Autonomy Trading and Financial Statistics
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1 Autonomy Trading and Financial Statistics
2 Autonomy Historical Trading Performance January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 Price $ $32.01 Autonomy Trading Overview Price Average Spot Average Volume (000's) Current / $ Last 10 Days / / $ ,224 Last 30 Days / / Last 60 Days / / ,221 Last 120 Days / / ,336 LTM / / ,215 LTM High / LTM Low / Note: Based on trading days. Volume (000 s) 20,000 15, $ , $ $8.00 5, Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 2 Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
3 Autonomy Recent Trading Performance January 4, 2010 to January 24, 2011 Price $32.01 Feb 3, 2010: Reported full year 2009 results in line with analyst expectations. Stock price reaction: +1% Apr 21, 2010: Reported Q results in line with analyst consensus. Stock price reaction: +0% Jul 22, 2010: Reported Q results at the top end of guidance and slightly below consensus, guiding to a 4-7% q/q fall in Q3 revenues. Stock price reaction: (9%) Oct 6, 2010: Announced expectations that Q3 revenues would be disappointing. Stock price reaction: (16%) Volume (000 s) 20, $ , $ $22.41 Feb 10, 2010: Announced the offering of 500 ($800MM) worth of 3.25% convertible bonds due 2015, convertible at strike price of ($33.03). Stock price reaction: (6%) Oct 19, 2010: Announced Q results and reaffirms FY11 guidance. Stock price reaction: +5% Nov 24, 2010: Announced ongoing work on a potential acquisition. Stock price reaction: (6%) 10,000 5, Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
4 Recent Trading Volume At Various Prices January 4, 2010 to January 24, Volume (MM) Trading Statistics at Various Prices (Based on Closing Prices) Min Range: $19.21 $20.01 $20.81 $21.61 $22.41 $23.21 $24.01 $24.81 $25.61 $26.41 $27.21 $28.01 $28.81 $29.61 $30.41 $31.21 $32.01 Max Range: $20.01 $20.81 $21.61 $22.41 $23.21 $24.01 $24.81 $25.61 $26.41 $27.21 $28.01 $28.81 $29.61 $30.41 $31.21 $32.01 $32.81 Volume (MM) % of Total 0% 2% 3% 4% 9% 8% 13% 15% 8% 6% 5% 8% 11% 4% 2% 1% 0% % of Implied Float (1) 0% 3% 5% 7% 14% 12% 18% 22% 12% 9% 8% 11% 15% 6% 3% 2% 0% Cumulative Volume % Volume At Or Below Range 0% 2% 5% 10% 19% 27% 40% 54% 63% 69% 75% 82% 93% 97% 99% 100% 100% Volume / Implied Float (1) 0.0x 0.0x 0.1x 0.1x 0.3x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 0.9x 1.0x 1.1x 1.2x 1.4x 1.4x 1.5x 1.5x 1.5x Days % of Total Days 0% 1% 3% 4% 7% 8% 11% 13% 6% 6% 6% 9% 14% 7% 4% 1% 0% Cumulative Days % Days At Or Below Range 0% 1% 3% 7% 14% 22% 34% 47% 53% 59% 65% 74% 88% 95% 99% 100% 100% Source: CapitalIQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of (1) Assumes 220MM free float shares based on Capital IQ Current Trading Range: / $
5 NTM Revenue Multiples Over Time January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 Enterprise Value NTM Rev 11.0x 10.0x NTM Revenue Multiples Selected Multiple During Entire Period Mean 5.4x 8.2x 7.1x 6.7x 6.4x 6.8x Median Max Min th Perc th Perc x 8.0x 7.0x 6.0x 75th Perc = 7.6x Mean = 6.8x Current = 6.0x 25th Perc = 5.9x 5.0x 4.0x 3.0x Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 5 Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.
6 NTM P/E Multiples Over Time January 3, 2006 to January 24, 2011 P/E 60.0x 50.0x NTM P/E Multiples Selected Multiple During Entire Period Mean 35.4x 39.5x 27.3x 19.8x 19.7x 28.2x Median Max Min th Perc th Perc x 75th Perc = 36.7x 30.0x Mean = 28.2x 20.0x 25th Perc = 19.7x Current = 19.2x 10.0x 0.0x Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 6 Source: Capital IQ; based on available consensus analyst estimates.
