese Experience NISHIKAWA, Satoru a a Vice-President, Japan Water Agency, Saitama, Japan, Abstract Japan, throughout her history has long dealt with disasters, has recorded disasters, developed technologies to confront disasters. Even in recent two centuries when modern scientific observation was introduced, has accumulated experience of confronting with typhoons, earthquakes and tsunamis. rough these bi er experiences, Japan was prepared against strong M8 class earthquakes and tsunamis of 30 to 150 year return period. However the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake was brought by a crustal movement far greater than the Jogan Earthquake 1100 years back in history. On the other hand, structural and non-structural earthquake countermeasures based on the experiences previous earthquakes have proven to be effective in earthquake disaster risk reduction. New technologies based on the latest scientific knowledge have proven its great value. ese experiences are being shared with the international comunity and will be further shared on the occasion of the ird WCDRR in March Keywords disaster risk reduction, application of science and technology, HFA, Great East Japan Earthquake, typhoon, tsunami, post-2015 framework 1. Hazards Confronting Vulnerable Communities Cause Disasters A typhoon hi ing a no-man s island is not a disaster. A strong earthquake in no-man s desert is not a disaster. However if they hit squa ers in low-lying areas, it will turn immediately into a disaster. Modern science still does not allow us to stop earthquakes nor diminish typhoons. However we can decrease the vulnerabilities of communities which may be affected by such hazards and thus reduce disasters (figure 1). e le half of Table 1 shows ranking of strong earthquakes in the 20th and 21st centuries. e right half shows ranking of deadly earthquakes. e two lists are quite different. It is a simplified indication of hazards confronting vulnerable communities cause disasters. e 1923 Japan Kanto Earthquake was magnitude 7.9 but it ranks 5th in number of casualties. In 1923, the Japanese seismic building standard was not adequate, Japanese cities were not well planned to prevent consequent urban fires, thus lives were lost. e March 2011 earthquake which hit east Japan ranked 4th in its strength. East Japan was Figure 1: Hazards confronting vulnerable communities cause disasters

102 96 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Strong Earthquakes Table 1: Ranking of Earthquakes in 20-21st Century Deadly Earthquakes Year Place Magnitude Year Place Casualties 1960 Chili China Tangshan Alaska China Ningxia Indonesia Sumatra Indonesia Sumatra East Japan Haiti Kamchatka Japan Kanto Chili China Sichuan Ecuador Pakistan, Afghanistan Alaska Aleutian Islands Italy Sicily Indonesia Sumatra China Gansu Tibet, Assam Peru Alaska Aleutian Islands 8.6 * * * 2011 East Japan Source: USGS and Cabinet Office Japan an area with numerous cities, including the million city Sendai. However the casualties from this earthquake are far below on the list of deadly earthquakes. Japan has paid numerous efforts for disaster risk reduction, including the application of science and technology for reducing disasters. Nevertheless, casualty over was a shocking number. Further efforts are being pursued. e following describes how Japan has struggled to reduce disasters including through practical application of science and technology over the centuries. 2. Japan s Long History of Struggling with Disasters Japan, due to her location in the circum-pacific Ring of Fire and in the Typhoon alley, has been menaced by numerous natural hazards; typhoons, floods, landslides, heavy snow, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, throughout her course of history. Japan s land count for 0.25% of the world, however Japan has the disproportionate share of 20.5% of all earthquakes stronger than M6 in the first decade of the 21st century and 7.0% of active volcanoes on earth. Due to these severe conditions, the Japanese have recorded disasters, have accumulated knowledge, have developed science and technologies to cope with disasters and thus have nurtured a culture of prevention e history of confronting disasters in pre-modern Japan In the Nihon-Shoki, one of the oldest official history book edited in the 8th century, there are records of earthquakes and tsunamis. e Yamato-Kochi Earthquake on August 416 A.D. is reported and the Hakuho-Nankai Great Earthquake on November 684 A.D. and the subsequent great tsunami and land subsidence are reported. In the succeeding official history book, Nihon-Sandai-Jitsuroku edited in the 9th century, it is reported that on July 869 A.D., a great earthquake hit the Mutsu-no-Kuni (the old name of Tohoku), toppled people were not able to stand up, houses collapsed and crushed to death, trapped in earth cracks, warehouses, gates, derricks and walls of fortresses were destroyed here and there, seawater surged to the castle of Taganoki and 1000 drowned to death,(sangawa, 2007) which describes that there was a similar gigantic earthquake & tsunami (the Jogan Earthquake) as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake & Tsunami. In the history of Japan, there are many renowned historical figures who have contributed to disaster risk reduction. In the 6-10th century, Buddhism was brought to Japan from China through the Korean peninsula. Japanese priests were sent to China to acquire the Buddhist scriptures. ey not only studied Buddhism but also acquired medical and civil engineering knowledge. Some of them strongly believed that alleviating the sufferings of fellow people was an important role of the religious leaders. Since the peasants at that time constantly suffered from droughts and floods, some priests stood up to apply their civil engineering knowledge for disaster risk reduction. e high Buddhist priest Gyoki, in 7-8th century, on his road of missionary made civil engineering works for river control. In 731, Gyoki and his followers constructed Koya-ike (Koya-pond), a multi-purpose dam-reservoir for flood control and irrigation in the present Hyogo prefecture.(kako and Ogata, 1997a) is Koya-ike is still used as tap-water reservoir, and is surrounded by a city park where the citizens enjoy the scenery. In 821, the high Buddhist priest Kukai (alias Kobo Daishi) reconstructed the Mannou-ike (Mannou-pond) dam reservoir by applying the latest civil engineering technology which is compatible to modern dams and saved the livelihood of farmers suffering from water shortage and flooding. is Mannou-ike is presently used as irrigation reservoir for 32 km2 of rice paddies in Kagawa prefecture Japan.

103 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 2: Shingen Tsutsumi (grouped echelon embankments) e famous 16th century warlord, Takeda Shingen who had his main territories in the Kofu basin which was frequently menaced by violent flooding, newly developed water control levee work called Shingen Tsutsumi (grouped echelon embankments, figure 2) and also invented water control structure called Sacred Cow (lumber made triangular pyramid to be placed in riverbeds of torrents to streamline and ease the flow), thus stabilized the livelihood of his farmers and gained support and power.(kako and Ogata, 1997b) All of these figures contributed to the welfare and livelihood of commoners by development and application of disaster risk reduction technologies and are regarded as the great saviors in Japanese history. hilltop, he found that the seawater was receding and noticed that this was the sign of a tsunami coming. Since it was ge ing dark, Hamaguchi having a quick wit, he lit fire on stacks of harvested rice sheaves on the high grounds. His fellow villagers were surprised to see the fire and ran up the slopes to extinguish the fire. Hamaguchi ordered them to let the fire burn on so that their followers will continue to run up the slopes, thus enabling them to flee from the tsunami. When the villagers looked back, their houses facing the seashore were totally inundated. Seeing the devastation by the tsunami, Hamaguchi stood up for the reconstruction of the village and provided funds for construction of a tsunami embankment along the coastline and hired the villagers who lost their means of living. is story was published in the national elementary school reading book from 1937 to 1947 and is widely known among the Japanese population. is tsunami embankment protected the Hiro village in 1946 when the Showa-Nankai Tsunami hit again.(japan Meteorological Agency, 2014) Another is a proverb said by a famous physicist Torahiko Terada who investigated the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, Tensai ha wasuretakoro ni ya ekuru: Natural hazards will hit us when we have forgo en about it alerting us of the importance of disaster awareness. Furthermore, every time a large disaster hit, people would erect stone monuments and shrines to pass down the bitter experiences to their descendants. When Edo (the old name of Tokyo) was hit by the Ansei-Edo Earthquake in 1855, a Ukiyo-e (a popular woodblock color print of Edo era) drawing was published, showing the citizens of Edo, trying to beat the legendary monster catfish which at that time was believed to have caused the earthquake (figure 3). is drawing symbolizes the wish of the Edo commoners to eliminate earthquakes. ese form an important part of the Japanese culture and are still occasionally used in public awareness programs e culture of disaster prevention fostered in Japan rough these bi er experiences Japanese people have fostered a culture of disaster prevention. is is reflected in the traditional listing of dreadful things for Japanese children Jishin Kaminari Kaji Oyaji which means Earthquake, under, Fire and Father (Storm). Oyaji which stands for a strict father in normal Japanese also stands for a big storm. ere are numerous local legends and proverbs expressing the necessity to be prepared for disasters. One example is the story of Inamura-no-hi, Fire on Rice Sheaves based on the immediate tsunami evacuation led by the Hiro village chief Hamaguchi Gihei right a er the 1854 Ansei-Nankai Earthquake. Hamaguchi felt a strong earthquake and when he was looking down from Figure 3: Traditional Ukiyo-e drawing Shin-Yoshihara Oo- Namazu Yurahi Even in the modern age, disasters have continued to ravage Japan. In 1891, 7273 people were killed by the M8 Noubi Earthquake; in 1896, lost their lives in the Meiji-Sanriku Tsunami, and in 1923 Tokyo and its vicinity was devastated by the M7.9 Great Kanto Earthquake. is

104 98 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 la er disaster resulted in the loss of lives and 40% of the country s GDP. In 1933, 3064 people were killed by the Showa-Sanriku Tsunami. In response to the devastating damage, the Japanese government not only provided relief and recovery to the affected areas but also tried to investigate the root causes of these damages through the inter-disciplinary Association for Earthquake Disaster Prevention, established in e association continued its activities until 2010 when its responsibilities were handed over to the Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering. 3. Institutionalization of Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts in Modern Japan 3.1. Typhoons threatened peoples lives in 1940s and 50s In the 1940s and 50s Japan was repeatedly ravaged by typhoons and earthquakes. Almost every year, thousands of lives were lost by typhoons(see table 2). In response, Japanese government incrementally placed measures to cope with disasters. Table 2: Casualties by series of typhoons in 1940s and 50s Year Typhoon Death Toll 1945 Makurazaki Typhoon Catherine Typhoon Ion Typhoon Jane Typhoon Ruth Typhoon Toyamaru Typhoon Kanogawa Typhoon Ise-wan Typhoon e first epoch-making turning point 1959 Ise-wan Typhoon In 1959, when Japan was on her course of revival from the ashes of World War II, Ise-wan Typhoon hit the third largest metropolitan area Nagoya and killed 5098 people. Ise-wan Typhoon was a category 5 super typhoon, with its lowest pressure at 895hpa and maximum wind speed of 75m/s. It brought not only havy rainfall of 650mm/day but also the strong wind generated an enormouse storm surge and inundated the low lying areas of Nagoya and its vicinity where three major rivers assemble to flow into Ise bay. is heavy damage triggered a big debate in the Japanese government on how to cope with natural hazards. A er two years of debate, the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act was legislated in is Act has three major characteristics. e Central Disaster Management Council, chaired by the Prime Minister and with membership of all Ministers of the Government as well as heads of semi-public organizations, such as NHK Public Broadcasting, Bank of Japan, Japanese Red Cross and the NTT Telecommunications Company as well as representatives of Academia. is Council was given the role of formulating the overall policy for disaster risk management and functioned as the national coordinating body for disaster management. e roles and responsibilities of the National, Prefecture and Municipal Governments as well as community organizations and citizens regarding disaster risk reduction were clearly defined and the three layers of governments were obliged to make their master plans for disaster risk reduction. Also all the Ministries and semi-public sectors, such as electricity, gas, railway, bus and forwarder companies were obliged to make their sectoral disaster management plans. e Cabinet must submit annual official report to the National Diet, regarding the status of disaster risk management and the budgetary allocations to disaster risk reduction programs. e National Diet, both in the lower house and the upper house formed a special commi ee for disaster management, have continued to monitor governmental efforts for disaster risk reduction. Hence, even in years when no major disaster occurred, disaster risk management was always put on the national political agenda, and thus mainstreamed disaster risk reduction in the national policy and as a result, helped in securing the stability of financial basis for disaster risk reduction. is Basic Act proved to be quite effective in addressing not only the emergency response but also prevention/mitigation, preparedness and recovery/reconstruction, all the four phases of disaster risk reduction through a multi-sectoral approach. In addition, in 1960, the Erosion and Flood Control Emergency Measures Act was legislated to enhance preventive works, in 1962, the Act Concerning Special Financial Aid to Deal with Disaster was legislated to assist local governments for recovery. (Nishikawa, 2007) Figure 4: Number of casualties by natural disasters in Japan , source Cabinet Office Furthermore, this Basic Act was effective in calling for pre-disaster investment. Based on the bi er lessons of Isewan Typhoon, Japan Meteorological Agency decided to mount a meteorological radar on top of Mt. Fuji, the highest (3776 meters) & single peak mountain of Japan which

105 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March makes it ideal location for long range radars. Mt. Fuji radar started operation in 1964, covering 800km radius. A large scale dam was planned in the upstream of Ibi river, one of the three major river flowing into Ise bay to prevent flooding of Nagoya and a er decades of negotiations for local concensus, Japan Water Agency constructed the Tokuyama Dam in Tokuyama Dam has a reservoir capacity of 660 million tons and is the largest dam in Japan and is capable of storing a full rainfall of a typhoon in its upstream 245km2 basin area and thus protect its downstream Nagoya. In addition, 1 September, the day Tokyo was devastated by the Great Kanto Earthquake and also the day which the typhoons are most frequent to land on Japan, was designated as Disaster Prevention Day in 1960 and hence, every year, public awareness programs for disaster risk reduction are conducted. Another significance of the the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act was the organization of the Central Disaster Management Council, where the incorporation of latest scientific & technical knowledge for disaster risk reduction was institutionalized. e Central Disaster Management Council will always have representatives of the scientific community in its main council, as well as to invite various scientists and practitioners in its subcommi ees. Whenever there is a major problem in addressing disaster risk reduction is newly identified, a special sub-commi ee will be organized inviting various scientists and practitioners relevant to the new issue. is se ing enables to reflect the latest scientific and technological knowledge into policy formulation. With these efforts, although the number of typhoons a acking Japan has not changed in average over the last 70 years, the number of casualties by natural disasters has greatly decreased (figure 4). 4. Challenges of Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction in Modern Japan 4.1. Earthquakes, another threat to Japanese people Since the Japanese archipelago is located in the boundaries of three tectonic plates, the Eurasia, the Pacific and the Phillipines plates, it is frequenly hit by earthquakes and tsunamis. Table 3 shows the list of earthquakes and/or tsunamis between 1945 and e three earthquakes in 1945, 1946 and 1948 were deadly, claiming thousands of lives by collapsed houses and subsequent urban fires. Table 3: Casualties by earthquakes & tsunamis Year Earthquake Magnitude Death Toll 1945 Mikawa Earthquake Nankai Earthquake Fukui Earthquake Tokachi-oki Earthquake Tsunami by Chile Earthquake (9.5) Niigata Earthqauke Tokachi-oki Earthquake Izu-hanto-oki Earthquake 1978 Izu-Oshima Kinkai Earthquake Miyagi-ken-oki Earthquake Nihonkai Chubu Earthquake & Tsunami 1984 Nagano-ken Seibu Earthquake 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki Earthquake & Tsunami 1995 Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake Every time these earthquake brought havoc, thorough scientific investigation on the causes of the destruction to houses and buildings were made. Seismic building standards were revised based on these findings. Table 4 shows the list of major earthquakes which triggerred these revision. e 1968 Tokachi-oki earthquake and the 1978 Miyagi-ken-oki earthquake showed serious structural damage to modern RC and SRC buildings. In 1981, based on these findings, the Building Standard Law was fully revised to make buildings meet the following requirements; No damage aginst medium scale ( gal ground motion) earthquakes, To be able to continue use a er these medium earthquakes, No collapse & safety of people inside against large scale ( gal ground motion) earthquakes. is 1981 revision, later showed its significance when Kobe was hit by a major earthquake in Table 4: Earthquakes which brought major evolution of Japan s anti-seismic building code Year Earthquake Magnitude Casualties Sesmic building standards 1923 Great Kanto M First Seismic Building Code 1948 Fukui M7.1 3, Building Standard Law 1968 Tokachi-oki M Miyagi-ken-oki M Revision of Building Standard Law

106 100 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e second epoch-making turning point 1995 the Great Hanshin-Awaji(Kobe) Earthquake Early in the morning of 17 January 1995, a strong M7.3 earthquake hit the City of Kobe and its vicinity. e epicenter was shallow, approx. 12km in depth; the active fault ran directly beneath the center of Kobe. is is called the the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. e collapse of buildings and subsequent fires killed e total number of casualties, including indirect deaths tolled to is was the worst natural disaster for Japan since the 1959 Ise-wan Typhoon. e sixth floor of Kobe city hall building was crushed, the Hyogo prefecture Government building was cracked. Local fire and police stations were heavily damaged, local city offices which were designated as emergency command stations also damaged and lost electricity, thus paralyzing the initial local Government response command for a few hours. e passable roads in Kobe were jammed with cars, since the initial traffic control was not strictly enforced, thus delaying ambulance and firefighters. e bo om up damage reporting system formed in 1961, from municipal Government to prefecture Government and then to National Government, also the three layered response system, first the municipal Government, then the prefecture respond at the request of the mayor, then at the request of the governor the national Government respond, did not function, since the initial responders themselves lost base and were not able to grasp the entire damage. Later in the morning, when the daylight came, the aerial footage from NHK (the public broadcasting TV) helicopter showed serious damage, however the casualty reports from local Governments to Tokyo counted for less than 100, which showed the malfunctioning of the reporting system.(nishikawa, 1995) e Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake was the first major natural disaster to hit the center of a large modern metropolis, and revealed the weaknesses of the 1961 system. Numerous lessons were learnt from this earthquake. e Japanese Government thoroughly reviewed the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act and made a major revision in 1995 mainly focusing on the immediate response system. For example, if in case of a major disaster and if the Prime Minister sees that the damage is overwhelming the capacity of the local Government, he can immediately mobilize the national defense force without the request from the governor. e Prime Minister is also given the power to create an on-site emergency coordination headquarters and designate the head. New decision supporting systems, damage estimation systems, emergency communication systems, using GIS and latest IT tools were developed. Whenever a strong earthquake was observed, the damage estimation system would be automatically activated to determine the scale of the human casualties and building damage to give guidance to the immediate response. New research programs for earthquake science were launched. Nationwide investigations of active faults were launched and the results were published as a map. It showed that all 47 prefectures of Japan have active faults and urged all local Governments to be aware of this fact and revise their local disaster management plans accordingly. Institutional arrangements for disaster management were enhanced. A new high ranking position, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary for Crisis Management was created. In January 2001, on the occasion of National Government Reform, a new position, Minister of State for Disaster Management was created in the Cabinet Office to be in charge of inter-ministerial planning and coordination. e Minister would act on behalf of the Prime Minister who is the chair of the Central Disaster Management Council and is the advocate for disaster risk reducton at the political level and will be the controller and coordinator of the response. is Minster s presence upgraded the status of disaster risk reducton policy at the national level New initiatives for public awareness launched Prior to the 1995 Earthquake, many Japanese believed that, it would be the Tokai (the area between Tokyo and Nagoya) and the Tokyo Metropolitan areas which would be hit by major earthquakes in the near future. Especially the citizens of Kobe erroneously believed that they do not face the risk of earthquakes, simply because they have not experienced small earthquakes in their living memory. However, the lifetime of human beings is far shorter than the recurrence period of extreme natural events. erefore it is absolutely necessary to inherit the lessons learnt from disasters over the generations and also to share them across geographical boundaries. e Disaster Reduction and Human Innovation Institution (DRI) was newly organized by the Hyogo Prefectural Government with the financial and technical support from the Cabinet Office and opened in April 2002 together with its museum facility in Kobe, with the aim to meet such necessity, in particular to hand down the experience of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake to younger generations and best use the lessons learned from the Earthquake in future disaster management initiatives. DRI commits itself to create a disaster management culture, improve local capacities for disaster risk reduction, support planning of disaster management policies and help realize a safe and secure community in which citizens work together for disaster risk reduction. DRI also aims to play a pivotal role in developing and disseminating effective and overall countermeasures against disaster, and to serve as a center for research and study of disaster risk management. When a disaster occurs, DRI s researchers are dispatched to the affected areas to support the local government and offer their disaster management methodology. DRI museum exhibits the devastation by the Earthquake, the sufferings of the people and the reconstruction process. e Earthquake survivors are always available at the exhibition space as volunteers to explain their own personal experiences to the visitors with their own words. DRI has become one of the most popular site visits for junior high school excursions. In May 2003, for the sake of extracting valuable lessons from historical disasters, the Central Disaster Management Council decided to commission the Special Com-

107 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Analyzing Risk and Disaster in Megaurban Systems - Experiences from Mumbai and Jakarta PETERS, Gerrit a, BUTSCH, Carsten b, KRACHTEN, Franziska c, KRAAS, Frauke d, SRIDHARAN, Namperumal e, and MARFAI, Muh Aris f a Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, gerrit.peters@uni-koeln.de b Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, butschc@uni-koeln.de c Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, franziska.krachten@uni-koeln.de d Institute of Geography, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany, f.kraas@uni-koeln.de e School for Planning and Architecture, Vijawyawada, India, dr.nsridharan@gmail.com f Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, arismarfai@gadjahmada.edu Abstract e inherent qualities of megacities call for specific risk analysis and specific strategies and capabilities in megaurban disaster management. As megaurbanization proceeds at a hitherto unprecedented pace, the vulnerability of the world s largest metropolises and the risk accumulated in them is gradually being understood. However, megaurban risk and disaster management are yet to be developed and established as full-fledged concepts. us far, empirically based knowledge and tools are scarce. e framework we introduce allows for an analytical approach to megaurban risk and disaster based on a systemic understanding of megacities as complex adaptive systems (CAS). Implications of our conceptualization are discussed using findings of empirical research on flooding in Mumbai/India and Jakarta/Indonesia. e application of the framework illustrates its potential for an improved understanding of root causes and effects of megaurban risk and disaster, amplifying factors that increase the impact of megaurban disasters and secondary risks that occur in the a ermaths of megaurban disasters. At the same time the CAS-framework allows for identifying options available for dealing with risk and disasters. Keywords Risk, disaster, megacities, system analysis, Mumbai, Jakarta 1. Introduction is paper discusses the added value of a systemic perspective on megaurban risk and disaster. We argue that megacities are not only characterized through their population size and spatial extension but also through a hitherto unknown level of complexity, which urges us to change our perspective in the context of megaurban risk analyses and disaster management. e paper starts with a brief outlook on current urbanization processes, the development of megacities and how these processes affect India and Indonesia. en, common concepts of risk and disaster are discussed against the background of megaurbanization, aiming at identifying the specifics of megaurban risk and disaster beyond those arising from being localized in a megacity. Subsequently, a systems theory perspective on megaurbanization and megaurban risk and disaster is unfolded, which is expedient in understanding their complex nature. Arguing that megacities can be adequately captured as complex adaptive systems (CAS), key concepts and terminology of systems theory are transferred to the disaster context. Findings of empirical research on floods in Mumbai and Jakarta are used to exemplify these conceptual assumptions and to translate the analytical framework into real risk and disaster scenarios. e paper concludes by examining the potentials of a systemic approach for understanding megaurban risk and disaster and illustrating the benefits of this perspective for developing strategies toward increasing megaurban resilience. 2. Megaurbanization and Risk e scale and complexity of urbanization in the 21st century are unprecedented in human history. e world s urban population is predicted to grow from 3.9 billion in 2014 to 6.3 billion by 2050 (UNDESA, 2014: 20). is growth will almost entirely take place in the countries of the Global South, where the majority of megacities are and will be located. eir number is projected to increase from

108 108 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March in 2014 to 41 in 2030¹. Furthermore, in 2014, megacities were home to 12% of the world s urban population (Ibid.: 13). In Asia, there are currently 14 megaurban agglomerations and in addition to that eight cities are expected to cross the threshold of ten million inhabitants by 2030 (Ibid.: 26). India s urbanization rate in 2014 was only 32%; however, three of its cities classify as megacities (Delhi 24.9 million, Mumbai 20.7 million, Kolkata 14.7 million) (Ibid.: 22, 26). Indonesia, with 50.7% of its population living in cities, has only one megacity, the DKI Jakarta (Daerah Khusus Ibukota/Special Capital Region) with million inhabitants (Ibid.: 22, 26). is city is the center of Southeast Asia s most populated urban agglomeration o en referred to as Jabodetabek or Jabodetabekjur (an acronym derived from the names of the cities Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi and Cianjur that have grown together), which is home to more than 28 million people (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2013). Parallel to the rapid global urbanization, in the last decades a significant increase in fatalities and economic losses due to natural and socio-natural hazards has been registered worldwide (Kraas 2003). e main reasons for this increase are the growing number and vigor of extreme weather events and current urbanization dynamics. ese dynamics have arisen because cities, which are o en situated in disaster prone areas, have accumulated an increasing amount of capital and goods, resulting in increased damage per event on average (Swiss Re, 2013). Urban agglomerations face different types of hazards, which can be categorized by the nature of the trigger event: natural, socio-natural, or human-induced. With regard to natural hazards (e.g. volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis), out of the 23 existing megacities in 2011, nine showed a high exposure to one natural hazard, seven were highly exposed to two natural hazards and one megacity (Manila) was counted in the 3+ category (UNDESA, 2012). A comparable assessment of megacities with regard to their exposure to human-induced hazards (e.g. environmental degradation, resource shortages, financial crises, technological failure, terrorism, ideological conflicts) poses a more difficult analytical approach and has, to our knowledge, not been undertaken (and of course, any analyses of human-induced hazards would be short-lived in comparison to those of natural hazards). Nevertheless, it can be assumed that high functionality, concentration, density, (global) interconnectedness and other scale factors characterizing megacities increase the probability of a disaster occurring. e term socio-natural hazard, which describes the circumstances where human activity is increasing the occurrence of certain hazards beyond their natural probabilities (UNISDR, 2009: 27), is particularly relevant in megaurban se ings, where the natural environment is largely overlaid by a human-made landscape. While distinguishing between different types of hazards on the basis of their origin proves reasonable, it hardly makes sense for disasters (Wisner, 2007; Felgentreff and Glade, 2008). erefore, in this context, the term natural disaster is rejected (Felgentreff and Glade, 2008) and should be replaced by the term Zivilisationsfolgekatastrophe (civilization-induced disaster; Kraas, 2012: 58). e la er term catches the rationale that every disaster is the result of the societal embedding in which the hazard occurs. Besides, as cities are specific witnesses of the inherent characteristic of each culture and civilization, the term emphasizes the socio-cultural urban context s importance. Risk in megacities of the Global South is not only determined by the megacity s location in space resulting in a specific exposure to hazards (e.g. due to the proximity to coastlines or tectonic fault lines, climate zones etc.), but also and even more significantly determined by diverse social, political, economic, ecological and cultural processes, which interfere and influence each other. e scale and dynamism of these processes create challenges that o en remain unmet: e.g., the provision of basic amenities such as safe drinking water, enough (quantity and composition o ) food, adequate shelter, sanitation, reliable occupation, access to basic services such as health care and education, not to mention emergency capacities for increasing and denser populations. Vulnerability differs between megacities in relation to their ability to meet these development challenges. Within megaurban populations, the internal gradient of vulnerability is closely related to socioeconomic disparities, with the poor usually being most vulnerable. Yet, megaurban complexity opens up opportunities for coping with risk. e embedding in global networks, the accumulation of financial and other resources, and the often dominant position (economically, politically and culturally) of a megacity in the national, regional and even global contexts results in a concentration of power (and political will), allowing for coping with disasters quickly, at least on the surface. In addition, the diversification, deconcentration and strong interconnectedness of services in megacities constitute an important resilience factor. In our two case studies, which will be discussed in detail in section 4, flood events resulted in a severe disruption of the traffic and supply systems and the economy. Although these functions were restored quickly and the formal systems recovered fast, a closer look on the sublocal scale reveals that especially the poor suffered from the economic losses long a er the direct effects (infrastructural damages, supply shortages, ill-health, etc.) had been dealt with. While on a systemic level megacities recover fast, certain subgroups (subsystems) may need much more time to reach their status ex ante or never do so. e disruption of the development paths of poor communities (e.g. through the loss of livelihoods and assets poverty is perpetuated and the communities baseline vulnerability increased) in a long-term perspective also weakens the city as a whole, due to the connections within the urban system. Furthermore, megaurban complexity and embeddedness across scales raise the potential of a ermaths on a regional, national and even inter- ¹ e paper employs the ten million threshold used by the United Nations (UNDESA 2014) to define megacities quantitatively.

109 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March national scale. When the hubs of global urbanism are disrupted by a natural, socio-natural or human-induced hazards along with high number of victims, loss of livelihoods, resources and (critical) infrastructure, the functional primacy of megacities bears the potential for farreaching effect. us, in megacities the ambivalent pinnacles of urbanization the occurrence of a hazard can set off disasters of exceptional magnitude and complexity. 3. A Systemic Framework for Megaurban Risk and Disaster Disasters are rarely simple cause and effect events; their genesis is usually complex. It is argued here that the interactions between various factors that turn an event or hazard into a disaster can be understood be er if a system perspective is applied especially in se ings characterized by a high level of complexity. Additionally, this perspective allows for following up on the multiple consequences and especially the long-term a ermaths scales triggered by one event across scales (from local to global). In this section, an approach toward framing megacities from a system perspective is outlined and possibilities for translating this understanding to the megaurban risk and disaster context discussed. First, the understanding of megacities as systems has to be clarified. A empts to establish a general system theory date back to the 1940s (Wirth, 1979; Seiffert, 2003; Ra er and Treiling, 2008). e vision of the pioneers of system theory von Bertalanffy and Wiener was to develop a meta-theory of sciences beyond the dichotomy of natural and social sciences (Egner et al., 2008). eir ideas were quickly adopted in the scientific community. Several strands of system theories developed, though system theory did not become a meta-theory of all sciences, as hoped for initially. e various strands of system theory that have been developed over the last 70 years can be broadly categorized in three main levels of systemic understanding (Simon, 2006): First level systems consist of a defined number of inanimate elements and following the rules of thermodynamics strive to reach an equilibrium state. Earlier a empts in modeling urban systems and most urban metabolism (Wolman, 1965) approaches refer to such a rather cybernetic system conception. Although these systems have become established concepts for analyzing flows of ma er and energy in cities, they seldom adequately address institutional frameworks, the social dimension and relevance of the resource flows or the highly dynamic and changing nature of urban systems (Bohle, 1994). Second level systems complex systems consist of inanimate and/or animate elements. ey operate according to the three axioms of chaos-theory. 1) eir behavior is unforeseeable due to the high number of interlinkages and feedback-mechanisms. 2) As a result, minimal changes can trigger maximum changes. 3) ese dynamic systems will produce pa erns and organizational structures if the external influences (e.g. inflow of energy and ma er) remain unchanged. rough selforganization, so-called dissipative systems can exist in a steady state far from thermodynamic equilibrium. is understanding of systems is, for example, the foundation of recent urban simulation models relying on methods such as cellular automata, agent-based models or network models (Ba y, 2011; Portugali, 2011). Nevertheless, these models, trying to bring urban dynamics into simulations, miss the qualitative message of complexity theory for urban research. Implications of complexity for planning are ignored, and the role and the dynamics of civil society are not included in these types of models. By applying purely quantitative models, the explanatory potential of complexity theory for the organization of cities has been neglected; it has hardly been used to find qualitative approaches to understanding the urban (Portugali, 2011). ird level systems produce the elements they consist of themselves (autopoiesis). ese autopoietic systems, such as organisms, psychological systems or social systems, can consist of animate or inanimate elements. Parsons (1951) and Luhmann (1984) promoted this understanding of systems as entities demarcating boundaries towards their environment autonomously through selfreference and autopoiesis. ird level systems, hence, differ widely from level one and two systems as they are produced and reproduced only by their own elements. However, especially Luhmann s system conception is rarely applied in urban analysis, as it focuses on social systems, making it difficult to incorporate non-social phenomena. Researchers have applied system understandings of all three levels to analyze cities. From a disaster management perspective a second level understanding based on complexity theory seems to be best suited. As long as they are not reduced to quantitative models, conceiving megacities as complex adaptive systems (CAS), operating at the edge of chaos, offers a unique slant for understanding the megaurbanization-risk-disaster-nexus. Kauffman (1990) points out that structures in CAS coevolve. On the one hand, planners can guide this coevolution, for example, by adapting to new technologies and new risks and reacting to changes in population size etc. However, on the other hand this co-evolution means that it is impossible to foresee all possible developments, as any element in the system can potentially through different cascades change the operating domain of the system as a whole. is panarchical perspective (panarchy being the antithesis to hierarchy) challenges for example top-down planning philosophies and directs our attention towards tipping points, path dependencies and the possibility of different potential temporary equilibrium states. In the following section, the CAS understanding is transported to the disaster context. e widely acknowledged UNISDR (2009) definition of disaster then means the disruption of a temporary steady state of the CAS to an extent that makes external help necessary. Such a disruption can occur as a system disaster (disturbing the entire city, which to our knowledge so far never occurred in a megacity) or as a subsystem disaster (affecting either functional subsystems such as traffic, electricity grid etc. in the whole city or all functional subsystems in a spa-

110 110 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 1: Analytic framework for megaurban risk and disaster tially defined area within the city). In contrast to management centered frameworks (such as the disaster risk management cycle; Alexander, 2002) or function centered approaches (such as critical infrastructure assessments), the CAS perspective s broadness results in five distinct features: 1) the relation between existing structures, processes and actors is the basis of the analysis; therefore 2) risk is understood as the product of cumulative causation and 3) analysis considers the effect of each action, therefore chain reactions, potentially resulting in higher loss and damage, can be anticipated in a be er way 4) disaster recovery is not automatically meant to restore the ex ante status, but a different (ideally more resilient) steady state of the system is regarded as valid, too, and 5) indirect long-term effects of disasters can be grasped be er. Figure 1 visualizes our transfer of system thinking into the megaurban risk and disaster context. e upper part illustrates the configuration of megaurban risk, as related to risk governance. e disaster itself creates a new risk configuration, therefore, the lower part shows the potential a ermaths of a disaster, as a function of the effectiveness of disaster response. e upper sphere in Figure 1 shows that megaurban risk, potentially resulting in a civilization-induced disaster, is constituted and augmented by complex-interwoven risk factors, either immediate or mediate (first-degree, second-degree, etc.). Immediate risk factors (IF) directly shape the conditions that turn a specific hazard into a disaster, e.g., a low capacity of storm water drains results in flooding during heavy rains. Mediate risk factors (MF) influence or constitute primary risk factors, e.g., pollution of storm water drains and their dilapidated state results in a reduction of their capacity. Sometimes these connections are more obvious, sometimes they are less obvious, and in many cases they take effect through a complex cascading path via different system elements. In this logic, shortcomings, such as of urban waste-management, can be seen as mediate risk factor for floods, as they may force communities or households to dispose of their waste in which ever way is feasible, for example, by dumping it in rivers, canals or drains. ereby they unwillingly decrease the run-off capacity, thus elevating the risk of flooding. ese configurations of different mediate risk factors and their interlinkages, constituting or adding to one immediate risk factor, are called here risk subcomplexes. e entirety of subcomplexes, immediate risk factors, amplifying factors and their configuration, determining one primary risk (PR) is called here risk complex. Certainly one could deliberate extensively about the boundaries of these risk complexes in an open system.

