EXPORT PERFORMANCE & PROSPECTS IRISH FOOD, DRINK & HORTICULTURE

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1 +10% EXPORT PERFORMANCE & PROSPECTS IRISH FOOD, DRINK & HORTICULTURE +3% +2% +4% +4% +4% Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture Performance and Prospects A

2 Food & Drink Exports 10.8 billion the value of Irish food & drink exports, an increase of 3% The sector recorded the 6th consecutive year of growth in exports during % of Irish food & drink exports are destined for the UK, valued at 4.4 billion Irish food & drink is sold in more than 175 markets worldwide Growth of 51% or 3.7 billion since 2009 International markets account for 3 billion, or 28% Other EU markets account for 3.4 billion or 31% Source: Bord Bia 2015

3 Contents Executive Summary 2 Overview 6 Meat & Livestock 14 Beef 15 Pigmeat 19 Sheepmeat 22 Poultry 26 Live Animals 28 Dairy Products & Ingredients 30 Prepared Consumers Foods 36 Prepared Foods 38 Beverages 42 Seafood 46 Edible Horticulture & Cereals 50 Amenity Exports 52 This publication has been produced solely for information purposes and has been prepared on the basis of information which is publicly available, internally generated or from other sources, which are believed to be reliable. Projections and forecasts are, estimates only, based on assumptions involving subjective judgement and based on analysis that may or may not be correct. Reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of the information in this publication and we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained therein. Export Performance and Prospects

4 Executive Summary 51% Rise in food and drink exports since 2009 Exports to the UK increased by an estimated 7% to G4.4 billion IRISH FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS RECORDED THE SIXTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF GROWTH IN 2015, RISING BY 3% TO EXCEED G10.8 BILLION 2 Export Performance and Prospects Performance & Outlook The Irish food and drink sector recorded the sixth consecutive year of export growth in 2015 as increased output in key sectors, favourable exchange rate developments and better returns for beef, seafood and beverages helped to offset a considerable weakening in dairy prices. For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish food and drink exports increased by 3% to exceed G10.8 billion. This represents a new high for exports and marks growth of over 51% or G3.6 billion since The strongest performers in terms of export growth were beverages, beef and seafood. A sharp increase in milk volumes helped offset lower dairy prices while weaker prices negatively affected the value of pigmeat exports. There are a number of factors that point to 2016 being a mixed year in terms of export growth. The pressure on global dairy markets is likely to persist for the early part of 2016 while increased beef export volumes are anticipated as the year progresses. The prepared foods and beverages sectors are likely to face ongoing competitive pressures although the demand for premium products will present further opportunities in key markets. Destinations for Irish Food & Drink Growth of 7% in the value of exports to the United Kingdom (UK) led to the market accounting for 41% of the total at an estimated G4.4 billion. Stronger export values for beef, prepared foods, mushrooms and poultry helped offset lower beverage and dairy values. Little change was recorded in the value of exports to Other European Union (Other EU) markets in 2015 with trade valued at an estimated G3.4 billion or 31% of the total. Increases were recorded in dairy, seafood and Prepared foods. Shipments of Irish food and drink products to International markets showed a modest rise at around G3 billion. This leaves the region accounting for 28% of exports. Trade in 2015 was led by stronger exports of dairy, beverages and beef which offset declines in pigmeat and prepared foods. Dairy accounted for more than 45% of exports to International markets. North America recorded a 19% growth in exports while China and the Middle East also recorded higher exports. This offset a 70% fall in exports to Russia, reflecting ongoing trade suspensions, and reduced trade to Africa. Key drivers of export performance Increased export volumes were recorded across a number of key categories. Milk availability was 11% higher during the first 10 months of 2015 while pigmeat export volumes were up by an estimated 8%. The combined impact of higher output across key sectors is estimated to be in the region of G450 million. The euro weakened 16% relative to the US dollar and 10% relative to sterling in These developments helped to boost the competitiveness of Irish exports by around G950 million. Global agricultural commodity prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index showed a decline of 19% between January and December of Dairy prices were 28% lower followed by sugar at 21% and oils at 19%. However the overall index remains around 25% ahead of the average. Consumer price inflation across the eurozone was relatively static in Mixed trends were evident with countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands showing modest inflation. Food prices were running ahead of overall inflation with a rise of 0.7% evident for the period. Ireland s relative competitiveness continues to improve

