Japan-Mexico Renewed Partnership in the Asia-Pacific

Transcription

1 Japan-Mexico Renewed Partnership in the Asia-Pacific --- Uncertainties and Responses --- Asia-Pacific Economic Integration Seminar JETRO/CEESP Prof. Yorizumi WATANABE Faculty of Policy Management KEIO UNIVERSITY (SFC) Mexico City, June Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 1

2 Uncertainties and Possible Risks (1): Global Trade Issues Failure of the DDA ( Doha Round ) resulting in a weakening of the trade multilateralism embodied in the WTO Proliferation of Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements Lack of Multilateral Trade Rules on New Issues such as Investment, Competition, Government Procurement, State-owned Enterprises (SOEs), Labour, and Environment Missing TPA (Trade Promotion Authority, US Fast-track ) Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 2

3 Uncertainties and Possible Risks (2): Regional Trade Issues in Asia-Pacific East Asia discriminates against East Asia: Protectionism China emerges as a Regional Hegemonic Power China emerges as a Game-changer: e.g. the Solar Panel Dispute with the EU, AIIB New Regionalism : the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO, June 2001) and the Russia-centred Customs Union Russia: Russia, Belarus, Kazkhstan, Jan. 2010) Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 3

4 East Asia discriminates against East Asia: East Asia imports from East Asia with high tariffs for agricultural products and light industry. Tariff Rates in East Asia in 2002 Exporter East Asia EU-25 NAFTA Importer East Asia EU-25 NAFTA Agricultural products Light industry Food & Beverages Textile & Garment Electrical appliances Total Exporter East Asia EU-25 NAFTA Importer East Asia Agricultural products Light industry Food & Beverages Textile & Garment Electrical appliances Total Source: International Trade Centre. Note: East Asia includes ASEAN, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Yorizumi Korea Watanabe, and Keio Source: University WTO Country Profile. Taiwan. Market Access of the WTO Members in 2007 All goods MFN applied tariffs Agricultural goods MFN applied tariffs Non-agricultural goods MFN applied tariffs Final bound Final bound Final bound Brunei Darussalam Cambodia China Hong Kong, China India Indonesia Japan Korea, Republic of Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Taipei, Chinese Thailand Viet Nam

5 SCO( 上 海 協 力 機 構 )の 構 成 国 Members of the SCO 構 成 国 Members 中 国 China カザフスタン Kazakhstan キルギスタン Kyrgystan ウズベキスタン Uzbekistan タジキスタン Tajikistan ロシア Russia 人 口 ( 百 万 人 ) Population(million) 13 億 5 千 万 1,350.0 首 都 Capital 北 Beijing アスタナ Astana 京 5.2 ビシュテック Bishkek 26.5 タシケント Tashkent 7.0 ドゥシャンベ Dushanbe モスクワ Moscow 国 土 面 積 (million km2) Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 5

6 Responses and Challenges in Asia-Pacific De-facto Business-driven Integration through Supply-chain and Production Networks FTA/EPAs to consolidate the merits of the De-facto Integration From Bilateral FTA/EPAs to Wider Regional FTA/EPAs: (ASEAN+1)x5, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6=RCEP, Japan-China-Korea EPA Beyond Regional FTA/EPAs the TPP as an inter-regional FTA Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 6

7 Japan s FTA/EPA Achievement so far Japan-Singapore EPA (in force since ) Japan-Mexico EPA (negotiations started in , in force since ) Japan-Malaysia EPA (in force since ) Japan-Chile EPA (negotiations started in , in force since ) Japan-Thailand EPA (agreement in substance , in force ) Japan-Indonesia EPA (negotiations started in2005.7, in force ) Japan-Brunei EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-ASEAN EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-Philippines EPA (agreement in substance , in force ) Japan-Switzerland EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-Vietnam EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-India EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-Peru EPA (negotiations started in , in force ) Japan-Australia EPA (negotiations started in , agreement in substance in , in force ) Japan-Mongolia EPA (negotiation started in , signed in ) Japan-Korea EPA (negotiations started in , suspended in ) Japan-GCC EPA (negotiations started in ) Japan-Canada EPA (negotiation started in ) Japan-Colombia EPA (negotiation started in ) Japan-EU EPA (negotiation started in ) Prof. Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 7