111 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Reality shows that causality of megaurban disasters can usually be traced back across multiple scales, pointing to meta-causes such as the north-south divide, distributional injustice, global environmental change etc. Nevertheless, to actually apply this concept on the ground, these metacauses can only be regarded as external premises that cannot be influenced by local risk governance (at least not in the short run). For effective risk governance, the analysis of risk complexes instead of focusing exclusively on the immediate risk factors is essential. Tracing these root causes not only requires a change in thinking but also the will (and the capacities) for substantial structural changes. In CAS, risks are o en not constituted but amplified by unpredictable and unknown mediate risk factors or interlinkages. ese unforeseeable factors are owed to the circumstance that in a complex system 1) one action can produce different results (behavioral complexity) and 2) the various consequences triggered through multiple connections by one action are hard to predict as not all connections are obvious and o en they are indirect ( bu erfly effect ). At the center of Figure 1 is the civilization-induced disaster, which marks in a generalized temporal perspective the turning point between risk governance and disaster response and recovery. e civilization-induced disaster can trigger 1) direct and indirect effects, 2) risk chains and 3) risk cascades. e immediate consequences (primary effects, PE) are determined by the type of hazard that triggered the disaster. ese immediate effects can be increased through internal or external amplifiers (amplifying factors, AF) and through negative feedbacks. One amplifier for the disaster impact would be shortcomings in disaster response capacities. is was explicitly addressed by consulted disaster management professionals in the context of the nexus between megaurbanization and low probability/high consequence events that might affect large population numbers. Additionally, primary effects can directly lead to further, secondary, effects. A risk chain occurs, when the effects of a disaster constitute new hazards, i.e. secondary risk factors, which might also trigger secondary effects (SE) through direct linear pathways. ese could then of course trigger tertiary risk factors (TF), tertiary effects (TE) and so on. Secondary risk factors can either be a direct consequence of the disaster, resulting from the interaction of different consequences of a disaster or be the product of direct effect interacting with preexisting features. To illustrate this idea: following the destruction of buildings by an earthquake (hazard/trigger), traffic might collapse (SE), as the debris blocks roads, resulting in problems for disaster response, provision of first aid, potable water, food, etc. (TE). Risk cascades are similarly triggered but unfold through multiple and complex pathways in a non-linear fashion. ey pose an enormous challenge for disaster response as they potentially can lead to a systemic crisis or multiple disasters and are difficult to predict and prevent. An example for a risk cascade is the array of events unleashed by the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake that hit Japan, causing a tsunami (SF) which resulted among other adversities in the Fukushima meltdown (TF) a multiple disaster. A CAS perspective seems to offer added value, especially for predicting potential harm from risk chains and risk cascades. It emphasizes that not only the primary effects need to be well-known and taken into consideration but also the multiple possible ways in which primary effects of a disaster can add to other risks and trigger further disastrous events. is perspective compels disaster managers to think holistically in order to learn and adapt for preventing crises. In the next section, this framework is applied in the analysis of past flooding events in Jakarta and Mumbai. 4. e Case Studies - Jakarta and Mumbai Floods e empirical research of the two case studies of this paper was conducted in It referred to major flooding events both cities had experienced (Mumbai 2005, Jakarta 2007). ree research sites in Jakarta (Kebon Baru, Glodok and Muara Angke) and another three in Mumbai (Shastri Nagar, Vashinaka, Vakola/Ashok Nagar) served as examples for a vast number of flood-affected areas in the cities. In both cases, the approach was centered on the assessment of factors that configure the local risk complex and the disasters multiple effects for the studied neighborhoods, the cities as a whole and the changes in risk perception, risk management and disaster management following these events. Expert and in-depth interviews, surveys and a set of participative methods were conducted in the neighborhoods. Findings generated with these methods were triangulated in the analysis. e pre-existing risk constellations of the two case studies were analyzed and the primary, secondary and tertiary risk factors for the flood event identified. is categorization of factors naturally has to be case specific, since the same factor, which is a primary factor for flooding (e.g. the dimension of storm-water drains) becomes a secondary factor (or tertiary factor and so forth) if the focus of the analysis shi s and health problems are the concern (e.g. this might contribute to mosquito breeding). In addition, the events concrete effects were analyzed Jakarta Floods e most visible and publicly perceived risk in Jakarta is flooding. In the past, severe flood events, such as the 2007 event that is described in detail, used to occur about every five years. ey resulted in vast areas of the megacity being flooded for days, sometimes weeks, bringing public life to a near standstill. In 2013 and 2014, severe flooding occurred in two successive years. Additionally, minor floods occurred several times a year, affecting especially socioeconomically weak communities that had developed on flood prone riverbanks. e 2007 flood, spanning over roughly three weeks from January 31 until February 22, was until this date the most severe flood event the city had ever experienced. About two thirds of the city was flooded with water levels in some areas of up to four meters. More than 50 people lost their lives (WHO, 2007). According to estimates, people (Ibid.) had to leave their homes

112 112 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 and were evacuated to emergency shelters in mosques, schools and other public buildings not counting those who found shelter in relatives homes. Economic damages added up to about $967 million (Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2008). Disaster management decisions taken during the flood proved to be highly politicized, as flood gates were opened to protect the government quarter, causing massive flooding in neighboring areas inhabited largely by socioeconomically disadvantaged communities. Inundation and flooding have been a concern since the city then known as Batavia was founded under Dutch colonial rule, as records reaching back to 1619 illustrate (Cybriwsky and Ford, 2001; Zaenuddin, 2013). However, annual floods experienced by Jakarta during monsoon season (October - May), predominantly in January and February, today show a much more complex causation than those documented in historical accounts. During recent major flood events, the configuration of the risk complex has been very similar and the mediate risk factors are well known to experts and affected population groups alike: heavy monsoonal downpours (trigger/hazard) hit the city during a tidal high (IF). As large parts of the city lie below sea level, outflow capacities are reduced, resulting in inundation. is regularly occurring hazard turned into a disaster through cumulative effects of other factors: e drainage system could not absorb the amount of water, due to its dimensions and condition (IF). Severe pollution, siltation, channeling and narrowing of rivers, canals and drains through human activities decrease the capacities of existing drainage facilities considerably (MF1), and a lack of willingness to take responsibility among local population and government (MF2) was identified as a strong catalyst for the drainage system s deterioration. Due to the area s topography (MF1), with the DKI Jakarta spreading over the lowest elevation zone within the Jakarta Basin, run-off from the catchment areas of Jakarta s 13 rivers is directed towards the city. Additionally the total run-off and the run-off peaks have increased due to a reduction of infiltration capacity: Rampant urban sprawl led to deforestation in large areas of Jakarta s hinterland, loss of flood plains along rivers and land sealing on the slopes of the Jakarta basin; erosion, also due to deforestation, is leading to silting up of existing waterways (MF2). e run off is slowed down once it reaches the city, thus furthering the accumulation of water (IF), due to land reclamation in previous centuries (MF2). e city s coastline has constantly been moved northbound, prolonging the course of waterways before they disgorge into Jakarta Bay (MF1). e waterways downhill gradient and run-off rate is thereby decreased. Especially in the reclamation areas, land subsidence is a serious concern, increasing the exposure to local flooding. Groundwater extraction for providing water to an increasing residential and commercial demand and compaction of the so soils and medium stiff soils found in the Jakarta Basin (Irsyam et al., 2008) by the buildings surcharge add to rapidly progressing land subsidence (MF1). Locally, subsidence rates of up to 32 cm per year have been registered (Abidin et al., 2009). e expanse of low-lying highly flood-prone areas is therefore constantly growing (IF). Informal and non-registered se lements located on riverbanks accounting for about 20% of Jakarta s settled area at the time of the 2007 flood (Ooi, 2008) add to the narrowing of waterways. However, not only the settlement activities of marginalized groups increase the risk of flooding (IF). It has been observed that the construction of prestigious upper and upper-middle class real estate on the coastline, for which the ground has been artificially raised as a mitigation measure, increased flooding in adjacent areas (IF). Flood disasters such as the 2007 event happen in Jakarta when a combination of factors coincides and intensifies when amplifying factors unfold their impact. Once a certain threshold of flooding is crossed, the city s narrow street pa ern serves as such an amplifying factor: When flooded, the narrow alleys create dangerous whirlpools and undertows, frequently responsible for drowning, thus directly increasing the severity of direct effects. Additionally, this street pa ern poses a challenge for effective risk governance since heavy search and rescue equipment or aid resources cannot reach the affected areas. Commonly only accessed by alleys of about 1-2 meter in width, much of the inner-city neighbourhoods (kampungs) stay inaccessible and thus isolated for days a er flooding sets in. As the head of a red cross organization in Jakarta stated: e emergency response system is in a wretched state. Probably the only way to do it, if it is even wanted here in Jakarta, would be by helicopter. Insufficient local disaster response capacities do not allow for preventing primary effects, risk cascades and risk chains. While there are a large number of state-run and civil society organizations involved in disaster response in Jakarta, their coordination is o en not sufficient and commonly not all flooded areas benefit from their efforts, as interviews with affected communities showed. Moreover, there is a discrepancy in many cases between the technical resources available and qualified personnel for their operation, which is o en the limiting factor here. Another aspect related to disaster management is the lack of confidence of the population in disaster management authorities: False tsunami warnings, raised by criminals in several riparian and coastal communities with the intent to rob abandoned homes, have created mistrust and reluctance to evacuate. is reluctance has been increased by experiences with looting (SE) during past flood events. erefore male family members o en stay behind to guard their homes, exposing themselves to considerable dangers. As a resident stated: ey evacuate children and women and the men guard their belongings by staying on the roo ops to keep burglars away. Effects of the 2007 flood were manifold: e primary causes of death were drowning and with even more incidents electrocution (SE). Electrocution during flooding occurs mostly as a result of illegal, makeshi tapping of power supply lines and due to delayed cu ing of power supply lines by network operators. In this case, the direct effect (water logging) interacts with a pre-existing condition of the risk complex (deficits of the power supply infrastructure). Following the 2007 event, the number of infectious diseases (SE) rose, which was observed to happen

113 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March whenever floods last longer than two days (WHO, 2007). Due to the collapse of the water supply and sanitation (PE), the population suffered from water-borne diseases such as cholera, typhoid, dysentery, hepatitis and diarrhea (SE). Additionally, stagnant water served as a breeding ground for mosquitoes (SF). e population was therefore exposed to vector-borne diseases such as dengue hemorrhagic fever. Acute gastro-enteritis and dengue hemorrhagic fever were the two major causes of death. In addition, dermatitis and eye infections regularly occurred (SE). Another secondary effect was the temporary loss of shelter for a large number of people. Temporary loss of livelihoods together with the costs of recovery put a substantial financial burden on affected families. Furthermore, prices for potable water and food prices increased steeply as vendors saw supply and demand shi ing in their favor. In this situation, the affected families did not only lose their regular sources of supply but also had to indebt themselves to buy food basics. e closure of education and child care facilities required parents to look a er their children themselves. is restricted at least one parent from going to work while children missed days or even weeks of curricula. With the vast majority of families in the selected study areas having no insurances at all, floods bring long-term economic impairment and perpetuating poverty (TE). Psychological effects as tertiary effects of flood disasters, especially on children, are o en overlooked in assessments and are not properly addressed in response and recovery but were emphasized by almost all parents participating in the study. Emotional trauma and fear among children that the mass of water could return at any given time are hardly ever a ended to in the wake of a flood (own interviews with experts and lay persons ). ere are several large-scale infrastructure and policy measures that are being discussed (e.g. renaturation of the Ciliwung; construction of further flood canals; a proposed ban on plastic bags that strongly contribute to the clogging of the drainage system etc.), about to be initiated (e.g. the Jakarta Sea Wall Project, a large damn in the Jakarta Bay for lowering the sea level on the city s coastline) or ongoing (e.g. early-warning systems monitoring water levels; planes equipped for weather modification, resettlement of riparian communities; dredging of waterways). e probability of flood disasters in Jakarta will increase until these measures unfold a positive impact. Until then, a substantial part of disaster preparedness, response and recovery will have to be borne by the affected population itself, as other past events have shown that governmental disaster response does not reach all areas in a timely and adequate manner, if at all. e informal institution of gotong royong, a help system among neighbors that is rooted in Indonesia s culture, is among the major assets of the megaurban CAS, since this form of self-organization adds to the city s resilience. However, this traditional social capital is steadily being eroded in Jakarta, as the city s society is growing more pluralistic and individualistic. A decrease in social cohesion, dividing society along ethnic, confessional and socio-economic lines, has been observed, adding to Jakarta s overall risk: Social sensitivity is actually a big value. So if you cannot have this self-help and co-helping with others it is going to be a major problem. Because a city can actually be resilient if it also depends on self-help of the population. It Jakarta is a melting pot. And it is really dynamic. It is very in-homogeneous. And there is a really wide gap between the haves and the have-nots. It s gonna be a big problem, as a senior researcher of a national research institute explained. Given the current rates of land subsidence, sea-level rise and annual flooding and the limited impact of measures taken a er the 2007 flood, as reflected in the reoccurring of severe flooding in 2013 and 2014, numerous scholars have a bleak outlook: In thirty years Jakarta will have become sea a senior scientist at a national research agency stated Mumbai floods Just like Jakarta, Mumbai is prone to annual flood events with some of the causes being similar to the situation in Jakarta. e monsoon climate brings cloudbursts during the rainy season (June to September), large areas of the city are land reclamation areas, with a low elevation above sea level and the city s drainage system is insufficient. ese factors result in annual flood events during which affected areas are flooded with depths between 0.5m and 1.5m (Gupta, 2009: 241). Primary effects are loss of property and among the secondary effects are health problems for a large proportion of the population. Malaria occurs because stagnant water provides ideal breeding ground for malaria-transmi ing mosquitoes and diarrheal diseases arise due to contamination of fresh water by sewage entering the water supply through leakages (De Sherbinin et al., 2007). As in Jakarta, these small flood events pose severe challenges for the affected populations, but do not disturb the megaurban system as a whole, as it remains on a subsystem level. In July 2005, however, large parts of Mumbai were heavily struck for several days by a civilization-induced disaster. e trigger for the largescale inundation was unusually heavy precipitation. A localized area of rainfall generated extreme rainfall values of 944 mm within 24 hours (Gupta, 2009: 240) which resulted in areal inundation of Mumbai (based on diverse sources between 20% (Government of Maharashtra, 2006a: 15) and 60% (Gupta, 2009: 243) were affected) with water levels up to three meters for more than 24 hours (Government of Maharashtra, 2006a; Gupta, 2009). is hazard turned into a disaster due to the preexisting risk complex which was constituted by following factors: Mumbai s is on average located slightly above sea level, with substantial areas of the city also being located below sea-level (IF); the drainage during high flooding is insufficient (IF). Mediate factors are the high degree of sealed surfaces resulting in decreased infiltration capacity (MF1) and deforestation of mangrove forest (MF1), which served as natural flood-protection (Vijay et al., 2005). ese factors are related to tertiary factors such as the steep population increase from migration during the last decades, which, because of lack of financial subsidiarity, resulted in lack of investment in a new and depilation

114 114 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 of the existing infrastructure (Gupta, 2009). e sewage network of the city for example dates back to colonial times and was designed for a much smaller population. erefore the existing drainage system is forced to transport an ever-increasing amount of wastewater, eventually resulting in the loss of functionality (MF1). In addition, in 2005, the canals were blocked by random waste disposal, which prohibited the water flow. e population increase has also led to permanent se lement in low-lying flood prone areas (IF) due to the scarce availability of land on the peninsula. In the beginning of the 2005 civilization-induced disaster, a high tide acted as an amplifying factor because it reduced the already insufficient drainage capacity. An initial 4.48 m tidal wave washed additional seawater into the city s canals. A second tidal wave aggravated the situation and the flooding increased, covering large areas (Government of Maharashtra, 2006a). Another amplifying factor was the lack of information about the situation. Weather forecasts predicted approximately 125 mm precipitation in the 24 hours prior to the event; the actual amount of precipitation exceeded the original forecast by 819 mm (Ibid.: 16). Since only two rainfall stations were available, this fact became apparent quite late (Gupta, 2009). Due to the areal flooding, the city s functions collapsed almost completely. More than 200 roadkilometers were impassable for up to ten days (PE), which also greatly hindered first response- and later clean-up measures (SE) (Government of Maharashtra 2006a). e railroad network collapsed too (PE), resulting in people being unable to vacate South-Mumbai (SE). is led to severe supply shortages on the peninsula, which was cut off from the mainland (SE) (Ibid.). e airport had to be shut down completely for two days because, in addition to the main terminal, the runways were flooded by the Mithi River (PE) (Ibid.). Disaster response was hindered (SE) by the collapse of the communication network (PE). Consequently, the military was involved in the evacuation (Ibid.). e floods claimed 454 victims directly (Mumbai and Mumbai Railway; Government of Maharashtra, 2006b: 5) and through the disastrous hygiene conditions (SE) another 216 indirectly. e hygiene conditions were responsible for numerous illnesses resulting from contaminated water, water-borne pathogens and vectors (Government of Maharashtra, 2006a; Gupta, 2009). e extensive, longterm power-cuts disabled fresh water supply because they rendered the water pumps inoperable. Due to decreasing water pressure, wastewater contaminated the freshwater. is lack of fresh water also became apparent in the household surveys conducted in three affected areas: An average of 15.3% of the surveyed people stated that they did not have drinking water for more than one day, and 19% stated that they did not have electricity for more than one day. Despite areal spraying of insecticides, a significant rise in malaria cases was reported as secondary effect. Due to the destruction of pharmaceutical storage facilities, the immediate distribution of medication to the population was insufficient. Long-term health-damages due to the release of cyanide, lead and zinc from illegal industrial companies are to be expected as well (TE) (Ellenrieder, 2006). Economic losses occurred due to the stock-market closure, the loss of earnings in the secondary and tertiary sector. Furthermore, damages to production facilities (TE) were extensive and not only limited to the city itself because of Mumbai s high degree of functional and economic primacy: If suppose Mumbai stands still for a day, ok. But catastrophic impact, you know, it creates a tremendous problem for the national GDP. And therefore, you know, any hazard or any disaster in the city is not affordable for the national GDP (own expert interview). However, the shortfalls of the municipal authorities disaster management were to some extent compensated by civil involvement in a remarkable manner (selforganization within the CAS). Experts and affected communities alike reported positively on neighborly aid during the flooding events: So most people [ ] just walked home and then saw what all was in their house. You know you had one gunny-bag of rice. ey just cooked the whole thing. As long as the gas lasted there. If they had two liters of milk they made tea, if they had dhal they just cooked it, if they had vegetables they cooked the whole thing. at within one hour, and then they just brought out what they had and then everyone on the roads, stuck, just ate from it. Protected each others properties (own expert interview). Many interviewees believed that this spirit of the Mumbaikars significantly contributed to keeping negative consequences to a minimum and restoring essential functions quickly and efficiently. Real disaster relief took a long time, for example, it took four weeks to fully restore railroad traffic, the main artery of Mumbai. Following the 2005 flood, several of the public authorities measures to prevent future flooding resulted in an alteration of the risk complex. In 2006, an automated early warning system with 30 rainfall-radar-stations, which, if necessary, can send automated messages to the responsible authorities, was set up (influencing the amplifying factor lack of knowledge ). In an effort to prevent blockage of the waste water system, an extensive cleaning campaign is now conducted annually prior to the monsoon season (affecting the primary cause insufficient drainage ). However, due to insufficient capacity of landfills, only 70% of the canals could be cleaned prior to the 2010 summer monsoon season (Hindustan Times, ). e decision-making competencies were reformed with the newly developed disaster management plan (DMP) in an effort to minimize response time in case of disaster. However, the lack of definition of competencies and the strong focus of the DMP on flooding still poses weaknesses in Mumbai s disaster management capacities. Numerous technical measures were implemented (e.g. building flood protection walls and elevating roads), mobile pump stations were installed and emergency shelters established. e population also demonstrates increased awareness in handling risk situations, also because of training courses offered by the urban administration. In an effort to lower vulnerability to flooding, many citizens have implemented technical measures themselves in and around their houses (e.g. erect-

115 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ing small dams and walls in front of the entrances to their houses, moving electrical lines and water lines to higher elevations or the roo ). Due to climate change, the monsoon precipitation is expected to increase and the sea level to rise by cm (mean 47 cm) by the end of the century (IPCC AR 5 medium-high scenario RCP median scenario) (Revi, 2008; IPCC, 2013: 23). Especially the combination of heavy precipitation, tidal waves and consecutive storms constitutes an increased hazard for Mumbai. Whether the city is able to face this risk and the endangerment resulting from other hazards is largely dependent on the success of its resilience building. 5. Discussion e application of the CAS concept for the analysis of the flood events in Mumbai and Jakarta illustrates the framework s applicability and analytical value. It permits findings to be structured and underlying causes and not directly visible consequences to be identified. Flood events in both cities can be explained by the cumulative causation of various factors: monsoonal rains, their coastal location, densely populated low-lying areas, proneness to land subsidence and an overall highly artificial, humanmade environment etc. However, these are not only found in megacities. Ethnic diversity, the mélange of actors and jurisdictions or socio-economic disparities can be found in smaller scale cities. However, all the aforementioned factors cannot only be considered to be more distinct in megacities but the multiplicity and simultaneousness of processes and feedback mechanisms in the wake of ramified actor constellations result in a hitherto unprecedented level of complexity. e case studies further show that during large-scale events the primacy of megacities bears another risk the spatial concentration of resources. Response capacities and other resources (institutions, assets, experts; e.g., trauma surgeons, heavy machinery operators etc.) are typically stationed in or close to megacities, thus they might become affected or even rendered non-operational by the same disaster they are supposed to respond to. Both case studies a est that megaurban populations in the wake of civilization-induced disaster face notable intra-urban disparities in risk exposure and vulnerability between communities. Disparities in coping capacities were also observed. Although capacities and resources for disaster prevention, mitigation and recovery are available, they are insufficient to cover all affected areas. During the floods in Mumbai and Jakarta, capacities were proven to be insufficient for blanket coverage. us, their allocation was a politicized decision, and the most vulnerable communities profited least or not at all. e vulnerability of these communities was thus perpetuated in the long run. In contrast to these aspects, which point to the negative effects of megaurban size and complexity, the CASperspective also directs a ention toward positive aspects. Self-organization processes such as social networks, informal solutions and private action add to megacity resilience. In both case studies, ad hoc self-organization for response measures by affected communities was a decisive momentum during past floods when formal structures failed. Another feature of CAS is the system s capacity to learn from past events and adapt to or even anticipate changes. In both cities a number of measures were adopted a er the events, increasing the cities overall resilience, even if not all measures adopted have the same impact. Learning is a central feature of CAS and because 1) megacities are a relatively young phenomenon, 2) the constellations between megacities differ significantly in some respects, and 3) experiences with large-scale megaurban disasters are fortunately still few learning and adaptation will remain a challenge. When discussing increasing megaurban resilience, it becomes clear, that factors configuring the risk complex differ in their persistence and how easily they can be altered. While the narrow street pa ern of Jakarta s kampungs and Mumbai s slum colonies or the dimensioning of the drainage systems can only be reconfigured with substantial investments, behavioral factors might prove to be more feasible starting points for resilience building. Reasoning and learning of the system can be achieved through knowledge dissemination and capacity building among the population. Additionally, the experiential knowledge of the population usually remains largely under-utilized as it cannot easily be connected to the scientific-technical knowledge on which disaster response managers usually rely. erefore, communityactivating and -involving actions are highly valuable tools in the risk governance and disaster management kit. Also small legislative actions based on learning, such as banning plastic bags, as in Dhaka/Bangladesh (Ahmed, 2005), to improve the run-off capacity of the drainage system, can have an important impact. Planning process that ignore risks and are shortsited investments for example in prestigious waterfront development in flood-prone areas decrease resilience. O en these shortcomings are the result of pathdependencies, economic logics of profit maximization or a consequence of corruption, nepotism and cleptocratism. ese underlying causes only have a mediate influence on civilization-induced disasters, but without them hazards could not unfold such a high potential as in the two case studies. Disaster management strategies, but also development strategies in general, therefore have to be reconsidered, accepting these realities and developing new approaches toward dealing with informality. Including these important social realities in megacities of low and middle income countries is a hitherto under-utilized resource for increasing the cities resilience. Furthermore disaster management strategies have to acknowledge that complexity is a distinct feature of megaurban systems. Acknowledging this fact has two implications: 1) Risk assessment must not only be limited to the analysis of hazards but has to take secondary and tertiary factors into consideration, and disaster management has to develop an understanding of amplifying factors and consider potential secondary and tertiary effects. In doing this, negative cascading chains and cascades could be cut off at an early stage. 2) Risk minimization and disaster

116 116 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 management have to become a cross-cu ing issue when planning of cities. is cross-sectional thinking is also important for the development of scenarios. ese scenarios are needed both for risk chains and risk cascades prediction and for developing disaster response structures. Authorities are eager to be prepared for worst-case scenarios and to anticipate hazards and their effects, but events like Hurricane Katrina in 2005 or the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake revealed the limitations of imagination in worst-case scenario development. What was thought to be the worstcase was dwarfed by the devastation caused when multihazard risks culminated into multi-hazard disasters and the effects started cascading. Such black swan events (Taleb, 2007) are not only subjects of blockbuster movies but can easily become real life events. erefore disaster managers have to imagine the unexpected in order to be able to create resilient response structures. 6. Outlook Many studies on megacities have been undertaken without explicitly referring to their specific nature or aiming at understanding specific features of the megaurban. Yet, a coherent theoretical understanding of megacities has not been developed so far. e CAS perspective applied here might therefore be considered for further application in the future. e background provided by this specific branch of system theory could well strengthen the analytic depth of megacity research. Although megacities are considered to be global risk areas, so far no megacity has been affected by an u erly devastating disaster. However, extreme events occur unexpectedly and can unfold a high potential damage in megacities. As a result, resilience has officially become a guiding principle for the development of a number of megacities around the globe (e.g. Resilient Cities, Hyogo Framework etc.). Taking this rhetoric seriously would mean going beyond business as usual. Applying a CAS-perspective can potentially become a guideline for developing tailored resilience building measures: As a basis, up-to-date knowledge on the factors involved in risk complexes of local hazards is needed. Resilience building must not be limited to primary factors and effects of potential disasters but has to consider baseline vulnerabilities of the population at risk (accessibility of safe water, shelter, livelihoods, health status etc.). Building resilient megacities requires new approaches for combining experiential knowledge of the population with scientific-technical knowledge of planners and administrators. is knowledge then has to be translated into crosssectoral tools and applied down to the household level. Consequently the development of participative planning methods, based on a redefined a itude towards informality, are required. International cooperation, especially city-to-city exchange can help to open up fresh perspectives and result in joint development of good practice. Analyzing risk and disaster in megacities with complexity theory and a CAS-perspective might at first glance be daunting. Underlying causes of risk and disaster are deeply rooted and are beyond the control of urban managers, especially in the congested and underfinanced metropolises of the Global South. However, only ruthless analysis allows for identifying the options available for dealing with risk and disaster under the given circumstances. Strategies based on these findings then have to address the main problems with adequate time horizons. Finally, this perspective illustrates not only city governments limited room for maneuver but also the large and o en under-utilized potential of the population at risk. References Abidin, H. Z, Andreas, H., Gumilar, I., Gamal, M., Fukuda, Y. and Deguchi, T. (2009): Land Subsidence and Urban Development in Jakarta (Indonesia). 7th FIG Regional Conference, Spatial Data Serving People: Land Governance and the Environment, Hanoi, Vietnam: October Ahmed, S. U. (2005): Impact of banning polythene bags on floods of Dhaka City by applying CVM and remote sensing, Environmental Health Perspectives, 111 (4): Alexander, D. (2002): Principles of emergency planning and management, New York: Oxford University Press. Badan Pusat Statistik (2013): Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia , Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik. Ba y, M. (2011): Building a science of cities. UCL Working Papers Series No. 70, London: UCL. Bohle, H.-G. (1994): Metropolitan Food Systems in Developing Countries: e Perspective of Urban Metabolism, GeoJournal, 34 (3): Cybriwsky, R. and Ford, L. R. (2001): City profile Jakarta, Cities, 18 (3): Dartmouth Flood Observatory (2008): 2007 Global Register of Major Flood Events, URL = (11 November 2013) De Sherbinin, A., Schiller, A. and Pulsipher, A. (2007): e vulnerability of global cities to climate hazards, Environment & Urbanization, 19 (1): Egner, H., Ra er, B. M. W. and Dikau, R. (eds.) (2008): Umwelt als System System als Umwelt? Systemtheorien auf dem Prüfstand, München: Ökom. Ellenrieder, T. (2006): Überschwemmungen in Mumbai, in: Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellscha (ed.): Topics Geo. Jahresrückblick Naturkatastrophen 2005, München: Münchner Rückversicherungs-Gesellscha. Felgentreff, C. and Glade, T. (eds.) (2008): Naturrisiken und Sozialkatastrophen. Heidelberg: Spektrum. Government of Maharashtra (2006a): Fact Finding Commi ee on Mumbai Floods. Final Report. Volume I, Mumbai: Government of Maharashtra.

117 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Government of Maharashtra (2006b): Fact Finding Commi ee on Mumbai Floods. Final Report. Volume II, Mumbai: Government of Maharashtra. Gupta, K. (2009): Mitigation urban flood disasters in India, in: Feyen, J., Schannon, K. and Neville, M. (eds.), Water and Urban Development Paradigms - Towards an Integration of Engineering, Design and Management Approaches. Leiden: CRC PRESS-Taylor & Francis Group. Hindustan Times ( ): No space for nullah silt. IPCC (2013): Summary for Policymakers, in: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Pla ner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V. and Midgley, P. M. (eds.), Climate Change 2013: e Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fi h Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Irsyam, M., Dangkua, D. T. and Hendryawan, K. (2008): Proposed seismic hazard maps of Sumatra and Java islands and microzonation study of Jakarta city, Indonesia, Journal of Earth System Science, 117 (2): Kauffman, S. A. (1990): e Sciences of Complexity and Origins of Order, Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, (2): Kraas, F. (2012): Das Hochwasser 2011 in Bangkok, Geographische Rundschau, 64 (1): Kraas, F. (2003): Megacities as global risk areas, Petermanns Geographische Mi eilungen, 147 (4): Luhmann, N. (1984): Soziale Systeme: Grundriss einer allgemeinen eorie, Frankfurt a. M.: Suhrkamp. Ooi, G. L. (2008): Cities and sustainability: Southeast Asian and European perspectives, Asia Europe Journal, 6 (2): Parsons, T. (1951): e social system, New York: Glencoe. Portugali, J. (2011): Complexity, Cognition and the City, Heidelberg: Springer. Ra er, B. and Treiling, T. (2008): Komplexität oder was bedeuten die Pfeile zwischen den Kästchen? In: Egner, H., Ra er, B. and Dikau, R. (eds.): Umwelt als System System als Umwelt?, München: Revi, A. (2008): Climate change risk: An adaption and mitigation agenda for Indian cities, Environment & Urbanization, 20 (1): Seiffert, H. (2003): Ein ührung in die Wissenscha stheorie. Band 1 und Band 2, München: Beck. Simon, F. (2006): Ein ührung in die Systemtheorie und Konstruktivismus, Heidelberg: Carl-Auer Verlag. Swiss Re (2013): Mind the Risk a global ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters, Zürich: Swiss Re. Taleb, N. N. (2007): e Black Swan. e impact of the highly improbable, New York: Random House. UNDESA (2014): World Urbanization Prospects. e 2014 Revision. Highlights, New York: United Nations. UNDESA (2012): World Urbanization Prospect: e 2011 Revision. Online Data: Country Profiles, URL = (01 May 2012). UNISDR (2009): UNISDR Terminology on disaster risk reduction, Geneva: UNISDR. Vijay, V., Biradar, B. S., Inamdar, A. B., Deshmukhe, G., Baji, S. and Pikle, M. (2005): Mangrove mapping and change detection around Mumbai (Bombay) using remotely sensed data, Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, 34 (3): WHO (2007): Floods in Jakarta, Banten, and West Java Province, Republic of Indonesia. Emergency Situation Report #6, URL = (03 September 2011) Wirth, E. (1979): eoretische Geographie, Stu gart: Teubner. Wisner, B. (2007): Regions at risk or people at risk?, Geographische Rundschau, 59 (10): Wolman, A. (1965): e Metabolism of Cities, Scientific American, 213: Zaenuddin H. M. (2013): Jakarta Floods from Period of General JP Coen (1621) to Governor Jokowi (2013). Jakarta: Change Publisher. Citation Peters, G., Butsch C., Krachten, F., Kraas, F., Sridharan, N. and Marfai, M. (2015): Analyzing Risk and Disaster in Megaurban Systems - Experiences from Mumbai and Jakarta. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

118 118 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 European Association of Service providers for Persons with Disabilities (EASPD) Disaster Preparedness Survey QUARTA, Giulia a and CANKOVA Stefana b a EASPD, Brussels, Belgium. Giulia. arta@easpd.eu b EASPD, Brussels, Belgium. stefana.cankova@easpd.eu Abstract is article sums up the main findings of EASPD research on the role of service providers for persons with disabilities in disaster preparedness and response. When major hazard occur, people with disability may need additional support. is implies to reorient the way in which civil protection services are planned and delivered. Moreover, it requires a higher involvement of specialised service providers, having the knowledge to provide the support these people are in need of. Keywords Service Providers, Persons with Disabilities, Disaster Preparedness and Response 1. Introduction People with disabilities constitute a very large minority that consists of between one sixth and one fi h of the general population of most countries. When major incidents and disasters occur, people with disabilities face hardships that are potentially greater than that of the majority of the population and they can suffer additional forms of discrimination or neglect. Whereas measures for the general population are usually created for groups, a certain number of persons with disabilities require individual assistance, which may involve a fundamental reorientation in the way that civil protection services are planned and delivered. It is in this context that specialised service providers have a crucial role to play, as they quite o en provide the individual support these people are in need of. Despite the efforts of countries to improve their emergency preparedness, li le has yet been done in order to include the issue of disability into civil protection programmes of action. Preparing for disasters with and on behalf of persons with disabilities requires political commitment, national and local co-ordination, strategic planning, networking, knowledge management, optimisation of resources, as well as good communication strategies EASPD Disaster Preparedness Survey In 2013, the European Association of Service providers for Persons with Disabilities (EASPD) joined the taskforce of the Commi ee of Permanent Correspondents of EUROPA, UNISDR, and the Council of Europe (CoE) on the inclusion of People with Disabilities (PwD) in Disaster Preparedness and Response. During its meeting in October 2013, the taskforce adopted a set of recommendations to the Commi ee of Ministers to inform and be distributed to all Member States of the CoE and decided to organise an international conference on the topic of Disaster Preparedness and Response in 2014/2015. In order to get a be er understanding of the involvement and knowledge of service providers on this topic, EASPD consulted its members and asked them to provide their inputs through an online survey. e questionnaire first examined the experience of service providers across Europe in disaster situations and their capability to act in terms of methodology and protocols, trainings and models of good practice (MOGP). Next, it investigated service providers awareness of national, regional, local and municipal plans for disaster preparedness and response, specifically dedicated to PwD, as well as the service providers involvement in the development and implementation of these plans. Finally, it focused on assessing service providers level of involvement in ensuring the security of PwD in such emergencies and their opinions on their role in this field. A total of 27 organisations from 19 different European countries took part in the survey. ese organisations are ranging from Single agencies, working directly with PwD, to Umbrella structures which represent the views and realities of service providers from across their countries. e research therefore provided a good knowledge-base on the topic from across Europe.

