International Energy Outlook 2016

Transcription

1 International Energy Outlook 216 For Center on Global Energy Policy Columbia University New York, NY By Angelina LaRose U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Key findings in the IEO216 Reference case World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 212 to 629 quadrillion Btu in 22 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 24, a 48% increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase. The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 24. Renewable energy is the world s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global total in 212 to 6% in 24. Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy use in 24. 2

3 Key findings in the IEO216 Reference case (continued) Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in the mid-term as China shifts from energy-intensive industries to services and worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify. By 23, natural gas surpasses coal as the world s second largest energy source. In 212, coal provided 4% of the world s total net electricity generation. By 24, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation. With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 212 to 36 billion metric tons in 22 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 24, a 34% increase. 3

4 Many global issues increase uncertainty Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others) Implementation and strength of climate policies Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand) Unrest in oil producing countries OPEC production Future of nuclear generating capacity 4

5 Global outlook 5

6 Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend average annual percent change (212 4) percent per year 6 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population U.S. OECD Europe Japan South Korea China India Brazil Middle East Africa Russia 6

7 Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal by 23, and oil maintains its leading share world energy consumption quadrillion Btu 25 History Share of total energy Natural gas 33% 28% 23% 212 Petroleum and other liquid fuels Projections 5 12% Nuclear 6% 4% Coal Renewables with U.S. CPP Coal with U.S. CPP Renewables and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 215) 3% 26% 22% 22% 17% 16% 7

8 As total energy consumption grows, shares by end-use sector remain relatively unchanged world delivered energy consumption by end-use sector quadrillion Btu 625 Share of total delivered energy % Industrial 54% % 26% Transportation 2% 21% Buildings 8

9 Economic growth drives electricity demand; electricity use grows at a faster rate than other delivered energy, but slower than GDP world GDP and net electricity generation percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) History 212 Projections Gross domestic product Electricity generation

10 Non-OECD nations drive the increase in total energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 212 Projections Share of total energy 57% Non-OECD 65% 35% 2 43% OECD

11 Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu Non-OECD Asia OECD Other non-oecd OECD

12 Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 24 in both OECD and non-oecd; non-oecd CO2/E rose over 2 12 carbon intensity of energy consumption, kilograms CO2 per million Btu 7 History 212 Projections 6 Non-OECD OECD

13 Liquid fuels markets 13

14 Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-oecd regions especially Asia world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day Non-OECD Asia Middle East Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Africa OECD Americas OECD Asia OECD Europe

15 Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel growth is largely outside the OECD passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for selected country groupings , 1, OECD 8, 6, China 4, 2, Africa India $ $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, Other non-oecd Asia 15

16 Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-opec producers increase through 24 world production of petroleum and other liquid fuels million barrels per day 6 History 212 Projections Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate OPEC crude and lease condensate 2 1 Other liquids

17 The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain, and biofuels million barrels per day Natural gas plant liquids Refinery gain Biofuels Coal-to-liquids Gas-to-liquids

18 Natural gas markets 18

19 Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet OECD Non-OECD

20 Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the largest increases in natural gas production world change in natural gas production, trillion cubic feet Non-OECD Asia China Other Middle East OECD Americas Iran United States Saudi Arabia Other Other Other non-oecd Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Russia Other Other OECD

21 Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production by type trillion cubic feet 4 China Canada United States 3 Shale gas Tight gas Coalbed methane Other gas Note: Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as conventional production. 21

22 Electricity markets 22

23 GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time world GDP and net electricity generation percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 9 History 212 Projections 7 5 Non-OECD GDP 3 OECD GDP Non-OECD electricity 1 OECD electricity

24 Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly the same amount of global net electricity generation in 24 world net electricity generation by source trillion kilowatthours Nuclear Other renewables Hydropower Natural gas Coal Liquids 24

25 Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year) world net electricity generation from renewable energy by source trillion kilowatthours Biomass, waste, and tide/wave/ocean Geothermal Solar Wind 4 2 Hydropower

26 Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-oecd regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth world installed nuclear capacity by region gigawatts OECD Europe OECD Americas OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia China India Other non-oecd Asia Rest of world

27 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions 27

28 Coal remains the world s largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions, but by 24 its share declines to 38% world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons 5 History 212 Projections % Coal 2 2% Natural gas 1 36% Liquid fuels Share of total 38% 26% 36%

29 Of the world s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to continue to increase throughout the projection coal consumption in the US, China, and India quadrillion Btu History 212 Projections 1 China United States India United States with CPP and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 215) 29

30 Non-OECD Asia will account for about 6% of the world increase in energy-related CO2 emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons 25 2 History OECD Other non-oecd Non-OECD Asia Projections

31 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Annual Energy Outlook Short-Term Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review Today in Energy State Energy Profiles Drilling Productivity Report International Energy Portal 31

32 Supplementary Slides Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy 32

33 Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day Middle East North Africa West Africa South America 33

34 Increases to non-opec oil supplies outside the United States are primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan non-opec crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupings million barrels per day Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe 34

35 Liquefaction capacity additions over the time period will increase global capacity by over 3% LNG capacity additions billion cubic feet per day Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States Note: Capacity additions in include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-up Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press 35

36 Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 24 varies widely renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 24 billion kilowatthours 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 Biomass, waste, and tide/wave/ocean Solar Wind 1, Geothermal 5 Hydropower Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China 36