Regional Competitive Industry Analysis

Transcription

1 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Lane County May 2014 Lane Michael Meyers, Economist (503) Global Strategies Section One World Trade Center 121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205 Portland, OR 97204

2 Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY... 4 Regional Indicators... 4 Competitive Industry Indicators... 5 Growth Projections... 5 Caveats and Limitations... 5 SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY... 6, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job... 6 Growth... 6 Manufacturing and Wages... 7 Unemployment Rate... 8 SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES... 9 Location Quotient Analysis... 9 Shift-Share Analysis Regional Projections by Industry Page 2 of 14

3 Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Lane County Executive Summary This region includes just one county, Lane County. Lane County is one of two Oregon counties that reaches from the Cascades to the coast. Most of the region s employment is centered around the neighboring cities of Eugene and Springfield. The region is also home to the University of Oregon and the state s largest wood product manufacturing industry, which is also its largest manufacturing subsector. Private sector employment did not grow in the region between 2002 and 2012, and in fact decreased by 2.8 percent; one of four regions in the state to lose jobs over the ten years. The region s average wage is 17.1 percent lower than the statewide average. Despite the low average wage, the region has high paying, competitive industries in wood product manufacturing, forestry, freight trucking, heavy construction, and professional, scientific, and technical services. Manufacturing was 11 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2012, which was lower than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location quotient of 1.02, manufacturing is normally concentrated in the region and somewhat important to the region s competitive advantages. Wood product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region with about 3,300 jobs. The next largest subsectors are machinery, food, and fabricated metal products. The region has a lower percentage of manufacturing firms with 100 or more employees compared to the statewide average, and a higher percentage of manufacturing firms with 99 or less employees. The region experienced significant competitive advantage percent gains in agriculture, food and beverage manufacturing, e-commerce stores, educational services, apparel, textile, and footwear wholesalers, and software publishers between 2002 and The largest competitive advantage job gains, though, were in travel arrangement and reservation services, residential intellectual and development disability, mental health, and substance abuse facilities, grocery and related product wholesalers, and software. RV manufacturing, once a thriving industry in Lane County, was devastated in the recession. It experienced the largest competitive advantage percent and job losses in the region between 2002 and Support activities for forestry, paint, coating, and adhesive manufacturing, and professional, scientific, and technical services were other traded sector industries that experienced large competitive advantage job losses over the ten years. Warehousing and storage and navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments manufacturing were two leading emerging industries in the traded sector with high competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and 2012, and could be a source of high wage job growth in future years. in the region is projected to grow by 15 percent between 2012 and 2022, equal to the statewide rate. Construction is projected to grow the fastest after experiencing large job losses in the recession. Manufacturing is projected to grow by 13 percent, faster than the statewide average of 11 percent. Health care and food services and drinking places are projected to add the most jobs of all industries in the region between 2012 and Page 3 of 14

4 Introduction The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy consisting of Lane County. Regional trends in employment and wages are analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region. This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of the region s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential. Section 1: Sources and Methodology This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the Oregon Department, U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following indicators are used for this report. Regional Indicators Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wage to show the geographic distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends are also analyzed and compared to the state. This analysis is followed by analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. and average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a region compared to that industry s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry s share of employment in the region was greater than its share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on small, medium, or large-size manufacturers. Page 4 of 14

5 The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average. This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region s economy is from Oregon and the U.S. Competitive Industry Indicators Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location quotients. This analysis includes all sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted. Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region. Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shift-share analysis looks at industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to national and industrial trends. If a region s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shiftshare analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment. change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and losses in competitive advantage. Growth Projections Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region. Growth projections are a good way to identify industries where employment growth is projected to occur. Current projections cover the period from 2012 to Caveats and Limitations and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Department. This data is limited to employment and wages that are covered under unemployment insurance in Oregon. The Department estimates that about 90 percent of jobs in Oregon are covered by unemployment insurance. data presented in the Table 9 is total non-farm employment and not limited to covered employment in Oregon. The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The total number of manufacturing establishments comes from Quarterly Census of and Wage (QCEW) data from the Oregon Department. The percent of manufacturing establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data Page 5 of 14

6 is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number of establishments by employment-size class. Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job Private sector employment in this region accounted for 8.2 percent of Oregon s total private sector employment in The 2012 private sector average annual wage in the region was $36,195, 17.1 percent lower than the statewide average. Table 1:, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2012 Area Total Payroll Average Wage % of Region % of Statewide Ave. Wage Lane 112,337 $4,066,073,186 $36, % 82.9% Region 112,337 $4,066,073,186 $36, % 82.9% Oregon 1,373,607 $59,948,736,635 $43,643 N/A 100.0% Source: Oregon Depart ment, Quart erly Census of & Wages. Growth The region s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 11 th in the state. Private sector employment in the region decreased by 2.8 percent between 2002 and This region was one of three in the state to experience employment loss over the ten year period. Table 2: Change in Private Sector, Area Change Change Rank Lane 115, , % 28 Region 115, , % 11 Oregon 1,320,125 1,373, % N/A Source: Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 6 of 14

