Chapter 5. Interest Rate Term Structure and Arbitrage-Free Valuation
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1 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Chaper 5. Ineres Rae Term Srucure and Arbirage-Free Valuaion Yield curve Spo raes Forward raes Term Srucure Theories Secion I. The yield curve (La courbe des aux de rendemen A. Definiion Graphical depicion of he relaionship beween he mauriy and he yield o mauriy on securiies of he same credi risk: Curve ( ; y( Treasury yield curve Example US Treasury yield curve February 8, 00 Mauriy Yield monh.68% monhs.7% 6 monhs.8% year.09% years.9% 5 years 4.8% 0 years 4.88% 0 years 5.8% Example con d US Treasury yield curve February 8, % 5.00% 4.88% 5.8% Yield o mauriy 4.00%.00%.00%.68%.7%.8%.09%.9% 4.8%.00% 0.00% monh monhs 6 monhs year years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy
2 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example US Treasury yield curve December 000 and December % 5.50% 5.5% 5.48% 5.00% 5.% 4.99% 5.% 5.04% Yield o mauriy 4.50% 4.00%.50% 4.4%.00%.05% End of 000 End of 00.50% years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy 4 Example con d German bund yield curve December 000 and December % 5.50% 5.4% 5.9% Yield o mauriy 5.00% 4.50% 4.46% 4.5% 4.4% 4.99% 4.85% 4.00% End of 000 End of 00.66%.50% years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy 5 Example con d Japanese governmen bond yield curve December 000 and December 00.50%.%.00%.0% Yield o mauriy.50%.00% 0.97%.65%.7% 0.50% 0.48% 0.54% End of 000 End of % 0.% years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy 6
3 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example con d UK gil yield curve December 000 and December % 5.50% End of 000 End of 00 Yield o mauriy 5.00% 5.6% 4.76% 5.6% 5.% 5.05% 4.88% 4.70% 4.50% 4.% 4.00% years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy 7 Example con d French OAT yield curve December 000 and December % 5.50% 5.44% Yield o mauriy 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 4.5% 4.59% 4.5% 5.06% 5.00%.7%.50% End of 000 End of 00.00% years 5 years 0 years 0 years Mauriy 8
4 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences B. Common shapes of he yield curve (Formes usuelles des courbes de aux de rendemen Yield Normal Yield Invered / (Inversée Mauriy Mauriy Yield Humped / (Bombée Yield Fla / (Plae Mauriy Mauriy 0 C. Missing mauriies and inerpolaion y = yield for mauriy y = yield for mauriy y = yield for mauriy < < No Treasury issue available for mauriy Linear inerpolaion o approximae y = ŷ y + y Example Mauriy Yield 6 monhs.8% year no issue years.9% years no issue 4 years no issue 5 years 4.8% 4
5 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example con d Linear inerpolaion For he -year mauriy 0.5 ŷ ˆ( year =.8% +.9% =.8%.5.5 For he -year mauriy ŷ ( year =.9% + 4.8% =.% For he 4-year mauriy ŷ ( 4 year =.9% + 4.8% =.76% Example con d Inerpolaed yield curve Yield 4.50% 4.00%.50%.00%.50%.00%.50%.00% 4.8% 76%.76%.%.9%.8%.8% 6 monhs year years years 4 years 5 years Mauriy 4 D. Yield spreads (Ecars de aux de rendemen Yield spread = Yield (bond X Yield (benchmark bond Yield spread = Yield ( -mauriy bond Yield ( -mauriy Treasury issue Compensaion for Credi risk Illiquidiy Opion risk 5 5
6 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences D. Yield spreads con d Absolue yield spread / Nominal spread = Yield(bond X Yield (benchmark bond Relaive yield spread = ( Yield(bond X Yield (benchmark bond / Yield (benchmark bond Yield raio = Yield(bond X / Yield (benchmark bond 6 Example 4 Mauriy Issuer Raing Yield Absolue Relaive Yield yield yield raio spread spread 5 years US Treasury Aaa/AAA 4.8% years General Elecric Aaa/AAA 4.9% 75 bp 7.94%.79 5 years Verizon Communicaions A/A+ 5.% 9 bp.5%. 7 Secion II. The spo rae curve (La courbe des aux zéro-coupon A. A bond is a package of zero-coupon bonds bond pays a series of annual cash flows ( CF T = Equivalen o a package of T zero-coupon bonds -year zero-coupon bond CF -year zero-coupon bond CF -year zero-coupon bond CF T-year zero-coupon bond CF T 8 6
