A Study on Agri-Business Opportunities Related to Gas/Oil Activities in Lindi and Mtwara

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1 A Study on Agri-Business Opportunities Related to Gas/Oil Activities in Lindi and Mtwara Commissioned by Undertaken by Block EC. Urafiki Flats. Ubungo P.O. Box Dar es Salaam Cell; / January 2015

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS... iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... v 1.0 INTRODUCTION Background Study Objectives Study Methodology Limitations Faced Report Layout LINDI AND MTWARA PROFILES Mtwara Regional Profile Lindi Region Food Security in Lindi and Mtwara THE GAS INDUSTRY Global Overview Gas Industry in Tanzania The Need for Inclusive Gas/Oil Industry The National Capacity to Manage Gas/Oil Industry INVESTMENTS IN MTWARA AND LINDI Projects Registered by Tanzania Investment Centre Investment in Agriculture Non-Agriculture Investments The World Bank Support Efforts to Promote Investments in Lindi and Mtwara FOODSTUFFS DEMAND AND SUPPLY IN LINDI AND MTWARA Demand by Local Consumers The Chinese Consumer Segment Gas Drilling Companies Demand of Foodstuffs by Hotels and Restaurants Specialized Fresh Vegetable Suppliers Grain Millers in Lindi and Mtwara WABISOCO and Vegetable and Fruits Kiosk Operators LIKELY IMPACT OF GAS INDUSTRY ON FOREST RESOURCES Stock of Forest Resources CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Recommendations REFERENCES ANNEX I: VOLUME AND VALUE OF SHELLED CASHEW EXPORTS ANNEX II: OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION BLOCKS AND RESPECTIVE COMPANIES ANNEX III : OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION COMPANIES OPERATING IN TANZANIA ANNEX IV PROJECTED POPULATION, NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY INCOME CATEGORY ANNEX V : PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT ATTRIBUTED TO INVESTMENT IN GAS INDUSTRY LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 : Mtwara Region Administrative Units and Population in Table 2.2: List of cashew processors in Mtwara and Lindi... 5 Table 2.3: Government Relief Food Supply to Mtwara in Mt... 6 Block EC. Urafiki Flats. Morogoro Rd. Ubungo. P.O. Box D Salaam. Cell: / i

3 Table 2.5: Lindi Region: Administrative Units... 7 Table 2.4: Lindi Population Size by District in Table 2.7: Agricultural Production in Lindi in 2012/13 in Mt Table 2.6: Number of enterprises in SIDO online database by category... 8 Table 2.8 : Potential Ares for Irrigation in Lindi... 9 Table 3.1: Four Key Strategies that Companies can Use to Expand Economic Opportunity Table 4.1: Projects for Lindi and Mtwara Registered by TIC ( ) Table 4.2: Large scale crop and livestock establishments in Lindi and Mtwara (2007) Table 4.3: Summary Forecast of Mtwara Port Cargo Traffic Table 4.4: Current and future employment status of Mtwara Port Table 5.1: Projected number of households by income category - Mtwara and Lindi Municipals Table 5.2: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Mtwara Municipal in TZS million Table 5.3: Projected market size for foodstuffs for Lindi Municipal in TZS million Table 5.4: Consumer basket and value in TZS for of Chinese Segment Table 5.5: Projected employment around LNG Investment Table 5.6: Estimated demand for fresh vegetable and fruits by expatriates market Table 5.7: Weekly supplies of foodstuffs to VETA Hotel Table 5.8: Sample price difference between Mtwara and Dar es Salaam Table 5.9: Major sources of food supply for Supplier No Table 5.10: Supplier No. 2 typical supplies per week (in Kgs) Table 5.11: Foodstuffs supplied by Supplier No Table 5.13: Retail price trend for rice and maize in Lindi Municipal in 2013Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 5.12: Quantity of Paddy Processed per week by millers in Lindi (in Mt.) Table 6.1: Revenue sources for Masasi Rural District Table 6.2: Estimated demand for hardwood in Lindi and Mtwara Municipals by Households Table 7.1 : Gross Profitability Estimate for Mari culture Table 7.2: Profitability of a 4Mt/day Starch Plant LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Volume of Shelled cashew exported in Mt... 6 Figure 3.1 Long-term gas price trend in USD per MBtu( ) Figure 3.2 Main stages in exploitation of Natural Gas Figure 4.1: Satellite Map of Mahurunga Valley (Shaded) Figure 4.2 : Kitere Lake: Photo and Satellite Map Figure 4.3: Vegetable production calendar at Kitere: The Case of Tomatoes Figure 4.4: Port expansion phases: short, medium and long term plans Figure 4.5: Mtwara City Master Plan Figure 5.1: Chinese Consumer Basket by Value Figure 5.2: Employment pattern in gas industry Figure 5.3: Trend in GDP per capita for Lindi, Mtwara and National (USD/capita) Figure 5.5: Projected employment effect in the short, medium and long-term periods Figure 5.6 Retail Price of a Kilogram of maize flour in Mtwara Municipal in Figure 5.7: Profitability of vegetable business at Mtwara, Lindi and Masasi in September Block EC. Urafiki Flats. Morogoro Rd. Ubungo. P.O. Box D Salaam. Cell: / ii