119 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Added Value e main objective of the survey was to clarify to what extent specialised service providers in Europe are involved in the development and the delivery of plans and procedures for disaster preparedness and response. In this sense, the report on the research results introduces the perspective and role of the support service providers for persons with disabilities, which should be taken in consideration in the development of the disaster risk reduction framework. With regard to Priority Action 1 of the Hyogo Framework: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation, the survey results demonstrate that even though there are programmes and procedures addressing the disaster preparedness and response at local and national levels, they rarely, if at all, address the specific needs of persons with disabilities. Figure 1 clearly shows that service providers organisations, having the knowledge and know-how needed to support in a correct way this target group, are usually not involved in the development and implementation of disaster preparedness and response planning. e survey also relate to Priority Action 3 of the Hyogo Framework: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels. e survey outcomes underline that while service providers do have the expertise in caring for their users, usually they are not sufficiently trained on how to support them in case of disaster. Only 42.3% of the organisations that took part in the survey currently provide their staff with a specific training on emergency response preparedness, whilst the majority of 57.7% don t. In the first cases, trainings are provided on topics such as: how to act in case of fire, trauma, accident, and evacuation; on safety of buildings and necessary equipment; on cooperation with local fire departments and technical welfare organisations; on safety of persons and first aid. Table 2: Organisations training of staff on how to act in cases of natural disasters. Source: EASPD Disaster and Risk Response Survey Response Percentage Count Yes 42.3% 11 No 57.7% 15 Total Responses 26 Figure 1: Involvement of organisations in disaster preparedness and response planning Source: EASPD Disaster and Risk Response Survey In addition, when asked about specialised service providers involvement in ensuring the safety of PwD in cases of disasters, the majority of organisations (64%) affirmed not to be involved. ese results indicate the need of rethinking the way the responsible institutions at the local and national level involve experts and service providers in ensuring the safety of persons with disabilities during and a er disasters. Table 1: Involvement of specialised service providers in the planning for the safety of PwD in cases of natural disasters at national level. Source: EASPD Disaster and Risk Response Survey Response Percentage Count Yes 36 % 9 No 64 % 16 Total Responses 25 is result also relates to priority Action 5 of the Hyogo Framework: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. e preparedness of service providers is crucial, as it is also their involvement in the elaboration of measures to prevent disasters from happening. A very important result of the survey is the definite willingness and readiness of service providers to cooperate with all relevant stakeholders, in order to strengthen the disaster preparedness. 88.5% of the interviewed organisations state that service providers should be more involved in ensuring the safety of PwD in cases of disaster emergencies. Only 5% of them deemed that such activities are not directly relevant to their work. Table 3: Views on the need to further involve specialised service providers in the planning of the safety requirements for PwD in cases of disasters. Source: EASPD Disaster and Risk Response Survey Response Percentage Count Yes 88.5% 23 No 11.5% 3 Total Responses 26 With regard to further steps to be taken, EASPD survey results stressed the need for disaster preparedness and response plans to include specific guidelines on how to support PwD. Assistance to this specific target group should be provided through the cooperation with organisations and professionals possessing the knowledge and know-how to address the specific needs of these persons. Another aspect highlighted by the participants is the need to raise social awareness on the topic of disaster pre-

120 120 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 paredness. More information, cooperation, training, and knowledge, specifically focused on supporting PwD has to be accumulated and provided in order to ensure the adequate response in case of disasters for all citizens, without exclusion and discrimination. 3. Conclusions Disaster preparedness and response is an area in which the society can prove to be truly inclusive and fully respectful of the human rights of all its citizens. A disability perspective in this field is of utmost importance. Efficient and effective plans should include the knowledge and know-how available amongst specialized social and health service providers. ey are the actors in the society who are o en not only be er equipped to provide support in a correct way but also, in many cases, they are in a very close and intense relationship with the people. References EASPD Disaster and Risk Response Survey (2014), G. arta, S. Cankova [Online]. Available at: Citation arta, G., and Cankova, S. (2015): European Association of Service providers for Persons with Disabilities (EASPD) Disaster Preparedness Survey. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

121 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e application of open-source so ware ANUGA installed on a BlueJ/Q computer for a tsunami modelling in costal areas of city of Trieste using high resolution laser-scanning and multibeam data STERZAI, Paolo a, COREN, Franco a and CREATI, Nicola a a Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Italy, psterzai@inogs.it Abstract Due to the characteristics of seismo-tectonic is an event of a tsunami in the northern Adriatic considered as unlikely. However many historical sources report that in 1511 a tsunami induced by an earthquake occurred devastating the city. e problems of the city in case of heavy rains about the coastal flooding is well known especially in the case of west - winds. is paper presents a dynamic hydraulic modeling of the city of Trieste in the event of a tsunami during a contemporary storm surge along the coastal areas using the open-source so ware ANUGA installed on a machine BlueJ/Q. e hydraulic modeling used for this purpose calculates the solutions from the fluid motion equation through the Navier-Stokes equations using some mathematical simplifications in the case of wave equations due to shallow water equations, as the fluid incompressibility, uniform vertical velocity distribution, uniform distribution of the hydrostatic pressure and a gentle slope of the seabed. A digital elevation model of the terrain has been used along the coast obtained by laser-scanning fused with a multibeam batimetry for the onshore data, with a final resolution of about 1 point per square meter. e data were corrected for the average height of the seas defined by the geoid ADBVE Due to the large amount of data using a high resolution digital terrain as well as batymetric model, the modelling computations have been done using the super-computer BlueJ/Q, which optimized the parallelization of the code. e hydraulic modeling high resolution required in urban areas which takes account of buildings, road structures, channels etc.. requires a computing capacity which is not possible to deal with PC seen the magnitude of the mesh used and the complexity considered to obtain reliable temporal evolution. Considering occurrence of an event of a tsunami in correspondence to an event of a flood wave 2 meters due to storm surges, then the worst possible case, by entering into a GIS all simulations it was possible to outline the areas of highest risk, indicating the areas that would require surgery in order to prevent problems of civil protection. Keywords risk management; hydraulic modeling, civil protection 1. Introduction A er the event of the tsunami in Southeast Asia of 26/12/2004, the scientific community has begun to consider the event of these phenomena even in areas where previously were considered unlikely. One of these areas is considered the northern Adriatic (Lorito et al. 2008), in which due to the characteristics of the seismo- tectonic zone, it is considered an unlikely event. e main sismogenetic faults in this area are present on the Dinaric Alps and Julian Alps, located in areas far from being considered potential tsunami generators. An earthquake in these areas could cause tsunamis (Tinti et. al. 2004). From the year 1000 A.C. to now, five tsunamis have occurred in the Adriatic (among the 32 registered in Italy), cataloged by the National Seismological Service. e most important one took place in 1511 in the North Adriatic and caused a rise in the sea at Trieste (Tinti et. al. 2004); even though different authors seems to deny such an event (Camassi et. al. 2011). e catastrophic earthquake that broke out between Friuli and Slovenia in the a ernoon of March 26, 1511 shocked all our neighboring regions to the Marche, (CPTI, 2004). is earthquake caused moreover one of the most tragic tsunami ever recorded in the Adriatic, which hit the towns of Venice and Trieste. e victims of the event overall, it is estimated, were approximately and the estimated sea level rise was of the order of one meter. In addition to the tsunami event one more frequent

122 122 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 problem of the town of Trieste is the storm surge; this occurs in case of heavy rains especially in the case of south winds (scirocco), (Marone E., 2013), that can cause a water surge in the Gulf of Trieste of about 2 meters. is work is based on modeling of a hypothetical tsunami similar to that occurred in 1511, generated by an earthquake located in the position of of latitude, of longitude, see (CPTI, 2004), that occurred contemporarily to an event of storm surge, that would be the worst case scenario. In order to optimize the modeling we have chosen to perform the calculations using a highresolution terrain model of the city of Trieste obtained from laser scanning for the terrestrial part, while the seas part has been derived from multibeam. Gulf of Trieste in order to obtain a total bathymetric cover until 2 km from the costal-area, about 50 seismic sections were digitized. e depth were obtained from the first reflection (estimated being the sea-bo om), multiplying the time for reflection with an average speed propagation of the seismic wave in the sea, by applying a correction due to the tide. e chosen grid, which well represents the spatial bathymetric resolution achieved by digitizing seismic sections, was 200 meters. Figure 1 shows the obtained bathymetric data fusion, while figure 2 represents the complete dataset. 2. e Case Study e direct acquisition of a high density and accurate 3D point cloud has made lidar systems the preferred technology for the collection of topographic data in urban environment, (Wehr, 1999; Coren F. et al., 2004). In this study, Optech ALTM 3100 was used for the acquisition of the Li- DAR data, with the flight performed on 30th April e study area was measured from an altitude of 1500 m, with a sampling density of about 4 points per square meter, and the radiometric resolution, scan frequency and scan width were 12bits, 70Hz and ±25, respectively. e dataset has been processed using PosPac so ware for the trajectory computation. e final data were obtained using Optech DashMap so ware while TerraScan (Terrasolid Corporation) was used for data classification in order to produce a good map of the city buildings of the city, (Axelsson P., 1999). e lidar data have been integrated with batymetric coastal data collected with a multibeam system. A multibeam echosounder is a device typically used by hydrographic surveyors to determine the depth of water and the nature of the seabed. We used the Reason 6000 that is operated transmi ing a broad acoustic fan shaped pulse from a specially designed transducer across the full swath acrosstrack with a narrow alongtrack then forming multiple receive beams (beamforming) that is much narrower in the acrosstrack (around 1 degree depending on the system). From this narrow beam a two way travel time of the acoustic pulse is then established utilizing a bo om detection algorithm. If the speed of sound in water is known for the full water column profile, the depth and position of the return signal can be determined. e usefull dataset covers the Trieste city costalarea for the first 500 meters from the shoreline. A good data fusion between aerial laser-scan and multibeam data is usually hard to obtain due to the data gap caused because the laser-scan data cannot penetrate a water surface as well as the multibeam data cannot reach zones along the shoreline. To overcome this problem it was decided to fill the data gap using a kriging interpolator that allowed to obtain a smooth transition area between both data avoiding oscillations usually obtained using other interpolating techniques due to the triangulation. With the aim to extend the bathymetric data of the Figure 1: e laser-scan elevation data fused with multibeam bathymetric map used in hydraulic modelling. With the pink color is identified the low-resolution bathymetry calculated from seismic lines digitalization. White color indicate no-data Figure 2: Hypothetical location of the earthquake occured in 1512, the red point is the location of the historical earthquake, the square red-area is the tsunami investigated area where the computations has been done Using the so ware Anuga is possible to import datasets of different resolutions, giving different weights (or priorities) to the individual areas. In this way was possible to reduce the computation time because the generated mesh is not uniformly spaced along the entire dataset but are dependent on the chosen resolution. e chosen resolutions was 1 meter in the coastal downtown area (where the water can reach) as well as in the first 500 meters from the coast, while in other areas a 200 meter

123 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March mesh was considered as sufficient. is was done using the mesh generator of ANUGA defining the geometry of the problem in an interactive way. An almost common event in the Gulf of Trieste is the so-called high water, which can take place mainly in autumn and more precisely in November. e causes of this phenomenon are almost meteorological: a low atmospheric pressure and persistent south winds on the Adriatic basin can cause a rise in sea level in its northern part up to 70 cm. e same meteorological can generate another phenomenon in the Adriatic called the longitudinal sessa, which is a fluctuation in the level with a period of 21.5 h, and a width that can reach 50 cm in the Trieste area. Both phenomenon can also produce an overall sea level increase of 120 cm, E. Marone (2013). In the case that this events coincides with a high astronomical tide, a high water resulting can reach almost 2 meters. So far the maximum high water level recorded in Trieste was at 11/26/1969 with 193 cm up to the local mareographic zero called IGM.We adopted the value of 2 meters for the simulations. In order to simplify the problem it is necessary to make the following simplifications. e differential equations of a two-dimensional flow are considered according to the methodology proposed by Godunov: considering only those solutions to the first order of accuracy, however, apply only in the case of shallow-water, where the horizontal dimensions are considered as much greater than the column water. Finally the water surface is considered not disturbed in a body of water vertically homogeneous and isotropic. e so ware we used is ANUGA that records the evolution of the water depth and the horizontal time in the interior of each cell in function of time by solving the equations of shallow water starting from a finite element approach, for the mathematical background see Nielsen, O. (2007). e so ware is wri en in the object-oriented language Python, allowing to interface easily the Anuga library functions. In order to increase the code efficiency as well as linking directly with the structures of Python numpy some more complex components are wri en in the C language. e core of ANUGA is the hydrodynamic module, called shallow-water, which is based on the finite volume method using triangular cells meshes to solve the shallow water equations. e finite volume method is a very robust and flexible numerical method technique; however it is certainly not the fastest. If the geometry is simple, a finite difference method can be more efficient. e frictional resistence is applied using the Manning formula, although the so ware was not yet tested in relation to the roughness of the sea-bo om. e Manning s coefficient is set at 0.1 at each point of the mesh, (M. H. Dao and P. Tkalich, 2007). In order to make the problem more simple, Anuga uses a computational approach applying the so-called Dirichlet boundary which is o en used in hydro- dynamics, the no-slip condition for viscous fluids states that at a solid boundary have zero velocity relatively to the boundary. e calculations have be done considering the tide at 2 meters, considering the mean-sea level of the sea referred to the ADBVE 2006 geoid, (Sterzai et al., 2008). Regarding the tsunami wave; the modeling has been performed a modeling considering an option called fixed- wave that consider a wave applied to a chosen boundary. erefore we do not modelled the tsunami source parameters in terms of an hypothetical sesimic event but we used planar wave approximation; this assumption is justified by the fact that the source of the tsunami is located onshore and far away from the basin (almost 100 km; see figure 2). is also imply that we cannot model the arrival time of the tsunami wave cosidering that we didn t effectively modelled the seismi source and therefore the earthqwuacke that generate the tsunami. In addition the modeling does not take into account other external factors that could bring the system out of equilibrium as rains, water production and external stress due to wind and atmospheric pressure gradients Data analysis As can be seen from the Figure 5, the Trieste downtown is affected the most compared to the other harbour area in the bay. e reason is the water depth is almost shallow there and that part is an enclosed area which traps and amplifies the tsunami energy. By using these simulation results and topographical data, inundation maps for Trieste area have been prepared in a GIS environment. From the data of temporal evolution of the tsunami was possible to calculate the maximum flood wave of the tsunami, the absolute moment and the speed of impact. e momentum can be a good variable to point out the tsunami damage risk in a area, H. G. Loomis (2002). It contains in the largest positive wave crest is a measure of its damaging potential and might be used as a measurement of tsunami magnitude. e momentum flux represents the most suitable damage indicator and can be computed from the equation: η p +h p M T (t) = zf T (t)dz, (1) 0 where F(t) is the impact force computed from the integral over the whole depth z and n and h are the local amplitude and undisturbed water depth at the pile. It can be noted that the absolute momentum is a variable not depending from the wave period, see the figure 3. Figure 3: Absolute momentum of Trieste tsunami modelling.

124 124 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Since it is considered to an earthquake place in the north-west, from where the wave front could move to the city of Trieste, it is noted that the areas of higher values of the absolute moment can be found on the coast near the city downtown, area where cruise ships dock, see figure 3. Particularly vulnerable seems to be also the areas behind the dams and the port area. For the protection of the dams is to be specially protected area to the east. erefore, before defining the risk, first hazard and vulnerability of the case should be specified clearly. Mitigation plan for a disaster management includes reconstruction and preparedness stages for the disaster event. Since we know the extent of the hazard in terms of source of the waves caused by earthquake, affected zones can be determined by using GIS. e inundation map formed in GIS environment is used for this purpose. e intersections of the building and road layers and inundation. Map layer have been used to detect the buildings affected by tsunami waves. Besides this, zonal statistics tool has been used to extract the elevation information from DEM. Finally, by considering the inundation possibility and elevation parameter, a risk map has been prepared for Trieste a er the tsunami, see the figure Risk Map for Trieste city e simulation duration is taken as 30 min of real-time computation with the time step of 0.1 sec. e so ware computes the propagation of the tsunami wave at every 0.1 sec and gives the outputs in every 60 sec. In order to be able to compare the maximum positive and maximum negative wave amplitudes near Trieste, artificial computation gauges are placed to specific locations in the study domain. In the simulation all tsunami parameters in the near shore area of Trieste town are computed. Initial wave is selected as a site specific tsunami, and its characteristics represent a tsunami characteristics based on the tsunami generated in the offshore area in the direction from the earthquake direction to Trieste. A er a 30 minutes long simulation, the so ware gives the propagation of the tsunami, run-up in addition to sea states at specified time steps and maximum amplitude during the simulation duration. According to the simulation results, the maximum elevation of the tsunami to Trieste from simulation source is with the wave height of 2.0 m, figure 4. Figure 4: Maximum innundation map of Trieste downtown. e colorscale is in meters. Here is possible to note the inundation map of the city. e water drowns most of the old town and the coastal area that by the way is a very populated area. Figure 5: GIS of the risk map for Trieste city with identification of the building interested by inundation. 3. Conclusion In conclusion, a tsunami hydraulic modelling has been computed the inundation map for a hypothetical event caused by a earthquake that has occurred in 1511 in the area of the town of Trieste superimposed of a surge storm sea level rise of 2 meters. Using a high- resolution terrain model obtained by laser-scanning for the terrestrial and marine multibeam for the coastal data and using a machine with high computing power as is the Blue J / Q was possible to model the possible consequences of a tsunami even of moderate intensity. In addition, through the measurement of the absolute momentum that is associated with the intensity of a tsunami was possible to point out the most dangerous zones: these can be identified. e future developments will be focused trying to extend the study in other areas where high-resolution digital terrain models are available. References Axelsson, P. (1999): Processing of laser scanner data algorithms and applications, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing 54, Bello i, G.and Cecioni C. (2010): Propagation of Tsunamis over Large Areas using COMSOL, Excerpt from the Proceedings of the COMSOL Conference 2010 Paris Camassi, R. ; Caracciolo, C.H., Castelli, V., Slejko d. (2011) e 1511 Eastern Alps earthquakes: a critical update and comparison of existing macroseismic datasets. J Seismol (2011) 15: DOI /s Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani, versione 2004 (CPTI04), INGV, Bologna.

125 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Coren, F. and Sterzai, P., (2006): Radiometric correction in laser scanning. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 27 (15-16), Dao, M.H., Tkalich P. (2007): Tsunami propagation modelling - a sensitivity study, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, Evaluating Tsunami Impact Metrics, Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study Marone, E., et al. (2013): Harmonic tidal analysis methods on time and frequency domains: similarities and differences for the Gulf of Trieste, Italy, and Paranagu Bay, Brazil, Vol. 54, n.2, June 2013 pp Loomis, H.G. (2002): Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 24, No. 5, page 317 (2006) Loomis, H.G. (2002): e Momentum of a Tsunami, Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol.20, No.1 Lorito, S. et al. (2008): Earthquake-generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, B01301, doi: /2007jb Salap, S. et al.: Tsunami Risk Analysis and Disaster Management by Using GIS: A Case Study in Southwest Turkey, Goecek Bay Area Nielsen, O. (2007): ANUGA v1.0 User Manual. Geoscience Australia and the Australian National University, pp Sterzai, P. et al.(2008): An Improved Geoid in North Eastern Italy, Observing our Changing Earth, International Association of Geodesy Symposia, Vol. 133, 2008, pp Tinti S., Maramai A. and Graziani L. (2004). e New Catalogue of Italian Tsunamis. Natural Hazards, Vol.33, n.3, Wehr, A. and Lohr, U. (1999): Airborne laser scanning an introduction and overview, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing 54, Citation Sterzai, P., Coren F. and Creati, N. (2015): e application of open-source so ware ANUGA installed on a BlueJ/Q computer for a tsunami modelling in costal areas of city of Trieste using high resolution laser-scanning and multibeam data. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

126 126 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 VISUS Methodology: A i Assessment for Defining Safety Upgrading Strategies of S ool Facilities. GRIMAZ, Stefano a, MALISAN, Petra a and TORRES, Jair b a University of Udine, Department of Chemistry, Physics and Environment, SPRINT-Lab: Safety and protection Intersectoral laboratory, Udine, Italy, stefano.grimaz@uniud.it b UNESCO, Paris, France, j.torres@unesco.org Abstract Ensuring the safety of people in case of natural hazards is one of the main concerns of public administrators in hazard-prone territories, particularly with reference to strategic and relevant major public buildings, such as schools. is requires the definition of a rational and effective strategy for risk reduction based on the level of risk, criticalities, countermeasures and costs. In order to evaluate these aspects, the SPRINT-Lab researchers of the University of Udine in Italy (1) developed the VISUS method (Visual Inspection for defining the Safety Upgrading Strategies). VISUS was first developed aiming to assess schools in a seismic scenario, but it has evolved into a holistic and multi-hazard approach that considers five issues: site conditions, structural performance, local structural criticalities, non-structural components and functional aspects. Each issue is analysed using a pre-codification of the expert reasoning, spli ing the assessment in two main phases: the characterization and the evaluation. As a result, simple graphical indicators summarize the evaluation pointing out the main weaknesses and the needs of intervention. VISUS could be used as effective decision making tool for planning actions in risk mitigation at a regional scale following a rational approach. VISUS is adaptable to different local contexts and needs. e method provides different sub-products, such as the transfer of scientific knowledge through the capacity building of local engineers and decision makers; a mobile application for collecting related data; the production of school s individual and collective reports; and geo-referenced national inventories of schools in mapping platforms such as OpenStreetMap or GeoNode. e method was elaborated and applied in the ASSESS project aimed at assessing more than 1000 schools in the Friuli Region (N-E of Italy) and recently it has been adopted in a prototypal project of UNESCO in 100 selected schools of three geographical departments of El Salvador (La Paz, La Libertad and San Salvador). UNESCO is planning to start new pilot projects in different countries worldwide. Keywords Multi-hazards safety, school safety, VISUS method, holistic approach, risk mitigation, intervention planning 1. Introduction Disasters have a major impact on children, youth and education systems. Studies of disaster trends and the likely consequences of climate change suggest that each year 175 million children are likely to be affected by natural hazard related disasters alone. During the 2010 Haiti earthquake, some students and 1300 teachers and education personnel died. e Ministry of Education offices were destroyed along with 4000 schools close to 80% of educational establishments in the Port-au-Prince area. During the 2008 Sichuan earthquake in China, approximately students were crushed in their classrooms and more than 7000 school rooms collapsed (Bastidas and Petal, 2012). During the second session of the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction held in June 2009, participating countries expressed their commitment to national assessments of the safety of existing education and health facilities should be undertaken by 2011 (UNISDR, 2009). During the third session in 2011 the commitment was reiterated: By 2015, concrete action plans for safer schools and hospitals should be developed and implemented in all disaster prone countries. (UNISDR, 2011). In order to support different countries in the development and implementation of concrete action plans

127 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: Comprehensive School Safety Framework (from GAD3RES, 2012). for safer schools, UNESCO together with other major UN agencies and International Non-Governmental organizations commi ed to disaster risk reduction, joined the Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience in the Education Sector (GAD3RES). e Alliance promotes, the Comprehensive School Safety Framework (CSS) (GAD3RES, 2012), a comprehensive approach to DRR education based on three overlapping areas of focus (pillars): 1. Safe School Facilities; 2. School Disaster Management; and 3. Risk Reduction Education. e goals of this Comprehensive School Safety (CSS) framework are: a. To protect children and education workers from death and injury in schools; b. To plan for educational continuity in the face of expected hazards; c. To strengthen a disaster resilient citizenry through education; and d. To safeguard education sector investment. In order to facilitate the strengthening of the different elements related to Pillar 1 (Safe Learning Facilities), administrators and policy-makers are o en confronted to answer questions such as: 1. What are the schools that need priority interventions? 2. What are the reasons to intervene in those schools? 3. What types of interventions are needed? 4. How much would be the cost of each intervention? 5. How many interventions are possible with the resources available? 6. How to communicate the level of risk to the educational community? Taking into consideration the important number of schools that administrators are responsible, there is an imperative need for a quick but reliable assessment methodology, which allows them, in one hand, to characterize the initial situation, and in the other hand, support them with concrete information for the decision-making process. Moreover, in the cases of limited resources (human and economic), and when a priority of intervention is necessary, a multilevel approach is also useful for facilitating the decision process to upgrade the safety level.

128 128 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 2: VISUS assessment can be considered as a technical triage of school facilities for planning purposes. Researchers of the SPRINT Laboratory of the University of Udine (I) developed a specific methodology, named VISUS (Visual Inspection for defining Safety Upgrading Strategies) that is specifically conceived to answer the above highlighted questions and challenges. In particular, the methodology is based on a technical triage approach, which allows through visual inspections or visits at every single school to obtain information that can be directly used to define comprehensive safety upgrading strategies for school facilities. Due to the specificities of the VISUS methodology, the methodology has been recently adopted by UNESCO and has been positively tested in a prototypal project in El Salvador. Background information on the concept, main principles and first applications of the VISUS methodology are presented below. 2. VISUS Methodology e VISUS methodology has been developed by researchers of the SPRINT Laboratory, University of Udine, Italy (1), in order to develop a quick assessment of the safety conditions of school facilities. e aim of assessment is to provide the decision-makers with substantial information to define the safety-upgrading strategies for schools. e SPRINT laboratory has a long experience in developing assessment methods based on expert reasoning process (in particular, using the elementary-scenarios reasoning ESR technique) to different contexts. One of the firsts applications developed by SPRINT is Gri.S.U. (Grimaz and Pini, 1999), a method for the assessment of fire risk and equivalent safety in none-conventional buildings (heritage buildings). e method was first applied on historical buildings in the centre of Venice a er a fire destroyed La Fenice theatre in VISUS method is a further application of the ESR technique on the evaluation of the seismic safety of schools. In particular, VISUS is based on the pre-codification of the expert reasoning process, who has to judge the level of safety, within an approach of technical triage, aiming to plan effective measures of risk mitigation and control. In practice, the VI- SUS methodology permits to emulate the judging skills of experts and their decision-making ability through a rapid visual inspection and collection of data. Technical triage assessments and expert judgment pre-codification processes are the two main elements on which VISUS methodology is based. Hence, some specifications on these two aspects are illustrated below VISUS as technical triage assessment In order to answer administrators concerns, mainly but not restricted to Pillar 1 of the CSS framework, it would be necessary to adopt a methodology that provides as outcomes a characterization of the safety weaknesses, the required intervention-needs, and the corresponding cost estimation aimed at increasing safety. Furthermore, administrators need a decision support tool to define intervention strategies on the basis of multiple criteria. Different levels of assessment could be identified aiming to answer the above mentioned requirements (figure 2). Low assessment levels (starting point or data-mining levels, figure 2) are usually implemented through a collec-

129 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tion of data (desk analysis, questionnaires, forms, checklists, etc.). ese approaches allow to quickly rank buildings through indexes; nevertheless, such approaches cannot be detailed enough to properly answer all of the administrator s concerns, inasmuch usually coarse the quality of input data, which could be o en mistrusted. On the other hand, deeper analyses (detailed investigation and design level, figure 2) can surely answer the majority of administrator s concerns, with in-depth/specific assessments, detailed design and cost quantification. However, these inspections are costly and timely consuming, limiting the number of facilities that could be inspected. Based on these two different levels of assessment: desktop assessment and detailed assessment, SPRINT researches suggest adopting an intermediate level of assessment, founded on visual expert-based inspections and technical triage assessments: i.e. VISUS method. e outputs of the VISUS technical triage are directly usable by administrators as decision-making support for defining safety upgrading strategies; furthermore, the outcomes permit to characterize safety-weaknesses, intervention needs and costs with a certain degree of detail in a more rapid and economical approach. Finally, it is worth noting that VI- SUS method has been developed in order to characterize a large number of schools (or other targets ) providing uniform and comparable evaluations, thus facilitating the planning of intervention strategies. e VISUS methodology aims, by reducing as much as possible the time and cost of assessments, to identify the necessary measures to take in order to upgrade the safety of individual schools, taking into consideration the limited available resources. Indeed, the scarcity of resources against the needs implies the adoption of triage approaches (Iserson and Moskop, 2007a), which indicates the necessity to quantify and prioritize requests. e methodology should follow pre-defined goals and values. In particular, VISUS assumes the health and care values (1. human lives; 2. human health; 3. efficient use of resources; 4. fairness [Iserson and Moskop, 2007b]) with the specified priorities, for achieving safety of learners and education workers in schools. Anyway, it is possible to add simply other values, such as the operational continuity (e.g. educational continuity) or the protection of the educational sector investments. Assessing the safety of school facilities is a complex problem; hence a quick and effective assessment is not an easy task. erefore, VISUS triage assessment has been based on the 20/80 rule (also known as Pareto principle) which states that 20 percent of the known variables will account for 80 percent of the results (Basile, 1996: 53). For this reason, particular efforts have been spent in order to identify, through a joint work with experts, the most relevant variables and discard the non-essential data in order to assess a final judgment on safety VISUS as pre-codified expert-based assessment VISUS methodology is based on the pre-codification of the expert reasoning and the application of the ESR technique: is permit to analyse a more accurate representation of the current situation and further express it through a set of pre-defined elementary scenarios useful before formulating stating judgments on school safety. In order to explicate the phases of these cognitive operations, it is necessary to further analyse the expert reasoning process. When an expert is called to develop a rapid inspection (usually visual), to assess and define a safety judgment, to elaborate a brief report of the criticalities found during the process, and to suggest needed possible interventions to improve the safety of the evaluated school, it is possible to identify the different steps that the expert reasoning undertakes and can be interpreted on the basis of three main questions: What to look for/collect as substantial information? How to evaluate what it has been seen/collected? How to express the final judgements? In practice, in the expert reasoning process, it is possible to recognise two main phases (characterisation and evaluation). In fact, the decision-making ability of an expert moves from the capability of reading/interpreting the reality (characterisation phase), to the interpretation and evaluation of the acquired data in order to achieve a judgment on pre-defined safety issues (evaluation phase) (figure 3). Figure 3: Phases of reasoning process of an expert for judgment formulation and reporting through a visual inspection. e characterization phase deals with the identification of substantial information and the collection within specific groups/sections (for example, VISUS methodology considers information on site, structure, nonstructural elements or on the organization of emergency systems and egress paths). e evaluation process allows the expert to elaborate all the collected information through known rules and criteria, and to formulate final judgments on specific main issues. It is worth to note that, usually, experts directly define the judgment independently, in which the characterization and evaluation phases at each single step towards the judgement are hidden between other experts. It is also important to highlight that an expert is able to formulate a judgment, even when the necessary substantial elements that allow him

130 130 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 to formulate that judgement, are correctly provided by another source. e expert uses his/her experience as knowledge for identifying specific predispositions that could produce critical behavioural effects in case of a particular event. By considering the characteristics of the analysed reality, the expert is able to evaluate the likelihood of activation of the associated critical effects and their magnitude, in terms of consequences for the people potentially involved (figure 4). Figure 4: e expert use its experience as a knowledge for formulate the evaluation. e expert is able to recognize specific behavioural scenarios (predisposition) associated to a potential critical behaviour and to the likelihood of critical effect activation. to make the expert s reasoning explicit, both in terms of elements that have to be collected and criteria of evaluation, facilitating the training of surveyors and the knowledge transfer from expert to non-expert. e characterization phase is done by a VISUS surveyor that is trained for identifying substantial elements, in a process of comparing the reality (what the surveyor visually identify in the visit) with the pre-codified graphical scenarios of reference. e identified scenarios containing the substantial elements constitute the input for the evaluation process that will be effectuated through the implementation of pre-codified criteria and rules. Automatically, the evaluation process generates judgments on the main issues considered for safety. Furthermore, the evaluation process permits to obtain uniformity and standardization in the final report through the adoption of specific predefined indicators. is facilitates comparative evaluations, and introduces a sort of standard language. ese characteristics make VISUS an intrinsic tool for knowledge transfer and capacity building. Regarding the main issues on which the judgments are formulate, an important question to keep in mind is: What does safety of school facility mean?. e question could appear trivial, but it permits to approach the problem from the correct point of view. In fact, by paying a ention to human safety, it is important to consider every situation that could cause specific difficulties, injuries or deaths, as a consequence of an adverse event. is way of viewing safety indicates that a holistic approach is not only opportune but also necessary (Grimaz, et al. 2010). e core idea of the VISUS methodology is supported on the understanding that, being the reasoning process of the expert s knowledge pre-codified, and taking into consideration the substantial elements (data) collected by a trained surveyor, the formulation of judgments on each of the evaluated issues could be automatically provided. Figure 6: Main issues considered in the safety assessment of school facilities Figure 5: VISUS pre-codifies the expert reasoning process and uses graphical indicators for describing the results. For this reason, VISUS methodology is based on the main phases of characterization and evaluation, and keeps them clearly divided. e use of ESR technique permits e holistic view produces immediate substantial consequences on practice. In fact, considering the safety of school facilities, it appears evident that a holistic approach allows to take into account not only the building structural performance, but also all the elements that can cause deaths or injuries or specific difficulties. In order to check all the potential criticalities of a school facility, VISUS methodology identifies five main issues: site, structural global, structural local, nonstructural and functional (figure 6). Site evaluations refer to the environment and context in which the school facil-

131 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ities are located; it is essential to identify if there are natural or man-made threats, or conditions that could increase the perverse effect of a hazard. For example, site unstable conditions (such as inundate areas, cavities in the ground, faults in the near field, potential liquefaction, impending rock falls or landslides) imply the need to evaluate the opportunity of retrofi ing the building or relocate it to another, stable and safer, site. Structural global evaluations refer to the global response of the structure to a hazard. In the case of seismic hazard, the global response is evaluated for each structural unit. e seismic design of the structure is essential for the evaluation of the seismic response: If the construction of a structural unit complies specific seismic designs, it follows that the minimum level of seismic response is the one defined by the adopted seismic code. Otherwise, if no seismic rule has been adopted, it is necessary to assume typology-based structural evaluations (for example, fragility curves) for the global seismic behaviour. Structural local evaluation refers to portions of structures, and their potential collapse. e structural local potential scenarios are defined a priori and the surveyor has to identify if the structure shows some predisposition to exhibit each scenario. Furthermore, it is necessary to identify if the hazard (i.e. seismic ground motion) can activate the predisposed effects, and finally assess the potential consequences on people (irrelevant consequences, difficulties, heavy consequences). An example from VI- SUS handbook (Grimaz and Malisan, 2013) is illustrated in figure 4. Non-structural evaluations refer to non-structural elements and their potential effects on people. In particular, in the case of seismic hazard the evaluations synthesize the potential problems connected with the presence of non-structural elements that can fall or overturn causing injuries or deaths (e.g., false ceilings, bookcases, chimneys, etc.). ese non-structural elements could be located inside the building, such as libraries, AC, fans, etc., or outside the buildings, such as ornaments or decorative components. Functional evaluations refer to access and egress paths and emergency systems (safety areas for evacuation, early warning, etc.) in case of a specific hazard (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.). Particular a ention is paid to the egress of people with disabilities and their possibility to reach a safe area, as well as to the difficulties of emergencies services to access to the school in case of an emergency. e functionality issue could also refer, for ordinary conditions, to the operational aspects of the schools, e.g. water and sanitation, among others. As result of the evaluation process, the expert expresses its judgment on each main issue. Here it is present the delicate problem of using of an appropriate language for communicating the scientific/articulated results of the evaluation to the end users (mainly public administrators). VISUS methodology expresses the judgment on each safety issue in terms of a warning level: Level 0 indicates the absence of concern for people safety; Level 1 indicates the recognition of potential difficult situations for people safety; and Level 2 indicates the recognition of potential situations implying heavy consequences for people safety. Following the expert reasoning process, the judgment has to provide also a definition on potential interventions useful for upgrading the safety (description and extension of the interventions, and related cost range). In order to allow a synthetic visualization of the outcomes, VISUS provides a set of graphical indicators (figure 7): Warning levels (figure 7.a): the indicators express the level of warning in term of potential negative consequences on people safety. e indicator revokes the acoustic level of a siren alarm; Performance classes (figure 7.b): If quantitative detailed data are available, the warning level can be better described through the adoption of a performance class indicator. is indicator revokes the energy-label classification; Rose of intervention needs (figure 7.c): the rose of intervention needs synthetizes the judgments on the five safety issues (level 0, 1, 2 for each issue), by associating a warning needle to each judgment. A rose without warning needles implies that no intervention is required; and Safety stars (figure 7.d): all the evaluations are synthetized in the assignment of the safety stars. e total number of safety stars assigned to a school expresses a summary of all the judgments; the assignment of stars is done evaluating if a specific criterion is satisfied. e criteria for assigning each star are: No star assigned: Unsuitable site (presence of level 2 of concern for site); 1st star assigned: e site is suitable (there is no level 2 of concern for site); 2nd star assigned: Stability of the building (there is no level 2 of concern for structural global evaluation of structures): is means that the global collapse of a building is very unlikely in case the school is subject to the design seismic action; 3rd star assigned: life safeguard (absence of level 2 of concern in any safety issue): there are no criticalities that could imply heavy consequences on people safety (this implies no collapses and similar); 4th star assigned: Rapid resume of operations (absence of level 1 of concern for structural global and local): in case of event, there are only criticalities that could imply difficult situations for people safety; this implies no diffuse damage; and 5th star assigned: Immediately operational (absence of level 1 of concern for all issues): a er the event it is possible to immediately re-use the school without interventions.

