Co r a l Re e f s. o f t h e Wo r l d: Ed i t e d b y Cl i v e Wi l k i n s o n

Transcription

1 Status of Co r a l Re e f s o f t h e Wo r l d: 2008 Ed i t e d b y Cl i v e Wi l k i n s o n

2 Dedication: This book is dedicated to all those people who are working to conserve the coral reefs of the world, either through doing the monitoring or providing the logistical and financial support we thank them for their efforts. Special thanks to those people who wrote and edited these chapters. It is also dedicated to the International Coral Reef Initiative and partners, especially the Government of the United States operating through the US Coral Reef Task Force for support for the GCRMN by the US Department of State and the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Note: The conclusions and recommendations of this book are solely the opinions of the authors, contributors and editors and do not constitute a statement of policy, decision, or position on behalf of the participating organisations, included those represented on the cover. Front Cover: This photo encapsulates the world of coral reefs, in this case in Micronesia where these three boys will be bequeathed damaged coral reefs. The large blue-green humphead or Napoleon wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus) is now listed as endangered on Appendix II of CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora), mainly because it is highly prized in Chinese restaurants: photo courtesy of Darren Cameron. Back Cover: This is a typical healthy coral reef, in this case Rowley Shoals Marine Park, Western Australia. The corals are abundant and healthy, and there are large schools of algal grazing fish, especially parrotfish and surgeonfish. No your eyes are not deceiving you, there is also a tropical polar bear (explanation on page 13). The photo Suzanne Long/Western Australian Department of Environment and Conservation. Maps were provided by UNEP-WCMC through ReefBase, The WorldFish Center; we thank them. Citation: Wilkinson, C. (2008). Status of coral reefs of the world: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, Australia, 296 p. Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network c/o Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, PO Box 772, Townsville, 4810 Australia Tel: ; Fax: ISSN ii

3 Co n t e n t s Contents Page iii Countries, States and Territories v Foreword 1 Introduction 3 Acknowledgements Co-sponsors and Supporters of GCRMN The Executive Summary 5 French Translation: Résumé de L état des Récifs Coralliens Mondiaux: Seals on Coral Reefs: Extinct in the Caribbean, Threatened in the Pacific 24 Spanish Translation: Resumen Ejecutivo Estado de Los Arrecifes Coralinos del Mundo: Global Climate Change and Coral Reefs: 1a. Rising Temperatures, Acidification and the Need for Resilient Reefs 29 1b. Reef Temperature Perspectives Covering the Last Century New Coral Reef Initiatives: Status of Socioeconomic Factors Impacting Coral Reefs 41 Synopsis of Conclusions of the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium 43 CRISP and Coral Reef Conservation in the Pacific 45 CORDIO: Coastal Oceans Research and Development in the Indian Ocean 46 GEF-WB Coral Reef Targeted Research 47 The Micronesia Challenge to Conserve Biodiversity 48 Marine Protected Areas: Bigger, Better and Networked 49 Status of Fish Spawning Aggregations of the World 50 Where Have All the Big Fish Gone? 52 Promoting Sustainable Tourism along the Mesoamerican Reef 54 The Coral Triangle Initiative: The World s Greatest Coral Reef Challenge 55 Do Reef Communities of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Exist as Alternative Stable States? The Status of Cold-Water Coral Communities of the World: A Brief Update Status of Coral Reefs in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden Region 67 The Coral Reefs of Eritrea: Little Known Gems Status of Coral Reefs in the ROPME Sea Area (the Gulf, Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea) 79 Cyclone Gonu Caused Significant Damage to Coral Reefs 83 Severe Bleaching in the Northern Gulf, Status of Coral Reefs in East Africa: Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique and South Africa Status of the Coral Reefs of the South-West Indian Ocean Island States: Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Réunion, Seychelles 105 Status of Coral Reefs on small French islands in the Western Indian Ocean 114 Status of the Coral Reefs of Mayotte Comoros Archipelago 117 iii

4 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: Status of Coral Reefs in South Asia: Bangladesh, Chagos, India, Maldives and Sri Lanka 119 Effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami on Coral Reefs Status of Coral Reefs in South-East Asia 131 Green Fins a New Programme for Coral Reef Conservation 135 Reef Status in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, Indonesia Post 2004 Tsunami Recruitment in Mu Ko Similan, Thailand 143 Reef Mortality Event at Hin Muang/Hin Daeng, Thailand, in Mu Koh Chang Coral Reef Demonstration Site Status of Coral Reefs in East and North Asia (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan) 145 The Coral Reefs of Eilat, Israel Status of the Coral Reefs in Australia and Papua New Guinea 159 No-Take Marine Reserves Reduce COTS Outbreaks 162 Ecological Effects of the Rezoning of the GBR Marine Park 164 Impressions of PNG Reefs After 33 Years of Diving 173 Timor-Leste: the First Coral Reef Status Report Status of the Coral Reefs in the South West Pacific: Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu 177 World Heritage Listing of the Lagoons of New Caledonia 184 Nguna-Pele MPA in Vanuatu: A Valuable Case Study 186 The Value of Volunteer Monitoring: Reef Check and OceansWatch Status of Coral Reefs in Polynesia Mana Node Countries: Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Niue, Kiribati, Tonga, Tokelau and Wallis and Futuna 189 Coral Reef Monitoring in the very remote Clipperton Atoll 193 Phoenix Island Protected Area: The World s Largest MPA Status of Coral Reef Resources in Micronesia and American Samoa 199 American Samoa Protects Large Reef Fishes 209 Long-Term Monitoring in American Samoa: the AUA Transect Status of Coral Reefs in Hawaii and United States Pacific Remote Island Areas (Baker, Howland, Palmyra, Kingman, Jarvis, Johnston, Wake) 213 Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument Status of the Coral Reef Ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico: Florida, Flower Garden Banks, Us Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Navassa Status of Coral Reefs in the Northern Caribbean and Western Atlantic GCRMN Node Status of Coral Reefs in the Mesoamerican Region 253 Update on Coral Reef Conservation and Management in Brazil Status of Coral Reefs of the Lesser Antilles: the French West Indies, the Netherlands Antilles, Anguilla, Antigua, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago 265 CCCC: Caribbean Challenge to Conserve Corals Status of Coral Reefs and Associated Ecosystems in Southern Tropical America: Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panamá and Venezuela 281 The Brazilian National Coral Reef Monitoring Program 288 Decline of Calcification Rates of the Endemic Coral Mussismilia braziliensis: Thermal Stress Alerts in Brazil 293 Appendix I. Sponsoring Organisations, Coral Reef Programs and Monitoring Networks 295 Appendix II. List of Acronyms 297 iv