4 ABBREVIATIONS AMAGRO ARI BDG Bln BRELA BTu CSR DADPs DC DESEMP DFM DRC EAC EPZ EU FAO GCLA Ha. HR HCF ICT IFC IFAD IOCS LCP LIMAS LNG MACEMP MCT MDC Mln Mt MUVI NBS NDC NFRA RAS REDD+ SADC SAUT Association of Mango Growers Agriculture Research Institute Business Development Gateway Billion Business Registrations and Licensing Agency British Thermo Unit Corporate Social Responsibility District Agriculture Development Plans District Commissioner District Economic and Social Empowerment Programme District Forest Manager Democratic Republic of Congo East African Community Export Processing Zone European Union Food and Agriculture Organization Government Chemist Laboratory Agency Hectare Human Resources Heavy Capacity Ferry Information and Communication Technology International Finance Corporation International Fund for Agricultural Development International Oil Companies Local Content Policy Lindi and Mtwara Agribusiness Support Liquefied Natural Gas Marine & Coastal Environmental Management Project Millennium Challenge Tanzania Mtwara Development Corridor Million Metric tonne Muunganisho Ujasiriamali Vijijini National Bureau of Statistics National Development Corporation National Food Reserve Agency Regional Administrative Secretary Reduce Emissions From Deforestation and Forest Degradation Southern African Development Community St. Augustine s University of Tanzania iii

5 SIDO TAKNET TANESCO TC TCCIA TCF TCP TCIMRL TFS TIC TIRDO TPA TPDC TSCP UNIDO VECO WABISOCO WB Small Industries Development Organization Tanzania (Development) Knowledge Network Tanzania Electricity Supply Company Town Council Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry & Agriculture Trillion cubic feet Trade and Competitiveness Practices Tanzania China International Mineral Resources Limited Tanzania Forest Services company Tanzania Investment Centre Tanzania Industrial Research and Development Organization Tanzania Ports Authority Tanzania Petroleum Development Company Tanzania Sustainable Cities Programme United Nations Industrial Development Organization Vredeseilanden Country Office Chama Cha Wafanyabiashara Soko Kuu Mtwara World Bank iv

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Lindi and Mtwara Agri-business Support (LIMAS) is a 5-Year Programme ( ) that supports economic development in Lindi and Mtwara Regions in line with the National Strategy for Economic Growth and Reduction of Poverty (NSGRP) or popularly known as MKUKUTA. It is funded through the support of the Government of Finland and the Government of Tanzania. One of the strategic support that LIMAS offers is to link farmers to profitable and sustainable markets and value addition. There have emerged opportunities in the Regions involving exploration and investment in natural gas, in this light LIMAS has commissioned a study to assess the market opportunities that have been triggered by activities related to gas exploration, extraction, processing, transportation and utilization. This assessment involved collection of information from as many sources as accessible including literature review, internet search especially on evolving industry trends, consultations had been made with national, regional and district officials, traders, market operators, regulatory bodies and companies that provide catering services, hotels, restaurants, etc. The analyses looked at both qualitative and quantitative data. It has attempted to project the market for food in monetary terms. The recommendations have been arrived at based on evidences in the field and elsewhere. Tanzania s economy has the potential to become a natural gas driven economy from 2020 onwards, at the time of the study already some 46 trillion cubic feet had been confirmed by leading International Oil Companies. Still many potential oil/gas blocks have not been conceded for exploration. The national strategy for gas utilization require that first the gas is used to produce electricity to meet power demand for the country, at the same time there will be investments in renewable energy sources including hydro and wind to relieve the gas so as to develop petrochemical industries. Finally surplus gas will be compressed into liquid natural gas for export. For Lindi and Mtwara, the gas industry activities have stimulated economic activities particularly in Mtwara. The impact is noticeable, for example the construction of a USD 500mln cement plant by Dangote, the construction of a gas pipeline to Dar es Salaam, construction of gas processing plants at Madimba and Msimbati, modernization of Mtwara port, the rekindled interest in Mtwara Development Corridor, influx of all important banks, etc. These are signs of a growing economy, however, there is a yawning gap between the gas economy and local economy, it is important therefore to synchronize and integrate the local economy into the modern gas economy. LIMAS and other programmes are working to integrate the local economy into the gas economy by supporting enterprises that desires to tap into the market that has resulted from the gas activities. The market opportunity offered by the gas economy to the local economy includes:- Local consumer market segment that is estimated to be worth around TZS 20 Bln at present and is to increase to about TZS 24bln in 2025 as population and income rises. The Chinese community who currently spend about TZS 1.8 bln Workers in drilling rigs whose current market size estimated at TZS 2.5bln per annum During the construction of the LNG plant demand form food may reach TZS 36.5 bln per annum The construction may take four years, if everything goes well the LNG plant should be launched around The middle and high income local consumers, the workers in rigs and the Chinese spend more money on food from livestock, poultry, cattle and fish and less on staples and vegetables. Apart from opportunities by Lindi and Mtwara urban markets, the regions can produce and market some commodities outside the country competitively. v