5 The value of meat and livestock exports were 2% higher at an estimated G3.7 billion Milk deliveries in Ireland were 11% or almost 600 million litres higher in the first 10 months of 2015 with the figures from the IMD s World Competitiveness Yearbook putting Ireland in 10th place in 2015 compared to 24th in Meat & Livestock Despite the difficult market environment for some meats in 2015, most notably pigmeat, the value of meat and livestock exports, including offals, grew by 2% to G3.7 billion (G3.5 billion when beef offals are excluded). This equates to 34% of total food and drink exports. The value of Irish beef exports stood at G2.41 billion. The volume of beef available for export was around 4% lower at 500,000 tonnes while average prices were 11% higher. Increasing numbers of Irish export meat plants gained approval to supply the United States during the course of 2015 and resulted in around 2,000 tonnes of beef being exported to the market. The value of Irish pigmeat exports was marginally lower at an estimated G570 million. Increased pigmeat export volumes were offset by a drop of 10% in average pig prices. For sheepmeat, a 2% increase in volumes available to export coupled with a rise of 2% in lamb prices led to the value of Irish sheepmeat exports jumping by 5% to reach G230 million. For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish poultry exports increased by 3% to reach G320 million, helped by stronger processed poultry exports. Reduced shipments across all categories of live animals were recorded in For the year the value of Irish livestock exports was down 20% at an estimated G195 million. The prospects for the meat and livestock sector in 2016 suggest increased beef output as the year progresses. The prospects for sheep remain broadly positive and the market for Irish pigmeat is set to be helped by an anticipated reduction in supply. Dairy Products & Ingredients Strong milk production growth in some of the main export regions combined with a slowdown in Chinese import demand and Russian restrictions on dairy imports resulted in the global market experiencing downward pressure for much of Global dairy wholesale prices in December 2015 showed significant declines on 2014 across all dairy product categories and regions with a 10% to 30% decline reported on corresponding 2014 levels. Irish milk supplies were over 11% or 600 million litres higher for the first ten months of This reflected the ending of quotas combined with excellent grass growing conditions for much of the year. The significant increase in Irish output, a change in the product mix and favourable exchange rate movements helped to offset slower international demand to leave the value of Irish dairy and ingredient exports around 4% higher at G3.2 billion. The strongest performing categories were specialised nutritional dairy powders and butter while spreads, whey, chocolate crumb and yogurt all recorded growth, albeit from a smaller base. Specialised nutritional dairy powders continued its growth in export value with higher volumes reflecting significant industry investment. The volume of exports to China increased by almost 40% in Overall exports are estimated to have increased by 25% in value terms. Despite higher volumes, the value of cheese exports declined by around 7% in 2015 to G700 million. Lower THE COMBINED IMPACT OF THE WEAKER EURO RELATIVE TO STERLING AND US DOLLAR IS ESTIMATED AT G950M FOR 2015 Export Performance and Prospects

6 Executive Summary Export volumes of specialised nutritional dairy powders to China increased by almost 40% in 2015 Exports of products covered under the prepared foods category showed little change in 2015 at an estimated G1.8 billion EXPORTS OF VALUE ADDED FOOD AND BEVERAGE PRODUCTS, WHICH ARE CAPTURED UNDER THE NEW, PREPARED CONSUMER FOODS, CATEGORY WERE 7% HIGHER IN 2015 AT AN ESTIMATED G2.5 BILLION 4 Export Performance and Prospects trade to the UK, which accounts for over 60% of exports, was partly offset by a modest rise in exports to other EU markets with some increase also evident to North Africa and the Middle East. The prospects for Irish dairy exports remain challenging, particularly for the early part of A recent report from Rabobank anticipates a gradual improvement in global market demand during the first half of 2016 on the back of modest growth in global dairy consumption and more limited supply growth. This is expected to help price levels as the year progresses. Prepared Consumer Foods A new product category included in Food Wise 2025 is that of Prepared Consumer Foods. This category encompasses value added exports from all food and drink sectors. Exports under this heading put in a strong performance in 2015, rising by 7% to stand at an estimated G2.5 billion. Growth in the Prepared Consumer Foods category was led by bakery, chocolate confectionery, value added meats and seafood. The UK accounts for around 70% of exports within the category with trade 11% higher at G1.7 billion. Exports to other EU markets were 9% higher at G520 million while trade to International markets declined by over 10%. Further growth is anticipated for 2016 with new markets and product innovation likely to be key drivers for exporters. Prepared Foods This category includes a wide range of primary products, which have been further processed and includes ready to eat foods, confectionery and bakery products. Prepared Foods excludes the value added components from other food and drink categories that are included under the broader Prepared Consumer Foods heading. Prepared Food exports showed some decline in 2015 driven by lower exports of dairy based enriched powders, which now accounts for 37% of total exports within the category. Overall, exports of products covered under the prepared foods category marginally lower at an estimated G1.8 billion. The strongest performing categories were bakery and chocolate confectionery while sugar based products also recorded a rise. Lower exports of sauces were recorded while pizzas remained relatively steady. The UK was the highest performing destination with growth of around 18% offsetting a sharp decline in trade to international markets. Trade to the UK was boosted by the euro weakening against sterling. The outlook for prepared food exports is broadly positive for However, the prospects for dairy based enriched powders looks set to remain challenging for the early part of Key drivers of growth will be product development in relation to new products and formats. Beverages The global beverages market showed further growth in 2015 as the market benefited from a continued rise in demand for premium alcoholic products. This reflects growing demand in many developing regions for luxury products and the association of the premium label products with quality and taste. Irish beverage exports put in a robust performance in 2015 driven by ongoing growth in whiskey combined with a further rise in craft exports. Overall, beverage exports are estimated to have increased 10% in 2015 to stand at G1.26 billion.

