Performance of Egyptian Cotton Exports in International Market

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1 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 pp Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke Assem Abu Haab* Program of Inernaional Trade & Policy of Agriculural Producs, College of Economics and Managemen, Norhwes Agriculure and Foresry Universiy, Yangling, Shaanxi , China Absrac The performance of Egypian coon expors (ECE) has been examined in he inernaional markes during he period The sudy has revealed a high degree of geographic concenraion of ECE in India, Ialy, he Republic of Korea, and Japan. Togeher, hese markes had impored abou 50 per cen of ECE during The compeiive advanage of Egypian coon has been found o be dependen on is qualiy no price. Japan, he Republic of Korea and Ialy had provided he mos sable markes for ECE during he sudy period. Linear regression analysis has suggesed ha one per cen increase in he Egypo-USA expor price raio leads o a decrease in ECE by abou 27.8 housand onnes. This analysis has also shown a posiive and significan effec of he World Trade Organizaion on ECE. The sudy has revealed he possibiliy of increasing ECE o he Indian and Korean markes. Inroducion Egyp is known as an exporer of high qualiy coon, which has an inernaional repuaion in special feaures ha arac niche marke consumers. Coon plays a dominan role in he counry s economy by meeing he domesic and expor demands, conribuing significanly o agriculure, indusry, employmen and expor earnings. The 2006 saisics 1 show ha Egypian coon provided a cash income o roughly one million small farmers. In addiion, he coon indusry labour force oals o abou 1 million. Wih he increasing imporance of Egypian coon a he domesic and inernaional levels, he governmen pays grea imporance o and consanly seeks o improve boh quaniy and qualiy of coon. This ensures he compeiiveness of Egypian coon in he inernaional markes. However, he share of Egypian coon expors (ECE) in he world coon expors has dropped from 4 per cen in 1980 o 1.06 per cen in The oal quaniy of ECE has also fallen from * assem_haab@homail.com 1 Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion, Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics, Agriculural Economics Bullein, housand onnes in 2003 o 87.2 housand onnes in This paper has examined ECE rends in he inernaional marke during he period I has idenified he geographic disribuion and major inernaional markes for ECE. In addiion, i has examined he compeiive posiion of ECE and finally, has idenified he imporan facors ha influence ECE. Mehodology and Daa Sources Boh descripive and quaniaive mehods have been used o show he relaive imporance of ECE a he naional and inernaional level. Averages and percenages of annual change have expressed he geographic disribuion of ECE, while ime rend equaions have expressed rends in ECE. The compeiive posiion expresses he changes of expor quaniies of a given commodiy, while hese changes reflec he shif in demand from a counry s expors o he expors of is compeiors. This has been analyzed by employing he following four economic indicaors: The relaive price index, which expresses he raio of Egypian expor price o he expor price of

2 226 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 compeing counries, i can be calculaed using Equaion (1): p = p s s / f (1) p f where, p s/f is he relaive price index, p s is he expor price of a given counry, and p f is he expor price of compeing counry. Marke share index explains he relaive imporance of expor quaniies of a given counry in he oal impors of anoher counry. The larger he value, he more he counry in quesion dominaes he expors o an imporing counry. I can be expressed by Equaion (2): QEe MS e / f = 100 QI (2) f where, MS e/f is he marke share of he coon expors of he counry (e) compared o he oal impors of a given imporing marke (f), QE e is he quaniy of coon expored by he counry (e) o he imporing marke (f) and QI f is he oal impors of coon by he counry (f). Marke peneraion index, which gives an indicaion of he degree o which a counry is able o expand is expors o a given imporing marke, can be obained from Equaion (3): MPI e / f = QE e / f ( TQI f + Pf QE f ) (3) where, QE e /f is he quaniy of expored commodiy () by he counry (e) o he imporing