5 Countries, States And Territories American Samoa Chapter Anguilla Chapter Antigua and Barbuda Chapter Australia Chapter Bahamas Chapter Bahrain Chapter 5 79 Bangladesh Chapter Belize Chapter Bermuda Chapter Brazil Chapter Brunei Chapter Cambodia Chapter Cayman Islands Chapter Chagos Chapter China Chapter Colombia Chapter Comores Chapter Cook Islands Chapter Costa Rica Chapter Cuba Chapter Djibouti Chapter 4 67 Dominican Republic Chapter Egypt Chapter 4 67 Eritrea Chapter 4 67 Federated States of Micronesia Chapter Fiji Chapter French Polynesia Chapter French West Indies Chapter Grenada Chapter Guadeloupe Chapter Guam Chapter Guatemala Chapter Haiti Chapter Hawaii Chapter Honduras Chapter Hong Kong Chapter Iran Chapter 5 79 India Chapter Indonesia Chapter Israel Box 158 Jamaica Chapter Japan Chapter Jordan Chapter 4 67 Kenya Chapter 6 91 Kiribati Chapter Kuwait Chapter 5 79 Madagascar Chapter v

6 Maldives Chapter Malaysia Chapter Marshall Islands Chapter Martinique Chapter Mauritius Chapter México Chapter Myanmar/Burma Chapter Mozambique Chapter 6 91 Nauru Chapter Netherlands Antilles, The Chapter New Caledonia Chapter Niue Chapter Northern Marianas Chapter Oman Chapter 5 79 Pakistan Chapter Palau Chapter Panama Chapter Papua New Guinea Chapter Philippines Chapter Puerto Rico Chapter Qatar Chapter 5 79 Réunion Chapter Samoa Chapter Saudi Arabia Chapter 4 67 Seychelles Chapter Singapore Chapter Solomon Islands Chapter Somalia Chapter 4 67 South Africa Chapter 6 91 South Korea Chapter Sri Lanka Chapter Sudan Chapter 4 67 Taiwan Chapter Tanzania Chapter 6 91 Thailand Chapter Timor-Leste Chapter Trinidad and Tobago Chapter Tokelau Chapter Turks and Caicos Chapter Tuvalu Chapter United Arab Emirates Chapter 5 79 US (Florida, Gulf of Mexico) Chapter US Virgin Islands Chapter Vanuatu Chapter Venezuela Chapter Vietnam Chapter Wallis and Futuna Chapter Yemen Chapter 4 67 vi

7 Fo r e w o r d The International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI) was conceived at the UN Conference on the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States in Barbados in 1994 in recognition of the problems facing coral reefs. As the Australian Ambassador for the Environment, I was pleased to Chair the negations that initiated ICRI and again in 1995 in Dumaguete City, Philippines when I Chaired the first ICRI General Meeting that recommended the formation of the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. ICRI has declared this year, 2008, as the International Year of the Reef to emphasise the need for urgent action to conserve coral reefs and the associated benefits they bring to people through their rich biodiversity resources. The first GCRMN global status report was produced in 1998, as massive climate change-related coral bleaching was devastating reefs in the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific and Wider Caribbean. We are pleased to report that many remote reefs in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, including Indonesian and Palauan reefs, are now recovering rapidly; however many other reefs facing heavy human pressures are recovering slowly or not at all. The world s coral reefs suffered two major setbacks since 2004: the Indian Ocean earthquake and resultant tsunamis in 2004 caused significant coral reef damage, especially in Indonesia; and 2005 was the hottest year on record throughout large parts of the Caribbean, resulting in extensive coral bleaching and mortality. Some Challenge countries lost more than half of their corals due to bleaching and disease. These events are documented for decision-makers in previous GCRMN reports. We have joined our neighbouring leaders to launch two major challenges aimed at conserving coral reefs and their biodiversity: the Micronesia Challenge; and the Caribbean Challenge. This process started with the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, when world leaders signed Chapter 17 of Agenda 21, ratified the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and pledged to conserve coral reefs. These pledges were essentially repeated at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002, and a challenge was made within the CBD to significantly reduce the rate of global biodiversity loss by We responded to that challenge by launching our own regional challenges and also welcome three major marine protected area developments: the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument near Hawai i, the Phoenix Islands Protected Area of Kiribati, and the UNESCO World Heritage listing of many reefs in New Caledonia (see boxes pages 224, 195 and 184). The first major output was the Coral Triangle Initiative that includes Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Timor Leste in a partnership to conserve their coral reefs and other marine resources. This was signed at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in September 2007 in Australia with the support of other leaders attending (page 55). Micronesia is immediately adjacent to the Coral Triangle and contains large areas of exceptionally rich biodiversity; but with lower human pressures. The value of this biodiversity is evident to all, including us in Palau. Therefore, as President of Palau, I asked my fellow leaders in the Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Guam and Northern Mariana Islands 1