7 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences No-arbirage heory CF = V marke value of a bond paying ( T Z marke value of a zero-coupon bond paying CF in year Z marke value of a zero-coupon bond paying CF in years Z marke value of a zero-coupon bond paying CF in years Z T marke value of a zero-coupon bond paying CF T in T years 9 No-arbirage heory con d Arbirage-free values T V = Z + Z Z Z Suppose V ( Z Z... Z... Z T = Ω > 0 Suppose Arbirage sraegy Sell he coupon bond Buy he zero-coupon bonds 0,000 imes Risk-free profi = 0,000 Ω 0 The spo rae curve Marke value of a zero-coupon bond z = spo rae Z CF = z Spo rae curve = graphical depicion of he relaionship beween he mauriy and he Treasury spo rae for ha mauriy: Curve ( ; z 7
8 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences B. Boosrapping (Méhode iéraive Marke value of N-year coupon securiy = N N N V = + N CF ( y Marke values of uni zero-coupon securiies T Z =,..., Z =,..., Z = z z zt T Arbirage-free values N N N V = CF Z = N N N N CF CF = = yn = z B. Boosrapping con d Deriving spo raes from yields CF CF = y z CF CF + CF = CF + y ( + ( + y z z... N CF CF = y z =... T CF CF = y z = N N T T N = T = N T Example 5 4 on-he-run Treasury issues Annual-pay bonds Nex coupon dae: year from now Bulle mauriy Mauriy Coupon rae Marke price year.50% 00 years 4.0% 00 years 4.70% 00 4 years 5.0%
9 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example 5 con d Yield curve Mauriy Yield year.50% years 4.0% years 4.70% 4 years 5.0% 5 Example 5 Boosrapping Deermining he -year spo rae = z = y =.50% y z Deermining he -year spo rae = + y ( y ( z + + z = z z z = 04.0 = 4.48% z 6 Example 5 Boosrapping Deermining he -year spo rae = + + y ( y ( y ( z z z = z z z z = = 4.75% ( z + z 7 9
10 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example 5 Boosrapping Deermining he 4-year spo rae y 4 4 y4 y4 y = z 4 z z z = z 4 z z z z4 = = 5.706% ( z + z z 8 Example 5 con d Mauriy Yield Spo rae year.50%.5000% years 4.0% 4.48% years 4.70% 4.75% 4 years 5.0% 5.706% 9 Pracice quesion Trading dae: April 0, 006 Selemen dae: April 5, 006 Four bonds raded ex-coupon OAT 5.5% 5% 007 OAT 5.5% 008 OAT 4% 009 OAT 5.5% 00 Each OAT pays annual coupons every 5h of April. Bulle redempion a par Nex coupon: year from now 0 0
11 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Pracice quesion con d Prices in he marke Securiy Mauriy dae Coupon rae Price OAT 5.5% 007 5/04/ % 0.75 OAT 5.5% 008 5/04/ % 0.8 OAT 4% 009 5/04/ % OAT 5.5% 00 5/04/ % 04.5 Deermine he yield curve. Deermine he spo rae curve. Pracice quesion con d Pracice quesion con d
12 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Pracice quesion con d 4 Pracice quesion con d 5 Pracice quesion Trading dae: November 0, 006 Selemen dae: December 5, 006 Four bonds raded cum-coupon OAT 5.5% 5% 007 OAT 5.5% 008 OAT 4% 009 OAT 5.5% 00 Each OAT pays annual coupons every 5h of April. Bulle redempion a par 6
13 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Pracice quesion con d Prices Securiy Mauriy dae Coupon rae Clean price OAT 5.5% 007 5/04/ % OAT 5.5% 008 5/04/ % 0.0 OAT 4% 009 5/04/ % OAT 5.5% 00 5/04/ % Deermine he spo rae curve from o years. 7 Pracice quesion con d 8 Pracice quesion con d 9
14 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Pracice quesion con d 40 Pracice quesion con d 4 Pracice quesion con d 4 4
15 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Pracice quesion con d 4 Pracice quesion con d 44 Pracice quesion con d 45 5
