Air Cargo Market Outlook. Overview of the Airbus Cargo Global Market Forecast

Transcription

1 Air Cargo Market Outlook Overview of the Airbus Cargo Global Market Forecast

2 Recent years have not been kind to air cargo $ Drop in air freight demand Air freight overcapacity More than 90 large freighters grounded High fuel price Declining yields However cargo traffic growth is coming back! Source: IATA, ACAS, CargoIS. Large freighters: 747F & MD11. Parked aircraft data as of September Page 2

3 but today the air freight industry is growing again Monthly air freight evolution Billion FTKs (Freight tonne kilometres) growth rate estimate: 4.7% Air freight volumes just reached again the 2011 peak Growth drivers: Regional traffic Express traffic Emerging economies Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Source: Seabury, IATA, Airbus Page 3

4 Time sensitive express goods proved more resilient to the crisis International air freight growth yearoveryear evolution (%) 30% Express 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 5% 10% 11% 4% General Cargo 1% 3% 7% 20% 25% 8% 1% 4% 5% 5% 0% Express Cargo grew 50% in 7 years General cargo stagnated in the last 7 years 15% 12% Source: Seabury Page 4

5 Freight traffic growth and GDP are closely linked GDP and FTKs year on year growth evolution GDP 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% GDP FTK FTK 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2014 YoY growth (estimates) GDP 2.6% FTK 4.7% Together traffic and world GDP are recovering 2% 5% 4% 10% 6% 15% est Source: DOT, IATA, IHS Global Insight Page 5

6 World GDP is set to nearly double over 20 years Total worldwide GDP evolution Real in $US trillion Distribution of worldwide GDP History Developing Emerging Advanced 34% Forecast 47% Developing Emerging Advanced 62% 4% 34% % 20 62% 49% 47% Emerging economies will account for almost half of world GDP in % 2033 Source: IHS Global Insight Page 6

7 Cargo traffic and world trade are also well linked World trade and FTKs growth evolution 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% World Trade FTK World trade shows continuous signs of improvement World trade is driven by emerging markets, which are experiencing solid growth momentum 5% 10% 15% est. Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus Page 7

8 World trade is set to more than double by 2033 Total world international trade evolution (Trillion $US) 60 Developing Emerging 50 Advanced 40 History Forecast x3 World trade will grow on average 4.3% over the next 20 years Emerging countries trade to almost triple over the next 20 years In the future, the traditional air cargo trade links will further diversify Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus, Seabury Page 8

9 New trade links will alter the current trunk routes World trade in 2013 and 2033 by region Trade (billion $US) 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Asia/Pacific Europe North America Latin America Africa CIS 2013 trade 2033 trade Traffic within AsiaPacific will be equivalent to PRC North America flow Latin America and Africa will also drive growth Middle East Geographic locations for supply and demand will be different traffic and cargo capacity will follow Source: IHS Global Insight Page 9

10 Africa, Middle East and Latin America to lead growth along with AsiaPacific GDP growth rate, historical and forecast 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 4.4% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% Mature economies GDP to grow at 2.1% Rest of the world to grow at 4.8% Asymmetric economic growth will alter cargo traffic 0% Africa Asia/Pacific Middle East Latin America CIS North America Europe Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus Page 10

11 Global supply: production centres will shift even further into emerging economies Industrial Production by market (base year 2013 = 100) X1.5 X1.9 X2.7 Further outsourcing of production to low labour cost countries More market fragmentation will be experienced New routes will add to traditional EastWest trunk routes 0 Advanced Developing Emerging In the future, air cargo traffic between production centres will be redefined Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus Page 11

12 Global demand: purchasing power will follow suit 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 Global Middle Class (Millions of people) 2,356 5,375 4,450 X2.3 X3.2 Emerging countries Middle class in mature economies will stagnate Middle class in emerging countries will triple 2,000 1, , North America Europe 7,200 33% 8,500 63% World Population % of world population Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus Middleclass: Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP) Page 12

13 Emerging economies are not only located in AsiaPacific Population in emerging countries in million people Eastern Europe & CIS 500 million people 60 million people Middle East 3500 million people AsiaPacific Latin America Growing population and consumption will drive trade and air freight 430 million people Africa Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus Page 13

14 GMF freight forecast overview 20 years freighter aircraft demand forecast of jet freighters over 10 tonnes Traffic forecast modeling 150 distinct traffic flows Fleet buildups covering 197 freight carriers Freighters fleet divided in 3 segments: Small jet freighters: 1030 tonnes Midsize freighters: 3080 tonnes Large freighters: >80 tonnes Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 14