7 Seafood exports grew by a further 4% in 2015 to reach G560 million The value of edible horticulture and cereals exports increased by 4% to stand at an estimated G240 million Beer and cream liqueurs also recorded some growth while cider exports eased. Exports of non-alcoholic beverages were boosted by strong sales of juices, which offset reduced exports of mineral waters. Exports to the UK were steady at G365 million accounting for around 29% of the total. Increased exports of whiskey, juices and cream liqueurs helped to offset slower exports of mineral water and cider. Exports to other EU markets showed little change at an estimated G250 million. Shipments to International markets increased strongly, largely due to higher whiskey exports. Growth was led by the United States, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. International markets accounted for more than 50% of beverage exports for the first time in The outlook for Irish beverage exports in 2016 looks broadly positive helped by an anticipated further rise in whiskey sales, the ongoing development of emerging markets and the ever increasing range of beverages produced in Ireland. Seafood Seafood exports recorded further growth in 2015, rising by an estimated 4% to reach G560 million. This growth was largely driven by increased unit prices with lower volumes recorded for a number of key species. The main EU markets, namely France, Spain, UK, Italy and Germany continue to dominate seafood exports, accounting for around 55% of the total. France remained the largest export market and continued to show growth while seafood exports to International markets were helped by increased trade to Africa. Overall, exports to international markets grew by more than 20%. Prospects for seafood exports in 2016 remain reasonably positive for most species. Volumes are expected to be boosted by a 48% increase in the horse mackerel quota and higher whitefish quotas while some movement in aquaculture licences is also anticipated. Prospects for prices remain reasonably positive for most species. Edible Horticulture & Cereals The value of edible horticulture and cereals exports increased by 4% to an estimated G240 million in Some reduction in the volume of mushroom exports was offset by favourable exchange rates coupled with growth in cereals. The value of mushroom exports remained steady in 2015, on the back of favourable exchange rates despite reduced volumes to the United Kingdom. The EU supported Just Add Mushrooms campaign continued throughout 2015 and helped to bring growth into the market. Some further continuation of the growth in value and volume of mushroom sales is expected for Overall, prospects for 2016 remain reasonably positive for the category. Amenity Horticulture Exports of amenity horticulture crops were valued at G16 million in 2015 which is an increase of 10% over Prospects for amenity horticulture exports in 2016 look positive as some further growth is anticipated in exports to the UK. Factors driving exports include higher demand for amenity plants, higher quality crops and increased consumer awareness activity. IRISH BEVERAGE EXPORTS PUT IN A ROBUST PERFORMANCE WITH THE VALUE OF EXPORTS INCREASING BY AN ESTIMATED 10% TO STAND AT G1.26 BILLION Export Performance and Prospects

8 Overview INCREASED OUTPUT IN KEY SECTORS, A MORE COMPETITIVE EURO AND BETTER RETURNS FOR BEEF, SEAFOOD AND BEVERAGES BOOSTED THE VALUE OF TRADE FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS IN For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish food and drink exports increased by 3% to exceed G10.8 billion. This represents a new high for exports and marks growth of 51% or G3.6 billion since Much of the growth was recorded in trade to the UK where further weakening in the euro relative to sterling helped improve the competitive position of Irish exports. On an international level favourable exchange rate movement boosted trade to North America in particular while the Middle East and China also recorded strong increases. Good market demand in these regions helped to offset the ongoing challenges evident across other EU markets where consumer sentiment remained fragile. Food and drink exports in 2015 were almost 3.6 billion ahead of 2009 levels Despite the sharp downturn in global dairy prices, increased volumes resulted in dairy exports accounting for 30% of overall exports in 2015 The strongest performers were beef, beverages, seafood and edible horticulture. Slower market demand and weaker prices negatively affected the value of pigmeat exports despite a rise in volumes while live animals showed a significant decline driven largely by a drop in live cattle shipments. Breakdown of exports by category, 2015 (% of total value) Meat & Livestock (incl. offal) 34% Dairy 30% 6 Export Performance and Prospects Irish Food and Drink exports, 2005 to 2015 (Gm) (e) Source: Bord Bia estimates Ed. Hort 2% Seafood 5% Source: Bord Bia estimates Beverages 12% Prepared Foods 17% Growth in Food & Drink exports running higher than total merchandise Relative to 2009 total merchandise exports were an estimated 27% higher in 2015, which compares to growth of over 50% in food and drink exports over the period. Merchandise exports made up some ground in 2015 with CSO figures for

9 2015 Food and drink exports were 51% ahead of 2009 levels $ The euro weakened by 16% relative to the US dollar in 2015 the first 10 months of the year showing a rise of 20% relative to the same period in Trend in Food & Drink versus overall merchandise exports, 2015 vs (% change) Food and Drink 51 Merchandise Source: Bord Bia based on CSO Higher volumes reported in key categories Increased export volumes were available across a number of key categories in Milk deliveries were over 11% higher during the first 10 months of the year Pigmeat export volumes were 8% higher Increased volumes were also evident in a number of key beverage and prepared food categories The combined impact of higher output across the main product categories is estimated to be in the region of G450 million. Currency movements With 41% of exports going to the UK and 28% to markets that predominantly trade in US dollars, any change in exchange rates has the potential to impact on competitiveness. The euro weakened by a further 10% relative to sterling in 2015, while a 16% decline relative to the US dollar was recorded. In December 2015, the euro was over 12% and 8% weaker against the US dollar and sterling respectively. These developments have helped to boost the competitiveness of Irish exports. The combined impact of the weakening in the euro relative to sterling and the US dollar is estimated at almost G950 million. The euro also weakened by 15% against the Chinese yuan while a marginal decline was recorded against the New Zealand dollar. In contrast the strengthening of the euro relative to the Russian rouble and Brazilian real continued with the euro 37% and 17% higher respectively. This reflects the ongoing trading difficulties with Russia and this combined with trade suspensions continues to have a negative impact on trade from Ireland. The anticipated economic developments in these regions over the next months suggests ongoing weakness of the euro relative to sterling and the US dollar. This should help to maintain competitiveness of Irish exports, although it will also have the impact of pushing up import prices for inputs and raw materials. Irish Food and Drink Exports Dairy products & ingredients 2014(p) Gm 2015(e) Gm 2015/2014 % +/- 3,105 3, Beef 2,280 2, Prepared Foods 1,810 1,800-1 Beverages 1,150 1, Pigmeat Seafood Poultry Edible Horticulture & Cereals Sheepmeat Live Animals TOTAL FOOD & DRINKS 10,470 10, Prepared Consumer Foods Exports* 2014 Gm 2015(e) Gm 2015/2014 % +/- 2,330 2, *This section includes Prepared Foods products and Value Added components of other sectors. (For further details, see page 36). Export Performance and Prospects