132 132 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 on the emergency plan. In VISUS methodology, it has been associated to the building. Figure 7: VISUS graphical indicators: indicators for the warning levels (a) or performance class (b), rose of intervention needs (c), and safety stars (d) VISUS reporting e VISUS methodology can be applied to any target (in particular, buildings), or a set of targets, potentially subject to specific hazards/threats. e definition of what is the target depends on the hazard considered during the application of the procedure (seismic, flood, wind, hurricane, typhoon, etc.) and on the inspected safety issue. e target can be identified considering that it has its own specific response to the hazard. In the seismic case, VISUS is applied on school complexes that are defined as a system of one or more school buildings located at the same site and belonging to the same school administration. Furthermore, within each school complex there is one or more school buildings and each building can be separated in many structural units, so that each structural unit has its own response to a specific hazard (figure 8). At the end of the procedure of data characterization and evaluation, a report is automatically produced, synthetizing all of the useful data related to the school complex. e report has a standardized structure (figure 9): e first page shows a synthesis of the school complex data, together with the aggregate judgments that are the accumulative indicators of all individual judgments of all buildings (and the respective structural units). In this page a representative photo of the school complex together with the identification data and geolocation are documented. e geolocation of the school also permits to identify the potential hazards to which the school is potentially prone. e hazard level and the site characteristics are also indicated. Furthermore, specific parameters that permit to evaluate the potential cost increase of interventions caused by an unfavourable or complex construction site location are reported. A sketch of the school complex, permit to identify the school buildings and structural units composition. In addition, data on the number of people a ending the school complex by periods of time are indicated. In the following pages, the relevant data for each building are documented, through a photo of the building, information on exposed values, geometry, characteristics of each structural unit, together with structural global and local, non-structural and functional evaluations, with the assigned warning level. Finally, photo reportage for each building and each unit is documented. Whenever it is possible, a photo of the identified problem is shown with the description of the weakness and of the intervention needs. Figure 8: Distinction among school complex, school building and structural unit. e different safety issues refer to different parts of school complex, and in particular: Site evaluations: Refer to the whole school complex; Structural global evaluations: Refer to each structural unit: the design of structures considers each structural unit as a standing structure, so the evaluation has to be performed on each structural unit; Structural local evaluations: Refer to each structural unit; Non-structural evaluations: Refers to each structural unit; and Functional evaluations: Refer to each building and to the school complex; functional evaluation mainly refer to the egress system that characterizes a building (egress paths could involve more structural units); the safe areas evaluations could refer to each class or building or to the whole school complex depending Figure 9: Example of final report of VISUS assessment. e report is automatically produced using as input the data collected by trained VISUS surveyors. 3. Applications of VISUS Methodology VISUS methodology was firstly applied on more than 1000 schools in Friuli Venezia Giulia region (Italy), in the frame of the ASSESS project (Slejko et al., 2012 and Grimaz et al., 2011) and considering only the seismic hazard. VISUS was applied with different degrees of detail, with the coarsest level being a desk analysis of available documentation that permi ed to identify the buildings requiring a visual survey and a further zoom to buildings that needed de-

133 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tailed engineering, geophysical and geotechnical data acquisition and quantitative analyses. e data of each level permi ed to identify how and where to move in the next level, and also to adjust and calibrate the evaluations of the previous level. e evaluations where finally summarized in a list, and an atlas (both on paper and implemented in a GIS) (figure 10). e outcomes of the project constitute the information for decision makers in order to plan the strategies and the actions for risk mitigation in the whole regional territory. 4. Implementation VISUS methodology is implemented following a procedure that can be summarized in figure 11. Figure 10: Results of safety assessment of schools, made in the ASSESS project (from Grimaz et al., 2011). a) schools geo-referenced on a GIS (red dots); b) reports of each school; c) summary list of results (extract). In February 2014, VISUS methodology has been applied in the survey of 100 selected schools of three departments of El Salvador (La Paz, La Libertad and San Salvador); the purpose of the trial was both assessing the safety of schools and testing the possibility of using VISUS as a methodology for knowledge transfer, capacity building and training of VISUS trainees and surveyors. With the purpose of simplifying the characterization process and the collection of data, a mobile application was developed. A group of 15 civil engineering university students was trained on the general concept of the VISUS methodology, as well on the utilization of the mobile application for collecting the data (characterization), and in the strategy for implementing the consequent survey in every single school. e training consisted in 40 hours of lessons, with the support of images and examples. e trained students were able to inspect the 100 schools of the selected area (for a total amount of almost 300 buildings and about 450 structural units) in 10 days, collecting both data and photos. Later, acquired data was automatically processed (evaluation process) in order to reach final judgments and define final indicators for each school, together with a report for each school complex. Results were reported on maps, exploiting the potentialities of the most used mapping platforms (Google maps, OpenSteetMaps, GeoNode). e El Salvador pilot had very positive feedback from students involved in the assessment, and proved to be a good methodology for transferring knowledge and building capacities. Furthermore, the experience permi ed to draw useful suggestions for improving the mobile application, in order to simplify and make more effective the data collection during the surveys. Figure 11: VISUS methodology as support for Governments that would implement assessment and intervention planning within the Comprehensive School Safety framework is procedure were firstly applied in El Salvador in the geographical departments of San Salvador, La Paz, and La Libertad and permi ed to identify in the implementation process eight main steps that are: a. Identification of Local Partners. e first step in order to adapt the VISUS methodology to the local realities of the country where the assessment is foreseen is to identify the different actors related to school safety issues in the country. e potential partners will have different roles based on their own mandate, and provide information and data required for the adaptation of the methodology to the local context, such as hazard maps. For the case of El Salvador, the main identified partners were: 1) Ministry of Education, and the different divisions concerned with educational infrastructure and disaster risk reduction, 2) Ministry of Environment and the SNET ( Servicio Nacional de Estudios Territoriales ); and, 3) the faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture of the University of El Salvador. b. Conformation of a Scientific Commi ee and Adaptation of the VISUS Methodology for the Specific Context. A Scientific Commi ee is constituted by the identified local partners, the SPRINT-Lab of the University of Udine Italy, and UNESCO. e Commi ee had as a mandate to analyse the different aspects and elements of the VISUS methodology in order to adapt and contextualize them to the local reality of the country (e.g. different typology of buildings, typical materials, geomorphology of the country, hazard identification maps and data collection-, construction cost, etc.). e scientific Commi ee defines also the pre-codified criteria for the evaluation process, taking into account the peculiarities of the country.

134 134 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 c. Preparation of Tools. Based on the adaptation process developed by the Scientific Commi ee, a specific country handbook for training of trainers, and, a handbook for training surveyors, involving the general concepts of the methodology, the characterizations, and the different elements to be assessed, is produced. Also, a mobile application for data collection, and the elaboration of logic and mathematical algorithms, completely adapted for the country context are developed in order to facilitate the data processing and the automatized reports. d. Training of Trainers (ToT). A training of trainers on the use of the methodology is required in order to insure sustainability of the knowledge transferred. For the pilot in El Salvador, a three days training of trainers involved about sixty (60) people, including university professors, engineering associations and technical staff from the Ministries of Education and Environment. e. Training of Surveyors. Surveyors are in charge of visiting the schools and collect the specific data, which is based on the adapted characterization of VISUS for the country. Surveyors normally have a minimum understanding of engineering/architectural basic concepts, and understand the VISUS methodology as a method for identifying the safety issues of every particular school. In the case of the pilot developed in El Salvador, and in close cooperation with the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture of the University of El Salvador, it was decided that the students from the last year of academic formation of the faculty will participate in the training, and will act as a surveyors in close coordination with the Dean of the faculty. Fifteen (15) students were trained in the different aspects of the VISUS methodology and in the data collection. eir participation on the assessment was validated by the University as a part of the requirements for obtaining their graduation diploma, be er known as a social service. f. Planning and Development of the Assessment on the Field. During the planning phase it is important to identify the schools that will be assessed; in particular, it is necessary to define how many schools will be visited, and identify them by specific criteria, related to the aim of the assessment. For example, the a ention could be addressed to schools of different educational level, construction period or material, or schools in a specific area of the country. e data collection is facilitated by the mobile application that has been developed and adapted for the specific local context. rough it, the collected data could be easily transferred to the UNESCO and SPRINT servers. For the case of El Salvador, hundred (100) schools were assessed in a period of ten days in three geographical departments of El Salvador (San Salvador, La Paz and La Libertad, figure 12). ese departments were chosen due to the different particularities that each of them were offering for the pilot (e.g. urban and rural area, costal and mountain area, etc). Five groups integrated by three (3) surveyors were visiting one school in the morning and another one in the a ernoon. e data collection was done using the VISUS mobile application off-line. A er the school visits were completed, the surveyors sent the collected information via internet to the servers of UNESCO and the SPRINT-Lab. Figure 12: Geographical area of the selected schools assessed during the implementation of the UNESCO-VISUS pilot project in El Salvador g. Production of Individual Reports. Based on the information collected by the surveyors, the SPRINT-Lab in close coordination with the local commi ee and UNESCO, double-check the congruence of the collected data. A er this process was finalized, automatic reporting was produced and implemented in GIS databases. e reports (3 to 6 pages) resume in a coherent way the different elements found and analysed during the assessment, mainly related to weakness found in the five areas of analysis (site, global and local structure, non-structural elements and functionality). It finalizes with a series of recommendations/interventions that will allow upgrading the level of safety of the school. e report includes photographic evidence and three indicators that summarize the state of the school vis-a-vis the potential hazards. For El Salvador pilot study, local commi ee was leaded by University of El Salvador that coordinated the survey campaign. As result, hundred (100) reports are online and accessible to the educational community and general public in OpenStreetMap. h. Production of a Collective Report. e collective report is mainly addresses to the national and local authorities. It provides decision makers and the educational community with practical information that allow making evidence based decisions on the related investment needs and areas of concern where this investment should be prioritized. e collective report includes the individual reports, a general report of the assessed schools and an estimation of the cost of every proposed recommendation/intervention, stating also the area of focus of that intervention and the schools that should be prioritized. ese outcomes provide

135 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March administrators with information and key-elements for defining an effective safety upgrading strategies. For El Salvador, the beneficiaries of the results of the project and main decision-makers for defining safety upgrading strategies are the Ministry of Education and Ministry of Environment. 5. Conclusion VISUS (Visual Inspection for the definition of Safety Upgrading Strategies) is a methodology developed for the assessment of school facilities safety, which has been accommodated to fulfil the assessment requirements of the CSS framework, mainly but not restricted to pillar one. VISUS is based on a triage approach and exploiting expert judgment capacity in order to define strategies for knowledge transfer and capacity building, and for providing critical information to administrators and decisionmakers of the education sector. VISUS methodology has been applied in two countries (Italy and in El Salvador) and these experiences permi ed to draw the following key points. a. Adoption of Technical Triage and Expert Reasoning. VISUS adopts a triage approach, that investigates as in-depth as enough in order to allow governments to characterize the situation in a fast but pragmatic way, without huge amounts of economic and human resources. e pre-codification of the expert s reasoning facilitates the transfer of knowledge and the capacity building and ensures the uniformity of the judgments. b. Importance of the Role of VISUS Surveyors. e trials of VISUS methodology highlighted the importance of surveyor s ability to identify the relevant data during the characterization phase. e accuracy of the characterization process is essential, inasmuch as it can affect all the successive phases and the final judgments. For this reason, it is important that even the non-expert surveyor can acquire specific skills, both during the training lessons and through the application of the methodology. Anyway, the ability of recognizing specific technical scenarios is a skill that can be easily taught to high-level scholars with technical background. c. Function of VISUS as a Knowledge Transfer Mechanism and Capacity Building. e training of surveyors on the general concepts of the VISUS methodology, together with the development and utilization of the different related tools, such as the handbooks and the mobile application, contribute to increase the knowledge and the awareness of VISUS surveyors on safety issues. e elicitation and pre-codification of expert reasoning processes with the ESR technique allow the knowledge transfer to non-expert. Good responses from students involved in the trials support this statement. d. Adaptability of VISUS to Specific Context rough Involvement of Local Commi ee. VISUS is based on the pre-codification of expert reasoning process, and the data acquired during the survey are evaluated though these pre-codified criteria and rules, in order to judge each safety issue. Consequently, the procedure requires a local commi ee (local experts and stakeholders) in order to contextualise the methodology to the local peculiarities; local experts also permit to characterize the recurrent local problems/criticalities and the associated intervention needs together with costs. e. Effectiveness of Graphical Indicators for the Communication of Results. e products of VISUS are the synthesis graphical triage indicators and the reports for each school. ese data can be included in GIS, permi ing different representations on maps and queries on data. Indicators and mapping representations become a decision making support to governments for reaching their school safety commitments and define effective safety upgrading strategies. Furthermore, the learned experience learned demonstrated that the graphical indicators can be used as a communicative tool for transferring scientific results and for increasing the awareness on the safety problems. f. Applicability for Overall Multi-Hazard Assessments. e trials of VISUS aimed at assessing safety of schools in relation to seismic hazard; are going to be extended to other hazards/threats (such as floods, wind, hurricane, fire, etc.). In fact, previous experience in the use of VISUS highlighted that a holistic and multi-hazard approach is essential in order to reach comprehensive safety in schools. e multi-hazard approach requires expert contribution for the definition of the characterization and evaluation phases together with an oversight of the whole process in order to ensure a uniformity of the approaches among all the hazards. e two trials permi ed to improve the methodology, thus proving that VISUS methodology is adaptable and customizable to specific needs and competences of the specific country in which it will be applied. Furthermore, the experience highlighted that VISUS indicators were an effective tool for communicative aims, facilitating the rapid comprehension of assessments outcomes by decision makes. El Salvador pilot had good responses from the students involved in the trial proving to be an excellent mechanism of knowledge transfer and a good capacity building tool. National and local authorities of El Salvador have all welcomed the results and are studying the feasibility of extending the application of the VISUS methodology throughout the whole national geography. A nowledgements e development and adaptation of the VISUS methodology for the specific case of El Salvador would haven t been possible without the support of the Permanent Delegation of El Salvador to UNESCO, the Ministry of Education of El Salvador, and the Ministry of Environment of El Salvador and the SNET. A special recognition to the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of the University of El Salvador, specially to Prof. Edgar Peña, without their support and knowledge of the local particularities the development of the pilot project would have been very com-

136 136 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 promised. e authors would like also to thank the institute s members of the UNESCO-IPRED platform for providing peer-reviewed comments, critics and suggestions on the methodology itself and in its application. e authors would like also to thanks the members of the Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience in the Education Sector. Within UNESCO special thanks to the Section of ICT in Education, Science and Culture of UN- ESCO, and for the financial support provided within the framework of the Points of Interest (POI) project. Special acknowledge to Mr David Stortie. To finalize, the authors would like to thank the members of the Cross-cu ing ematic Unit on Disaster Risk Reduction of UNESCO for believing in this methodology, and for supporting its development and application, financially and with their expertise. Special recognition to Dr. Alexandros Makarigakis, chief of the Unit. References Basile, F. (1996): Great management ideas can work for you. In: Indianapolis Business Journal, 16: Bastidas P., Petal M., (2012): Assessing School Safety from Disasters. A Global Baseline Report. ISDR ematic Platform for Knowledge and Education, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), 103 pages. GAD3RES, (2012): Comprehensive school safety framework. A global framework in support of e Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience in the Education Sector and e Worldwide Initiative for Safe Schools, in preparation for the 3rd U.N. World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), 6 pages. Grimaz S., Barazza F., Malisan P., More i A. (2011): Riconoscimento delle evidenze di criticità comportamentale degli edifici in caso di terremoto a raverso ispezioni visive. Il metodo VISUS. In: Proceedings of the XIV Convegno ANIDIS L Ingegneria sismica in Italia. Paper n. 918, ISBN , CD rom (in Italian only). Grimaz S. and Pini A. (1999): Valutazione del rischio incendio e della sicurezza equivalente. Fire risk assessment and equivalent safety. EPC Libri (in Italian only). Grimaz S. and Malisan P. (2013): VISUS-method handbook. Internal report for UNESCO s Project Providing decisionmaking information and tools for enhancing school safety in El Salvador through school facilities assessment and Open- StreetMap sourcing contract n Iserson K.V. and Moskop J.C., (2007): Triage in medicine, part I: Concept, history, and types. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 49(3): Iserson K.V. and Moskop J.C., (2007): Triage in medicine, part II: Underlying values and principles. Annals of Emergency Medicine. 49(3): Slejko D., Grimaz S., Cucchi F. and the ASSES Working Group, (2012): Seismic risk of schools at a regional scale: the AS- SESS project. In: SISMOS 2012, por una gestión stratégica de riesgos de desasters, Ediciones UO, Santiago de Cuba, ISBN , CD-Rom, paper C1.Slejko.It.pdf. UNISDR, (2009): Second Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Proceedings: creating linkages for a safer tomorrow. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), 44 pages. UNISDR, (2011): ird Session of the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction. Invest Today for a Safer Tomorrow Increase Investment in Local Action. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). Global platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, 3rd session, Geneva, Switzerland, 8-13 May, Citation Grimaz, S., Malisan, P. and Torres, J. (2015): VISUS Methodology: A ick Assessment for Defining Safety Upgrading Strategies of School Facilities. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

137 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Biofuels and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa CHINWEZE, Chizoba a, a Chemtek Associates, Nigeria, ud2001ng@yahoo.com Abstract e global demand for biofuels, especially the European Union and United States bioenergy mandate has prompted industrial plantations and agribusiness in sub-saharan Africa (SSA); which jeopardize the immediate and long-term food security in the region. e international land acquisition for biofuel crops in SSA accounted for a share of about 60% both in terms of total number of deals and in covered area (Giovanne i and Ticci, 2012), yet the agricultural land in Africa covers less than 15% of the land area. It is worthy to note that land deals refer to transactions that entail transfer of rights to use, control or own land through sale, lease or concession (Anseeuw et al, 2012b). From the foregoing it is evident that the area used for biofuels production is enlarging and competes unfavourably with food production for local consumption. It should be noted that in Africa access to and/or rights over land are predominantly based on tradition, customs or culture and are not necessarily backed by domestic legislation. O en they lack legally enforceable status and/or the land is state owned, with rights to access for the indigenous people never properly defined (Graham A et al 2010). is thereerefore translates to a great majority in sub-saharan Africa losing access to land and related resources they depend on to feed themselves and their families, as governments and some rich private investors are in large-scale agricultural investment for non-food community production; which inadventantly is affecting the standard of living of many households including food and housing. Again many farmers leaving their their farms, to work in plantations with the expectation of higher long-term returns. If le unchecked this could spell the end of small-scale farming and rural livelihood. us investments for biofuel production in SSA are to a large extent, to the detriment of the local population, as the financial powerful nations gets the most fertile land and free access to water, while the natives landlords are either displaced, dispossessed or made land-labourers. 70% of the SSA population rely on subsistence agriculture for their livelihoods. A shi from subsistence agriculture to biofuels production is very likely to adversely affect food security and exacerbate poverty and hunger in the region. Already about 30% of the SSA population are undernourished and as the population of the region grows to approximately billion by 2050, food production levels will need to quadruple to avert starvation and a major food crisis. is challenge is further heightened when biofuel production is added to the menu. is paper contributes to the growing knowledge on foreign land investment in SSA for biofuel production and its consequences on livelihoods and food security. Keywords Biofuels, food security, disaster risk management, sub-saharan Africa, conflicts, poverty 1. Introduction Subsistence agriculture is the main form of food production in sub-saharan Africa, accounting for over 70% of labour force in the region. e economies of most countries in the sub-region, such as Nigeria and Ghana, are heavily dependent on agricultural production, which makes up approximately 35% of their gross national product and 40% of foreign exchange earnings. It then follows that the increasing demand for biofuels in the region is a threat to livelihoods and food production, with commensurate implications for human security and welfare. e 2007 oil price spike; coupled with the drive for a green economy and sustainable development, have gen-

138 138 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 erated worldwide interest in biofuels. e global demand for biofuels, primarily ethanol and biodiesel, is expected to grow rapidly until at least 2020 in the United States and European Union due to consumption mandates and volatile petroleum prices. e European Union has mandated that 10 per cent of transport fuels be drawn from renewable sources by 2020: this requires a tripling of the approximately 15 billion litres of biofuel consumed in Similarly, the United States has targets to more than triple the 42 billion litres of biofuel that country consumed in 2009 by 2022 (Mitchell, 2011). 2. e case study: effects of large-scale land acquisition for biofuels production on rural livelihoods In Africa, agricultural land covers less than 15% of the land area, arid and semi-arid agro-ecological zone encompass 43% of the land area; yet the demand for arable land for biofuel production is on the increase, with the rural people being pushed off their farmlands.. e rural communities in the region depend on subsistence agriculture for sustenance; and agriculture in this region is closely tied to human welfare and livelihoods. e International Food Policy Research Institute reported that in Madagascar, negotiations with Daewoo Logistic Corporation to lease 1.3 million hectares (which represent half of the country s farming land) for maize and palm oil production played a role in the political conflict that led to overthrow of the government in 2009 (Von Braun and Meinzen-Dick 2009). e State of the World 2011 report from the Worldwatch Institute evidences large land grabs by foreign countries and corporate entities in sub-saharan Africa (Worldwatch Institute, 2011). e report further warns that these international land acquisitions are marginalizing the rights of indigenous farming communities and may trigger xenophobia, riots, coups and more hunger. e use of staple food for biofuel production will most likely highten food price increases, and the effects will harm poor households most. World Bank survey data (World Bank) from Tanzania indicates that the poorest quintile spends five times as much on maize as a percentage of total expenditure compared to the richest quintile. Since the cost of food accounts for 70-80% of household expenditure, increases in the price of staples will force many families to opt for cheaper and less nutritional options: this clearly presents health challenges and increases the risk of malnutrition. Already the FAO (FAO, 2010) report has it that about 30% of the world undernourished people live in the sub-saharan African region Food insecurity and disaster risk reduction e convergence of agro-food-fuel complexes represents a major threat to food security in sub-saharan Africa. Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preference for an active and healthy life (FAO 1996). erefore availability, access and affordability are all elements of food security. However the demographic projection indicates that approximately billion will be living in the SSA region by erefore the food production levels will need to quadruple to avert a major food crisis and probably conflicts. e addition of biofuel production to the menu is an issue of major concern. Foregin investment in agriculture for biofuel production in the SSA region where land rents are cheaper and regulatory system weaker are obviously not to the best interest of the locals. e real behind those large-scale investment on farmland according to Olivier De Schu er the UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food is that giving land away to investors having be er access to capital to develop implies huge opportunity costs, as it will result in a type of farming that will have much less powerful poverty-reducing impact, than if access to land and water were improved for local farming communities (De Schutter, 2011); which is real agricultural development. Giving land away to foreigners encourages a shi towards a more export-led type of agriculture; this will increase stresses in local food availability and access to food. Already there are pockets of conflicts and insecurity Table 1: Examples of large land deals Country Land size Remark Madagascar 1.3 million hectares of land (which represents half of the country s farming land) for maize and palm oil production. is deal played a role in the political conflict that lead to the overthrow of the government in Sudan hectares in ese land deals threatens local livelihoods as it competes unfavourably with local food production for local consumption. Zambia hectares in e fertile productive land of the local farmers is acquired while the farmers are pushed further into low yielding lands, exacerbating hunger and poverty. Tanzania hectares in Sekab of Sweden that acquired the land noted that export volume of ethanol from the project according to their projections is expected to be enough to replace all petrol and diesel used by cars in Sweden and Norway. Source: Field Work

139 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March in the region, and this could be heightened by hunger and starvation. It is therefore imperative, that governments in the sub-region be assisted with real agricultural development that addresses food availability, access and affordability, in order to avert the looming disaster associated with food insecurity. 3. Conclusions e shi to renewable energy in the context of sustainable development that necessitated the need for biofuels jeopardizes the immediate and long-term food security of the sub-saharan African region. e rising food prices, largescale land grabs, conversion of local labour to work in biofuel farms and the squabble over tenure rights are major threats that points at looming disaster risks and conflicts associated with biofuel prodcution in the region. e reliance on biofuels for energy production on the primes of going green, ignores the associated risks as well as the food insecurity dimension. References Giovanne i. G and Ticci. E (2012). Biofuel development and large-sacle land deals in sub-saharan Africa. Ansauw, W., Boche, M., Breu, T., Giges, M., Lay, T., Messerli, P and Nolte, K. 2012b. Transnational land deals for agriculture in the global South. Analytical report based on the Land Matrix Database. CDE/CIRAD/GIGA, Bern/Montpellier/Hamburg. International Land Coalition Report Graham, A., Aubry, S., Kunnemann, R and Suurez, S.M (FIAN) Land Grab Study CSO Monitoring Advancing African Agriculture (AAA) e impact of Europe s policies and practices on African agriculture and food security. Mitchell, D (2011). Biofuels in Africa: Opportunities, Prospects and Challenges. e World Bank, Washington, DC. Von Braun, J and Meinzen-Dick, R. (2009). Land Grabbing by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries: Risks and Opportunities. IFPRI Policy Brief 13. April, pp. e Worldwatch Institute (2011). State of the World Report. e Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC. e World Bank. Tanzania Human Resources Development Survey. University of Dar es Salaam and the World Bank, Dar es Salaam. FAO (2010). Food Outlook: Global Market Analysis. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Rome. IPCC (2007). Africa. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK pp FAO Declaration and World Food Summit Plan of Action. Rome. (last accessed 11/1/2014). De Schu er, O How not to think of land-grabbing: three critiques of large-scale investment in farmland. Journal of Peasant Studies. Vol 38: March (last accessed 10/1/2014) Citation Chinweze, C. (2015): Biofuels and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

140 140 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 e trend towards the Internet of ings: what does it help in Disaster and Risk Management? USLAENDER, omas a a Department ILT, Fraunhofer IOSB, Karlsruhe, Germany, thomas.uslaender@iosb.fraunhofer.de Abstract According to the Gartners hype cycle 2014, the emerging Internet of ings (IoT) has just reached the top of public awareness and expectations. However, looking beyond its use as a buzzword and the high expectations, there is a clear technological trend that will affect the amount and type of information that is available in Risk and Disaster Management. e seamless interconnection of devices to the Internet, being sensors of all types ranging from in-situ measurement devices, sensors on smart phones up to hyper-spectral cameras mounted on satellites, offers an enormous potential for the improvement in recognizing and assessing risks, for the targeted launch of preventive measures such as improved quality, preciseness and personalization of early warnings. e same is true for decision support in disaster management. However, to exploit this potential, there is an urgent need to improve interoperability. is paper argues for an open, standardized approach of sensor-based global information management based upon international standards. It provides an overview about the relevant initiatives (e.g. GEOSS, European Research Cluster on the Internet of ings IERC) and standardization bodies (e.g. ISO, OGC) and their architectural approaches for the IoT. Furthermore, it presents highlights and results of relevant projects, e.g. EO2HEAVEN in the domains of environment and health, TRIDEC for be er decision support in tsunami early warning systems, and OpenIoT for an open source IoT so ware platform. e paper concludes with an assessment of the current user requirements and technological trends as well as a discussion of the next steps to be taken in order to exploit the IoT potential for the benefit of risk and disaster management improvement, however, also having in mind cyber security concerns. Keywords Internet of ings, standards, early warning, sensors, Open IoT, disaster and risk management 1. e Emerging Internet of ings Your phone as quake detector this headline on the cover page of an ACM journal of July 2014 and the related article (Faulkner, Ma hew et al (2014) boils the Internet of ings down to its essence. Sensor-equipped consumer devices coupled to the Internet, combined with professional seismic measurement devices and other observation sensors pave the way towards community sense and response (CSR) systems with unprecedented scale and detail. Wächter and Usländer (2014) described the significant role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for the development of warning systems for geological disasters. As illustrated in Fig. 1, they map functions and characteristics of tsunami warning systems (TWS) to computing and communication capabilities of underlying ICT infrastructures. e increasing use of the Internet in the last decades already enabled the transition from farfield TWS to near-field TWS with reaction times of minutes instead of hours. While the upstream from sensor systems (see Fig. 1) benefits from the integration of physical and virtual seismic sensor networks with earth observations of sea levels, being in-situ or remotely from space, the downstream to target groups makes heavy use of Internet-based services such as electronic mail, Web portals in addition to TV and radio casting. We have now entered the era of ubiquitous computing relying upon the ubiquitous availability of Internet access, services and computing power as documented in figure 2. is emerging Internet of ings (IoT) is more than a buzzword. Although having recently reached the peak of public awareness and expectations in 2014 and, hence, just entering the phase of disillusion (see Fig. 3), there is a clear longstanding technological trend that will affect the amount and type of information that is available in Disaster and Risk Management. e seamless interconnection

141 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: Upstream and Downstream in Tsunami Warning Systems (Wächter and Usländer, 2014) of devices to the Internet, being sensors of all types ranging from in-situ measurement devices, sensors on smart phones up to hyper-spectral cameras mounted on satellites, offers an enormous potential for the improvement in recognizing and assessing risks, for the targeted launch of preventive measures e.g. improved quality, preciseness and personalization of early warnings. e same is true for the decision support in disaster management. Sensors of various types are indispensable tools in order to feed early warning systems with data about environmental phenomena and the features of interest that are relevant to assess given geo-hazards. Environmental sensing is ge ing ubiquitous as sensing capabilities are increasingly embedded in various types of objects, ranging from mobile phones, objects of daily use up to dedicated sensor platforms such as buoys or unmanned aircra vehicles. ings are ge ing smart in the sense that sophisticated data processing and communication capabilities will be directly embedded into the sensors. ese capabilities may be exploited in two ways: firstly, sensors with wireless communication and self-description capabilities may connect on local level with other sensors to form ad-hoc sensor networks. Secondly, sensor tasking may be used to request the execution of a monitoring task on the sensor level with configurable notification policies towards interested consumers, e.g. notification only when thresholds have been exceeded. CSR systems have to be integrated into systems-of-systems, not dedicated to a single region or task, but acting as service and information providers to other systems. However, to exploit this potential, there is an urgent need to improve interoperability. 2. Sensor-Based Global Information Management e interoperability between components in one CSR as well as the interaction between different CSR in a systemof-systems environment is determined by the degree of the standardization of interfaces, data exchange formats and protocols. CRS shall enable an efficient and flexible exchange of information as well as the remote call and eventually reuse of their embedded functional components across system boundaries. us, there must be an Figure 2: Development Eras of Tsunami Warning Systems (Wächter and Usländer, 2014)

142 142 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 3: e Internet of ings (IoT) in the Gartner Hype Cycle of 2014 agreement on information models and service interfaces - in the best case based on international standards. An essential element of such an IoT support is an open geospatial service platform (see Fig. 4) which provides seamless access to resources (sensor data, information, services and applications) across organizational, technical, cultural and political borders. Open hereby means that service specifications are published and made freely available to interested vendors and users with a view to widespread adoption. Furthermore, an open service platform makes use of existing standards (e.g. International Standardization Organization ISO and the Open Geospatial Consortium OGC) where appropriate and otherwise contributes to the evolution of relevant new standards. ere are various international initiatives aiming at mapping such service platforms to the Internet of ings. Two of them shall be mentioned here: GEOSS and the European Research Cluster on the Internet of ings IERC. environmental science and user community decisionsupport tools and support for the monitoring, analysis and modelling of various environmental phenomena through the integration of existing and future sources of EO information. e GEOSS work plan focuses on nine socalled societal benefit areas, among which are environmental topics but also the topic reduction and prevention of disasters (see Fig. 5). Interoperability arrangements ensure that the heterogeneous systems within GEOSS can communicate and operate. Data, information and service providers within GEOSS are guided by technical specifications for collecting, processing, storing and disseminating shared data, metadata and products. Interoperability arrangements in GEOSS are based on open standards, with a preference for formal international standards (Usländer, Coene and Marche i, 2012). Figure 5: GEOSS - Global Earth Observation System of Systems and the Societal Benefit Areas 2.1. GEOSS Figure 4: Open Geospatial Service Platform GEOSS is an intergovernmental program, coordinated by the Group on Earth Observations (GEO). GEOSS is a 10- year global program that aims to provide to the broad 2.2. European Research Cluster on the Internet of ings IERC e aim of European Research Cluster on the Internet of ings (IERC) is to address the large potential for IoTbased capabilities in Europe and to coordinate the convergence of ongoing activities. e IERC will facilitate the knowledge sharing at the global level and will encourage and exchange best practice and new business mod-

143 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March els that are emerging in different parts of the world. In this way, measures accompanying research and innovation efforts are considered to assess the impact of the Internet of ings at global and industrial level, as well as at the organizational level (see ). Two IERC-related research projects are explicitly mentioned: firstly, the IoT-A (IoT Architecture) project, that proposed an architectural reference model together with the definition of an initial set of key building blocks. Secondly, the OpenIoT project aiming at delivering an open source blueprint for large scale self-organizing cloud environments for IoT applications (see below). e objective of EO2HEAVEN (Earth Observation and Environmental Modelling for the Mitigation of Health Risks, ) is to contribute to a be er understanding of the complex relationships between environmental changes and their impact on human health. e main result of the project is the design and development of a Geographical Information System based upon an open and standards-based spatial information infrastructure envisaged as a helpful tool for research of human exposure and early detection of potential health endangerments. For this reason, the project developed models to relate environmental data with exposure and health data. EO2HEAVEN examined different Earth Observation products, especially those resources available free of charge for the research community. In order to study the impact of human activity on health the project took advantage of the availability of this long time-series data combined with its great potential to detect and map environmental variables. For this purpose EO2HEAVEN also worked on the integration of remotely sensed and in-situ environmental measurements. e SII therefore facilitates the set-up of observation and decision support systems that rely upon the correlation and fusion of earth observation, in-situ and human health data. roughout the life span of the project the stakeholder requirements from three different case studies (see Fig. 6) have been assessed and the technical solutions proposed by EO2HEAVEN were evaluated through an iterative process, thus ensuring that the solutions can be applied on a wider scale. A first case study was developed in Dresden (Germany) addressing the environment effects on allergies and cardiovascular diseases. A second case study was located in south Durban industrial basin (South Africa) and also dealt with the pollution and respiratory diseases. e third case study was conducted in Uganda and investigated the impact of climatic variables on the outbreak of cholera. 3. Resear Projects Various research projects in the domain of Disaster and Risk Management rely upon such open geospatial services and IoT paradigms and validate them in real-world scenarios. Here, we present three European projects of the 7th Framework Program: EO2HEAVEN, TRIDEC and OpenIoT EO2HEAVEN Figure 6: EO2HEAVEN Approach and its Case Studies 3.2. TRIDEC TRIDEC (Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision- Support in Evolving Crises, ) focuses on the use of new technologies to enable intelligent information management in real time. e biggest challenge is constructing a communication infrastructure with interoperable services that makes it possible to efficiently find, merge, evaluate, and manage huge amounts of information and data that are growing dynamically, both in terms of number and size. Groups of decision makers located in different places are then able to cooperate in an environment that supports the decisionmaking process. is allows them to respond to looming natural disasters such as tsunamis at an early stage, and enables them to carry out successfully all phases of complex and critical operations such as deep drilling. e TRIDEC exhibit shows the latest developments in the area of intelligent data processing for crisis management systems. One example of this is an early warning system for maritime disasters resulting from leaks in deep water drilling. Such leaks are common in oil and gas drilling operations, and can potentially cause serious environmental damage. Another example is the tsunami early warning system currently being developed for the Mediterranean and northeast Atlantic. e ways in which these systems work will be shown in live demonstrations and films, and the sensors are on display at the trade show booth. Visitors at the booth will be offered the unique opportunity to make a globe oscillate and to assess the results in a seismological correct manner OpenIoT OpenIoT (Open Source cloud solution for the Internet of ings, ) creates an open source middleware for ge ing information from sensor clouds, without having to worry about what exact sensors are used. OpenIoT explores efficient ways to use and manage cloud environments for IoT entities and resources (such as sensors, actuators and smart devices) and offer-