7 On overall, identified opportunities in Lindi and Mtwara that LIMAS should be interested to promote are:- Beef/red meat through cattle fattening and construction of modern abattoir in Lindi Mtwara to be able to meet international standards. Integrated poultry project that will harness economies of scale to be able to compete with Dar es Salaam. As roads improve transport costs become less significant in deciding the final prices, so has been the transport of eggs and chicken meat. Horticulture Lindi and Mtwara have many basins potential for irrigation, Unlike in other parts of the country there is lack of commercial investors in irrigated agriculture and horticulture in particular Production and value addition is another potential investment in Lindi and Mtwara not only for the population in the region but to feed other parts of the country as well as exports. Potential fruits are pineapple and mangoes, they could be used to produce pulp. Fishing is an industry that is neglected in Tanzania s Indian Ocean when demand for fish is rising. The emerging gas population offers a lucrative market for fish, apart from sea fishing it is possible to undertake mariculture along the sea. Cassava has raised interested of many development programmes including the Agriculture Research Institute (ARIs). Installing facilities to processing of pulses and sesame i.e. cleaning, hulling and splitting (for pulses offer good investment opportunities. vi

8 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Lindi and Mtwara Agribusiness Support LIMAS is a bilateral development project funded jointly by the Governments of Tanzania and Finland, it aims at poverty alleviation, gender equity, sustainable use of natural resources, adaptation and resilience to climate change and reduction of inequalities as central cross cutting objectives. While its primary target districts are Newala (Mtwara) and Liwale (Lindi) LIMAS also supports neighbouring Districts in Lindi and Mtwara. LIMAS interventions target support to the poor and the private sector to achieve the following: - Improve profitability of farming activities through functional market linkage, Increase volume of outputs through improved yield, and Improve farmers return on investments by adding value and increasing forest productivity from timber and other forest products including beekeeping. 1.2 Study Objectives The objectives of this market study are the following:- To identify, quantify and analyze the current and future potential effective demand from the oil/gas sector and related investment projects in Mtwara and Lindi regions for agricultural primary produce (crops and livestock) and processed foodstuff (crops and livestock). The specific agricultural commodities to be studied will depend on the food demand from the oil/gas sector and its spin off investments. To establish the most promising investment opportunities in terms of commodity chains with scenarios of local supply forecasts for the two Regions and comparison with demand scenarios. To assess how likely it is that the major current and planned investments in the two regions will impact on food and forest products demand is to take off and develop in full. To document current and planned major investments in the agribusiness sector itself by local (Governments, private, smallholders) or outside investors (check national development programmes RAS, Ministry, etc.) and the oil/gas players themselves, i.e. in relation to their Corporate Social Responsibility obligations laid down by government and document investment progress and challenges met. To elaborate on the current and planned efforts by the Regional authorities and business umbrella organisations in Mtwara and Lindi to attract and support major agribusiness investments whether from within the region, up country or even from abroad and recommend how to enhance these efforts. To profile agribusiness opportunities that would be attractive for local and other investors. 1 (59)

9 1.3 Study Methodology Overview This study is exploratory and aimed at explaining the trends and patterns of economic and to some extent social developments in Lindi and Mtwara and how the gas sector is likely to impact these trends and patterns. The work therefore involved establishing the current status of development by reviewing regional profiles from secondary and primary information, assessing the status and possible future scenario of the gas sector through interviews with key players and internet search. To establish the current and planned investment in the regions information was collected from Tanzania Investment Centre, Regional Governments, Tanzania Ports Authority, Municipal Councils, TANESCO, Tanroads, etc. Demand for foodstuffs was estimated after a limited household, hotels and market surveys Data Collection Pre-field Work: The entry activity to this assignment had been identification of key functions and respective actors, secondly gathering and analysis of information and thirdly synthesis into conclusions and recommendations. In identifying sources of information the Consultant relied primarily from the list provided by LIMAS, a limited number of respondents were identified through referral/snowball effect. Literature review and internet search helped the collection of information on the status and trend of the gas industry in Tanzania and globally, key interest in literature review had been to reinforce knowledge about the context, explore documented inclusive business models in extractive industries and confirm some assumptions on long term prospects of the sector. The list of documents revised is provided on Page 59. Field Work: It was planned that consultations should start in Dar es Salaam with key respondents, up to October 10 th, 2014 when the team left for Mtwara and Lindi, it had made consultations with the following organizations: NDC to seek information on investments being promoted in Lindi and Mtwara; TIRDO on technology and quality assurance on food (product testing); and Government Chemist Laboratory Agency (GCLA) on overall food safety in the country and procedure for accessing food testing services. Many core respondents including the Ministries of Energy and that of Agriculture, Tanzania Petroleum Development Company (TPDC), National Development Corporation (NDC) and Dar es Salaam based gas/oil companies required a more than one week appointment, the team postponed the meetings in Dar es Salaam opted to work in Lindi and Mtwara first. The activities proceeded as follows:- October 13 19: Mtwara October 20 21: Lindi October 22 23: Masasi October 24 28: Mtwara October 27 November 7 th : Dar es Salaam. Demand Side Information: The study looked at population profiles, growth trends in the regions urban areas. The study looked at population (as market segments) based on consumer preferences and purchasing pattern, a survey of 28 sampled households in Mtwara located in areas that are known to be predominantly low income, middle income and higher income to provide a weighted picture. The information supplemented by information the Business Plan prepared for the association of vegetable traders (WABISOCO) at Mtwara main market. Supply Side Information: Data collected on the supply side included long-term production trends for staple food from the Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (MAFC), National Food 2 (59)

