Weather Normalization of MISO Historical Data Procedure
|
|
|
- Lenard Jennings
- 7 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Weather Normalization of MISO Historical Data Procedure Goal The goal of this weather normalization work was to provide a preliminary methodology for weather normalization as MISO does not currently have an established method to weather normalize historical MISO and Local Resource Zone (LRZ) demand and energy metered data. This weather normalized historical data will help provide a better comparison of historical data to forecast data since the historical data is adjusted for the impacts of weather. This is currently helpful for the load forecast comparison work of understanding the differences between the Independent Load Forecast and the Aggregated Load Serving Entities (LSE) Forecast. Weather Data One weather station per LRZ was used. 1 For consistency, these are the same weather stations used by the Independent Load Forecast. Weather stations used are listed in the table below. The weather data was from the Midwest Regional Climate Center. Clean hourly load temperature data was available for The hourly values were averaged to provide a daily average temperature. The daily average temperatures were used in the weather normalization models. For MISO models, the weather data was weighted by load and then summed to provide a MISO weather data set. LRZ Weather Station City 1 MINPLIS-ST PAUL INTL ARPT Minneapolis-St.Paul, MN 2 GENERAL MITCHELL INTL ARPT Milwaukee, WI 3 DES MOINES INTL AIRPORT Des Moines, IA 4 ABRAHAM LINCOLN CAPITOL AIRPORT Springfield, Ill 5 LAMBERT-ST LOUIS INTL ARPT St. Louis, MO 6 INDIANAPOLIS INTL AIRPORT Indianapolis, IN 7 CAPITAL CITY AIRPORT Lansing, MI 8 ADAMS FIELD AIRPORT Little Rock, AR 9 LAKE CHARLES REGIONAL AIRPORT LA US Lake Charles, LA Demand Linear econometric models were created for each season (summer and winter) for each LRZ and MISO. The daily average temperature on the peak date and the daily average temperature of 3 days before the peak date were used as potential variables in the models. Peaks of all seasonal peak months (June, July and August in summer; December, January and February in winter) from were included in the models. 2 Model specifications are included below. 1 The scope of this weather normalization work is LRZs 1-9 since that was the scope of the Independent Load Forecast. LRZ 10 would be added for future load forecast comparison and weather normalization work. 2 Only the summer non-coincident peak data was used for LRZ 9 since there was no linear model fit for data that included all summer months.
2 Normal weather for seasonal peak demand was determined by averaging the temperature values for the non-coincident peak date from Energy Linear econometric models were created for each LRZ and MISO. Heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) were the independent variables in the models. HDD and CDD were calculated from the daily average temperatures with a base value of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Monthly data from was used. The National Activity Index was an additional independent variable in order to include an economic trends variable in the models. However, it was not included in the final models as it was not significant in any models. Normal weather was determined from the NOAA 30 year normal HDD and CDD values. Weather Normalization Once the models were created, both actual weather values and normal weather values were run through the models and the historical data was normalized with the following equation: Normalized value = Actual value (Actual weather model prediction Normal weather model prediction) Future Improvements This is a preliminary weather normalization methodology that should continue to be built upon as more quality data is available. The data set was very limited by the fact that quality historical load data only went back to The robustness of these models could be greatly improved by access to a longer timescale of historical data.