10 Overview THE UK LED THE GROWTH IN FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS IN 2015, RISING BY 7% TO REACH 4.4 BILLION Key euro exchange rate developments, 2015 (% Change on previous year) US Dollar -10 Sterling Source: Central Bank of Ireland The euro weakened by 10% relative to sterling in Russian Rouble UK leads growth in exports 0 Australian Dollar During the course of 2015 the UK led the growth in exports with little growth recorded in trade to other EU markets. In terms of international markets, a rise of over 19% in the value of trade to North America coupled with significant increases to China and The Middle East helped offset a slowdown to other regions, most notably Africa Brazillian Chinese Real Yuan 0 New Zealand Dollar Market distribution of Irish food and drink exports (%) Source: Bord Bia estimates UK The share of exports destined for the UK increased from 39% to 41% UK Other EU Int. Markets (e) The share of exports destined for the UK recovered from 39% to 41% in The value of this trade increased 7% to reach G4.4 billion. Stronger exports for beef, prepared foods, mushrooms and poultry helped offset reduced trade in beverages and dairy. 8 Export Performance and Prospects

11 Exports to the Netherlands increased by an estimated 14% in 2015 to stand at G665 million The value of exports to international markets showed little change in 2015 with trade worth around G3 billion Other EU The value of exports to other EU markets showed little change in This reflects a weaker euro and a more tentative consumer environment across key EU markets. For the year exports are estimated to have been worth G3.4 billion, which represents 31% of exports. Increases were recorded in dairy, seafood and prepared foods while a decline was evident in meat. Exports were driven by the strong performance of key markets such as the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland and to a lesser extent, Germany, which offset lower trade to France, Italy, Denmark and Sweden. Trends in exports to key European markets, 2015 vs (Gm) Netherlands 665 Germany Spain Poland Source: Bord Bia estimates International markets %CH +14 Shipments of Irish food and drink products outside of Europe showed little change in 2015 as the value of exports stood at an estimated G3 billion. This leaves the region accounting for 28% of exports. Trade in 2015 was led by stronger exports of dairy, beverages and beef which offset declines in pigmeat, prepared foods and seafood. Dairy accounts for more than 45% of exports to International markets with beverages accounting for over 20% EXPORTS TO OTHER EU DESTINATIONS WERE DRIVEN BY KEY MARKETS SUCH AS THE NETHERLANDS, SPAIN, POLAND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT GERMANY, WHICH OFFSET LOWER TRADE TO FRANCE, ITALY, DENMARK AND SWEDEN Oct Export Performance and Prospects

12 Overview FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS TO NORTH AMERICA WERE 19% HIGHER IN 2015 AT G875 MILLION. THIS WAS LED BY THE UNITED STATES, WHICH RECORDED A JUMP OF 40% TO REACH AROUND G750 MILLION Breakdown of exports to International markets in 2015 (Gm) Pigmeat 130 Prepared Foods 540 Seafood 195 Other 45 Dairy 1360 Exports to China were 16% higher driven by increased dairy, pigmeat and to a lesser extent seafood exports Beef 125 Beverages 640 Growth in exports by region, 2015 vs (%) Trade to Russia was negatively affected by ongoing trade suspensions with exports back 70% to around G50 million Nth. America China Middle East Central and Sth America 10 Export Performance and Prospects Source: Bord Bia estimates The growth in exports to international markets was led by North America, which showed a rise of around G130 million to reach almost G870 million. This was driven largely by the United States, which recorded a further jump of 40% to around G750 million. Dairy, beverages and prepared foods were the key drivers of export growth. Exports to China were 16% higher driven by increased dairy and pigmeat and to a lesser extent seafood exports. Trade to the Middle East showed an increase of 12% while exports to Central and South America were 6% higher. Shipments to Russia continued to be negatively affected by trade suspensions with exports falling by an estimated 70% to around G50 million while exports to Africa were down 14% on the back of reduced dairy and prepared foods exports. Source: Bord Bia estimates