10 Reserve Agency (NFRA), interviews with market operators and producers as well as programmes/projects supporting agriculture production in the Regions and market operations. Data Collection Tools: The study mainly used a set of guiding questions, however, for a sample of households a questionnaire was designed to assist the collection of quantitative information on the type of food consumed, quantities, frequencies, costs, etc. 1.4 Limitations Faced The assignment faced few but important limitations as outlined below:- i. Access to International Oil Companies (IOCS) to collect information on investments and other elements has been difficult as none accepted our request for interviews. We managed to collect some documents at the respective offices that provided much of the information we had planned to collect from interviews, also we are of the view that the information gathered from TPDC and MEM is able to provide a reasonably reliable picture. ii. The Regional Bureau of Statistics were expected to provide information on population growth rates for the respective Municipal Councils, the only rates available are for regional level, the Managers indicated that detailed analyses that could have provided growth rates at District level are yet to be done. iii. The Regional NBS offices were supposed to provide information on list of medium and large scale farmers and industries but such information has not been compiled, actually they have just finished listing. The Regional Offices however confirmed that apart from cashew there are limited industrial activities in the two regions. iv. Mtwara and Lindi Regional Offices have not updated their regional profiles hence availability of up to date data has been a challenge. v. Since the study covered very diverse sources of information, there had been a trade-off between details and breadth. 1.5 Report Layout This report has 8 Chapters, Chapter 1 as may have been noted hitherto is an introduction. Chapter 2 looks at the profiles of Lindi and Mtwara to provide the context of the study area. Chapter 3 covers the context of the Gas industry globally and in Tanzania. Chapter 4 reviews various investments planned for Lindi and Mtwara. The assessment of demand for foodstuffs in the study regions is provided in Chapter 5 while Chapter 6 reviews briefly the likely impact of gas economy on demand for hardwood timber. Lastly Chapter 7 summarizes findings and provides recommendations. 3 (59)

11 2. LINDI AND MTWARA PROFILES 2.1 Mtwara Regional Profile Geography Mtwara Region lies between longitudes 38 and 40 East of Greenwich and between 10 and 11 latitudes South of the Equator. River Ruvuma forms the Southern border with Mozambique, on the West side is Tunduru District (Ruvuma Region) and Lindi on the North. It has an area of 16,720km 2 of which 85% is suitable for agriculture, human settlements and livestock keeping. Soils are of coastal sedimentary in nature, they are well drained, sandy with low moisture holding capacity. This type of soils stretches about 120kms towards Makonde Plateau in Newala. Better soils are found in the North of Masasi town. There are four Agro-ecological zones: Zone I- Covers South half of Mtwara DC and South East of Newala. Annual rainfall exceeding 1000mm with relatively longer wet period (6 months); this low altitude area has less fertile soils. Zone II- North half of Mtwara DC, it receives between 600 and 1000mm of rainfall from November to April. Soils have low fertility and medium moisture holding capacity. Zone III- This is whole of Masasi, North and West part of Newala. Rainfall in this zone ranges from 600 to 1000mm between December and April. Soils are low in fertility. Zone IV- South East of Mtwara Rural: the zone has longer growing period November to May and experiences rainfall above 600mm. Soils are alluvial and relatively more fertile Administration and Population Trends Mtwara is divided into the Districts of Mtwara Municipal, Mtwara DC, Masasi, Nanyumbu, Nachingwea, Tandanhimba and Newala. The 7 districts are subdivided into 27 divisions, at the time of 2012 Population Census there were 149 Wards and 694 villages. In 2002 the Region had a population of 1,124,481. The projection then suggested that by 2012 there will be 1,374,767 people, the Census count in 2012 revealed a population of 1,270,854 a variation of 8%. The mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2012 was 1.2% down from 1.7% between 1988 and Table 2.1 : Mtwara Region Administrative Units and Population in 2012 District Divisions Wards Villages Population (2012) Mtwara ,299 Mikindani Mtwara ,003 Newala ,493 Tandahimba ,514 Masasi DC ,854 Masasi TC ,835 Nanyumbu ,857 Total ,270,854 Source: Mtwara Regional Profile Projection using the established growth rate of 1.2% per annum lends to a population of 1,431,861 by 2022 (10 years after the 2012 Census), and 1,466,432 in 2014 (10 years from now). One source indicated that the population of Mtwara Municipal is growing at 4.1%. Data from past years showed that more people have been leaving Mtwara than those getting in which has reduced the regional population growth since the Regions have comparable birth rates. The young population and the educated emigrate to larger towns especially Dar es Salaam. There is a strong feeling that immigration from other regions of Tanzania and to some extent from other countries into Mtwara will contribute to population growth that is larger than 1.2%. Some factors that will contribute include:- Industrialization of Mtwara that require skilled labour will pull labour from other regions as currently the general perception is that there are few people with requisite skills in Lindi and 4 (59)