marke (f), TQI f is he oal quaniy of impors of he commodiy () by he counry (f), P fi is he producion of he commodiy () in he counry (f), and QE fi is he quaniy of he expored commodiy () by he counry (f). The higher he marke peneraion index, he easier i is for he counry in quesion o access he foreign marke and expand is expors. Insabiliy coefficien represens he year-o-year flucuaions in expors. I is defined by expor insabiliy. Mahemaically, i can be defined by he difference beween he acual and esimaed value of expors and can be esimaed by using he formula (4): Y ˆ Y IC = 100 Yˆ where, Y is he acual quaniy, or price of expors in he year (), Y^ is he esimaed value of he quaniy or price of expors in he year (), calculaed by he linear rend mehod. Finally, facors influencing ECE were idenified by employing he simple regression echnique. As per he available lieraure and previous sudies on Egypian coon, he following facors may affec Egypian coon expors: (x 1 ) = Percenage of Egypian coon selfsufficiency (%), (x 2 ) = Percenage of world coon self-sufficiency (%), (x 3 ) = Average world per-capia consumpion of synheic fibre (kg/person), (x 4 ) = Egypian expor price (housand USD/onne), (x 5 ) = Inernaional expor price (housand USD/ onne), (x 6 ) = US expor price (housand USD/onne), (x 7 ) = Raio of Egypian expor price o US price, (x 8 ) = Quaniy of Egypian coon producion (housand onnes), (x 9 ) = Culivaed area of Egypian coon (housand hecares), and (x 10 ) = Dummy WTO variable, which assumes a value of zero for he period before Egyp joined he WTO ( ), and akes he value of one during he period afer Egyp joined WTO ( ). The paper, firs, calculaed he simple correlaion marix for all independen variables (shown in Table 7). Secondly, he regression echnique was used o idenify he mos imporan variables, by choosing variables ha were mos highly correlaed wih ECE quaniies. The es was run beween he oal ECE quaniies as a dependen variable and he en facors menioned above being reaed as independen variables. Simple linear regression provided a good fi. The R square value, for he las wo variables,

3 Haab : Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke 227 revealed ha he exising model could explain 99.4 per cen of he changes in ECE. The F value has been found as , which was significan a he 1 per cen level, suggesing overall applicabiliy of he exising model. Daa sources included publicaions of he Food and Agriculure Organizaion (FAO), he Arab Organizaion of Agriculural Developmen, saisics released by he Egypian Minisry of Agriculure, he Cenral Agency for Public Mobilizaion and Saisics (CAPMAS), and he Egypian Minisry of Foreign Trade and Indusry. Resuls and Discussion Performance of Egypian Coon Expors The daa depicing he relaive imporance of Egypian coon a he inernaional and domesic levels have been given in Table 1, which shows ha ECE accouned for 1.06 per cen of world coon expors (WCE) in 2006, i being 35.9 per cen higher han i was in The maximum ECE was recorded in 2003, hiing 3.05 per cen of he WCE. The rend Equaion (1) in Table 2 shows ha he share of ECE increased significanly a a rae of abou 3.2 per cen annually during A comparison of he share of ECE wih oal Egypian agriculural expors (EAE) [Equaion (2) in Table (2)] shows ha ECE increased significanly a rae of abou 0.7 per cen annually. Table 1 indicaes ha he raio of coon expors o oher agriculural expors dropped from a maximum value of 13.4 per cen in 1994 o abou 5.7 per cen in Afer reaching 11.3 per cen in 2002, he share of ECE coninued o decline o 6.5 per cen in 2006, which may be aribued o he increase of oal EAE in recen years. As regards rends in he raio of ECE o Egypian coon producion, Table 1 shows ha i flucuaed Table 1. Expor quaniy and price of ECE wih relaive imporance of ECE in world coon expors, Egypian agriculural expors, and Egypian producion of coon: Year Quaniy of Expor price Percenage Percenage Percenage ECE of ECE of Egypian of Egypian of ECE in world (housand (housand producion agriculural coon expors onnes) USD) of coon expors Mean Source: Daa colleced and calculaed from: 1. FAO Trade Year Book ( ) (Differen Issues). 2. Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion, Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics, Agriculural Economics Bullein, ( ) (Differen Issues).