8 Substance of Japan s EPA Trade in goods Trade in service Investment Market Access SPS/TBT Mutual Recognition Market Access National Treatment MFN Treatment Movement of Natural Person MFN Treatment National Treatment Prohibition of performance requirements Dispute Settlement between state and investor Government Procurement Intellectual Property Competition Improvement Of Business Environment Cooperation Energy and Mineral Resources Vietnam Philippine ASEAN ASEAN Latin America Brunei Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Chile Mexico Europe Switzerland Prof. Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 8

9 Membership and Economic Importance of Regional Integration Frameworks Trade (2012) Billion US $ Trade (2012) Share (%) GDP (2011) Billion US $ GDP (2011) Share (%) JCK FTA 6, , RCEP 10, , TPP 9, , TTIP 15, , World 36, , Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 9

10 Japan-China-Korea: a missing piece of jigsaw Share of Trade (2010) EXPORT (%) Japan China Korea IMPORT (%) Japan China Korea Japan % (No.1) 8.1% (No.3) Japan % (No.1) 4.1% (No.6) China 7.7% (No.3) % (No.4) China 12.7% (No.1) % (No.2) Korea 6.0% (No.3) 25.1% (No.1) Korea 15.1% (No.3) 16.8% (No.1) Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 10

11 Japan s EPA Strategy -- Japan as a Pivotal Centre between TPP &RCEP -- East Asia RCEP ASEAN+6=CEPEA=proposed by Japan(2006) Integration-oriented approach Trade Facilitation/Capacity-building to CLMV, inclusive growth Japan s EPAs already concluded(15) アジア 太 平 洋 自 由 貿 易 圏 FTAAP Pacific Rim TPP NAFTA Latin America Rule-oriented approach High-level Market Access Regulatory Convergence, Harmonization Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 11

12 Japan-Mexico Renewed Partnership Joint Study Group concluded its work Negotiation started on the Officials Level President Fox s State Visit to Tokyo (negotiation broken down) Negotiation resumed ( Compare-notes ) Agreement on Substance reached Agreement signed (PM Koizumi & President Fox, Mexico City) Coming-into-effect of the Agreement Coming-into-effect of the Protocol for Improved Market Access Negotiation for Amendment started Agreement reached on Amendment of the Agreement Signature on the Amended Agreement Coming-into-force of the Amended Agreement Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 12

13 Increase in Bilateral Trade between Japan and Mexico ( ) Two-way Trade: JPY 785 billion (2004) JPY 1,358 billion (2013) Mexico Japan Pork: 32,712 t (2004) 57,379 t (2013) Beef: 1,772 t (2004) 14,272 t (2013) Japan Mexico Automobile: JPY 82.7billion (2004) JPY135.3 billion (2013) Auto Parts: JPY 58.3 billion (2004) JPY billion (2013) Self-declaration for Certification in Rules-of-Origin Improvement of Business Environment Government Procurement Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 13

14 Concluding Remarks: Increasing Coherence Japan s FTA Policy to Multilateralise Regionalism TPP(Asia-Pacific): an ultimate FTA with the ultimate partner; i.e. USA RCEP(East Asia): Providing a Legal Framework to Secure de-facto Business-driven Integration Japan-China-Korea FTA: missing parts of the jigsaw puzzle Japan-EU FTA: towards an Asia-Europe partnership Joint Efforts to Multilateralize the Preferential Deals with a view to Strengthening the WTO Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 14

15 EU ASEM 日 EUEPA Trans-Atlantic TTIP East Asia ASEAN+3(JCK) +India+Australia NZ RCEP APEC TPP NAFTA USA Canada Mexico CAFTA MERCOSUR Allianza del Pacifico Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 15

16 Multilateralizing Mega-FTAs:Three Reasons Systemic Reasons: from non-binding cooperation to fully-binding high level FTAs Functional Reasons: from regional production network to global value chains by making new rules on investment, competition, government procurement etc. Institutional Reasons: gather like-minded countries to shape a critical mass Prof. Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 16

17 Multilateralizing Regionalism Convergence of Liberalization Efforts in 3 Mega FTAs, i.e. TPP, TTIP, and the Japan-EU EPA A New Momentum to reinforce the Trade Multilateralism embodied in the WTO Japan and the Mexico/US should demonstrate leadership in TPP and beyond Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 17

18 Thank you for Your Attention --- Free Trade for a Better Future --- Yorizumi Watanabe, Keio University 18