12 Mtwara. One youth who operates a bodaboda when asked why he doesn t seek and work in the fields that require skills he reckoned that Construction companies and individuals who build houses here bring fundis and sometime even casual labourers from other regions, they don t like us. Limited employment and business opportunities in other regions will encourage youths and businesses to look into new areas with promising future, Lindi and Mtwara have been widely publicized as quite potential. Ease of access in and out of Mtwara and Lindi due to improvement of road networks, airlines (currently Precision and Air Tanzania Corporation) and in future the rail line between Mtwara and Malawi border Industries Data on industrial base in Mtwara and Lindi is very scanty, a data base of businesses with Mtwara Municipal Trade Officer (MTO) shows that there are 9 milling machineries, 4 bakeries, 1 salt processing. NBS is currently conducting a survey to list industrial establishments pending a detailed survey in The 2009 Industrial Production Survey identified 9 establishments that employed 10 or more people, these were Manufacture of beverage (ISIC 110) 2 firms, Other textiles, garments and apparels (ISIC 139) - 1, Printing services -2 units, manufacture of furniture (ISIC 310) 1 firm. The firms employed 317 people. Lately the Region is witnessing the high growth in industrial capacity as cement factories are under construction. The cashew crop contributes significantly to Regional GDP and has been cited to offer competitive return on labour compared to some urban based unskilled manual works causing labour shortages in urban areas. In the 1970s with the support of World Bank the country built several factories to add value to cashew. Unfortunately many closed business towards the end of 1980s and early 1990s. In 2000s there have been interests to invest in cashew processing by both the Government and private sector. According to Cashew nut Board of Tanzania Mtwara has installed processing capacity in excess of 68,000Mt per annum. However, only processors whose combined installed capacity is 28,900Mt (about 40%) have been reported to be operating, yet still at far low capacity, the remaining 60% capacity is non-operating. The list of processors in Mtwara is provided in Table 2.2. Table 2.2: List of cashew processors in Mtwara and Lindi Processor Location Capacity Status BUCO Masasi 10,000 Does not operate Agro-focus Newala I 10,000 Operating OLAM Mtwara 10,000 Operating Micronix Likombe-Mtwara 10,000 Does not operate Micronix Newala II 10,000 Does not operate River Valley Tandahimba 10,000 Does not operate OLAM Sanol Factory Mikindani 2,000 Operating CC 2005 LTD Mtwara MCC 2,000 Operating Masasi Farmers Group Masasi 2,000 Operating MAFC ARI Naliendele 300 Operating Kitama Farmers Group Kitama 300 Under trial operation OLAM Annar Factory Newala 2,000 Operating Perfect Kernels Masasi 300 Operating Total 68,900 Source: Tanzania Cashewnut Board 5 (59)

13 A market study by NIRAS (2012) showed that domestic demand for roasted cashew is very limited, one expert estimated the demand to be around 200Mt per annum citing high consumer price as a limiting factor. Hence the installed throughput capacity in Mtwara of 68,900Mt using a raw to kernel conversion ratio of 5:1 translates to 13,780Mt of kernel, with the limited domestic market for roasted nuts the industry has to rely on export. Data of Tanzania s exports of shelled nuts is very uneven, between 2009 and 2013 exports peaked in 2010 when more than 30,000Mt were exported (the equivalent of 150,000Mt of raw nuts) 1, it dropped to hardly 3,000 in 2012 onwards. This drop in the export of shelled nuts may be attributed to high demand for raw cashew in the World market and the strengthening of warehouse receipt system that raised the minimum farmer price rendering domestic processing less profitable. Detailed table on exports of shelled cashew nuts is in Annex I. Figure 2.1: Volume of Shelled cashew exported in Mt Source: TradeMap Agriculture Regional statistics show that during 2013/14 season, the region produced 718,000mt of staple foods that principally comprised of cassava (70% of staple food by volume) 2, maize, sorghum and paddy from 462,156hectares cultivated in the region. The established index for food security in Tanzania is a daily intake of 650grams of carbohydrates and 65grams of protein/legumes per capita per day, the Region requires 460,644Mt of foods, of Table 2.3: Government Relief Food Supply to Mtwara in Mt District 2008/ / /2012 Masasi 3, Mtwara Nanyumbu , TOTAL , Source: NFRA, 2013 which 332,184Mt are main source of calories and 128,460Mt of legumes that are main source of protein. Traditionally Mtwara and Lindi are not self-sufficient in terms of food supply and have at times received relief food from the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA). The region has been identified to have many potential areas for irrigation especially along major rivers including Ruvuma River valleys including Mahurunga and Kitere Plains. Mtwara DC is supporting irrigation projects at 8 sites covering 2,872 hectares under the Agriculture Sector Development Programme/Participatory District Irrigation Plans Development Plans (ASDP/PIDP). Masasi has a potential of 12,000 hectares that could be irrigated but only 4,460ha are under use. Apart from Ruvuma River other potential irrigation areas are valleys of Mwiti, Mbwinji, Mkungu, Ndanda and Mkululu rivers. Despite the potential, there is lack of serious private sector investors in irrigated agriculture something that call for a review of the investment promotion strategy by the relevant authorities. 1 This statistic is doubtful, efforts to validate during this study did not succeed but deserves further scrutiny. 2 While cassava is widely grown in Lindi and Mtwara, it is however, a food of last resort to most people and sometime areas are declared to have food insecurity even when there enough cassava on the ground. 6 (59)

