NO MATH = A GEOLOGIST = A REAL JOB? Understanding Energy Flow and Policy Issues: The Pacific Rim. The World at Night. Global Population Distribution

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1 NO MATH = A GEOLOGIST = A REAL JOB? Understanding Energy Flow and Policy Issues: The Pacific Rim Stanford University Global Distribution Of Oil, Gas and Coal Dr. Nahum Schneidermann ChevronTexaco Overseas Petroleum April 23 p.1 Global Population Distribution The World at Night

2 Core Business Technology Capabilities Are Deeper and Broader Fossil Fuels Balance Major Technology Programs Gas-to-liquids Production Exports Imports Consumption OIL (1, b/d) 7, ,619 19,335 NATURAL GAS (Tcf) COAL (MM-Tons) 1, ,14.8 Deepwater E&P Shallow water operations Heavy oil recovery and upgrading Gasification Where is the oil coming from? Jan-'3 %-Total Dec-' Saudi Arabia 1,611 Canada 1, ,356 Mexico ,394 Nigeria Iraq U.K Next-generation global IT infrastructure Venezuela ,291 Angola Kuwait Colombia Projected World Energy Supplies Decarbonization 1 8 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent 6 per Year (GBOE) BILLION BARRELS 1993 World Energy Demand Coal Natural Gas Crude Oil Hydroelectric Solar, Wind Geothermal Nuclear Electric Heavy + Oil New Technologies Decreasing Fossil Fuels Hydrogen/carbon ratio Methane: H/C = 4 Oil: H/C = 2 Coal: H/C = 1 Wood H/C =.1 Methane Economy Hydrogen Edwards, AAPG 8/97 Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996 Year

3 Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones The Origin of Petroleum Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones Ro Generation Intensity Diagenetic Zone of Gas Formation.5 Increasing Depth and Temperature OrganicOrganic-rich Source Rock Thermally Matured Organic Matter Oil Oil Window = Principal Zone of Oil Formation.6 % R o 1.1 % R o Principal Zone of Gas Condensate Formation Principal Zone of Gas Formation Oil After Vassoevich et al fh8 Known Oil Source Rocks Petroleum System Elements Anticlinal Trap Top Seal Rock (Impermeable) Reservoir Rock (Porous/Permeable) Potential Migration Route Source Rock (Organic Rich) 2483 Excellent Good Fair 3

4 Major Oil Regions Resource Movement $$ P1D Prove d P1 U P2 P4 P5 P6 Contingent Resources P3 Unproved Prospect Database Discovered Reserve Opportunity Field Appreciation p Distribution of 21 World Proved Oil Reserves Countries with over 1B BBL Oil Reserves COUNTRY 21 WORLD OIL RESERVES (1,25.9 B bbl) RUSSIA Countries 29.5 hold 9 % of the 26.9 World s Proved 24. Oil Reserves U.K BRUNEI-MALAYSIA 4.3 DUBAI OTHER C.I.S SYRIA CONGO REP AZERBAIJAN 1.2 DENMARK 1.1 PERCENT OF TOTAL CUMULATIVE PERCENT p.7 21 Oil Reserves for Countries (Countries with >1Bbbl Oil Reserves) RUSSIA U. K. BRUNEI-MALAYSIA DUBAI OTHER C.I.S. SYRIA CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DENMARK Billion Barrels 25 p.8

5 21 Production Maturity Index (Produced / D.T.D.) 21 Daily Oil Production (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves) OTHER C.I.S. U.K. AZERBAIJAN BRUNEI-MALAYSIA RUSSIA SYRIA DENMARK DUBAI CONGO REPUBLIC Maturity Index % p.9 SAUDI RUSSIA U. K. BRUNEI- SYRIA OTHER C.I.S. DENMARK CONGO REP. AZERBAIJAN DUBAI Million Barrels / Day p.1 21 Global Oil (Reserves / Production Ratio) 21 Oil R/P Ratio (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves) OIL RESERVES (1,26 Bbbls) Undiscovered Reserves? Production Rate at 24 Bbbls / year years 243 p.12 DUBAI OTHER C.I.S.* RUSSIA* CONGO AZERBAIJAN SYRIA BRUNEI- DENMARK U. K Years Remaining p.13

6 Year to Which 21 Production Level is Sustainable (Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves) Crude Oil Reserves of the United States (21) Reserves vs. Production Ratio DUBAI OTHER C.I.S.* RUSSIA* CONGO BRUNEI- SYRIA AZERBAIJAN DENMARK U. K Year Billion Barrels 3 Reserve Production Ratio Ratio p.14 p.15 OPEC vs. Non-OPEC 21 Oil Well Producers (Number of Producing Oil Wells) OPEC Countries 21 Oil Production Comparison (Barrels / Day / Well) C.I.S. BRUNEI - MALAYSIA 539,754 6,898 72,255 53,32 15,277 14,238 8,535 6,888 3,386 2,991 2,492 2,298 2,374 2,374 2,298 1,685 1,567 Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ. U.A.E. U.K. 1,56 1,47 1,455 1,43 1,392 1,329 1,284 1,12 1, OPEC (Countries) Non-OPEC (Countries) U.A.E. 5,75 3,3 2,585 1,611 1,397 1, Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ p.16 p.17

