Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.

Transcription

1 Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. International Maritime Consultancy, Shipping Finance Advisory & Ship-brokerage U.S. Energy Exports, and the Panama Canal Expansion United States Association for Energy Economics / NCAC Washington, D.C., July 15 th, 2016

2 Safe Harbor Statements And seas but join the regions they divide Alexander Pope In Sea affairs, nothing is impossible, and nothing is improbable Admiral Lord Nelson, writing from HMS Victory in 1804 If you want to build a ship, don t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea Antoine de Saint-Exupéry KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 2

3 Agenda Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The Old Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The New Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. June 2016 Page 3

4 Company Introduction Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. is New York-based firm with worldwide footprint & strong, well-qualified management team Active in shipping finance advisory, restructurings, maritime strategy, private placements, vessel valuations, ship brokerage and vessel management Clients include: Financial institutions seeking shipping market expertise and advisory on shipping matters Financial institutions in need of origination of transactions in shipping Banks seeking to dispose of shipping assets and/or shipping loans Shipowners seeking advise to access the financial markets Shipowners seeking advisory and investors with existing legacy concerns Shipowners seeking financial partners to benefit from present market trough Dry bulk, tankers, containerships and offshore International flag business primarily, but also Jones Act expertise Proven track record of market outperformance and delivering value to clients KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 4

5 Company Information Management team bears decades of diverse, proven shipping expertise, including port operations, chartering, ship brokerage and demolitions, vessel management, shipping finance and vessel valuations, co-placements and JVs Company established in 2011, corporate history back to 2008; presently six employees, on both full- and part-time basis Impeccable credentials & references (gladly provided upon request) Well-representative existing clientele base Geographic Distribution Americas, Europe (UK, Germany, Greece, Scandinavia), SE Asia (Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand), Far East (Hong Kong, Japan) China Corollary Industry Functions Shipowners, Charterers, Vessel Managers / Operators, Oil Companies (including National Oil Companies), Cargo Interests and Traders, Financial Owners & Lessors, Lenders & Creditors, Service Providers Shipping-market Segmentation: Tankers (crude oil, products tankers, chemical tankers), Dry bulk vessels (capesize, panamax, supramax/handymax, handysize), Purpose-built vessels, Containerships (postpanamax to feedership vessels), Offshore & Drilling Jones Act Assets Capital-structure Segmentation: publicly-traded companies and privately-held companies, Fortune 10 companies and private independent owners, financially-oriented owners & lessors KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 5

6 Agenda Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The Old Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The New Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. June 2016 Page 6

7 Panama Canal Traffic by Traffic Segment KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 7

8 Top 15 Countries of Origin and Destination of Cargo (in long tons, 2015) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 8

9 Panama Canal Traffic by Traffic Segment KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 9

10 Petroleum Traffic via the Panama Canal (2015) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 10

11 Agenda Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The Old Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The New Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 11

12 Historical Freight Market Data KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 12

13 World Fleet Development by Sector KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 13

14 Agenda Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The Old Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The New Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 14

15 Panama Canal Update KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 15

16 Expanded Panama Canal (Tankers) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 16

17 Expanded Panama Canal Update (Tankers, in comparison) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 17

18 Expanded Panama Canal Sanity Check Cost of Expansion: ~ $5.3 billion July 1 st, 2016: Containership MV MOL Benefactor (10,000 TEU, ) pays $829,468 in canal tolls for northbound crossing; highest canal dues ever paid, until now At ~ $1 mil per crossing per post-panamax containership, appr. 5,500 such crossings will be required to recoup investment. In 2015, 12,000 ocean-going vessels crossed the Canal, in total, thus it will take several years of transits by incrementally larger containerships to recoup investment. It costs appr. $1,700 to transport a container from China to US East Coast, in a weak freight market; based on full-capacity utilization, appr. $83 per container on MV MOL Benefactor just to cross the Canal, appr. 5% of the total freight cost. For capesize vessel (present freight market of $6,000 pd and est. of $10,000 in fuel expense), it will take two weeks of additional savings to justify $500,000 in canal dues. Timing of completion of expanded Panama Canal is un-fortunate as it coincides with multi-year lows of the shipping industry. Real worth of Panama Canal will be seen when shipping markets revert to the mean, and world economic growth is much higher than present (~1-2%) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 18

