Credit Opinion: Banco Cooperativo Español, S.A.

Transcription

1 Credit Opinion: Banco Cooperativo Español, S.A. Global Credit Research - 22 Jun 2015 Madrid, Spain Ratings Category Moody's Rating Outlook Stable Bank Deposits Ba1/NP Baseline Credit Assessment ba2 Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba1 Contacts Analyst Phone Maria Vinuela/Madrid Alberto Postigo/Madrid Carola Schuler/Frankfurt am Main Key Indicators Banco Cooperativo Espanol, S.A. (Consolidated Financials)[1] [2]12-14 [3]12-13 [3]12-12 [3]12-11 [3]12-10 Avg. Total Assets (EUR million) Total Assets (USD million) 20, , , , ,399.5 [4] , , , , ,951.4 [4]14.8 Tangible Common Equity (USD million) Tangible Common Equity (EUR million) [4]4.6 [4]7.3 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) [5]0.6 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss [6]9.4 [5]1.2 Reserve) (%) Net Interest Margin (%) [5]0.3 PPI / Average RWA (%) [6] [5] [5]36.2 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) Cost / Income Ratio (%) Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) [5] [5]92.8 Gross Loans / Total Deposits (%) Source: Moody's 23.4 [5]124.5 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on IFRS reporting periods [5] IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation [6] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in & IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation Opinion SUMMARY RATING RATIONALE On 17 June 2015, we upgraded Banco Cooperativo Español S.A.'s (BCE) deposit rating to Ba1 from Ba2 and its standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) to ba2 from ba3. The bank's short-term rating was affirmed at Not-

2 Prime. The rating action was prompted by changes arising from the implementation of Moody's new methodology for rating banks globally, and specifically our advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis. Furthermore, Moody's has assigned a Counterparty Risk Assessment (CR Assessment) of Baa2 (cr)/prime-2 (cr) to BCE. BCE is owned by the 38 rural co-operatives amalgamated under the Asociacion Espanola de Cajas Rurales (AECR; unrated) and by DZ Bank (deposits/senior unsecured A1 on review for upgrade, BCA baa2), based in Germany (Aaa stable). BCE's purpose is to provide these rural co-operatives - which account for around 1.6% of Spain's financial system - with a cost-effective comprehensive range of financial services. BCE's BCA of ba2 reflects(1) the bank's moderate risk profile - albeit its exposure to the Spanish sovereign debt is high, encompassing concentration and some market risk; and (2) its adequate liquidity profile. Factors constraining the BCA are the bank's very high leverage because of its role as service provider and its modest but stable profitability levels. We believe there is a high probability of support from the rural co-operatives associated under the AECR, given BCE's role as a central treasury provider for this group of entities. As a result of our affiliate support assessment, BCE's adjusted BCA is ba1, one notch above the bank's BCA. BCE'S RATING IS DETERMINED BY ITS MACRO PROFILE OF `MODERATE+' BCE is a domestic bank focused on the Spanish market and has a Macro Profile score of `Moderate+'. Spanish banks operate in a large, diversified and affluent economy, which is gradually recovering from the recession of The speed of the recovery is constrained primarily by the high levels of debt remaining in all sectors of the economy. Spain's (Baa2 positive) institutional strength is very high, reflecting the structural reforms of the past two years; and the country displays moderate susceptibility to event risk. The Macro Profile score also incorporates the improvement in funding conditions for financial institutions. Rating Drivers - Moderate risk profile, although exposure to Spanish sovereign debt is high, encompassing concentration and some market risk - High capital ratios do not capture the risks inherent in BCE's activity - Historically modest but stable profitability indicators - Adequate liquidity profile; sizeable repo activity to boost profitability Rating Outlook The upgrade of BCE's long-term deposit rating was prompted by changes arising from the implementation of Moody's new methodology and our advanced Loss Given Failure analysis (LGF), which applies to BCE given that it is subject to an operational resolution regime under the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD). BCE's long-term deposit ratings carry a stable outlook, reflecting our expectations that the expected recovery of the Spanish economy will support the stabilisation of the bank's financial fundamentals and that of the rural cooperatives sector. What Could Change the Rating - Up Upward pressure could be exerted on BCE's standalone BCA if (1) the performance of Spanish rural cooperatives amalgamated under the AECR improves significantly; and/or (2) BCE reduces its very high leverage and increases its capital base relative to total assets. Any change to the BCA would likely also affect the deposit rating, as it is linked to the standalone BCA. BCE's deposit rating could also change due to changes in the loss-given failure faced by the bank's deposits. What Could Change the Rating - Down Downward pressure on BCE's standalone BCA could be driven by (1) significant further deterioration in the credit profile of the rural co-operatives; (2) the bank's inability to maintain its role as a primary service provider for the