144 144 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 ing utility-based (i.e. pay-as-you-go) IoT services. OpenIoT will provide instantiations of cloud-based and utilitybased sensing services enabling the concept of Sensingas-a-Service, via an adaptive middleware framework for deploying and providing services in cloud environments. e OpenIoT middleware architecture comprises three main levels: the GSN-X to access and gather sensorbased information from various sources, the LSM (Linked Sensor Middleware) that processes sensor data and answers user and service requests based upon semantic technologies, and the tool level that aims at providing a userfriendly and flexible tool environment to bridge the gap to the end-user. As the OpenIoT platform is available by means of an open source license at GitHub ( ), it may be easily used and tailored for Disaster and Risk Management projects around the world. e next step will be to enhance the platform by domain-specific features for various smart ecosystems, such as Smart City, Smart Grids or Smart Agriculture. 4. Added Value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction e Hyogo Framework for Action expresses the strong need to develop and strengthen early warning systems that are people-centered as one of the priorities for action. As shown by the example of tsunami warning systems in Wächter and Usländer (2014), this goal has been widely addressed using state-of-the art Internet technology. Now the next step is to exploit the potential of the emerging Internet of ings that puts the capabilities of Internet-connected objects together with the capabilities of humans into the foreground. 5. Recommendations Having in mind the ongoing international initiatives as described in section 2 as well as the experience made by prototypical IoT applications in various research projects as explained in section 3, the following recommendations are derived Research Research activities shall be continued on the design, development and provision of an open, scalable, dependable and secure information and communication (ICT) infrastructure aiming at supporting all phases of disaster risk management. Such an ICT infrastructure should encompass sensors and actuators of all kinds, data processing and data mining capabilities as a service, tailored and user role-specific multi-lingual information display, flexible and easy-to-use decision support and as well as capabilities to downstream information to all those concerned in a reliable fashion. Furthermore, it should rely upon open ICT standards, e.g., according to standards of ISO and/or the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) have a defined service level, have tailored applications with easy-to-use, intuitive user interfaces, work also (probably in limited fashion) in crisis situations, be self-configurable, self-repairing and self-adapting, be open to all stakeholders, obey data privacy and security regulations, e.g., according to the OECD fair information principles Education and Training People shall be educated and trained how to use their mobile devices to assess risks, support early warning of disasters, behave in crisis situations and support efficient damage assessment Implementation and Training e above mentioned ICT infrastructure shall be implemented step-by-step as a global system-of-national systems in a coordinated, multi-organizational (UN, WHO, WMO, ) endeavor as a profiled interoperable application of the Internet of ings and Services. Civil-military cooperation shall be made possible in order to enable military forces to help in crisis situations in an efficient and coordinated manner. e use of such an infrastructure shall be trained on a regular basis, also taking into account partial failure of the infrastructure in time and space Policy Dialogue e design and implementation of an interoperable ICT infrastructure for disaster risk reduction requires a coordinated and harmonized approach of various global, regional and local stakeholders. Beyond the technical obstacles of syntactical and semantic interoperability of risk and crisis management applications, there is a need for agreement on policy level the common conviction and willingness to set-up and maintain such an infrastructure despite of different interests and cultures. Only a continuous policy dialogue can achieve this, encompassing both civil and military organizations. 6. Conclusions e examples show that there is a huge potential in applying the next step of the Internet the Internet of ings to challenges of Disaster and Risk Management. Community sensing and response (CSR) will be the next functional and architectural level of such systems, assuming that the problem of interoperability will be solved, and corresponding standards will be agreed upon. e OpenIoT open source platform ( ) may be used as both an experimental and operational platform. Furthermore, the architecture of risk and crisis management applications is a design artefact that results from a dialogue between experts in thematic domains such as flooding, diseases or tsunamis, and information technology experts (Usländer et al., 2010). As in traditional so -

145 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ware engineering it is a dialogue between those who express their requirements in terms of which information and functions they need, with which level of quality and dependability, and those who know about the capabilities and constraints of so ware systems and architectural styles. Today, service-oriented architecture is used more and more for the design of such applications. Hence, the architecture should reuse as much as possible standard services and existing capabilities of IoT infrastructures to get a cost-effective solution. However, a powerful ICT infrastructure such as the Internet of ings can only solve part of the problem of early warning, or in general disaster and risk management. e human factor still remains important, too. Coppola (2011) stresses that Early warning mechanisms must include public education, accurate risk perception, a communications system to relay the message, and an emergency management system to adequately coordinate the response. Public safety from environmental dangers is one of the five key elements in Environmental Security that has to be considered within and across national borders (Landholm (ed.), 1998). According to Coppola (2011) there is a need for further action and the inclusion, training and education of end-users of various disciplines (e.g., geo-scientists, citizens, emergency organizations, environmental and security agencies) including their cultural context and risk perception in order to really exploit the potential of early warning systems and their underlying ICT capabilities. Faulkner, M. et al (2014): Community Sense and Response Systems: Your Phone as ake Detector, Association for Computing Machinery (ACM), Communications of the ACM, 57(7): Landholm, M. (ed.) (1998): Defining Environmental Security: Implications for the U.S. Army, Army Environmental Policy Institute, AEPI-IFP-1298 Usländer, T.; Coene, Y.; Marche i, P.G. (2012): Heterogeneous Missions Accessibility, ESA Communications. ISBN: Usländer, T. (2010): Service-oriented Design of Environmental Information Systems, PhD thesis of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Faculty of Computer Science, KIT Scientific Publishing ISBN , Wächter, J; Usländer, T. (2014): e Role of Information and Communication Technology in the Development of Early Warning Systems for Geological Disasters: e Tsunami Show Case, in: Wenzel, F. and Zschau, J. (eds.), Early Warning for Geological Disasters, Chapter 12: , Springer- Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. Citation Uslaender, T. (2015): e trend towards the Internet of ings: what does it help in Disaster and Risk Management? In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos. References Coppola, D. P. (2011): Introduction to International Disaster Management, Elsevier Inc. ISBN

146 146 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 e Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) A Multi-Year Financial Vehicle to Secure Direct Access to Climate Adaptation Funds for Africa SYROKA, Joanna a and Wilcox, Richard b a Programme Director, African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg, South Africa, joanna.syroka@africanriskcapacity.org b Director General, African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg, South Africa, richard.wilcox@africanriskcapacity.org Abstract Experts estimate an adaptation investment cost need of $14-17 billion per year over the period for sub-saharan African countries to adapt to an approximately 2 warmer climate forecast for Climate change is particularly threatening to the future of African agriculture, which impacts global food security and the economic livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Africans. To date, funds have not been forthcoming in the magnitude required. As a result, African leaders have been exploring innovative and diverse ways to address the challenge of providing funding for climate adaptation across the continent. e Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) will be a new, multi-year financial mechanism designed to utilise both public and private capital to secure direct access to climate adaptation funds for African governments to respond to the impacts of increased climate volatility. is paper outlines the XCF concept and the work that will be carried out by African Risk Capacity a Specialized Agency of the African Union established to improve national capacities to be er plan, prepare and respond to extreme weather events and natural disasters to fully design and establish the financial vehicle for its African Union Member States. Keywords climate change, climate adaption finance, catastrophe bonds, African Union, African Risk Capacity 1. ARC Ba ground e African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a Specialised Agency of the African Union (AU). e ARC Agency leads the ARC Group, a development finance institution that provides financial tools and infrastructure to help countries manage natural disaster risk and adapt to climate change. Established in 2012, it currently counts 24 AU countries as members and is supervised by a governing board of African ministers and experts chaired by Nigeria s Coordinating Minister for the Economy and Finance, Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. In 2014, ARC launched its initial risk insurance product for member states through its financial affiliate the ARC Insurance Company Limited (ARC Ltd). ARC Ltd is a specialist hybrid mutual insurance company and Africa s first ever disaster insurance pool, aggregating risk by issuing insurance policies to participating governments and transferring it to the international market. ARC Ltd uses the satellite weather surveillance so ware Africa RiskView, developed by the United Nations World Food Programme, to estimate the impact of drought on vulnerable populations and the response costs required to assist them before a season begins, and as it progresses, so that index-based insurance payouts, based on Africa RiskView, are triggered at or before harvest time if the rains are poor. With a USD 200 million initial capital commitment provided by the governments of Germany (K W) and the United Kingdom (Department for International Development, DFID), ARC Ltd issued drought insurance policies totalling USD 135 million for a total premium cost of USD 17.5 million to a first group of African governments Kenya, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger and Senegal in May 2014, marking the launch of the inaugural ARC pool. Eight additional countries are in the queue to join the next pool in 2015, with a target of up to 20 countries receiving coverage for drought, flood and cyclones totalling over USD 600 million in the next five years. While African countries are taking action to be er manage today s weather, significant additional investments will be required to offset the predicted negative impacts of Africa s future climate and, at the very least,

147 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March maintain the current status quo where insurance, together with other risk management and mitigation measures, can be a financially effective tool for managing weather risks (Clarke and Hill, 2011). e capital required for such climate change adaptation investment in Africa is substantial however and funds have not been forthcoming to the scale required. To support the level of international funding available, as well as countries own investment in resilience and adaptation, the ARC is now developing a new financial mechanism that will track extreme climate shocks and will pay out to countries, already managing their weather risk through ARC Ltd, in the case that extreme event frequency and/or intensity increases. is facility will utilise both public and private sector funds and will facilitate direct access to climate adaptation finance for African governments. e ARC Agency was mandated to develop the concept of this financial mechanism by the African Ministers of Finance on 30 March Requirements for Climate Change Adaption in Africa Africa is widely recognised to be the region most vulnerable to weather risks. Weather-related disasters are already undermining record growth across the continent, threatening hard-won gains and vulnerable populations lives and livelihoods; increasing climate volatility can only exacerbate this and counteract the investments being made by countries to mitigate, prepare for and manage current weather risks. e World Bank estimates an adaptation investment cost need of USD billion per year over the period for sub-saharan countries to adapt to an approximately 2 warmer climate by 2050 (World Bank, 2010). To date, funds have not been forthcoming in the magnitude required and it is recognised that innovative and diverse sources of financing will be required to meet the identified needs of the continent. Moreover, in the event of large climate shi s, actions and funds assessed today may become insufficient. As adaptation finance investment grows, it will also be critical to have a fair and objective mechanism for the allocation and distribution of funds to help prioritise the geographical location of the available investment flows. e ARC Group provides an ideal platform from which to develop and operationalise a new facility that can meet such needs. Such a facility would use public funds to leverage private capital in order to diversify the sources and increase the amount of international funding that will be made available. It would secure direct access for African governments to climate finance based on the demonstrated need for enhanced adaptation measures. To a ract capital, this facility would be data-driven, tracking extreme climate events across Africa and paying out to eligible countries to undertake adaptation should event frequency and intensity increase over a longer-term period. In this event, payments from the facility could certify that changes are occurring and signal the need to boost implementation efforts. While already within its mandate¹, the ARC Agency was specifically requested by African Union Conference of Ministers of Finance in March 2014 to develop a proposal for a mechanism by which African states can gain access to financing to respond to the impacts of increased climate volatility.² Called the Extreme Climate Facility (XCF), this paper outlines the XCF concept and the work that will be required by the ARC Agency to fully conceptualise and design such a mechanism for its Member States. 3. e Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) e XCF is envisioned as a data-driven, multi-year financial vehicle that will track the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in Africa and will provide additional financing for countries already managing their current weather risks through ARC Ltd should the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather events increase. Payments to countries would be entirely data-driven over a 30-year, or a predetermined long-term, adaptation period; if there are no significant increases in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events over current climatology, then no payments would be made. Where payments are made, countries would use those funds to invest in climate change adaption measures specified in pre-defined country-level adaptation plans. Payment size would increase with extreme event number and magnitude over and above a specified threshold, corresponding to the degree of confidence that extreme events are increasing, the climate has changed and that intensified adaptation is needed. In order to a ract private capital in particular, XCF payments would be based on an objective, multi-hazard Extreme Climate Index (ECI). is index would be based on meteorological data, specified by climatic region and designed to capture the severity and frequency of heat, drought, flood and other extreme weather events important to particular regions, such as cyclones. Similar to the insurance contracts issued by ARC Ltd, the XCF payment triggering mechanism would be index-based. In contrast to ARC Ltd insurance products, which pay one country based on a specified weather event trigger, XCF payments would be given to all eligible countries in a region, irrespective of whether the triggering event(s) happened in a country s territory should the ECI in a given year exceed a pre-defined threshold, indicating an increase of severe weather across that region. e threshold would be ¹Agreement to Establish the African Risk Capacity (ARC) Specialized Agency of the African Union, (accessible online at ²Report of the Commi ee of Experts of the seventh Joint Annual Meetings of the Economic Commission of Africa Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and African Union Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance, Resolution L15/Rev.1. (accessible online at

148 148 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 1: Example of possible XCF structure and funds flow set to identify extremes in the ECI time series, subsequent breaches of which could indicate a potential shi to a new climate regime with a heightened risk of intense weather events occurring. Payments from the XCF would start small, and while early disbursements could lead to false positives in the initial years, payments would increase in size with subsequent breaches of the threshold growing alongside increasing evidence, as the years go by, of observed deviations in the ECI from the current baseline climatology. Should the trend in increasing extreme events continue, countries could stand to receive a predetermined maximum dollar amount over the facility s adaptation period, e.g. 30 years. Payments would not be linked to the underlying losses of those events those would be covered by ARC Ltd insurance contracts with each participating country but rather would be set at a meaningful level to directly support a country s climate adaptation plan pipeline. Specifically designed to access private capital, the XCF would be structured along the lines of a catastrophe bond programme, where the XCF s financial obligations over a series of three to five year financing windows³ would be securitized, issued as a bond and financed by capital provided through private bond investors. Donors would support the annual bond coupon payments to investors, thereby leveraging public capital to access larger private funds. Should no ECI-based payment events occur during the bond s tenor, the capital provided would be returned to investors at the bond s maturity, in addition to the yield collected through the annual coupon payments; should an ECI-based payment event occur, some or all of the bond s capital depending on the frequency and severity of the triggering event or events would be triggered and channelled to participating countries to implement adaptation plans (see Figure 1). e ARC already has the infrastructure in place to establish such a financial facility, with scope for the XCF to become the second financial affiliate of the ARC Agency (the ARC Ltd insurance company being the first). Should extreme events continue to occur and payments from the XCF become very likely, reflected by a decrease in premium affordability or interest from the private sector for the catastrophe bond programme, donor capital may be required to directly support XCF payments. erefore, in this model, the XCF would leverage private capital to fund the uncertain risk, particularly during the start of the 30 year adaptation period, with public money reserved to fund the more certain and frequent risk should it be required. See Figure 2 for an illustration of how the XCF could work in practice, using a 3-year tenor bond series and a worked example for one region⁴. 4. XCF Resear & Development To be effective, the following three elements must be central to XCF s design: 1) implementation-ready countrylevel adaptation plans conforming to a set standards for ³To date catastrophe or cat bonds usually have a maximum tenor of three to five years to match investor appetite, hence currently the envisioned 30 year XCF adaptation period would have to be broken down into non-overlapping shorter periods over which bonds would be issued. With time, investor interest in longer-term investments could increase making longer-term bond issues a possibility and there is increasing evidence that longer-time horizons are becoming more popular with some bonds having been issued for a period of 10 years. ere are some advantages to, at least initially, breaking down the adaptation period into smaller time increments. For example, the underlying ECI could be revisited and improved with each new issuance, more countries could be added and the payment event threshold revised given the new ECI data reported. However longer tenor cat bonds are increasingly allowing annual resets that might accommodate updates and improvements, for example, to the ECI. is is an option that will also be explored in the XCF research and development work programme outlined in Section 4. ⁴As discussed in the main text, should severe events occur, cat bond a achment levels could shi up to reflect the heightened risk in a potentially new climate regime (as shown in the Figure 2 example). Risk below this level, but above the ECI threshold, would be funded through an insurance sub-layer (shown in green). Donor capital may be required to fund this sub-layer should the affordability or interest from the private sector for the cat bond programme and/or insurance sub-layer provision decrease. Work example for illustration purposes only: Payments begin only a er second exceedance event, indicating a potential climate regime shi ; Year 9 payment of USD 30m/Country triggered to all participating countries in the region; Years 17-18, severe weather events during protection period managed through ARC Ltd; Year 23, payment of USD 50m/Country triggered from sub-layer; Year 25, payment of USD 140m/Country triggered from sub-layer and cat bond; Year 29, payment of USD 220m/Country triggered from sub-layer (USD 160m) and cat bond (USD 80m).

149 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 2: Illustration of a potential XCF in action, using a 3-year tenor bond series and a worked example for one region. climate-resilient investments, or, at the very least, a credible channel through which these additional climate adaptation funds could be directed to participating countries; 2) a data-driven mechanism to track extreme weather events across the continent in an objective manner over time, with established indices, thresholds and criteria for triggering XCF payments to regions; 3) an efficient financial vehicle that could finance XCF s obligations to African governments over time. To fully conceptualise and design the XCF outline presented above, a research and development (R&D) programme based on these three pillars will be required. Each of these pillars, outlined below, will be structured to explore a set of design questions as part of a multi-disciplinary work programme to be led and managed by the ARC Agency. Expertise to carry out some of this work programme (such as Pillar 3) exists within the ARC Group. For Pillars 1 and 2, ARC will need to partner with leading experts in the fields of climate change adaptation and climate researchers with significant experience in regional climate modelling and in extreme event detection in Africa. roughout the R&D process ARC will have to work closely with interested donors to ensure the recommendations are compatible with securing donor support for XCF s ultimate establishment and annual premium payment costs (see Section 5 for premium cost estimates). In addition, to ensure the work-stream outputs meet market requirements, the ARC will convene an informal advisory group composed of experienced catastrophe bond investors to periodically review and comment on intermediate results. e R&D programme will prepare the groundwork for establishment of the XCF vehicle targeted for Pillar 1: Country Eligibility & Standards for Country- Level Climate Adaptation Plans Pillar 1 of the research will ascertain to what extent implementation-ready country-level climate adaptation plans exist, and compile best practice for the development of investment-ready adaption plans. is work will result in: a set of standards that investment plans should meet for XCF funding and the development of an XCF investment plan template; recommendations on plan approval, implementation and monitoring standards and guidelines; country-level eligibility criteria for participation in the facility with respect to climate adaption plan quality; an assessment of country readiness for participating in a first round of XCF financing, country capacity to absorb XCF funding and therefore recommendations on XCF s optimal payment size; and recommendations on the investments required to enhance readiness across the continent for initial and subsequent XCF financing windows. To be cost effective the XCF would need to build on and support existing initiatives to develop climate adaptation programmes in Africa. Specifically the objective of Pillar 1 will be to: a Ascertain to what extent implementation-ready country-level adaptation plans already exist across

150 150 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Africa and the size, in dollar terms, of such investments; b Identify best practices for the development of implementation-ready adaptation plans; c Identify any additional work required by ARC Member States to develop appropriate adaptation investment plans ready to absorb and deploy XCF funding and provide recommendations on potential partners that could assist ARC Agency in preparing countries for XCF participation; and d Outline feasible criteria and a mechanism for evaluating and approving country-level adaptation plans for XCF participation and reviewing subsequent implementation (African Risk Capacity, 2013).⁵ e work will need to include a component to understand the extent to which existing plans (or pipeline of plans) are flexible to address country-level needs under various climate scenarios and to define which scenarios could require further scale-up or increased investment in specific plans. It should aim also to understand the feasibility of developing a XCF investment plan template that could be used as the basis for several funding tranches to a country, should evidence of increasing severe and frequent extreme weather events emerge over time. Should it emerge that investment-ready plans are not developed, the work could focus on identifying alternative and credible channels through which XCF s climate adaptation funds could be directed toward participating countries. e research for Pillar 1 will focus on ARC countries that could be candidates for initial XCF participation, i.e. in ARC member states already working with the ARC Agency, with a focus on those countries in the first insurance pool or those preparing to join in the near term.⁶ Such in-country work will help refine the initial research and would inform the final recommendations on the realistic size of the XCF facility and the work required to prepare countries for an initial phase of operation, given the status and capacity of countries with respect to preparedness and implementation of climate adaptation plans Pillar 2: Extreme Climate Indices & resholds A key feature of XCF would be an underlying analytical, data-driven mechanism that could track extreme weather events across Africa and objectively trigger payments to countries should their frequency or intensity increase, indicating a significant deviation in extreme event frequency and severity from the current baseline climatology. e ARC Group already has significant experience in developing weather indices for risk financing purposes and successfully meeting the criteria required for transferring risk to the international markets.⁷ Africa RiskView (ARV), ARC Group s so ware platform, provides a standardized methodology for quantifying weather-related food security costs in Africa.⁸ It is currently used to underpin parametric insurance contracts issued by ARC Ltd and this technology can be expanded to include other climate indicators to be used by XCF. Pillar 2 will have the following four research and development sub-components, outlined below: a) defining an Extreme Climate Index (ECI) for the climatological regions corresponding to ARC Member States; b) defining an ECI baseline and a threshold se ing methodology to trigger a sequence of XCF financing in an objective manner should an increasing frequency and magnitude of severe weather shocks be reflected in the index; c) conducting a risk modelling analysis to investigate the probability of ECI thresholds being breached in the years ahead in each region and across all regions; d) expanding ARV to include the historical and near real-time calculation of the ECI and ensuring it is market-ready to underpin XCF contracts. In addition to meeting the shorter-term XCF design and establishment needs the Pillar 2 work will also need to consider the longer-term time horizon to help ensure that, once established, the XCF will continue to evolve and improve in step with the underlying climate knowledge base with respect to the indices, baselines and thresholds it uses Defining the ECI A suitable ECI should have the following properties. It be should be: i) multi-hazard, targeting the extreme events that are likely to have the gravest impact on Africa s vulnerable populations and economic growth potential, with, at a minimum, the ability to reflect extreme dry, wet and heat events with the possibility of adding regionspecific risks events such as cyclone frequency and intensity; ii) able to capture individual extreme events and be suitable for monitoring changes in extreme climate event frequency and intensity over a 30-year or so timeframe; iii) standardised, so that it could be aggregated and compared across larger geographical regions; and iv) reflect the large-scale climate picture of a region. Finally it should be constructed from data satisfying risk transfer criteria, that is data with a consistent, sufficiently long, high-quality historical record that will also be produced objectively and consistently in near real-time going forward. e work for Pillar 2 will build on and adapt indicators already in use to identify and monitor climate ex- ⁵ARC Agency Peer Review Mechanism s standard and guidelines for contingency planning with respect to ARC Ltd insurance payouts for countries participating could be a starting point for this work component (see African Risk Capacity, 2013). ⁶A list of countries that have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the ARC Agency to work towards insurance pool participation is accesible online at ⁷ ⁸ARV is a so ware application developed by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) for ARC that estimates drought-related crop losses and the impact of droughts on the food security of populations in sub-saharan Africa. Its repository of climate data stretches from 1983-present (for more information see

151 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March tremes (e.g. WMO, 2009; Karl et al. 1996; Gleason et al. 2008) for XCF purposes in Africa, with indictors such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which can monitor both wet and dry conditions (Bordi and Sutera, 2012), likely candidates for forming the backbone of each regional ECI Defining Baselines & resholds is sub-component will define a baseline and thresholdse ing criteria appropriate for the defined ECI timeseries (see above) to detect significant changes in the index, and therefore in climate behaviour, from current levels over time. ese findings will inform how index thresholds should be set to trigger a sequence of XCF financing in an objective manner should an increasing frequency and magnitude of severe weather events be detected by the index. Building on the existing literature on signal detection and, in particular, the detection of time-dependent climate change (e.g. Bordi and Suter, 2012; Hasslemann, 1993; WMO, 2009), the work will begin by testing different criteria and methodologies against an ECI computed from data produced by long-running meteorological stations⁹ to assess the performance and stability of various approaches over long timescales and historic trends and climate variability. Timeseries analysis methods to be tested will depend on the ECI s properties, but could include approaches such as: extreme-value theory¹⁰ and Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis, to understand the modes of variability within the ECI, identifying modes associated with high extreme event probabilities, and defining indicators or thresholds that could signal the climate moving into such modes (regimes). Different approaches will then be tested against the ECI computed from data that would be used to underpin XCF financing and, if necessary, modified to accommodate historical data availability constraints.¹¹ e work will primarily focus on developing a methodological framework required to operationalize the facility in the near-term for the first three or five year financing window, but will also outline how the proposed threshold-se ing criteria could be refined and modified over the XCF s longer-term protection period as additional meteorological information is reported. In addition it will need to consider the messaging around the setting and potential breaching of thresholds and how such aspects should be clearly communicated to future XCF stakeholders and beyond Risk Modelling is sub-component will focus on simulating future ECI scenarios over the proposed XCF protection period in order to: i) test the robustness of the ECI baseline and threshold-se ing criteria proposed by the work outlined above and ii) investigate the probability of ECI thresholds being breached in the near-term, for a first round of XCF financing, and also over the long-term to estimate the possible financing flows from the facility. To the extent possible existing climate model output will be used to simulate future ECI scenarios and payment events, illustrating how such a system could work in practice and investigating the expected frequency and magnitude of XCF payouts to each region and across the continent. is risk modelling work will also present an opportunity to investigate the potential limitations and uncertainties of the proposed financing mechanism, in particular with respect to triggering (or not) funds as a results of false positives (negatives) and the possible mismatch between country-level needs and triggered finance flows at the regional level that could be expected. Implicit in this work will be a review of the proposed ECI and threshold se ing methodology, and the associated messaging, leading to modifications to the index, narrative or payment triggering mechanism, if required. In addition it will also provide recommendations on how best to improve on and update these climate-related aspects of XCF over time as the underlying climate science knowledge base continues to evolve. As a final step, the risk modelling work produced under this sub-component will most likely have to be reviewed and validated by a leading market risk modelling firm in preparation for potential market-based XCF transactions. e informal investor advisory group could advise whether such a step would ultimately be required Africa RiskView e final activity of the Pillar 2 work-stream will be to include the defined regional ECIs, and the data from which they are constructed, into Africa RiskView (ARV) so that they could be tracked over time and used to underpin XCF transactions. A secondary activity of this sub-component would be to outline the investments required for the XCF climate indices, and their underlying meteorological data, to be produced and developed independently in Africa in the longer-term Pillar 3: Financial & Legal Structure To be viable the XCF will need an efficient financial structure that can use both public and private funds to finance its obligations to African governments. e ARC Group offers a unique opportunity to quickly set-up a new facility as a second financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, leveraging the experience and significant work that went into establishing the existing ARC institutional structure. ⁹Several weather stations in Africa date back to the 1930s or earlier and would be ideal for this analysis. ¹⁰A branch of statistics dealing with the extreme deviations from the median of probability distributions. For more background see Embrechts et al, ¹¹Given the potential size of the proposed XCF facility, and the reality of limited station coverage and quality across the continent, the meteorological data that would be used to underpin XCF financing contracts would need to be produced by an independent third party or parties using remotely sensed, e.g. satellite-based rainfall estimates (as used in ARV), and/or reanalysis sources.

152 152 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Mirroring the ARC Agency and ARC Ltd arrangement whereby ARC Agency acts as the gateway for countries to participating in the ARC Ltd insurance pool by enforcing certain standards and best practices, it is envisaged that ARC Agency would play the same role for XCF with respect to climate adaption plan approval, determining a country s eligibility to participate in the new facility and facilitating country participation. As key part of Pillar 3 will be specifically to outline how such an approval process would work, the full criteria that would define eligibility and the additional capacity or strategic partnerships that ARC Agency would need to be able to carry out this gate-keeping function effectively. In order to be financially effective it is expected that any capacity building work to prepare countries for participation would be outsourced to ARC partners already working on country adaptation plan and climate resilience investments. Such partnership options will also be explored in Pillar 3 and informed by the findings of Pillar 1. In order to issue catastrophe bonds, it is likely that XCF would take the form of a special purpose company with a catastrophe bond shelf programme that would allow it to issue a series of notes indexed to XCF s ECI-based financial obligations to participating countries. For each three or five year financing window within the 30 year adaptation period, the company s function would be to enter into ECI-based contracts with participating countries for that financing round, issue catastrophe bonds fully replicating the payment triggering arrangements of these contracts to investors and then investing the corresponding principal across a series of pre-agreed highquality securities (to minimize credit risk) until the principal is triggered by an ECI threshold event thereby generating payments to participating countries or returned to investors at bond maturity. e second component of Pillar 3 will be to explore the legal and financial structuring options that could be considered for XCF to fulfil these functions as a second financial affiliate of the ARC Agency. e goal would be to identify the most capital-efficient structures with respect to establishment and operation of such an entity. e work will have to consider the jurisdiction where such an entity should domiciled, how premiums will be paid by donor partners and the entity s specific operating and governance arrangements to meet investor, donor and country requirements. is work will also outline the steps and funds required to establish and operationalise the proposed facility. Most risk-linked securities have a maximum term of three to five years; this Pillar 3 subcomponent will also explore options for reconciling the longer-term vision of XCF commitments to countries over a 30-year adaptation period vis-á-vis a sequence of shorter financing windows. 5. e Way Forward ARC Governing Board Chair Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Coordinating Minister of the Economy and Finance of Nigeria, announced the XCF at the UN Climate Summit in New York on September 23rd Over the next 18 months the ARC Agency will lead the XCF R&D programme outlined above, working with Member States and research partners. e research will build on existing work where possible, bringing together disparate disciplines to fully conceptualise and design the XCF as a viable climate risk financing proposition for African countries and their partners. e ARC is working towards the goal of having an effective and fair XCF design in place when nations convene in Paris in 2015 for the UN Climate Change Conference, with the aim of issuing the first catastrophe bonds in Initial discussions with catastrophe bond investors indicate a market appetite for between USD million of African extreme climate risk in a first three or five year XCF financing round could be feasible if all market requirements are met, indicating the potential for the facility to issue billions of dollars of catastrophe bonds over its 30 year or so lifetime. However this must be balanced by country capacity to absorb and effectively implement such funds; Pillar 1 of the R&D programme will review this capacity. e on-going cost to donors in terms of premium payments to the facility would depend on the size and expected loss of the bonds to be issued. ese costs will be determined by the R&D work programme, but will also depend on donor appetite for supporting the XCF programme once it is defined. However, for a sense of magnitude, initial costs could range from USD 3 million up to USD 15 million per year depending on the size and expected funding flows from the facility.¹² An African-led initiative, the XCF concept has global potential and, in addition to the work outlined above, how a supra-regional XCF could be structured, and the extent to which the XCF concept outlined above would have to be modified to allow for a global XCF mechanism, will also be investigated during the R&D programme. To do this ARC will collaborate with its sister insurance pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, and reach out to other regional insurance initiatives to ascertain country-level interest for an expansion of the XCF concept beyond Africa and to assess the additional work required to develop such a global mechanism. Africa is leading the way in innovative climate finance, diversifying the sources and increasing the amount of international funding available for climate adaptation for the continent. Leveraging ARC s existing infrastructure, the XCF would ensure that African countries and the international community properly monitor climate shocks and are financially prepared to undertake greater adaptation measures should their frequency and intensity increase. ¹²A rough working estimate, an annual coupon of USD 3 million could be expected for a USD 100 million catastrophe bond with an expected loss of 1%; an annual coupon of USD 15 million could be expected for a USD 500 million catastrophe bond with an expected loss of 1% or for a smaller bond with a higher expected loss.

