Sweden in the light of the global financial melt-down

Transcription

1 Peter Malmqvist Sweden in the light of the global financial melt-down Earnings development The banking crises The real estate crash Economic trends The Greek crisis Equity trends

2 Peter Malmqvist Present Chairman, Sw. Assoc. of Financial Analyst Investigator at the Stockholm Exchange Part-time teacher at Stockholm School of Economics and Stockholm University Columns in the business magazines: Privata Affärer, Aktiespararen, Sunt förnuft, Fastighetsnytt, Balans Past Head of equity research at Nordnet Bank Member of The EFRAG User Panel Head of equity research and asset management at Aragon Securities Business journalist at Svenska Dagbladet, Swedish Public TV (Aktuellt), Sydsvenska Dagbladet Private Equity Analyst (The Swedish Investment Bank AB) Accountant (Ernst & Young)

3 The Swedish financial crices Earnings development Stockholm

4 Stockholm earnings Vinster/Earnings (Q1) Base 100 = 1975 Moving average 4 quarters

5 USA earnings (S&P) S&P (USA) Kurs Share prices Index Earnings Vinst S&P EPS x 17 Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index Source: Reuters EcoWin

6 Stockholm Earnings Stockholm - Årsvinst (annual earnings) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) AZN 30%, ABB 30%, Stora 50%, Nokia 7%

7 Stockholm Earnings engineering 120 Verkstadssektorn (Engineering) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) ABB 30%

8 Stockholm Earnings banks Finansiella tjänster (Financials) Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B) 60% Nordea

9 Stockholm Earnings banks Handelsbanken Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mn SEK

10 Stockholm Earnings banks Nordea Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)

11 Stockholm Earnings banks SEB Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)

12 Stockholm Earnings banks Swedbank Resultat före skatt (Earnings before taxes), Mdr SEK (SEK B)

13 Equity trends Equity trends

14 Share price indices Index

15 Share price indices

16 Currency development

17 The crash in 2008 The banking crisis

18 The banking crises Lehman Brothers billions) USD (b

19 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent

20 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent

21 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent

22 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent

23 The banking crises Lehman Brothers rcent Per

24 The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe

25 The banking crises Lehman Brothers Percent

26 The banking crises Lehman Brothers ercent Pe

27 The crash in 2008 The real estate crash

28 The real estate bubble Index

29 The real estate bubble USA Sweden Index

30 The real estate bubble

31 The real estate bubble SEK (billions)

32 Economic trends Economic trends

33 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden Global

34 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% Tillväxtindikator (Growth indicator) Årstakt (Y o Y) Industriproduktion Detaljhandel Bilförsäljning Germany Industrial production Retail sales Car sales Sweden

35 Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Global -15% -20% -25% Sweden

36 Economic trends 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Industriproduktion (Industrial Production) Årstakt (Y o Y) Germany -15% -20% -25% Sweden

37 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% 4% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden Global 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

38 Economic trends 10% 8% 6% Detaljhandel, exkl bilar (Retail Sales, excl cars) Volym, Årstakt (Volume, Y o Y) Sweden 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Germany

39 Economic trends 20% 15% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) 10% 5% Global 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden

40 Economic trends 20% 15% 10% Bilförsäljning (Car Sales) Årstakt, rullande 12 mån (Y o Y, ma 12 month) Germany 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Sweden

41 Economic trends Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Global (grey)

42 Economic trends Purchasing Managers Index Sweden(black), Germany (grey)

43 Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Global Sweden -4,0%

44 Economic trends 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0% -2,0% -3,0% Employment growth Germany Sweden -4,0%

45 Economic trends Percent

46 Government finances The Greek crisis

47 The Greek crisis Government budget surplus/deficit % GDP

48 The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm deficit debt % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 Germany -3,3 73 Italy -5,2 116 Portugal -9,4 77 USA -9,7 85 Spain -11,2 53 U.K -11,4 68 Ireland -12,2 64 Greece -13,5 115

49 The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths

50 The Greek crisis 2009 Budget Governm Current deficit debt account % GDP % GDP % GDP Sweden -0,8 42 7,2 Germany -3,3 73 4,9 Italy -5, ,1 Portugal -9, ,3 USA -9,7 85-2,9 Spain -11,2 53-5,4 U.K -11,4 68-1,3 Ireland -12,2 64-3,7 Greece -13, ,2

51 The Greek crisis Current account, surplus/deficit % GDP hundredt ths