14 2.2 Lindi Region Geography and Administration Lindi lies between and 10 0 South of the Equator, between longitudes and 40 0 East. The region has 4 agro-ecological zones: Coastal Low Land: Rises from 0 to about 120m above sea level, it has sandy loamy, and clay soils with sedimentary rock. Main staple foods in this zone are cassava, sorghum, and sweet potatoes. Coconut, cashew nut, simsim and pulses are for cash. Medium costal Lowland: Elevates between 120 and 750m above sea level, soils are sand loamy. Food crops in this area are sorghum, maize, and paddy while cash crops are coconut, cashew nut, simsim, pulses and fruits. Central Plain: is between 750 and 850m above sea level. Soils are of basement rocks and fertile silt. Staple food crops are maize, sorghum, and cassava, cash crops are cashew nut, groundnuts and fruits. Upland: Is at altitude m above sea level, it has fertile loamy soil and sedimentary rocks. The same crops cultivated in central plain are found upland zone. Administratively, Lindi is divided into 6 Districts, 28 Divisions, 142 Wards and 541 villages 3. Refer Table 2.5 for more information. According to the 2012 Population and Housing Census, in 2002 the Region had a population of 787,624 people; they increased to 864,652 by 2012 growing at an annual rate of 0.9%. Table 2.4: Lindi Region: Administrative Units Area Divisions Wards Villages Kilwa 13, Lindi DC 7, Ruangwa 2, Nachingwea 7, Liwale 36, Lindi MC Total 67, Source: Investment Opportunities Existing in Lindi Table 2.5: Lindi Population Size by District in Population Household Size No. of Households Kilwa 190, ,351 Lindi DC 194, ,471 Nachingwea 178, ,234 Liwale 91, ,251 Ruangwa 131, ,451 Lindi MC 78, ,526 Total 864, ,284 Source: 2012 Population and Housing Census The population growth rate for the region has declined from a mean annual rate of 1.4% between 1988 and 2002 to 0.9% between 2002 and 2012 leading to a population of 864,652 people. One important observation about the population growth in Lindi is that using the 2002 results the population was projected to reach 960,236 in 2012, the Census results of 864,652 people makes a variation of about -10%. While the Census Report does not explain the reason for variations it may have been due to unanticipated emigration to other towns especially Dar es Salaam or a drop in fertility rate. Common people in the street also allege that the negative message from some sections of the society that called its members to boycott the counting may also have contributed to the reported low growth and the deviation Manufacturing Industries Lindi is grossly starved of manufacturing industries, according to a 2009 Annual Survey of Industrial Production for establishments employing 10 and above people, the Region had 1 Sawmill (ISIC 161), 1 Manufacturer of Other Chemical Products (ISIC 202) and 1 Furniture Manufacturer. Interview with various stakeholders confirmed the lack of industrial activities in the Region. There had been investments in some commodities that failed to reach the marketing stage, they include:- Cassava processing it is not clear if it operated but closed due to, according to the source, unreliable and expensive power supply. 3 Lindi RAS Office. January Investment Opportunities Existing in Lindi Region. 7 (59)

15 Cement factory whose construction stopped for different reasons, some mention lack of funds, others lack of electricity to power the plant and others state weak technical capacity of the constructing company while TPDC says the construction is on schedule. Sesame oil press at SIDO Industrial Estate has been shifted to Coast Region to diversify oilseeds base to include sunflower instead just sesame which is common in Lindi and Mtwara but faces stiff competition from export market for raw sesame. The 2011 Regional Profile mentions metal works, wood works, grain milling, sawmill, garages, tailoring marts, poultry as the main industrial activities in the Region 4. The SIDO online database 5 of SMEs confirms the limited number of agri-businesses in the two regions, SIDO lists opportunities in fishing, forest products and gypsum. There is manufacturing of woodwork items including manufacturing of rope and twine, leather products, and cashew nut processing. Other areas include sea salt extraction. In agricultural it mentions production of cashewnuts, sisal, sesame, oranges, coconuts, soya, beans, maize, cassava, paddy, groundnuts, sorghum. Mtwara on its part lists salt extraction, processing and packaging, processing of cassava into various end products, cashew nut processing, sunflower oil expelling and groundnut oil. The database above is relatively old, the Regional Offices have submitted an updated list of SMEs to SIDO HQs for official publication Agriculture The major food crops grown in the region are cassava, maize, beans, paddy and sorghum. Table 2.7 below shows the composition agricultural crops produced in Lindi. There has been a rise and fall in production with 2006/07 being the best year for production of major food crops. Most of households in Lindi produce cassava followed by maize and paddy as major food crops. The Region outlines crops that are suitable for production in its investment opportunity brief. Table 2.7 shows the production status in 2012/13. Table 2.7: Agricultural Production in Lindi in 2012/13 in Mt. Table 2.6: Number of enterprises in SIDO online database by category Activity Lindi Mtwara Blacksmiths 18 0 Engineering 7 0 (fabrication/metal-based workshops, etc) Textile 7 4 Food processing 7 2 Handicraft 6 4 Total Source: Kilwa Lindi (R ) Lindi (M) Liwale Nachingwea Ruanngwa Total Food Crops Cassava 19,560 19,966 29,524 1,048 30,141 31, ,442 Sorghum 2,894 8,729 3,754 2,865 22,529 9,372 50,143 Maize 11,105 18,210 2,613 3,710 42,527 27, ,377 Paddy 1,774 7, ,032 9,573 25,328 Sweet Potato , ,652 Total 35,780 54,168 36,273 8, ,259 77, ,942 Pigeon Peas 2,295 13,088 5,929 12,031 6,331 39,674 Cow peas 1,925 10,574 7, ,563 6,000 35,348 Total 4,220 23,662 13, ,594 12,331 75,021 Cash Crops 4 At the time of writing this report, the Consultant had not confirmed information that there is a cement factory at Kilwa (59)