3 rural co-operatives; (3) any worsening in operating conditions beyond our current expectations; and (4) a higher risk profile, which could stem from aggressive new lending activities, or from other market or credit activities outside of BCE's intermediary role for the rural co-operatives. DETAILED RATING CONSIDERATIONS MODERATE RISK PROFILE, ALTHOUGH EXPOSURE TO SPANISH SOVEREIGN DEBT IS HIGH BCE's problem loans-to-gross loans ratio has historically been negligible, standing at 0.9% at end-december 2014, compared to 1.6% a year earlier. However, we note that BCE's loan book accounts for only 5% of its total assets, and therefore we believe that the expected deterioration in this loan portfolio is not a major threat for the entity. In addition to the loan book, BCE owns a securities portfolio valued at EUR7.2 billion as at end-december 2014 comprising: (1) EUR6.6 billion public sector portfolio, mostly composed of Spanish sovereign debt; and (2) EUR0.6 billion private sector portfolio, including EUR192 million of government-guaranteed debt and EUR180 million exposure to Spain's Official Credit Institute (Instituto de Credito Oficial or ICO). This securities portfolio is highly liquid, and has an average duration of 1.7 (1.77 for the Spanish sovereign debt portfolio). Furthermore, we note that out of the total securities portfolio, EUR2.9 billion (or 40%) was invested on behalf of the rural co-operatives (using the excess liquidity these entities had previously deposited in BCE), and that the credit risk arising from these investments is jointly and several guaranteed by these rural co-operatives. The entity has also entered into a number of interest rate swaps (IRSs) which cover the interest rate risk of an additional EUR2.8 billion or 39% of the portfolio. However, we note that BCE's exposure to Spanish sovereign debt, which comprises the bulk of the securities portfolio, still encompasses concentration and some market risk for the bank. Although BCE's activity has traditionally been that of investing the excess liquidity of its member banks into interbank deposits and fixed-income debt, the bank has also been actively issuing government-backed debt and accessing European Central Bank (ECB) funding on behalf of its member banks in the recent past, which materially increased BCE's exposure to the rural co-operatives sector. However, we note that the bank has recently amortised all outstanding government guaranteed debt, and that the amount of ECB funding borrowed on behalf of the rural co-operatives has also been reduced, thereby diminishing BCE's exposure to the rural cooperatives sector. We also note that the counterparty risk arising from this activity is mitigated by the securities discounted at the ECB. We have assigned an Asset Risk score of baa3 to BCE, four notches below its a2 macro adjusted score. This adjustment reflects the concentration and market risk associated to the bank's high exposure to Spanish sovereign debt. HIGH CAPITAL RATIOS DO NOT CAPTURE THE RISKS INHERENT IN BCE'S ACTIVITY At end-december 2014, BCE's tangible common equity (TCE)-to-risk-weighted assets (RWA) ratio stood at 9.4%. However, its leverage ratio (defined as TCE as a percentage of total assets) stood at a low 1.9% (December 2013: 1.4%), and the ratio of risk-weighted assets to total assets was 10.4%, revealing the low risk of the bank's assets. Although we view positively that BCE's high leverage has been reduced over the past year, we still believe that the bank's capital ratios do not adequately capture the risks inherent in its activity, such as operational, reputational and performance risks. This high leverage justifies BCE's Capital score of b3, which is the major constraint for the bank's BCA. In terms of regulatory ratios, BCE reported a phased-in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 16.1% at end- December HISTORICALLY MODEST BUT STABLE PROFITABILITY INDICATORS BCE's earnings are relatively stable and its margins are very narrow, given that the bank's objective is to act as an all-round service provider to the rural co-operatives, rather than to maximise profits. However, BCE's profitability indicators have improved since 2012 on the back of increased returns arising from the bank's securities portfolio. At end-december 2014, the bank reported a net profit of EUR46 million (December 2012: EUR22 million), which represented 0.2% of the bank's tangible banking assets. We note that BCE's earnings are currently boosted by non-recurring gains arising from the securities carry trade, and we expect the bank to return to its normalised modest profitability levels of around 0.1% net income to tangible banking assets. BCE's Profitability score of b2 already reflects this normalised profitability ratio.