3 Current Models LRZ 1 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_1 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 08:17 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 3.89E+12 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
4 Summer Dependent Variable: LRZ_1 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:01 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
5 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_1 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:05 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C _1_BEFORE R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
6 LRZ 2 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_2 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:07 Sample: 2010M M12 Included observations: 60 C CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 1.74E+12 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
7 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:17 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
8 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_2 Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:19 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
9 LRZ 3 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_3 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:11 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 9.57E+11 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
10 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:22 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
11 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_3 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:22 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
12 LRZ 4 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_4 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:13 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 1.12E+12 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
13 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:26 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
14 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_4 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:27 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
15 LRZ 5 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_5 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:21 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C CDD HDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 5.27E+11 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
16 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:30 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
17 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_5 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:31 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
18 LRZ 6 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_6 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:23 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C HDD CDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 3.90E+12 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
19 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:33 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
20 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_6 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:34 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK _1_BEFORE R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
21 LRZ 7 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_7 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:27 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C HDD CDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 5.00E+12 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
22 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:37 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
23 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_7 Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:44 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
24 LRZ 8 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_8 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:33 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C HDD CDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 6.81E+11 Schwarz criterion Prob(F-statistic)
25 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:43 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
26 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_8 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:44 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
27 LRZ 9 Energy Dependent Variable: LRZ_9 Date: 07/30/15 Time: 11:38 Sample: 1 60 Included observations: 60 C HDD CDD R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 1.11E+13 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
28 Summer Dependent Variable: LRZ_9 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:47 Sample: 1 5 Included observations: 5 C _1_BEFORE _1_AFTER R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
29 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_9 Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:48 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK _1_BEFORE R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
30 MISO Energy Dependent Variable: MISO Date: 08/21/15 Time: 15:57 Sample: 2010M M12 Included observations: 60 C CDD_MISO HDD_MISO R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid 1.56E+14 Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
31 Summer Dependent Variable: LOAD Date: 08/21/15 Time: 16:00 Sample: 2010M M08 Included observations: 15 C S_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
32 Winter Dependent Variable: LOAD_M Date: 09/10/15 Time: 14:57 Sample: 2010M M02 Included observations: 12 C W_PEAK R-squared Mean dependent var Adjusted R-squared S.D. dependent var S.E. of regression Akaike info criterion Sum squared resid Schwarz criterion Log likelihood Hannan-Quinn criter F-statistic Durbin-Watson stat Prob(F-statistic)
Forecasting the US Dollar / Euro Exchange rate Using ARMA Models
Forecasting the US Dollar / Euro Exchange rate Using ARMA Models LIUWEI (9906360) - 1 - ABSTRACT...3 1. INTRODUCTION...4 2. DATA ANALYSIS...5 2.1 Stationary estimation...5 2.2 Dickey-Fuller Test...6 3.
IMPACT OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ON PROFITABILITY