16 Cashew 10,491 1, ,404 28,474 Sesame 10,378 2, ,120 14,344 37,772 Groundnuts , Coconut , Sunflower , Onions ,425 15,521 Tomatoes ,156 20,368 Total 26,460 7, ,452 70, ,795 Source: RAS Lindi Lindi is estimated to have more than 24,000 ha that are potential for irrigation, most of which is in Lindi Rural (40%) and Ruangwa (29%). So far only 3,661ha or about 15% is under irrigation as Table 2.8 suggests. In view of the anticipated growth in demand for foodstuffs as a result of gas industry, it is prudent that the Regional Authority should take stock of the areas potential for investment, conduct pre-feasibility analysis and package relevant information as part of investment opportunities available for private and public investors. Table 2.8 : Potential Ares for Irrigation in Lindi District/ Council Potential Area (Ha.) Irrigated area (Ha) Percent irrigated Kilwa 4, Lindi 10, Ruangwa 7, Nachingwea Liwale 1, Lindi (M) Total 24, , Source: RAS Lindi 2.3 Food Security in Lindi and Mtwara Major source of calories (staple) food for Lindi and Mtwara are cassava, sorghum, maize and rice. Lindi is more prone to food insecurity partly because a large part of the Region receives less rainfall that is also erratic (few number of precipitation days in a month). Data from NFRA indicate that Liwale had received relief food continuously between 2007/08 and 2011/12, albeit small, the relief food shows persistent food insecurity. The food deficit in the region has been confirmed by millers who indicated that significant amount of cereals come from other regions. Food deficit can be further evidenced with higher food prices than most parts of the country and indeed higher than the national average for most part of the year. However, lately there has been improvement in supply of food within the Region, the report from NFRA 6 shows that for 2012/13 Lindi had a self-sufficiency ratio in staple food supply of 129% while Mtwara had 139%. The figures from NFRA reveal that countrywide some 61 districts had signs of food shortages in 16 regions including Lindi and Mtwara. In Lindi almost all the districts had pockets of vulnerable areas, arranged by decreasing degree of vulnerability the Districts are Kilwa, Lindi Urban, Lindi Rural, Liwale, Nachingwea and Ruangwa. Mtwara region fares better, it has more surplus at 39% and just Masasi and Mtwara Rural as the vulnerable districts that had signs of food shortage in 2013/14. The phenomenon that a region has surplus but experiences food shortages signals the limitations of market forces in ensuring access to food. Reasons for limitations include inadequate capacity to stock the produce, poor infrastructure connectivity between surplus and deficit areas as well as bias against certain types of foodstuffs in this case against cassava. 6 AGSTATS for Food Security. VOLUME 1: The 2012/13: Preliminary Food Crop Production Forecast for 2013/14 Food Security. 9 (59)

17 3. THE GAS INDUSTRY 3.1 Global Overview It is projected that the global demand for liquid hydrocarbons will continue to grow annually by 1.2% on average 7 and will reach 105mb/d by Much of this growth is attributed to transportation sector which rely on liquid hydrocarbons for over 90% of its needs. Globally there is expansion of transport infrastructure and more ambitious plans and projects are found in almost all developing countries as it has been concluded that efficient transportation system is a pre-cursor to accelerated economic growths. Correspondingly, economic growths witnessed in most parts of the World and particularly in the populous Asia and to some extent Latin America and recently Africa have led to increased demand for transport operating equipments (motor vehicles, railway, airplanes, etc.) In the past, gas had been treated as a by-product of oil production process and less as a primary product, however, in recent decades there has been an increase in interest, demand, exploitation and use of natural gas as production costs declined while the price of close substitute (liquid hydrocarbons) increased. It has been found out that natural gas has a number of advantages over other fossil fuels that includes:- Due to higher carbon emission, the burning of coal and oil has been singled out as the major source of green house gases that deplete the ozone layer and cause global warming, the fuels do have higher levels of dangerous elements of sulphur and nitrogen. There is growing demand for electricity generation in fast industrializing countries of China, India and other Far East countries. Africa is also growing and electricity supply has always lagged far behind the demand. There is growth in population coupled with high urbanization rate, projections are that by 2050 about 50% of the World s population will live in urban areas hence putting pressure on household needs for energy, gas is among the best options available to this population. There are efforts to use gas to fuel public transport vehicles in different parts of the World, it is yet insignificant but a promising technology. Nuclear energy, an important alternative to gas in power generation is on the drawing board again in many European countries, there is a debate about its safety following a series of accidents including the Three Mile Island in US in 1979, Chernobyl in Russia in 1986 and Fukushima Daiichi Japan in LUKOIL publication views the future of gas industry positively and points out that Until 2025 global gas consumption will continue to grow at an annual rate of 2.2%. Therefore gas consumption will have the highest rate of growth among other types of fossil fuels. The report adds that by 2020 China will become one of the world s largest consumers and importers of gas. Share of natural gas in Indian energy basket is projected to increase from 11% to 20% by In response to this opportunity, US is investing heavily in shale gas and is becoming an important exporter. Australia is also poised to become among the world s largest supplier of LNG in the global markets. In its well-researched study, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative (MIT Rei) noted that between 1965 and 2009 the market share of gas in the energy portfolio has increased from 15% to 24%, but considering the growth in energy sector the absolute increase over the period has been four-fold. Projecting the future, the report adds that 7 LUKOIL, Global Trends in Oil and Gas Markets to (59)

