Stephen S Fitzroy Economic Development Research Group, Inc.

Transcription

1 Stephen S Fitzroy Economic Development Research Group, Inc. 1

2 Suez Canal and US West Coast Competition Caribbean Transshipments Competition from Canadian and Mexican Ports Vessel Economics and Operations Measures of US Port Capacity Changes in Landside Logistics US Energy and Export Policy What We Should Expect 2

3 Transpacific Routes Suez Routes US East Coast Routes Transshipment Hubs 3

4 Source: Maersk Group,

5 Metric Tonnes 5

6 Google Maps, April

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8 Source: Panama Canal Authority, Canal Expansion Program Components Report, p. 2, 2011, available at 8

9 Mariel 9

10 Marine transshipment hubs function in several ways: Like the air hub and spoke system allows for more efficient operation of larger vessels based on smaller feeders Vessel loads can be reconfigured while cargo is in transit very important for logistics management Costs for transfers are low relative to US ports Locations are directly on routes to/from Panama Canal and US East Coast or Europe 10

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13 Emerging Low-Production Costs Manufacturing: Mexico, Indonesia, India, Thailand Competitive to US Domestic Costs (+/-5%): Eastern China, South Korea, Taiwan Russia, Poland, Czech Republic Higher Relative Costs (>15%): Western Europe: Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden Brazil, Australia Non-Structural Factors Include Exchange Rates 13

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15 Canadian ports, especially on West Coast, have drawn a large share to US-bound Cargo Productivity and connections to US Midwest are keys Mexican ports are emerging as low-cost alternatives Less congestion and strengthening rail links to Central US markets Emergence of manufacturing and near-shoring in Mexico may combine with lower labor costs to stimulate shipment of intermediate goods through Mexico 15

16 Larger vessels (up to 18,000 TEUs) have begun calling of US West Coast ports this year. 13,000 TEU vessels now calling on NY and VA Ports US East Coast is being served by Suez from Asia Railroad pricing margins for mini-land bridge operations Pooling of cargoes by alliances will accelerate this trend Operating cost will decline well before Panama Canal expansion is complete Low fuel costs may stimulate faster sailing times 16

17 Move to larger vessels (13,000 to 18,000TEUs) driven by operating costs and thin profit margins Savings can range from 40% to 60% per slot compared to 5000 TEUs and under Low fuel costs may change dynamics if they persist Cascading has already begun Moving larger vessels into current rotations Redeploying smaller vessels (6,000 to 9,000 TEUs) New Alliances (2M, Ocean Three, G6 and CKYHE) poised to battle for market share Members will consolidate loads and routes Fewer calls, but larger volume discharges Vessel composition varies affecting economics of speed 17

18 Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) Bunker Prices Low Sulfur Fuel (ECA-Compliant) Bunkerworld Index: Main Engine Oil (380cst) Bunker Fuel Source: Bunkerworld, January Bunkerworld Index: Low Sulfur (0.1%) ECA Fuel Source: Bunkerworld, January

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21 Lower Relative Costs for Containerized Cargo Between Southwest Asia and US East Coast Major shifts of container volumes to US East Coast (via Suez) for low value, non-perishable goods Greater Export Opportunities for US Bulk Commodities Larger bulk vessels lower US costs Increased US Container Port Services More surge capacity, fewer calls More Demand for Landside Road, Rail and Distribution Center Capacity Move containers to inland markets 21

22 More On-Dock Rail, Intermodal and Inland Port Operations Supporting Major Container Ports Accommodate surge loads and expand market access Greater emphasis on value-added logistics services Intensifying Use of Transload Facilities At or Near Ports Convert cargo from 40-foot international to 53-foot domestic loads Accelerating Trend Towards both Larger and Smaller Distribution Centers Larger DCs near ports to redirect imports Smaller regional DCs to handle same-day fulfillment 22

23 Panama Canal Tolls Transshipment Costs Port Charges Terminal Operator Costs Rail Transportation Costs Drayage and Chassis Management Net Cost Savings Accruing to Shippers: 0? $100 23

24 Trade Agreements Affect Volumes and Prices TPP (Trans-Pacific) TTIP (Trans-Atlantic) Bi-Lateral (Columbia, South Korea, Panama) Commodities Most Likely Affected: Agriculture Corn Soybeans Energy LNG Natural Gas Liquids Coal 24

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26 Source: Association of American Railroads, May

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32 Source: US Port and Inland Waterways Modernization: Preparing for Post Panamax Vessels, Institute for Water Resources, US Army Corps of Engineers,

33 Source: Economic Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook, April

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35 Likely Unlikely Cascading to larger container vessels More rapidly than expected, but not due to the Panama Canal More competitive US exports Driven by reduced costs for deep draft bulk vessels and emerging LNG/Energy More emphasis on logistics and supply chain innovations To handle container surges in larger ports) 35 Big savings for shippers Most captured by TSPs Major shifts of containerized cargoes to US East Coast ports Re-shoring of traditional manufacturing Near-shoring may shorten supply chains for US Major highway investments Alternatives Rail/Barge should be considered

36 Contact: Stephen Fitzroy To access the library of past EDR Group Papers, Projects and Presentations: 36