4 228 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 beween a maximum of 62.9 per cen in 2003 and a minimum of 4.2 per cen in 1992, he average value being 28.5 per cen for he period The rend Equaion (3) in Table 2 indicaes ha he raio of ECE o Egypian coon producion increased a an annual rae of abou 0.2 per cen. Figure 1 shows ha ECE quaniies flucuaed beween a minimum of 13 housand onnes in 1991 and a maximum of housand onnes in 2003, wih an average of 82.2 housand onnes during For he period analyzed, he rend Equaion (4) in Table (2) indicaes ha ECE quaniies have increased a a significan rae of 63 onnes per year, which means an average increase of abou 0.08 per cen or 82.2 housand onnes. Quaniy expored (1000 ons) Year Figure 1. Trends in quaniies of Egypian coon expors during he period The expor price of Egypian coon averaged a 2.63 housand USD during Equaion (5) of Table 2 shows ha he price has a significan decline a a rae of 3.82 USD per onne annually during As shown in Figure 2, he expor price decreased from is maximum value of 4.8 housand US dollar per onne in 1990 o 1.6 housand US dollars per onne in 2006, represening a decrease of 66.7 per cen beween 1990 and Due o he declining ECE prices in recen years, quaniies rose o an all-ime high of housand onnes in 2003, being per cen of he average for On reviewing Equaion (4) in Table 2, i can be concluded ha he pas five years ( ) in Expor prices (1000 US$) Figure 2. Trends in expor price of Egypian coon: general and he period in paricular, winessed he bes performance of ECE. This can be aribued o an increase in compeiive abiliy as a resul of declining expor prices, adopion of a new reform policy for Egypian agriculural foreign rade and governmen subsidies o coon farmers, which amouned o 33 million USD in Geographical Disribuion of Egypian Coon Expors by Major Counries of Desinaion Figure 3 shows he paern of percenage disribuion of ECE by major imporers. During he period under consideraion, India was he larges imporer of Egypian coon, represening 17.9 per cen of ECE, followed by Ialy (15.0 per cen), he Republic of Korea (9.3 per cen), and Japan (7.9 per cen). These op four imporers ogeher accouned for abou 50 per cen of he oal coon expors from Egyp during The phase-wise sudy of ECE during hree phases, viz , and has been depiced in Table 3. A perusal of Table 3 revealed ha Japan was he bigges imporer of Egypian coon in , wih a share of 13.4 per cen, followed closely by Indian (13.34 per cen). During he second phase, viz , he larges increase was seen in coon impors by Ialy, which increased from 10.3 per cen in o 23.8 per cen in , depicing an increase of 131 per cen over he firs period. ECE o boh Thailand and China recorded moderae increases of 37 per cen, and 13 per cen, respecively. In conras, German impors recorded a sharp fall of abou 53.6 per cen in , followed by decreases in Japanese (44.5 per cen), Korean (31.5 per cen) and Indonesian (24.3 per cen) impors. During he hird phase, , coon impors by India coninued o increase, represening one-fifh of ECE. The impor of Egypian coon by USA is worh noing, depicing an increase from 0.22 per cen o 10.3 per cen over he period I is also quie obvious ha Chinese impors have been gradually gaining larger shares of ECE, from 1.98 per cen o 5.37 per cen during he sudy period. Conversely, he seepes falls in impors of Egypian coon were recorded by Turkey and Ialy, whose impors dropped from 12.3 per cen and 23.8 per cen, in o 5.4 per cen and 12.6 per cen, respecively in These represen declines of 56.5 per cen and 47.3 per

