China: RMB Offshore Market and Capital Account Liberalization
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1 China: RMB Offshore Market and Capital Account Liberalization Jun Ma 1 Summary This report proposes the next few major steps of RMB internationalization. It argues that to enhance the role of the RMB in international trade settlement and pricing, and as an investment/financing tool and a reserve currency, policy efforts in the coming five years should focus on 1) removing the bottlenecks for the development of the offshore RMB markets, and 2) liberalizing China s capital account and opening its domestic capital markets. The last section of this note lists a range of potential implications of China s capital account liberalization on the financial industry in Mainland China and Hong Kong. The main part of this note is an English summary of a policy study sponsored by China Finance- 40 Forum on RMB offshore market and capital account liberalization. This study was originally written in Chinese by a team led by Jun Ma. This study proposes the next few major steps of RMB internationalization. It argues that to enhance the role of the RMB in international trade settlement and pricing, and as an investment/financing tool and a reserve currency, policy efforts in the coming five years should focus on 1) removing the bottlenecks for the development of the offshore RMB markets, and 2) liberalizing China s capital account and opening its domestic capital markets. The last section of this note lists a range of potential implications of China s capital account liberalization on the financial industry in Mainland China and Hong Kong. Macro considerations 1 Jun Ma, CF40 member,chief Economist for Greater China, Deutsche Bank. 1
2 The offshore market is necessary part of the internationalization of the RMB, if the RMB is to become a major global currency. The Triffin dilemma does not necessarily pose a constraint on RMB internationalization, as long as its internationalization is conducted with an open capital account. The model of exporting RMB only via the trade channel is not sustainable. The risks of RMB internationalization and offshore market to China s domestic macroeconomic and financial stability including their impact on money supply, FX reserves, interest rates, the exchange rate, and the external balance sheet-- are quantifiable and manageable in the coming few years. The RMB offshore market Hong Kong should become the most important RMB offshore market and serve wholesale function among the various RMB offshore markets. Other offshore markets should play a role similar to retailers. By 2015, the RMB deposits in Hong Kong will likely rise to RMB2.5tn, the outstanding RMB bonds to exceed RMB1tn, and the daily RMB FX transaction to rise to RMB100bn. In promoting the offshore market in Hong Kong, policies should simultaneously support the development of the RMB recycling mechanism as well as the external circulation mechanism (including third-party usage of the RMB). In the medium term, the amount of offshore RMB for external circulation should rise to 50% of the total. A main role of Singapore s RMB offshore market should be providing RMB services to South East Asia countries. London has the potential to become the second largest offshore RMB market next to Hong Kong. Due to risk considerations, it may be too early to develop a full-fledged RMB offshore market in Mainland China (serving non-residents). Capital account liberalization 2
3 Without capital account liberalization, the internationalization of the RMB can only achieve less than 10% of its potential. Capital controls, if not removed, will become the key bottleneck for RMB internationalization in the coming years. Currently, the openness of China s domestic capital markets is less than 1%, vs 10-30% in most emerging market economies. It is perfectly feasible to liberalize the capital account and domestic capital markets in the coming five years with endangering macroeconomic stability, given the structural trend of a rapid decline in China s trade surplus and sharp rise in China s ODI. China should aim to raise the openness of its domestic bond market from less than 1% to 5-7% in the next five years. China should also speed up the pace of its opening the A share market. Measures to liberalize cross-border RMB investments are substitutable for measures to liberalize the capital account and opening the capital markets. Therefore, these two sets of reforms RMB internationalization for capital account transactions, and FX decontrol should go hand in hand. 18 policy recommendations Based on the above principles, we proposed a set of 18 policy measures for promoting the further development of the offshore markets and for opening the capital account and capital markets. We classify these proposals under three headings below. RMB trade settlement 1. Simplify the documentation requirement for RMB trade settlement; 2. Enhance the transparency and consistency of RMB trade settlement policy; 3. Promote the use of the RMB as a pricing currency for commodities. 4. Encourage the entry of banks from South East Asian countries in China, so that they can help promote the use of RMB for trade and investment activities. 5. Remove the remaining bottlenecks for RMB FDI and RMB ODIs. 3
4 Policies to promote the development of the RMB offshore market 6. Ensure RMB liquidity provision in the offshore market; 7. Encourage the listing and trading of RMB bonds, equities and other financial products in the offshore market; 8. Promote the 3rd party usage of the RMB in the offshore market; 9. Relax the NOP restrictions by HKMA on banks RMB businesses; 10. Establish CNH interest and FX fixings and develop CNH repo and future markets; 11. Establish a RMB clearing system in Singapore modeled after Hong Kong 12. Establish a CHIPS-like RMB cross-border payments and clearing system. Policies to liberalize the capital account 13. Increase the annual limit for FX conversion by Chinese individuals to USD200,000 per person per year, and permit each corporates to purchase FX up to USD2mn per year; 14. Significantly increase the QFII quota and the quota for foreign institutional investors invest in China s interbank bond market; 15. Permit RMB fund raisings by non-resident corporates on the Panda bond market and the International Board of Shanghai Stock Exchange, and from banks; 16. Gradually open the domestic RMB products market to non-residents, at a pace consistent with the development of the offshore RMB market; 17. Increase the flexibility (volatility) of the RMB exchange rate (vs the USD) by 3-5 fold in order to discourage excessive short-term capital flows; 18. Be prepared to introduce prudential measures (such as a withholding tax) to replace administrative controls on FX conversion when necessary. Impact of Capital Account Liberalization on China s Financial Industry We see several implications of capital account liberalization (together with the required increase in interest rate and exchange rate flexibility) on China and Hong Kong s financial sector: 4
5 A slower pace of RMB appreciation but significantly higher exchange rate volatility; Reduction in net interest margin for Chinese banks; Greater opportunity for global expansion, especially for larger financial institutions; Higher fee incomes including a surge in FX trading commission and income from derivative transactions; Greater access to cheap global funding; Ability to offer a wider range of global financial products to China s domestic investors; Significantly larger two-way capital flows (especially portfolio flows) via Hong Kong to and from Mainland China, benefiting Hong Kong-based financial institutions. 5
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