7 Manufacturing and Wages Manufacturing was 10.9 percent of the region s private sector employment in With a location quotient of 1.02, manufacturing is normally concentrated in the region and somewhat important to the region s competitive advantages. Wood product manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for over one quarter of manufacturing employment in the region. Machinery and food manufacturing are the next two largest subsectors. The region has a lower percentage of manufacturing firms with 100 or more employees compared to the statewide average, and a higher percentage of manufacturing firms with 99 or less employees. Table 3: Manufacturing and Wages, 2012 NAICS Industry Total Pay Location Quotient Average Wage Manufacturing 12,273 $583,999, $47, Wood Product Manufacturing 3,259 $154,986, $47, Machinery Manufacturing 1,602 $88,515, $55, Food Manufacturing 1,538 $60,487, $39, Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 994 $38,080, $38, Chemical Manufacturing 707 $53,031, $75, Transportat ion Equipment Manufacturing 643 $26,952, $41, Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 597 $20,212, $33, Computer and Electronic Product Manufactu 595 $40,649, $68, Miscellaneous Manufacturing 448 $16,073, $35, Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturi 404 $12,493, $30, Printing and Related Support Activities 299 $10,074, $33, Textile Product Mills 237 $7,496, $31, Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 198 $7,217, $36, Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 122 $4,329, $35, Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Compo 68 $4,637, $68, Primary Metal Manufacturing 57 $1,666, $29,229 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 7 of 14

8 Area Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2012 Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by -Size Class Total Manufacturing Establishments or More Lane % 20.8% 3.7% 1.1% Region % 20.8% 3.7% 1.1% Oregon 5, % 18.2% 4.2% 1.8% Source: Total establishments from Oregon Department, Quarterly Census of & Wages; employment-size class data from U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Pat terns, Unemployment Rate The region s unemployment rate mirrored the state s between 2002 and 2012, with the exception of 2009 and 2010 when the region had a higher rate than the state. The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 12.1 percent, in 2009 and has since declined to a rate similar to the state s, but the region s rate remains elevated compared to the U.S. The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 5.2 percent, occurred in Page 8 of 14

9 Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries Location Quotient Analysis Forestry and wood product manufacturing is the industry group with the highest location quotients in the region. The three industries within the group with the highest location quotients have some of the highest location quotients of any industries in any region of the state. All three pay well above the region average wage. Cabinet manufacturing, freight trucking, heavy construction, and professional, scientific, and technical services publishers are additional industries with high location quotients in the region that pay higher than average wages. Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients Private Sector, 2012, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Greater than 100, Industries with Average Wage above Region Average Shaded NAICS Industry Total Pay Location Quotient Average Wage 3212 Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manu 1,681 $63,362, $47, Support Activities for Forestry 208 $11,803, $47, Sawmills and Wood Preservation 1,182 $58,415, $52, Religious Organizations 1,274 $6,778, $18, Other Wood Product Manufacturing 396 $9,898, $33, Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cab 352 $7,758, $41, Specialized Freight Trucking 557 $12,333, $37, Business Support Services 1,159 $14,205, $23, Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction 479 $10,514, $50, Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, M 1,221 $7,614, $22, Beverage Manufacturing 404 $1,994, $20, Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted 1,985 $7,482, $17, Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 325 $1,282, $18, Gasoline Stations 785 $6,651, $16, Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing 143 $1,450, $25, Department Stores 1,727 $15,632, $23, General Freight Trucking 598 $16,481, $42, Civic and Social Organizations 308 $1,460, $9, Elementary and Secondary Schools 638 $4,712, $17, Offices of Dentists 1,288 $15,603, $48, Grocery Stores 3,498 $19,804, $21, Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1,043 $8,384, $38, Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 503 $1,184, $25, Building Material and Supplies Dealers 1,145 $8,026, $24, Offices of Physicians 2,811 $51,738, $67, Consumer Goods Rental 144 $1,492, $28, Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 752 $5,270, $32, Residential Building Construction 748 $5,022, $27,595 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 9 of 14

10 Shift-Share Analysis Industries that experienced significant competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and 2012 included those in agriculture, food and beverage manufacturing, e-commerce stores, educational services, apparel, piece goods, and notions merchant wholesalers, and software publishers. Travel arrangement and reservation services (includes Royal Caribbean), residential intellectual and development disability, mental health, and substance abuse facilities, grocery and related product merchant wholesalers, and software publishers were the leading industries in competitive advantage job gains between 2002 and Between 2002 and 2012, motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing, primarily RV manufacturing, experienced the largest competitive advantage percent and job losses in the region. Support activities for forestry, paint, coating, and adhesive manufacturing, and professional, scientific, and technical services were other traded sector industries that experienced large competitive advantage job losses between 2002 and Warehousing and storage and navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments manufacturing were two leading emerging industries (location quotient less than 1.0) in the traded sector with high competitive advantage percent gains between 2002 and Page 10 of 14