IMPACT OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ON PROFITABILITY Hina Agha, Mba, Mphil Bahria University Karachi Campus, Pakistan Abstract The main purpose of this study is to empirically test the impact of working
Air passenger departures forecast models A technical note
Ministry of Transport Air passenger departures forecast models A technical note By Haobo Wang Financial, Economic and Statistical Analysis Page 1 of 15 1. Introduction Sine 1999, the Ministry of Business,
Methodology For Illinois Electric Customers and Sales Forecasts: 2016-2025
Methodology For Illinois Electric Customers and Sales Forecasts: 2016-2025 In December 2014, an electric rate case was finalized in MEC s Illinois service territory. As a result of the implementation of
UK GDP is the best predictor of UK GDP, literally.
UK GDP IS THE BEST PREDICTOR OF UK GDP, LITERALLY ERIK BRITTON AND DANNY GABAY 6 NOVEMBER 2009 UK GDP is the best predictor of UK GDP, literally. The ONS s preliminary estimate of UK GDP for the third
2. Linear regression with multiple regressors
2. Linear regression with multiple regressors Aim of this section: Introduction of the multiple regression model OLS estimation in multiple regression Measures-of-fit in multiple regression Assumptions
The relationship between stock market parameters and interbank lending market: an empirical evidence
Magomet Yandiev Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University mag2097@mail.ru Alexander Pakhalov, PG student, Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Price volatility in the silver spot market: An empirical study using Garch applications
Price volatility in the silver spot market: An empirical study using Garch applications ABSTRACT Alan Harper, South University Zhenhu Jin Valparaiso University Raufu Sokunle UBS Investment Bank Manish
Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Pakistan
Determinants of Stock Market Performance in Pakistan Mehwish Zafar Sr. Lecturer Bahria University, Karachi campus Abstract Stock market performance, economic and political condition of a country is interrelated
On the Degree of Openness of an Open Economy Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, Universidad del CEMA Buenos Aires, Argentina
On the Degree of Openness of an Open Economy Carlos Alfredo Rodriguez, Universidad del CEMA Buenos Aires, Argentina car@cema.edu.ar www.cema.edu.ar\~car Version1-February 14,2000 All data can be consulted
The Effect of Seasonality in the CPI on Indexed Bond Pricing and Inflation Expectations
The Effect of Seasonality in the CPI on Indexed Bond Pricing and Inflation Expectations Roy Stein* *Research Department, Roy Stein roy.stein@boi.org.il, tel: 02-6552559 This research was partially supported
The Impact of Privatization in Insurance Industry on Insurance Efficiency in Iran
The Impact of Privatization in Insurance Industry on Insurance Efficiency in Iran Shahram Gilaninia 1, Hosein Ganjinia, Azadeh Asadian 3 * 1. Department of Industrial Management, Islamic Azad University,
Correlation of International Stock Markets Before and During the Subprime Crisis
173 Correlation of International Stock Markets Before and During the Subprime Crisis Ioana Moldovan 1 Claudia Medrega 2 The recent financial crisis has spread to markets worldwide. The correlation of evolutions
European Journal of Business and Management ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online) Vol.5, No.30, 2013
The Impact of Stock Market Liquidity on Economic Growth in Jordan Shatha Abdul-Khaliq Assistant Professor,AlBlqa Applied University, Jordan * E-mail of the corresponding author: yshatha@gmail.com Abstract
The role of the banking sector in enhancing extractive industries in Sudan
UNCTAD 17th Africa OILGASMINE, Khartoum, 23-26 November 2015 Extractive Industries and Sustainable Job Creation The role of the banking sector in enhancing extractive industries in Sudan By Dr Mustafa
Source engine marketing: A preliminary empirical analysis of web search data
Source engine marketing: A preliminary empirical analysis of web search data ABSTRACT Bruce Q. Budd Alfaisal University The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate a website performance and
Competition as an Effective Tool in Developing Social Marketing Programs: Driving Behavior Change through Online Activities
Competition as an Effective Tool in Developing Social Marketing Programs: Driving Behavior Change through Online Activities Corina ŞERBAN 1 ABSTRACT Nowadays, social marketing practices represent an important
Measurement and Verification Report of OPower Energy Efficiency Pilot Program
Connexus Energy Ramsey, MN Measurement and Verification Report of OPower Energy Efficiency Pilot Program July 28, 2010 Contact: Chris Ivanov 1532 W. Broadway Madison, WI 53713 Direct: 608-268-3516 Fax:
STAFF WORKING PAPER. The Relationship between Sustainable Growth and the Riskfree Rate: Evidence from UK Government Gilts. Staff Working Paper 2012.
STAFF WORKING PAPER The Relationship between Sustainable Growth and the Riskfree Rate: Evidence from UK Government Gilts Staff Working Paper 2012.1 Andrew Lilico & Stefano Ficco January 2012 FOREWORD Europe
Stock Markets Correlation: before and during the Crisis Analysis *
Theoretical and Applied Economics Volume XVIII (2011), No. 8(561), pp. 111-122 Stock Markets Correlation: before and during the Crisis Analysis * Ioana MOLDOVAN Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies ioana.moldovan@economie.ase.ro
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny
Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny George Matysiak Introduction to modelling & forecasting December 15 th, 2014 Agenda Modelling and forecasting - Models Approaches towards modelling and forecasting Forecasting commercial
Parking slots in Europe: Results review and new model proposal. Phase 2: EPA s model improvement and design of a new survey
Parking slots in Europe: Results review and new model proposal Phase 2: EPA s model improvement and design of a new survey Research team: Jordi Suriñach (director) Manuela Alcañiz José Ramón García Montserrat
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT
THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & MANAGEMENT Human Capital Efficiency and Corporate Performance: The Nigerian Perspective Kwarbai Jerry Danjuma Ph.D. Student, Department of Accounting, Babcock University,
What drove Irish Government bond yields during the crisis?