153 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March References African Risk Capacity, 2013: Contingency (Operations) Planning Standards and Guidelines, African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg, South African (accessible online at ) Clarke, Daniel and Ruth Hill, 2013: Cost-Benefit Analysis of the African Risk Capacity Facility, IFPRI Discussion Paper 01292, Markets, Trade and Institutions Division, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA (accessible online at ) Bordi, I., Sutera A., 2012: Drought Assessment in a Changing Climate, Department of Physics, Sapienza University, Rome, Italy Embrechts, Paul, Claudia Klüppelberg, and omas Mikosch, 2013: Modelling External Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer, (2 January 2013), Hardcover, 655 pages Gleason, Karin L., Jay H. Lawrimore, David H. Levinson, omas R. Karl, and David J. Karoly, 2008: A Revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index. J. Climate, 21, Hasslemann, K., 1993, Optimal Fingerprints for the Detection of Time-Dependent Climate Change, J Climate, 6, Karl, omas R., Richard W. Knight, David R. Easterling, Robert G. ayle, 1996: Indices of Climate Change for the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, World Bank, 2010: Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change: Synthesis Report, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA (accessible online at ) World Meteorological Organization, 2009: Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decision for Adaptation, Climate Data and Monitoring, WCDMP-No. 72, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Citation Syroka, J. and Wilcox, R. (2015): e Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) A Multi-Year Financial Vehicle to Secure Direct Access to Climate Adaptation Funds for Africa. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1), Special Issue on One Health: , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

154 154 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Innovative Scorecard for Evaluating Resiliency in our Cities SANDS, Dale a, a AECOM Technology, Milan, Italy, Dale.Sands@aecom.com Abstract Climate adaptation and building resiliency in our global cities is a ma er of increasing importance. e intensity of natural disasters has reminded us of the importance to develop effective planning mechanisms, efficient response efforts and accelerated recovery efforts to return cities to steady state rapidly. By 2050 over 70% of the World s population will live in cities a substantial increase from 1913 when 10% of the global population lived in cities. While progress has been made in reducing the loss of life from natural disasters, capital losses have exceeded $2.5 trillion since AECOM, working in conjunction with IBM, developed a quantitative tool, known as the Resiliency Scorecard modelled a er the Ten Essentials of the UN ISDR Making My City Resilient Campaign, to assist cities in evaluating their preparedness and position relative to the ten essentials. e scorecard is a unique tool to gauge current position relative to the UN Ten Essentials, identify gaps, and develop action plans to improve resiliency. It provides some 80+ individual assessment questions, each scored from 5 (best practice) to 0 (worst practice). e design of the scorecard is defined as a counsel of perfection : no city today would score a 5 across all dimensions. e intent of the scorecard is to help cities understand all elements of resilience, frame a multi-year plan to optimize CAPEX and track progress. is article highlights the development of the Resiliency Scorecard, reports on applications of the scorecard, and discusses avenues for building public/private sector engagement to improve city resiliency to natural disasters. Keywords Climate Adaptation, Resiliency, City Natural Disaster Risk Assessment. Are you ready for the next natural disaster? How well you plan will dictate the magnitude of losses and the speed of recovery. Intuitively, planning for natural disasters will improve the efficiency of response and accelerate the recovery from natural disasters; however definitive quantitative information is difficult to come by. Chreve and Kelman (2014) provide an excellent article regarding costbenefit analysis of disaster risk reduction. Chreve and Kelman reviewed both backward looking and forward looking actions and found a range of cost-benefit outcomes. e general rule of thumb o en used, but not necessarily documented, is that each one dollar spent in planning for a natural disaster may mitigate 4to7 in recovery costs. Activities underway with the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Making My City Resilient Campaign has a racted over 2200 cities who have pledged to take deliberate steps in improve resilience; these Cities will form a baseline for which the effectiveness of natural disaster planning steps taken can be more fully evaluated. ese cities have joined the Campaign in support of the Ten Essentials and commi ed to improve resilience. In these challenging economic times, it is difficult to justify investment for planning for potential future events, however these cities are making decisions and taking actions to improve resilience. While other communities may be challenged to maintain current response and recovery plans for natural disasters, the effort to develop resilience plans in response to climate adaptation has never been more important. Munich Re noted the frequency and intensity of natural disasters is creating annual capital losses in excess of $200B per year, and is increasing. In three of the last ten years, capital losses have exceeded $250B/year. Accordingly, the World Economic Forum in 2014 ranked climate change and extreme weather events as the second most significant risk in terms of likelihood and impact (WEF, 2014). e severity of these events has increased due to the rising density of people living in major metropolitan areas. A hundred years ago only 10% of the world s population resided in cities, however by 2050 it is estimated that 70% of the world s population will reside in major metropolitan areas. e percentage today living in ma-

155 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: AECOM & IBM Resilience Scorecard jor metropolitan areas is estimated at 50% of the worlds population. It is with this in mind that AECOM and IBM collaborated to prepare a Disaster Resilience Scorecard (DRS) for cities to assess their degree of preparedness to respond to natural disasters so as to develop a multiyear plan to improve resilience. e DRS was issued to the public domain via a UN press release in February, e DRS is a unique quantitative tool that is based upon the UN ISDR Ten Essentials as denoted in Figure 1. e Ten Essentials were issued in the UN Making My City Resilient Campaign launched in In 2011, the UN ISDR formed the Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG) to provide advice and participation on disaster risk reduction. It was within the UN ISDR PSAG that AECOM and IBM collaborated, pro bono, to produce the DRS. Additional UN ISDR activities related to the DRS include the biannual publication of e Global Assessment Report (GAR), a comprehensive summary of climate related data and climate adaptation actions. e most recent GAR was published May, 2013; and the next report will be issued in Another very important initiative launched by the UN ISDR is Project R!SE, a campaign to raise awareness and funding for resilient investment. e R!SE Initiative was launched in May, 2014, at the UN Offices in New York City. e DRS has 81 questions with defined scoring protocol using a 0 to 5 rating scale with 5 as the highest possible score for each question. Each question is rated so that a normalized score is derived which can serve as an objective benchmark for a city to gauge progress year to year. e DRS algorithm defines a point in time state of preparedness and provides the insight to set critical, near term priorities for improving resilience. Clearly, an important outcome of the DRS application is to create a multiyear action plan to set priorities for decision making and investment for regulatory action and for code improvements. Cities are complex, with a multitude of inter-related systems in place to serve their residents. Resilience is a cross cu ing activity that brings the city departments together to identify and implement actions to improve resilience. An example of the scorecard is illustrated in table 1 for Essential 1. In summary, design engineering is a key element to build resilience for disaster risk reduction. e appropriate building materials (Concrete, metal, mortar, wood, coatings, polymers, etc.) must be selected based upon the type of natural disasters unique to the area. By establishing a benchmark score of natural disaster preparedness, a city may achieve many objectives vulnerabilities defined, citizen awareness improved, and resilient investments created, coalesce inputs from many stakeholders, all which will lead to build a city that is sustainable. Local citizens and the community in general will benefit by understanding the risks faced, plans to be executed and recovery actions to be taken when a natural disaster occurs. e private sector is an integral member of the community and must participate in disaster risk reduction. e public and private sector working together may evaluate different disaster scenarios to assess their vulnerabilities, leverage best practices to mitigate effects to the extent possible, in adapting to a period of climate change. e public

156 156 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Table 1: e Disaster Resilience Scorecard Subject/Issue Item Measured Indicative Measurement Indicative Measurement Scale Organization and Coordination Co-option of physical contributions by both public and private sectors Effectiveness of grass roots organization(s) throughout the city Identification of physical contributions for each major organization Presence of at least one non-government body for pre and post event response for each neighbourhood in the city. Grass roots organization meeting frequency and attendance. Clear identification and coordination of pre and postevent roles for grass-roots bodies, supported by training. Roles agreed and signed off, preferably via MOU or similar. 5 - All key contributions fully defined for pre- and postevent, underwri en by MOUs. 4 - Most key contributions defined - some minor gaps in coverage. MOUs may not exist. 3 - Some contributions formally defined but full leverage of private sector yet to be achieved. 2 - One or two contributions defined for specific areas - perhaps via informal agreements. 1 - Plans being developed to seek contributions. 0 - No private sector contribution defined. 5 - Grass roots organization(s) addressing full spectrum of disaster resilience issues exist(s) for every neighbourhood, irrespective of wealth, demographics, etc. 4 - >75% of neighbourhoods covered % of neighbourhoods covered % of neighbourhoods covered 1 - Plans to engage in neighbourhoods and maybe one or two initial cases 0 - No engagement 5 - for >75% of neighbourhoods, one meeting per month, all personnel roles staffed and 10x formal role-holder numbers in regular a endance. 4 - for 50-75% of neighbourhoods, one meeting per quarter - all roles staffed and 5x role-holder numbers in a endance. No meetings in the rest. 3 - for 25-50% of neighbourhoods, semi-annual meetings, but with some gaps in roles and less than 3x role-holders in a endance. No meetings in the rest. 2 - for 25-50% of neighbourhoods, annual meetings, but with significant gaps in roles and less than 3x role-holders in a endance. No meetings in the rest. 1 - Ad hoc meetings in less than 25% of neighbourhoods of a few enthusiasts. 0 - No meetings 5 - for >75% of neighbourhoods, roles are defined and filled, coordination is effective within and between grass-roots bodies, and full training is both provided and a ended. 4 - for 50-75% of neighbourhoods, roles are defined and agreed, but some minor deficiencies in these or in training, or incomplete staffing in some cases. Coordination generally good but some lapses. No roles defined in the rest. 3 - for 25-50% of neighbourhoods, most roles defined, but with more significant emissions, some training but with gaps in coverage, coordination adequate but could be improved. No roles defined in the rest. 2 - for 25-50% of neighbourhoods, a few key roles defined, but coordination is absent or poor and training notably incomplete. No roles defined in the rest. 1 - Plans in place to define roles and develop coordination mechanisms. 0 - No roles defined and no coordination and private sector work best when they work together to define actions to plan for, respond to, and recover from natural disasters. Insurers also have a unique role in this as well, bringing keen insight into cities that improve resilience, ultimately leading to lower insurance premiums that are more resilient to natural disasters. In summary, improving resilience in our cities is an imperative given the change in climate and increasing migration of people to urban areas. Planning, response and recovery are three different but inter-related actions that each requires a set of activities coordinated by public sector leadership. e synergy between the public and private sectors must be further developed. Improving resilience locally must be custom fit to the local infrastruc-

157 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March ture, the exposures and risks. e DRS is one tool to examine preparedness in response to natural disasters and is a valuable tool in developing a multi-year plan to improve resilience and to gauge progress year to year. References C.M. Shreve, I.Kelman Does Mitigation Save? Reviewing costbenefit analyses of disaster risk reduction. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10 (2014) World Economic Forum. Insight Report Global Risks 2014 Ninth Edition, ISBN -13: ISBN-10: Citation Sands, D. (2014): Innovative Scorecard for Evaluating Resiliency in our Cities. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

158 158 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Comprehensive Disaster Risk Modeling for Agriculture STOJANOVSKI, Pane a, and MUIR-WOOD, Robert b a Cat Risk Research, LLC Cupertino, USA & Institute for Catastrophe Risk Management (ICRM) at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU) Singapore, panes@catriskresearch.com b Risk Management Solutions, Inc., London, UK, Robert.Muir-Wood@rms.com Abstract e paper identifies the needs of the public sector (governments) to have access to comprehensive disaster risk models for agriculture ( AgriCat ) capable of quantifying the risk across the entire agricultural enterprise. is is particularly the case for countries exposed to disasters, where significant proportions of economic activity, poverty eradication, human development, and livelihoods are associated with agriculture. e proposed AgriCat risk modeling framework is based on the principles of structured physical risk modeling for property CAT risk, employing the probabilistic event based approach. It delivers four outputs relevant for the agricultural enterprise: a) loss of capital stock (barns, equipment, land, etc.), b) direct loss of income (from crops, livestock, fish etc.) due to the disaster, c) loss of nutrition (i.e. in particular when production is providing nutrition to the producer), and d) indirect loss of future production (in years following the disaster). e outputs also include functionality restoration time information defined as time to replant and grow to maturity the crops (seasonal and permanent), and time to repair and restore functionality of other capital assets (e.g. Livestock, warehouses, silos, the land, etc.). Fully accounting for the disaster impacts using this modeling approach would enable governments to promote, comprehensive agricultural risk management programs, involving improved resilience of the agricultural sector as well as risk transfer through insurance / reinsurance mechanisms. Keywords comprehensive disaster risk modelling for agriculture, AgriCat modelling, holistic risk management, agricultural risk, public private partnerships, disaster risk quantification, public agricultural enterprise 1. Motivation In low income and developing countries agriculture is a significant part of the economy providing income and substance to the rural poor, and where poverty is combatted through a variety of rural and agriculture related initiatives. When disasters strike, as manifested in numerous historical disasters, the impacts can have a profound deleterious effect on poverty eradication, and human development indicators. ese countries need comprehensive risk management programs across the agricultural enterprise to manage these disaster risks holistically. Governments in these countries are increasingly looking to establish public private partnerships (PPPs) to manage disaster risk, in particular through insurance. While the current focus is on crop insurance, in many countries there may be the potential for much more significant disaster losses far beyond the capacity of crop insurance schemes to cover. In the conversations aimed at establishing PPPs for comprehensive agricultural risk management, the governments need to consider the potential for all facets of risk to the agricultural sector as well as the requirements of models to assess the risk of these outcomes and provide the basis for risk transfer mechanisms. Such models would need to provide output metrics beyond financial loss for all parts of their agricultural enterprise, such as lloss of capital stock (barns, equipment, land, etc.), direct loss of income (from crops, livestock, fish etc.) due to the disaster, loss of nutrition (i.e. in particular when production is providing nutrition to the producer), and indirect loss of future production (in years following the disaster). Based on these risk metrics governments could seek risk transfer solutions that best protect their entire agricultural enterprise and development goals. is paper sets out the steps of how to create comprehensive agricultural exposure, and how to apply the principles of structured risk modelling based on the procedures established for analysing property Catastrophe risks to the insurance industry.

159 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Agriculture Disaster Risk - Low Income & Developing Countries Low income and developing countries have significant participation of the agricultural sector to the country s GDP. In such countries disasters can have profound impacts on the agricultural sector and consequently on their economic development, poverty eradication efforts, and human development. Agriculture is a source of employment and income, contributes to a country s food security, generates export revenues, sustains rural development, it provides nutrition and livelihoods for poor farmers, it is an important part of poverty eradication initiatives, and it supports human development of the poor. Laframboise and Loko (2012) cite research findings¹ that disasters have a significant negative impact, including long term impacts on growth, poverty and social welfare as well as the danger of poor being pushed into poverty traps. As a result rural agriculture is widely supported by donors and NGO s. As an example, figure 1 portrays some countries with high exposure to catastrophes where significant proportions of economic activity and livelihoods are associated with agriculture in Central America, the Caribbean, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Central American and Caribbean countries - Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Haiti are exposed to hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, landslides, periodic droughts and some volcanic activity, and have experienced extreme disaster losses in the past. e three countries in South Asia Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar are all populous, and heavily dependent on agriculture (dominated by small holders). Pakistan is exposed to earthquakes and monsoon driven flooding, as well as occasional droughts. Bangladesh has been exposed to droughts, cyclones and floods (much of the country is inundated during the summer monsoons). Myanmar has much the same perils as Bangladesh, plus significant earthquakes and landslides. In Southeast Asia - Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia, although not low income countries, are similarly impacted. Indonesia is affected by earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions, floods and droughts. Philippines is exposed to typhoons, landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanism, while Vietnam has some typhoon exposure, and is heavily exposed to catastrophe flooding in the Mekong and Red River delta. African countries Mozambique, and Madagascar depend heavily on agriculture and have been historically exposed to droughts, cyclones and floods. Figure 1: Proportions of economic activity and livelihoods are associated with agriculture in several countries in Central America, the Caribbean, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. e horizontal axis reflects the contribution of the agricultural sector to country s GDP, the vertical axis the participation of the agriculture labor force in the country s labor force, and the size of the circles and the labels the percentage of the population living under the poverty line². A brief review of the impacts of the 1998 hurricane Mitch on the agriculture enterprise of Honduras is helpful to identify the needs for comprehensive agricultural risk modelling form governments and public sector perspective. UNDP BCPR (2013) summarizes the effects of Mitch with more than fatalities, one third of the population being affected, and with inflicted economic damages of USD 3.8 billion (almost three-quarters of the total GDP in 1998). Damages to the agricultural sector have been estimated as USD 2 billion contributing over 50% to the total economic loss (ibid). Honduras agriculture is dominated by small holders and poverty eradication efforts by the government significantly rely on financial support by various donors (IFAD 2011). e impact on the production of the principal industrial and export crops (bananas, sugarcane, coffee, melon and African palm), which significantly contribute to country s export and foreign currency revenues, is shown in figure 2 on the le. e right hand side of figure 2 illustrates that the direct losses (within the year) contributed only about 25% to the total loss for industrial and export crops due to the losses to permanent crops that required between 2 and 7 years to reach predisaster production levels (ECLAC 2003). Hurricane Mitch increased the incidence of infant and child malnutrition up to three times in Nicaragua (that was also heavily impacted by the disaster) Rentschler (2013). Further evidence of long term negative impacts on welfare indicators of households, such as consumption, earnings and labor market outcomes, has been presented for several countries including Honduras. A er hurricane Mitch Honduras households earning less than $250 per ¹Hallega e, S., and V. Przyluski, 2010, e Economics of Natural Disasters: Concepts and Methods, Policy Research Working Paper 5507 (Washington: World Bank). Norris, F.H., 2005, Range, Magnitude and Duration of the Effects of Disasters on Mental Health: Review Update 2005, Dartmouth Medical School and National Center for PTSD, Hanover and Boston Santos, I., 2007, Disentangling the Effects of Natural Disasters on Children, Doctoral Dissertation, Harvard University ²CIA Fact Book, 2014, ( )

160 160 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 2: Immediate impacts of disasters may significantly impact the revenues from agriculture in the season and several seasons following the disaster, as it was the case for industrial and export crops in Honduras a er hurricane Mitch. e graph on the le shows the direct losses and the one on the right the indirect losses. person per year were unable to fully recover their predisaster asset levels even in the long term (ibid). e effects of the 2010 Pakistan floods further illustrate the devastating impacts of disasters on agriculture and subsequent economic impacts for low income and developing countries. e 2010 Pakistan floods affected 20 million people, with almost 1800 fatalities, and 1.6 million homes being affected (Hoffmaister et al., 2012). e cost of damages has been estimated at $10 billion, with the agricultural sector contributing 50% of the total. Recovery and reconstruction costs have been estimated in the range of $6.7 to $8.9 billion. Heavy dependence of Pakistan economy and development policies on agriculture resulted in profound economic losses loss of 5.3 million jobs, drop of the predicted GDP of 4.5% to -2% to -5% and increase of the country indebtedness from IMF for the recovery costs (ibid). Between 60 and 88 percent of the farming households in Pakistan reported losses of more than 50 percent of their major crops: rice, vegetables, co on, sugar and fodder. e Pakistani government reported that the disaster severely impacted poverty reduction efforts leading to increases in poverty driven by the loss of assets and sources of livelihoods³. As per the World Food Program report, 70% of the Pakistan population, mostly in the rural areas, did not have access to proper nutrition, with an associated long term impact on human development and increase in poverty⁴. A 2013 report estimated that the Pakistan economy grew at an average rate of 2.9 percent per annum for three years a er the disaster, which is less than half of the 6.5 percent achievable growth in the absence of human and economic losses from the floods⁵. e above examples highlight that in low income and developing countries disasters can have profound impacts on the agricultural sector and consequently on their economic development, poverty eradication efforts, and human development. e agricultural enterprise in a low income country comprises a number of stakeholders (ministries of agriculture, economic development agencies, banks, international organizations e.g. UN / FAO, as well as international development agencies and donors. While there will be a focus on immediate financial losses, of greater concern will be long term losses (in the years following the disaster) with impacts across the entire agricultural enterprise including loss of livelihoods, loss of nutrition, and negative impacts on poverty and human development. Figure 3 conceptually summarizes the smallholder agricultural enterprise that needs to become more resilient to disasters. e horizontal axis in figure 3 captures the loss components, while the vertical axis portrays the loss takers. Figure 3 reflects the current reality that most of the catastrophe agricultural losses across the entire agricultural enterprise are taken by the poor farmers which creates significant liabilities of the governments for the wellbeing of the farmers. In this situation, disaster affected countries where significant proportions of economic activity, human development, and livelihoods are associated with agriculture require comprehensive disaster risk management programs across their entire agricultural enterprise. In order to design, assess and stress test such programs the governments need access to models that would provide quantitative risk metrics for the entire agricultural public enterprise. 3. Comprehensive Disaster Risk Modeling for Agriculture (AgriCat Modeling) Previous two sections highlighted the need of governments to have access to comprehensive disaster loss modeling for agriculture. In this section, we provide details what is needed and how such AgriCat models could be build. Disasters are rare events with severe consequences. e historical record of disasters is too short to provide a comprehensive sample of all the extreme events that can happen. Hence it is necessary to create a stochastic set of potential events, in effect a representation of all the extremes that would be experienced over a period of tens of thousands of years. en it becomes possible to explore what magnitude of impacts can be expected at a range of relevant return periods (or annual probabilities) as an objective measure of the disaster risk, along with the average annualized cost of that risk. e degree of de- ³ ⁴ ⁵

161 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 3: In a smallholder agricultural enterprise only small part of the disaster risk is transferred through crop insurance that typically covers agro inputs, while livelihood losses (nutrition, human development, and growing season and long term income of farmers) are le to the governments and poor farmers. tail of insurance catastrophe risk models has been driven by the needs of underwriters to be able to identify how to price individual risks as well as by portfolio managers, and reinsurers exploring the potential for risk to be correlated across the insurer s portfolio. In the insurance sector, model results are implemented throughout the insurance vertical: from pricing homeowner s insurance policies to structuring catastrophe bonds. In the case of agriculture in low income countries, the broad spectrum of stakeholders that would benefit from comprehensive agriculture disaster risk modeling could be placed in the vertical of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, where agriculture and rural development are closely related. is vertical spans from an individual farmer in Madagascar wanting some safety net to guard against the consequences of being hit by a tropical cyclone, to a UN agency concerned about protecting a long term program for poverty eradication. Application of a comprehensive disaster risk model for agriculture can also be relevant for middle and upper income countries in which insurance is more widespread, as models and products have not previously taken a holistic approach to considering all the ways in which extreme events can impact the agricultural sector. As with risk modeling for property, comprehensive agriculture disaster risk modeling will require different inputs and risk metrics according to the stakeholder. However, the basic architecture of such models has much in common with insured property loss modeling and for many of the perils the hazard models can be the same. Agriculture includes a diverse range of activities. For example: Salmon are farmed in giant cages submerged 30. under water, sometimes tens of miles from the nearest coastline. is type of aquaculture is exposed to a range of hazards among which will be extreme waves accompanying major storms. When cages are breached or torn apart, or moorings are broken, the fish can escape, when there will be direct losses to the tools for production (cages, mooring, etc.) as well as loss of product, i.e. the escaped fish. In Asian and Central American countries (China, Philippines, Honduras, Nicaragua) shrimp farming has grown into an important sector of the economy, in particular for the coastal rural populations. e principal hazard can be storm surge or tsunami flooding, damaging the pond facilities and washing away the stock. Another very widespread and equipment-intense form of agriculture at middle latitudes employs green houses and cloches made of either glass or plastic sheeting to grow early season flowers, vegetables and fruits. In higher latitudes these facilities will have computer controlled heating and cooling facilities and artificial lighting. e Netherlands is the largest

162 162 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 greenhouse producer with more than hectares under glass houses. e principal perils to these facilities are hail and wind. If damage happens in the winter season then the production in the facility may all be lost to frost. To outline how agricultural models should be structured we need first to develop a map of all the ways in which damage and losses can be caused, and then to follow the consequence of these impacts on the agricultural production, and into the resulting losses in incomes and food for consumption. Losses can be classified into three categories: a. Losses to assets involved in agriculture (such as equipment, barns, roads, land etc.) b. Short-term losses to agricultural production within the season (either through direct impact of the hazard agent on the crop, or indirect as through damage to equipment, loss of manpower, access etc.) c. Long term losses to agricultural production over multiple seasons, including permanent losses. Clearly losses to assets may or may not have consequences to production. Many losses to production will have an impact only over a single season, but some will have consequences for multiple seasons. It is worth exploring the definitional difference between an asset involved in agricultural production and the production itself. For example a sheep is an asset to produce both milk and wool. A walnut tree is an asset for producing walnuts. However the sheep can also be sold as food, just as the walnut tree can be sold as firewood but then there is no more production of milk, wool or walnuts (as well income from this production). e principle of the modeling is to quantify impacts in terms of lost value, and lost production. ese estimations of short and long term, direct and indirect damages, could then, for example, be fed into separate micro- and macroeconomic models to show the expected impacts on local poverty or on national policies and economies Disasters and Agro Hazards Disasters affecting agriculture can include Flood, Frost, Droughts, Typhoons (wind, flood, and landslides), Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Flood can be associated with flash flooding from intense rainfall as well as extended inundation on major river systems. Long lasting flooding (water logging) could prevent replanting of crops, or for certain crops may cause ro ing of the roots and loss of the harvest or loss of the plants. Droughts will tend to be regional in extent; the most severe and persistent may last for more than one growing season. Earthquakes affect mostly the farm buildings and infrastructure, although in steep terrain earthquaketriggered landslides may cause losses to the agricultural land and planted crops. A major earthquake may also seriously damage the roads, silos and warehouses, thus impacting local access to food. An earthquake could also lead farmers to abandon the fields to deal with the emergencies and repairs of their houses, thus impacting production. For volcanic eruptions the chief peril will be ash fall. While causing short-term damage to foliage on crops and trees in the long term the ash can fertilize the soil and increase productivity. For farms close to a volcano, damage can be caused by blast damage, by fire or even by lava flows. Some disasters such as tropical cyclones and floods will have their own seasonality. Others can happen at any time in the year. e timing of the disaster relative to the growing calendar can have a big impact on the agricultural losses. If a disaster (such as a typhoon) strikes in the early stages of development (e.g. in the vegetative or flowering phase) it may be possible to re-plant and salvage (at least part o ) the harvest. If it strikes just before the harvest is collected the lost production may be total. e impact will largely depend on the resilience of the crops affected, as well as on the ability of producers to mitigate the long term losses. Where there is extensive damage to permanent crops (e.g. bananas, coffee, fruit trees ) it may take several years for replanted crops to reach maturity and full production, leading to indirect long term losses. erefore it is important to distinguish between seasonal crops with their annual or more frequent sowing cycles and permanent orchards, plantations etc., as well as the differences in the susceptibility to damage of the different plants. For example, 1974 hurricane Fifi⁶ made landfall in the northeastern part of the Honduran Atlantic coast, and damaged an area of highly productive land that was home to livestock, banana, African (oil) palm, maize and rice cultivation. Banana plantations were practically destroyed. Seasonal crops - rice and maize in the flooded area were washed away. However more resilient oil-palm plantations nearby sustained the strong winds and more than two weeks of flooding without significant long term damage. Extreme flooding in high relief landscapes can lead to losses of the fertile top soil. Eroded land may not be worth recovering in particular where steep terraces are destroyed. Livestock caught in the inundation of a broad flood plain is highly vulnerable. In the 2010 Pakistan Floods 1.2 million of livestock (excluding poultry) died, while in Honduras heads of ca le were drowned in the flooding that accompanied Hurricane Mitch. Direct and indirect disaster losses can also be generated in fishing and fisheries. For example, Hurricane Mitch damaged 365 fishing vessels (from both artisan and industrial fleets) and also caused direct damages to the very profitable coastal aquaculture production of shrimp, by flooding the fishing ponds, destroying the larvae for restocking the ponds, and damaging the packing facilities. e indirect damage was estimated as 2.5 times the value ⁶

163 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 4: Risk modeling requires that all components of the exposure across the entire agricultural enterprise (physical and human) to be captured by a Geographic Information System (GIS) database. For each segment of the enterprise agricultural assets at risk should be identified and classified (e.g. land, infrastructure, facilities, tools and equipment, crops in the fields, crops in storage, livestock in facilities, etc.). of the annual shrimp harvest, including the value of lost income over the time taken to bring the ponds back to the pre-disaster levels of production (ECLAC 2013). In evaluating the impact of the production losses on impoverishment in low income countries it may be helpful to distinguish between losses to crops that provide household sustenance and those additional crops that generate income. Loss of sustenance and income has particularly acute impacts on child health, schooling etc. with associated long term implications Exposure for AgriCat Modeling Agricultural disaster modeling needs to capture all the relevant exposure information for the quantification of direct and indirect damage of the agricultural enterprise, operating over both short term and long term. e structure of a comprehensive Exposure Database intended to capture the principal elements of disaster agricultural loss is shown in figure 4. All components of the exposure should be captured by geo-referenced location typically employing a Geographic Information System (GIS) database. At a minimum the resolution of such data would typically follow the finest resolution administrative divisions at town or parish level. is will also be the resolution at which production and other agriculture related data are typically aggregated. Placing all agricultural exposure information on a GIS platform makes it possible to overlay the exposure with modeled hazard footprints for the quantification of the disaster losses. Where statistics on agriculture are not available at the highest administrative resolutions, it may be necessary to disaggregate the data to the finer resolution by using satellite observations of agricultural land cover. For the purposes of risk modeling we need the different categories of agricultural exposure classified and identified. is could include the area under cultivation of different crops (such as cereals, fruit, fish, prawns etc.), crop varieties, and their growing seasons. Also, we need to include the nature and values of agricultural equipment that could, for example, be lost in an extreme flood as well as the nature and values of the infrastructure that supports the farming whether it is greenhouses, fish ponds, fish cages, irrigation equipment etc. We also need details of the buildings that support the agriculture, including those used to protect equipment, or store the harvest and agricultural inputs (e.g. seeds and fertilizers).

164 164 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Lastly we require geo-referenced information to find which lands are located within the floodplain and which are susceptible to landslides (according to the slope of the terrain and the underlying geology). Key elements of the exposure or assets at risk in figure 4 comprise six principal categories: 1. Agricultural (farm) land & Infrastructure 2. Agro facilities (buildings and structures) 3. Tools and Machinery 4. Agricultural products in production (crops and livestock) ) 5. Products in storage and facilities (harvested crops, battery livestock, agro inputs, etc.) 6. People whose labor is required to support the agricultural production, and whose livelihood depends on agriculture Figure 4 articulates the type and general information format of the capital assets at risk that need to be assembled by GIS resolution level and by producer type. Agricultural producers, their farming and husbandry practices, their equipment, their incomes, their products distribution etc. are specific to the social and political environment of a country. Generally we grouped them into smallholders and marginal farmers, cooperatives, independent producers, and corporations. e category of assets is similar across all types of producers (from smallholders to large plantations), though specific details and values may be very different (e.g. between equipment owned by smallholders and that held by industrial-scale agricultural producers). ere are two basic crop production cycles seasonal and permanent. Seasonal production requires planting, growing to maturity, and harvesting the crops every growing season. Grains are typical seasonal crops. Permanent production involves planting, growing the crops to maturity a year or more, and then having recurring harvest cycles. Trees (fruits, nuts, etc.), bushes (coffee, tea) are typical permanent crops. e distinction between seasonal and permanent crops is important and necessary for estimation of the direct (short term) and indirect (long term) losses. Exposure data should also include information on the entity whose income and livelihood depends on agricultural production from small holders, to large scale industrial farming operations. Women are particularly critical for smallholder agricultural production, and can also be the most vulnerable to a loss in small scale food production. Figure 4 contains an example of information necessary to model the impact of disaster on the human capital involved in agriculture, including the role of local agriculture in providing nutrition Disasters and Agricultural Vulnerability Modeling In order to model the impact of the hazard on the exposure it is necessary to know the vulnerability of the different agricultural assets. Vulnerability needs to address the direct impact of the hazard on the producing asset, as well as the indirect loss of production as a consequence of the degree to which the farm has the ability to restore the asset and the production to the pre-disaster level. Direct and indirect losses require different measures: a. Direct losses measured through the direct loss of the agricultural assets affected (e.g. for crops and livestock as loss / reduction in the expected production, and for buildings and infrastructure as percent of the replacement value). is loss could be total or partial loss. b. Indirect losses measured by the down time, or time needed to bring the production back to pre-disaster level a er re-planting the crops. Re-planting may for example be prevented by the effects of the disaster (e.g. water logging, extended floods, or drought preventing planting for extended periods). Seasonal crops (annual or more frequent sowing cycles) could be brought back into production in the next season provided that other agro inputs are available, even earlier if the growing season could be salvaged with re-planting in the same season (depending on the time when the disaster strikes). Permanent crops may take several years to reach maturity, e.g. walnuts 5 to 7 years, coffee about 4 years, bananas 8 to 12 months, etc. Future livestock productivity could also be impacted by the stress to the animals caused by the disaster (ca le losing weight, dairy cows reducing milk production, etc.). Data on the expected physical volume of production by crop of interest (including long time series of data on production, planted areas, and yields) will be required so as to quantify the indirect physical losses. e notion of direct and indirect loss in agriculture is similar to the notion of property and business interruption loss in conventional disaster loss modeling for insurance. e development of the relevant vulnerability functions requires specific expertise on crop sensitivity to the various hazards, such as droughts, strong winds, flooding, ash fall etc Wind Vulnerability Buildings, barns, warehouses, packing, processing, harbor facilities, etc. are affected by strong winds in the same way as other buildings and facilities included in property catastrophe loss modeling. Damage from wind and water ingress is considered in terms of the percent loss of value for that building type and occupancy relative to the wind speed. e range of structures included would range from warehouses down to small storage barns. Machinery and equipment classed as Contents could be stored in the agricultural facilities (e.g. drying, packaging and other equipment), or directly exposed to the wind (e.g. a water supply tower with a tank on the top). Barns may also contain stores of fertilizers, or seeds that could be ruined by water ingress. Barns may also protect animals such as pigs or ba ery chickens, which will suffer large scale mortality should the building collapses or through the inability to provide heat during winter.

165 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Products in the field include standing seasonal crops, permanent crops, and livestock. In general, livestock in the fields and on the pastures is not very sensitive to wind. Windthrow to trees is very species dependent, although most data on the subject has been developed for forest trees, as for studies in Puerto Rico a er category 4 hurricane Hugo in 1989⁷. In the early stages of development of cereals (e.g. corn) high winds can cause root lodging or stem breakage⁸. Root lodging occurs most frequently during the mid-growing season before brace roots are established and when soils are wet. Greensnap, on the other hand, occurs when the force of the wind is sufficient to cause the stalk to break and is most common during rapid vegetative growth and before stems mature and are lignified. Damage to cereals and seasonal crops is crop and species specific Flood Vulnerability Flood modeling needs to include not only the flood depth and duration at a location, but also consider situations in mountainous terrain when agricultural land is damaged through significant erosion or from stones on the fields. In such situations the degree of potential erosion or deposition could be a component of the flood loss modeling. Flooding has the potential to destroy any equipment that is inundated, including barns and houses. Animals housed in barns are extremely vulnerable if they cannot be evacuated. Crops and livestock in the fields in areas of strongest flooding are typically swept away or drowned. Flood vulnerability of the crops is a function of the flood depth, and duration of the flood. Flood tolerance of permanent and seasonal crops is species dependent, and it should be taken into account in evaluation of the loss due to flooding (water logging). Seasonal crops are typically not very flood tolerant. For example, while rice is a crop which requires a lot of water, most of the standard varieties cannot withstand stagnant flooding for more than about a week, as it prevents the plant accessing the necessary sunlight and essential gas exchanges. (Floods in 2006 in the Philippines resulted in a rice crop loss of $65 million⁹). Permanent crops (e.g. trees) are generally more flood tolerant. e interaction between the soils, the trees and the flood characteristics determines the flood tolerance of the trees¹⁰. During flooding soil is affected by poor soil aeration creating oxygen deficiency for the tree, the most important environmental factor. Adult healthy trees tolerate flooding be er than younger or older trees Landslide Vulnerability Landslides (including mud flows) could be activated by various triggers - earthquakes, excessive rainfall, and hurricane induced rainfall. ey occur in hilly / mountainous areas when slopes lose their stability as a result of the strength of shaking, depth of saturated soils, or lack of vegetation on the slopes. Landslides will cause high losses to all agricultural assets in their path Components of AgriCat Models AgriCat, i.e. a comprehensive agricultural disaster risk model, needs to account for all relevant exposure categories in the assessment of the total impact on the agricultural enterprise. It should include all the principal loss causing hazards, contain the ability to quantify the vulnerability of the exposure to these hazards, and provide relevant risk metrics or outputs. AgriCat risk model needs to provide outputs relevant for the agricultural risk stake holders, which can be fed into other models, such as macroeconomic and agricultural economics models. For all these different purposes the outputs could be separated into the following categories: Loss of capital stock (barns, equipment, land, etc.) Direct loss of income (from crops, livestock, fish etc.) due to the disaster Loss of nutrition (i.e. in particular when production is providing nutrition to the producer) Indirect loss of future production (in years following the disaster) ese model output categories should provide the required risk metrics from the perspective of all the various stake holders. To aggregate different loss categories, as well as to aggregate disaster risk with other risks, it is necessary to monetize the loss. is may require additional information: the replacement value of the capital stock, prices per unit of agricultural production (crops, livestock, etc.). Model outputs for indirect losses, which are driven by the time needed to restore the production and the income streams, would include functionality restoration time representing time to replant and grow to maturity the crops (seasonal and permanent), and time to repair and restore functionality of other capital assets (e.g. warehouses, silos, the land, etc.). e model should help identify where the highest losses are likely to be situated and hence which farms will be worst impacted. Consistent with standard catastrophe loss models, AgriCat risk model has to be stochastic (probabilistic) and event based, covering all extremes that would be experienced over a period of at least years. Losses for each stochastic event, together with a measure of uncertainty around the losses, would be generated and stored in an event loss table or ELT. From the ELT an Exceeding Probability (EP) curve and a number of standard risk ⁷Jess K. Zimmerman, Edwin M. Everham III, Robert B. Waide, D. Jean Lodge,Charlo e M. Taylor and Nicholas V. L. Brokaw; Responses of Tree Species to Hurricane Winds in Subtropical Wet Forest in Puerto Rico: Implications for Tropical Tree Life Histories ; Journal of Ecology, Vol. 82, No. 4 (Dec., 1994), pp ; ⁸ ⁹ ¹⁰

166 166 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 metrics could be derived and used for rational quantification and management of the disaster risk to agriculture. Figure 5 shows an example of the EP curve, the average annual Loss (AAL), and the loss for a given return period (LossRP). EP curves and derived risk metrics could be conveniently developed at various resolutions by country regions, by producer type, by crops, etc. as per the needs of the stakeholders. Another consideration for modeling will be the timing of the disaster relative to the agricultural calendar, according to whether crops have already been planted and their maturity leading up to harvest. of return periods, and provides event based tail catastrophe losses from extreme events associated with significant damage and disruption to the entire agricultural enterprise including insurance. Development of the proposed agricultural catastrophe loss modeling capability would be necessary to assist the governments in finding full solution to holistic agricultural risk management, for which insurance could provide one part of the solution. In principle the standard crop insurance (which needs improvements) could remain as the frequency cover for agricultural incomes, combined and supplemented with catastrophic loss insurance arrangement by the governments to ensure quick disbursement of funds to assist and protect the livelihood of the farmers a er a disaster. Figure 6 visualizes the relationship between modeling for agricultural insurance pricing and the proposed AgriCat modeling framework. Figure 5: Risk modeling of disaster risk provides quantitative risk metrics that capture the severity and frequency of the loss distribution. For example, an EP curve portrays the probability of exceeding a given level of loss, the area under the curve represents the average annual loss (AAL), return period (RP) is the reciprocal of the exceeding probability, while LossRP is the loss for a given return period AgriCat Modeling vs. Agricultural Insurance Pricing Models It is appropriate to address the relationship between existing models and pricing tools for agricultural insurance and the proposed AgriCat modeling. ere have been various studies, pilots, and publications articulating insurance solutions for agricultural risk in low income countries incorporating weather based indices, yield based indices, or some combination of the two. ese are all crop loss models outpu ing deviations from the expected yields and agricultural production. Crop loss mechanisms are focused around providing index insurance for production volatility, principally related to the weather, with products designed to offer support in the range of 5-20 year return period impacts. is modeling is not event based, but explores the probabilities of achieving some index value, based on the analysis of past meteorological observations and reported yield statistics. e outputs of such models are employed by insurers and reinsurers for seasonal pricing of the risk and include technical premiums (average annual loss) for specific types of insurance contracts as well as statistically based PML s (or return period losses). AgriCat modeling framework covers the entire range Figure 6: Agricultural insurance loss modeling is based on past meteorological observations and reported yield statistics (short time series and in some cases disaster years being excluded). It covers production volatility for short return periods. While useful, it cannot properly account for extreme disaster losses. AgriCat modeling framework covers the entire range of return periods, and provides event based tail catastrophe losses from extreme events associated with significant damage and disruption to the entire agricultural enterprise including insurance. 4. Observations and Conclusions Until now agricultural risk modeling has been narrowly focused on crop modeling and yields variability, mostly for the purposes of pricing insurance / reinsurance contracts (annual or for a growing season) in countries where governments provide significant premium subsidies. In these models the tail risk metrics used do not reflect the underlying physical relationships or loss causing mechanisms they are purely statistical and cannot rationally cover the tail extremes. is in turns has an impact on the transparency of the conversations related to tail risk between entities ceding the risk and entities taking the risk.