4 ADEQUATE LIQUIDITY PROFILE; SIZEABLE REPO ACTIVITY TO BOOST PROFITABILITY Given the nature of BCE's assets and liabilities, its balance sheet is highly liquid. The bank has traditionally taken `sight deposits' of member banks and invested them in short-term assets. In recent years, BCE has also issued government-guaranteed debt and accessed ECB funding on behalf of its member banks. Nonetheless, we note that the credit risk associated with these activities is assumed by member banks. If we exclude this activity performed on behalf of the member banks (which is the bulk of BCE's activity), market funding represents 67% of BCE's tangible banking assets at end-december 2014, which is equivalent to a macroadjusted score of caa2. BCE's market funding is primarily composed of ECB funding and other repos that the entity uses for its carry trade activity to boost profitability. We have assigned a score of b2 to Funding Structure, three notches above the macro-adjusted score of caa2, reflecting our assessment that BCE is not dependent on this market funding to perform its activity. BCE's liquid banking assets accounted for 80.5% of its tangible banking assets at end-december 2014, which is equivalent to a Liquid Resources score of a1. According to our liquidity stress test, the bank displays a net positive funding gap (as of end December 2014) in the event that capital markets remained closed for a period of one year. Our stress test includes interbank borrowings, committed undrawn credit lines and the re-issuance of maturing covered bonds, but excludes the liquidity arising from a reduction in its commercial gap. Notching Considerations AFFILIATE SUPPORT We believe there is a high probability of support from the rural co-operatives associated under the AECR, given BCE's role as a central treasury provider for this group of entities. As a result of our affiliate support assessment, BCE's adjusted BCA is ba1, one notch above the bank's BCA. LOSS GIVEN FAILURE BCE is subject to the EU Bank Resolution and Recovery Directive (BRRD), which we consider to be an Operational Resolution Regime. Accordingly, we apply mostly its standard assumptions. These assumptions include a residual tangible common equity of 3%, losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% runoff in "junior" wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits and assign a 25% probability to deposits being preferred to senior unsecured debt. Because we assume that the BCE's deposit base is essentially wholesale in nature, we consider a proportion of 80% of junior deposits above the estimated EU-wide average of 26%. For BCE's deposits, our Loss-Given Failure (LGF) analysis considers the likely impact on loss-given-failure of the combination of its own volume and subordination. Our LGF analysis indicates a moderate loss-given-failure for deposits, leads us to position BCE's Preliminary Rating Assessments (PRA) at the same level as the Adjusted BCA. Please refer to the Loss Given Failure and Government Support table at the bottom of the scorecard. COUNTERPARTY RISK ASSESSMENT CR Assessments are opinions of how counterparty obligations are likely to be treated if a bank fails and are distinct from debt and deposit ratings in that they (1) consider only the risk of default rather than both the likelihood of default and the expected financial loss suffered in the event of default and (2) apply to counterparty obligations and contractual commitments rather than debt or deposit instruments. The CR assessment is an opinion of the counterparty risk related to a bank's covered bonds, contractual performance obligations (servicing), derivatives (e.g., swaps), letters of credit, guarantees and liquidity facilities. BCE's CR Assessment is positioned at Baa2 (cr). The CR Assessment is positioned two notches above the Adjusted BCA of ba1, based on the cushion against default provided to the senior obligations represented by the CR Assessment by subordinated instruments amounting to 9% of Tangible Banking Assets. The main difference with our Advanced LGF approach used to determine instrument ratings is that the CR Assessment captures the probability of default on certain senior obligations, rather than expected loss, therefore we focus purely on subordination and take no account of the volume of the instrument class. About Moody's Bank Scorecard