13 Data for January to November 2015 shows food price inflation of 0.7% across the Eurozone Ireland s ranking in the IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook has improved from 24th in 2011 to 10th in 2015 Market drivers Overall price inflation across the eurozone was relatively static in Modest inflation was seen in the middle of the year after a first quarter of deflation. Mixed trends were evident with countries such as Germany, France and the Netherlands showing modest inflation while Ireland and Spain recorded some price deflation as the year progressed. Consumer prices in the UK remained static. This data puts consumer price inflation in the eurozone at its lowest level since Food price developments across the Eurozone are running ahead of overall inflation, with a rise of 0.7% evident for the year up to the end of November. Consumer food price index developments, 2015 (% change vs. same month in 2014) Average inflation: 0.7% Jan Source: Eurostat Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Considerable variation was evident across different categories with alcoholic beverages and fish showing the highest level of inflation at 2.2% and 1.5% respectively while bread recorded a modest rise. Milk and dairy products showed price deflation of 1.8% while meat showed little change. The outlook for consumer food prices across the eurozone remains difficult to predict. The forecasts for economic growth in 2016 are relatively uncertain due to heightened global risks and the slower than expected rebound in economic activity to date. These factors are likely to result in little change in consumer confidence levels. Given this backdrop any price inflation across the eurozone is likely to be modest. Competitiveness of the sector The competitiveness of the Irish manufacturing sector as measured by Ireland s Competitiveness Scorecard published by the National Competitiveness Council continues to improve according to the 2015 report. Improvement is most notable in relation to the labour market with a continuation of the downward trend in unemployment, improved job security and Ireland s continued success in export markets has led to a rise in consumer demand. These factors combined with the restoration of the State s borrowing capacity on financial markets and our improving fiscal situation are reflected in Ireland s performance in the various international competitiveness rankings for example, in the IMD s World Competitiveness Yearbook Ireland s ranking has improved from 24th position in 2011 to 10th in While the challenge to remain cost competitive will persist OVERALL PRICE INFLATION ACROSS THE EUROZONE WAS RELATIVELY STATIC DURING FOOD PRICE DEVELOPMENTS ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF OVERALL INFLATION Export Performance and Prospects

14 Overview Despite a further fall in agricultural commodity prices in 2015, the FAO Food Price index remains 25% ahead of the average Dairy prices led the decline in the FAO Food Price Index in 2015, falling by 28% DESPITE A FURTHER FALL IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES IN 2015, THE LATEST FAO/OECD AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK TO 2024 SUGGESTS A BROADLY POSITIVE MARKET ENVIRONMENT, ALBEIT WITH SIGNIFICANT VOLATILITY over the medium term, the progress made over recent years leaves the manufacturing sector in a stronger position to compete. Slowdown in global commodity prices Global agricultural commodity prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index showed a decline of 19% in 2015 relative to This follows smaller declines over the previous two years. However, the overall index remains over 25% higher than the average. During the year, declines were evident across all categories with the largest fall evident in dairy and sugar at 29% and 22% respectively. Looking at December prices compared to a year earlier, meat prices were 23% lower, dairy 14%, cereals 18% and oils 12%. The overall index was 17% below year earlier levels. The FAO Food Price Index fell by 19% during the year to December FAO food price index trends, 2015 versus 2014 ( =100) Source: FAO Dec -14 Overall Meat Dairy Cereals Oils Sugar The global outlook for agricultural commodities remains positive over the medium term, albeit with significant volatility. This volatility seems set to persist for dairy and cereals in the short term. -28 Year The latest FAO/OECD agricultural outlook for the period to 2024, points towards a positive market balance on the back of rising consumption particularly in the developing world. The report suggests that meat and dairy will see further upward trends over the period, which should help present a solid backdrop for Irish food and drink exports Export Performance and Prospects

15 Increased cattle supplies as the year progresses is expected to boost beef export volumes by up to 5% in 2016 The pressure on global dairy markets seems set to persist for the early months of Recent forecasts from Rabobank suggest some recovery towards the middle of the year Prospects for 2016 There are a number of factors that point to 2016 being a mixed year in terms of further growth in the value of food and drink exports. The pressure on global dairy markets due to higher stocks and increased output is likely to impact negatively on global milk prices for the early months of Some further growth is anticipated in Irish milk supplies. Cattle supplies are expected to recover by more than 60,000 head, which will lead to export volumes recovering by around 5%. Much will depend on demand developments in more established markets with consumer sentiment to remain a critical driver. Prepared foods and beverages are likely to face ongoing competitive pressures although the demand for premium products will present further opportunities in key markets. Further strong growth potential exists for whiskey in particular while a number of key prepared food categories such as confectionery, ready meals and bakery are expected to record further growth. THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS THAT POINT TO 2016 BEING A MIXED YEAR IN TERMS OF FURTHER GROWTH IN THE VALUE OF IRISH FOOD AND DRINK EXPORTS Export Performance and Prospects

16 Meat & Livestock 3.7 billion the value of meat and livestock exports, an increase of 2% Exports have increased by 58% or 1.4 billion since 2009 This sector represents 34% of total food and drink exports Irish meat and livestock is exported to 52 markets 54% of Irish beef is destined for the UK market, an estimated 272,000 tonnes Beef 2.4bn Beef exports were valued at 2.4 billion, increase of 6% Pigmeat 570m Pigmeat exports decreased by 2% to 570 million Poultry 320m Poultry exports increased by 3% to reach 320 million Sheepmeat 230m Sheepmeat exports grew by 5% to reach 230 million Livestock 195m Livestock exports declined by 20% to 195 million 14 Performance and Prospects Source: Bord Bia 2015

