Per capita food production across regions. kcal/cap/day, Developed regions East Asia Latin America & Caribbean 7 807

Transcription

1 Aggregate agriculture The growth of global agriculture s productive potential has so far exceeded population growth, resulting in a steady, albeit slow, increase in average per capita food availability. At the same time, hundreds of millions have suffered from hunger as they were not able to purchase enough food. The production increases necessary to feed a growing world population are unlikely to be triggered by market forces. Instead, they will require considerable public investment. Agriculture value added per worker (US$, 2010*) Per capita food production across regions kcal/cap/day, 2010 Developed regions East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Caloric self-sufficiency ratio (%, 2010) lowest values Slovenia Argentina Uruguay 232 Sweden Australia Ukraine 193 Netherlands New Zealand 185 Denmark Bulgaria 171 Finland Hungary 162 Belgium Lithuania 149 Lebanon Malaysia 145 Norway Syria Panama 54.4 Italy Netherlands 54.3 Switzerland Armenia Dominican Rep Austria Zimbabwe Somalia 52.4 Saudi Arabia Haiti 51.0 Korea Belgium 50.6 Croatia Norway 50.1 World indices of food, non-food, crops and livestock production over time ( =100, ) Crops Food Livestock Non Food 36

2 Per capita food production (kcal/cap/day, 2010) No Data < >

3 Sources of growth in crop production In the past 50 years or so, global crop production has expanded threefold. Crop production growth is on account of yield increase and/or expansion in the area allocated to crops, which - together with increases in cropping intensities, such as multiple cropping and/or shortening of fallow periods - leads to an expansion in the area harvested. Much of the increase in world crop production in the past is attributable to yield improvements, but yield growth rates are currently slowing. Cereal yield growth % p.a Developed East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Cereal yield growth (% p.a., ) Cropland growth (% p.a., ) lowest values lowest values Mozambique 10.8 Mali 6.4 South Africa 9.5 Bolivia 3.2 Malawi 9.1 Burkina Faso 3.1 Morocco 7.2 Ghana 3.1 Tajikistan 6.2 Sudan 2.7 Zambia 6.0 Malawi 2.5 Uzbekistan 5.3 Uruguay 2.2 Namibia 5.0 Indonesia 2.2 Cambodia 4.8 Viet Nam 2.2 Mali 4.6 Mozambique 2.1 Australia Jamaica 1.0 Ecuador 1.0 Mauritania 1.1 Italy 1.2 Libya 1.1 Iraq 1.4 Moldova 1.3 Honduras 1.5 Kenya 1.7 Bulgaria 1.6 Somalia 2.0 Colombia 2.2 Lesotho Korea, Dem. Rep. Kuwait Chile Portugal New Zealand Sources of crop growth (% p.a., ) Developed East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub Saharan Africa Arable land expansion Cropping intensity Yield increases 38

4 Cereal yield growth (% p.a., ) No Data < > 6 39

5 Trends in the crop sector The food crop sector is changing. Although cereals continue to be the main source of food supplies, their production is growing at a slower speed, mostly reflecting changing diets, even though demand for industrial use has increased. The oilcrops sector has been particularly vibrant in recent decades. A similar development can be observed in the production of sugar, fruits and vegetables. Growth in the production of other food crops, such as pulses and roots and tubers, has remained relatively stagnant, but remains important for food security in several countries. Cereal yields (tonnes per ha, 2010) Cereal yields tonnes per ha, 2010 Developed regions 4.5 East Asia 4.9 Latin America & Caribbean 3.4 South Asia 2.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.3 Oilcrop yields (tonnes per ha, 2010) Belgium 9.7 Malaysia 4.5 Netherlands 9.0 Costa Rica Colombia 3.6 Korea 7.3 Honduras Indonesia 2.8 Egypt New Zealand Guatemala Papua N. Guinea Ecuador Ireland 6.8 Thailand 1.6 Denmark 6.8 Panama 1.5 Switzerland 6.6 Nicaragua Singapore 1.5 Austria Croatia 6.1 Liberia 1.4 Japan 5.9 Denmark 1.3 Chile Peru 1.2 Slovenia 5.3 Dominican Rep. 1.2 Sweden 5.1 Switzerland 1.2 Viet Nam 5.1 Ireland 1.1 Index of crop production ( =100, ) Developed East Asia Latin America &Caribbean South Asia Sub Saharan Africa 40

