NATURAL GAS IN COLOMBIA

Transcription

1 NATURAL GAS IN COLOMBIA Diana Alejandra Franco Díaz January 30, Natural Gas 1

2 15 years since the Natural Gas Mass Consumption Plan started Colombia is the 7th country in the world with more vehicles NGV (3rd in Latin America). Colombia faces a problem of natural gas supply in the short term Natural Gas 2

3 Content About Colombia Historical development of natural gas in Colombia The Structure The Gas Market What about the future? Conclusions Natural Gas 3

4 About Colombia Natural Gas 4

5 About Colombia Bogotá Officially: The Republic of Colombia Population: (estimate at 2008) Total area: km2, where km2 are continental area Capital and largest city: Bogotá GDP (Nominal): million USD/year Per capita: USD/ year Natural Gas 5

6 Historical Development of Natural Gas Natural Gas 6

7 Source: UPME 70`s : Beginnings ( ) First Gas Pipeline Ballena Barranquilla- Cartagena : First residential users. 1978: Pipeline Dina Neiva. Oil and Gas are discovered in Apiay (Meta) 80`s : 1986: First energy policy: "Natural gas for change 1988: First pipeline to Bogotá. Apiay-Villavicencio-Bogotá 1989: Cusiana is discovered Natural Gas 7

8 Developing the structure ( ) Natural Gas Mass Consumption Plan: It defines guidelines in order that Ecopetrol leads the main network construction and for the development of the regulatory frame of the industry. Law 142: It defines the legal framework for domiciliary public services. The Regulatory Commission of Energy and Gas (CREG) is created. - Ecopetrol connects major fields with the places of consumption (more than 2000Km). - The Colombian Company of Gas (ECOGAS) is created and Ecopetrol stops assuming the responsibility of executing the Mass Consumption Plan in a centralized form Begins the process of privatization of gas companies The National Hydrocarbons Agency (ANH) is stablished Natural Gas 8

9 Users. 40% of the total population. NG is present in 22 of the 32 departments of Colombia Km of the Colombian gas transportation network. Capitalization of Ecopetrol (Sale of 20% of Shares). Alienation of Ecogas to TGI S.A. ESP. At the end of Natural Gas 9

10 The Structure Production Transporters Natural Gas 10

11 The Structure Today Explorers (over 44) Distributors (over 23) Residential NGV Industrial Thermoelectricity Producers (12) Transporters (8) Natural Gas 11

12 TJD Production Tera Joule per Day (10^12) Natural gas supply by region Guajira Cusiana Center Güepajé Guajira - 62% (non associated gas) ChevronTexaco Ecopetrol Regulated Prices (associated to oil price) = 4,98 USD/MBTU (4,72USD/GJ) August 08 January 09 Data source: UPME Cusiana 30% (associated to oil production) BP Ecopetrol Free Prices (with CREG supervision) = Auction: 3,71 6,02 USD/ MBTU (3,52-5,71USD/GJ) Data source: Ecopetrol Natural Gas 12

13 Transporters TGI (97,91% of EEB) 3702Km PROMIGAS ( 52,1% of AEI) 2039Km 94% Source: EEB Natural Gas 13

14 The Gas Market Reserves Production Consumption Natural Gas 14

15 Cusiana, Cupiagüa Proved Reserves Billion cubic meter (10^9) Developed/ non developed ,05 100% ,60 73% 27% Total 2000 Developed Non developed ,60 128,53 75,07 15,55 100% 73% 27% 8% more Natural Gas Data source: UPME 15 Bcm %

16 Production Billion cubic meter (10^9) The West Pipeline entered in operation 99 Recession 2003: Cusiana increased its capacity with Cusiana III 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Guajira increased its capacity with Chuchupa II Data source: UPME, BP Natural Gas 16

17 Consumption by sector 671 Tera Joule per Day (10^12) Data source: UPME Natural gas vehicle Residential Petrochemistry Ecopetrol Industry % by sector Thermoelectricity In the last years the industrial consumption and the natural gas vehicle have boosted the internal market, also in the residential sector the growth has been important. NGV Residential PC Ecopetrol Industry TE 9% 17% 2% 11% 41% 20% Natural Gas 17

