# Chapter 1: Chapter 2: Chapter 3: Chapter 4: Chapter 5: Chapter 6: OPENING THE GATES OF FOREX CURRENCY, THE MAIN TRADED INSTRUMENT

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2 Chapter 1: OPENING THE GATES OF FOREX Chapter 2: CURRENCY, THE MAIN TRADED INSTRUMENT Chapter 3: WELCOME TO THE UNPREDICTABLE WORLD OF TRADING Chapter 4: TOOLS NECESSARY TO PREDICT THE MARKET Chapter 5: TRADING IN ACTION: 5 THINGS YOU MUST KNOW Chapter 6: READY TO START

7 4 Chapter TOOLS NECESSARY TO PREDICT THE MARKET Price movements depend on very many factors such as economic conditions, political policies, macro statistics of economic announcements made by influential officials, and many more. So, it is still possible to predict the market. There are mainly 2 analytical methods in Forex market: Technical and Fundamental. We will refer to all of them separately. Technical Analysis This type of analysis is based on the assumption that the trend of the exchange rate is already incorporated in the history of their past fluctuations. The basis of such an assumption is that, fist of all, any complex object (market is a very complex object) is inertial, and secondly, the history tends to repeat. A trader, using technical analysis, builds charts of currency rates, finds trend lines on those charts, determines the shape of a trend reversal and calculates various mathematical indicators, on the basis of which makes the decision to open a long or short position. Certainly it is important to understand that the concrete prediction is impossible, because the factors affecting the currency rates are physiological, political, economic, and so on. There is no any physical law that affects the market, based on which analytics could make 100% predictions. Technical analysis is based on the time series of the sequence of currency pairs prices, each point of which is a relatively short period of time- time frame. In fact, the time frames are the following: 1 minute, 5 minutes, 15, 30, 60, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month. These numeric price series are analyzed by mathematical methods or evaluated by traders visually from the graphs. By Chart analysis it is implied that for predicting the market solely graphical images of the market are used (price graphics, volume graphics) and its graphical models. Actually these are the simplest methods as they require minimum software. So, 4 basic types of charts may be distinguished: Tick chart Line chart Bar chart Japanese candlesticks Speaking about technical analysis it is highly important to mention the tools that are used by the traders most often: technical indicators and patterns. There is a quite large range of such tools, but we will illustrate the most used ones: TREND LINES - lines joining higher and higher low points (uptrend) or lower and lower high points (downtrend). Prices breaking through these lines can point out the beginning of a possible change in price direction. MOVING AVERAGES - smooth out past movements and indicate a possible new trend. REVERSAL PATTERNS - sequences of maximums and minimums, such as head-and-shoulders. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - the price levels at which the future dynamics of prices tends to stop and / or reverse. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDICATORS - show overbought or oversold condition of the market. FIBONACCI LEVELS - price levels that indicate the purpose of possible corrective movements from previous large price movement. MACD or Moving Average Convergences/divergerence- Comparison of the dynamics of the two moving averages to identify early trends and trend reversals. CYCLICITY INDICATORS - Often prices oscillate; pass a phase of growth, decline, keeping the overall long trend. Cyclical indicators help to find such cycles. Note also that the growing market is often called the bull market, and falling market - bearish.

8 Fundamental Analysis This type of analysis studies the macroeconomic events, political news and other events of the world which somehow affect the rates of the currencies. The main difference between the fundamental and Technical analysis is that the Fundamental one is based on the principle that the prices of the currencies on the Forex market are the reflection of supply and demand, which in their turns depend on fundamental factors of the economy. In contrast, technical analysts do not consider the study of the reasons of price changes important and put an emphasis only on the study of the price dynamics and history of price movements. Events affecting the market may be distinguished between 2 groups: expected and unexpected. These events include the publication of various economic indicators, which contribute to prediction of upcoming important events. In contrast, unexpected events may not be forecasted in any way because the group of such events includes natural disasters, political revolutions, acts of terrorism, etc. According to Fundamental analysis predicting the changes of the prices is possible through predicting the factors which affect the supply and demand. So, the difference between the two analysis methods is the following: for technical analysts if the prices have changed, then something has changed in supply or demand, and the reason is longer important because the prices have already changed. In contrast, fundamental analysts pay high attention to the factors affecting that change. So, what factors have the most focal affect on the currency price changes? GDP (Gross Domestic Product) The volume and dynamics of government expenditure The volume and dynamics of income to the state budget Deficit / surplus of the budget The aggregate consumption The aggregate private investment The level of private savings The volume of the export The volume of the import Unemployment Inflation It should be mentioned that traders may not wish to spend their time on studying Fundamental analysis and doing it themselves. Most of all they prefer following the professional financial analysts. Such kind of analysis is available, because it is published in newspapers, is present in Web, on TV and Radio. In addition, there are brokers which provide their own analytics on their websites which makes the process of trading much more easy for the traders. An important part of the market analysis is the analysis of expectations, which deals with the mood and emotions of market participants (traders). In contrast to conventional methods of analysis, by learning expectations, we are trying to understand and measure (for example, through surveys) what traders expect for today and for the nearest future. During the trading, each participant has an opinion, and of course, these opinions of large groups of market participants may have an impact on the market itself, and trading results as well. These views form the overall mood of the market. Understanding and appreciation of these sentiments are quite effective for understanding the actions of market participants in the present and in the nearest future. A variety of indices of expectations (this is a part of macro-economic statistics) is regularly published in the Internet.

12 Foreign Exchange Books Forex for the Beginners By Viktor Barishpolets Currency Operations By Souren Liselott Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading By James Chen Currency Trading for Dummies By Mark Galant and Brian Dolan An Introduction to Equity Markets By Reuters Fundamental Analysis of International Currency markets By Likhovidov V. N. Internet Sources

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