Economic Growth and Sustainable Development
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1 Economic Growth and Sustainable Development Routledge Taylor & Francis Group LONDON AND NEW YORK
2 L? Contents List of illustrations xii Preface xvi Acknowledgments xxii PARTI INTRODUCTION 1 1 INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMIC GROWTH 3 BRIEF HISTORY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 4 MEASURING ECONOMIC GROWTH 6 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY 6 PRIMARY SOURCES OF OUTPUT GROWTH 13 OUTPUT GROWTH ACCOUNTING 15 LABOR PRODUCTIVITIES AND PER CAPITA INCOMES 23 NEGATIVE OUPUT GROWTH 29 CONCLUSION INTRODUCTION TO POPULATION GROWTH 35 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE 35 MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH RATES 36 BRIEF OVERVIEW OF WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 38 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY 43 LOW POPULATION GROWTH 51 POPULATION CHANGE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 52 CONCLUSION 53 PART II THEORIES OF GROWTH 55 3 CLASSICAL THEORIES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 57 MERCANTILISM 57 CLASSICAL ECONOMISTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 58 vii
3 ADAM SMITH 58 UTOPIAN SCHOOL 65 THOMAS MALTHUS 66 DAVID RICARDO 69 SAY'S LAW 73 JOHN STUART MILL 73 CONCLUSION 74 4 MACROECONOMICS AND THE GREAT DEPRESSION 77 THE GOLT) STANDARD ERA 78 POST-WORLD WAR I RECOVERIES 80 THE GREAT DEPRESSION 82 MACROECONOMICCONCERNS 84 CAPITAL INTENSITY 88 CONCLUSION 96 5 LIMITS TO GROWTH 99 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER 100 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, TRADE, AND AID 101 STAGFLATION IN THE 1970S 102 ECONOMIC MODELS 103 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH SIMULATION MODEL 103 A STEADY-STATE ECONOMY 108 NO LIMITS TO GROWTH 110 MARKET MECHANISM AND PRICE SIGNALS 111 DEBT PROBLEMS OF THE 1980S 112 UNEVEN GROWTH IN THE 1990S 117 CONCLUSION PART III MACROECONOMIC MODELS MACROECONOMICFLUCTUATIONS 127 ECONOMIC GROWTH 128 BUSINESS CYCLES 132 AGGREGATE SUPPLY 134 AGGREGATE DEMAND 141 A SIMPLE MODEL OF AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY 143 CHANGES IN NATIONAL OUTPUT AND THE AGGREGATE PRICE LEVEL 145 THE GREAT RECESSION 151 CONCLUSION GROWTH MODELS 160 SIMPLIFYING ASSUMPTIONS 160 A BASIC SOLOW GROWTH MODEL 161 STEADY-STATE EQUILIBRIUM 163 viii
4 CONVERGENCE THEORY 167 INCORPORATING NATURAL RESOURCES 174 ENHANCED SOLOW MODEL 175 POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH 176 CONVERGANCE THEORY REVISITED 180 CONCLUSION EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 190 THEORY, EVIDENCE, AND POLICY 190 REVIEW OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS s - " 192 SIMPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 194 ESTIMATION OF A SIMPLE REGRESSION MODEL 198 MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 204 EMPIRICAL DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 210 AN EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR THE DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH 211 POClCY IMPLICATIONS ^ 216 MARKET-FRIENDLY STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT 217 COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK 219 CONCLUSION 220 DATA APPENDIX 222 PART IV DEMOGRAPHY POPULATION DYNAMICS 227 MEASURES OF MORTALITY 228 LIFE TABLES 233 STATIONARY POPULATIONS 239 FERTILITY 240 MEASURES OF FERTILITY. 240 AGE-SEX STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION 248 POPULATION PROJECTION 257 CONCLUSION POPULATION TRANSITIONS 268 THE EPIDEMIOLOGICAL TRANSITION, 268 THE FERTILITY TRANSITION. 278 THE DEMAND FOR CHILDREN 280 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND DECLINING FAMILY SIZE 284 DEMAND FOR BIRTH CONTROL 288 POST WORLD-WAR II TRENDS 290 AGING OF THE US POPULATION 294 LESSONS FROM EUROPE 297 CHINA'S POPULATION 300 MIGRATION 303 CONCLUSION 305 ix
5 PARTV SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 313 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT 313 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 316 COMPREHENSIVE INDICATORS OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 320 CHILD LABOR 333 MANAGING ASSETS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 340 CONCLUSION NATURAL RESOURCES AND CLIMATE CHANGE 353 GIFTS OF NATURE 354 NATURAL RESOURCE-INTENSIVE GROWTH 356 DUTCH DISEASE 364 THE NATURAL RESOURCE CURSE 368 RESOURCE SCARCITY > 370 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS 376 CLIMATE CHANGE 377 ENERGY AND EMISSIONS 378 CONCLUSION GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY 386 HUNGER AND MALNUTRITION 387 THE DEMAND FOR FOOD 388 THE SUPPLY OF FOOD 392 RESOURCE CONCERNS 399 AN AGENDA FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 403 THE NEED FOR POLICY REFORM 405 FISHING 410 CONCLUSION MARKETS AND THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT 414 MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 414 PERFECT COMPETITION 414 MONOPOLY 417 MARKET FAILURES 421 EXTERNALITIES 422 POVERTY - ' 431 MACROECONOMIC STABILITY 434 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT 435 INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 437 CONCLUSION POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 445 x TWO GUIDING PRINCIPLES 446
6 ACCOUNTING FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 447 THE ROLE OF MARKETS 448 SUSTAINABLE ENERGIES 450 AN AGENDA FOR TECHNOLOGY 453 GLOBALIZATION 455 POLICY IMPLICATIONS 458 REVOLUTION IN ATTITUDES 465 A MODEL OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR 469 CONCLUSION 476 * ' - Glossary 479 Index 493 xi
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