Persistent (PERSYS) Riding on digital transformation wave. Analyst Meet Note. ICICI Securities Ltd Retail Equity Research

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1 Analyst Meet Note Rating matrix Rating : Hold Target : 69 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 1% Key Financials Net Sales 1,891 2,312 2,899 3,3 EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( ) Valuation summary P/E Target P/E EV / EBITDA P/BV RoNW (%) RoCE (%) Stock data Particular Amount Market Capitalization () 4,695.2 Total Debt () - Cash and Investments () 63.6 EV () 4, week H/L 797 / 563 Equity capital 87.1 Face value 1. Price Chart 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Dec-13 Apr-14 Research Analyst Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Nifty (L.H.S) Aug-15 Deepak Purswani, CFA deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com Tushar Wavhal tushar.wavhal@icicisecurities.com Deepti Tayal deepti.tayal@icicisecurities.com Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Price (R.H.S) Dec-16 1, Persistent (PERSYS) Riding on digital transformation wave December 19, We attended the Persistent systems (PERSYS) investor meet where company showcased its digital service offerings through live HACKATHONS to demos presenting multiple use-cases around blockchain technology, VEGA platform which Persistent would be using for digital transformation of banks. Persistent attracted good talents in last 1 ½ year mainly to beef up its leadership team to ride the digital transformation wave. IBM alliance (~3% of revenues) could led the growth for Persistent that too mainly related to IBM Watson IoT deal which took-off in Jan 216 with quarterly run-rate of ~US$ million. Management highlighted that Enterprise (~28% of revenues) and IP (~3% of revenues) would continue to drive the growth going ahead. IBM-Watson IoT deal could grow significantly in coming years IBM-Watson IoT deal with Persistent systems in Jan 216 with quarterly run-rate of US$12-13 million could led the growth in IBM-Alliance space (~3% of revenue). Persistent took part in few conferences in last few quarters along with IBM, where the feed-back was positive for its IBM Watson IoT offerings. We believe Watson-IoT deal could be the next big trigger for Persistent systems to ride the IoT wave and could scale up significantly in coming years from current ~US$ 5 million annual revenue run-rate. What Persistent systems is doing to play and win? a) Persistent has recently re-organized its businesses to create the necessary focus on digital transformation. Aligned its organization into 4 key growth strategies namely (i) Digital (focus on HOW of digital) (ii) IBM Alliance (focus on IBM alliance ~3% of revenues) (iii) Services business( focus on services for ISVs and enterprises (iv) Accelerite (focus on software for enterprises as well its own IP-led businesses) b) Strengthened the leadership team c) Focus on being global (currently presence in only 1 countries) d) Focus on partnerships. Maintaining our Target price of 69 Persistent s improving business mix towards IP-led & enterprise and focus on key top accounts makes it a good play in the ongoing technology disruption in industry. We maintain our HOLD rating since Persistent needs to up its ante on sustainable revenue growth and favourable margin profile. We estimate Persistent could report rupee, earnings CAGR of 2.8%, 9.9% in FY16-FY18E. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary () Net Sales EBITDA Net Profit EPS ( )- Diluted P/E (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%) Page 1

2 Key Highlights Strengthened leadership team to capitalize the opportunity in digital wave transformation. It added 15 key leadership profile spanning across various domain expertise with rich experience. 46.7% of onsite employees are locals, could limit H1-B clampdown risk. Chasing deals upto ~US$ 1 million owing to smaller deal sizes in the initial phase of digital transformation. Recently stock was under consistent pressure owing to Mr S.P. Deshpande, one of the promoter of the company, persistently selling few shares in the open market to raise funds for his philanthropic activities. He has transferred 39,99,999 shares to Rama-Purshottam foundation to carry out philanthropic activities and has also transferred another 1,, shares to his relatives as gift consideration. 1% of revenues comes from new ISV (Independent software vendors) and Fintech companies Recently added few work-force in Sri-Lanka and Israel. Intends to increase penetration in newer geographies (currently working in 1 countries) Expects 5% of revenues from digital transformation could have IP element embedded in it leading to non-linear growth Demonstrated a bank payment app which can act as aggregator for many banks Demonstrated natural language processing through APIs for sentiment analysis Demonstrated VEGA platform which can be used for digital transformation of banks Working with CE/CLM platform of IBM for Watson and IoT offerings Demonstrated e-kyc with block-chain technology Demonstrated digital banking on social media platform through chatbot Page 2

3 Financial summary Profit and loss statement Cash flow statement RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns Total Revenues 1,891 2,312 2,899 3,3 ratings Growth (%) to its stocks according 13.3to their 22.3notional 25.4 target 13.8 price PBT vs. current market price and 39 then 396 categorises 418 them 53 as Employee Strong & Subcontracting Buy, Buy, costs Hold and 1,22 Sell. 1,541 The performance 1,98 2,238 horizon Depreciation is two & Amortization years unless specified and the 139notional 158 target Total Operating price Expenditure is defined as the 1,51 analysts' 1,899 valuation 2,432 for 2,752 a stock. WC changes (28) (84) (232) 197 EBITDA Other non cash adju. (45) (53) (9) (114) Strong Growth (%) Buy: >15%/2% for large (9.3) caps/midcaps, respectively, 17.4 with high conviction; Buy: Depreciation >1%/15% & Amortization for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Other Income Up to +/-1%; Sell: Interest -1% or more; PBT before Exceptional Items Growth (%) Tax PAT before Exceptional Items Exceptional items PAT before MI Minority Int & Pft. from associates PAT Growth (%) EPS EPS (Growth %) CF from operations Capital expenditure (95) (165) (12) (14) Δ in investments (167) Other investing cash flow CF from investing Activities (232) (116) (3) (26) Issue of equity Δ in debt funds 1 (1) - - Dividends paid (67) (125) (8) (8) Other financing cash flow () () () () CF from Financial Activities (66) (127) (8) (8) Δ in cash and cash bank balance Effect of exchange rate changes Opening cash Other deposits Cash c/f to balance sheet Balance sheet Key ratios Liabilities Equity Reserves & Surplus 1,326 1,559 1,788 2,76 Networth 1,46 1,639 1,868 2,156 Minority Interest Long term Liabilties & provisions Source of funds 1,42 1,654 1,883 2,171 Assets Net fixed assets Net intangible assets Goodwill Other non current assets Investments Debtors Cash & Cash equivalents ,11 Other current assets Trade payables (23) 185 Current liabilities Provisions Application of funds 1,42 1,654 1,883 2,171 (Year-end March) Per share data ( ) EPS Cash Per Share BV DPS Operating Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBT Margin PAT Margin Turnover Ratios Debtor days Creditor days Return Ratios (%) RoE RoCE RoIC Valuation Ratios (x) P/E EV / EBITDA Market Cap / Sales Solvency Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Page 3

4 RATING RATIONALE ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock. Strong Buy: >15%/2% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction; Buy: >1%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively; Hold: Up to +/-1%; Sell: -1% or more; Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC, Andheri (East) Mumbai 4 93 research@icicidirect.com

5 ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited is a Sebi registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH99. ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. ICICI Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. ( associates ), the details in respect of which are available on ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report. It is confirmed that Deepak Purswani, CFA MBA (Finance), Tushar Wavhal, MBA, Deepti Tayal, MBA, Research Analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Page 4

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