5 Haab : Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke 229 Table 2. Trend equaions for relaive imporance of ECE in world coon expors, Egypian agriculural expors, Egypian producion of coon, expor price and expored quaniy: No. Daa Equaion -value Mean R 2 Significance 1 Share of ECE in WCE, % Yˆ = X * 2 Share of ECE in EAE, % Yˆ = X ** 3 Per cen of expor / producion Yˆ = X ** 4 Quaniy of ECE Yˆ = X ** 5 Expor price Yˆ = X ** Noe: *5% level of significance, **1% level of significance. Source: Calculaed from Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2. Table 3. Percenage disribuion of ECE by major counries of desinaion, during , and Couny of desinaion Average Percenage Average Percenage Average Percenage period of Egypian period of Egypian period of Egypian (in onnes) coon expors (in onnes) coon expors (in onnes) coon expors India Ialy Korea Republic Japan Turkey USA Thailand China Germany Indonesia Ohers Source: CAPMAS, Annual Saisics Book, Differen issues ( ) cen, respecively. Japanese and German impors of Egypian coon have also experienced sligh declines of abou 20 per cen. Thus, some desinaions had acquired greaer relevance, namely China and he USA. Cerain counries, like Ialy and Turkey, seemed o have araced ECE during paricular periods. Some oher desinaions, like Japan and Germany, have winessed coninuous declines across he periods analyzed. There is a higher degree of concenraion of ECE in a few counies like India, Ialy, he Republic of Korea and Japan where he impors of coon joinly amouned o abou 50 per cen of ECE during This heavy Indonesia 2.86% Germany 3.67% Thailand 4.19% Ohers 20.72% USA 6.81% Turkey 7.83% Japan 7.89% India 17.91% Ialy 14.98% Korea Rep 9.27% Source: CAPMAS ( ) Annual Saisics Book (differen issues). Figure 3. Percenage disribuion of ECE by major counries of desinaion:

6 230 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 reliance on a limied number of markes has creaed a vulnerabiliy o changes in demand for Egypian coon expors. A he same ime, geographic concenraion of expor desinaions has lef Egypian coon exporers vulnerable in he case of rapid changes in he poliical or economic siuaions of heir key rade parners. Compeiive Posiion of ECE in he Inernaional Marke Relaive Price Index The raio of Egypian expor price o expor prices of is major compeiors in inernaional markes has been depiced in Figure 4. This raio averaged o abou 2.60 in he Argeninean marke during , followed by he American, Ausralian, and Uzbek markes by average of abou 1.8 during his period. Higher Egypian expor prices have suggesed ha he compeiive advanage of Egypian coon depends on qualiy and no price. Egypian coon sill mainains is saus in inernaional markes despie low prices of he compeing coons, no o menion Egyp s commimen o a se of obligaions under he inernaional, regional, and Arab economic blocs, which led o an increase in he demand for Egypian coon regardless of is high expor price. Marke Share Index The marke shares of boh ECE and is major compeiors in he key imporing markes have been summarized in Table 4. Over he wo sudy periods, viz and , America was he major supplier of coon o he Indian marke, wih is marke share climbing from 9.9 per cen in o abou 38.8 per cen in Egypian coon ranked second afer American coon in achieving a marke share of abou 17 per cen of he oal Indian coon impors, represening an average growh rae of per cen for he sudy periods. For he Ialian marke, Grecian coon expors were significan, recording a marke share of abou 14.8 per cen in Egypian coon regisered he highes increase in marke share, amouning o per cen over he above menioned wo periods. Table 4 has also revealed ha he Japanese marke was dominaed by he American and Ausralian coon expors, since heir expors joinly accouned for 67.3 per cen and 75.3 per cen, respecively, in and Egypian coon expors accouned for 1.3 per cen and 7 per cen, respecively, of he Japanese oal coon impors during he sudy periods, regisering an average growh rae of per cen. Price raio Source: F.A.O. ( ) Trade Year Book, (differen Issues). Figure 4. Raio of Egypian expor price of coon o he expor prices of major compeing counries:

7 Haab : Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke 231 Table 4. Marke share of Egypian coon expors, and major compeiors in key imporing markes of Egypian coon during and Major Major exporers of coon (ME) Coon impors Toal impors of MI imporers Egyp USA Ausralia Greece Argenina of MI from ME ( 000 ones) of Egypian coon (MI) India Ialy Japan R. Korea Thailand Turkey Source: Colleced and calculaed from: 1. F.A.O., Trade Yearbook, ( ) Differen Issues 2. CAPMAS, Annual Saisics Book, ( ) Differen issues

8 232 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 Alhough ECE o Korean and Thai markes have increased by abou per cen and per cen, respecively, heir marke shares were always lower han 5 per cen. Lasly, as regards he Turkish marke, American coon expors ranked firs, growing from 21.4 per cen in o 54.5 per cen in These are followed by Grecian coon expors which amouned o abou 9 per cen and 19 per cen, respecively. The Egypian coon s marke share in he Turkish marke has winessed a fall of abou 45 per cen, as i decreased from 2.6 per cen in o 1.3 per cen in In conclusion, American and Ausralian coons are he major compeiors for Egypian coon in is key coon-imporing markes. Furher, he highes rae of ECE s marke share is 17 per cen in he Indian marke, while for he remaining major imporing counries Egypian coon s marke share does no exceed 7.7 per cen during Marke Peneraion Index The average marke peneraion index of Egypian coon for is major imporing markes has been presened in Table 5. I is quie obvious ha low values of he index reflec high level of compeiion and difficulies being faced by ECE while rying o penerae he analyzed markes. Excep for he Turkish marke, he value of his index has increased for all he coon-imporing markes over he wo sudy periods, and The values increased by abou per cen, 414 per cen, per cen, 250 per cen and 500 per cen, respecively, in he Indian, Ialian, Korean, Japanese and Thai markes. On comparing he values of marke share index in Table 5 wih he marke peneraion index during , i could be inferred ha he Indian marke ranked firs in erms of Egypian coon marke share, whereas i ranked fifh using he marke peneraion index. Simulaneously, he Korean marke ranked fourh in erms of he marke share of Egypian coon, while i ranked second using he marke peneraion index. These wo findings reflec he possibiliy of increasing ECE o boh he Indian and Korean markes. In conras, he Ialian marke ranked second in erms of he marke share of Egypian coon, while i ranked firs using he marke peneraion index. Accordingly, his finding indicaes he difficuly in increasing he ECE ino he Ialian marke. Insabiliy Coefficien Figure 5 porrays he rends in he insabiliy coefficien of expor quaniy and price of Egypian coon during I is clear ha ECE quaniies are characerized by insabiliy, since hey flucuaed beween a maximum of in 1990 and a minimum of 17.2 in 2005, wih an average of Since 1999, he rend of ECE has become more sable. In erms of expor price, Figure 5 shows ha i was more sable when compared wih quaniies, as is average was 24.4 during On reviewing Figure 6, i is found ha he Egypian coon has become more sable in all imporing markes examined. Did insabiliy coefficien drop in in he Turkish, Thai, Indian, Ialian, Korean and Japanese markes by abou 69.2 per cen, 21.2 per cen, 15.7 per cen, 3.6 per cen, 69.7 per cen, and 89.1 per cen, respecively. I has been found ha over he period , ECE winessed higher sabiliy in he Japanese, Korean and Ialian markes by regisering insabiliy coefficiens of 26 per cen, 44 per cen and 47 per cen, respecively. Major Facors Influencing Egypian Coon Expors Resuls of he linear regression, presened in Table 6, indicae a negaive bu significan relaionship beween he raio of Egyp-o-USA expor price and he quaniy of ECE. Since he increase in his raio by Table 5. Average marke peneraion index of ECE in major imporing markes during and Periods India Ialy Korea Republic Japan Thailand Turkey Source: Colleced and calculaed from: 1. F.A.O., Trade Yearbook ( ) Differen Issues 2. Arab Organizaion of Agriculural Developmen, Annual Saisics Book ( ) Differen issues. 3. CAPMAS, Annual Saisics Book ( ) Differen issues

