CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR SERVICE PARTNERSHIP CHINA

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1 CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR SERVICE PARTNERSHIP CHINA

3 Climate Science for Service Partnership China 1 COMBINING CHINESE AND UK EXPERTISE AND CAPABILITY TO DEVELOP THE SCIENCE NEEDED TO BUILD SERVICES THAT SUPPORT CLIMATE-RESILIENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND SOCIAL WELFARE. Many global challenges such as disaster risk reduction, global and regional security and economic prosperity can be affected by the impacts of climate change and variability. Certain regions are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than others. For East Asia, where there is rapid economic development and a growing population, the impact of extreme weather has the potential to be especially severe. China is particularly at risk as it experiences extreme conditions such as heavy rainfall, flooding, tropical cyclones, heatwaves and drought. These events can affect food and water security, lead to increased impact of natural disasters and even result in loss of life. Climate services are becoming increasingly important in addressing these challenges. Therefore, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Met Office have formed the Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP China) This partnership is supported by the UK-China Research Innovation Partnership Fund. Working closely together, the partnership is building an innovative shared research programme to develop the science that underpins climate services needed to support economic development and welfare in the future.

4 2 Crown copyright 2015 WORKING IN PARTNERSHIP CSSP China, supported by the UK and Chinese governments through the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund (the Newton Fund in China), began in CSSP China builds on existing links between CMA, IAP and the Met Office. It makes possible the creation of enduring and sustainable partnerships with a variety of leading Chinese and UK institutes, through workshops, scientist exchanges, and joint research and development projects that strengthen science and innovation capacity. During the first year, for example, CSSP China involved scientists from CMA, IAP, Nanjing University and Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology in China, and scientists from the Met Office Hadley Centre, the Universities of Edinburgh, Exeter, Leeds and Reading, and the National Oceanography Centre in the UK. Dr Xiaoyi Fang, a scientist from Beijing Municipal Climate Centre (BMCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA) who is visiting the Met Office adds: Working together and sharing our scientific expertise and experiences is a vital part of this exciting collaboration and is key to developing climate services that deliver real benefits. She continues: During my time at the Met Office I ve been working on climate services for urban environments. Through collaboration between the Met Office, University of Reading and CMA we re developing a tool to help decision makers understand the impacts of different climate scenarios, mitigation and planning strategies for future conditions and the trade-offs between these. Given the projected rapid urbanisation of China, this work is very important, and developing this shared understanding of climate services between the UK and China lays a strong foundation for long term collaboration. Professor Stephen Belcher, Director of the Met Office Hadley Centre, who oversees CSSP China in the UK, explains, CSSP China is one of our most important partnerships, getting science out of the seminar room and into services that improve people s lives, safeguard their homes and livelihoods.

5 Climate Science for Service Partnership China 3 DELIVERING GLOBALLY CSSP China is split into five research areas: 1. Measuring the climate of China and the East Asia region, and understanding to what extent human influence has altered the regional climate. 2. Exploring the impact of global oceanic and atmospheric patterns on the region s weather and climate variability, and the extent to which modelling systems could predict East Asian monsoon rainfall patterns months in advance. 3. Investigating the East Asian climate and high impact weather, and modelling the climate at very high spatial resolution to enable better prediction of heatwaves and flash floods and the impact of large scale urbanisation and mega cities. 4. Developing climate prediction models. Understanding how climate is likely to change over the coming decades helps inform decision-making concerning adaptation to climate variability and change. 5. Translating the expertise and information developed in the other research areas into climate services. This work package helps improve understanding of what decision makers need from climate services, so influences the research in the other four areas of research. The first year of CSSP China has seen some important scientific developments, including: Understanding human impact on current and future heatwaves over China Research led by scientists from CMA in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre has shown that human influences have significantly increased the likelihood of extremely warm spring temperatures as was seen during Extremely warm seasons like spring 2014 can have serious impacts on agriculture and other key sectors. Working together to maximise data quality from satellites Satellite measurements provide important inputs to the science that underpins climate services. CMA s National Satellite Meteorological Centre (NSMC), the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have been working together to get the best quality measurements from the new Chinese Feng Yun (FY)-3 series of polar orbiting satellites. Demonstrating skilful seasonal predictions of East Asian summer rainfall In a joint analysis between Chinese and Met Office scientists, the new high resolution Met Office seasonal climate prediction system (GloSea5) was shown to better simulate the connections between sea temperatures in the tropical west Pacific and summer rainfall over the Yangtze River basin. Improved long-range forecasts for this area of East Asia have potentially huge societal and economic value.