18 Natural Gas Vehicle 400 VAT exemption for kits Regulation of technical standards Release in fuel prices Filling EDS Stations Birth and development Growth Vehicles Vehículos FS EDS Conv. Cumulative Acum conversion 0 Source: Gazel Natural Gas 18

19 Gasoline: 7648 $*/gal 0,90 USD/liter A vehicle can travel about 11 Km/liter Of gasoline, which leads to a ratio of: 0,082 USD/ Km Natural Gas Vehicle Prices in Bogotá Fuel subsidies (%) 2% 2% 3% 5% 7% 46% 49% 54% 53% 54% NGV: 1392 $*/m3 0,62 USD/m3 A vehicle can travel about 12,43 Km/m3 of NGV, which leads to a ratio of: 0,050 USD/ Km 52% 48% 42% 42% 39% Gasolinas Diesel GNV Source: Gazel *1 USD = $ 2245, 28 (Colombian Pesos) (@ ) Natural Gas 19

20 What about the future? Natural Gas 20

21 GBTUd GBTUd Balance P10, con importaciones en la base Interior La Creciente Guajira Importación Demanda Balance P90, con importaciones en la base Interior La Creciente Guajira Importación Demanda GBTUd Forecast Source: UPME Natural Gas Balance P50, con importaciones en la base Interior La Creciente Guajira Importación Demanda GBTUD = 1,055 TJD

22 Options Short Term: - Increase self production - Imports from Venezuela: contracts with clauses are required to respect strict penalties for failure to deliver agreed. Long term: - Gas storage: Cover the peak consumption, however is not the solution to the problem of shortage. - LNG - gasification plant: It requires guarantees for the use of close to 100% capacity to be economically viable. - Energy integration Natural Gas 22

23 Interconnection Node Ecopetrol Chevron- Pdvsa 1. Exports to Venezuela (MCMD) 2008: 1,4 2009/10: 4,2 2011: 2,8 2. Imports from Venezuela : Beggins with 0,5 MCMD Source: MME Natural Gas 23

24 Conclusions Since the Natural Gas Mass Consumption Plan started, the natural gas has increased its participation in the energy market from 6.8% in 1998 to 16.8% in 2007 and will continue to growing. The structure of the industry is concentrated: 2 major producers and 2 large transporters. Reliability in providing the service highly dependent on events in transport and production. The market is concentrated in a few regions. It is required to find new fields and expand the production capacity of existing ones. It is required to strengthen the infrastructure of natural gas transmission, storage and development of import facilities Natural Gas 24

25 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Natural Gas 25

26 References: British Petroleum. Statistical Review of World Energy Available online at: Colombia. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia.,from Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas CREG. Official web site: Ecopetrol. Official web site: El Mercado del gas natural en Colombia. Quito Ecuador. June Available online at: Empresa Colombiana de Gas (ECOGAS). Official web site: Empresa de energía de Bogotá S.A. ESP (EEB S.A ESP). Official Web site: Gazel Colombia. Official Web Site: Kozulj Roberto, (2007). El abastecimiento de gas natural en Colombia: confiabilidad, alternativas de suministro y posibles impactos sobre la política energética. Observatorio Colombiano de Energía, Publication No. 28. Colombia. Available online at: Natural Gas 26

27 References: Ministerio de Minas y Energía (Minminas MME). Memorias al Congreso Available online at: d_subcategoria=496 Ministerio de Minas y Energía (Minminas) UPME Plan Energético Nacional. Contexto y Estrategias Bogotá, Colombia. Available online at: Boletín Estadístico, de Minas y Energía Bogotá, Colombia. Available online at: Boletín Estadístico, de Minas y Energía Bogotá, Colombia. Available online at: Ministerio de Minas y Energía Official Web site: Naturgas. Congreso Anual de Naturgas Available online at: Naturgas. Disponibilidad futura del gas en Colombia, Balance Probabilístico de Gas Natural October Available online at: Ospina Eduardo. Plan de Masificación del Gas: evaluación y Perspectivas Available online at: %20de%20masificacion%20del%20gas%20evaluacion%20y%20perspectivas.pdf Natural Gas 27

28 References: Promigas S.A ESP. Official Web site: Transportadora de gas del interior S.A. ESP (TGI S.A. ESP). Official web site: Unidad de Planeación Minero-Energética (UPME). Official Web site: Natural Gas 28