9 Haab : Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke 233 Source: Daa colleced and calculaed from: 1. F.A.O. ( ) Trade Year Book (differen Issues); and 2. Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion, Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics, Agriculural Economics Bullein ( ) (Differen Issues). Figure 5. Trends of insabiliy coefficien of expored quaniy and expor price of Egypian coon: Insabiliy coefficien Insabiliy coefficien Source: Daa colleced and calculaed from: 1. F.A.O. ( ) Trade Year Book (differen Issues); and 2. Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion, Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics, Agriculural Economics Bullein ( ) (Differen Issues). Figure 6. Insabiliy coefficien of ECE compared o major imporing counries:

10 234 Agriculural Economics Research Review Vol. 22 July-December 2009 Table 6. Resuls of simple linear regression beween he ECE quaniy and he en- independen facors, Equaion R 2 F D.W Prob. Significance Y^c= X X ** (6.250) (-4.563) (2.686) Noes: The values wihin parenheses below he coefficiens are heir -values. **1 per cen level of significance. Source: Colleced and analyzed from: 1. F.A.O., Trade Yearbook, ( ) Differen Issues. 2. Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion, Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics, Agriculural Economics Bullein ( ) Differen Issues. 3 Egypian Minisry of Foreign Trade and Indusry, Annual Saisics Bullein ( ) Differen Issues. Table 7. Correlaion marix for he chosen independen variables influencing ECE Variables X 1 X 2 X 3 X 4 X 5 X 6 X 7 X 8 X 9 X 10 X X X X X X X X X X one per cen leads o a decrease in he quaniy of Egypian coon expors by abou housand onnes, i may be aribued o he price-leadership of he USA in he inernaional coon marke. This, in urn, reflecs he influence of he USA expor price on ECE. The resuls have also indicaed a posiive and significan effec of WTO on ECE. This increase in ECE, since Egyp joined he WTO, may be aribued o Egyp s aemp o find a firm place for is agriculural expors under he fierce compeiion which i faces, hrough he reform policy of Egypian foreign agriculural rade, adopion of modern producion echniques and use of new varieies o reach he high qualiy specificaions required in he inernaional markes. Conclusions The performance of Egypian coon expors (ECE) has been examined in he inernaional marke during he period Resuls have shown ha ECE amouned o 1.06 per cen of world coon expors (WCE) in 2006, being 35.9 per cen higher han in From 2002 o 2006, he share of ECE in Egypian agriculural expors (EAE) has coninued o decline o 6.46 per cen in 2006, which has been aribued o he increase in he oal EAE in recen years. The price of ECE has decreased significanly by 3.82 USD per on annually over he period Due o he decline in ECE prices in recen years, during 2003 a per cen increase in ECE was seen, compared o he average of The sudy has shown ha he period , winessed he bes performance of ECE, which was aribued o he increase in compeiiveness, decline in expor prices, adopion of a new reform policy for Egypian agriculural foreign rade, and governmen suppor o coon farmers, esimaed a 33 million US dollar in As for he geographic disribuion, he resuls have revealed ha some desinaions have acquired greaer relevance, namely China and he USA. Cerain counries, like Ialy and Turkey, seem only o have araced ECE during paricular periods. Oher desinaions, like Japan and Germany, have winessed coninuous declines. The sudy has also found ha ECE