What drove Irish Government bond yields during the crisis? David Purdue and Rossa White, September 2014 1. Introduction The Irish Government bond market has been exceptionally volatile in the seven years
The Global Financial Crisis and the Role of Ownership Structure on Cost of Capital
1 The Global Financial Crisis and the Role of Ownership Structure on Cost of Capital Salman Afkhami Rad* 1, Stuart Locke* and Krishna Reddy* * Department of Finance, Waikato Management School, the University
Climate and Weather. This document explains where we obtain weather and climate data and how we incorporate it into metrics:
OVERVIEW Climate and Weather The climate of the area where your property is located and the annual fluctuations you experience in weather conditions can affect how much energy you need to operate your
ENERGY STAR for Data Centers
ENERGY STAR for Data Centers Alexandra Sullivan US EPA, ENERGY STAR February 4, 2010 Agenda ENERGY STAR Buildings Overview Energy Performance Ratings Portfolio Manager Data Center Initiative Objective
Time Series Analysis
Time Series Analysis Forecasting with ARIMA models Andrés M. Alonso Carolina García-Martos Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Universidad Politécnica de Madrid June July, 2012 Alonso and García-Martos (UC3M-UPM)
Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol. 12-1 (2012)
MERCHANDISE EXPORT DEMAND FUNCTION FOR EGYPT: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS IBRAHIM, Mohamed Abbas 1 Abstract This study empirically estimates the critical parameters of merchandise export demand function for
Intertemporal Effects of Online Advertising Channels on Customers
International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 5, No. 9; August 2014 Intertemporal Effects of Online Advertising Channels on Customers Mohammad Almotairi Department of Marketing College of Business
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CHINA S EXTERNAL DEBT COMPONENTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES. Hüseyin Çetin
TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF CHINA S EXTERNAL DEBT COMPONENTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES Hüseyin Çetin Phd Business Administration Candidate Okan University Social Science Institute,
2016 ERCOT System Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast December 31, 2015
2016 ERCOT System Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast December 31, 2015 2015 Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy
Forecasting Using Eviews 2.0: An Overview
Forecasting Using Eviews 2.0: An Overview Some Preliminaries In what follows it will be useful to distinguish between ex post and ex ante forecasting. In terms of time series modeling, both predict values
Predicting The Outcome Of NASCAR Races: The Role Of Driver Experience Mary Allender, University of Portland
Predicting The Outcome Of NASCAR Races: The Role Of Driver Experience Mary Allender, University of Portland ABSTRACT As national interest in NASCAR grows, the field of sports economics is increasingly
Weather Normalization of Peak Load
Weather Normalization of Peak Load Load Analysis Subcommittee September 2, 2015 Issue PJM s current method of weather normalizing peak loads involves updating the peak load forecast model Revising the
Competition Strategies between Five Cell Phone Service Providers in Pakistan
Competition Strategies between Five Cell Phone Service Providers in Pakistan Dr. Rukhsar Ahmed 1 and Atif Hassan 2 1 Professor and Dean, Preston University Karachi, Pakistan 2 PhD Management Scholar, Ifugao
3.1 Stationary Processes and Mean Reversion
3. Univariate Time Series Models 3.1 Stationary Processes and Mean Reversion Definition 3.1: A time series y t, t = 1,..., T is called (covariance) stationary if (1) E[y t ] = µ, for all t Cov[y t, y t
The Relationship between Life Insurance and Economic Growth: Evidence from India
Global Journal of Management and Business Studies. ISSN 2248-9878 Volume 3, Number 4 (2013), pp. 413-422 Research India Publications http://www.ripublication.com/gjmbs.htm The Relationship between Life
I n t roduction to Weather Derivatives
I n t roduction to Weather Derivatives by Geoffrey Considine, Ph.D., Weather Derivatives Group, Aquila Energy Introduction The first transaction in the weather derivatives market took place in 1997 1.
