PRESENTATION: HIGH-SPEED INTO THE FUTURE

Transcription

1 PRESENTATION: HIGH-SPEED INTO THE FUTURE Dr. Ansgar Brockmeyer President Public Transit Saint Petersburg, September 13, 2009 Check against delivery

2 Thank you for your presentation, Dr. Grundmann. And let me also warmly welcome our guests today. I am quite pleased that you have all joined us and that we will have plenty of time over the coming hours for direct talks with one another. As the head of our Public Transit Segment, I d first like to take this opportunity to introduce our high-speed rail business at Siemens. High-speed of course is a flexible term. For some countries with a small or aging rail infrastructure, high-speed begins as low as 200 km/h. For others and that is the general view in this business high-speed really begins at 250 km/h and above. Modern trains like the ICE were already designed and approved for speeds over 300 km/h in the late 1980s, and in English one calls this very high speed or super high speed. And precisely this market for super high speed trains is what we will be discussing in detail today and tomorrow. Slide 2: Market figures for worldwide rail transport The high-speed sector is fairly small relative to the overall market for rail transport. If the overall global rail market is estimated at roughly 111 billion euros a year up to 2016, then the high-speed share only averages about 9 billion euros a year. At the same time, growth rates for this segment in some regions lie well above the average of 3%. In Asia and Western Europe, for example, one expects average market growth of 7% for this sector and there is only a limited number of suppliers. And that fact, ladies and gentlemen, makes this market so interesting for us. Slide 3: Planned expansion of Europe s high-speed rail system by 2025 Expansion of the high-speed rail network is proceeding at a fast pace. There are nearly 6,000 kilometers of rain lines for high-speed trains already in operation. (Source: UIC) By the year 2025, up to 8,000 kilometers of rail lines are expected to be added to the network, and 3,000 kilometers of this total are currently under construction. 2

3 Slide 4: High-speed rail network growing worldwide Worldwide, around 10,000 kilometers of high-speed rail lines are already in operation. The network is also growing rapidly outside of Europe, such as in China, Taiwan, India and naturally also in Russia. By 2025, the Asian high-speed network could quadruple in extent from its current 4,000 kilometers. This growth is also fueling demand for equipment and systems for high-speed links. The international rail industry association UNIFE, however, estimates only moderate annual growth of slightly below 3% for electrification and infrastructure systems up to This is due to negative growth rates resulting from high order volumes in Western Europe in recent years. Still, high-speed rail transport is a success model. And the reasons are obvious: Slide 5: High rail market share for trips up to four hours As a result of competitive travel times, the market shares of rail and airplanes have sharply shifted in recent years: For stretches taking one to four hours, taking a train is smarter than traveling by air. Rail links that are already in operation make this clear. The market share of high-speed trains with travel times of one to two-and-a-half hours is 80% or more higher than airplanes. Good examples here are the inter-city links between Paris and Brussels, Paris and Lyon, or Tokyo and Osaka. Even for stretches taking more than four hours, trains still have a market share of nearly 50%. One good example here is the link between Paris and Amsterdam. And when we say four hours of travel time, we are generally talking about covering distances of up to 800 kilometers. But one of the key arguments favoring trains in a comparison of travel modes is the climate balance. And here the results of the inter-city links are quite clear. Let s take, for example, an existing cross-border high-speed link in Europe namely the stretch between Paris and Frankfurt. 3

4 Slide 6: Example Frankfurt - Paris A one-way flight between these cities produces roughly 83 kilos of CO 2 per passenger. Traveling by ICE 3, the total is just under 10 kilos or over 90% less! And the rail link is also absolutely competitive when it comes to travel times. If you drive from downtown Frankfurt to the airport, fly to Paris and drive into the city, you can make the trip at best in three-and-a-half hours with fast security checks and two transfers. With the train, however, a trip from the downtown main railway station in Frankfurt to the Paris East railway station, is only 20 minutes longer and involves no transfers. When this stretch went into service, the consequences of this new travel alternative quickly became apparent: Some 2.1 million passengers have taken the trip by train since 2007, and rail travel gained a 20% market share within the first year of operation. Dr. Grundmann has already told you about the developments following the opening of the Madrid-Barcelona line where the Velaro was able to capture nearly 50% of the market within a single year. As early as 1992, when high-speed line trains began operating between Madrid and Seville, there was also a clear shift in market shares between rail and air travel, The share of air travel was 67% in 1991, and dropped to only 18% by And the daily connections between Ciudad Real (ca. 200 kilometers south of Madrid) and Madrid grew, for example, from 18 in 1992 to 47 in High-speed links also have economic advantages: The high-speed rail link to Ciudad Real sparked an economic boom in the city beginning in 1992, and private investments in the province of Murcia climbed by 20%. Every year, more than one million passengers are carried on the line between Puertollano/Ciudad Real and Madrid. That is ten times more individuals than the entire population of the province. As a result of the fast link to Spain s capital, these cities became attractive for commuters virtually overnight. There could be similar developments in Russia as well, if one further expands the high-speed rail network. 4