11 Haab : Performance of Egypian Coon Expors in Inernaional Marke 235 is characerized by geographic concenraion, wih he impors of India, Ialy, he Republic of Korea, and Japan ogeher amouning o abou 50 per cen of ECE during he period On examining he comparaive posiion of ECE, he relaive price index has illusraed ha he expor price has always been higher of Egyp han oher compeing counries, which suggess ha he compeiive advanage of Egypian coon depends on qualiy no price. Tha highes ECE marke share was 17 per cen in he Indian marke. Excep for his rae, marke share index has no exceeded 7.7 per cen in oher imporing markes. However, he marke peneraion index for India, Ialy, Korea, Japan and Thailand has increased by abou per cen, 414 per cen, per cen, 250 per cen and 500 per cen, respecively over he wo periods, viz and Low values of his index reflec he high level of compeiion and difficulies in ECE. The sudy has revealed he possibiliy of increasing ECE o he Indian and Korean markes, whereas i has found difficul o increase ECE o he Ialian marke. The insabiliy index of expored quaniy has flucuaed beween a maximum value of in 1990 and a minimum value of 17.2 in In conras, expor price has been more sable han heir expor quaniies, recording an average of per cen. The ECE o he Indian marke have gradually become more sable from 1996 o The resuls of linear regression analysis have indicaed a negaive bu significan relaionship beween he raio of Egyp-o-USA expor price and he quaniy of ECE. An increase of one per cen in his raio leads o a decrease in he quaniy of Egypian coon expors by abou 27.8 housand onnes. The resuls have also indicaed a posiive and significan effec of he WTO on ECE. This may be he resul of Egyp s aemp o find a firm desinaion for is agriculural expors under he fierce compeiion which i faces, hrough he reform policy of Egypian foreign agriculural rade, adopion of modern echniques of producion and use of new varieies o achieve high qualiy specificaions required in he inernaional markes. Acknowledgemens The auhor hanks Prof. Guo Ya Jun, Professor of Economics, and Dr Marin, Lecurer of English, a he Norhwes Agriculure & Food Universiy for heir consrucive suggesions on he earlier draf of his paper. He is also graeful o he anonymous referee for his helpful commens. References Abdou, A. (1997) Reform, economic freedom and developmen of Egypian agriculural expors. Paper presened a he 5 h Conference for Agriculural Economiss, Egypian Sociey of Agriculural Economics. CDAE (Cenral Deparmen of Agriculural Economics) ( ) Annual Agriculural Economics Bullein of Minisry of Agriculure and Land Reclamaion (various issues), Arab Republic of Egyp. ARE ( ) Annual Saisics Bullein of Egypian Minisry of Foreign Trade and Indusry (various issues), Arab Republic of Egyp. ARE ( ) Annual Saisics Repor of Cenral Agency for Public Mobilizaion and Saisics (various issues), Arab Republic of Egyp. Ashraf, K. (2000) Compeiiveness of major Egypian expors. Paper presened a he25 h Conference of Saisics and Compuer Sciences, Cairo Universiy, Egyp. El-Gamasy, A. (2000) The fuure of Egypian coon expors. Paper presened a he Conference of he Fuure of Egypian Agriculural Expors in he Ligh of he Phenomenon of Globalizaion and he Regional Trade Agreemens, Egypian Sociey of Agriculural Economics. Fahia, R. (2000) The inernaional demand for Egypian coon. Journal of Egypian Economiss Associaion, 3: Fama, A. (2006) The effec of inernaional changes on he comparaive and compeiive advanages of some Egypian expor agriculural crops. Journal of Applied Sciences Research, 2: Magdalena, N. (2005) Reforming he Egypian coon secor: Compeiion and coordinaion. Deparmen of Economics Bullein No. 42 Lund Universiy. Mohammed, S. (1995) The fuure of Egypian agriculure in inernaional rade. CIHEAM Opions Medierranean s, B(9): Nayera, S. and Faima, A. (2006) An economic sudy of he mos imporan facors influencing Egypian agriculural expors. Journal of Applied Sciences Research, 10: FAO (Food and Agriculure Organizaion) ( ) Yearbook of Agriculural Saisics of Food and Agriculure Organizaion (various issues). AOAD (Arab Organizaion for Agriculural Developmen) ( ) Yearbook of Arab Agriculural Saisics (various issues).

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