Beef Cattle Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Beef Cattle Market Outlook By Anne Wasko Market Analyst June

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3 Expansion in the US but not in Canada SUPPLY STORY

4 Million Head US beef cow herd added over 1M on Jan 1 (+3.4%) U.S. Beef Cow Inventory January to 2018P P +2% (600K) Year Source: USDA, Cattlefax

5 P Million Head Present data supports continued herd expansion in U.S U.S. Commercial Cow Slaughter 1980 to 2017P - YTD beef cow sltr +6% (not large enough to suggest slowdown in expansion) - YTD hfr sltr ratio 32.3% (smallest since 1974) - COF hfrs 31.7% (2 nd smallest next to last year) - Pasture conditions rated 66% gd/excl, 63% LY, 53% 10 yr Year Source: USDA, Cattlefax

6 Million Head Canadian beef cows unchanged 5.5 Canadian Beef Cow Numbers January to M M Source: Statistics Canada Year

7 87% of the beef cow herd in W Can Canadian Beef Cows by Province MB 11% QC & AP 6% ON 7% BC 5% AB 41% SK 30% 70% of dairy cows in ON & QC

8 Thousand Head AB & SK beef cows between mil for 6 years now! 4000 Alberta & Saskatchewan Beef Cows January to Source: Statistics Canada Year

9 Thousand Head Replacement Heifers +4% on Jan Canadian Beef Heifers (Breeding) January to 2016 Year This amounts to 20,000 hd. Source: Statistics Canada

10 Thousand Head YTD Cow Marketings +8% Canadian Slaughter Cow Marketings Slaughter Exports P Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, AAFC Year

11 Thousand Head YTD Heifer Marketings -10% 1750 Canadian Heifer Marketings 1976 to 2017P P Year Source: Statistics Canada, CBGA, AAFC, CanFax

12 Heifer placements into feedlots +34% AB/SK Heifer Placements J F M A M J J A S O N D

13 Disposal rate 0.92:1 expansion?? Canadian Female to Male Disposal Ratio Slaughter + Exports - Imports (All Classes) 20 yr average = YTD -2% Source: AAFC, CBGA, CanFax

14 Billion Pounds Small Tonnage in Rearview Mirror Now 28 U.S. Beef Production 1970 to 2016P % Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year

15 Billion Pounds 2015 Pork Production Jumped 7% LY, Proj +2% TY U.S. Pork Production Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year

16 Billion Pounds Poultry Production also record large U.S. Broiler Production LY +4% TY +3% Source: USDA, Cattlefax Year

17 Billion Pounds Can Beef Production -9% in 2015 but expected slightly larger in Canadian Beef Production P YTD +6% Source: Canfax, AAFC, Statistics Canada

18 Pounds We made cattle big last year! 32 lbs! Today s weight still 24 lbs heavier Canadian Weekly Steer Carcass Weight In 6 wks, wts were reduced by 80 lbs! 5 yr avg Source: AAFC, CBGA Week

19 Margin Operators margin shift has happened! FEED COSTS & MARGINS

20 80/81 82/83 84/85 86/87 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17p Billion Bushels Latest USDA report expecting record production U.S. Corn Production 80/81-16/17P Crop Years Source: USDA Crop Year

21 88/89 90/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17P Percent Stocks to use ratio expected to be 13% 30% US Corn Stocks to Use Ratio 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Crop Year Like beef, grain prices are watching global situation: excessive moisture in Argentina & drought in Brazil. U.S. crops are off to a good start.

22 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Nearly 2 years of feeding disadvantage based on Cdn barley vs US corn 160% 150% 140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% ALBERTA FEEDING ADVANTAGE Omaha corn vs Lethbridge barley Advantage Disadvantage Source: Canfax & Cattle-fax

23 J/11 A J O J/12 A J O J/13 A J O J/14 A J O J/15 A J O J/16 A J O $ per head 10 consecutive months of feeding losses in Canada $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 ($100) ($200) ($300) ($400) ($500) ($600) Feedlot - Profit/Loss Margin Yearling Steer - Jan 2011 to current Source: CanFax

24 J/11 A J O J/12 A J O J/13 A J O J/14 A J O J/15 A J O J/16 A J O Cdn $ per cwt Cattle Feeders have breakeven down from $204 in Feb to $146 for Oct Projected Break Even (out month) Yearling Steer - Jan 2011 to Oct 2016 $220 $210 $200 $190 $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $58/cwt X 1400 = $800/hd Source: CanFax Trends West