I. FORECAST METHODOLOGY
I. FORECAST METHODOLOGY This Appendix provides a discussion of the methodology used in Resource Planning to forecast customer need, first at a summary level, and in Section II, we provide additional technical
Project Finance: Determinants of the Bank Loan Spread
International Journal of Business and Social Science Vol. 5, No. 5; April 2014 Project Finance: Determinants of the Bank Loan Spread Neila BOUZGUENDA PhD in Finance Ecole Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) La
Exploring Changes in the Labor Market of Health Care Service Workers in Texas and the Rio Grande Valley I. Introduction
Ina Ganguli ENG-SCI 103 Final Project May 16, 2007 Exploring Changes in the Labor Market of Health Care Service Workers in Texas and the Rio Grande Valley I. Introduction The shortage of healthcare workers
MARKETING COMMUNICATION IN ONLINE SOCIAL PROGRAMS: OHANIAN MODEL OF SOURCE CREDIBILITY
MARKETING COMMUNICATION IN ONLINE SOCIAL PROGRAMS: OHANIAN MODEL OF SOURCE CREDIBILITY Serban Corina The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies The Faculty of Marketing The development of the Internet as
PARTNERSHIP IN SOCIAL MARKETING PROGRAMS. SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE COMPANIES AND NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS ENGAGEMENT IN SOLVING SOCIETY S PROBLEMS
PARTNERSHIP IN SOCIAL MARKETING PROGRAMS. SOCIALLY RESPONSIBLE COMPANIES AND NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS ENGAGEMENT IN SOLVING SOCIETY S PROBLEMS Corina Şerban The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romania
Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models
Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models Prepared for 25 th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 18-21, 25 Frederick L. Joutz, Department of Economics The George
Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models
Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models Prepared for Brown Bag Seminar on Forecasting of the Federal Forecasters Consortium (FFC), in alliance with Research Program on Forecasting at The George
Returns on Investment of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria
Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, vol. 3, no. 3, 2013, 195-206 ISSN: 1792-6580 (print version), 1792-6599 (online) Scienpress Ltd, 2013 Returns on Investment of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) in Nigeria
ENERGY STAR Data Center Infrastructure Rating Development Update. Web Conference November 12, 2009
ENERGY STAR Data Center Infrastructure Rating Development Update Web Conference November 12, 2009 Web Conference Tips Background Noise Please mute your phone until you are ready to speak. Hold & Music
State Electricity Price Forecasting Model Summary
State Electricity Price Forecasting Model Summary Contents SUFG State Electricity Price Forecasting Models... 2 United States Census Regional Division Map... 3 Forecasting Results Comparison (Annual Compound
Turkey s Energy Demand
Current Research Journal of Social Sciences 1(3): 123-128, 2009 ISSN: 2041-3246 Maxwell Scientific Organization, 2009 Submitted Date: September 28, 2009 Accepted Date: October 12, 2009 Published Date:
ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF TIME USE AND SCORES IN ONLINE MBA STATISTICS CLASS: A GENDER ANALYSIS
Page 59 ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF TIME USE AND SCORES IN ONLINE MBA STATISTICS CLASS: A GENDER ANALYSIS Kishor K. Guru-Gharana, Texas A & M University-Commerce Jennifer Flanagan, Texas A & M University-Commerce
The Time Series Performance Of UK Real Estate Indices
The Time Series Performance Of UK Real Estate Indices A report funded by the Real Estate Research Institute as part of an enquiry into property performance measures in the United States for the US Pensions
The Pecking Order Theory and the Static Trade Off Theory: Comparison of the Alternative Explanatory Power in French Firms
Journal of Business Studies Quarterly 2012, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 1-14 ISSN 2152-1034 The Pecking Order Theory and the Static Trade Off Theory: Comparison of the Alternative Explanatory Power in French Firms
The Slowdown in German Bank Lending - Revisited
No. 53 The Slowdown in German Bank Lending - Revisited Thorsten Polleit May 2004 ISBN 1436-9761 Author: Honorary Professor Dr. Thorsten Polleit University of Applied Sciences Business School of Finance
CHAPTER 2 LOAD FORECAST
CHAPTER 2 LOAD 2.1 METHODS The Company uses two econometric models with an end-use orientation to forecast energy sales. The first is a customer class level model ( sales model ) and the second is an hourly
