2015: A year of plenty

Transcription

1 BP Statistical Review of World Energy June : A year of plenty Spencer Dale, group chief economist bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016

2 Key global trends Energy demand in transition China s growth in energy demand slowing increased global focus on energy efficiency Technological advances driving energy supplies US shale revolution renewable energy BP 2015

3 Growth in GDP and energy Annual change, % 8% 6% Energy intensity GDP Energy Energy intensity 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

4 Primary energy growth Annual change, % 6% 5% 4% 3% 10-year average % 1% 0% -1% World OECD China Other

5 Primary energy growth Fuel increments Annual change, Mtoe year average Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewables Total

6 Energy prices Index (Jan 2014 = 100) Prices by fuel Coal Gas 50 Oil 0 янв.14 янв.15 янв.16

7 Oil and refining

8 Oil market in 2014 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average year average

9 Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average year average

10 Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average year average

11 Oil market in 2014 and 2015 Demand Supply Annual change, Mb/d 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5 Global growth OPEC Importers Exporters Non-OPEC 10-year average year average

12 Oil inventories Mbbls OECD commercial inventories range average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: includes data from the International Energy Agency OECD/IEA 2016.

13 Oil price $/bbl 140 Dated Brent Annual average Source: includes data from Platts

14 Past episodes of large oil price falls Cumulative change in real prices from initial year 50% 25% % -25% -50% -75% Years Note: Oil prices have been converted into 2015 dollars to show changes in prices adjusted for inflation.

15 Natural gas

16 Natural gas demand and supply Regional demand growth Annual change, % Annual change, % -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% Regional supply growth -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU 10-year average World Middle East Africa S. & C. America North America Asia Pacific Europe & Eurasia of which EU

17 US electricity sector Electricity generation by fuel Electricity generation cost by fuel GWh $/MWh Coal Gas Gas Coal Source: includes data from EIA, Pira, Platts

18 Natural gas prices $/mmbtu Spot LNG prices UK Japan YTD Source: includes data from BAFA, ICIS Heren Energy

19 Natural gas prices $/mmbtu European prices Dutch spot Oil-linked index Russian export proxy* 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 *Estimate derived from reported Average German Import Price and trade volumes.

20 Coal

21 Global coal market Annual change, % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Global coal demand growth Rest of world China World -4%

22 Non-fossil fuels

23 Speed of transition Shares of global primary energy 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Years from reaching 1% share Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2008) (projected) Note: - For sources of data pre-1965 see Economic development and the demand for energy by Ruehl et al, Energy Policy, 2012.

24 Speed of transition Shares of global primary energy 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Years from reaching 1% share Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2008) (projected) Note: - For sources of data pre-1965 see Economic development and the demand for energy by Ruehl et al, Energy Policy, 2012.

25 Carbon emissions

26 Factors driving slower growth of carbon emissions Annual change, % 1,5% Contributions to slowdown in 2015 growth vs trend GDP US 1,0% Energy intensity China 0,5% Fuel mix 0,0% 10-year average 2015 Other Note: these charts show, for each factor or geographic entity, the difference between its contribution to the growth of emissions in 2015 and its average contribution to emissions growth over the past decade.

27 Factors driving slower growth of carbon emissions Annual change, % 1,5% 1,0% Contributions to slowdown in 2015 growth vs trend US GDP China 0,5% 0,0% 10-year average Other 2015 Note: these charts show, for each factor or geographic entity, the difference between its contribution to the growth of emissions in 2015 and its average contribution to emissions growth over the past decade.

28 Carbon intensity Annual change, % 2% Change in carbon intensity of GDP 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4%

29 Conclusion 2015 Another year of weak growth (structural and cyclical) Fuels: winners and losers (prices work) Carbon emissions stall Future Energy demand in transition Technological advances driving supply BP 2015

30 BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 bp.com/statisticalreview #BPstats BP p.i.c.2016