5 Slide 7: High-speed rail line Moscow St. Petersburg The new Sapsan will reduce the travel time between Moscow and St. Petersburg from the current 4 hours and 30 minutes to only 3 hours and 45 minutes. But the stretch between the two Russian cities hasn t yet reached its full potential. Theoretically, it would be possible to cover the same distance in just under 2 hours. The Russian rail authority is making major efforts to offer an efficient high-speed rail network in the future. In the first six months of 2009, for example, RZD invested a total of nearly 60 million euros in the stretch between Moscow, Nishni ovgorod and St. Petersburg. There is also a clearly positive climate balance for this new high-speed stretch: A long-distance train like the ICE 3, which is the technical basis for the Velaro, would cover the 650 kilometers between Moscow and St. Petersburg producing an average 30 kilos of CO 2 per passenger. A flight over the same distance, in contrast, would produce around 80 kilos of harmful greenhouse gases per passenger or nearly one hundred pounds more. One can also make such calculations for rail routes that are still being planned. However, Germany s energy mix for its rail power supplies is not always an ideal basis for calculating the CO 2 emissions of a high-speed train. After all, in some countries more fossil fuels are used, and in other countries less. These climate balances naturally provide only rough estimates. The individual parameters of the systems are too complex: vehicle or airplane type, the gradient of the rail line, the energy mix used for the power supplies, the capacity utilization for individual trips or flights, and so forth. But it is clear: On average, an airplane produces three times more CO 2 per passenger/kilometer than a high-speed train. Slide 8: Environmental potential of high-speed rail Example California The California High-Speed Rail Authority, for example, has calculated that a highspeed rail link between San Francisco and Los Angeles would save up to 4.7 million tons of CO 2 emissions a year beginning in

6 And the list could go on and on. For me, however, one fact is quite decisive: For medium-length links between urban centers, modern high-speed rail systems not only beat or are equal to airplanes for travel times, but are also the better choice when it comes to conserving global energy resources and protecting the global climate. However, my point here is not to construct a fundamental competition between rail and air transport. Because it is also clear: For long distances, there is no alternative to air travel. No what I want to make clear is the fact that high-speed links are a sensible and important supplement in an overall transportation system. The importance these links now enjoy in transportation planning throughout the world can be seen in the current figures for market development. The market is currently divided into high-speed up to 300 km/h and very high speed, or over 300 km/h. I am very confident that Siemens will have a very good future in the latter market. Why? Slide 9: Velaro Distributed traction We can already point to many successes in this market because we are one of the few complete suppliers in the field. For example, we have completed a turnkey PPP project to build the HSL Zuid in the Netherlands. For such projects, we provide electrification, automation and communication systems. And as you will see for yourselves tomorrow morning I am speaking of our Velaro, the only trainset in this segment that has already successfully completed more than 20 million kilometers in service. Now what exactly is a trainset? A trainset differs fundamentally from a normal train with locomotive and unpowered cars in that it has its power components distributed along the entire length of the train. Every second car is powered, while the others contain transformers and other components for the powered cars. Slide 10: Velaro The high-speed platform This concept offers clear advantages over so-called push/pull technology: 6

7 Thanks to the traction system being located below the floor and distributed along the entire train, roughly 20% more seats fit in a Velaro than in a normal train of the same length. In addition, the traction system makes possible better utilization of frictional forces: This means there is a more effective application of acceleration and braking forces, and the Velaro can operate on steeper grades than other trains. Mechanical wear is also reduced both in the train s traction system as well as the tracks. Cross-border travel is no problem, since some variants of the Velaro are already equipped with all the on-board systems necessary for interoperability. Slide 11: Velaro The world s fastest series production trainset And: The Velaro is the world s fastest series production trainset. This year, the Velaro in Spain made test trips with an operating speed of 350 km/h! In 2006 our train even reached a speed of 404 km/h in a test. That is the world record for a series production trainset! One month later, our French competitor set a new speed record for trains. However, that particular train was especially prepared for the record attempt and consisted of classic TGV power cars, in essence locomotives, along with a powered middle car. Over ten years ago, we already tested the same train design (power cars for ICE1 + powered middle car ICE3). Slide 12: History of the Velaro The components we tested at the time form the basis for our Velaro. We are naturally pleased and proud that the design with distributed traction is now conquering the market. In recent invitations to tender, this technology was superior to the other. In the super-high-speed sector, Siemens technology has therefore won 5 out of the last 8 tenders over the past five years. What also counts here is that we already have a decade of experience with distributed traction. And I am certainly justified in claiming that we are technology and innovation leader in this segment. 7

8 The development began back in 1985 with the prototype ICE V and the subsequent ICE 1. In building this train, Siemens was an equal consortium partner with Deutsche Bahn. The ICE 2 was a further development of the first ICE and had improvements in many places, but still was a push/pull solution. The trainset revolution began with the ICE 3, which was born over ten years ago. The ICE 3 ultimately formed the basis for today s Velaro. I am certain that our competence and experience here will pay off in the future. The Velaro trainset concept is now prevailing throughout the world. Tomorrow we will be seeing the result of an order that we received in 2006: The Russian rail authority ordered eight 10-car trains, designed to operate in extremely low temperatures. The Velaro has booked further successes in China, Spain and, since last year, Germany. Overall, we have sold the Velaro technology worldwide over 200 times and have been able to land decisive contracts. This is helping us conquer market share bit by bit. In fact, based on the contracts we have won, we have been the market leader at least in the sector of super-high-speed rail since *** I look forward to discussing further details of this theme with you this evening and tomorrow! 8