5 Our Scorecard is designed to capture, express and explain in summary form our Rating Committee's judgment. When read in conjunction with our research, a fulsome presentation of our judgment is expressed. As a result, the output of our Scorecard may materially differ from that suggested by raw data alone (though it has been calibrated to avoid the frequent need for strong divergence). The Scorecard output and the individual scores are discussed in rating committees and may be adjusted up or down to reflect conditions specific to each rated entity. Rating Factors Banco Cooperativo Español, S.A. Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Moderate + Financial Profile Factor Historic Ratio Macro Adjusted Score Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 0.9% a2 ba2 Sector concentration Capital TCE / RWA 9.4% ba3 ba3 Nominal leverage Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets 0.2% b2 b2 Return on assets Combined Solvency Score ba1 ba3 Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 94.8% caa3 b2 Market funding quality 91.5% a1 a1 Stock of liquid assets Combined Liquidity Score ba3 ba1 Financial Profile ba2 Qualitative Adjustments Adjustment Business Diversification 0 Opacity and Complexity 0 Corporate Behavior 0 Total Qualitative Adjustments 0 Sovereign or Affiliate constraint Scorecard Calculated BCA range Baa2 ba1 - ba3 Assigned BCA ba2

6 Affiliate Support notching 1 Adjusted BCA ba1 Instrument Class Loss Given Failure notching Additional notching Preliminary Rating Assessment Government Support notching Local Currency rating Foreign Currency rating Deposits 0 0 ba1 0 Ba1 Ba1 This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history Moody s Corporation, Moody s Investors Service, Inc., Moody s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, MOODY S ). All rights reserved. CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. AND ITS RATINGS AFFILIATES ( MIS ) ARE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY S ( MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ) MAY INCLUDE MOODY S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. MOODY S PUBLICATIONS MAY ALSO INCLUDE QUANTITATIVE MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES OF CREDIT RISK AND RELATED OPINIONS OR COMMENTARY PUBLISHED BY MOODY S ANALYTICS, INC. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL, WITH DUE CARE, MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE. MOODY S CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO CONSIDER MOODY S CREDIT RATINGS OR MOODY S PUBLICATIONS IN MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the

7 information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process or in preparing the Moody s Publications. To the extent permitted by law, MOODY S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability to any person or entity for any indirect, special, consequential, or incidental losses or damages whatsoever arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information, even if MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers is advised in advance of the possibility of such losses or damages, including but not limited to: (a) any loss of present or prospective profits or (b) any loss or damage arising where the relevant financial instrument is not the subject of a particular credit rating assigned by MOODY S. To the extent permitted by law, MOODY S and its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors and suppliers disclaim liability for any direct or compensatory losses or damages caused to any person or entity, including but not limited to by any negligence (but excluding fraud, willful misconduct or any other type of liability that, for the avoidance of doubt, by law cannot be excluded) on the part of, or any contingency within or beyond the control of, MOODY S or any of its directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors or suppliers, arising from or in connection with the information contained herein or the use of or inability to use any such information. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Moody s Investors Service, Inc., a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody s Corporation ( MCO ), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by Moody s Investors Service, Inc. have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to Moody s Investors Service, Inc. for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS s ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at under the heading Investor Relations Corporate Governance Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy. For Australia only: Any publication into Australia of this document is pursuant to the Australian Financial Services License of MOODY S affiliate, Moody s Investors Service Pty Limited ABN AFSL and/or Moody s Analytics Australia Pty Ltd ABN AFSL (as applicable). This document is intended to be provided only to wholesale clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a wholesale client and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to retail clients within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act MOODY S credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness of a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail clients. It would be dangerous for retail clients to make any investment decision based on MOODY S credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser. For Japan only: MOODY'S Japan K.K. ( MJKK ) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MOODY'S Group Japan G.K., which is wholly-owned by Moody s Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO. Moody s SF Japan K.K. ( MSFJ ) is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of MJKK. MSFJ is not a Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization ( NRSRO ). Therefore, credit ratings assigned by MSFJ are Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings. Non-NRSRO Credit Ratings are assigned by an entity that is not a NRSRO and, consequently, the rated obligation will not qualify for certain types of treatment under U.S. laws. MJKK and MSFJ are credit rating agencies registered with the Japan Financial Services Agency and their registration numbers are FSA Commissioner (Ratings) No. 2 and 3 respectively. MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) hereby disclose that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal

8 applicable) have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MJKK or MSFJ (as applicable) for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from JPY200,000 to approximately JPY350,000,000. MJKK and MSFJ also maintain policies and procedures to address Japanese regulatory requirements.