17 Meat & Livestock Exports were 2% higher at G3.7 billion Beef Exports increased by 6% to G2.41 billion DESPITE THE DIFFICULT MARKET ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME MEATS IN 2015, MOST NOTABLY PIGMEAT, THE VALUE OF MEAT AND LIVESTOCK EXPORTS, INCLUDING OFFALS GREW BY 2% TO G3.7 BILLION. Key drivers of export performance Cattle supplies 5% lower. Stable EU demand for beef but slow demand for pigmeat. Pig supplies up 6%. Good trade for sheepmeat. Increase in processed poultry exports. Trend in meat & livestock exports*, 2005 to date (Gm) (e) Increase of 56% or 1.3bn since Beef Tighter finished cattle supplies in Ireland, a rise in cattle prices and some stability in beef consumption across most export markets helped exports in Key beef export market developments in 2015 Rise of 2% in EU beef output. Stabilisation in EU consumption. Small decline in EU beef imports while exports increased by almost a quarter. Irish beef export availability 4% lower. European male cattle prices marginally higher. Export meat plant cattle supplies in Ireland are estimated to have decreased by more than 5% in 2015 to around 1.56 million head. Reductions were evident across all categories with the exception of steers. An increase of over 2% in average carcase weights offset the lower throughput somewhat to leave net production at an estimated 560,000 tonnes, including local abattoir output. With domestic consumption levels unchanged, the volume of beef available for export stood at just over 500,000 tonnes, some 4% below 2014 levels. This decline in volumes was offset by a rise of more than 11% in average cattle prices. This led to the value of Irish beef exports showing a 6% rise, standing at G2.41 billion when offals are included. Trade for fresh, frozen and processed beef products was 7% higher at G2.19 billion. Irish Meat & Livestock Exports 2014 Gm 2015(e) Gm 2015/2014 % +/- Beef (incl. offals) 2,280 2, Pigmeat Poultry Sheepmeat Live Animals TOTAL MEAT & LIVESTOCK 3,635 3, Source: Bord Bia estimates *includes beef offals Export Performance and Prospects

18 Meat & Livestock The UK remains the main market for Irish beef accounting for 52% of export values Exports to other EU markets stood at G1 billion in 2015 THE VOLUME OF IRISH BEEF EXPORTS WAS 4% LOWER IN 2015 AT AN ESTIMATED 500,000 TONNES WITH LOWER SUPPLIES MORE THAN OFFSETTING HIGHER AVERAGE CARCASE WEIGHTS 16 Export Performance and Prospects Beef Exports (Gm) 2014 Gm Markets for Irish beef 2015 (e) Gm 2015/2014 % +/- 2,280 2, The retail market across Europe continues to be driven by a search for value among consumers with beef facing strong competition from cheaper protein sources such as pork and poultry. Similar trends are evident at foodservice level. Origin of meat remains an important priority for many consumers and meat retailers are focussing on local sourcing to build trust in the category. Volumes of Irish beef destined for the UK was largely unchanged in 2015 at an estimated 272,000 tonnes. This equates to just over 54% of total exports. UK beef consumption eased marginally in 2015 with imported beef remaining competitively priced. In value terms, exports were worth almost G1.1 billion. After a significant rise in 2014, exports to other EU markets declined by an estimated 8% in 2015 to stand at 214,000 tonnes. Lower exports were recorded to most markets, particularly France, Italy and Scandinavia. However, this was offset somewhat by steady trade to Germany and a rise in exports to Belgium. Trade was valued at around G1 billion. Exports of Irish beef to International markets were more than 6% lower in 2015 at around 17,000 tonnes and was valued at around G60 million. The absence of Russia was offset by some recovery in exports to Switzerland while the opening of the US market also helped the trade. Increasing numbers of Irish export meat plants gained approval to supply the United States during the course of 2015 and resulted in around 2,000 tonnes of beef being exported to the market. Similarly, shipments to Asian markets such as the Philippines recovered as the year progressed and recorded increases for the year as a whole. Distribution of Irish beef exports (% in value terms) UK Other EU Int. Markets Source: Bord Bia estimates Outlook for (e) The prospects for the EU beef market in 2016 remain mixed. Preliminary forecasts show beef output in the EU-15 region is expected to remain relatively steady. Growth in production is expected in France, Denmark, the UK and Spain. In contrast, production is pointing towards some decline in Italy and Germany. Following a stabilisation in consumption in 2015, little change is expected in However, much will depend on consumer spending levels with many key countries reporting lower retail sales over recent months.