Ohio Edison, Cleveland Electric Illuminating, Toledo Edison Load Profile Application
Ohio Edison, Cleveland Electric Illuminating, Toledo Edison Load Profile Application I. General The Company presents the raw equations utilized in process of determining customer hourly loads. These equations
State Insurance Information
State Insurance Information Alabama 201 Monroe St. Suite 1700 Montgomery, AL 36104 334-269-3550 fax:334-241-4192 http://www.aldoi.org/ Alaska Dept. of Commerce, Division of Insurance. P.O. Box 110805 Juneau,
Effect of Working Capital Management on Corporate Performance: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Nigeria
IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM) e-issn: 2278-487X, p-issn: 2319-7668. Volume 17, Issue 2.Ver. III (Feb. 2015), PP 93-103 www.iosrjournals.org Effect of Working Capital Management on
Weather Effects on Electricity Loads: Modeling and Forecasting 12 December 2005
Weather Effects on Electricity Loads: Modeling and Forecasting 12 December 2005 Christian Crowley and Frederick L. Joutz Research Program on Forecasting Department of Economics The George Washington University
Corruption And International Trade
Southern Illinois University Carbondale OpenSIUC Research Papers Graduate School Summer 7-8-2011 Corruption And International Trade srikanth uppalaunchi usa6@siu.edu Follow this and additional works at:
Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Australian Capital Territory 2009-2013. Environment and Planning Directorate
Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Australian Capital Territory 2009-2013 Environment and Planning Directorate January 2015 Contents Executive Summary... 3 Introduction... 4 Energy costs
Determinants of capital structuring: an empirical study of growth and financing behavior of firms of textile sector in Pakistan
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Determinants of capital structuring: an empirical study of growth and financing behavior of firms of textile sector in Pakistan Imran Umer Chhapra and Muhammad Asim KASB
Optimizing Water Supply Operations: Beat the Heat Through Short-Term Demand Forecasting
Optimizing Water Supply Operations: Beat the Heat Through Short-Term Demand Forecasting Nicholas Augustus, P.E.(OR), ENV SP Project Engineer Tualatin Valley Water District Presentation Overview Background
VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov
VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov AGENDA» Review customer and system usage trends in Vermont» Review and discuss the forecast
Monitoring web traffic source effectiveness with Google Analytics An experiment with time series
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at wwwemeraldinsightcom/0001-253xhtm AP 474 Received 9 July 2008 Revised 21 January 2009 Accepted 6 February 2009 Monitoring web traffic
Effects of bank mergers and acquisitions on small business lending in Nigeria
African Journal of Business Management Vol.2 (9), pp. 146-156, September 2008 Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/ajbm ISSN 1993-8233 2008 Academic Journals Full Length Research Paper Effects
Measuring Risk for Venture Capital and Private Equity Portfolios
Measuring Risk for Venture Capital and Private Equity Portfolios Susan E. Woodward Sand Hill Econometrics August, 2009 For alternative assets such as venture capital, buyouts (private equity), real estate,
Determinants of New York City Residential Rental Prices
61 Determinants of New York City Residential Rental Prices Larissa Marco 1 Washington University in St. Louis Abstract Economists and financial analysts have invested a tremendous amount of energy in an
Develop Long-Term Peak Demand Forecasts. Eric Fox 2010 AEIC Load Research Conference Sandestin, Florida
Using Electric / Gas Load / Water Research Data to Develop Long-Term Peak Demand Forecasts Eric Fox 2010 AEIC Load Research Conference Sandestin, Florida August 15-18, 2010 Overview Every three years,
State-by-State Listing of Departments of Insurance Updated August 2005
BUREAUS State-by-State Listing of Departments of Insurance Updated August 2005 Alabama Dept. of Insurance P.O. Box 303351 201 Monroe St. #1700 Montgomery AL 36104 (334) 269-3550 http://www.aldoi.org E-mail:
THE IMPACT OF DISTANCE IN RELIGION BETWEEN COUNTRIES ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) DIRECTED TO TURKEY AND POLAND
THE IMPACT OF DISTANCE IN RELIGION BETWEEN COUNTRIES ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION (EU) DIRECTED TO TURKEY AND POLAND T. Mesut Eren Istanbul Kultur University Assist. Prof.