8 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 to take up the challenging target of conserving 30% of our marine resources and 20% of lands and forests by We launched the Micronesia Challenge in 2006 at the CBD meeting in Brazil, and are now putting words into action to meet this challenge with financial help from the Global Environment Facility, major NGOs, especially The Nature Conservancy and Conservation International, and pledges from various donor countries (page 48). Caribbean island countries have also responded to the call to conserve their coral reef biodiversity. As Prime Minister of The Bahamas, I was pleased to confirm that the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines joined the Caribbean Challenge at the 9th Meeting of the Conference of Parties to the CBD in Germany in May By adopting this challenge, we are committing to protect a minimum of 10% of our marine areas by Our small island states are very dependent on coral reef resources for both food and tourism income, and without major efforts by our peoples, assisted by international supporters, our reefs will continue to decline. To secure our livelihoods and our reefs we hope other Caribbean countries will also join the Challenge. These regional challenges and international cooperation are supported by the Global Island Partnership (GLISPA), which mobilizes the leadership of island nations and nations with islands to share resources, skills, knowledge and technologies towards action to conserve island resources and sustain livelihoods (page 280). We are pleased to endorse this Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 report and the recommendations made by 372 people from around the world to conserve their coral reefs. Similarly, we reaffirm our support for the calls made at the World Summits in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and Johannesburg in 2002, and through our challenges we ask the world to join us in conserving the world s coral reefs for the future and our children. We must act globally and locally to reduce the pressure humans place on coral reefs through pollution, increased sedimentation, excessive and destructive fishing practices, and mining or infilling of coral reefs. We must also combat global climate change as a new threat resulting in coral bleaching and increasing ocean acidification. And we must work with the people who live near coral reefs and depend on them for food and shelter to ensure they have sustainable and healthy livelihoods. Penelope Wensley AO Governor of Queensland, and former Australian Ambassador for the Environment Tommy E. Remengesau President of Palau Hubert Alexander Ingraham Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of The Bahamas 2

9 In t r o d u c t i o n This Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 report is the 5 th global report since the GCRMN (Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network), was formed in 1996 as an operational network of the International Coral Reef Initiative (ICRI). The catalyst for GCRMN was the inability of international agencies to report objectively on the health or otherwise of the world s coral reefs. The US government then provided initial funding to set up a global network of coral reef workers to facilitate reporting on reef status; and has continued to be the major supporter of GCRMN and ICRI since the first strategies and action plans were developed in Each report (1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004) has aimed to present the current status of the world s coral reefs, the threats to the reefs, and the initiatives being undertaken under the umbrella of ICRI to arrest the decline in the world s coral reefs. These reports have been produced using the data and information from many coral reef experts around the world. For example 372 experts from 96 countries have contributed to this Status report. Many regional, national and local organisations, governmental, academic, NGO and volunteers have supported the functions of GCRMN. The united goal is to inform the global community on the status of coral reefs, the threats to them and, importantly, to list recommendations to improve coral reef conservation. There is widespread recognition that action is needed urgently, not only to conserve the enormous biodiversity on coral reefs, but also to assist local user communities to improve their livelihoods by ensuring the sustainable use of the reefs. The Management Group of GCRMN have supported the production of Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008, although the GCRMN Coordinator, Clive Wilkinson, assumes responsibility for many of the statements, conclusions and recommendations and final wording of the text. The Management Group consists of the following international agencies: Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO; UNEP United Nations Environment Programme; IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature (and Management Group Chair); Environment Department of the World Bank; Convention on Biological Diversity; ReefBase at The WorldFish Center; Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority of Australia; and the Secretariat of the International Coral Reef Initiative (currently the governments of Mexico and US). Much of the strength of the GCRMN is through the partner networks, specifically GCRMN SocMon (Socioeconomic Monitoring Initiative for Coastal Management), the Reef Check Foundation, CRISP the Coral Reef Initiatives for the Pacific, CORDIO Coastal Oceans Research and Development, Indian Ocean, and the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre in northern Australia which hosts the global coordination office. These organisations represent thousands of people with the goal of improving research, management, sustainable use and conservation of coral reefs and associated tropical coastal ecosystems, and in assisting coastal people achieve a better standard of life. The structure of this Status 2008 report follows previous reports in having 17 node chapters from coral reef regions around the world, with most of the contributions coming voluntarily from people coordinating and associated with these nodes. Also included are an update on cold water coral reefs and two theme papers presenting the latest information on global climate change and how this will affect coral reefs. We have also included a section on new emerging themes and reports from the major project activities around the world; others are to be found as boxes within the regional chapters. The GCRMN Management Group and the many supporters of the GCRMN listed below recommend this Status 2008 report to you and request that you consider the findings and recommendations and join them in seeking more action to reverse the damaging trends that are occurring on reefs around the world. 3