16 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences C. Spread measures relaive o a spo rae curve (Marges par rappor aux aux zéro-coupon N-year corporae bond V marke value, y yield Nominal spread (relaive o he yield curve s such ha N CF V = = N Treasury y = yn + s Treasury y + s 46 C. Spread measures relaive o a spo rae curve con d Zero-volailiy spread / Z-spread / Saic spread s such ha CF CF CF V = N ( + z + s' z + s' zn + s' N Opion-adjused spread (OAS s such ha CF ( z CF ( z V = z + s'' z + s'' CFN ( zn z + s'' N N 47 C. Spread measures relaive o a spo rae curve con d Spread measure Benchmark Compensaion for Nominal spread Yield curve Credi risk, illiquidiy, opion risk Z-spread Spo rae curve Credi risk, illiquidiy, opion risk OAS Spo rae curve Credi risk, illiquidiy Nominal spread Z-spread OAS = Z-spread ± opion cos Z-spread > OAS if opion graned o issuer Z-spread < OAS if opion graned o bondholder 48 6
17 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences D. Valuing using spo raes (Evaluaion par les aux zéro-coupon ( ; z, =,,T spo rae curve New Treasury issue X Annual coupon = c, firs coupon in one year N-year mauriy, bulle mauriy Similar liquidiy as oher Treasury issues Marke value V X? Corporae bond A: marke Annual coupon = c A, firs coupon in one year N A -year mauriy, bulle mauriy Z-spread s A Marke value V A? 49 D. Valuing using spo raes con d Arbirage-free value of he new Treasury issue X V c c c c + 00 = z ( + z ( + z ( + z N N Arbirage-free value of bond A A V = A c A c A c A c A z + s A A N ( ( A ( A + z + s + z + s + z A N + s 50 Example 6 Spo rae curve of Example 5 Corporaion Xra issue bonds Coupon rae = 6% 4-year mauriy, bulle mauriy Opion-free s coupon in one year Z-spread compensaing for credi risk and liquidiy risk = 0 bp Price Xra s bond using he arbirage-free approach. 5 7
18 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example 6 con d Spo rae curve z =.5%, z = 4.48%, z = 4.75%, z4 = 5.706% Arbirage-free value Xra V 6 6 = + +.5% +.% 4.48% +.% % +.% 5.706% +.% = Secion III. Forward raes (Les aux à erme A. Definiion Forward rae = spo rae prevailing a a fuure dae for a given mauriy sf s-year forward rae years from now spo rae deermined oday, prevailing in years for an s-year mauriy f -year forward rae year from now f -year forward rae years from now f -year forward rae years from now 5 B. Deriving forward raes z, z : spo raes f: -year forward rae year from now Alernaive Buy a -year zero coupon bond Buy a -year zero coupon bond, hen buy anoher one in year from now Amoun invesed a dae 0: X Indifferen oward he sraegies if same amoun in years 54 8
19 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Accrued amoun in years Invesing in he -year bond X ( + z ² Invesing wice in he -year bond X ( + z ( + f Indifferen if ( + z ( + f = ( + z ² f = [ ( + z ² / ( + z ] 55 -year implied forward raes General formula zm+ ( + z m+ fm = m m -year forward-rae curve ( m ; T f m m= T = longes mauriy of he spo rae curve 56 Example 7 Treasury spo rae curve of Example 5 -year forward-rae curve? Mauriy Yield Spo rae Forward rae year.50%.5000% --- years 4.0% 4.48%? years 4.70% 4.75%? 4 years 5.0% 5.706%? 57 9
20 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Example 7 con d -year implied forward rae in year z ( 4.48% f + = = = 4.945% z.5000% -year implied forward rae in years z ( 4.75% f + = = = 5.788% z 4.48% -year implied forward rae in years 4 4 z ( 5.706% f 4 + = = = 6.89% z 4.75% 58 Example 7 con d Shor-erm forward-rae curve Mauriy Yield Spo rae Forward rae year.50%.5000% --- years 4.0% 4.48% 4.945% years 4.70% 4.75% 5.788% 4 years 5.0% 5.706% 6.89% 59 C. Relaionship beween shor-erm forward raes and spo raes Implied forward-rae verify ( + z f = z ( ( ( + z + f = + z M z f = z z f = z M T z f = z T T T + + T 60 0
21 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences C. Relaionship beween shor-erm forward raes and spo raes con d z f = z z f f = z M z f f... f = z z f f... f f = z M z f f... f = z T T T C. Relaionship beween shor-erm forward raes and spo raes con d ( z f f... f = ( z z = z f f... f z = m= z f m 6 Example 7 Compuing z from forward raes = z f =.5% 4.945% 4.48% z = Compuing z from forward raes z = z f f =.5% 4.945% 5.788% = 4.75% Compuing z 4 from forward raes z 4 4 = z f f f = 4.5% 4.945% 5.788% 6.89% = 5.706% 6