25 3 parts to demand retail, food service & export DEMAND

26 Demand Index (2000=100) Retail Demand +7% (dfl retail price +14% & consumption -7%) 130 Canadian Retail Beef Demand Index Source: Statistics Canada, CanFax, US Beef Demand Study Group

27 Jan-08 Jul Jan-09 Jul Jan-10 Jul Jan-11 Jul Jan-12 Jul Jan-13 Jul Jan-14 Jul Jan-15 Jul Jan-16 Jul Canadian $ per kg Retail Beef prices remain record high Monthly Canadian Retail Beef Price $22 $21 $20 $19 $18 $17 $16 $15 $14 $13 $12 $11

28 $/cwt Spring grilling demand is coming to an end $280 US Weekly Choice Cutout $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 Source: USDA

29 tonnes Canadian 2016 Beef Exports YTD +6% Canadian Beef Exports +8% % U.S. Japan Mexico China, HK P

30 tonnes Canadian 2016 Beef Imports YTD unchanged Canadian Beef Imports % n/c -7% U.S. Aust NZ Argentina Uruguay Brazil

31 Bil lbs 10% of US beef production exported (Canada was 44% LY) US Beef Trade % +8% 1.5 Exports P Source: USDA 2016YTD exports -5%, imports -21%

32 Retail Beef to Pork ratio now extreme 175% Beef:Pork Retail Price Ratio 165% 155% 145% 135% 125% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec per cap pork consumption +9.5% Beef was -8%

33 Cycle Highs in, Now what? PRICE OUTLOOK

34 J/98 J/99 J/00 J/01 J/02 J/03 J/04 J/05 J/06 J/07 J/08 J/09 J/10 J/11 J/12 J/13 J/14 J/15 J/16 US $/cwt Watch U.S. pricing $180 US Fed Steer Price $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40

35 Cdn $ - US terms Understand the impact of the dollar! $1.05 Weekly Canadian Dollar $1.00 $0.95 $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $ % increase Source: Bank of Canada

36 Million Head U.S. COF on May 1 +1% US Monthly Cattle on Feed 5 yr ave Apr placements +7% May expected +9% 9 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

37 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Thousand Head May 1 AB/SK COF +8%. Feeders stayed in W Canada last fall & so far this year 1050 Alberta and Saskatchewan Cattle on Feed 5 yr ave Source: CanFax COF

38 Thousand Head Feeder Cattle exports -43% YTD 700 Canadian Feeder Cattle Exports P Year Source: Statistics Canada

39 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cdn $ per cwt Feeder Basis solidly stronger than previous years $10 $6 $2 ($2) ($6) ($10) ($14) ($18) ($22) ($26) ($30) ($34) W Can 850 lb Feeder Steer Basis Source: CanFax 3 yr ave

40 J/11 M S J/12 M S J/13 M S J/14 M S J/15 M S J/16 M S Cdn $ per cwt Fed cattle prices set to trade lower in Q3 Alberta Fed Steer Prices $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 Source: CanFax

41 Cdn $ per cwt Annual forecast 15% lower in 2016 $200 $180 Alberta Fed Steer Prices 2016P = $158 ($ ) $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $ P Year

42 J/10 M S J/11 M S J/12 M S J/13 M S J/14 M S J/15 M S J/16 M S Cdn $ per cwt Any seasonal rally will be subdued $315 Alberta 850 lb Steer Price Jan 2010-current 2016 $265 $215 $165 $115 $65 Source: CanFax

43 P Cdn $ per cwt Current forecast 18-20% lower for 16 $260 $240 $220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 W Canada 850 lb Feeder Steer Price 2016P $180

44 J/10 M S J/11 M S J/12 M S J/13 M S J/14 M S J/15 M S J/16 M S Cdn $ per cwt Calf prices to follow 2017 LC futures $380 Alberta lb Steer Jan 2010-current 2016 $330 $280 $230 $180 $130 $80 Source: CanFax

45 $/cwt Present market suggests 30% lower 300 W Can Oct/Nov lb Steer p

46 Cdn $ per cwt Slaughter cows narrow range so far $155 $145 $135 $125 $115 $105 $95 $85 $75 $65 $55 Western Canada D1,2 Weekly Cow Price

47 Bottom line U.S. beef herd still expanding, Canada not More protein (all 3 meats) available in 2016 Sluggish global economy, exchange rate impact. Watch margin shift who has the leverage in the chain Demand has been exceptional but that s changing quickly. Will need to buy some back as supplies increase, especially pork & poultry.

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