11 Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 100 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 5615 Travel Arrangement and Reservation Services % Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation % Vegetable and Melon Farming % Social Advocacy Organizations % Educational Support Services % Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses % Grain and Oilseed Milling % Apparel, Piece Goods, and Notions Merchant Wholesa % Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, M 1, % Other Crop Farming % Grocery and Related Product Merchant Wholesalers % Dairy Product Manufacturing % Special Food Services % Beverage Manufacturing % Other Schools and Instruction % Specialty Food Stores % Software Publishers 1, % Offices of Other Health Practitioners 1, % Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores % Other Wood Product Manufacturing % Used Merchandise Stores % Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production % Local Messengers and Local Delivery % Industrial Machinery Manufacturing % Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports, and Similar Events % Book Stores and News Dealers % Performing Arts Companies % Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Me % Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing % 101 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 11 of 14

12 Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.0 and Greater than 100 NAICS Industry 2012 Location Quotient Competitive Share Percent Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Competitive Share Jobs 3362 Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing % Support Activities for Forestry % Hardware, and Plumbing and Heating Equipment and % Commercial and Industrial Machinery and Equipment % Waste Collection % Vocational Rehabilitation Services % Support Activities for Road Transportation % Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing % Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 1, % Activities Related to Real Estate % Department Stores 1, % Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories % Child Day Care Services % Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction % Machinery, Equipment, and Supplies Merchant Wholes % Religious Organizations 1, % Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers % Building Material and Supplies Dealers 1, % Lumber and Other Construction Materials Merchant W % Automotive Repair and Maintenance % -103 Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.0 and Greater than 100 Location Competitive Competitive NAICS Industry 2012 Quotient Share Percent Share Jobs 4931 Warehousing and Storage % Special Food Services % Shoe Stores % Grantmaking and Giving Services % Professional and Commercial Equipment and Supplies M % Nondepository Credit Intermediation % Health and Personal Care Stores % Household Appliances and Electrical and Electronic Go % Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control % Home Furnishings Stores % Couriers and Express Delivery Services % Private Households % Insurance Carriers % Securities and Commodity Contracts Intermediation a % Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools % Other Specialty Trade Contractors % Automotive Equipment Rental and Leasing % 4 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of & Wages. Page 12 of 14

13 Projections by Industry Total regional employment is projected to grow by 21,700 jobs between 2012 and 2022, a 15 percent increase, which is equal to the projected statewide growth. Construction is expected to experience the greatest percent increase in employment over the next ten years after experiencing large job losses in the recession. Manufacturing employment is projected to increase 13 percent between 2012 and 2022, 2 percentage points higher than the statewide projection. Health care and food services and drinking places are projected to experience the greatest absolute increase in jobs of all industries in the region between 2012 and Page 13 of 14

14 Table 9: Regional Industry Forecast, Lane County Change Change Total payroll employment 142, ,000 21,700 15% Total private 113, ,200 18,000 16% Nat ural resources and mining 2,100 2, % Mining and logging 800 1, % Construction 5,100 6,400 1,300 25% Manufacturing 12,300 13,900 1,600 13% Durable goods 8,400 9,700 1,300 15% Wood product manufact uring 3,300 3, % Transportation equipment manufact ur % Nondurable goods 3,900 4, % Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,000 30,100 3,100 11% Wholesale trade 5,400 6, % Retail trade 18,600 20, % Transportation, warehousing, and utilit ies 3,000 3, % Information 3,200 3, % Financial activities 7,000 8,000 1,000 14% Professional and business services 14,800 17,500 2,700 18% Administrative and support services 7,200 8,500 1,300 18% Private educational and health services 22,400 26,500 4,100 18% Private educational services 1,700 2, % Healt h care and social assistance 20,700 24,500 3,800 18% Health care 17,900 21,160 3,260 18% Leisure and hospit ality 14,500 17,400 2,900 20% Accommodation and food services 12,700 15,300 2,600 20% Accommodat ion 1,500 1, % Food services and drinking places 11,200 13,600 2,400 21% Other services 4,800 5, % Government 29,100 32,800 3,700 13% Federal government 1,600 1, % State government 12,300 14,200 1,900 15% State education 9,800 11,000 1,200 12% Local government 15,200 16,900 1,700 11% Local education 8,200 9,300 1,100 13% Source: Oregon Department Page 14 of 14