15 4.5% world FTK growth, driven by the strong traffic growth of emerging countries Freight traffic growth, domestic + international FTKs (billions) History Forecast Growth Rate Advanced Advanced CAGR 2.7% Emerging Emerging CAGR 6.2% Advanced Emerging CAGR 4.9% 80% 20 year world annual FTK growth 4.5 % Total traffic growth includes main deck and belly capacity Emerging Advanced CAGR 5.0% Future traffic with emerging economies will alter today s freighter fleets and networks Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 15

16 Belly capacity to capture market shares over main deck Worldwide share of belly vs dedicated cargo traffic Estimates FTKs (billion) Dedicated freighters Belly cargo Cargo traffic growth 4.5% 56% Due to the faster expansion of passenger traffic, belly capacity will capture market shares Impact is mainly on long haul flows and larger freighters % Belly traffic growth 4.9% Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 16

17 Belly shift will impact particularly long haul flows Share of belly vs dedicated cargo traffic Estimated FTKs (billion) Dedicated freighters Belly cargo Short haul <1,500nm Medium haul 1,500nm< & <5,000nm Long Haul >5,000nm Cargo growth 4.8% p.a Cargo growth 3.4% p.a % Cargo growth 4.7% p.a. 65% 0 43% 45% FTK 2013 FTK % FTK 2013 FTK % FTK 2013 FTK 2033 Belly growth 3.6% p.a. Belly growth 4.9% p.a. Belly growth 5.6% p.a. Page 17

18 Freighter fleet will increase to almost 2700 aircraft over 20 years Freighter fleet 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,605 2,645 Growth 1040 Conversion % of deliveries are for replacement Future fleet will be a mix of new built and converted freighters 1,500 Replacement 1, ,318 Stay in service Beginning New Built 803 Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 18

19 The future freighter fleet distribution will reflect the growing influence of emerging markets World fleet 2033: : North America Europe & CIS 86 Latin America 49 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific North America fleet is mainly a replacement market Asia Pacific fleet is set to triple as growth market Source: Airbus GMF 2014, ASCEND Page 19

20 800 new built freighters to be delivered over the next 20 years Freighter deliveries over the next 20 years 1,500 1, New freighters Conversions Midsize drivers Replacement for: US, EU Large growth in Asia Pacific New routes in Middle East, Latin America, Africa Large freighters will face increasing competition from belly capacity Small MidSize Large 10t < payload < 30t 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 20

21 Airbus 2014 forecast key numbers 20 year annual FTK growth 20 year demand for aircraft deliveries Business volume for new freighters Proportion of future freighters Total 2358 Small 24% 4.5% New 803 $210bn Midsize Large 47% 29% Source: Airbus GMF 2014 Page 21

22 Airbus recognises the need for midsize freighters Nearly 50% of all freighters will be midsize The A330200F is the most modern midsize freighter on the market A330 Freighters: From short, regional express routes to long haul general cargo Page 22

23 The A330F concept: Connecting diverse economies with diverse networks 204,447 flight hours 59,614 takeoffs 99.5% reliability Flying EastWest, NorthSouth, longhaul, shorthaul, regional operations and to new markets Source: Airbus (Data up to September 2014 OR = >15 delays + Cancellations + Diversions + IFTBs Page 23

24 Today s large freighters only work on the heaviest trade lanes Costs per tonne carried COC*/t $2,300 $2,100 $1,900 $1,700 $1,500 $1,300 $1,100 $900 $700 $500 A330200F 35% High risk 777F 7478F $ As the global economy changes shape, airlines must adapt their capacity and network Demand (Tonnes) Large freighters need high demand and payloads all year Midsize freighters are more efficient when fuel, demand or yields fluctuate COC*: Cash Operating Costs Includes Fuel, Maintenance, Nav&Landing fees, Crew costs 3,000nm sector JAR 5% flight profile Page 24

25 The onetypefitsall air cargo model no longer works 100t+ freighters Midsized freighters Belly cargo For a limited number of high demand trunk routes Challenged by growing belly lift on longer hauls When belly cargo is non existent or insufficient For diversified networks A flexible option for a changing industry Basic cargo offering: limited cost, limited risk Growing available capacity on long haul trunk routes Page 25

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