167 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March In this paper we have focused on AgriCat risk modeling, covering losses in assets and production across the entire agricultural enterprise. We have considered the outputs of the proposed modeling framework and their relevance and possible linkages with macroeconomic and agricultural economic models. e countries in which this approach is likely to be most impactful lie at the intersection of significant catastrophes with regions where high proportions of economic activity and livelihoods are associated with agriculture. While neither India and China is poor (in terms of the size and breadth of their economies) both have huge numbers of poor farmers with livelihoods at risk, and the proposed concept could be applied there as well. AgriCat risk modeling framework quantifies the tail risk based on the principles of structured physical risk modeling for property CAT risk, employing the probabilistic event based approach. e procedure is intended to deliver four outputs relevant for the governments agricultural enterprise: a) loss of capital stock (barns, equipment, land, etc.), b) direct loss of income (from crops, livestock, fish etc.) due to the disaster, c) loss of nutrition (i.e. in particular when production is providing nutrition to the producer), and d) indirect loss of future production (in years following the disaster). e outputs from the proposed modeling framework include functionality restoration time information defined as time to replant and grow to maturity the crops (seasonal and permanent), and time to repair and restore functionality of other capital assets (e.g. livestock, warehouses, silos, the land, etc.). We did not address in detail the issue of the timing of the disaster relative to the agricultural calendar, which impacts the ability to recover the production and the revenues generated from it. Conservatively, this could be addressed by assuming a disaster strike with maximum exposure e.g. late in the season when key crops are being harvested and are mostly in the fields, and no replanting is possible. In further developments more sophisticated linkages between crop volatility of yields (production) and disaster risk models need to be completed, once the proposed framework for comprehensive disaster risk has been implemented, tested, and used. An essential step for developing AgriCat risk model involves building of a comprehensive Exposure Database on a high resolution GIS database that includes all agricultural producers in a country small holders, cooperatives, independent producers, large producers, etc. is database should capture the principal agricultural assets: agricultural /farm land and infrastructure, agro facilities (buildings and structures), tools and machinery, agricultural products in production (crops and livestock) on the land (in the fields), products in storage and facilities (harvested crops, ba ery livestock, agro inputs, etc.), as well as people whose livelihood depend on agriculture and whose labor is required to support the agricultural production. e proposed AgroCat modeling framework will be effective if it is applied across the entire agricultural enterprise. References Laframboise, N., Loko, B. (2012): Natural Disasters: Mitigating Impact, Managing Risks, International Monetary Fund Working Paper 12/245. United Nations Development Programme, Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery UNDP / BCPR (2013), Climate Risk Management for Smallholder Agriculture in Honduras. International Fund for Agricultural Development IFAD (2011), Enabling Poor Rural People to Overcome Poverty In Honduras. ECLAC (2003), Handbook for Estimating the Socio - economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, Agriculture Sector, LC/MEX/G.5 Rentschler, J. E. (2013), Why Resilience Ma ers, e Poverty Impacts of Disasters, Policy Research Working Paper 6699, e World Bank, Sustainable Development Network. Hoffmaister,J.P., Stabinsky, D., anki, N. (2012), Loss and damage: key issues and considerations for the Bangkok regional expert meeting, Briefing Paper on Loss and Damage, ird World Network, Asia and Eastern Europe Regional Meeting, August 2012, Bangkok. Citation Stojanovski, P and Muir-Wood, R. (2015): Comprehensive Disaster Risk Modeling for Agriculture. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

168 168 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Climate ange: narrow illusions, broad risks. MASTROJENI, Grammenos a, a Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, grammenos.mastrojeni@esteri.it Abstract Sector by sector projections of abundance and safety create an illusion overshadowing the overall unsustainability and the fact that a man-induced unbalance in nature could trigger an unbalance in human society that will re-impact nature and paralyze human response, initiating a potentially global, catastrophic cycle. What risks might we have to face? is article discusses the conception of a standard analysis approach to harness the complexity of global warming. Keywords climate change, systemic instability, adaptation, matrix of complexity 1. e broad picture Sector by sector, projections give an illusion of abundance. e fossil energy industry to give just one example - is fed up of predictions about the imminent peak of oil output: new technologies, new sources, new locations, new market perspectives, make it clear that we still have a good way ahead. e same can be said about agriculture against growing populations and shrinking lands, manufacturing against market crisis and pollution, and so on. But then, if we consider every single segment in the context of the limits of our home planet, the outcome changes: there is no free lunch. It is true that technology can greatly improve the ratio between invested capital and production benefits, and this opens the sector by sector perspective of abundance and sustainability. But ever growing improvements, encouraging in each sector, are not enough to compensate the overall erosion of our planet s resources. Different sectors are competing among them also for sustainability resources and the overall result - to put it in the terms of the ecological footprint is that today humanity uses the equivalent of 1.5 planets to provide the resources we use and absorb our waste and it now takes the Earth one year and six months to regenerate what we use in a year. In practice, this means that yes! Oil output for instance - will still be there for a while. But even oil industry should be concerned if its emissions favor global and trans-sector dynamics that erode livelihoods as a whole and can lead to social instability even in their extraction areas, making their abstract abundance just una ainable in the real world. Environmental erosion has many faces, but one is particularly threatening and clear in its implications. Already in its groundbreaking Report of 2006, e Economics of Climate Change¹, Sir Nicholas Stern pointed out that a moderate and bearable investment in mitigation now would prevent a much heavier investment in adaptation to climate change in the future. is conclusion with few criticisms is now widely accepted. Nonetheless, it is a fact: greenhouse gases emissions, on a global scale, are on the rise. erefore, irrationally, we opted for a bigger effort in the future to escape a lesser one now. It is only human, if each decision is taken based on a sector by sector illusion of abundance. e accent, thus, is on adaptation we chose to give up mitigation - a strategy which is obviously overlapping on risk management in a way that should concern also private stakeholders. But, what do we have to adapt to? Or - in other words, but it means exactly the same - what kind of risks do we have to prepare for as societies, industries, and individuals? 2. Mankind and the ecosystem With global warming, more and more extreme weather events await us: almost everyone agrees. But, to what extent do they represent a risk? What chains of consequences do they set in motion? And what about nonextreme but progressive, wide impact, changes in climate pa erns? And what if, as some models suggest, the whole climate system is heading to a general abrupt shi a global and permanent extreme weather event - in case we reach some tipping points? And, should we consider the fact that the impact of climate change on human society could come through other natural modifications caused by climate change, like ocean acidification and depletion, increase of areas of incidence of diseases, or pre- ¹N. Stern, (2006), e Economics of Climate Change: e Stern Review, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

169 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 1: Example 1: UN Secretary-General s report on Climate Change and its Possible Security Implications, September 2009 (A/64/350), page 6. historic viruses frozen in permafrost waking up? Finally and most importantly, what will be the behaviors that the shi ing climate paradigm will induce in human society? Strenghten its determination to mitigate and adapt, or foster conflicts and divisions that will paralyze mankind and leave it incapable of reacting in a united, effective, and coherent way? Climate evolution localized or general, abrupt or progressive puts in motion cycles of consequences that oblige us to rethink the amplitude of two concepts: disaster and risk. Diminishing agricultural yields, for instance, cause migrations, pressure on urban areas, tensions for land and water, possibly violence, affect the capability of families to educate their children or to invest in the growth of their economic activity, and so on. e ever faster melting of the Arctic modifies maritime routes, opens a race for natural resources, destroys the life and culture of native Inuit populations, etc. Examples could be multiplied indefinitely, and even what we labeled Arab Springs have been in part caused by climate change. Do these dimensions that go well beyond immediate damages to infrastructures or assets imply risks? Are these dynamics a disaster? In our instinctive and classical way, these phenomena belong to other areas of planning and management. But, indeed, the risks management community cannot ignore them. And, summing them up, they are the key systemic risk mankind is facing, because a disorderly transition to a new climate paradigm brings about all the ingredients of mankind division and conflict: if the financial crisis of 1929 was enough to divide nations and ultimately bring them to World War II, what about a rapid melting of the Himalaya glaciers? A scenario in which the huge areas regularly irrigated by rivers born in the Asian chain swi ly become lands in which extreme droughts follow disastrous floods glaciers act as reservoirs of water that regulate constant output - means that hundreds of millions of people will be deprived of their livelihoods: if the same socio-economic dynamics that led to the last world war are triggered, in a region where four States China, India, Pakistan and Russia have nuclear bombs, we have the ingredients of World War III. An unbalance in nature, caused by mankind, this way could trigger an unbalance in human society that will re-impact nature and paralyze rational human response, initiating a potentially global, growing, catastrophic cycle. We have to understand this complexity and prepare for it. Above all, while we still have time, maybe in this light we understand what adaptation will really mean: possibly coping with a world of States failure, violence, famine, diseases, disorder, lack of services, and much more; and maybe finally we decide to seriously invest on mitigation, to escape from a horizon where risk management becomes number one priority for every individual and organization. 3. Beyond illusions: Gaia s Matrix With some historical exceptions that at times brought to the collapse of entire civilizations mankind was able to build a growingly complex society taking for granted a stable and unchanging ecosystem. Since we kick-started a trend of growing modifications, this reflects on all aspects of human life, inducing changes that cumulate, interact, and have to be monitored and managed. Awareness of such complexity dates back to the 1980s and emerged clearly in the logics of the first Global Environment Outlook, released by UNDP in Since then, various at-

170 170 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 2: Example 2: Scheffran J., Brzoska M., Kominek J., Link P.M., Schilling J. (2012), Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, Volume 336 n. 6083, tempts to build a prism of interpretation and integrative management have been launched, many of them focused on risks. Figure 1 and 2 show two examples. Many more analysis of this kind exist and, notably, the latest editions of the Global Risk Report do place climate change within a framework of influences among various worldwide risks. Each contribution is extremely valuable where it highlights different nexus and perspectives and explores segments of this complexity. Nonetheless, the time is ripe to a empt to extract from them a standard predictive tool, simple enough to be practical but comprehensive enough to portray the complexity. Repercussions and interferences among various dynamics and different sectors can be described in terms of a matrix, reflecting two aspects of globality: geographical worldwide interconnectedness and global systemic interconnectedness. Indeed, tackling climate change and its consequences is not a task that can be conceived in a national nor private - perspective so that, on a global scale, the aim of the matrix is to establish a relationship among different orders of factors. e problem is how complex should it be and which factors should it take into account. A long examination of the approaches undertaken so far suggests that a good balance between simplicity and the need to cover relevant sectors is assured by investigating cyclical repercussions among environment, peace and stability, development, and human rights. In this light, if our immediate goal is to assess likely impacts of global warming on human society, we could conceive and be guided by a unilateral matrix: Figure 3: unilateral matrix is provides a guideline to assess immediate impacts of environmental modifications on the most relevant aspects of mankind s organization. Yet it is not enough: we are not only victims of a change that we have caused ourselves, we are also actors of its future developments and this fact emerges, while its implications become predictable, if the matrix becomes dynamic and multilateral:

171 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 4: dynamic and multilateral matrix is is not an easy tool to maneuver and we are far from being able to use it as a rigorous quantitative tool. Still, it gives the perspective of the interconnectedness of the planet and prevents illusions frequently created by analysis and forecasts run sector by sector. e proposal is therefore to policy makers, but also to actors of different industries, to develop this broader approach in evaluating risks and assets for the future in their own field of activity; one that confronts us with a forgo en reality: we are part of the ecosystem, embedded in a web of reciprocal relations with it, not above nature as we proudly thought. We may feel rich and strong in our own nation, industry, or family; but in the planetary cycle, please, do not feel safe too soon. Citation Mastrojeni, G. (2013): Climate change: narrow illusions, broad risks. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

172 172 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia MONTIÉN TIQUE, Wilmer Fabián a and PEÑA GUZMÁN, Carlos Andrés b a Santo Tomás University, Bogotá, Colombia. wilmermontien@usantotomas.edu.co b Manuela Beltrán University, Bogotá, Colombia. carlos.guzman@docenmtes.umb.edu.co Abstract e present work is focused in formulate a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia through the implementation of the Municipal Plan for Disaster Risk Management (MPDRM) Methodology, which was developed by the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) in 2012, its structure is based in two components: Risk Scenarios General Characterization and a Programmatic component. According that, the first was made a diagnostic,this for Identification Risk Scenarios, however, during the bibliography review, it evidenced that the information presented different time scales, therefore it was made an Identification Risk Scenarios by Landslides, Floods and Earthquakes, using the Guide for the Preparation of Land Use Plan Methodology developed by Agustín Codazzi Geographic Institute (IGAC). A er that, e MPDRM Methodology establishes that it must prioritize the Risk Scenarios by the evaluator criteria, nevertheless, it was made a technical process to have a good support in the priorization using the SEI SRE (So ware Engineering Institute-So ware Risk Evaluation) methodology (specifically in the risk priorization component) developed by the United States, and a probabilistic risk evaluation, where involved the use of CAPRA GIS So wares, whose results showed that the landslides risk scenario was the most critic, followed by the flood and earthquake scenarios. A er that, it was made the risk scenarios characterization, whose results showed that deforestation and rainfall were the principal causes, moreover some solutions were formulated. e second component focused in the programs and actions formulation respect to the risk scenarios. Finally a cost-benefit analysis was made, where the conclusion was that the inversion cost in risk mitigation was similar to the cost of the programs and actions formulated. Furthermore, it was made a multicriteria analysis using M-MACBETH So ware with the objective to estimate the benefits and limitations of the MPDRM Methodology. Keywords Natural Risk Management Plan, Identification risk scenarios, Probabilistic risk evaluation, multicriteria analysis 1. Introduction e climate change in Colombia is one of the biggest challenges that is facing in the present century (United Nations Development Programme, 2010) due to threat over the people (especially in the poor populations) and the development process of the country, besides, during the last years Colombia has been suffer many winter waves ( ) especially associated by La Niña, this phenomenon was an strongest of the last 50 years until now (National Geographic, 2013), as consequence, the country suffered many disasters by floods and landslides (Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo, 2010) affected 28 of the 32 departments of Colombia, where Cundinamarca was one of the most affected, specifically over these municipalities: Chía, Cota, Útica and San Antonio del Tequendama (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2000). Unlike the other cities, San Antonio del Tequendama has high risk areas by landslides, floods and earthquakes (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2000), according to a report in 2008 by National Prevention and Disaster Direction institute, in San Antonio del Tequendama has been 236 emergencies until now, 84 of them were by floods and the other ones were by landslides (Dirección Nacional de Prevención y Atención de Desastres, 2012), affected more than 300 families, near to 725 people affected and 225 homes destroyed (Registro Único de

173 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Damnificados, 2012). Due to those events, e Mayor of San Antonio del Tequendama has been implemented some projects to mitigate the impact of those risk scenarios, where its inversion cost has reached $2140 million dollars, however, they have not been enough, because there are only 3 projects implemented in Prevention and Disaster Sector, like adequacy buildings walls and slopes stabilization (Concejo municipal de San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012), postponing another inversions that could be implemented in prospective and preventive actions like municipal risk management plan and emergency response strategies (Corporación Autónoma Regional de Cundinamarca, 1991). According that, the municipality seeks to fulfill the need to have fewer risk disaster situations and possible magnitude lower (Ingeniería y Geotécnia Ltda Ingenieros Consultores, 1995), and more effective risk management by floods, landslides and earthquakes scenarios too. For this reason is necessary to formulate strategies for risk management (Concejo municipal de San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012). e Municipal Plan for Disaster Risk Management (MPDRM) is a planning instrument that prioritize, execute and implement actions focused in risk management process (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres- UNGRD, 2012), which was developed by the UNGRD in 2012 (Ministerio de Interior y de Justicia, 2012), its structure is divided in two components: (i) Risk General characterization and (ii) Programmatic component. According that, the first was made a diagnostic, this for Identification Risk Scenarios and the second focused in the programs and actions formulation respect to the risk scenarios (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012). is paper presents a formulation of the MPDRM to San Antonio del Tequendama for landslides, floods and earthquakes, proposing solutions for mitigation and preventive the risk over municipality and evaluates the MPDRM through multicriteria analysis. 2. Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia 2.1. Risk Scenarios General Characterization Municipality diagnostic San Antonio del Tequendama is located in the Cundinamarca department, his height of 2700 m, with an area of 82 km2, where a big part of the territory is rural, represented by its 23 communities (60 km2) and the rest is represented by 4 urban center populations (20 km2) (figure 1). e current population is people, where 70% of the population is working in agriculture activities and the other 30% is dedicating to the poultry and pork sector and other activities. Geologically the municipality has two faults: Bituima fault (in the west) and Corraleja-Zaragoza fault (in the east), moreover peaks and ridges characterize their physiographic, where 10% of the territory is flat, 25 % hilly and 65% rugged. Finally, the territory presents a bimodal annual rainfall regime with an average rainfall of 1500 mm and an average temperature of 20 (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012). Figure 1: San Antonio del Tequendama Municipality delimitation Identification and priorization of the risk scenarios e methodology establishes that this component must be define using secondary information supported by all national risk institutes like the UNGRD, however, a er made a review of the bibliography, it evidenced that this one presented different timescales, then a technique process was implemented using the Guide for the Preparation of Land Use Plan methodology developed by IGAC, which involved the identification of high risk zones, considering cartographic maps at different scales (1:10000, 1:5000) and the parameters related to slope and erosion, defined in the methodology, for example, with greater slope, greater susceptibility of landslides (figure 2). Nevertheless, this process only applied for landslides scenario, the other ones be worked with mapping (Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi-IGAC, 1993). According with the parameters defined by the IGAC methodology and the process that involved geoprocessing and cartographic overlay maps (natural hazard maps on public infrastructure maps), it could get the maps showed below, where, by their a ributes (color legend), it could be possible do the identification of high risk areas in the 3 scenarios. Due to risk is defined as the combination between two elements: threat and vulnerability, the first one is related to the probability of occurrence of an event (fire, flood) and the second one, focused in the degree of resistance or set of elements against the occurrence of an event like a natural hazard of a given magnitude, reflecting how exposed is a community facing one or more threats, (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012). erefore, the municipality has 1529 houses (85% rural and 15% urban) exposed against landslides, 375 homes (90% rural and 10% urban) exposed by floods and 1158 households (60% rural and 40% urban) exposed by earthquakes, the results showed that 80% (12200 people approximately) of the Municipality population are vulnerable to the 3 risk scenarios evaluated (landslides, floods and earthquakes), where the rural ones are the most vulnerable followed by urban population centers. Once they were identified, it continues with the MPDRM methodol-

174 174 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Figure 2: Landslides related to slope (upper le ), landslides related to the erosion degree (upper right), flooding potential areas (lower le ) and earthquakes potential areas (lower right). ogy, which establish it must prioritize the risk scenarios by the author criteria, nevertheless, it was made a technical process to have a good support in the priorization in order to have a be er argument at the moment of characterize them (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012) Risk scenarios evaluation Unfortunately in Colombia there is not a standard methodology focused in prioritize natural risk scenarios, for this reason, it was review five methodologies developed by several institutes of the United States like So ware Engineering Institute, then it reviewed advantages, disadvantages, features and approach by each one, where the SEI SRE (So ware Engineering Institute So ware Risk Evaluation) methodology developed by the institute mentioned (Department of Energy ality Managers, 2000), was the only one who adjusted, nonetheless, it is important to clarify that only the Risk Scenarios Priorization component of this methodology was extracted to this chapter, which is based in a building matrix, where a risk level is defined using two elements: Frequency and Severity (Stern, 2011). e SEI SRE methodology establish for the frequency estimation that it must review the events historical data of the risk scenario to analyze, then it must to do a probabilistic analysis using probabilistic distributions with its goodness of fit by Chi squared test (Department of Energy ality Managers, 2000), as a result, Poisson distribution was the one who adjusted to the events historical data behavior, whose result showed there is more probability that presents more than two disaster situations per year by landslides and flooding than two or only one event, categorized as: Landslides (Common), floods (Probable) and earthquakes (Casual) according to the parameters defined in the SEI SRE methodology. e severity estimation involved a combination between the qualitative method of the SEI SRE methodology with a probabilistic risk analysis using CAPRA GIS so wares, where physical and human vulnerability functions were obtained, the first one is associated to the damage that could be expected of an asset in dependence of a natural hazard situation, measured in Mean Damage Radio (MDR) or economic value required to rebuild the while affected, depending of the natural hazard intensity, for example meters deep, the second one is associated to the involvement occupants level of a building on terms of the expected number of victims with respect to the natural hazard intensity too (Consorcio de Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN) América Latina, 2011). e figure 3 (vulnerability function by floods in terms of the kind of infrastructure: Grouting with only one floor (M1) with its standard deviation) was generate using CAPRA GIS So ware by their ERN Vulnerability mode, considering as primary information the main kind of infrastructure in the municipality, which was unreinforced masonry walls with concrete slabs armed low and medium

175 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March (Consultores, INGETEC Subestación Paraíso, 2013). Also an analysis of severity was made using Monte Carlo simulation so ware (PALISADE Corporation, 2013), which took into account multiple severity scenarios for each risk, as a result the landslide scenario was the most critical because its MDR reached high cost around $1880 billion dollars, followed by earthquakes scenario (MDR of $370 billion dollars) and floods (MDR of $3 billion dollars). Figure 3: Vulnerability function by flood scenario. e severity results showed: Landslides (Critical), earthquakes (Critical) and floods (serious), took into account the parameters defined in the SEI SRE methodology. With the frequency and severity results for each risk scenario, it continued to define the risk level based in the intersection of the two elements in the matrix establish by the SEI SRE methodology. e final results of the priorization indicated: 1. Lanslides risk scenario 2. Flood risk scenario and 3. Earthquakes risk scenario Risk scenarios characterization Once prioritized risk scenarios in a technical way, it continued with the MPDRM methodology, where all the risk scenarios were characterized, determining historical background, threatening phenomenon description, its causes, vulnerable populations and a future analysis, which includes aspects like measures for risk reduce, this information was consolidated in the formats established by the MPDRM methodology (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012), as a result it obtained: Landslides risk scenario: e most important aspects in this scenario were the main causes which human activities such as deforestation for agriculture and livestock were the principal ones (Henao, 2009), as well as buildings homes in high risk areas, also the bimodal annual regime in the territory (Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, 2012) that significantly influences in soil properties (Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi-IGAC, 1993). Among the actions that were formulated to mitigate and prevent the risk included: Implementation of early warning systems in the municipality. Optimization and management in pipeline water resource system. Preparation of press bulletins (web, radio and television) to keep people informed. Updating landslide hazard maps. Relocation activities to families in high risk areas. Monitoring programs to prevent deforestation and the suitability of vegetation areas for agriculture and ranching. Update the Land of Use Plan, building codes among others. Execution of drainage and infiltration (avoiding excess pressure and erosion) as surface coatings as well as the subsurface drainage waters as filters in trenches, vertical wells and draining beds. Containing soils structures, reforestation in some areas (infiltration increasing). Rocks containing structures and stuffed counterweight (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005). Floods risk scenario: is scenario was similar to the previous one, because the human activities mentioned were the same main causes of this scenarios, but there are two more, one of them is the se le of many people along the hillside of the Bogotá River, due to the kind of land use in those areas for intensive agricultural uses (Planeación Ecológica Ltda- Ecoforest Ltda, 2012) as well as the municipality vocation that is mostly agricultural. Among the actions formulated were: Strengthening the monitoring of hydrometeorological stations in the territory, in order to have a complete database for further analysis (databases without missing values for very long periods of time). Large channels either dredging or rectifying margins, removing sediment that hinders the flow of streams and river channel of the Bogota River. Levees, generating a barrier that would contain an increasing, either longitudinal or transversal. Preparation of press bulletins (web, radio and television) to keep people informed. Update the Land of Use Plan, building codes among others. Updating floods hazard maps. Cross works as gabion dikes (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005). Monitoring in building houses located in high risk areas.

176 176 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Earthquakes risk scenario: Unlike the previous scenarios, this one happens more by natural causes than anthropic ones, due to the earth dynamic processes (Chaux, 1998), as well as the presence of the two active geological faults, but until now, there have not been emergencies situations for this phenomenon, however as actions formulated were: Execution of drills, evacuations and related activities to reduce the vulnerability of the population. Set points for the affected community shelter in case of a critical situation. Establish points of contact between the communities. Forming emergency brigades to help provide proper care to affected people in an emergency. Structural reinforcement measures in houses exposed and management in future constructions in the municipality under Earthquake Resistant Standard 2010 (Departamento Nacional de Planeación-DNP, 2005) Programmatic component is second component focused on developing programs and improvement actions against the risk scenarios analyzed, sectored into three components that are part in risk management: Risk knowledge, Risk reduction and Disaster management (Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, 2012), each one has associated a set of actions and programs, whose information was consolidated in formats established by the MPDRM methodology, which aspects like indicators, target population, program costs and the expected results were indicated (Tables 1 and 2). For example: Table 1: Programs format to Landslide risk sceneario. PROGRAM 1. RISK KNOWLEDGE 1.1 Socializing with the community belonging to high risk areas on all relevant information of the identified risk. 1.2 Updated and generation of technical studies and risk maps. PROGRAM 2. RISK REDUCTION 2.1 Formulation of improvement actions on the main risk causes. PROGRAM 3. DISASTER MANAGEMENT 3.1 Evaluation of structural and non-structural alternatives. Table 2: Actions format to Landslide risk sceneario. Evaluation of structural and non-structural alternatives. 1. OBJECTIVES Assess structural and non-structural alternatives. 2. DESCRIPTION OF THE ACTION From the formulation of alternative solutions to landslides risk scenario within the characterization component, assess which would be the most appropriate to implement in the main critical areas, in order to reduce the potential risk and manage disaster if any event occurs for this phenomenon. Risk scenario which the action is involved: 3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ACTION Target population: Place of action: Term: 4. LEAD Performing Organization or institution: Interagency required: coordination Disaster management 6116 people Mainly in San José, Chicaque La Rápida, Vancouver, Zaragoza, ebradagrande and Caicedo communities. 6 months. e municipality, the CAR and private companies. e municipality, the CAR and private companies, the UNGRD, CLOPAD risk institution and CREPAD risk institution. 5. PRODUCTOS AND EXPECTED RESULTS Generate a report which evaluated the alternatives and their respective approval criteria for future projects arise. 6. INDICATORS Name operational: Indicator definition: 7. ESTIMATED COST Number of structural and non-structural measure adopted for its implementation Number of measures implemented Number of projected measures Depends on the number of approved measures, however, estimated costs of the main measures used by some municipalities are: Implementation strategies of emergency in the community. $16366,61 dollars. Soil retaining structures, rocks containment, protection fillers slope counterweight and coated. Between $174031,64 and $436442, however those ones depend of many factors Cost-benefit analysis A er analyzing the cost of implementing of programs and actions formulated, it realized that the costs reach $ 2070 million dollars compared to $ 2140 million dollars already invested in actions formulated by the municipality to mitigate the risk, which financing sources could be resources from the National Fund for Disaster Risk Management and the state as well, therefore, it is more feasible invest in

177 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Figure 4: Model results of the multicriteria analysis using M- MACBETH so ware. those programs which focused in reduce the level of risk and municipality socioeconomic vulnerability to continue investing in actions to mitigate the risk once the emergency occurred (Departamento Administrativo de la Presidencia de la República, 2013) Multicriteria analysis is last chapter was centralize to make a survey of experts from many national risk institutes through a survey (European Union, 2005), whose results were reflected in M- MACBETH so ware (Measuring A ractiveness by a Categorical Bases Evaluation Technique) developed by Carlos Bana, Jean Marie De Corte and Jean Vansnick in 2005 (Bana, 2005), the results (figure 4) indicated that one of the major limitations of MPDRM methodology was that it does not specify the way to prioritize risk scenarios on the other hand, the structure analysis in the risk scenario characterization was one of its benefits. 3. Added value for the post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction e formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan through the MPDRM methodology was focused on the five priorities for action within the framework of Hyogo since its application aims for risk reduction, plus is an action performed under a ruler law (Law 1523/ 2012 from Colombia), also is a planning tool focused on the implementation for action knowledge processes, reduction an disaster management, aims for a culture of disaster prevention in society as well as the joint actions aimed at institutional strengthening in the emergency preparation (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2006). 4. Conclusions For more than twenty (20) years the municipality has been vulnerable to risk scenarios mainly by landslides and floods and the actions that has been make are related to mitigate the risk but not prevent, where 80% of the current population is vulnerable to the 3 risk scenarios analyzed. Unfortunately Colombia does not have a standard methodology focused in prioritize natural risk scenarios; however with the implementation of the methodology of SEI SRE it was determined that the landslide risk scenario was the most critical, followed by floods and finally earthquakes. e main causes in the risk scenarios by landslides and floods were by anthropic activities like deforestation for agriculture and livestock, the lack of population and building in high-risk areas, bimodal regime rainfall in the region and soil properties. In the case of earthquakes, the causes were mainly due to active faults present in the town, as well as soil properties which favor the intensity of these ones. According with cost-benefit analysis, it was determined that the implementation of the programs and actions formulated in the natural risk management plan represented investments near of the ones that have been implemented during the last years focused in mitigate the risk, so investing in such actions will bring not only a reduction in the vulnerability of the population but will tend to a process of sustainable development in the municipality.

178 178 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 With respect to the multi-criteria evaluation, it defined that the main limitation of the methodology MP- DRM lies in the way how to prioritize risk scenarios, also experts believe that the way how information is structured in characterization of risk scenarios was its main benefit. Moreover experts consider adapting various methodologies and so ware, to provide a be er support in the preparation of documents for the adoption of policies associated to risk management, but they said that should still be cautious when adapting methodologies. References National Geographic (2013) Cambio climático, sequías e inundaciones. [En línea]. Disponible en:. [Accesado el día 28 de Noviembre de 2013] Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNDU) (2010) El cambio climático en Colombia y en el sistema de las Naciones Unidas, 8 Pág., Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo (PNDU), Bogotá D.C. Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama (2000). Documento técnico del esquema de ordenamiento territorial municipio de San Antonio del Tequendama, 55 Pág., Concejo municipal San Antonio del Tequendama, San Antonio del Tequendama, Cundinamarca. Registro Único de Damnificados (RUD) (2012) Registro de Damnificados Sistema de información para el registro único de damnificados, 10 Pág., Bogotá D.C. Concejo municipal de San Antonio del Tequendama (2012) Plan de desarrollo San Antonio del Tequendama, 78 Pág., Concejo territorial de planeación, San Antonio del Tequendama, Cundinamarca. Corporación Autónoma Regional de Cundinamarca (CAR) (1991) Plan de desarrollo Subregional, provincia del Tequendama, municipios de San Antonio del Tequendama, El Colegio, Tena, Viotá, 230 Pág., CAR, Bogotá D.C. Ingeniería y Geotecnia Ltda Ingenieros Consultores (1995) Asesoría geotécnica para el estudio y tratamiento de fenómenos de inestabilidad en la región de San Antonio del Tequendama, 80 Pág., CAR, Bogotá D.C. Ministerio de Interior y de Justicia: Dirección de Gestión del Riesgo (2012) Guía Municipal para la Gestión del Riesgo, 150 Pág., Sistema Nacional para la Prevención y Atención de Desastres, Bogotá D.C. Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres (2012) Formulación del plan municipal de gestión del riesgo, 47 Pág., Unidad Nacional para la Gestión del Riesgo de Desastres, Bogotá D.C. Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi (IGAC) (1993) Guía Metodológica para la formulación del Plan de Ordenamiento Territorial, 76 Pág., IGAC, Bogotá D.C. Department of Energy ality Managers (2000), So ware Risk Management a practical guide, 31 Pág, Department of Energy ality Managers, Maryland, United States. Stern Robert, Arias José Carlos, (2011) Review of risk management methods, 20 Pág., Business Intelligence Journal N 59, Maryland, United States. Consorcio de Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales (ERN) América Latina: Consultores en Riesgo, desastres y cambio climático (2011) Metodología de modelación probabilística de riesgos naturales, 11 Pág., ERN, Bogotá D.C, Colombia. Consultores, INGETEC Subestación Paraíso (2013) Infraestructura del municipio de San Antonio del Tequendama, 1 Pág., INGETEC, Bogotá D.C. PALISADE Corporation (2013) Simulación Monte Carlo. [En línea]. Disponible en:. [Accesado el día 20 de Febrero de 2014]. J. E. Henao Sarmiento (2009) Introducción al manejo de cuencas hidrográficas, 396 Pág., Bogotá D.C: Universidad Santo Tomás. Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi (IGAC) (2000) Estudio general de suelos y zonificación de tierras del Departamento de Cundinamarca, 617 Pág., IGAC, Bogotá D.C. Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP) (2005) Guía ambiental para evitar, corregir y compensar los impactos de las acciones de reducción y prevención de riesgos en el nivel municipal, 106 Pág., DNP, Bogotá D.C. Chow Ven Te, Maidment R. David, Mays W. Larry (1994) Hidrología Aplicada, 299 Pág., McGRAW-HILL. Texas, Estados Unidos. Planeación Ecológica Ltda- Ecoforest Ltda. (2012) Elaboración del Diagnóstico, Prospectiva y Formulación de la Cuenca Hidrográfica del río Bogotá Subcuenca del rio Apulo, 473 Pág., CAR, Bogotá D.C. Wilches Chaux Gustavo (1998) Auge, Caída y Levantada de Felipe Pinillo, Mecánico y Soldador o Yo voy a correr el riesgo, 105 Pág., LA RED, Bogotá, Colombia. Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP) (2010) Plan Nacional de Desarrollo Prosperidad para todos, 51 Pág., Departamento Nacional de Planeación, Bogotá D.C. Departamento Administrativo de la Presidencia de la República (2013) Decreto 1974 de 2013, 17 Pág., Departamento Administrativo de la Presidencia de la República Bogotá D.C. European Union (2005) Análisis multicriterio, [En línea]. Disponible en:.[accesado el día 18 de Septiembre de 2013]. Bana A. Carlos, De Corte Jean Marie, Vansnick Jean Claude (2005) M- MACBETH, 41 Pág., Department of Operational Research, London School of Economics, London. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (2006) Hyogo Framework for Action , 25 Pág, ISDR Hyogo, Japan.