7 Non - OPEC Countries 21 Oil Production Comparison (Barrels / Day / Well) U.K. BRUNEI-MALAYSIA C.I.S. 5,289 1,723 1,422 1, Petroleum Products One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides: One Barrel = 42 gallons Gasoline gallons Fuel Oil gallons Jet Fuel gallons Asphalt gallons Kerosene -.2 gallons Lubricants -.5 gallons Petrochemicals, other products gallons p.18 American Petroleum Institute, 1999 Petrochemical Products More Than 3, Products Detergents - Cosmetics Fertilizers - Weed Killers Medicine - Antiseptics - Anesthetics Plastics - Synthetic Fibers Synthetic Rubber Rust Preventatives Liquid Petroleum Gas North America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production American Petroleum Institute, 1999 p.26

8 Latin America Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Western Europe Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production p.27 Africa Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Middle East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production

9 Asia & Far East Oil Production & Consumption of Refined Products Major Gas Regions Consumption of Refined Products Crude Oil Production p.31 p.2 Regional Gas Price Chart Major Gas Pipelines WTI WTI US$/mmbtu US$/bbl. Jan- 99 May- 99 Sep- 99 Jan- May- Sep- Jan- 1 May- 1 Sep- 1 Jan- 2. HH Index Troll Zeebrugge Japan LNG CIF Thailand HH Index Troll Zeebrugge Japan LNG CIF Thailand WTI Mid ($/bbl) WTI Mid ($/bbl)

10 Distribution of 21 World Proved Gas Reserves Countries with over 1 Tcf Gas Reserves COUNTRY RUSSIA OTHER C.I.S. BRUNEI-MALAYSIA NETHERLANDS U.K. PAKISTAN BOLIVIA TRINIDAD THAILAND PAPUA NEW GUINEA GERMANY BANGLADESH MYANMAR (BURMA) 21 WORLD GAS RESERVES ( Tcf) Countries hold over % of the 124. World s Proved 19.8 Gas Reserves PERCENT OF TOTAL CUMULATIVE PERCENT p.7 21 Yearly Gas Production (Countries with > 1 TCF Gas Reserves) C.I.S. U. K. NETHERLANDS BRUNEI-MALAYSIA PAKISTAN GERMANY THAILAND TRINIDAD BOLIVIA MYANMAR (BURMA) BANGLADESH PAPUA N. GUINEA Trillion Cubic Feet / Year Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia production and/or number of wells, include half of Neutral Zone area. Data Source: Oil & Gas Journal, et. al. p Gas R/P Ratio (Countries with > 5 TCF Gas Reserves) Natural Gas Reserves of the United States (21) Reserves vs. Production Ratio RUSSIA BRUNEI-MALAYSIA OTHER C.I.S. NETHERLANDS Years Remaining Trillion Cubic Feet Ratio 2 2 Reserve Production Ratio p.24 p.25

11 Natural Gas Value Chain Gas Distribution Residential Commercial OIL (Billion Barrels) World Oil & Gas Proven Reserves To January 1, 21 BOE (Barrels,Oil Equiv. of Gas) GAS (Trillion Cubic Feet) Industrial North America South America Power Gen Europe E & P Large Industrial Africa Middle East Pipeline Transmission Far East WORLD TOTALS Power Generation Distribution p.37 Coal Reserves Showing Regional Shares (at end of 1998) Major Coal Producing & Consuming Countries (Million Short Tons) Producers 21 Exports Imports Consumers 21 (2)* (2)* China 1,459 6 China 1,383 United States 1, United States 1,6 13 Australia India 36 India 339 Russia 284 Russia 3 Germany 265 South Africa South Africa 177 Germany 226 Japan Poland Poland 151 North Korea 15 Australia 144 Indonesia 1 63 North Korea 15 Ukraine 9 Ukraine 94 World 5, World 5,263 6 Source: BP Amoco Source: EIA International Energy Annual 21 Includes all ranks of coal.

12 Major Trade Routes, 1998 (million tons per annum) Major World Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Exporters General global Coal Resources Source: IEA Global Hard Coal Consumption in Mt Generating Electricity from Coal Stack Coal Supply Electricity Conveyor Boiler Steam turbine Generator Pulveriser/Mill Substation / transformer Condenser Ash Systems Water Purification Source: IEA Source: IEA

13 Electricity Consumption MWh per capita Source: IEA Source: WEC More Generating Capacity is Fueled by Gas billion K W h Projected Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Petroleum Natural gas units expected to dominate new and replacement capacity additions Gas captures additional 13% of the power market by 225 Coal will remain the primary fuel for electricity generation Source: IEA Source: EIA AEO23

14 Gas The Shape Of Things To Come Wood & hay Global Energy Systems Transition Percent Of Market Coal & nuclear solids 1997 gases Hydrogen 4 2 Petroleum oil City Gas Whale oil Oil & hydroelectric Natural gas Natural gas Oil & natural gas liquids liquids Actual gas consumption Actual liquids consumption Actual solids consumption Source: GHK Company

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