19 Brazilian exports are forecast to rise by 4% in 2016 Irish beef exports are forecast to be in the region of 525,000 tonnes in 2016, a rise of around 5% The re-opening of trade with Turkey coupled with increased exports to African and Asian markets has helped maintain trade levels with the EU remaining a net exporter. However, the trade situation with Russia has negatively impacted on volumes as the market had accounted for up to 25% of EU exports over recent years. Current indications suggest that it could be the latter half of 2016 before any relaxation in restrictions takes place. In the United States, beef supplies are set to recover by 2% while Australian production is likely to be constrained due to herd rebuilding with a decline in excess of 10% forecast. In Brazil, supplies are expected to remain flat, however, exports are forecast to rise by 4% in 2016 with more volumes expected to go to China with a weakening Brazilian Real expected to boost competitiveness. With little change in global supplies overall, prices are expected to remain relatively stable internationally. Key beef market drivers for 2016 Steady EU beef production. Stable EU consumer demand anticipated. Recovery in global supplies. Rise of up to 5% in Irish cattle supplies. Recovery in Irish cattle supplies An increase of almost 28,000 head in live cattle exports in 2014 helped partly offset a rise of more than 100,000 head in calf registrations. However, this increase points to a pick-up in finished cattle supplies as 2016 progresses. Figures from the Department of Agriculture s AIM database for September 1st 2015 show a decline of 37,000 head in the number of male cattle aged months while numbers in the months category were 36,000 head higher relative to a year earlier. Female numbers in the months age bracket were 35,000 head lower while numbers of heifers aged months were 30,000 head higher. Taking these figures into account, supplies at export plants are expected to be tight in the first half of 2016 before recovering in the second half to leave supplies for 2016 up between 60,000 and 80,000 head. Following two years of growth in carcase weights some stability is anticipated in 2016, however much will depend on weather conditions throughout the year. These developments would leave export availability standing at around 525,000 tonnes, a rise of around 5%. Factors affecting 2016 Irish finished cattle supplies Increase of 28,000 head in live exports in Rise of 100,000 in 2014 calf registrations. Increased retention of breeding heifers on dairy farms. IRISH FINISHED CATTLE SUPPLIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER BY 60,000 TO 80,000 HEAD IN 2016 TO AROUND 1.63 MILLION HEAD Export Performance and Prospects

20 Meat & Livestock Figures from the DAFM AIM database for September show a rise of 66,000 head in the number of cattle in the months age bracket The Irish R3 steer price was 103% of the EU 15 average male R3 price in 2015 IRISH MALE CATTLE PRICES STTOD AT 103% OF THE EU-15 AVERAGE AND 83% OF THE UK PRICE IN 2015 Trends in cattle numbers by age, Sept 1st 2015 (change in head vs. 2014) mths 6-12 mths mths Source: Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine Cattle price developments mths Males mths Females mths During 2015 Irish male cattle prices averaged 103% of the EU average compared to 99% in The average male cattle prices across the EU in 2015 showed a marginal rise and stood at G3.91/kg. Male cattle prices in the UK showed an 11% rise reaching G4.82/kg with the Irish equivalent price standing at 83% of this figure. Irish R3 steers as % of EU-15 weighted R3 male cattle prices, 2006 to date (e) Looking ahead to 2016 it is anticipated that tighter Irish cattle supplies particularly in the first half of the year and a stable demand situation across Europe will underpin price levels. It is also hoped to build on exports to third country markets outside of the EU. 18 Export Performance and Prospects

21 Pigmeat Exports were 2% lower at G570 million The volume of Irish pigmeat exports were 8% higher in 2015 at an estimated 230,000 tonnes Pigmeat An 8% rise in domestic output, an increase of 3% in EU output and a more difficult global market as a result of the Russian trade situation led to a challenging market environment for Irish pigmeat in This is reflected in pig producer prices, with Irish prices down by 10% for the year at G1.43/kg while EU prices were 11% lower. Key pigmeat export market developments in 2015 Difficult international market conditions. Increased EU production. Slow consumer demand in Europe. EU pig prices down by 11%, Irish prices 10% lower. Higher pig supplies in Ireland Export meat plant pig supplies in Ireland are estimated to have increased by around 6% in 2015 to reach 3.16 million head This reflects a rise in finished pig supplies on the back of a 3% increase in the breeding herd in 2014 coupled with increased productivity per sow. Supplies were also boosted by a 4% decline in live exports. An increase of almost 3% in carcase weights was also recorded. This left production for the year at around 275,000 tonnes. Contrasting trends in retail sales Retail sales of pigmeat on the Irish market showed mixed trends in Pork sales for the year up to the 6th December were back by around 6% in volume terms with all key consumer measures showing reductions. Retail sales of sausages were relatively steady while bacon sales in volume terms increased by 2%. This was largely due to stronger rasher sales with shoppers visiting the category more frequently. Overall for the full year 2015, it is estimated that pigmeat consumption was down 1% at 149,000 tonnes. Value of exports decline Pigmeat imports are estimated to have fallen by 6% in 2015 to around 99,000 tonnes cwe. When combined with higher domestic production and stable consumption, it resulted in the volume of pigmeat available to export rising by 8% to almost 230,000 tonnes cwe. However, lower pig prices left the value of Irish pigmeat exports down by 2% in 2015 at G570 million. Pigmeat Exports (Gm) 2014 Gm 2015(e) Gm 2015/2014 % +/ A RISE IN VOLUMES WAS OFFSET BY A DECLINE IN AVERAGE PIG PRICES TO LEAVE PIGMEAT EXPORTS DOWN 2% AT G570 MILLION Export Performance and Prospects