Econometric Principles and Data Analysis
Econometric Principles and Data Analysis product: 4339 course code: c230 c330 Econometric Principles and Data Analysis Centre for Financial and Management Studies SOAS, University of London 1999, revised
Sacred Heart University John F. Welch College of Business
Sacred Heart University John F. Welch College of Business CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC OUTLOOK for 2013-2015: A Perspective from Sacred Heart University Students in Business Economics Final Research Project for
3 i Window Films. 3 Proof of Technology Experiment Cover Letter
3 i Window Films 3 Proof of Technology Experiment Cover Letter This Proof of Technology experiment was conducted at a large office facility with 10 stories. The experiment was conducted in adjacent offices
Agricultural Applications Of Weather Derivatives Travis L. Jones, (E-mail: tljones@fgcu.edu), Florida Gulf Coast University
Agricultural Applications Of Weather Derivatives Travis L. Jones, (E-mail: tljones@fgcu.edu), Florida Gulf Coast University ABSTRACT Weather derivatives are currently a fast growing derivatives sector.
PRICING OF FOREIGN CURRENCY OPTIONS IN THE SERBIAN MARKET
ECONOMIC ANNALS, Volume LIV, No. 180, January March 2009 UDC: 3.33 ISSN: 0013-3264 COMMUNICATIONS Irena Janković* DOI:10.2298/EKA0980091J PRICING OF FOREIGN CURRENCY OPTIONS IN THE SERBIAN MARKET ABSTRACT:
Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System, Inc.
Midwest Renewable Energy Tracking System, Inc. The Role of Tracking Systems in the Clean Power Plan January 14, 2016 Iowa 111(d) Stakeholder Meeting Ben Gerber Executive Director Dan King Program and Policy
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Yıl:8 Sayı:15 Bahar 2009 s.49-56 TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Mehmet ADAK * ABSTRACT The causality between TFP (Total Factor Productivity)
ANALYSIS OF THE ROMANIAN BANKS PERFORMANCE THROUGH ROA, ROE AND NON-PERFORMING LOANS MODELS
ANALYSIS OF THE ROMANIAN BANKS PERFORMANCE THROUGH ROA, ROE AND NON-PERFORMING LOANS MODELS Adela Socol 1 Adina Elena Dănuleţiu 2 ABSTRACT: General assumption of this study is that the banks performance
Alabama Commission of Higher Education P. O. Box 302000 Montgomery, AL. Alabama
Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Alabama Commission of Higher Education P. O. Box 302000 Montgomery, AL 36130-2000 (334) 242-1998 Fax: (334) 242-0268 Alaska Commission
Has Debt Relief Been Beneficial To The
School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology Has Debt Relief Been Beneficial To The Economic Growth of Africa? Bachelor thesis in Economics (15 Credits) JUNE 2009 Authors: Victor E. Taku-Mbi
THE DEREGULATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AND ITS IMPACT ON THE GROWTH OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY
THE DEREGULATION OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AND ITS IMPACT ON THE GROWTH OF THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY Okosodo, L. A., Ph.D Department Of Economics Ambrose Alli University Ekpoma Edo State Nigeria. Imosili S.