22 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences D. Valuing using forward raes (Evaluaion par les aux à erme Arbirage-free valuaion wih spo raes = N CF V = z Relaionship beween spo raes and forward raes z ( ( ( ( 44 = + z f f f spo discoun facor forward discoun facor Arbirage-free valuaion wih forward raes V = N CF = z f m= m 64 Example 8 Forward rae curve of Example 5 Value a Treasury issue Coupon = 4 Firs coupon in one year -year mauriy 4 4 V = + +.5%.5% 4.945% % 4.945% 5.788% = E. Compuing any forward rae s f s-year forward rae in years from now mauring in +s years s+ ( + z = z f s s+ sf = s s zs+ z s + 66
23 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Secion IV. The deerminans of he ineres rae erm srucure A. Shor rae deerminaion Moneary policy implemened by he CB European Cenral Bank in he EMU Federal Reserve bank (Fed in he U.S. Tools Rae a which banks borrow funds o he CB Open marke operaions Bank reserve requiremens 67 B. Relaing shor-erm and longerm raes Theories explaining he erm srucure of ineres raes Expecaions Pure expecaions Theory (Luz, 940; Meiselman, 96 Liquidiy preference heory (Hicks, 946 Marke segmenaion Segmenaion Theory (Culberson, 957 Preferred habia heory (Modigliani & Such, The pure expecaions heory (La héorie des anicipaions non biaisées Pure or unbiased expecaions heory = for a given mauriy, he spo rae resuls from he expeced shor-erm ineres raes unil he considered mauriy dae -year rae such ha reurn (-year bond = reurn (-year bond & expeced reurn (-year bond purchased year from oday -year rae such ha reurn (-year bond = reurn (--year bond & expeced reurn (-year bond purchased - years from oday or reurn (-year bond = reurn (-year bond & expeced reurns (-year bond each year from year o - 69
24 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences. The pure expecaions heory con d Relaionship beween he spo discoun facor and he forward discoun facor z = z f... fm... f According o his heory, shor-erm forward raes are unbiased marke expecaions of fuure shor-erm spo raes fm = E0( z~ ( m where z~ ( m year spo rae prevailing in m years 70 Implicaions The erm srucure conains informaion. Pure expecaions Shape of he erm srucure Implicaion of he heory upward sloping raes expeced o rise downward sloping raes expeced o decline fla raes no expeced o change humped raes expeced o rise firs, hen fall 7. The liquidiy preference heory (La héorie de la préférence pour la liquidié According o his heory, implied forward raes are deermined by marke expecaions abou fuure shor-erm spo raes rae premium for greaer ineres rae risk / longer fund non-availabiliy f m = E0( z~ ( m + Lm Term srucure resuling from z = z E0( z( + L... E0( z( m + Lm... E0( z( + L wih L L... Lm... L 7 4
25 Universié Paris-Dauphine M Gesion menion Finance Fixed Income Markes Marchés de aux d'inérê S. Aboura (Maîre de conférences Implicaions Upward sloping erm srucure = mos frequenly observed ype The informaion conained in he erm srucure is biased by liquidiy premia. Liquidiy preference Shape of he erm srucure upward sloping downward sloping fla humped Implicaion of he heory raes expeced o rise, or fall, or remain unchanged raes expeced o decline raes expeced o decline raes expeced o fall in he long run bu unclear in he shor run 7. Marke segmenaion heory (La héorie de la segmenaion Each mauriy = independen marke secor Supply / demand ineres rae for each mauriy Any shape of he erm srucure possible Preferred habia heory (La héorie de l habia préféré Invesors prefer paricular mauriy secors Shif ou if given an inducemen = rae premium f m = E 0 ( z~ ( m + H m Term srucure resuling from z = z E0( z( + H... E0( z( m + Hm... E0( z( + H Any curve shape possible Informaion conained in he erm srucure biased 75 5
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