Global fuel consumption in light duty vehicle transportation Summer Academy on Energy

Transcription

1 Global fuel consumption in light duty vehicle transportation Summer Academy on Energy This presentation is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors PricewaterhouseCoopers Hungary Ltd. All rights reserved. PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers Hungary Ltd. and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details.

2 Introduction

3 Budapest and Győr 572 North America and the Caribbean people Western Europe people people Asia people South and Central America people Middle East and Africa people Central and Eastern Europe 7857 people Australasia and Pacific Islands 5885 people 158 countries 776 cities people world-wide.

4 A PwC autóipari tanácsadó csoportja és kompetenciaközpontja In the global automotive industry, opportunities and risks are everywhere - in emerging and mature markets alike. To help meet these challenges, many automotive companies have chosen to work with a professional services organisation that has its finger on the pulse of the automotive industry - an organisation that deeply understands the industry's fundamental business and financial issues. In PwC s Global Automotive practice, we bring together experts in these areas and more to help you address these important issues. Because we know: only a global organisation with the highest level of automotive industry expertise can add value to your operations. Helping energy companies succeed PwC is a leading advisor to the global energy industry, working with every segment of the business from upstream to midstream to downstream to provide business solutions tailored to meet your needs. For more than 100 years, we have helped energy companies succeed. We look forward to the opportunity to work with your company. For more than 100 years, we have helped energy companies succeed. To learn more about our services for oil and gas companies, please download our Statement of Capabilities.

5 Global energy consumption and supply 1 PwC 5

6 Global energy consumption by primer energy source 100% 90% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 6% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 27% 26% 25% 27% 29% 30% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 24% 39% 38% 38% 37% 34% 33% Other reneables Hydro Nuclea Coal Gas Oil 0% *Source: BP Statictical Review of World Energy; BP Energy PwC Outlook 2035, June

7 Global energy consumption by region 100% 90% 22% 80% 3% 3% 70% 4% 60% 50% 39% 40% 30% 27% 28% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 32% 30% 33% 3% 5% 5% 28% 38% 40% 3% 6% 3% 6% 5% 5% 25% 23% Asia-Pacific Africa Middle-East C&S America Europe & Eurasia North-America 20% 29% 29% 30% 27% 10% 23% 22% 0% *Source: BP Statictical Review of World Energy; BP Energy PwC Outlook 2035, June

8 Major oil producers and reserves Top 5 oil producers (2013): Russia Saudi Arabia U.S. Iran China Top 5 oil reserves (2013): Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq PwC Source: wikipedia & U.S. Energy Information Administration 8

9 Major oil and gas trade movements Major trade movements indicates the main producers, importers and energy dependants PwC 9

10 Global energy consumption by sector Primary energy resources Oil Gas Coal Nuclear power Renewables: Wind, solar, hydro etc. Secondary energy resources Electricity Petroleum, gasoline, diesel Coke Etc. Consumption by sector Transportation (road, rail, air, water, and pipeline) ~25% Residential (households) ~15% Commercial (businesses, organisations, institutions providing services) ~10% Industrial (manufacturing, agriculture, minig, building) ~50% PwC 10

11 Global energy consumption by sector (illustration) PwC 11

12 Transportation sector energy consumption by vehicle and fuel type *Source: BP Statictical Review of World Energy; BP Energy Outlook 2035, June 2014 PwC 12

13 Global energy consumption in transportation 2 PwC 13

14 Three main parameters of energy consumption in transportation Vehicle fuel efficiency Vehicle travel Vehicle travel Denotes the type of travel/driving and the number of miles driven Vehicle population Vehicle population The number of vehicles on the road Energy consumption in transportation Vehicle fuel efficiency Determined by the technical energy efficiency PwC 14

15 Source of expected fuel consumption PwC 15

16 Light duty vehicles by engine and fuel type Engine type Hybrid type Fuel type Advantage Disadvantage Combustion - Diesel Well established infrastructure; Cheap production cost; - Gasoline Well established technology High level of CO2 emission; High level of noise and air pollution; Expensive maintenance cost (fuel) Electric - - Hybrid - electric Full Mild Plug-in Diesel Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel Compared to combustion engine: Lower level of CO2 emission; Less noise and air pollution; Financial incentives; Cheap maintenance Compared to combustion engine: Lack of well estalbished infrastructure; Tax revenue decrease (for the state); Higher production cost; Shorter range Waste batteries as hazardous waste; Safety concerns Gasoline Natural gas vehicle* - - Hybrid natural gas vehicle* - Diesel Gasoline Compared to combustion engine: Fewer emission; Emissions contain less pollutant; Better fuel efficiency; Cheaper maintenance cost (fuel) Compared to combustion engine: Lack of well estalished infrastructure; Less space in the car; Higher production costs; Shorter range; * PwC Autofacts doesn t deal with natural gas vehicle sales data, hence, information concerning natural gas vehicles over the slides derives from other sources. PwC 16