10 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 Ac k n o w l e d g e m e n t s Production of this book was only possible through the voluntary contributions of many people who are working to monitor, manage and conserve the world s coral reefs. We specifically thank them for their generous offer of data, information and time in monitoring reefs, analysing the data, writing these reports, assisting in the editing and proof reading and specifically in reviewing the regional chapters, often at very short notice. This Status 2008 report is presented in 2 formats: this published summary book; and the accompanying CD on which we include much more information and many more references to scientific papers and reports. This report will be lodged on ReefBase, at WorldFish Center, ReefBase Pacific in Fiji which act as the global and Pacific regional coral reef databases, and We wish to thank the reviewers of text for their effort and patience: Rich Aronson, Chris Bartlett, Charles Birkeland, John Bruno, Aude Caromel, Chou Loke Ming, James Crabbe, Leo Dutra, Moustafa Fouda, David Fisk, Alan Friedlander, Edgardo Gomez, Alison Green, Alain de Grissac, Virginie Tilot de Grissac, Stefan Hain, Andrew Harvey, Marea Hatziolos, Scott Heron, Gregor Hodgson, Les Kaufmann, Mai-Britt Knopff, Judy Lang, Olof Linden, Christy Loper, Jim Maragos, Paul Marshall, Jaun Mate, Tim McClanahan, David Medio, Nyawira Muthiga, David Obura, Jamie Oliver, Russell Reichelt, Chris Roelfsma, Bernard Salvat, Mike Schleyer Charles Sheppard, Posa Skelton, Chris Simpson, David Souter, Robin South, Bob Steneck, Jerker Tamelander, Oliver Taylor, Karenne Tun, Alessandra Vanzella-Khouri, Ernesto Weil, Simon Wilson, Liz Wood. We specifically thank Kim Pritchard, Fiona Alongi, Florence Damiens and Heather Laurie for gathering information, formatting, editing and organising this complex task. Three operational partners of the GCRMN have assisted with this report: Gregor Hodgson and Jenny Mihaly of the Reef Check Foundation; Christy Loper of NOAA who coordinates the Socioeconomic Monitoring Network; Eric Clua who coordinates CRISP, Jerker Tamelander and David Obura, who coordinate CORDIO, and many other colleagues. The Management Group listed below provide substantial assistance, advice and support - we thank them all. The host of the GCRMN, the Reef and Rainforest Research Centre is specifically thanked. Support for the GCRMN primarily comes from the US Department of State, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via the offices of UNEP in Cambridge and Nairobi. Without this support there would be no GCRMN and this book; thus special thanks go my colleagues in these agencies. Funds to produce, print and distribute this book and distribute it free around the world came from: the Government of the USA (Department of State and NOAA); the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO; Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority; the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); IFRECOR the French Government coral reef initiative; IUCN - International Union for Conservation of Nature; Project AWARE; RRRC - Reef and Rainforest Research Centre; and the Government of Japan. We offer a special thanks to NOAA for developing and maintaining coral-list; this amazing tool has kept coral reef workers connected and informed, and is a source of excellent information and lively debate. Special thanks go to Jim Hendee and his team at NOAA for their hard work and patience in assisting and keeping us under control. GCRMN Management Group (1) Major Financial Supporters (2), and Supporters of this report (3) IOC-UNESCO: Intergovernmental Oceanographic (1, 3) Commission of UNESCO (1, 2) UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature (1, 3) (Chair) The World Bank, Environment Department (1) CBD: Convention on Biological Diversity (1) (1, 3) GBRMPA: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority WorldFish Center and ReefBase (1) ICRI Secretariat: Governments of USA and Mexico (1) RRRC: Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Ltd (1, 3) (Australia), host The Environment Department, Government of Japan (3) The Government of the USA, through the US Department of State (2) NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Fish and Wildlife Foundation (2) GCRMN Operational Partners GCRMN SocMon (Socioeconomic Monitoring Initiative for Coastal Management) at NOAA Reef Check Foundation, Los Angeles ReefBase, WorldFish Center, Penang; & ReefBase Pacific in Fiji World Resources Institute, Washington, DC CORDIO: Coastal Oceans Research and Development, Indian Ocean. IFRECOR: the French Government coral reef initiative (3) Project AWARE in Los Angeles, London and Sydney (3) CRISP - Coral Reef InitiativeS for the Pacific GCRMN Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee. 4

11 Executive Summary Clive Wilkinson Sy n o p s i s Coral reefs of the world have effectively marked time since the last report in Some areas have recovered well after the climate change bleaching in 1998 and human damage; while the Indian Ocean tsunami, more bleaching in the Caribbean, and human pressures have slowed or reversed recovery. Estimates assembled through the expert opinions of 372 coral reef scientists and managers from 96 countries are that the world has effectively lost 19% of the original area of coral reefs; 15% are seriously threatened with loss within the next years; and 20% are under threat of loss in years. The latter two estimates have been made under a business as usual scenario that does not consider the looming threats posed by global climate change or that effective future management may conserve more coral reefs. However, 46% of the world s reefs are regarded as being relatively healthy and not under any immediate threats of destruction, except for the currently unpredictable global climate threat. These predictions carry many caveats, as explained below. In 2008, the International Year of the Reef, there is a mixture of good and bad news in this Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 report. Several major events have damaged coral reefs since December 2004 when the previous Status 2004 report was released. But there have also been major positive steps taken to conserve the world s coral reefs. Some steps have been forward and some steps backward. Significant backward steps were: zx The Indian Ocean megathrust earthquake and tsunami struck on 26 December 2004 with enormous loss of life and disruption to Indian Ocean countries. There was considerable damage to the coral reefs of the Indian Ocean, but not at a scale comparable to human losses (Box p. 130); zx 2005 was the hottest year in the Northern Hemisphere since 1998 and this resulted in massive coral bleaching and hurricanes throughout the wider Caribbean in 2005 killing many corals and further damaging their reefs; zx Degradation of coral reefs near major centres of population continues with losses of coral cover, fish populations and probably biodiversity. This is certainly happening around the Coral Triangle, the world s centre for marine biodiversity (p. 55); zx There is increasing evidence that global climate change is having direct impacts on more and more coral reefs with clear evidence that rising ocean acidification will cause greater damage into the future; zx Socioeconomic assessments are increasing on coral reefs and being used more in management decision making. These assessments are being employed to strengthen or re-invigorate traditional management structures, especially in the Pacific where many traditional management regimes remain intact; 5

12 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 zx However, coral reef declines will have alarming consequences for approximately 500 million people who depend on coral reefs for food, coastal protection, building materials and income from tourism. This includes 30 million who are virtually totally dependent on coral reefs for their livelihoods or for the land they live on (atolls); zx Problems for coral reef managers are increasing, as 50% the world s population will live along coasts by 2015, putting unsustainable pressures on coastal resources. The reefs they manage will contain less attractive but tougher corals. Rising food and fuel prices, commercialisation of fishing activities and the global financial crisis are resulting in over-fishing and serial depletion of fish stocks in many poor countries; and zx The solution remains in establishing more Marine Protected Areas linked into networks and managed by all stakeholders, especially user communities. Countering such gloomy news, are some major advances: zx Two enormous marine protected areas (MPAs) focussed on coral reefs have been declared in the Pacific; the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument covering the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA) were declared by the governments of USA and Kiribati respectively (Boxes p. 224, 195); zx Large areas of the coral reefs around New Caledonia have been given World Heritage listing (Box p. 184), and more areas are under consideration elsewhere; zx Coral reefs in the Indian Ocean, especially in the Seychelles, Chagos and the Maldives, and Palau in the Western Pacific, have continued to recover from the devastating bleaching of 1998; zx In December 2007 President Yudhoyono of Indonesia gained support and funding from world leaders for the Coral Triangle Initiative to conserve the coral reef resources of Southeast Asia (p. 55); zx This initiative theme was expanded to include Western Pacific countries that border the Coral Triangle when President Remengesau of Palau instigated the Micronesia Challenge with other leaders who made commitments to conserve 20% of the land and 30% of the waters as protected areas in linked networks (p. 48); zx Soon after, Prime Minister Ingraham of The Bahamas gathered 4 of his neighbours to form the Caribbean Challenge that seeks to conserve 30% of their coastal resources (Box p. 280); In addition, there have been other positive activities for coral reefs including: zx The International Coral Reef Initiative, currently co-chaired by Mexico and the USA, declared 2008 as the International Year of the Reef and developed major awareness raising campaigns around the world; zx The 11 th International Coral Reef Symposium assembled 3500 scientists, managers and decision makers in Ft Lauderdale, USA, in July 2008 to bring the power of science to coral reef conservation (p. 43); zx Reef Check has organised signatures on the Declaration of Reef Rights petition launched in the International Year of the Reef; zx The Pew Environment Group is working with developed country governments to declare very large areas as no-take marine reserves, including the Coral Sea of Australia, the Northern Mariana Islands, the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Kermadec Trench, off New Zealand; 6

