OpenQuake - Physical Risk

Transcription

1 GEM Semi-Annual Meeting Taipei, 7-8 June 2012 OpenQuake - Physical Risk Helen Crowley Executive Committee Risk Coordinator, GEM Foundation

2 Modelling Tools Inputs Outputs Exposure Model Loss Maps Scripts for NRML input format Calculators for vulnerability and fragility Physical Vulnerability Model Fragility Model Consequence FuncBon Model OpenQuake Risk Loss Curves Loss StaBsBcs Damage Maps Capacity Model Benefit- Cost RaBos DisaggregaBon plots

3 Exposure model Geographical distribution of the value (e.g. replacement cost, number, area, volume) of the assets (e.g. buildings, population), classified according to a given taxonomy. Gridded Unevenly spaced

4 Physical vulnerability model Probability distribution of loss ratio (e.g. cost of repair/cost of replacement, or number of fatalities/number of occupants) vs. intensity measure level (e.g. PGA, PGV, MMI, Sa(T))

5 Fragility model Probability of exceeding a set of limit states (to damage) given an intensity measure level Probability of Exceedance Intensity Measure Level

6 Main Calculators (currently implemented) Scenario risk calculator Scenario damage calculator Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Probabilistic event-based risk calculator Retrofitting benefit-cost ratio calculator

7 Scenario risk calculator Rupture Scenario Model: - Rupture Model - GMPE Ground Motion Field Calculator Exposure Model Ground Motion Fields Physical Vulnerability Model Scenario Risk Calculator Loss Maps Loss Statistics μ mean loss σ standard deviabon of loss

8 Scenario risk calculator Multi-site loss distributions due to a single deterministic rupture (known magnitude, location, depth, fault rupture dimensions, style of faulting etc.). Spatial correlation of the ground motion residuals and correlation of the uncertainty in the vulnerability can be modelled. Main output: mean loss map (the mean loss at each location where assets are located) and loss statistics (mean loss and standard deviation of loss considering all assets) Use cases: for raising risk awareness, emergency planning, rapid post-earthquake impact assessment, model testing (comparing modelled losses with observed losses)..

9 Scenario risk calculator Single rupture Site A IML 1A IML 2A IML 3A IML 4A IML na Vulnerability model LR 1A LR 2A LR 3A LR 4A LR na

10 OPENQUAKE - RISK Scenario risk calculator Spatial correlation of ground motion residuals can be modelled (right)

11 Scenario risk calculator Site A Site B Site C LR A LR B LR C Mean loss map (or standard deviation loss map)

12 Scenario risk calculator Without uncertainty (CoV = 0) With uncertainty (CoV 0) Log(LR) = μ + εσ Full correlabon No correlabon LR = Mean LR Set of correlated LR s Set of uncorrelated LR s

13 OPENQUAKE - RISK Scenario risk calculator In collaboration with KOERI, we have obtained data for Istanbul and have carried out scenario risk assessments. Region of interest: Longitude: Latitude: Current population: 12.7 M

14 Scenario risk calculator Magnitude 7.5, Strike-Slip Fault, 500 ground motion fields were produced for the same rupture using different GMPEs.

15 Scenario risk calculator Three different ground motion prediction equations were considered: Boore and Atkinson (2008), Chiou and Youngs (2008) and Akkar and Bommer (2010). Median PGA maps shown below.

16 Scenario risk calculator Building distribution following a decimal degrees spatial resolution. Total number of buildings: 737,653

17 Scenario risk calculator Vulnerability Model: Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2004), no uncertainty, converted from EMS-98 to PGA

18 Scenario risk calculator Map of mean economic losses and loss statistics:

19 Scenario damage calculator Rupture Scenario Model: - Rupture Model - GMPE Ground Motion Field Calculator Exposure Model Ground Motion Fields Physical Fragility Model Scenario Damage Assessment Calculator Aggregated damage distribution Collapse maps

20 Scenario damage calculator Similar to Scenario Risk Calculator, replacement of vulnerability models with fragility models Main outputs: aggregated damage distribution for the region of interest (percentage, number or area of buildings in different damage states) and map of the distribution of collapsed buildings (percentage, number or area). Use case: for raising risk awareness, emergency planning, rapid post-earthquake impact assessment, model testing (comparing modelled damage distribution with observed damage)..

21 Scenario damage calculator Single rupture Site A IML 1A IML 2A IML 3A IML 4A IML na Fragility model D1 1A, D2 1A, D3 1A, D1 2A, D2 2A, D3 2A D1 3A, D2 3A, D3 3A D1 4A, D2 4A, D3 4A D1 na, D2 na, D3 na

22 Scenario damage calculator Site A B C D

23 Scenario damage calculator Collapse maps mean percentage/area/number/value of buildings in each cell that are estimated to collapse

24 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator PSHA Input Model: - Seismic Sources System - GMPEs System Logic Tree Processor Seismic Sources Model GMPEs Model Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator Earthquake Rupture Forecast Classical Hazard Curves Calculator Exposure Model Hazard Curves Physical Vulnerability Model Classical PSHA-based Risk Calculator Loss Curves Loss Maps