17 Quantity Expected global sales of light duty vehicles Combustion, electric, hybrid LDV global sales (Forecast) Year PwC 17

18 Light duty vehicle sales distribution Sales share of light duty vehicles using alternative fuels is expected to rise by 2,3% points by ,23% 2,82% 0,88% 4,49% Combustion Hybrid Electric 96,95% 94,63% PwC

19 Growth rate of LDV sales by fuel type According to global light duty vehicle sales forecast electric fuel sales is expected to grow the most dynamically Expected growth rate of LDV sales by fuel type between % 28% 11% Global combustion car sales is estimated to grow annually by 3,7% on average Global electric car sales is estimated to grow annually by 27,7% on average Global hybrid car sales is estimated to grow annually by 11,3% on average PwC 19

20 Expected global sales of natural gas vehicles Expected growth rate of NGV between % Global natural gas light duty vehicles sales is estimated to grow annually by 5,7% on average *Source: Navigant Research, Light Duty Natural Gas Vehicles Report, 2014 PwC 20

21 Fuel efficiency as a driver of energy consumption Over the next decades consumers will be driving much more fuel efficient vehicles *Source: NACS, Future of fuels, 2014 PwC 21

22 Factors influencing the sales of vehicles using different types of fuel Regulations, fuel prices, resources and technology drive changes in the fuel mix 01 Regulation Energy security and sustainable development (including energy efficiency, and demand response) are the most important elements regulators deal with when establishing and improving energy policy. 03 Infrastructure Fuel supply is determined by raw material production, production capacity, production and transportation security. Fuel consumption 02 Costs There are several factors affecting the fuel prices: the price of the raw material, the demand and supply, connected regulations, technology. Maintenance cost of the vehicles is also important for the TCO. 04 Technology and price The need for improved fuel efficiency, lower production costs and meeting the requirements of policy makers are the main drivers of technology developments. PwC 22

23 Factors influencing fuel consumption Regulation The need for reducing green house gas and pollutant emmision led to introducing energy policies determining emission standards for light duty vehicles as well. Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change o o It commits its Parties among developed countries by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets, aiming the reduction of green house gases contributing to global warming. Industrialized countries and the European Community committed to reduce GHG emissions to an average of five percent against 1990 levels in the period of o Over the re-negotiations in 2009 the EU committed itself to reduce GHG emmisisons by 30% by International Energy Agency strategic goals o o o o o Set targets for electric-drive vehicle sales and framework for industry and government cooperation to reach those targets, e.g. by 2020, global sales should achieve at least 5 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (combined) per year; Develop coordinated strategies to support the market introduction of electric-drive vehicles by making vehicles cost competitive with today s internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, and ensuring adequate recharging infrastructure is in place; Improve industry understanding of consumer needs and behaviours; Foster energy storage RD&D initiatives to reduce costs and address resource-related issues, e.g. reduce battery costs; Develop performance metrics for characterising vehicles, e.g. driving range, battery requirements, energy use, emissions. EU policies and legisltation: directive about alternative fuel infrastructure, 20-20, new vehicle avg. emission rates, Horizon 2020 projects on smart public transportation and fuel cells PwC 23 Governmental programs (US for car manufacturers, California for buyers, China for manufacturers and infrastructure etc)

24 Factors influencing fuel consumption The security of oil supply affects the consumption of gasoline and diesel fuels *Source: BP Statictical Review of World Energy, June 2014 PwC 24

25 Factors influencing fuel consumption Electricity prices (illustration from UK market) *Source: Annual Power Rises on Carbon, Coal and Gas. Catalyst Energy Solution, June 2014 PwC 25

26 Factors influencing gasoline and diesel consumption Infrastructure Number of LPG stations in Europe (2014) Number of charging stations in Europe (2013) PwC Source: mylpg.eu, PwC Hungary, 26

27 Thank you for your attention Péter Gyenes Senior manager PwC