6 4 Crown copyright 2015 Working together to improve climate models from the UK and China Scientists comparing Chinese and Met Office climate model outputs have found ways to jointly improve the climate models that underpin the climate services needed to support economic development and welfare. Improvements to modelling extreme rainfall events in detail Joint research from the Met Office, the University of Reading and IAP has shown that very high resolution models improve the simulation of the weather patterns that influence weather and climate extremes over the Yangtze River valley. These models can successfully capture extreme rainfall events such as the heavy rainfall storm in Beijing on 21 July 2012 which triggered flash flooding and landslides. This research is expected to improve climate risk assessments and development of early warning methods. Understanding how well climate models capture Pacific tropical cyclones The Western North Pacific is the most active ocean basin worldwide for tropical cyclones, with China receiving the highest number of tropical cyclones over land. Met Office research suggests the frequency of tropical cyclones might be predictable up to a season ahead. Research at the University of Reading has shown that models can capture where tropical cyclones will be, but underestimate their power.

7 Climate Science for Service Partnership China 5 Understanding how well models can capture these cyclones is an important step in developing early-warning systems to help protect lives and livelihoods. Developing a new climate projection system for risk-based decision making Scientists have been exploring the potential to design a new climate projection system that captures a realistic range in projected climate change over the coming decades. This is expected to improve the basis for climate impacts assessments, enabling the risk-based decision making necessary for climatesmart development. Water availability in the Yellow and Yangtze River basins Water runoff in the Yellow River basin, which has decreased since 1950, may be linked to water use by human populations whereas runoff in the Yangtze River Basin has changed little over the same period. New research suggests it is unlikely that any climatedriven increase in runoff in the Yellow River Basin during the coming century will be sufficient to alleviate the previous decrease in runoff. This information can support decisions about water resources over the coming century. Cooperating to better understand climate service needs Over the first year, the partnership has worked to improve understanding of climate services and the relevant underpinning science in China and the UK. The climate services focus on four key user-driven sectors: energy, urban environments, agriculture/food security, and water resources. The University of Leeds and Beijing Normal University have also been working together to identify key needs for climate service development in China. These research collaborations lay the groundwork for developing climate services that support economic development and social welfare.

8 6 Crown copyright 2015 FOUNDATIONS FOR THE FUTURE CSSP China is expected to run for at least five years, but the Met Office, CMA and IAP hope that the partnerships established during CSSP China will run far beyond that. According to Dr Song Lianchun, Director General of the Beijing Climate Centre, CMA: Through CSSP China we are building a joint framework that will be the foundation for future work together. I am confident that we can provide the information and support needed to help China and the UK to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Dr Tianjun Zhou (on behalf of Prof. Zhu Jiang, Director of IAP) comments: The increasingly diverse requirements of climate service users pose challenges for climate prediction and climate services capability. CSSP China facilitates the dialogue between research and services. Through collaboration with our partners, we will be able to benefit from state-of-the-art climate science and technology, improve the journey from climate research to relevant services, and improve climate prediction capacity. We will all benefit from shared knowledge and technology during the five-year programme and, even more importantly, we will build long-term relationships that will ultimately benefit society. IAP is a pioneering centre for climate prediction and climate change studies, and will make significant contributions to the implementation of CSSP China. For more information about CSSP China please visit the Met Office ( collaboration/cssp-china), IAP ( or CMA ( or contact cssp-china@metoffice.gov.uk 15/0339 Met Office and the Met Office logo are registered trademarks. UK-China Research Innovation Partnership Fund information The UK-China Research Innovation Partnership Fund, part of the UK s Newton Fund, will strengthen China and the UK s research and innovation partnerships. Launched by UK Prime Minister David Cameron during his visit to China in December 2013, the China partnership has a total value of 200 million over 5 years. Individual projects and applications are managed through programmes awarded under the Newton Fund. Programmes are between Chinese and British institutions or Delivery Partners that are responsible for promoting the calls. The Newton Fund is a 375 million fund over 5 years and is part of the UK s commitment to promote research and innovation initiatives to strengthen social and economic development of emerging countries. For more information visit: and follow via