22 Meat & Livestock IRISH PIGMEAT SHIPMENTS TO THE UK JUMPED BY 6% IN 2015, HELPED BY FAVOURABLE EXCHANGE RATES Markets for Irish pigmeat Pigmeat exports to the UK were worth an estimated G350 million in 2015, up 2% on year earlier levels Irish pigmeat exports to the UK were helped by favourable exchange rates in 2015, which led to a 6% jump in shipments to 90,000 tonnes. The value of this trade is estimated at almost g350 million which is a 2% rise on year earlier levels. Exports to Other EU markets showed a further rise in 2015 driven mainly by a strong increase in shipments to Germany, Sweden, Italy and France. However this was partly offset by reduced trade to Denmark and Belgium. For the year, exports to the Continent reached 60,000 tonnes with the value of trade falling by 6% to over g90 million. Exports of Irish pigmeat to International markets performed strongly despite the absence of the Russian market. China remains the second most important market for Irish pigmeat, with exports reaching over 40,000 tonnes reflecting the ongoing increase in domestic demand. As a result of the Russian market being effectively closed to Irish exporters since January 2014, product that would usually be destined for that market has been redirected to different locations around South East Asia. Slower demand from Japan has been offset by increased export activity to Australia. For the full year exports of Irish pigmeat to international markets are estimated to have grown by 3% to around 80,000 tonnes. This trade was valued at an estimated g130 million. Distribution of Irish pigmeat exports (% of value) UK Other EU Int. Markets Source: Bord Bia estimates Outlook for 2016 International markets accounted for 23% of total pigmeat exports and were worth an estimated G130 million (e) The market environment for the pigmeat sector looks set to remain challenging in The ongoing absence of the Russian market combined with reduced demand from certain Asian countries will have some negative impact. However, production levels are expected to slow down in both Ireland and across the EU as the year progresses. This coupled with the current weakness in the Euro should help make Irish exports more competitive. According to the EU Commission production is expected to slow down during the first half of 2016 reflecting a 1% decrease in the EU breeding herd in the June 2015 livestock 20 Export Performance and Prospects

23 US pigmeat production is set to rise by almost 2% in 2016 Sow numbers in China were 14% lower in August 2015 and while restocking has commenced, domestic output is likely to be at best maintained in 2016 survey. The signals for the second half of 2016 suggest that there will be some reduction in supplies given the current weakness in producer prices and profitability which is expected to lead to some further culling in the EU breeding herd. In the United States, the market is stabilising with modest herd growth. This reflects some recovery from the recent PEDv outbreaks and a return to growth in consumer demand. Production is expected to rise by 2% in 2016 driven by herd expansion and rising consumer demand. The main beneficiary from the Russian import restrictions has been Brazil with over half of Brazilian exports destined for the market. Production is forecast to rise by a further 2% in 2016, which should boost export volumes, although much will depend on currency developments. In China, sow numbers were back 14% to 38.6 million head in August 2015 compared to previous year levels. However herd replenishment has started, albeit at a slow rate. On the back of tight supplies throughout the year coupled with the depreciation of the Euro, Chinese imports for 2015 are expected to reach a record high, exceeding the 2013 level of 1.4 million tonnes. Rabobank predict that tight pork supplies will continue up until the second half of Global pigmeat production forecast trends, 2016 (projected % change on 2015 levels) World Russia USA Brazil China EU Canada Source: Bord Bia based on USDA/GIRA Factors affecting 2016 pigmeat prospects Slowdown in EU output. Euro exchange rate against the US dollar. Mixed demand in Asia. Russian restrictions to persist. Some decline in Irish supplies. A DECLINE IN BOTH THE EU AND IRISH PIG BREEDING HERDS IS SET TO RESULT IN LOWER OUTPUT AS 2016 PROGRESSES Export Performance and Prospects

24 Meat & Livestock EU sheepmeat imports were 6% higher in the first 8 months of 2015 Sheepmeat Exports were 5% higher at G230m IRISH SHEEPMEAT EXPORTS CONTINUED TO PERFORM WELL IN 2015 AS A MORE POSITIVE PRICE ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOURABLE EXCHANGE RATES HELPED EXPORT VALUES Lower Irish pig supplies On the back of a 2% decline in the Irish breeding herd in the June 2015 pig survey, Irish production is expected to fall marginally in This will have some impact on export availability. Both China and the UK will remain key markets for Irish exports. Some return to more normal trading conditions is expected in Japan, which should boost exports. South East Asian markets such as South Korea and the Philippines are showing a strong recovery in production following major disease outbreaks, which is expected to result in reduced import demand in Other markets that are expected to perform strongly include the US for ribs and Australia for middle cuts. The extension of market access to the Philippines until August 2016 will also offer another outlet for trade. The recent introduction of the EU s Private Storage Aid scheme on the 4th January 2016 is expected to help put a floor underneath EU prices to coincide when EU prices are traditionally weak. The latest Rabobank agri commodity outlook for grain prices remains relatively unchanged on the back of continued strong yields globally which should help underpin competitive feed prices. Sheepmeat Irish sheepmeat exports continued to perform well in 2015 as a more positive price environment helped export values. The weakening of the euro against sterling also boosted the relative competitiveness of Irish lamb in key markets. Key sheepmeat export market developments in 2015 Recovery in EU production and consumption. Rise in NZ shipments to EU. Irish supplies marginally higher and carcase weights up by 2%. Sheepmeat output in the EU is estimated to have recovered by 1% in 2015 to approximately 753,000 tonnes. The rise in 2015 was largely driven by higher output in the UK and Ireland coupled with stable Spanish production. Some of this was offset by marginally lower French output. EU imports of sheepmeat were 6% higher during the first eight months of This reflects increased frozen imports from New Zealand which more than offset some reduction in shipments from Australia. Libya continues to be the main destination for EU exports. However, a decline of almost 19% in shipments was reported for the first 8 months of Similarly exports to Hong Kong showed a sharp drop. However, this has been partly offset by increased exports to Jordan, Lebanon and Switzerland. Overall EU exports are estimated to have declined over 25% in Export Performance and Prospects