McMaster PV Workshop

Transcription

1 McMaster PV Workshop

2 Customers Market Status > The Market changed dramatically in April 2004 to a supply limited market driven by high demand in Germany > The market switched back in November 2008 to a demand limited market driven by the world credit crunch and growing recession > The 180 shift will result in a challenging 2009 > Strategy has shifted from just get silicon and grow as fast as you can to it s all about access to projects and project financing. > The common stock equity market is shut down but fixed income is open > The Green Energy Act should be a huge opportunity with plans to create 50,000 jobs > The main strategic driver is cost per kwh (not kw) with the drive to grid parity > Need to understand how your technology will improve margins in the context of the value chain 2

3 3 Silicon is the Current Strategic Driver

4 DB Report > Everything changed on Sept. 16 th with the collapse of Lehman. The old strategy was, lock down silicon at good prices and you will sell whatever you make with good margins. Now it is all about access to projects and project finance. First Solar and Sunpower are the only ones not cutting back because with their Systems Divisions they have access to proprietary projects. > Vertical Integration is the winning strategy and not just ingot-cell-module like the Chinese but the whole value chain with an emphasis on systems and financing. > There will be a frantic scramble to acquire downstream companies by module manufacturers in order to survive. > Average Selling Prices (ASP s) for modules from 2008 Q3 to 2009 Q4 will come down by more than 30% to $2.85 a watt for modules. > A PV company recently won a bid to deliver in 2011 electricity from PV at US$0.11 a kwh. This is grid parity. > Either a First Solar or Sunpower-like strategy will win but a commodity ingot-cellmodule strategy like all of the Chinese companies will loose. Tier 3 Chinese companies are already gone. 4

5 Money Industry Creation > What has been driving the German market has been job creation > ARISE received 24.55M for a 49.8M project > Why Germany? Close to customers who want to pay in Euro s Access to experienced people, suppliers, banks and engineering firms Government is very committed to renewable energy > Ontario has the Next Generation Jobs Fund, Strategic Opportunities Program > Federal Government has SDTC, SRED and others > The Capital markets have been key in the window 5

6 Technology Product Differentiation > What is your focus, low cost or high performance? > How will the technology improve the profit of the business? > What is the IRR on that investment? > How does this technology make your product more valuable to your customers? > How does it make your company different and better? > ARISE is focused on high efficiency because it has the best IRR for our company > ARISE has been Leveraging R&D investments with government funding and external partnerships 6

7 ARISE Technologies Corporation ARISE Technologies Corporation TSX:APV, Frankfurt:A3T PV Cell Division PV Silicon Division PV Systems Division Develops high-efficiency PV cells. Plant is in full production. Goal of 560MW by Proprietary technology Focuses on reducing cost, improving PV cell efficiency and dramatically eliminating supply constraints Provides complete turnkey solar solutions for residential, commercial/industrial and solar farms Mission: To be the leader in high-performance solar technology delivering the lowest-cost energy 7

8 Technology Strategy > Will use our high-efficiency PV cells to leverage the high-margin part of the value chain using our patented thin-film deposition technology > Combining high-efficiency cells and low-cost production enables increased margins; targeting efficiency of PV cells significantly above industry standard of 15% > Customers will pay a premium for high efficiency > Production of proprietary solar grade silicon feedstock will allow control over wafer quality and cell efficiency Silicon Ingot Wafer Cell Module System 8

9 PV Cell Technology and Ramp-Up Technology Strategy > Thin-film on high-performance silicon wafer is our technology platform > Lower-cost, low-temperature, higher-quality thin-film deposition approach > Hetero-junction cells & deposition process (DCSF) research at U of T > Third-party validation of strategy and technology roadmap by Fraunhofer Institute > Continuation of product roadmap through double and triple junction cell R&D at McMaster Capacity > Line 1 (April 2008) deploys proven off-the-shelf technology > Lines 2 (March 2009) through 12 to come on-stream over five years > Step-by-step progression to increasing efficiencies (20%+) > Planned total capacity of 560MW by 2012 Funding > Leveraging R&D investments with government funding programs and external partnerships C$15M program with University of Toronto and ON government over 5 years C$4.1M program with McMaster University and ON government over 3 years 9

10 German PV Cell Plant Construction > Funding agreement December 2006 > Production April 2008 > 13 hectare (32 acre) site in Bischofswerda, Germany Why Germany? > Largest solar cluster globally > 40,000 people in the PV industry > Close to potential customers, suppliers and research institutes Main Partners ARISE Germany s primary financial partner Top facility engineering firm Leading German construction firm Manufacturing and handling equipment supplier Major PV module manufacturers 10 9/24/2008