13 Executive Summary zx The Coral Reef Targeted Research and Capacity Building for Management Program established 4 Centres of Excellence to build science capacity for management (p. 47) zx CRISP (Coral Reefs InitiativeS for the Pacific) has expanded operations into 17 Pacific island countries with considerable progress in raising capacity for reef management and socioeconomic assessment (p. 45 ) zx The French and USA governments completed major national coral reef summary reports in 2008; the South West Pacific Node produced a regional report in 2007: the French and SW Pacific Node reports were presented in GCRMN format; zx The Global Environment Facility has allocated $100 million as the Pacific Alliance for Sustainability to bring Pacific countries together to conserve their environments. Part of this money is going towards the Coral Triangle Initiative and the Micronesia Challenge; zx Germany has launched a new Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre based at the Senckenberg Research Institute in Frankfurt; it will have a significant coral reef component. A series of Recommendations are listed below. The Executive Summary : the Status of Coral Reefs in 2008 This Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 report from the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network summarises what has happened to the world s coral reefs since 2004 and uses expert opinion of coral reef scientists and managers from 96 countries and states to make predictions on what could happen to coral reefs in the future. This combined expertise also seeks to provide advice to the world s decision makers on what should be done to allow us to bequeath healthy coral reefs to future generations. The release of this report coincides with the end of the International Year of the Reef (IYOR 2008), which has focussed considerable global attention on coral reefs. One of the signs of progress in coral reef awareness and monitoring are the numbers of authors and contributors to these Status reports. There were 41 contributing authors in 1998; 97 in 2000; 151 in 2002; and 240 in In this Status 2008 report there are 372 authors and contributors. These numbers also reflect considerable advances in monitoring in many countries of the world, with some long-term data sets being contributed and reports coming in from countries not reported previously Timor Leste, island states of the Lesser Antilles and isolated French Islands. Recommendations for Action to Conserve Coral Reefs These summary recommendations are based on the 17 regional chapters and the other specialist reports. There are more detailed and specific recommendations at the end of most chapters: these are considered the most urgent by the many authors and contributors to conserve coral reefs for future generations: zx Urgently combat global climate change current rates of climate change pose the greatest threat to the long-term sustainability of coral reefs and human coastal communities. We request that the world community, through their governments, agencies, NGOs, academic institutions and especially business establishments, collaborate to urgently reduce the current rate of emissions of greenhouse gases through reductions in energy use and the development of sustainable energy generating mechanisms or trading systems, and develop technologies to remove these gases, especially CO 2, from the atmosphere, to ensure that coral reefs will thrive in the next century. zx Maximise coral reef resilience (by minimising direct human pressures on reefs) the 7

14 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 second major threat to reefs derives from direct human activities: over-fishing and destructive fishing; sediment pollution from poor land use; runoff of nutrients and other pollution; and habitat loss through unsustainable development. Control of these threats, which are damaging reefs around the world especially in developing countries including small island developing states, will improve the resilience of coral reefs in the face of climate change. These countries need assistance to improve local catchment and coastal management by upgrading capacity and providing funds to implement community-based management and develop alternative livelihoods to take pressures off reefs. zx Scale up management of protected areas there is a need to improve the management of existing marine protected areas (MPAs) to accelerate restoration of depleted fish stocks and protect coral reef goods and services that underpin coastal economies and livelihoods. This includes managing adjacent catchment areas to prevent nutrient and sediment pollution to create buffer areas that will reinforce MPA management activities. zx Include more reefs in MPAs a proven and effective governance approach for conserving coral reefs and promoting sustainable use is to include them in effectively managed MPAs; preferably containing a significant proportion as fishery reserves or notake areas, linked into a network of MPAs, and embedded within a larger governance framework. Developing countries will need assistance in expanding their MPA networks and establishing integrated coastal management (ICM) governance frameworks. zx Protect remote reefs there are many coral reefs remote from continental land masses and human populations that, if they are protected, will be able to act as reservoirs of biodiversity to replenish depleted reefs. We recommend establishing more MPAs to include many of the remote island reefs, like those to the west of Hawai i, in Kiribati, and the Coral Sea east of the Great Barrier Reef. Developed countries may have the best resources in governance and enforcement to conserve large remote areas in their territorial waters. zx Improve enforcement of MPA regulations enforceable governance systems will be required to deal with the formidable problem of regulating access to managed ecosystems (including types and rates of resource exploitation). Many countries will need assistance to establish effective enforcement systems that function in different marine coastal and marine environments and do not undermine local cultural values and practices. zx Help improve decision making with better ecological and socioeconomic monitoring there is an urgent need to upscale monitoring, especially with increasing threats of climate change, to ensure that this information is provided to natural resource managers and decision makers so that appropriate actions can be taken to reduce threats to reefs and coastal communities. Stat u s No w a n d Pr e d i c t i o n s f o r t h e Fu t u r e The GCRMN has used the reports from 372 authors and contributors to assess the current status of the world s coral reefs and make predictions about the future of reefs out to 40 years from now. There are contrasting trends: reefs are recovering from the massive bleaching losses in 1998 in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific; however, there were similar scale bleaching losses in the wider Caribbean in 2005 and 2006; direct human pressures are resulting in chronic losses on coral reefs near major population centres; while effective coral reef management is reducing threats in a number of countries. Reefs Effectively Lost: Expert opinion backed by extensive monitoring and assessment data suggest that the world has lost the goods and services provided by 19% of the global coral reef area. These 8

