Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Research Officer

Transcription

1 215 Texas Economic Outlook: Strong Growth t o Continue Keith Phillips, Sr. Economist and Research Officer

2 National Economy Picking Up Last year, international weakness, policy uncertainty, sharp cuts in federal spending, and increased regulation restrained consumer and business spending. Meanwhile housing sector, consumer finances, and state and local government improved. Growth picking up this year despite slower growth due to weather in first quarter, strong second quarter bounce back - healthier growth likely to continue in rest of the year

3 Home Construction Has Picked Up Weather Impacted Q1 Data Millions, units Billions, $ Real single-family construction Single-family building permits Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau and author s calculations.

4 Index, 2=1 27 Home Prices Increasing U.S. Texas California Florida Nevada Source: FHFA House Price Index

5 Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability No Bubble Now (Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify) 1999:Q4 214:Q2 Low Point Date of Low Point United States : Q3 Los Angeles : Q1/Q2/Q3 New York : Q3/Q4 Miami : Q1 Austin : Q4 Dallas : Q3 Houston : Q3 San Antonio : Q3 Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

6 Household Balance Sheets in Better Shape Ratio, personal debt per capita/personal income per capita Auto loan 7.8% HE revolving 4.5% Student loan 9.6% Credit card 5.8% Other 2.8% U.S. Mortgage 69.6% Note: Data are through second quarter, (Q2).91 (Q2) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York U.S. Texas Student loan 1.9% Credit card 7.1% HE revolving 1% Auto loan 14.5% Other 4.1% Texas Mortgage 62.4%

7 Average Job Growth of 227K per Month in 214 Thousands,SA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan-5 Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

8 U.S. Leading Index Suggests Continued Good Growth over Next 6 Months Annualized % change month 12-month Source: Conference Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

9 RGDP Grew 3.1% in 213, October Blue Chip Survey Projects Around 3.% Over Next Four Quarters SAAR, Percent % Q4/Q % Q4/Q % Q4/Q Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators

10 In Past Several Years, Texas Economy Has Grown Above Trend and Stronger than Nation In past three years growth in energy, construction and exports provided a stimulus to Texas. In 213 manufacturing and federal government slowed somewhat. Energy and residential construction grew strongly but moderated. This year Texas job growth has accelerated. I expect 214 job growth around 3.5% and growth to stabilize in 215 to near 3.%

11 M/M SAAR 12 1 Texas Economy Growing Above Trend (Texas Business Cycle Index) % trend NOTE: Shaded areas represent Texas recession.

12 ND UT TX NV CO MT AZ CA NC SC HI TN ID FL IN LA GA NJ US KS WA MN MA OK KY IA MD AK MS NY IL VA SD VT OR NH MI MO WI NE OH RI DE PA AL NM CT DC AR WV ME WY Texas was Third Fastest Job Growth State in 212 Y/Y Percent Change, December TX 3 2 U.S. 1-1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

13 ND NV FL OR UT CO TX CA SC DE GA MN NC AZ WA IA IN US HI WI MA MO MI TN LA KS ID NY MT MS AL CT WY NH ME AK OH KY OK MD IL NE RI AR DC PA NJ SD VT VA WV NM While Texas Slowed in 213, It Remained Well Above the National Average Y/Y Percent Change, December TX 2 U.S Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

14 ND UT TX NV FL CO WA DE MT GA OR RI CA OK TN US NC ME IN KY AZ LA MO WV NY MA ID NM SD WI IA PA SC NJ AL VA NE MN OH AR MI WY KS HI DC IL VT CT MD NH MS AK Annualized Percent Change, Dec Aug Texas Continuing to Lead Most States 5 4 TX 3 2 U.S Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation s Percent, Job Growth Y/Y 5 U.S. 4 Texas Note: 214 data annualized from Dec. 213 to August 214 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

16 Texas Unemployment Rate Generally Falling Since mid-213 Percent, SA US unemployment rate Texas unemployment rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

17 Job Growth Broad-Based Across Industries Dec/Dec Percent Change 2 Energy, Mining & Natural Resources (Job Growth ) Construction Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Manufacturing Business Services Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Leisure & Hospitality Information Services Health & Education Government Share of Total Employment -5 (2.7%) (5.5%) (2.1%) (7.6%) (13.4%) (6.1%) (1.3%) (1.8%) (13.2%) (15.9%) Note: 214 employment data are annualized from Dec. 213 to Sept. 214 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

18 Texas Construction Contract Values Continue to Real $, Mil 5MMA, SA Increase Total 5 4 Residential 3 Non Residential 2 1 Non Building Source: F.W. Dodge, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

19 TX Home Inventories Remain at Historically Low Levels Months Texas U.S Sept Source: Multiple Listing Service

20 Delinquent Mortgages Increased Slightly, but Foreclosures in TX fell to Lowest in Decades TX Delinquencies US Delinquencies TX Foreclosures Started US Foreclosures Started Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

21 Percent 4 Texas Mortgages Have Lowest Rate of Negative Equity in the Nation Percent of Mortgages "Under Water" Q Q Nevada Arizona Florida Michigan California Idaho Texas U.S. Source: CoreLogic 2.7

22 Low TX Office Vacancy Rate Corresponding to Increasing Office Construction Percent Real, Millions $, 5MMA Office Vacancy Rate Office and Bank Buildings Contract Value '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 ' '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 '12 '14 Source: F.W. Dodge, CBRE, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 5

23 Index 1 TX Manufacturing Production and Orders Improving Since mid Sept Production Volume of New Orders -8-1 Jun-4 Dec-4 Jun-5 Dec-5 Jun-6 Dec-6 Jun-7 Dec-7 Jun-8 Dec-8 Jun-9 Dec-9 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14

24 Texas Exports Increasing Faster than U.S. Index, SA Real Jan. 2= Texas Value of the Dollar Texas U.S. minus Texas Source: U.S. Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 6.

25 1 Oil Prices Falling, Drilling Rig Count Stable Rig Count Oil price 3 Gas price(*1) 2 2 Source: Oil and Gas Journal, Baker Hughes

26 Texas State and Local Government Jobs Growing after 211 Fiscal Cliff Index, Jan 2 = U.S. Texas Texas State and Local share of Total Nonfarm Jobs % U.S. State and Local Share of Total Nonfarm Jobs- 13.8% 1 95 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

27 All Texas Metros Moved From Recovery to Expansion Long Before U.S. Nonfarm Employment Index Aug. 28= Austin Houston TX San Antonio Dallas Ft. Worth El Paso Corpus Christi 95 U.S.* *Indexed from U.S. Peak Employment in January 28 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

28 Recent Gains in TLI Indicators Strong but Somewhat Mixed Texas Leading Index Components, 3 month change June -August 1.41 Net Change in Texas Leading Index -.2 Texas Value of the Dollar.61 U.S. Leading Index -.12 Real Oil Price.35 Well Permits 1.1 New Unemployment Claims -.8 Texas Stock Index -.17 Help Wanted Index -.16 Average Weekly Hours

29 Texas Job Growth Likely to be about 3.5% in 214 and 3.% in 215 Millions of Jobs 12.5 Index (1987=1) Leading Index Texas Nonfarm Employment and TLI Forecast (with 8% confidence band) Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, author's calculations

30 Summary U.S. economy hit hard by cold weather, snow in first quarter rebounding since then. Texas has accelerated in first three quarters of year with strength across a broad range of industries. In fourth quarter of 214 most sectors will continue strong. Texas job growth likely will be faster this year than last around 3.5% Next year Texas job growth likely to moderate somewhat to about 3.% as labor market tightness likely to play bigger role