18 Unlike other fossil fuels, natural gas plays a major role in most sectors of the modern economy power generation, industrial, commercial, and residential. It is clean and flexible. The role of natural gas in the world is likely to continue to expand under almost all circumstances, as a result of its availability, its utility, and its comparatively low cost 8. The findings above by LUKOIL and MIT Rei have however been put to test the unprecedented fall in prices of petrol from US105 in June 2014 to less than USD 60 in January 2015, this implies liquid hydrocarbons have all of a sudden become cheaper. Do investors gas have to figure out their business models to accommodate such changes?. The gas price is usually influenced by five factors; usage predictions, demand forecasts, current inventory levels, speculation and the weather. Longterm price trend shows some cycles in price levels, there had been surges in 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008 and a small blip in 2010 after which prices of less than USD 5/MBtu have characterized the market. Figure 3.1 shows the trend. Figure 3.1 Long-term gas price trend in USD per MBtu( ) Source: USA Energy Information Administration Some OPEC officials recently stated that the ongoing fall is beyond fundamentals that left some critical questions to ponder, how far will the downward trend continue, where will the price settle and how long will the movement take. Summing the ongoing debate as to what caused the price fall Business Insider pointed out that No one is sure exactly why the price slid so rapidly, but it's now down to around $60 per barrel and doesn't show any signs of recovering 9. Many though are of the opinion that price fall in petrol in the World market is not permanent as it is not backed by fundamentals. And perhaps is part of the cycles noted in Figure 3.1 above. Tanzania s three tier strategy can partly help to cushion the impact of such price shocks, initially the gas will be used to generate power for the country, secondly, it will be used to feed petro-chemical industries and other energy-intensive economic activities. Finally, excess gas will be exported most likely to Asia. This may coincide with the timing of the envisaged LNG plant that may come on stream around , ceteris paribus. In their presentation 10 Gulf Research Centre mentions the following as potential manufacturing activities that can directly use cheaper raw materials from natural gas; i.e. ammonium fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, adhesives, paints, fleece, automotive, recyclable plastic bottles, silicones. Cheap energy source generated from gas can support industries related to: iron/steel, glass, ceramics, bricks and blocks, cement, food and beverages, metal working, rubber and plastic products, paper, textile and nonferrous metal. 8 MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas. Executive Summary Page 2. 9 Read more: 10 In Dar es Salaam on July 13 14, (59)

19 3.2 Gas Industry in Tanzania Knowledge about gas reserves in the Tanzania - Mozambique Channel dates back to 1950s when preliminary data showed presence of significant amount of gas and oil reserves. In 1970s more seismic surveys were conducted resulting into discovery of commercial volume at Songosongo in l974. The discovery was confirmed by TPDC in , later exploration discovered gas fields at Mnazi Bay in As global economic development especially in China and India put pressure on demand for energy, it rekindled interests of various international gas/oil companies to drill gas wells in areas with higher possibilities in Mandawa Basin and Kimbiji/Ruvu areas. TPDC acquired more 2D high resolution seismic data from deepwater areas offshore Tanzania that allowed it to license blocks to Petrobras, Ophir, Statoil, BG and Dominion by According to TPDC by 2012, significant gas discoveries had been made at 4 blocks, some 35 exploratory wells had been drilled and seismic survey covering 52,000 km both offshore and onshore had been completed. Discoveries made by 2013 amounted to 46.6 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of which 8 TCF is onshore and the remaining 38.6TCF is offshore. See the map of exploration blocks in Annex II and list of gas/oil companies operating in Tanzania in Annex III. A large area of potential gas fields has not been licensed yet, gas exploration and production activities are bound to increase as oil/gas companies acquire more licenses. Activities being implemented in the gas sector during 2013/14 include 11 :- Installation of the gas pipelines from Madimba in Mtwara and Songosongo in Mtwara to Dar es Salaam and had reached an advanced stage. A gas purification plant is being constructed at Madimba in Mtwara, it involves construction of staff houses and a foundation for the plant. Another purification plant will be constructed at Somanga in Lindi. The plants are being constructed by a Chinese firm and were planned to be completed by December 2014 at a cost of USD 1.2 billion 12. The Ministry has commissioned studies on local uses of natural gas for households, transport, industrial, institutions and power generation in adjoining towns of Kilwa, Mtwara, Lindi and Kisarawe. The most important investment, however, will be the construction of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plant planned to be constructed at Mitwelo in Lindi 13. To make LNG, natural gas has to be condensed at below c which results into a reduction in volume by 1/600 (i.e. to 0.167%) of its original size. LNG is economical to store and transport over longer distances usually by huge specialized tankers. According to the standing agreement the LNG plant is a joint undertaking involving TPDC, BG, ExxonMobil, Ophir and Pavilion Energy. This is a technically complex and huge investment hence it has a long-term outlook. Partners are still working on technical options including linking the different gas wells undersea and business models. Optimistically it can take 10 years for the plant to complete and pessimistically 15 years. The LNG plant once completed will have a number of embedded industrial and services around it. In anticipation of on-coming investments in gas/oil in Lindi, an investor from Middle East 14 commissioned construction of a cement factory in Lindi. However, the construction has been stalled, it is not clear why, some attribute the stoppage to underfunding, others say due to lack of 11 Ministry of Energy and Minerals 12 Ministry of Energy and Minerals. 2014/15 Budget Speech. 13 This is a very preliminary proposal, there are many factors that will determine the exact location including logistical optimality to various gas fields that will feed the plant. 14 M/S MEIS 12 (59)

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