19 Panama Canal Unknowns It s tough to make predictions, especially about the future, it has been said. Many variables can affect volume of future transits, trades and trading routes, and cargoes: State of freight market (i.e. tonnage supply and demand, economic growth, etc) Price of oil as fuel (bunkering expense for vessels) Port infrastructure (i.e. terminals, dredging, etc) Cost of capital and interest rates (i.e. Capex for vessels, trade finance cost, etc) Trading patterns (LNG has been traded on long term contracts and trains with nascent spot market) Pricing models (LNG vs oil) Regulatory and political events (emission laws, clean energy, etc) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 19

20 Newsflash: In the U.S., Largest Oil Reserves in the World Financial Times, July 4 th, 2016, based on report produced by Rystad Energy KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 20

21 Newsflash: Shale Oil is Low Cost Oil Financial Times, July 13 th 2016, based on Wood Mackenzie Analysis KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 21

22 Thoughts on Crude Oil and Panama Canal Transits U.S. has great potential as exporter of crude oil (swing producer?) Lifting of export ban of crude oil in 2015 Presently, appr. 600,000 bbl per diem exported by US Seaborne exports mostly to Europe (UK, Continent, Med) Mostly on Panamax or Aframax tankers (400, ,000 bbl per shipment / tanker) Still a developing trade in early stages, but so far in small parcels over short distances India, SE Asia, China and Far East show strongest demand in crude imports Middle East (and now Iran) likely first source U.S. crude oil can only exported in supertankers (i.e. Suezmax, VLCC) costcompetitively to countries in the Pacific Rim Expanded Panama Canal cannot accommodate such tankers Possibly, transshipment via Panamax / Aframax tankers and/or pipeline and reverse lightering of supertankers in Pacific Coast of Panama Potentially can happen, for North Asia / China / Japan, but at different cost curves of crude oil and seaborne shipment EIA, June 30 th, 2016: Panama Canal expansion unlikely to significantly change crude oil, petroleum product flows KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 22

23 LNG Tanker World Fleet (# of Vessels >50,000 cbm) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 23

24 LNG Seaborne Trade (mil tons) KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 24

25 Panama Canal LNG Tanker Canal Dues KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. June 2016 Page 25

26 Panama Canal LNG Tanker Canal Dues KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. June 2016 Page 26

27 Transport Costs for LNG (160,000 cbm) from USG to Japan Slide for comparison purposes only. Otherwise, exceptionally low shipping cost reflect weakest freight market and also low bunkering expense. KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 27

28 Thoughts on LNG and Panama Canal Transits U.S. natural gas discoveries in last decade have been a game changer Countries of the Pacific Rim likely major buyers of US LNG over time LNG trading is moving away from train to spot training (similar to crude oil) Most of the LNG tankers at present are owned by independent shipowners, intended for spot market trading Transiting the Panama Canal makes economic sense for LNG tankers Most economic route, even in historically weak times Savings on trade finance costs, Capex for expensive cargoes and vessels Corporate Social Responsibility by lowering emissions, etc Transiting the Panama Canal makes also sense for newly developed large LPG Tankers, Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC) and also ethane Tankers The expanded Panama Canal likely to a have symbiotic relationship with development of natural gas markets and exports from North America Possible competition: circumnavigating North America via the Arctic (Northwest or Northeast Passage) in the future KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 28

29 Agenda Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Introduction The Old Panama Canal Shipping Market Overview The New Panama Canal and the US Energy Markets Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co.: Contact Information KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 29

30 Contact Details Karatzas Marine Advisors & Co. International Maritime Consultancy, Shipping Finance Advisory & Ship-brokerage Headquarters: One World Financial Center, 30 th Floor 200 Liberty Street New York, NY USA Germany Office: Neuer Wall Hamburg USA (New York City): GERMANY (Hamburg): Web: KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016

31 Thank you for your attention! For Current Commentary on Shipping Finance, Please Feel Free to Visit Our Blog at References and Data Sources: EIA, The Panama Canal Authority, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Maritime Executive, gcaptain, Clarksons Research, Karatzas Marine Advisors. KARATZAS MARINE ADVISORS & Co. July 2016 Page 31