11 German PV Cell Plant Site 11

12 12 German PV Cell Plant Site

13 13 German PV Cell Plant Site

14 14 German PV Cell Plant Site

15 15 German PV Cell Plant Site

16 16 German PV Cell Plant Site

17 17 German PV Cell Plant Site

18 18 German PV Cell Plant Site

19 19 German PV Cell Plant Site

20 20 German PV Cell Plant Site

21 PV Silicon Wafer Strategy > Plan to become self-sufficient and a seller of silicon > Receiving $6.4M in Canadian government funding for $19.8M pilot plant with a target of 50 tonnes/year by Increase to 400 tonnes/year planned in 2010 > New 10,000 tonnes/year plant planned for 2011 > Meanwhile, source silicon from multiple strategic vendors under short to long-term contracts with Deutsche Solar AG, LDK, SAS, ReneSola and others 21

22 Why ARISE Silicon? > Control over supply (mid-term issue) > We believe we have a significant cost-purity advantage Target capital and production cost 1/2 to 2/3 of the Siemens process at 7N+ > Cost of silicon program less than the cost to purchase > Potential for crack-free rods for highest-quality wafers > Higher-quality float-zone wafers for our advanced cell design > Silicon wafer cell alignment leverages significant margin improvements > Streamline PV production process with consistent wafer quality 22

23 Conventional Siemens Process Conventional Siemens Process > Typically $1B for 10,000 tonnes/year plant Raw Materials MG-Si, HCL,H 2 FBR > Economies of scale require minimum 2,500 5,000 tonnes/year MG-Si + HCl TCS + other silanes 10 MWh/t > Complex trichlorosilane (TCS) chemical plant construction and operating expertise required Distillation Tower Separation and purifiation of TCS by distillation 50 MWh/t STC Recovery reactor Siemens reactor Total Energy Consumption 140+ MWh/t Gas Recovery Deposition on 1150C Si filament 80 MWh/t 23

24 Simplifications with ARISE SiRF TM Process Conventional Siemens Process > ARISE SiRF process retains purification benefits of chemical vapour deposition (CVD) Raw Materials MG-Si, HCL,H 2 MG-Si + HCl FBR Eliminate separate FBR > Eliminates capital cost and operating (energy) cost of refinery and gas recovery simplified scale-up reduced initial investment TCS + other silanes Distillation Tower Separation and purifiation of TCS by distillation Eliminate TCS Refinery STC Recovery reactor Siemens reactor Eliminate STC Gas Recovery Gas Recovery Deposition on 1150C Si filament 24

25 ARISE SiRF A Regenerative Process > ARISE SiRF process integrates TCS generation and deposition > Internal TCS circulation > no gas recovery needed > no TCS storage or transport > Expected capital and operating cost 1/2 to 2/3 of conventional Siemens plant ARISE SiRF Process MG-Si Pre-processing Initial Gas charge Pre-processed MG-Si HCl TCS > Modular scale-up allows initial revenues to help fund expansion Deposition on 1150C Si filament Reduced CAPEX, process complexity and energy demands 75 MWh/t 25

26 Waterloo Mini Pilot Plant SiRF Process Room SiRF 3.2 rod 26

27 Equipment Supply - Ebner Furnaces SiRF 3.1 operating at Ebner 1 st full run August 17, 2007 Ebner installation to bright anneal cold-rolled mild steel strip in Magnitogorsk Russian steel works. Strong equipment supply partnership with Ebner Furnaces Inc., world leader in Annealing Furnaces 27

28 PV Systems Division > Design, distribution, installation and support of PV systems for solar farms, industrial, commercial and residential customers > Focused on Ontario Standard Offer Program > Will leverage vertical integration strategy using ARISE PV cell production > Showcase for ARISE PV cell technology in Canada 28 Photo courtesy of Lorentz

29 ARISE Summary Path to Profitability > High-efficiency PV cell manufacturing plant started production in Germany > Ontario RESOP provides access to proprietary projects > Proprietary cell technology will drive efficiency gains (20%+) > Proprietary silicon technology will enhance profit margins > Long-term, stable contracts with major customers Proprietary Technology > Developing proprietary process and manufacturing technology > R&D programs supported by government funding and collaboration partnerships Funding in Place > 80MW German plant is fully funded > Partnership with Commerzbank > Equity financing in 2007 & 2008 raised gross proceeds of $110M Experienced Leadership > Strong management team, Advisory Board and Directors > Management and Board own 11% of shares (fully diluted) 29 9/24/ Ontario Environmental Mission to China