Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain Mexico: The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger

Transcription

1 Chambre de Commerce du Montréal Métropolitain Mexico: The Awakening of the Aztec Tiger Mexico Between North America and Latin America William Polushin, AMAXIS Inc. and McGill University

2 About William Polushin President, AMAXIS Inc. Business development and market expansion services firm Lecturing at McGill since 2003 Managing in North America, Managing in Asia, Managing in Europe, Management in Global Context Founding Director, McGill Program for International Competitiveness: Trade and Innovation Past President, Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Mexico 20+ years of international business experience, including 5 years (based in Mexico) as Vice President, Business Development, Mexico and the Caribbean for a global engineering-construction firm

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4 Mexico: The Land and the People

5 Mexico: The Land and the People Area (km 2 ) 1,964,375 9,984,670 Population (estimate) million 35.7 million Median Age Ethnic Groups Mestizo 60% Amerindian 30% White 9% Other 1% Religions (2010 est.) Roman Catholic 82.7% Protestant 1.6% Other/Unspecified 15.7% Languages (2011 est.) Spanish 92.7% Spanish + Indigenous 5.7% Other 1.6% Sources: Statistics Canada, The World Factbook Roman Catholic 40.6% Protestant 20.3% Other /None 39.1% English 58.7% French 22.0% Other 19.3%

6 Mexico: The Land and the People

7 Mexico s Economy

8 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (USD, Seasonally Adjusted, Billions) 2, , , , , , Canada Mexico Source: IMF

9 The Trillion Dollar Club (current USD) 2012e United States $15.65 trillion $15.08 trillion $14.50 trillion $13.97 trillion China $8.25 trillion $7.30 trillion $5.93 trillion $4.99 trillion Japan $5.98 trillion $5.87 trillion $5.49 trillion $5.04 trillion Germany $3.37 trillion $3.61 trillion $3.31 trillion $3.31 trillion France $2.58 trillion $2.78 trillion $2.57 trillion $2.63 trillion United Kingdom $2.43 trillion $2.43 trillion $2.27 trillion $2.19 trillion Brazil $2.43 trillion $2.49 trillion $2.14 trillion $1.62 trillion Italy $1.98 trillion $2.20 trillion $2.06 trillion $2.12 trillion India $1.95 trillion $1.83 trillion $1.63 trillion $1.27 trillion Russia $1.95 trillion $1.85 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.22 trillion Canada $1.77 trillion $1.74 trillion $1.58 trillion $1.34 trillion Australia $1.54 trillion $1.49 trillion $1.24 trillion $0.99 trillion Spain $1.34 trillion $1.48 trillion $1.39 trillion $1.46 trillion Mexico $1.16 trillion $1,15 trillion $1.04 trillion $0.88 trillion Korea $1.15 trillion $1.12 trillion $1.01 trillion $0.83 trillion , WP Source: IMF

10 Real GDP (% change) by Country e 2015f 2016f Source: Scotia Economics Canada USA Mexico Japan UK Euro Zone China India Brazil

11 The World in 2050 (GDP: PPP versus MER, constant 2009 US$bn) PPP 2050 Rank Source: PwC Country Projected GDP at PPP MER 2050 Rank Country Projected GDP at MER 1 China 59,475 1 China 51,180 2 India 43,180 2 US 37,876 3 US 37,876 3 India 31,313 4 Brazil 9,762 4 Brazil 9,235 5 Japan 7,664 5 Japan 7,664 6 Russia 7,559 6 Russia 6,112 7 Mexico 6,682 7 Mexico 5,800 8 Indonesia 6,205 8 Germany 5,707 9 Germany 5,707 9 UK 5, UK 5, Indonesia 5, France 5, France 5, Turkey 5, Turkey 4, Nigeria 4, Italy 3, Canada 3, Canada 3,322

12 GDP per Capita, (USD, current prices and PPPs) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Canada France Germany Japan Korea Mexico Sweden USA Euro Area China India , WP

13 Mexico s Trade & Investment

14 Mexico: Trade Structure Principal Exports Manufactured goods Oil and oil products Silver Fruits Vegetables Coffee Cotton Principal Imports Metalworking machines Steel mill products Agricultural machinery Electrical equipment Car pars for assembly Repair parts for motor vehicles Aircraft and aircraft parts Leading Markets U.S. Spain Canada China Germany Leading Suppliers U.S. China Japan Germany South Korea Source: The World Factbook

15 World Merchandise Trade Value US$B Exports 2013 Share (%) Value US$B Imports 2013 Share (%) World 18, , N. America 2, , U.S. 1, , Canada Mexico Source: Canada s State of Trade

16 World Services Trade Value US$B Exports 2013 Share (%) Value US$B Imports 2013 Share (%) World 4, , N. America U.S Canada Mexico Source: Canada s State of Trade

17 Mexico: Leading Exporter in Latin America Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

18 FDI Inflows (Billions USD) Host Region/Economy * World 1, , , , ,452.0 EU United States Canada Mexico Asia and Oceania Japan China India Korea Source: UNCTAD * Annual average

19 FDI Outflows (Billions USD) Host Region/Economy * World 1, , , , ,410.7 EU United States Canada Mexico Asia and Oceania Japan China India Korea Source: UNCTAD * Annual average

20 Major Investors in Mexico (FDI in Mexico per country of origin; 1999-Q1 2014)

21 Mexico: A Trading Hub (The country s FTA give privileged access to 1.2 billion consumers)

22 Foreign Trade Compass Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

23 NAFTA: Redefining North American Trade Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

24 Vehicle Production in NAFTA ( )

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26 The Pacific Alliance Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal Mexico holds the pro tempore presidency during

27 Mexico and the TPP Source: Mexican Consulate General Montreal

28 Trade Balance of Mexico with the World (2013)

29 Leveraging the trade relationship with Mexico to gain competitive advantage Traditional Trade Model Competitive Trade Model CanCo Exports FDI MexCo Exports FDI CanCo / MexCo Exports Imports FDI CanCo / IntCo Exports Imports FDI MexCo / IntCo Exports Imports FDI

30 Merci beaucoup / Thank-you William Polushin williampolushin@amaxis.net or william.polushin@mail.mcgill.ca Tel. (514)