179 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Citation Montién Tique, W. F., and Peña Guzmán, C. A. (2015): Formulation of a Natural Risk Management Plan to San Antonio Del Tequendama, Cundinamarca - Colombia. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

180 180 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Inclusive risk management: a comprehensive approa towards a safer world for everyone KAISER, Carlos a, BROSSARD, Loreto b and KAPP-SCHWOERER, Maren c a ONG Inclusiva, Chile carlos.kaiser@onginclusiva.com b ONG Inclusiva, Chile loreto.brossard@onginclusiva.com c Munich Re Foundation, Germany mkapp-schwoerer@munichre-foundation.org Abstract In this paper the need for inclusive risk management taking into account disability is identified. First, it is shown how disability can become a part of disaster risk management. Namely, barriers need to be reduced or eliminated and the participation of people with disabilities in risk management has to be fostered. Moreover, the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health is presented as a standard language and framework which is useful to design coherent disability-related social policy. In a second step, the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix is presented as a useful tool to identify the inclusivity of an environment. Lastly, the need of inclusive emergency management standards is illustrated. It is concluded that an explicit inclusion of disability into risk management plans, laws and agreements such as the Post-2015 Framework for Risk Reduction is needed. Keywords inclusion, disabilities, risk reduction, risk management 1. Introduction e Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) will expire at the end of erefore, great efforts are made in order to adopt a Post-2015 Framework for Risk Reduction at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in 2015 in Japan (cp. UNISDR, 2012). e development of a Post-2015 Framework allows for improvements of the current risk reduction targets and standards. is opportunity has to be realized. One of the issues that has to be addressed is the inclusiveness of risk management, particularly with regard to people with disabilities. When disasters hit it is of vital importance that the evacuation measures drawn up by emergency response planning are effective and actually reach all the people at risk (Munich Re Foundation, 2014, p. 24). But according to CBM persons with disabilities are o en overlooked throughout disaster risk management (CBM, 2013, p. 6). ey are traditionally neither asked to help nor included when addressing emergencies and disasters. However, those persons are o en more exposed during conflict and displacement (cp. Women s Refugee Commission, 2008). erefore, they belong to the most vulnerable that are at the greatest risk (Munich Re Foundation, 2014, p. 24). Nevertheless, depending on the severity of their impairment, they have a large number of skills and talents to offer to their community that are often neglected (Women s Refugee Commission, 2008, p. 7). According to the World Health Organization about 15 per cent of all people worldwide have disabilities (WHO, 2011, p. 27). As a consequence, if disability is not accounted for in disaster risk management (DRM), a major factor is omi ed. e information presented in this paper is based on existing research and, most importantly, the author s own experiences gained during his work for ONG Inclusiva, an organization based in the Chilean town Peñaflor. e organization s project Peñaflor Inclusive Safe Community: Resilience for Everyone aims at improving the inclusion of people with disability in DRM by reducing and eliminating barriers in the town (Barthelt, 2014). Experience shows that people with disabilities must not only be addressed as beneficiaries, but also be trusted as valuable contributors and allies when facing risk situations. Moreover, in order for inclusive risk management to be successive, a holistic approach, as well as a vision shared by all people involved is necessary.

181 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Taking into Account Disability as Part of Disaster Risk Management 2.1. Disability as an important factor determining the outcomes of risk situations Disasters happen in very different contexts. Due to various variables, the severity of the outcomes of similar disasters of the same magnitude may vary strongly. Among the key variables are geography, culture, demography, architecture, administrative borders and political system. Since about 15 per cent of the population is estimated to have disabilities, the inclusiveness of DRM with regard to persons with disabilities is an important variable too, that is o en omi ed. erefore, disability has to be taken into account as part of DRM in order to reduce the severity of the outcomes of disasters. Next to its significance with regard to the outcomes of disasters, dealing with disability as part of DRM can also be seen as a moral duty. Moreover, in Article 11 of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disability, an obligation for inclusive risk management is stated: States shall take, in accordance with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law, all necessary measures to ensure the protection and safety of persons with disabilities in situations of risk, including situations of armed conflict, humanitarian emergencies and the occurrence of natural disasters (UN, 2006, p. 10). e challenge is to reduce and eliminate barriers that people with disabilities face in risk situations, taking into account local specifics (BMZ, 2013, p. 9). e barriers faced concern the environment of an individual. ere are, for instance, architectonical, cultural and technological barriers. Policy-making modifies the environment and, therefore, may lower the barriers. e idea is, ideally, to reach inclusivity by not only to eliminating barriers, but also creating facilitators that make the participation of people with disabilities possible (BMZ, 2013, p. 5 6) e ICF as a useful framework when dealing with inclusive risk management e International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) provides a standard language and framework for the description of health and health-related states (WHO, 2002, p. 2). erefore it is a scientific tool for consistent, internationally comparable information about the experience of health and disability (WHO, 2002, p. 5). Figure 1: Model of disability that is the basis for the ICF (WHO, 2002, p. 9) e model of disability that is the basis for ICF can be seen in figure 1. It can be called a biopsychosocial model since it provides a synthesis of the medical and the social model of disability. As a consequence, disability is seen both as a feature of a person (Personal Factors) and the features of the overall context the person lives in (Environmental Factors) (WHO, 2002, p. 8 10). Moreover the model provides a coherent view of three different perspectives on health: a biological perspective (Body, Functions and Structures), an individual perspective (Activities) and a social perspective (Participation) (WHO, 2002, p. 9). In the context of inclusive DRM the ICF is very useful. Firstly, it provides a standard language and framework for the description of health and health-related states. Secondly, it can provide the framework for comprehensive and coherent disability-related social policy. Since it takes into account environmental factors, it makes the identification of environmental barriers and facilitators for both capacity and performance of actions and tasks possible. erefore, with the help of the ICF it may be possible to create instruments that assess environments in terms of their facilitation or barrier-creation for different kinds and levels of disabilities (WHO, 2002, p. 8). is implies that the ICF may provide the basis for an effective reduction of the barriers faced by people with different forms of disabilities in risk situations. 3. Identifying the Inclusivity of an Environment - the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix 3.1. Features of the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix At the core of the work of ONG Inclusiva is the design of a system of integrated territorial management (ITM), an approach to emergency management that takes into account all the needs of people with disability and the features of each area (Kaiser, Vásquez & Vásquez, 2013). e idea is to make all public goods and services available for people with disability, too. In this context, the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix (IICM) is a method created by ONG Inclusiva and designed to measure the level of inclusivity of an environment, a technology or a system. As such it is useful when designing or evaluating emergency plans and can be used during the whole project cycle in

182 182 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 Entity Division/Unit Project Stage Territory Users Table 1: e IICM using the example of the accessibility of the ONEMI (own design) Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix National Emergency Office (ONEMI), Republic of Chile Central office (National Level) ONEMI- Inclusiva NGO First stage Chilean capital city, Santiago Visitors Inclusion Indicators Dimension Variables Scale Notes Dimension 1: accessibility of the building Autonomy X Dignity X Security X reasonable time of usage X Average Score 2 points Dimension 2: accessibility of the building Autonomy X during an emergency evacuation Dignity X Security X reasonable time of usage X Average Score Average Total Score 3,5 points 2,75 points e building has two entrances facing the same street one has stairs that go down and the second one has a ramp that also goes down. Both entrances lead to a central hall. e ramp is well built consistent with correspondent regulations. However, the entrance with the ramp is usually closed and in order for it to open, a person with disabilities has to ring a bell and wait until someone answers from a phone and then sends assistance. On a normal day this procedure represents a moderate trouble, but in an emergency it can cost lives. Autonomy is heavily decreased because of the need of third parties intervention. e solution is as simple as to keep the entrance with the ramp open. is produces neither cost, nor side effects order to make inclusive emergency management possible. e overall goal is to adapt all the instruments and actions planned to the needs of persons with different disabilities. An IICM using the example of the accessibility of the ONEMI can be seen in table 1. e indicators employed in an IICM are based on the environmental factors that influence the functionality of a person, suggested by the ICF. erefore, the matrix measures the effect of barriers and facilitators on the level of inclusion of a person. e level of inclusion of each dimension of a project is measured with the help of four variables: 1. Autonomy: the ability of a person to perform an action or activity without the need of third parties intervention 2. Dignity: the respect with which each person is approached and whether people are faced with situations that make them feel uncomfortable 3. Security: the presence of protective factors (physical and/or social) that prevent or decrease the risk of accidents and/or loss of functionality 4. Reasonable time of usage: reasonable time the execution and/or use of a space, service or technology needs For each of the variables the level of inclusion is determined with a scale ranging from 0 to 4. e explanation of the scale can be seen in table 2. Table 2: Explanation of the scale used in the IICM Explanation of the scale used in the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix 0 No restriction 1 Li le restriction 2 Restrictions that make people with disabilities need moderate help 3 Restrictions that make people with disabilities need heavy help 4 Heavy restrictions that make participation for people with disabilities (almost) impossible 3.2. ONG Inclusiva s field experiences with the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix ONG Inclusiva cooperates with the Chilean government authorities, foreign governments, local governments, NGOs and the private sector. Our experience combined with the results of the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix shows that most problems detected are caused by three cultural issues. Firstly, people with disabilities are not truly considered as equals. As a consequence, authorities are aware of accessibility problems but these problems are not part of their top priorities. Secondly, in many places there would be accessible spaces, however, those are blocked. For instance, procedures may be made in

183 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March a fashion that reduces the access to services. e closed ramp in the central office of ONEMI is a very good example. irdly, the disability variable is not o en taken into account during the designing stage of some technologies, procedures and spaces making future adaptations difficult and, therefore, o en not accurate. 4. e Need of Inclusive Emergency Management Standards On the basis of the definition of a standard by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), a standard of inclusive emergency management can be defined as a document that provides requirements, specifications, guidelines or characteristics that can be used consistently to ensure that materials, products, processes and services are fit for the purpose of generating a comprehensive inclusive emergency management system easy to duplicate (cp. ISO, n.d.). Standards for inclusive emergency management are needed in order to have a standardized language. Such a language would help to detect open tasks, as well as to create and improve protocols and procedures at the local, national and international level. For instance, the standards could function as a basis for the dialogue about the Post-2015 Framework for Risk Reduction. As a result, the quality of processes and outcomes of emergency management could be assured. Moreover, standards for inclusive emergency management defined should contemplate the four elements autonomy, dignity, security and reasonable time of usage as used in the Inclusive Index Calculation Matrix. is would ensure a high level of inclusivity set by the standard. In order to make RDM more inclusive on an international level, standards for inclusive emergency management would have to be present as a key factor in every emergency management process at all five stages of the preparedness cycle (overview of the different stages in figure 2). Before being able to do so, the needs of people with disabilities living in risk zones have to be identified. 5. Conclusion Inclusive disaster risk management taking into account the needs of people with disabilities is needed in order to make the world a safer place for everyone. e barriers faced by people with disabilities in risk situations have to be decreased so that those people are less vulnerable in risk situations. is can only be reached if there are joint and coordinated actions at all levels and if there is a constructive dialogue between all the disciplines involved in DRM. Architects, electricians, politicians, teachers, just to name a few, have to work hand in hand. Also, people with disabilities have to be actively involved. Not only the output, but also the input and the process of DRM have to be inclusive. Next to the constructive dialogue between the diverse disciplines a more systemized approach to processes in DRM is needed in order to reach a barrier-free risk management. e scientific framework provided by ICF offers a standard language which is needed to define clear standards of inclusive emergency management. ose would be necessary to achieve a truly inclusive Post 2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. References Barthelt, C. (2014). e 2014 RISK Award goes to ONG Inclusiva, Chile. Retrieved from BMZ (2013). Disaster Risk Management for All. e inclusion of children, elderly and persons with disabilities. Bonn & Berlin: BMZ. CBM (2013). Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Management. Voices from the Field & Good Practices. Retrieved from FEMA (2014). National Preparedness Cycle. Retrieved from ISO (n.d.). Standards. What is a standard? Retrieved from Kaiser, C.; Vásquez, A. & Vásquez, D. (2013). Manual de gestión inclusiva de emergencias: derechos humanos de las personas con discapacidad durante emergencias. Retrieved from. Munich Re Foundation (2014). Munich Re Foundation. From Knowledge to Action Report. Retrieved from. Figure 2: Preparedness cycle (FEMA, 2014) UN (2006). Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and Optional Protocol. Retrieved from

184 184 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 UNISDR (2012). Towards a Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Retrieved. WHO (2002). Towards a Common Language for Functioning, Disability and Health. WHO/EIP/GPE/CAS/01.0. Retrieved from. WHO (2011). World Report on Disability Geneva: WHO Press. Women s Refugee Commission (2008). Disabilities Among Refugees and Conflict-Affected Populations. Retrieved from Citation Kaiser, C., Brossard, L. and Kapp-Schwoerer, M. (2015): Inclusive risk management: a comprehensive approach towards a safer world for everyone. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

185 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Towards novel community-based collaborative disaster management approa es in the new information environment: an NGO perspective VAN DEN HOMBERG, M. J.C. a,b NEEF, R.M. b a Business Unit Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Response, Cordaid, e Hague, e Netherlands, marc.van.den.homberg@cordaid.nl b Networked Organizations Department, TNO, e Hague, e Netherlands, marc.vandenhomberg@tno.nl, martijn.neef@tno.nl Abstract Large-scale natural and man-made disasters are complex events involving many stakeholders. Despite the structures the national and international humanitarian systems provide, still many collaboration and information gaps between stakeholders, levels of operations and phases in the disaster management cycle occur. In the recovery phase, communities are insufficiently involved and comprehensive knowledge about the affected environment is missing leading to mismatches between efforts of the different actors and the community needs and prolonged recovery trajectories at higher costs. e rapidly changing and new information environment consisting of mobile services, social media, social networks, crowdsourcing and online communities offers new opportunities to engage with communities but also new challenges to stay abreast of all that s communicated digitally. New collaborative approaches will be required to diminish these gaps. e EU funded COBACORE develops a collaborative platform that facilitates the interaction between members of the professional, affected and responding communities. It helps to register needs, capacities, activities and acquire situational information by the whole, and provides facilities to obtain be er matching of needs and capacities. Adoption and ownership by communities is essential and should be investigated for example by building and piloting a localized version of the platform. Such a localized platform should enable both digital and non-digital ways of interaction given that many disaster affected communities live in resource-poor environments. e platform can be used as well as a cooperative development game for the responding community and professionals to improve their cooperation and coordination skills. Although NGOs are not social computing organizations, it is recommended to expedite developing a basic social computing understanding (and possibly capability) in-house so that digital technologies can be incorporated into relief and recovery activities more easily. Keywords disaster recovery, new information environment, community-based, collaboration gaps 1. Introduction Large-scale natural and man-made disasters are complex events affecting many societal, political, economic and environmental processes. Rebuilding a disaster-affected area and community to a safe and stable state in which it can regain its societal and economic livelihood (Crutchfield, 2013) is complex, let alone building back be er as is o en the credo. Many stakeholders are involved and include local communities, sometimes both responding and affected at the same time, local professionals (government, private sector, national and local NGOs) and the international community (UN, international NGOs (in- GOs), donors, the military, diplomats). ese stakeholders can select from a wide range of Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, and Infrastructure related disaster management activities with o en varying intentions and influence. To illustrate the wide spectrum, interventions can range from purely humanitarian response activities aimed at relieving human suffering to deliberate economic shock doctrines a er disasters to serve external economic interests (Klein, 2008). Stakeholders are organized in principle by the government; they have the mandate and implement disaster laws, structures and procedures. In case of major disasters, such as level 3 disasters as declared by the Inter-Agency Standing Commi ee (IASC), the international humanitarian system with the cluster system comes into play with obviously still an im-

186 186 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 portant role for the government. Although both organizational structures are usually well-defined, in the execution still many flaws occur. First of all, a lack of leadership. On the one hand the -especially local- government has limited capacity and experience, does not invest much in preparedness and is as a consequence not able to take leadership. On the other hand clusters are dominated by the international NGOs, hampering the participation of local NGOs and causing sometimes insufficient information on local capacities to reach the clusters. Also sharing information between clusters is a challenge (van den Homberg, 2014). Furthermore, despite joint assessments such as the Multi-Cluster/Sector Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA), comprehensive knowledge about the affected environment is still very hard to obtain. Communities are insufficiently involved whereas they should be considered as the most important stakeholders. Research has shown that they save most of the lives in the response phase (Bankoff, 2004) and that they also play a key role in recovery. If recovery is driven only by the responding external organizations, community resilience is weakened and recovery o en fails ( arantelli, 1999). is is also in line with the trend amongst western policy makers to focus on increasing citizen participation. e collaboration and information gaps between stakeholders, levels of operations and phases in the disaster management cycle as described above lead to mismatches between recovery efforts of the different actors and community needs and as a consequence- to prolonged recovery trajectories at higher costs. 2. e NGO Perspective on Collaboration with Communities Nearly all NGOs place affected communities at the heart of both their developmental and relief aid activities through their guiding principles and values. For example, the International Federation of the Red Cross has Humanity as their leading principle: the need to act in order to prevent and alleviate human suffering. Similarly, Caritas Internationalis and its 162 member organizations have Solidarity as a key principle, whereby the response to an emergency is an expression of solidarity with the people affected by a disaster (Caritas Internationalis, 2007). Caritas Internationalis has an additional principle that guides the interaction with communities, namely Subsidiarity. People have the right to participate in decisions that affect their lives and decisions should be made by the people closest to and most affected by the issues and concerns of the community. It means returning the rightful ownership of projects and development processes to local communities. How can the professional NGO community implement these guiding principles in especially the response and recovery phase? To this end, nearly all ingos work by definition with local partner organizations such as the IFRC with the national society and the Caritas member organizations with the ecclesial network in the affected region. ese capillary structures can be used to gain unique knowledge of and access to grass-root communities affected by the emergency. Furthermore, through these local partner organizations, ingos can gain access to community buildings (such as schools and Church buildings), which can be used to provide essential emergency services to victims of a disaster and to personnel with considerable experience of working with grass-root communities such as Red Cross volunteers and Church representatives (varying from bishops, priests, religious sisters and brothers, missionaries up to lay people). However, reaching an optimal distribution of the work over the international, national and local NGOs has proven to be quite a challenge. First of all, it is difficult to reach proper situational awareness of what the needs and capacities are. e IFRC estimates that in some cases only 10% of the affected communities are reached in assessments. In doing assessments, most NGOs strive for compliance with the Sphere standards and follow principle two of the IFRC Code of Conduct (which is also the Code of Conduct for Sphere): Wherever possible, we will base the provision of relief aid upon a thorough assessment of the needs of the disaster victims and the local capacities already in place to meet those needs. (Sphere, 2011: 370). e Caritas Internationalis emergency toolkit (Caritas Internationalis, 2007: 21) lists that first actions a er a disaster include a check on: does the information suggest that local support (community and/or government and church) is sufficient to respond? Obviously for major disasters this is usually not the case. Second of all, operational ingos are typically in delivery mode. Lives and livelihoods are at stake and there is pressure of the donors and the media, so the pressure is on for ingos to show that they are active and providing relief. O en, local partners have limited capacities and therefore international organizations setup their own operations in parallel (as is reflected in how funding is allocated). Figure 1: Example of the Participatory Vulnerability and Capability Approach in India: the risk map e challenges described above results in the objective of our research: to explore which novel information gathering and collaboration approaches enable international, national and local NGOs to be er utilize their capacities, to reach be er accountability both up- (towards donors)

187 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March and downwards (towards communities) and to optimize their interdependent efforts by building on the community as an important source of information. 3. Collaborative Approa es in the New Information Environment e current information gathering and collaboration approaches of NGOs in disaster management center around participatory approaches such as Participatory Vulnerability and Capability Analysis (PVCA) in the preparedness phase (resulting in for example community risk maps, see Figure 1), mixed methods for monitoring and evaluation in the response and recovery phase (both up- and downward accountability (including information sharing with communities and complaint mechanisms)), and cocreating community-based or managed recovery strategies linking for example recovery to mitigation (how to build back be er so that a next disaster will not affect a now collapsed house). Furthermore NGOs contribute to or make use of the earlier mentioned MIRA in the response phase or Post Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA) in the recovery phase. e PDNA is a government-led exercise with the support of the EU, the UN system and the World Bank, bringing together national and international stakeholders to align recovery efforts in a coordinated way (UNDP Post Disaster Needs Assessment, 2014). ese collaborative approaches will however have to adapt continuously to a rapidly changing information environment. e World Bank report Maximizing mobile (World Bank, 2012) shows the tremendous growth of mobile telephony in developing countries and the evolution towards data-based services. Furthermore, usage of social media, social networks, crowdsourcing and online communities increases. On the one hand this can aggravate the challenge since for example more and more spontaneous but not necessarily skilled volunteers will be activated, lower entry barriers for new organizations get created thereby increasing competition and misinformation gets spread through these very same digital opportunities. On the other hand it offers opportunities to facilitate the collaboration challenge, for example tagging of social media by volunteer technology communities (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, 2014) can help NGOs to improve their needs assessment of the affected community and information can be disseminated more easily using mobile data-based services or online platforms between organizations and with communities. ere are many examples of intra-organizational platforms (such as from Oxfam, CARE, Caritas Internationalis and World Vision), but also inter-organizational and global platforms, all-purpose, all-hazard, exist such as DisasterAWARE from the Pacific Disaster Center, the Humanitarian Early Warning System from IASC and Humanitarian Response from UN OCHA. ere are also bo om-up initiated community managed platforms such as Ushahidi making use of open data. Lastly, different forms of preparation exist for professionals and volunteers in order to acquire not only technical skills but also the so skills to cooperate and coordinate individual activities towards a collective effort (Di Loreto, 2012). One can think of exercises, trainings and (serious) games such as mock drills of community volunteer disaster management commi ees at community level or emergency management exercises of professional responders at regional or state level. What is however missing is both a platform and game approach that integrates the different intra- and inter-organizational levels and that includes the community perspective. 4. e COBACORE Project: An Example Resear Project A good example of the type of innovation suggested in the previous chapter is the COBACORE (Community-Based Comprehensive Recovery - ) project. e EU-funded COBACORE research project aims to address collaboration challenges between communities that exist in the various phases of disaster management. e COBACORE project groups actors in disaster management into three main groups, as can be seen in Figure 2. e affected community are the people directly and indirectly adversely affected by a crisis or disaster and in need of urgent (humanitarian) assistance. e responding community consists of local or outside community members which support in relief or recovery but are not trained in crisis response. e responding professionals are part of the professional community in the field of crisis response and recovery, such as national and local governments, NGOs and national crisis coordination centers e COBACORE project groups actors in disaster management into three main groups, as can be seen in Figure 2. Figure 2: e three main groups of actors in disaster recovery 4.1. e COBACORE project e affected community are the people directly and indirectly adversely affected by a crisis or disaster and in need of urgent (humanitarian) assistance. e responding community consists of local or outside community

188 188 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 members which support in relief or recovery but are not trained in crisis response. e responding professionals are part of the professional community in the field of crisis response and recovery, such as national and local governments, NGOs and national crisis coordination centers. Actors will o en belong to multiple communities. Professional organizations in the affected area will be affected in their capacities, and therefore may share needs with local affected communities. Local communities and businesses will usually be the first line of support a er a disaster, and thus will also belong to both the affected and responding community groups. One could say that the intersection of both groups is a resilient community one that is capable of tending to its own needs. Another interesting overlap is that between the professionals and the responding community. At the intersection of these groups, we can situate trained volunteers, willing and able civilians that have had a certain degree of training by professionals and thus can provide established services to the recovery process. Based on an analysis of recent cases of natural and technological disasters (COBACORE, 2014), we found that there are three main types of collaboration issues that exists between the three communities: (1) hampered information exchange between the professional community and the affected community, (2) collaboration gaps between the professional community and the responding community and (3) inefficiencies in needs and capacity matching between the affected and responding communities. ese issues form the main drivers of innovation in the project, and steer the development of novel collaboration principles and supporting technologies. e main instrument of the COBACORE project is a collaborative platform that facilitates the interaction between members of the professional, affected and responding communities (e.g. between affected citizens, professional organizations and volunteer groups). e COBA- CORE platform helps to collate baseline information with current information about needs, capacities and activities, and offers options to learn which parties are active on various aspects of disaster recovery. By providing tailored interfaces for each type of community, but drawing on the same information base, the platform helps to achieve a higher level of coordination and a be er matching of needs and capacities. e platform provides three main functions that directly answer the aforementioned key issues: (1) enhance the information exchange between the professional and the affected community, (2) facilitate the collaboration between the professional and the responding community and (3) improve needs and capacity matching between the affected and the responding community. e platform provides various features to its users that help to fulfil the main functions. e COBACORE project relies heavily on stakeholder engagement to uncover valuable features, and employs an incremental development process where new features are added a er consultation with end users. e core set of features consists of ten features: facilities to register (a) actors, (b) needs, (c) capacities and (d) activities; options to match needs with capacities (e); option to obtain an overview of ( ) needs and capacities, (g) actors and their activities and (h) the baseline situation; basic recovery monitoring views (i); and information exchange options (j). Needs and capacities are categorized via an expressive category and type system. A category is one of twelve main societal domains that play a role in disaster recovery, such as transport, health or education. A type is the sort of thing that is being sought or offered, where we distinguish three types: service or skill, information and asset (tangible or intangible). e combination of one or more categories with a type gives a simple yet expressive way to characterize needs, capacities, and activities. e COBACORE platform is implemented as a web service and is accessible through laptop or mobile device for each of the user groups: professionals, responding community and affected community. Figure 3 shows a screenshot of the current state of the platform. Figure 3: e COBACORE platform in its core feature state.

189 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March e COBACORE Gaming Approach We developed a table-top turn-based simulation to first of all- evaluate the platform and secondly- to be used as a cooperative development game for the responding communities and professionals. Goals of the game are such that participants are required to assess needs and match capacities with these needs. e game consists of goals for each user group, workflows and actions, user group profiles and the evolving scenario (a disaster that had struck the city of Ro erdam/belfast). Central to the evaluation is the comparison between a situation where user groups interact with the platform and a situation in which they employ state-of-the-art social media tools. In both conditions, user groups have the task to carry out needs assessment activities within a short duration scenario (typically one to three hours). Figure 4 shows the COBA-game setup, where the different user groups are place in different rooms. full alignment with operational practices. At the end of the project, the COBAgame will be held in a second iteration with the platform in its final stage and in a more operational setup with participation of multiple professional and volunteers groups in the German-Dutch border area Project Ambitions e COBACORE project does not have the objective to build an operational product, but rather strives to develop a foundation from which useful novel applications and approaches can be developed. Because of the differences in disaster management across the world, and because of the differences in societal capabilities and preferences between countries, it seems hard to envision an platform shape form that suites each and every disaster event. So, therefore the COBACORE platform foundation needs to be translated to suit local characteristics and suit the operational demands of active responding NGOs. To this end, the project will work with NGOs and national response organizations to build localized versions of the platform. Additionally, the gaming approach will be promoted as a valuable asset to training programs of response organizations. 5. Discussions and Conclusions Figure 4: e COBA-game set-up First, affected communities will be introduced into the scenario: the general crisis situation, their individual needs and how needs can be identified and communicated on a community level in the COBA-game. is will be introduced step-by-step, particularly because formulating community needs requires coordination via an appointed spokesperson. e community will have to self-organize this process of how to articulate needs on a community level. e self-organization has to be monitored and facilitated however, since experience learns that otherwise one gets the needs from the community leadership and not from the marginalized people in the community. e individual and communal needs will then be fed into the COBACORE platform by the users. erea er, the system will give instructions on which available capacities are present in the vicinity of the person that posted the need. e system will give instructions based on 1) physical proximity and 2) overlap in capacity and need via a standard categorization of needs and capacities from the COBACORE database. In June 2014, the above game was held in Ro erdam, e Netherlands over the course of two days, with a participation of more than 40 volunteers from the Dutch Red Cross and representatives from Dutch Safety Regions. is experiment had a non-fielded setup, and thus lacked Large scale natural and man-made disasters require system-wide mobilization and sustained, concerted efforts by multiple stakeholders. All too o en we see however collaboration gaps between stakeholders, levels of operations and different phases in the disaster management cycle. Specifically, communities are insufficiently involved and comprehensive knowledge about the affected environment is missing. NGOs have more than most other stakeholders- affected communities at the core of their raison d être and empower communities using participatory approaches for creating vulnerability and capability awareness and shared action plans for increased resilience and preparedness. Furthermore, they have usually well-organized access to communities through strong linkages to grass-roots organizations. Cordaid has for example utilized in the response to the Typhoon Haiyan the Philippines Caritas member organization NASSA. e rapidly changing and new information environment consisting of mobile services, social media, social networks, crowdsourcing and online communities offers new opportunities to engage with communities but also new challenges to stay abreast of all that s communicated digitally. New collaborative approaches will be required to make sure collaboration gaps are being closed. e EU-funded COBACORE project developed a novel conceptual framework for closing the collaboration gaps between members of the professional, affected and responding communities (e.g. volunteer groups) in terms of issues, functions and features. e framework is translated into a web based platform and table-top simulation. e platform helps to register needs, capacities, activities and acquire situational information by the whole, and provides facilities to obtain be er matching of needs

190 190 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March 2015 and capacities. We emphasize that both the platform and the game consist in fact of a technical, social and sociotechnical layer. e technology is only a part of the solution and crucial for adoption will be the interaction between the platform and the users. e principles behind the COBACORE platform apply to both the developed and developing countries context, since resilience enhancement and risk reduction is a collaborative process by default. Given that many disaster affected communities still live in resource-poor environments, it will be essential for NGOs to develop a hybrid collaborative platform that can combine both digital and non-digital input. Such a platform will enable NGOs to deal with the new information environment, adapt to the growing role of responding communities and take on a clearer coordinating and steering role. Adoption of such a platform should already take place in the preparedness phase. We foresee that the professional community might more easily adopt a COBACORE like platform, as it can for example become part of their training curriculum and daily work, than communities will do. It will be essential to investigate how adoption and ownership by communities can be assured for example by piloting the platform in one of the areas where Cordaid operates. e platform focuses on usage in natural and technological disaster se ings, where it relies on a fairly open and transparent process of collecting and sharing information amongst different stakeholders. However, from , more than 50% of people affected by natural disasters lived in fragile and conflict-affected states (Kellet, 2012). When disasters and conflict collide (Harris, 2013), there will be additional challenges in using a participatory platform, such as the suggested COBACORE platform. e platform could be used by actors with malicious intent (Goolsby, 2013). e matching functionality of the platform will be much more sensitive and delicate in these conflict se ings than in natural disaster se ings. Actors in such se ings include for example unstable governments and armed groups. And the affected community, the people at risk, know usually most about their predicament and have the greatest insight into the threats against them. However, disclosing such information could put them at risk. e new information environment will create tough challenges both for disaster and conflict se ings in terms of privacy, governance, content generation and validity. ese are issues that will need further research. Although NGOs are not social computing organizations (Meier, 2014), it is recommended to expedite developing a basic social computing understanding (and possibly capability) in-house so that digital technologies can be incorporated into relief and recovery activities more easily. We note that development agencies are usually already more ahead with adopting and adapting to these new technologies than relief agencies are. 6. A nowledgements is research was conducted by the COBACORE project (EU Grant Agreement number , ), and supported by Cordaid ( ) and the Disaster Resilience Lab ( ). e authors gratefully acknowledge Inge Leuverink, MA from Cordaid for her valuable contributions. References Bankoff, G.; Frerks, G.; Hilhorst, T. (2004): Mapping vulnerability, Disasters, Development and People, London: Earthscan. Caritas Internationalis (2007), Emergency guidelines: principles, structures and mechanisms and toolkit: URL = (15 October 2014). COBACORE deliverable D1.1, Scope and Requirements (2014): URL =, Scope and Requirements (15 October 2014). Crutchfield, M. (2013): Phases of Disaster Recovery: Emergency Response for the Long Term, URL = (15 October 2014). Di Loreto, N. ; Mora, S. ; Divitini, M. (2012), Collaborative serious games for crisis management : an overview, IEEE 21st International WETICE, 352. Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Volunteer Technology Communities: open development (2014): URL = (15 October 2014). Goolsby, Rebecca (2013), Cybersecurity, crowdsourcing, and social cyber-a ack, Policy memo series, volume 1: URL = (15 October 2014). Harris, K.; Keen, D.; Mitchell, T. (2013) When disasters and conflict collide, Improving links between disaster resilience and conflict prevention: URL = (15 October 2014). Kelle, J.; Sparks, D. (2012), Disaster Risk Reduction: Spending where it should Count: URL = (15 October 2014). Klein, N. (2008): e Shock Doctrine, New York: Henry Holt and Company Inc.

191 GRF Davos Volume 3, Number 1, Special Issue on the 5th IDRC Davos 2014, March Meier, P. (2014): 11th ISCRAM 2014, e Pennsylvania State University, University Park, May 18-21, 2014, keynote speech. UNDP Post disaster needs assessment, URL = (15 October 2014). van den Homberg, M.J.C.; Meesters, K.; van de Walle, B. (2014): Coordination and Information Management in the Haiyan Response: observations from the field, Humanitarian Technology: Science, Systems and Global Impact 2014, HumTech2014, Procedia Engineering 78: arantelli, E. L. (1999): e Disaster Recovery Process: What We Know and Do Not Know from Research. Disaster Research Center Preliminary Papers, Newark: University of Delaware. Sphere Handbook - Humanitarian Charter and Minimum Standards in Humanitarian Response (2011): URL = (15 October 2014). World Bank (2012): Information and Communications for Development 2012: Maximizing Mobile = (15 October 2014). Citation VAN DEN HOMBERG, M. J.C. and NEEF, R.M. (2015): Towards novel community-based collaborative disaster management approaches in the new information environment: an NGO perspective. In: Planet@Risk, 3(1): , Davos: Global Risk Forum GRF Davos.

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