7 Shareholder Ownership Over Time ('000s) Company 1 Top 25 Institutional Holders Holdings (000s) Current % of Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter Ending Institution (000s) Outst. (2) Nov-10 Aug-10 May-10 Feb-10 Nov-09 Sep-09 Jun-09 Director & Related Holdings (1) 22, % 0 (250) (80) (100) TIAA-CREF 12, % 726 (438) (65) ,999 7,959 Fidelity Investments 12, % 1,825 (262) 916 (745) (705) (12,502) 0 OppenheimerFunds 12, % 88 1, (150) Schroders Investment Management 9, % 0 0 (17) (12) Legal & General Investment Management 8, % (153) 5 (315) (282) (370) (46) 308 Credit Agricole Group 7, % 4,210 1,757 (100) 547 (22) BlackRock Merrill Lynch Investment Managers 6, % (700) 5, , (111) Standard Life Investments 5, % (1,026) (108) (780) (1,714) (1,622) Lone Pine Capital 4, % (700) (783) (348) 1,209 (4,586) 9,994 0 BlackRock 4, % , BNP Paribas 3, % (389) 1, Ignis Asset Management 2, % (49) (186) 2, (656) (8) Scottish Widows Investment Partnership 2, % (601) (117) (64) GE Asset Management 2, % 500 1, Vanguard Group 1, % Alliance Bernstein 1, % State Street Global Advisors 1, % (45) (114) 419 (570) Barclays Personal Investment Management 1, % (84) (197) Government of Singapore Investment Corporation 1, % (135) (29) ,285 0 Kuwait Investment Authority 1, % 327 (101) Societe Generale 1, % 495 (87) (69) (421) 456 (736) (557) Credit Suisse 1, % (218) 1,259 (1,958) (3,995) 5, JP Morgan % (115) 175 (346) 310 Universities Superannuation Scheme % (512) Summary Total Total Increase / (Decrease) by Quarter Top 10 Holders 101, % 4,271 7,177 (115) (244) (6,833) 2,973 8,531 Top 25 Holders 129, % 7,268 12,198 2,584 (143) (1,207) 4,261 10,117 Source: Capital IQ, UK Share Register as of 11/1/2010. (1) Includes holdings for Michael Lynch of 19,799 (8.2% of CSO) and Richard Gaunt of 2,373 (1.0% of CSO). (2) Based on 242MM shares outstanding. 7
8 Trading Statistics of Selected Companies 8 ($MM, except per share information) Trading Performance Trading Multiples Prem / (Disc) to FD Capitalization Enterprise Value / Operating Statistics Stock Price LTM LTM Equity Ent. Revenue EBITDA P/E P/E/G '10-11E CY11E LT EPS Company (FYE) 1/24/11 High Low Value Value CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E CY11E Rev Growth Op Margin Growth % Cash Autonomy (Dec.) (1) / $23.66 (25%) 16% $5,811 $5, x 5.9x 13.4x 11.3x 21.7x 18.6x 1.1x 11% 44% 17% $1,028 Selected App. Infrastructure / Data Management Software Teradata (Dec.) $45.80 (1%) 66% $7,992 $7, x 3.5x 15.2x 13.2x 25.7x 22.5x 1.8x 9% 22% 13% $741 Informatica (Dec.) (6%) 87% 4,928 4, % 27% 18% 426 TIBCO (Nov.) % 140% 4,206 4, % 26% 16% 245 Software AG (Dec.) (8%) 33% 3,979 4, % 25% 14% 148 OpenText (Jun.) (6%) 29% 2,733 2, % 28% 18% 385 Progress Software (Nov.) (3%) 60% 2,066 1, % 32% 15% 322 Qlik Technologies (Dec.) (18%) 79% 2,042 1, % 17% 52% 156 Pegasystems (Dec.) (15%) 60% 1,337 1, % 18% 24% 69 MicroStrategy (Dec.) (7%) 32% 1, % 12% 12% 184 Median (6%) 60% 3.6x 3.1x 15.2x 13.2x 29.5x 24.2x 1.1x 10% 25% 16% Mean (7%) 65% 4.4x 3.8x 21.7x 16.7x 34.8x 25.9x 1.4x 13% 23% 20% Selected Infrastructure Software VMware (Dec.) $87.73 (10%) 109% $39,024 $37, x 11.1x 40.4x 33.5x 59.1x 48.9x 2.2x 19% 29% 23% $1,629 Adobe (Dec.) (7%) 33% 17,923 16, % 