15 Executive Summary reefs are either so heavily degraded as to be non-functional, or have been polluted or mined out of existence. The comparable figure was 20% in The decrease of 1% is due to strong coral reef recovery particularly in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific after the devastating bleaching in However, recovery is stalled or weak where there are substantial human pressures (over-fishing, pollution, sedimentation and unwise development). Countering that, there were major losses in the wider Caribbean following similarly devastating bleaching, coral diseases and hurricanes in 2005, compounded by on-going degradation from sediment and nutrient pollution and over-fishing and associated damage. Reefs in the heavily populated areas of Asia and the wider Caribbean report most losses. Reefs in the Persian Gulf have been devastated by major coral bleaching events and recently by extensive coastal developments along the Arabian Peninsula. Many reefs in this category are not irretrievably lost and will recover if human stresses can be reduced or if the devastating impacts of coral bleaching, diseases and predators are not repeated in the short-term. Predictions about the future of coral reefs are particularly difficult as multiple stresses and climate factors impinge on reefs. Thus, we recommend that these predictions be used as a guide, particularly for national, international and funding decision makers to establish priorities for action. These predictions are made on a business as usual assumption that there will be no major improvements in remedial management action and not considering the looming threats posed by global climate change. This latter assumption effectively ignores the growing global consensus that climate change seriously threatens the medium to long-term future for the world s coral reefs. Reefs at the Critical Stage: It is predicted that 15% of the world s coral reefs are under imminent threat of joining the Effectively Lost category within the next years, unless effective management actions are implemented. These predictions are based on observed trends over the past decade, on demographic increases in human population pressures, and assessments of the effectiveness of current management. The regions with most Critical Stage reefs have not changed from 2004 (predominantly Eastern Africa, South and South-east Asia and the wider Caribbean), where human pressures are regarded as high and increasing in the regional chapters below. This is a decrease from the 2004 estimate of 24% critically threatened. If current predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and coral reef experts (see p. 29 & 35) are factored into these assessments, this category or the next (threatened) will contain all of the remaining coral reefs. This is why urgent action is needed to drastically reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases. Reefs at the Threatened Stage: The predictions are that 20% of reefs are under threat of loss in years; again with the caveat that management will be ineffective at reversing growing demographic pressures. The location of these Threatened reefs is similar to the Critical Stage reefs, and includes those a little more remote from human disturbances or next in line for serious exploitation of development. This is a decrease from the Threatened state in 2004 of 26%. Reefs at Low Risk: Fortunately, the regional experts consider that 46% of the world s reefs are either stable or recovering rapidly and not threatened by significant levels of human stresses. Most of these reefs are either well managed such as the Great Barrier Reef, Bonaire, Bermuda, the Flower Garden Banks and Cuba, or remote from large land masses and human disturbances such as the Red Sea, the Maldives, Seychelles and Chagos in the Indian Ocean, and Papua New Guinea and many small atolls and islands in the Pacific Ocean, along with a few reefs in the wider Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean. The comparable figure was 30% in 2004, with the differences mainly being reefs that have recovered after the 1998 bleaching and the discovery of large areas of deeper reefs, especially in the Northern Caribbean. 9

16 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 Caveats: These status assessments and predictions are based on considerable monitoring data using a range of methods, varying from very detailed species level monitoring to rapid monitoring by trained volunteers (see p. 18). However, it is recognised that monitoring in many countries only covers a small and unrepresentative proportion of the reefs, such that the monitoring data are inadequate for a quantitative assessment. In these cases we have relied on qualitative assessments based on the expert opinion of national and visiting scientists, complemented by information from professional dive guides. Reefs categorised as lost are not effectively functioning as coral reefs and exhibit many of these criteria: live coral cover has declined radically (to below 5%); many remaining corals are either broken, diseased or covered in sediment; fish populations are seriously over-fished with very few large predators and algal grazing fish; there is clear evidence of pollution with poor quality turbid water; and the reefs are being over-grown with macro-algae, sponges or other organisms favoured by polluted waters. Another caveat is that the predictions of Threatened and Critical are based predominantly on future human stresses, without considering the threats of global climate change, predicted to be inevitable but without clear timelines. We have assessed the validity of regional assessments in the Table on p.18). Damaging Events For Coral Reefs Immediately after the Status 2004 report was launched in December 2004, the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami occurred; and 6 months later in 2005 catastrophic coral bleaching enveloped the wider Caribbean. In addition, the level of damaging human activities has continued to increase in parallel with increases in human populations, especially in the coastal tropics. These increases make the task for natural resource managers even more difficult and urgent. The Indian Ocean Earthquakes and Tsunamis of 2004: The largest earthquake for 40 years struck near Sumatra on 26 December 2004 and spread 1300 km to the Andaman Islands of India. Some reefs in Sumatra and the Andaman Islands were thrust out of the water killing them almost instantly. The resulting tsunamis killed more than people in Indonesia, Thailand, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands of India, and Sri Lanka, and devastated their lands and economies. There was significant damage to reefs in Indonesia, Thailand, the Andaman Islands and Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, with much of the damage caused by debris from the land or dead coral rubble smashing or smothering other corals. Most of the corals have since recovered but over-fishing and pollution from poor land use and inadequate treatment of wastes remain as major threats (from Wilkinson C, Souter D, Goldberg J (2006). Status of Coral Reefs in Tsunami Affected Countries: Australian Institute of Marine Science and Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network, Townsville Australia, 154 p.). Coral Bleaching and Hurricanes in the Caribbean in 2005: 2005 and 1998 were the hottest, and most devastating, years for coral reefs since global records started in In 1998 the damage was greatest in the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific and the Caribbean. In 2005 the damage was confined to the wider Caribbean where coral bleaching and mortality compounded previous bleaching in 1987, 1995 and Losses were extreme: 51.5% losses of live hard coral cover at sites in US Virgin Islands; more than 50% of coral colonies bleached in Florida, Puerto Rico, the Cayman Islands, St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Barthelemy, Barbados, Jamaica and Cuba; up to 20% coral mortality on Barbados; 11 30% mortality in the French West Indies, and Trinidad and Tobago. Also, 2005 was the most severe hurricane season ever with 26 tropical storms including 13 hurricanes, which damaged coral reefs (e.g. coral cover was halved around Cozumel, Mexico). Many stressed and bleached corals subsequently died from coral diseases in 2006 (from Wilkinson C, Souter D, (2008). Status of Caribbean Coral Reefs after Bleaching and Hurricanes in Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville Australia 152 p.). 10

