BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey ISSN
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1 ISSN Mission Statement To help Kiwi businesspeople and householders make informed financial decisions by discussing the economy in a language they can understand. Market Firm The results from our latest monthly survey of licensed real estate agents around New Zealand show that perceived interest in buying from both investors and first home buyers has lifted over the past month. Interest in Open Homes remains strong, prices remain strongly perceived to be rising, but buyers are only marginally considered to be more motivated to act than sellers which is an interesting result. The survey comes at a time when media commentary regarding the shortage of housing supply in some parts of the country (Auckland) has risen strongly and results broken down by region show that conditions vary quite a bit around the country. In particular most regions are still perceived to contain more motivated sellers than buyers, but prices are perceived nonetheless as rising everywhere except Northland and Bay of Plenty. Overall the results show a strong housing market. Is the number of people going through Open Homes increasing or decreasing? Ongoing form interest A net 30% of agents feel that more people are going through Open homes compared with a net 26% feeling that way in. The trend in this measure has been upward since the middle of the year NET % OF AGENTS SEEING MORE PEOPLE THROUGH OPEN HOMES Is the proportion of Written Sales going unconditional increasing or decreasing? Sales firm A strong net 36% of respondents feel that more Written Sales are going unconditional. Page 1
2 We look at this measure to see if there has been any sudden change in the willingness of buyers to complete the deals which they signed up to and the result shows that hesitancy after initial signing is low. Buyers are highly committed PROPORTION OF WRITTEN SALES GOING INCONDITIONAL Are auction clearance rates increasing or decreasing? Clearance less strong A net 22% of responding agents feel that auction clearance rates are rising and this is the lowest result since. It is not clear why this reading has fallen back though perhaps the price expectations of sellers have for now moved ahead of buyer willingness to pay AUCTION CLEARANCE RATES RISING? Are requests for appraisals increasing or decreasing? Vendors potentially appearing A net 31% of respondents feel that requests for appraisals are rising. This makes three months in a row of strong results but as yet there is little to suggest that an over-supply of properties for sale is appearing ARE REQUESTS FOR APPRAISALS RISING? Page 2
3 Is the number of investors looking to buy increasing or decreasing? Strong There has been a lift in the net proportion of agents reporting that they feel more investors are looking to buy to a well above average 29% this month from 21% last month. This is the strongest result since our survey started and illustrates perhaps that the growing hype surrounding the housing market and the talk of property shortages has excited the buying imagination of many people of agents reporting yes ARE MORE INVESTORS LOOKING TO BUY? Source:BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey Is the number of first home buyers increasing or decreasing? Strong also A high net 40% of agents report that they are seeing more first home buyers in the residential real estate market. This is slightly up from a net 36% last month and just above the net 34% average since our survey started in last year of agents reporting yes ARE MORE FIRST HOME BUYERS IN THE MARKET? Source:BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey Do prices appear to increasing, flat or decreasing? Prices up There has been little movement in this measure in recent months with a net 41% of respondents noting that they feel prices are rising. The result appears to have been an aberration. Page 3
4 NET % OF AGENTS FEELING PRICES ARE RISING Prices viewed as rising Prices viewed as falling Who appear more motivated to transact the buyers or the sellers? A sellers market - just Only a net 3% of agents feel that buyers are more motivated than sellers. This is an interesting pullback from a net 12% in and 18% in though what exactly it signals is somewhat hard to discern. 2 1 NET % OF AGENTS FEELING BUYERS ARE MORE MOTIVATED THAN SELLERS Buyers more motivated What are the main factors holding buyers back? Buyers are less motivated than sellers There is a continuing decline in the number of agents reporting that people are not buying because they feel prices will fall. Finance concerns have crept up slight which is interesting as bank lending criteria are being eased. They feel prices will decline Worries about securing finance Not confident they can sell their house Poor quality of listings Other Page 4
5 What are the main reasons people are buying? Good interest rates and buying a first home are still the two biggest reasons why people are looking to buy a property. Fear of missing out/feel time is right for prices Trading up Trading down Shifting into town Arriving from overseas Relationship breakdown Commuting costs Schooling Want closer proximity to shops Want closer proximity to relatives Want closer proximity to health care services Investing First home Earthquake Good interest rates Other What are the main reasons Written Sales fail to go unconditional? Nothing major appears to be changing here.. Finance LIM report Builders report Earthquake/insurance Can't sell own house Other What are the main factors motivating vendors to sell? No changes here but one day this question is going to provide some very useful insight into where we are in the housing cycle. So we are going to leave it in. They think prices are going to fall Need the money Trading up Trading down Leaving town Leaving the country Relationship breakdown Commuting costs Schooling Want closer proximity to shops Want closer proximity to relatives Want closer proximity to health care services Page 5
6 Earthquake Bank request, job loss 0.1 Retirement Estate sales Other REGIONS With this section I like to start by looking at the last column and the interesting thing about that is the large number of regions where agents perceive that the sellers are more motivated than the buyers. This shows that the story of a rising housing market is not omnipresent. Be careful of the Southland results as only seven people replied. That is not a statistically valid sample size. However, in spite of a lot of the country remaining a buyers market, in all but Northland and Bay of Plenty prices are nonetheless seen as rising. Auckland sticks out as does Canterbury so these results back up those from other sources. First home buyers are perceived as active everywhere though not to a strong degree in Northland, while investors are not perceived as displaying more interest in Taranaki and Manawatu/Wanganui but they are strongly prevalent in Auckland and Waikato. Watch for that geographic linkage to spread as this cycle advances. # of. # of people % of Written Auction Requests Investors First Prices Buyers more Responses through Sales Clearance for buying home motivated? Open Unconditional rate Appraisals buyers Homes Northland Auckland Waikato Bay of Plenty Hawkes Bay/Gisborne Taranaki Manawatu/Wanganui Wellington Nelson/Marl. W. Coast Canterbury Otago Southland All For further information contact Tony Alexander, Chief Economist, , tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz The BNZ-REINZ Market Survey is run (usually) on the first Tuesday of the month after the first Thursday. In the sent to REINZ member addresses respondents are asked to click on a URL which takes them to a survey site. Respondents are asked if they feel various measures of real estate market activity are increasing or decreasing and to identify various factors in play influencing buyer and vendor behaviour. Results are collated within 48 hours and this report is distributed to all BNZ Weekly Overview recipients, REINZ members, and the media. This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person s particular financial situation or goals. Bank of New Zealand strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.. Page 6
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