2015/2016 Planning Resource Auction Results. April 14, 2015
2015/2016 Planning Resource Auction Results April 14, 2015 Executive Summary MISO successfully completed its third annual Planning Resource Auction The MISO region has adequate resources to meet its Planning
ARKANSAS PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSYF cc7 DOCKET NO. 00-1 90-U IN THE MATTER OF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITION IF ANY, ON RETAIL CUSTOMERS
ARKANSAS PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSYF cc7 L I :b; -Ir '3, :I: 36 DOCKET NO. 00-1 90-U 1.. T -3. - " ~..-.ij IN THE MATTER OF A PROGRESS REPORT TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPETITION IN ELECTRIC
Mario Guarracino. Regression
Regression Introduction In the last lesson, we saw how to aggregate data from different sources, identify measures and dimensions, to build data marts for business analysis. Some techniques were introduced
Water Demand Forecast Approach
CHAPTER 6 2009 REGIONAL WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK Water Demand Forecast Approach 6.1 Introduction Long-range water demand forecasting is a fundamental tool that water utilities use to assure that they can meet
Finance Options for Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Nigeria: an Empirical Analysis
International Journal of Empirical Finance Vol. 2, No. 3, 2014, 123-129 Finance Options for Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Nigeria: an Empirical Analysis Oluitan Roseline 1, Kehinde James 2 Abstract
Weather Derivatives. D. Jeremy Bagshaw dbw05001 Andrew Cooke ace05001
Weather Derivatives D. Jeremy Bagshaw dbw05001 Andrew Cooke ace05001 Introduction According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), it is estimated that 20% of companies in the US are directly affected
Loan Repayment and Credit Management of Small Businesses A CASE STUDY OF A SOUTH AFRICAN COMMERCIAL BANK
Loan Repayment and Credit Management of Small Businesses A CASE STUDY OF A SOUTH AFRICAN COMMERCIAL BANK Clemence Hwarire 7 August 2012 Contents Introduction Obstacles hindering the growth of small businesses
A Value-Added Approach in Degree Day Calculation
A Value-Added Approach in Degree Day Calculation JOHN M. GOFF National Weather Service, Burlington VT Introduction The National Weather Service (NWS) uses the mean of the daily maximum and minimum 24-
Chapter 2 Regression Analysis and Forecasting Models
Chapter 2 Regression Analysis and Forecasting Models A forecast is merely a prediction about the future values of data. However, most extrapolative model forecasts assume that the past is a proxy for the
European Journal of Globalization and Development Research
ISSN 2220-7414 European Journal of Globalization and Development Research Joint Effects of Capital and Recurrent Expenditures in Nigeria s Economic Growth ONI Lawrence Babatunde ANINKAN Olubukola Omonike
EFFECT OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ON FIRM PROFITABILITY IN SELECTED NIGERIAN QUOTED COMPANIES
International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management United Kingdom Vol. III, Issue 10, October 2015 http://ijecm.co.uk/ ISSN 2348 0386 EFFECT OF WORKING CAPITAL MANAGEMENT ON FIRM PROFITABILITY
ANALYSIS OF THE LIFE INSURANCE MARKET IN THE REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
ECONOMIC ANNALS, Volume LVII, No. 194 / July September 2012 UDC: 3.33 ISSN: 0013-3264 DOI:10.2298/EKA1294107A Cvetko Andreeski* Bratislav Milošević** Vladimir Njegomir*** ANALYSIS OF THE LIFE INSURANCE
U.S. commercial electricity consumption
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive U.S. commercial electricity consumption Sergio Contreras and Wm. Doyle Smith and Thomas M., Jr. Fullerton University of Texas at El Paso 11. January 2010 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34855/
Climate change and heating/cooling degree days in Freiburg
339 Climate change and heating/cooling degree days in Freiburg Finn Thomsen, Andreas Matzatrakis Meteorological Institute, Albert-Ludwigs-University of Freiburg, Germany Abstract The discussion of climate
Understanding Retention among Private Baccalaureate Liberal Arts Colleges
Understanding Retention among Private Baccalaureate Liberal Arts Colleges Thursday April 19, 2012 Author: Katherine S. Hanson 1 Abstract This paper attempts to analyze the explanatory variables that best
The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia
The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia Shu Fan and Rob Hyndman Business and Economic Forecasting Unit, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3168, Australia Email: Shu.fan@buseco.monash.edu.au;
Austrian GDP Flash Estimates: A Description of Methods
Marcus Scheiblecker, Sandra Steindl Austrian GDP Flash Estimates: A Description of Methods The publication of short-term economic indicators has risen in importance in recent years. Quite in line with
Optimum Solar Orientation: Miami, Florida
Optimum Solar Orientation: Miami, Florida The orientation of architecture in relation to the sun is likely the most significant connection that we can make to place in regards to energy efficiency. In