17 Executive Summary Region Coral Reef Area km 2 1 Effectively Lost Reefs (%) 2 Reefs at Critical Stage (%) 3 Reefs at Threatened Stage (%) 4 Reefs at Low Threat level (%) 5 Red Sea The Gulfs Eastern Africa SW Indian Ocean South Asia SE Asia E & N Asia Australia, PNG SW Pacific Islands Polynesian Islands Micronesian Islands Hawaiian Islands US Caribbean North Caribbean Central America Lesser Antilles S Tropical America TOTAL Coral reef area from the World Atlas of Coral Reefs (2001). 2. Reefs effectively lost with 90% of the corals lost and unlikely to recover soon; 3. Reefs at a critical stage with 50 to 90% loss of corals and likely to join category 2 in 10 to 20 years; 4. Reefs threatened with moderate signs of damage: 20 50% loss of corals and likely to join category 1 in years 5. Reefs under no immediate threat of significant losses (except for global climate change). Categories 3 and 4 are based on the very high to high risk, and the medium risk categories of the Reefs at Risk process The table summarises the current status of the world s coral reefs determined from the regional chapters (below). These estimates were determined using considerable coral reef monitoring data, some anecdotal reports and the expert opinion of hundreds of people associated with the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN). These assessments should be regarded as indicative, because there is insufficient coral reef monitoring data for many of these regions to make definitive statements on losses and authoritative predictions on the future. Plagues and Diseases: There are disturbing reports of new outbreaks of crown-of- thorns starfish (COTS) devastating coral reefs in the Red Sea around Egypt, along the coast of East Africa in Kenya and Tanzania, in parts of South-east and East Asia (especially in the Philippines, Japan and China), and in the Pacific in Guam, Majuro Atoll (Marshalls), Fiji and French Polynesia. In the past, these plagues have caused massive losses (often in the vicinity of 90%) of living coral cover. Similarly there are reports of outbreaks of the coral eating mollusc (Drupella cornus) on reefs in Western Australia and southern China. 11

18 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 Diseases devastated coral populations throughout the wider Caribbean in the 1980s and 1990s, particularly affecting Acropora species, and reducing coral cover significantly. After apparently abating, massive outbreaks of disease accompanied the mass coral bleaching in 2005 and The severity of these diseases is often correlated with corals stressed by bleaching, being most severe in summer and declining in winter. Coral diseases are being observed more frequently on Indo-Pacific reefs but are not nearly as serious as in the Caribbean. Continuing Human Stresses on Coral Reefs: In the Status 2004 report, we listed the Top 10 threats to coral reefs under 3 categories. Sadly these continue in 2008 with no signs of abatement: The Global Change Threats : 1) coral bleaching from warmer seawater due to global climate change; 2) rising concentrations of dissolved CO 2, also a product of climate change; 3) diseases, plagues and invasive species. The Direct Human Pressures : 4) excess sediments flowing off the land; 5) pollution by nutrients and chemicals, arising from poor land management, agriculture and industry; 6) over-fishing and destructive fishing, especially taking algal grazing fishes, the immune system of a coral reef; 7) unsustainable and destructive development of coastal areas. Inadequate Governance, Awareness and Political Will : 8) increasing poverty and populations, and loss of agricultural land; 9) poor capacity for management and lack of resources, especially in small island countries; and 10) weak political will, and ineffective oceans governance. The last 7 threats are amenable to local action, aided by donor and developed countries providing some financial and logistical resources. The first 3 threats can only be solved by unified and concerted global action by all governments and people; the Kyoto conference successor, in Copenhagen, December 2009 will determine whether the world is willing to take these necessary steps. The current fear is that the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 will provide an excuse for governments to avoid taking the necessary action in the short-term. Major New Initiatives in Coral Reef Conservation By the start of the millennium there was increasing recognition that accelerated efforts were required to reverse loss of biodiversity and conserve ecosystems. In April 2002 the Convention on Biological Diversity pledged to significantly reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth. This target was endorsed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg and the United Nations General Assembly, and was incorporated as a new target under the Millennium Development Goals. For coral reefs, the WSSD target of establishing networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) encompassing 20% of marine resources by 2012 was critical. We consider that these calls have positively stimulated more effective coral reef conservation. Coral Triangle Initiative: Conservation of the world s highest biodiversity coral reefs is a target for Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Timor Leste. They formed the Coral Triangle Initiative in 2006 in response to calls by the Convention on Biological Diversity and the WWF to reduce the loss of biodiversity and set up networks of MPAs. President Yudhoyono of Indonesia is marshalling international assistance to conserve the biodiversity, fisheries and food security potential of these vast marine resources surrounding thousands of islands with a current budget of $300 million from governments, UN agencies and NGOs. The Micronesia Challenge: This arose at the same time when Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands pledged to conserve at least 30% of their marine resources and 20% of terrestrial resources by They seek a budget of $100 million to establish new MPAs and strengthen existing ones to conserve 61% of the world s coral species, more than species of reef fishes, 85 species of birds, 1400 species of plants; all with considerable cultural significance. 12

