Global energy demand is expected to grow by 25-40% to 2030, but with high uncertainty

Transcription

1 Global energy demand is expected to grow by 25-40% to 2030, but with high uncertainty Global primary energy demand 1000 TWh GEA EI IEA CP BP IEA NP GEA Mix Base IEA SOURCE: 1990 to 2011 from IEA World Energy Outlook scenarios from IEA World Energy Outlook 2013, British Petroleum, Global Energy Assessment, US EIA International Energy Outlook 2013, New Climate Economy team analysis for energy productivity

2 Increased energy use is a prerequisite for development and growth, but there is little improvement above a certain level HDI Clear relationship between energy consumption and development to c. 30,000 kwh/person per year Bangladesh Tajikistan Namibia Senegal Cambodia Sri Lanka Peru Tunisia Philippines Indonesia Hong Kong Mexico Costa Rica Uruguay Pakistan Nigeria Belgium Ireland Germany Australia United Kingdom Slovakia Ukraine Oman China Turkmenistan Thailand Turkey South Africa Iraq Little / no increase above 30,000 kwh/person? Kuwait Iceland Qatar United States Luxembourg 0.4 Ethiopia Zimbabwe Mozambique 0.0 1,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 SOURCE: BP energy statistics 2013, UNDP Human Development Index, NCE analysis kwh / person / year (log scale)

3 Cross-country relationship between energy prices and energy intensity is close to -1 Average energy price $/toe ε= -1; 6% of GDP Source: Newbery (2003), Grubb (2014) Energy intensity kgoe / $2005 GDP

4 Little sign of leapfrogging development and growth may be more energy intensive than we hope Energy consumption per capita vs. income per capita GJ per capita / USD (PPP) per capita Developing (current) Developed (past) Kazakhstan Finland Belarus Iran Ukraine Romania South Africa France Israel Bulgaria Thailand Hungary Serbia Poland Philippines China Argentina Brazil Ireland Indonesia Chile Japan DR Congo Libya Malaysia Singapore Nigeria Syria Ecuador Algeria Italy Egypt Tanzania Vietnam Uganda Pakistan Taiwan Mexico Colombia Peru Ethiopia South Korea India Spain Greece Kenya Morocco Portugal Turkey Yemen Angola Bangladesh Oman Sudan GDP Source: World Bank Development indicators, IEA, van Benthem (2010)

5 Looking back: China has increased energy use in the last 15 years 3 times more than had been expected China energy demand forecasts and actual demand Primary energy demand, thousand TWh per year % % Energy projections for China for underestimat ed growth by a factor three Actual demand demand projected in 2000 Actual 2010 demand Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2000, IEA World Energy outlook 2013

6 Looking forward: India s electricity generation in 25 years could grow by a factor three or five depending on scenario India electricity demand scenarios, 2012 and ,000 TWh p.a. Range due to efficiency x5 0.8 x3 Current EIA IEO consumption baseline PC Heroic effort IEA 450 Scenario PC Aggressive effort IEA New Policies Scenario Delta between scenarios is twice as large as current consumption PC Determined effort IEA Current Policies Scenario PC Least Effort Sources: Indian Planning Commission, India Energy Security Scenarios, International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2012; US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2013

7 Our understanding of the damage caused by air pollution has been changing rapidly WHO estimated global deaths from air pollution Million deaths per year Indoor Outdoor estimate 2014 estimate Sources: Ostro (2004), Lim et al (2014)

8 Energy changing: energy security of coal can no longer be taken for granted Ranges for domestic coal production and demand scenarios in India and China, , absent change in policies Million tonnes of coal Source: New Climate Economy (2014)

9 Energy changing: solar costs have fallen dramatically, and can compete with fossil fuels on the utility scale in very favorable circumstances Indicative solar PV costs over time USD/MWh 1,300 1,200 Solar PV Current fossil fuel range, indicative Best utility-scale project, ,100 1, Sources: Citi Research 2012; IEA World Energy Outlook 2013; G. F Nemet,(2006)

10 New Climate Economy China report Even with the strictest end-of-pipe treatment measures, almost half of Chinese cities risk failing to meet air quality standards in Targets for air quality are only achievable through a combination of accelerated economic restructuring, energy conservation, fuel switching and environmental policy." New Climate Economy China Report, 2014

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