25 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Single site probabilistic risk assessment Main output: loss curves and maps (average losses or at a given return period), AAL Need: present the relative losses/risk at different locations (e.g. for prioritization of resources), for estimates of average losses. Vulnerability Hazard P(Loss x) = IML P(Loss x / IML)P(Intensity = IML)

26 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Probability of exceeding LR given IML Probability of occurrence of each IML

27 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Probability of exceeding LR for each IML Summing the probabilities of exceedance for each IML

28 OPENQUAKE - RISK Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Region of interest: Longitude: Latitude: , Current population: 22 M

29 OPENQUAKE - RISK Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Fault sources for large magnitude events (>6.7), strike slip faults, colours represent maximum magnitude (Demicioglu et al., 2008) 30 E 35 E 40 E 45 E 40 N 40 N 35 N 35 N 30 E E E Maximum_Magnitude_(Mw) 45 E 7.8

30 OPENQUAKE - RISK Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Area sources, large-scale background seismicity (5.0 Mw 6.5), as well as seismicity around faults (that is, events not occurring on the fault plane but within its neighborhood) (Demicioglu et al., 2008) 20 E 25 E 30 E 35 E 40 E 45 E 50 E 45 N 45 N 40 N 40 N 35 N 35 N 30 N 30 N 20 E E E E E E Maximum_Magnitude_(Mw) 50 E

31 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Building distribution following a 0.05 decimal degrees spatial resolution, provided by KOERI. Total number of buildings: 1,471,905

32 Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Vulnerability Model: Giovinazzi and Lagomarsino (2004), no uncertainty, converted from EMS-98 to PGA

33 OPENQUAKE - RISK Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Intermediate product hazard map (PGA with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years) 25 E 30 E 35 E 40 E 45 E 40 N 40 N 35 N 35 N 25 E 30 E 35 E 40 E 45 E PGA

34 OPENQUAKE - RISK Classical PSHA-based risk calculator Loss curves and map (probability of exceedance of 10% in 50 years)

35 OPENQUAKE - RISK Probabilistic event-based risk calculator PSHA Input Model: - Seismic Sources System - GMPEs System Logic Tree Processor Seismic Sources Model GMPEs Model PSHA Input Model: - Seismic Sources System - GMPEs System Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator Logic Tree Processor Earthquake Rupture Forecast Seismic Sources Model GMPEs Model Stochastic Event Set Calculator Earthquake Rupture Forecast Calculator Stochastic Event Set Earthquake Rupture Forecast Ground Motion Field Calculator Classical Hazard Curves Calculator Exposure Model Exposure Model Ground Motion Fields Hazard Curves Physical Vulnerability PhysicalModel Vulnerability Model Probabilistic Event-based Classical PSHA-based Risk Calculator Risk Calculator Loss Curves Loss Curves Loss Maps Vulnerability Model

36 Probabilistic event-based risk calculator Multiple site probabilistic risk assessment Uses Stochastic Event Sets (SES) Ground motion field (as per the scenario risk calculator) generated for each rupture/event in the stochastic event set (with/without spatial correlation of ground motion residuals). Use case: when standard deviation of total losses to portfolios (groups) of buildings need to be calculated (as it allows spatial correlation of ground motion residuals and vulnerability to be accounted for).

37 OPENQUAKE - RISK Probabilistic event-based risk calculator 30 E 35 E 40 E 45 E 40 N 40 N 35 N 35 N 30 E E E E 7.8 Maximum_Magnitude_(Mw) SES2 SES1 R1 R2 R3 LR1 LR2 LR3 R4 R5 LR4 LR5 SES3 R6 R7 R8 R9 LR6 LR7 LR8 LR9 PE(LRn ) = 1 exp λnt

38 Probabilistic event-based risk calculator Total (summed) losses to a portfolio of assets, both with and without spatial correlation of the ground motion residuals

39 Retrofitting benefit-cost ratio calculator Uses the Classical PSHA-based risk calculator!"# = (!!"!!!"! ). (1!!!" )!!

40 Recent Use of OpenQuake Risk

41 Recent Use of OpenQuake Risk Estimation of AAL in terms of fatalities and economic loss, for whole countries and some cities.

42 OpenQuake Alpha Testing Service (OATS) Temporary accounts to allow users to try out the command line version of OpenQuake through the internet. More than 100 individuals from 45 countries have tried OpenQuake through OATS. A number of demos have been prepared for each calculator. First versions of the OpenQuake Book ( the science behind OpenQuake ) and the OpenQuake User Manual have been released.

43 Future developments Insured loss (considering deductibles and limits) Insurance benefit-cost ratio calculator Disaggregation of losses (in terms of events and building typologies) Total risk index (calculate a physical risk index to combine with social vulnerability, resilience and indirect loss indices)

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45 Scenario risk calculator LR 1A, LR 1B LR 2A, LR 2B LR 3A, LR 3B LR 4A, LR 4B LR na, LR nb LR A (A/A+B) + LR B (B/A +B) = LR A+B LR A LR B LR A+B μ mean LR A+B σ standard deviabon LR A+B Sum asset values at A and B Mean and Seismic standard Risk deviabon and Loss of total loss (A+B) 45