19 Executive Summary Caribbean Challenge: Caribbean countries accepted the challenge from Micronesia to launch the Caribbean Challenge to conserve biodiversity. The Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines have all pledged to conserve 20% of their marine and coastal habitats by 2020 because the livelihoods and cultures of 10 million people depend on these resources. Other countries are also considering joining. A key component will be the creation of a US$45 million Trust Fund to fund rangers, patrol boats, scientific expertise and education programs in new and existing MPAs. New Large MPAs: Two enormous MPAs in the Pacific were launched in The Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument was upgraded to highly protected status by the USA to take in the km 2 of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Coral Reef Ecosystem Reserve, designated in The Government of Kiribati, with help from major NGOs, has created the world s largest marine protected area by enlarging the Phoenix Islands Protected Area (PIPA), in January 2008, to encompass km 2. These eclipse the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, established in 1975 and upgraded in 2004, which has km 2 as no-take status out of the total km 2. The Pew Environment Group has commenced a campaign to encourage developed country governments with adequate capacity and enforcement capability to declare very large ocean areas as no-take marine reserves. They have proposed the Coral Sea of Australia and then seek to include the Northern Mariana Islands, the Chagos Archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Kermadec Trench off New Zealand. World Heritage and Coral Reefs: In June 2008, the World Heritage Commission listed 6 large areas of New Caledonia for special protection including km 2 of coral reefs. They acknowledged that these reefs are of global significance with a large concentration of biodiversity resources. The Republic of the Marshall Islands intends seeking World Heritage recognition for 9 atolls and one low reef island in 2009, and the government of Thailand is investigating a similar proposal for large areas of the Andaman Sea coast with substantial coral reefs. Polar Bears and Coral Reefs Putting polar bears and tropical corals into the same sentence is an unusual concept, possibly bizarre. But the linkage of the two charismatic animals, just one species of bear and more than 700 species of coral, encapsulates the position the world faces with global climate change. This dilemma for the world was brought home to me by Bill Eichbaum, a colleague working with WWF in Washington D.C. Climate change threatens both the Arctic and topical coral reefs; from 90 o North to the tropics around 0 o. These two extremes illustrate that climate change will have dramatic effects at the extremes of the world s ecosystems, and all ecosystems between them. The threats to these two charismatic animals should serve as warning that global climate change will probably devastate ecosystems across the whole latitude range from the tropics to the Poles. These changes could lead to the extinction of the polar bear Ursus maritimus and to the extinction of many of the 700 species of coral. Polar bears and corals are evolutionarily very different: polar bears are at the tip of one mammal branch; while corals still resemble the first modern corals that evolved about 35 million years ago. But both the bears and corals have evolved spectacularly well into their current environments, such that they are now totally dependent on these environments. The changes wrought by global climate to alter those environments will threaten their existence and could result in extinction; just a few degrees of warming will be devastating. Kent Carpenter and 34 colleagues reported in Science, in July 2008, that one third of all tropical corals are considered as immediately threatened with extinction using IUCN Red List Criteria. The proportion of corals threatened with 13

20 Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008 extinction has increased dramatically in recent decades and exceeds most terrestrial groups. Neither bears nor tropical corals will go extinct immediately; we will still be able to see some in zoos and aquaria which will symbolise the losses of these animals in the natural environment. Unlike the photo on the back cover, polar bears will not migrate to coral reefs (that can only happen with Photoshop ). Consequences of Global Climate Change for Coral Reefs The very serious threats posed by global climate change to coral reefs were confirmed when 3500 of the world s leading coral reef scientists and managers met at the 11 th International Coral Reef Symposium in Florida, in July The news from these scientists was far from encouraging. Major consequences of increasing greenhouse gases will be: zx more coral bleaching from warmer oceans; zx rising ocean acidification from more dissolved carbon dioxide (CO 2 ); zx more severe storms; and zx rising sea levels that will drown some coral reef nations. Climate change is proceeding faster than in previous ice-age transitions and coral reefs and corals are falling behind and suffering fever-high temperatures and rising acidity. There are some hopeful signs, but no single, easy remedy. Coral reefs may be the first marine ecosystem to suffer extreme damage and possible collapse from climate change. Two major, ocean-scale bleaching events hammered home the message that warming oceans associated with global climate change pose a major, and probably THE major threat to the future of coral reefs and their associated organisms around the world. The extreme El Niño/ La Niña switches in the global climate in resulted in the most extensive coral bleaching and mortality ever recorded, with approximately 16% of the world s coral reefs being effectively destroyed (approximately three quarters of these have subsequently recovered). Coral losses were greater than any in recorded history because 1000 year old corals were killed. And in 2005 many coral reefs of the wider Caribbean were devastated when a series of major hot-spots developed during the northern summer of There was extensive coral bleaching (experts quoted in the regional chapters report more than 50% bleaching with half of these corals dead soon after or due to coral diseases striking the weakened corals in 2006); 2005 was a record hurricane year, which also resulted in considerable coral reef losses. Since 1998, many coral reefs of the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific have shown remarkable recoveries in coral cover. For example, the Chagos Archipelago, some outer islands of Seychelles, the Maldives, Bar Reef on Sri Lanka, and Palau now have corals at levels approaching pre-1998 cover. The major questions are whether the 1998 and 2005 events were singular events or harbingers of more doom in the future. Sadly, the evidence and predictions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report indicate that similar destructive events are certainly more probable as the world s climate heats up. NOAA satellites reveal tropical oceans have warmed at a significantly faster rate during the last 10 years (see p. 35), suggesting that there are only 8 10 years left to turn the tide because, if atmospheric CO 2 concentrations reach 450 ppm, seawater will become more acidic, thereby threatening the existence of coral reefs as we know them. Healthy and resilient coral reefs can respond vigorously to damage; but climate change stresses are eroding that resilience. For example, ocean acidification will prevent juvenile corals settling and make adults more fragile (see p. 29). 14