6 Total cereal production (million tonnes, 2010) No Data < >

7 Trends in the fisheries sector Fish is an important component in people s diets, providing about 2.9 billion people with almost 20 percent of their average per capita intake of animal protein. Capture fisheries continue to dominate world output, but aquaculture accounts for a growing percentage of total fish supply. Fishery sectors are particularly important in developing countries, in providing both food and livelihoods. Global marine capture production is less likely to increase, unless effective management plans are put in place to rebuild overfished stocks. Fish production (capture and aquaculture) Capture Aquaculture million tonnes, 2009 Developed East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Fish production (capture) (million tonnes, 2009) Fish production (aquaculture) (million tonnes, 2009) Peru 6.9 India 3.8 Indonesia 5.1 Viet Nam Indonesia 1.7 India 4.1 Thailand 1.4 Japan Russian Federation Bangladesh Norway Chile 3.5 Chile 0.8 Myanmar 2.8 Japan 0.8 Philippines 2.6 Myanmar 0.8 Norway 2.5 Philippines 0.7 Viet Nam 2.2 Egypt 0.7 Korea Bangladesh 1.8 Korea 0.5 Thailand 1.7 Brazil 0.4 Mexico 1.6 Malaysia 0.3 Malaysia Morocco Ecuador Iran 0.2 Fish production (million tonnes, ) Aquaculture Capture 42

8 Fish production - capture and aquaculture (thousand tonnes, 2009) No Data < >

9 Trends in the livestock sector The world food economy is being increasingly driven by the shift of diets towards animalbased products such as meat, milk and dairy. This shift has been particularly strong in developing countries, with the poultry sector underpinning growth. Agriculture is being affected, not only through the growth of livestock production, but also through the linkages to other sectors that supply feedingstuffs, such as crops and fisheries. Globally, livestock production is the largest user of agricultural land, raising environmental concerns including the impact of livestock production systems on climate change. Meat producing countries (million tonnes, 2010) World meat production growth %, Poultry 3.63 Pork 1.96 Beef 1.07 Sheep 1.81 Milk producing countries (million tonnes, 2010) 80.8 India Brazil Russian Federation India Pakistan Russian Federation Brazil Mexico New Zealand 17.0 Argentina Turkey 13.6 Italy 4.3 Poland 12.3 Australia 4.0 Netherlands 11.6 Viet Nam 4.0 Italy Ukraine 11.2 Poland 3.5 Mexico 10.8 Japan 3.2 Argentina 10.5 South Africa 2.9 Australia 9.0 Indonesia Philippines 2.8 Sudan 7.7 World per capita meat and milk production (kg, ) Milk Meat 44

10 Meat production (million tonnes, 2010) No Data < > 20 45

11 Trade Agricultural trade has become increasingly important to satisfy countries food demand. Over the past 50 years, international trade flows have increased fivefold and now stand at unprecedented levels. Despite their assumed comparative advantage in agriculture, many low-income developing countries have become net importers of food. While the trade balance does not by itself indicate a negative development, it does show that several countries are now dependent on the vagaries of potentially volatile international markets for their food security. Top food importing countries (billion dollars, 2009) Net food trade (exports-imports) balance by region billion dollars, 2009 Developed regions East Asia Latin America & Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Top food exporting countries (billion dollars, 2009) Netherlands Brazil 39.2 Japan Belgium 28.0 Netherlands Italy Belgium Russian Federation Italy Argentina Australia 16.0 Mexico 14.4 Indonesia 15.2 India 10.8 Thailand 13.8 Korea 10.2 Malaysia 13.5 Saudi Arabia 9.7 Denmark 12.5 Austria United Arab Emirates Poland Poland Mexico New Zealand Malaysia World food trade (billion dollars, )

12 Net trade balance in food (billion dollars, 2009) No Data < > 15 47