37% 12% 2,468 Citrix (Dec.) (9%) 57% 12,943 11, % 27% 12% 1,591 BMC Software (Mar.) (1%) 39% 9,068 7, % 36% 15% 1,495 Red Hat (Feb.) (13%) 56% 8,414 7, % 25% 19% 1,097 Median (9%) 56% 6.1x 5.5x 19.7x 17.2x 32.1x 28.5x 2.2x 11% 29% 15% Mean (8%) 59% 7.3x 6.4x 22.4x 18.7x 36.2x 31.0x 1.9x 12% 31% 16% Selected SaaS Salesforce.com (Jan.) $ (15%) 106% $18,752 $17, x 8.6x 58.2x 45.7x 108.1x 87.9x 3.0x 23% 15% 29% $1,281 Concur (Sep.) (10%) 34% 2,803 2, % 24% 25% 637 SuccessFactors (Dec.) (12%) 86% 2,514 2, % 3% 28% 334 Taleo (Dec.) (10%) 49% 1, % 14% 24% 264 Median (11%) 67% 9.3x 7.6x 43.3x 34.1x 87.3x 71.0x 2.6x 23% 14% 26% Mean (12%) 68% 8.4x 6.8x 90.6x 61.0x 174.3x 109.3x 4.0x 23% 14% 26% Selected Tech Leaders Microsoft (Jun.) $28.38 (10%) 23% $250,678 $217, x 3.1x 7.7x 7.3x 11.9x 11.1x 0.9x 7% 40% 12% $44,173 IBM (Dec.) % 31% 205, , % 20% 12% 11,651 Google (Dec.) (4%) 40% 203, , % 49% 18% 13,651 Oracle (May.) (0%) 51% 168, , % 44% 13% 23,995 Cisco (Jul.) (23%) 11% 121,405 97, % 27% 12% 38,781 Hewlett-Packard (Oct.) (13%) 25% 109, , % 12% 12% 10,934 SAP (Dec.) (1%) 29% 65,961 67, % 31% 16% 4,730 EMC (Dec.) (4%) 43% 56,399 49, % 22% 16% 7,891 Accenture (Aug.) % 41% 35,887 32, % 14% 12% 4,204 Dell (Jan.) (22%) 18% 27,032 19, % 6% 8% 13,863 Median (4%) 30% 2.6x 2.4x 8.9x 8.0x 15.6x 13.7x 1.0x 8% 24% 12% Mean (8%) 31% 3.1x 2.8x 9.3x 8.3x 15.3x 13.4x 1.0x 9% 26% 13% Source: CapitalIQ; based on consensus estimates. Cash balances pro forma for acquisitions. (1) USD Stock Price of $ Autonomy figures converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
9 Illustrative Analysis at Various Prices ($MM, except per share amounts) Mkt Illustrative Autonomy Valuation Statistics Illustrative Share Price: $23.66 $36.81 $38.42 $40.02 $41.62 $43.22 $44.82 $46.42 $48.02 Implied Premiums Statistic Premium to Current Price / $ % 56% 62% 69% 76% 83% 89% 96% 103% Premium to Enterprise Value 3,579 / $5,728 0% 59% 67% 74% 82% 90% 97% 105% 113% Premium to LTM High Share Price / $31.61 (25%) 16% 22% 27% 32% 37% 42% 47% 52% Premium to LTM Low Share Price / $ % 81% 89% 97% 105% 112% 120% 128% 136% Premium to LTM Average Share Price / $26.38 (10%) 40% 46% 52% 58% 64% 70% 76% 82% Valuation & Multiples Fully-Diluted Equity Value (1) $5,811 $9,989 $10,428 $10,867 $11,305 $11,744 $12,182 $12,621 $13,060 Plus: Debt (2) Less: Cash (2) 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 Fully-Diluted Enterprise Value $5,728 $9,107 $9,545 $9,984 $10,422 $10,861 $11,300 $11,738 $12,177 Revenue Multiples Statistic (3) CY10E $ x 10.5x 11.0x 11.5x 12.0x 12.5x 13.0x 13.6x 14.1x CY11E EBITDA Multiples CY10E $ x 21.4x 22.4x 23.4x 24.5x 25.5x 26.5x 27.6x 28.6x CY11E Earnings Multiples CY10E $ x 33.8x 35.2x 36.7x 38.2x 39.6x 41.1x 42.6x 44.1x CY11E Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of (1) Shares outstanding based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010 and options outstanding based on Autonomy Annual Report for the period ended December 31, (2) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, Includes 500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of ($33.03). (3) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19,
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